On point as usual CR. Now lets just hope there is still some type of Structured finance & securitization left after all this or else there will be a lot more unemployed people. I think more oversight could help.
The thing about the revisions that would seem to bear additional consideration is that they went back and gave a haircut to growth in the 2005-2007 timeframe - anyone seen the numbers?
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may have tipped into a recession in the last three months of 2007 as consumer spending slowed more than previously estimated and the housing slump worsened, revised government figures showed.
The world's largest economy contracted at a 0.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a previously reported 0.6 percent gain, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Growth for the period from 2005 through 2007 was also trimmed.
CR, what is the reason for such large variations between initial estimates and final revisions ? Are there such variations during periods of economic prosperity ? How do monthly GDP figures fit into this picture ?
Now lets just hope there is still some type of Structured finance & securitization left after all this or else there will be a lot more unemployed people. I think more oversight could help.
I doubt it. We had oversight (nominally) in the mortgage market and that didn't work out so well.
The apologists will now be all over themselves to explain how soft this "recession is, and how shallow, compared to previous versions. But I wonder if this isn't an apples to oranges comparison--we've never been so far in debt before (the debt of ~$10tn is now approaching the GDP--has that ever happened?), so the quiver only contains crooked shafts and blunt points.
And one of the archer's arms got blown off by an IED in Iraq...
TED spread remains above 100 bps, 111 bps at the moment...
CP 30 day spread is creeping back up again, it came down to a higher low around 70 bps after spiking to about 110 bps, currently in the 85 bps neighborhood...
Total CP outstanding has contracted for four weeks running on a seasonally adjusted basis (non adjusted numbers are positive, which suggests that there should be a materially greater ramp up underway in CP outstandings)...
To answer your question from previous thread (so I know you'll see it)
The volume doesn't really matter any longer since we've seen this sort of thing for well over a year. low volume moves up and down tell me that the institutions are the ones in control. The bigger news (to me) is that Thain continues to have a free pass. "we're adequately capitalized and then Poof!! instant dilution to the tune of 38% (if you can actually believe the WSJ numbers)..btw what a sad rag that has become.....have not read one in years and I really know why now. Rupert's rag deserves to be used as toilet paper at this point.
LV traffic?? can't really say as I was never out when it was usually a problem. Can confirm that most airport taxis do run on CNG....to answer a previous question.
Spoke to a pit boss from Wynne...the whales are all but extinct...they exist but have not "surfaced" this summer. Said (according to his experience) the gaming boon is all but over. Sat night you could have your pick on where you sat (not an easy task in the past) and the high limit tables were populated with sleepy staff members.....just one man's observation though.
The news for today's market is the $30+ billion of TIO slosh to offset the employment numbers...and the broad range of downward revisions to prior GDP estimates, consumer spending and personal income released this morning.
But oh yeah, that 1.9% GDP fueled by additional government borrowing is the foundation for a solid growth story...
Employee compensation was reduced by $69 billion, or 0.9 percent, in 2007
That, in the end, is the only number that matters.
That's an average of $700/household, but since only 30% (SWAG) of households have been affected so far, that's more like a $2000 average hit people who have been struggling in this economy have taken.
Not counting the rising energy costs of 2007, either. Gas prices were mostly under $3 in 2006 and mostly over $3 in 2007, at least here in Calif.
Massachusetts sued Merrill Lynch & Co on Thursday, charging the Wall Street firm with fraud over its dealings in the troubled auction-rate securities market.
Anyone else just watch the exclusive CNBC economic summit at the white house? Anyone else feeling sick to their stomach knowing it's our tax dollars paying their salary?
Massachusetts sued Merrill Lynch & Co on Thursday, charging the Wall Street firm with fraud over its dealings in the troubled auction-rate securities market.
Volume just doesn't matter now..and has not for well over a year. The big four are in control and it's pretty obvious. The fact that Thain continues to get a free pass is disgusting....dilute by another 20% (if the published numbers can be believed-I think it's more BTW) and SP goes up........
Traffic in LV was not a factor however I didn't drive during commute times so can't really speak to flows for locals. Heard no complaints though.
Pit boss a the Wynne laments the extinction of the whales (on a large scale IHO) fueled by what you already know. 5$ black jack tables at most higher end casino's during the week..full however not seen in many year's-can confirm.
All those rooms coming on line late in '09 will only exacerbate the problems-from a growth perspective-good for us "plebs." though.
Does anyone have an reasonable explanation why the ATA (American Trucking Associations') Truck Tonnage Index has posted 8 straight months of y/y gains with Tuesdays report of June being the strongest increase in over three years. This seems counterintuitive to me given the slowing U.S. economy. Thanks in advance.
The silver lining in this report is that inventory drawdown was cited as a significant factor in the weaker than expect growth number. This is consistent with what I am seeing in the semiconductor industry; semiconductor suppliers are being very careful to keep inventories in line.
I say this is good news because the economy will be very sensitive to a pickup in activity as businesses will not be able to fill demand from inventory. Our global economy is becoming much more efficient than in previous cycles. This should dampen the pain.
John Williams from Shadowstats notes that the deflator used for Q2 GDP was 1.1% annualized, the lowest in 10 years. Adjusting tin-foil colander hat...pretty freaking amazing...
Uh, didn't the market rocket up yesterday largely on rumors of an uptick in the employment numbers from ADP? And shouldn't the market be down by the same amount today? (I know, I know, it doesn't work like that, I'm just sayin')
I've been showing Dec 2007 as the start of the recession on most of my graphs.
Yeah, well, I was posting in December that recession was here, as indicated by our reliable business model - when the phone stops ringing, the economy is close to or in recession. Happens every time.
While the economists are sitting in their lofty towers precisely measuring herd behavior from a distance, I am in that herd observing first-hand and close-up.
If you saw what I posted about CRE last night it's no different than SFR pricing...still in complete fantasyland.
I had a "fed moment" on Weds....the last time I was there was I was leaving (on a Weds.) and that was when the whole BSC thing was happening and the creation of the alphabet soup auctions. And of course I left on a Weds this time and low and behold the whole thing gets extended and presented as salve.....so the next time I go and I leave on a weds. you'll all know that the Fed will do something.....
I just got a call out of the blue from Lowe's this morning; when I asked the guy what's up, he said he was just calling to say "thank you for shopping at Lowe's."
I.E., "For the love of God, pleasepleasePLEASE come back and spend some more moneywe're dyin' here!!"
The US economy has become the fat, loud, obnoxious guy at the gym. We're obviously in bad shape, but we're determined to fake it anyway. And nobody better dare notice.
So we pull on the Under Armour stretchy shirt, hold our arms away from our body just a bit, tilt the head back, and swagger around a while. Look our way, and you'll MAYBE get a raised chin and a "sup." We're fat as hell, but we act muscled and fit. Occasionally, we'll jerk some weight around in a completely reckless manner and accomplish nothing but make a bunch of noise anyway. But we've got the glare down...and the shirt...and hey, we're in the gym, so you know we're bad ass.
All about role-playing, fakery, and willful delusion....
Just got back from Lake Winnepesaukee, NH (big second-home market for well-off New Englanders). Can't say I saw a lot of for sale signs, but did hear plenty of anecdotes from reliable sources about slowing restaurant traffic, fewer power boats on the lake, etc.
I say this is good news because the economy will be very sensitive to a pickup in activity as businesses will not be able to fill demand from inventory. Our global economy is becoming much more efficient than in previous cycles. This should dampen the pain.
We've gotten much better at inventory management, unfortunately that goes totally out the window with easy credit.
I just saw that in my home town hotel occupancies are down about 10% from last year, and yet they're building a new hotel on every street corner.
Despite all our great new inventory management technology we still managed to get the mother of all inventory excesses in housing (housing is just a manufactured good, no reason inventory management techniques shouldn't work there too, right?).
Similar things may be happening with industrial capacity and commodities overseas where countries are being flooded with hot money.
Easy credit takes everything we've learned about business and turns it on it's head. Proven methods no longer matter when they're abandoned en masse.
Full disclosure I drive a Honda...Yes I have arrived. anyways I called the dealer last week now for a price, now they call twice a day. Honds is doing relatively well (esp in SF bay ARea)so if they aren't selling cars then I hate to see the big three's sales.
TED spread remains above 100 bps, 111 bps at the moment...
CP 30 day spread is creeping back up again, it came down to a higher low around 70 bps after spiking to about 110 bps, currently in the 85 bps neighborhood...
Those aren't very distressing numbers though. The market is predicting a moderate credit crunch producing a mild recession. CP spreads have been much higher in previous recessions. The TED spread hasn't, but that's because we haven't seen a credit crunch/panic-driven recession since 1933. I'm sure that a similar measure would have been much higher in the great panics of the 1800's.
10% chance that we aren't in recession in Q4, the markets won't likely tank until Jan 08(though the action during the dog trading days of August will be telling.) How bad it gets from there, I have no idea.
Alec | 05.31.07 - 1:20 pm
Credit contraction has hit auto substantially, leasing is getting hard and auto finance companies are adjusting underwriting on similar scale as housing..Tight lending,
pti and dti plus fico scores moving downhill fast as consumers are maxing out on inquiries and limits pushing scores lower by the month..
Not billed as currently very distressing numbers, however they remain elevated and using them as the sole basis for determining how the credit contraction concludes seems a bit of stretch given the way the Fed is pulling alphabet soup out of their hat like the Cat in the Hat in "The Cat in the Hat Comes Back" (which has become the ultimate metaphor for me for all this - check how that ends).
OT but Leasing is only dead at the US three (Ford, GM, and Chrysler). Lexus and Honda are doing fine and will push their cars while managing their factories for profit. The US three will have to manage their factories to keep their companies in business (ie in a run off mode). It will be interesting to see how the layoffs (finance, airline, car, home builders, etc) will impact the economy as we go forward. Strange how the government extended an additional 13 weeks of unemployment which should help the economy up to November.
Outsider, remind us, what line of work are you in?
Outsider writes:
I've been showing Dec 2007 as the start of the recession on most of my graphs.
Yeah, well, I was posting in December that recession was here, as indicated by our reliable business model - when the phone stops ringing, the economy is close to or in recession. Happens every time.
While the economists are sitting in their lofty towers precisely measuring herd behavior from a distance, I am in that herd observing first-hand and close-up.
Dave writes:
Does anyone have an reasonable explanation why the ATA (American Trucking Associations') Truck Tonnage Index has posted 8 straight months of y/y gains with Tuesdays report of June being the strongest increase in over three years. This seems counterintuitive to me given the slowing U.S. economy. Thanks in advance.
Dave | 07.31.08 - 10:48 am | #
just a guess, no hard data,
I think many independent operators
who did not count n the total tonnage are out of business. So that tonnage
is being picked-up by larger companies that do report the tonnage.
Also, what happened to the updates on the unemployment revisions -- haven't seen any new info on what happened to all of 2007 and Q1 birth death phantom jobs. Of course I don't expect those revisions to be on the front page of the New York Times or the WSJ, but I thought we would see them here.
AZ: Interior decorating, outside of NYC. Interestingly, not as much affected by housing market swings as by discretionary spending. Very recession sensitive market.
The Argentine government, once admired for trustworthy public information, is now hiding and manipulating official data, which is bad news for economic planning, investment and social aid programs, economists say.
DH, have to agree about the smaller independents folding, and the traffic going to the larger firms. Plus (just a guess), shippers are cutting costs by using cheaper ground service, rather than air freight, when possible.
first
Analysts should start quoting operating GDP ex extraordinary items like Stimulus. S&P does it for the S&P earnings, why not GDP?
Below the fold weakness in unemployment statistics (hat tip Naked Capitalism)...
Underemployment Hits Record as Companies Cut Hours
On point as usual CR. Now lets just hope there is still some type of Structured finance & securitization left after all this or else there will be a lot more unemployed people. I think more oversight could help.
The thing about the revisions that would seem to bear additional consideration is that they went back and gave a haircut to growth in the 2005-2007 timeframe - anyone seen the numbers?
U.S. Recession May Have Begun in Last Quarter of 2007 (Update1)
By Timothy R. Homan
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may have tipped into a recession in the last three months of 2007 as consumer spending slowed more than previously estimated and the housing slump worsened, revised government figures showed.
The world's largest economy contracted at a 0.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a previously reported 0.6 percent gain, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Growth for the period from 2005 through 2007 was also trimmed.
[snip]
But Jim Cramer called BOTTOM!!!!
He got out the bear meat slicer!
===================================
"He has NO idea....."
CR, what is the reason for such large variations between initial estimates and final revisions ? Are there such variations during periods of economic prosperity ? How do monthly GDP figures fit into this picture ?
Regards,
O, Sebastian? Sebastian? Hellooo?
So where is this second quarter "growth" coming from? Which sectors of the economy are seeing an expansion?
But...but.. my Wright Model B... my Wright Model B ...[wanders off murmuring]
So the whitehouse crime syndicate has been lying about recession all along??
What else have the reklepticans been lying about?
sniglet,repo men,B attorneys,collection agencies,process servers etc.
Nice call, CR!
Haloscan seems to be misbehaving for me. 20+ sec page load times, lots of "internal server error" messages, anyone else have problems ?
Now lets just hope there is still some type of Structured finance & securitization left after all this or else there will be a lot more unemployed people. I think more oversight could help.
I doubt it. We had oversight (nominally) in the mortgage market and that didn't work out so well.
Yep. Youdaman, CR.
The apologists will now be all over themselves to explain how soft this "recession is, and how shallow, compared to previous versions. But I wonder if this isn't an apples to oranges comparison--we've never been so far in debt before (the debt of ~$10tn is now approaching the GDP--has that ever happened?), so the quiver only contains crooked shafts and blunt points.
And one of the archer's arms got blown off by an IED in Iraq...
Other items:
TED spread remains above 100 bps, 111 bps at the moment...
CP 30 day spread is creeping back up again, it came down to a higher low around 70 bps after spiking to about 110 bps, currently in the 85 bps neighborhood...
Total CP outstanding has contracted for four weeks running on a seasonally adjusted basis (non adjusted numbers are positive, which suggests that there should be a materially greater ramp up underway in CP outstandings)...
Just sayi
anyone else have problems ?
It's clean here. (Firefox 3)
And hi Tx. Haven't seen you at HBB of late.
Of course, it took 30sec for my last post to go thru, so never underestimate the power of Murphy.
OT
Tim-
To answer your question from previous thread (so I know you'll see it)
The volume doesn't really matter any longer since we've seen this sort of thing for well over a year. low volume moves up and down tell me that the institutions are the ones in control. The bigger news (to me) is that Thain continues to have a free pass. "we're adequately capitalized and then Poof!! instant dilution to the tune of 38% (if you can actually believe the WSJ numbers)..btw what a sad rag that has become.....have not read one in years and I really know why now. Rupert's rag deserves to be used as toilet paper at this point.
LV traffic?? can't really say as I was never out when it was usually a problem. Can confirm that most airport taxis do run on CNG....to answer a previous question.
Spoke to a pit boss from Wynne...the whales are all but extinct...they exist but have not "surfaced" this summer. Said (according to his experience) the gaming boon is all but over. Sat night you could have your pick on where you sat (not an easy task in the past) and the high limit tables were populated with sleepy staff members.....just one man's observation though.
Ciao
MS
Whoa we keep falling in and put of recession like we keep moving in and out of a bear market...
I am guessing all the other quarters will be revised to show a recession after NOV...
jobless claims keep creeping higher, yet bottom callers abound. This feeds more defaults and capital destruction, more demands on government spending.
Seems a little silly to call bottoms when the elevator is heading lower, to a layman like me.
anyone else have problems?
At first, I got a window pane that just sat there. I closed and opened a new window and it was OK.
Usually this occurs when a site is hosted on a farm and one or more of the servers is hung. You either hit a good server or a bad one.
It seems the economy has been worse than the gov't has been reporting. Who coodanode?
energyecon,
What was the year high on the TEd spread?
So the revision 6 months ago is the news, but the 1.9% growth just reported for Q2'08 is not?
Tim,
Looks like spiked over 200 bps on several occasions...
TED Spread on Bloomberg
So the revision 6 months ago is the news, but the 1.9% growth just reported for Q2'08 is not?
Q2 is preliminary while Q4 07 is the final GDP number after factoring more economic data...
Yeah thats just so strange that the number was revised down.
Very unusual
(Cough)
Thanks for the link... Forgot it was on bloomberg...
drob,
The news for today's market is the $30+ billion of TIO slosh to offset the employment numbers...and the broad range of downward revisions to prior GDP estimates, consumer spending and personal income released this morning.
But oh yeah, that 1.9% GDP fueled by additional government borrowing is the foundation for a solid growth story...
Employee compensation was reduced by $69 billion, or 0.9 percent, in 2007
That, in the end, is the only number that matters.
That's an average of $700/household, but since only 30% (SWAG) of households have been affected so far, that's more like a $2000 average hit people who have been struggling in this economy have taken.
Not counting the rising energy costs of 2007, either. Gas prices were mostly under $3 in 2006 and mostly over $3 in 2007, at least here in Calif.
Massachusetts sued Merrill Lynch & Co on Thursday, charging the Wall Street firm with fraud over its dealings in the troubled auction-rate securities market.
Massachusetts sues Merrill over auction rates
| Reuters
Get those bastards!
Employee compensation was reduced by $69 billion, or 0.9 percent, in 2007
Take out angelo Mozilo and Stan o'Neal and those number get really ugly
Anyone else just watch the exclusive CNBC economic summit at the white house? Anyone else feeling sick to their stomach knowing it's our tax dollars paying their salary?
Massachusetts sued Merrill Lynch & Co on Thursday, charging the Wall Street firm with fraud over its dealings in the troubled auction-rate securities market.
Page Not Found | Reuters.com
b...125633020080731
Paper Tigers, hidden regulators
Tim-
To answer your question from previous thread...
Volume just doesn't matter now..and has not for well over a year. The big four are in control and it's pretty obvious. The fact that Thain continues to get a free pass is disgusting....dilute by another 20% (if the published numbers can be believed-I think it's more BTW) and SP goes up........
Traffic in LV was not a factor however I didn't drive during commute times so can't really speak to flows for locals. Heard no complaints though.
Pit boss a the Wynne laments the extinction of the whales (on a large scale IHO) fueled by what you already know. 5$ black jack tables at most higher end casino's during the week..full however not seen in many year's-can confirm.
All those rooms coming on line late in '09 will only exacerbate the problems-from a growth perspective-good for us "plebs." though.
Ciao
MS
Does anyone have an reasonable explanation why the ATA (American Trucking Associations') Truck Tonnage Index has posted 8 straight months of y/y gains with Tuesdays report of June being the strongest increase in over three years. This seems counterintuitive to me given the slowing U.S. economy. Thanks in advance.
OK, OK...That growth we told you about? It was crap. Yes, yes...we we're in a recession.
But, good news! This quarter we grew at almost 2%! The recession that we never had is now over!
I'm calling BS. What grew? Government spending?
If I run up almost $9,000 on my Visa this month, am I on track to make $100k?
MS, thanks for the info. Haloscan went down...
Captain Ahab has landed in Treasure Island
2nd Q was all stimulus checks. looks for Q1 to be revised down and Q3 to be negative (significant inventory reductions)
The silver lining in this report is that inventory drawdown was cited as a significant factor in the weaker than expect growth number. This is consistent with what I am seeing in the semiconductor industry; semiconductor suppliers are being very careful to keep inventories in line.
I say this is good news because the economy will be very sensitive to a pickup in activity as businesses will not be able to fill demand from inventory. Our global economy is becoming much more efficient than in previous cycles. This should dampen the pain.
CSC
The recession is over and so is the bear market. Yeah!!!!
I ran up 50k on my wamu mastercard and oh yeah I am not going to pay it back. At this pace I will make 95k
John Williams from Shadowstats notes that the deflator used for Q2 GDP was 1.1% annualized, the lowest in 10 years. Adjusting tin-foil colander hat...pretty freaking amazing...
Uh, didn't the market rocket up yesterday largely on rumors of an uptick in the employment numbers from ADP? And shouldn't the market be down by the same amount today? (I know, I know, it doesn't work like that, I'm just sayin')
I've been showing Dec 2007 as the start of the recession on most of my graphs.
Yeah, well, I was posting in December that recession was here, as indicated by our reliable business model - when the phone stops ringing, the economy is close to or in recession. Happens every time.
While the economists are sitting in their lofty towers precisely measuring herd behavior from a distance, I am in that herd observing first-hand and close-up.
Great piece by MW. Must watch.
Video - CNBC.com
"Captain Ahab has landed in Treasure Island"
And just about everywhere else too....
If you saw what I posted about CRE last night it's no different than SFR pricing...still in complete fantasyland.
I had a "fed moment" on Weds....the last time I was there was I was leaving (on a Weds.) and that was when the whole BSC thing was happening and the creation of the alphabet soup auctions. And of course I left on a Weds this time and low and behold the whole thing gets extended and presented as salve.....so the next time I go and I leave on a weds. you'll all know that the Fed will do something.....
Ciao
MS
bluestatedon,
Wait til the end of the week.
I just got a call out of the blue from Lowe's this morning; when I asked the guy what's up, he said he was just calling to say "thank you for shopping at Lowe's."
I.E., "For the love of God, pleasepleasePLEASE come back and spend some more moneywe're dyin' here!!"
The US economy has become the fat, loud, obnoxious guy at the gym. We're obviously in bad shape, but we're determined to fake it anyway. And nobody better dare notice.
So we pull on the Under Armour stretchy shirt, hold our arms away from our body just a bit, tilt the head back, and swagger around a while. Look our way, and you'll MAYBE get a raised chin and a "sup." We're fat as hell, but we act muscled and fit. Occasionally, we'll jerk some weight around in a completely reckless manner and accomplish nothing but make a bunch of noise anyway. But we've got the glare down...and the shirt...and hey, we're in the gym, so you know we're bad ass.
All about role-playing, fakery, and willful delusion....
Diogenes of Sinope was right. Totally right.
Just got back from Lake Winnepesaukee, NH (big second-home market for well-off New Englanders). Can't say I saw a lot of for sale signs, but did hear plenty of anecdotes from reliable sources about slowing restaurant traffic, fewer power boats on the lake, etc.
I say this is good news because the economy will be very sensitive to a pickup in activity as businesses will not be able to fill demand from inventory. Our global economy is becoming much more efficient than in previous cycles. This should dampen the pain.
We've gotten much better at inventory management, unfortunately that goes totally out the window with easy credit.
I just saw that in my home town hotel occupancies are down about 10% from last year, and yet they're building a new hotel on every street corner.
Despite all our great new inventory management technology we still managed to get the mother of all inventory excesses in housing (housing is just a manufactured good, no reason inventory management techniques shouldn't work there too, right?).
Similar things may be happening with industrial capacity and commodities overseas where countries are being flooded with hot money.
Easy credit takes everything we've learned about business and turns it on it's head. Proven methods no longer matter when they're abandoned en masse.
Full disclosure I drive a Honda...Yes I have arrived. anyways I called the dealer last week now for a price, now they call twice a day. Honds is doing relatively well (esp in SF bay ARea)so if they aren't selling cars then I hate to see the big three's sales.
TED spread remains above 100 bps, 111 bps at the moment...
CP 30 day spread is creeping back up again, it came down to a higher low around 70 bps after spiking to about 110 bps, currently in the 85 bps neighborhood...
Those aren't very distressing numbers though. The market is predicting a moderate credit crunch producing a mild recession. CP spreads have been much higher in previous recessions. The TED spread hasn't, but that's because we haven't seen a credit crunch/panic-driven recession since 1933. I'm sure that a similar measure would have been much higher in the great panics of the 1800's.
Going into the wayback machine:
10% chance that we aren't in recession in Q4, the markets won't likely tank until Jan 08(though the action during the dog trading days of August will be telling.) How bad it gets from there, I have no idea.
Alec | 05.31.07 - 1:20 pm
CSC Great analogy. you kill me. Thanks
Tim,
Credit contraction has hit auto substantially, leasing is getting hard and auto finance companies are adjusting underwriting on similar scale as housing..Tight lending,
pti and dti plus fico scores moving downhill fast as consumers are maxing out on inquiries and limits pushing scores lower by the month..
Auto is in depression...
FE,
Not billed as currently very distressing numbers, however they remain elevated and using them as the sole basis for determining how the credit contraction concludes seems a bit of stretch given the way the Fed is pulling alphabet soup out of their hat like the Cat in the Hat in "The Cat in the Hat Comes Back" (which has become the ultimate metaphor for me for all this - check how that ends).
OT but Leasing is only dead at the US three (Ford, GM, and Chrysler). Lexus and Honda are doing fine and will push their cars while managing their factories for profit. The US three will have to manage their factories to keep their companies in business (ie in a run off mode). It will be interesting to see how the layoffs (finance, airline, car, home builders, etc) will impact the economy as we go forward. Strange how the government extended an additional 13 weeks of unemployment which should help the economy up to November.
Outsider, remind us, what line of work are you in?
Outsider writes:
I've been showing Dec 2007 as the start of the recession on most of my graphs.
Yeah, well, I was posting in December that recession was here, as indicated by our reliable business model - when the phone stops ringing, the economy is close to or in recession. Happens every time.
While the economists are sitting in their lofty towers precisely measuring herd behavior from a distance, I am in that herd observing first-hand and close-up.
Dave writes:
Does anyone have an reasonable explanation why the ATA (American Trucking Associations') Truck Tonnage Index has posted 8 straight months of y/y gains with Tuesdays report of June being the strongest increase in over three years. This seems counterintuitive to me given the slowing U.S. economy. Thanks in advance.
Dave | 07.31.08 - 10:48 am | #
just a guess, no hard data,
I think many independent operators
who did not count n the total tonnage are out of business. So that tonnage
is being picked-up by larger companies that do report the tonnage.
O&O truckers are getting slaughtered.
Also, what happened to the updates on the unemployment revisions -- haven't seen any new info on what happened to all of 2007 and Q1 birth death phantom jobs. Of course I don't expect those revisions to be on the front page of the New York Times or the WSJ, but I thought we would see them here.
Txchick57 writes:
So the whitehouse crime syndicate has been lying about recession all along??
What else have the reklepticans been lying about?
Txchick57 | 07.
31.08 - 10:17 am |
you want the truth? we can't handle the truth.
Txchick57 writes:
So the whitehouse crime syndicate has been lying about recession all along??
What else have the reklepticans been lying about?
Txchick57 | 07.
31.08 - 10:17 am |
you want the truth? we can't handle the truth.
Diogenes of Sinope was right. Totally right.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 07.31.08 - 11:10 am
"you can make a eunuch out of a man, but not a man out of a eunuch"
AZ: Interior decorating, outside of NYC. Interestingly, not as much affected by housing market swings as by discretionary spending. Very recession sensitive market.
The Argentine government, once admired for trustworthy public information, is now hiding and manipulating official data, which is bad news for economic planning, investment and social aid programs, economists say.
Missing Argentine data hits government credibility
| Reuters
Sounds a lot like the US.
"O, Sebastian? Sebastian? Hellooo?"
That little pump monkey is off in the bushes playing with himself. Couple more weeks pump monkey, I'm coming after your ass don't forget to sell.
From the Bloomberg article: "Growth for the period from 2005 through 2007 was also trimmed."
They are rewriting years of history.
Wait for Greenspan, Bernanke, etc. to shout, "April Fools!"
(Halo bugginess makes this my 4th try to post this.)
Vikram writes"Haloscan seems to be misbehaving for me."
That's probably just Sheila routing everything through her FDIC bunker.
FRED writes:"Analysts should start quoting operating GDP ex extraordinary items like Stimulus."
Analysts should report GDP ex pixie dust.
Maybe the gov. is lowering past figures now so it soon can claim a "recovery"/"upturn" before the election.
Impossible!
There was no recession, and the recession is over!
Now, get back to spending beyond your means like good consumers!
"Markel writes:
O, Sebastian? Sebastian? Hellooo?
Markel | 07.31.08 - 10:10 am | #"
Yeah, dude, come out and take your well-deserved thumping.
Or, has Mr. Market already served that up?
Dave and DH,
DH, have to agree about the smaller independents folding, and the traffic going to the larger firms. Plus (just a guess), shippers are cutting costs by using cheaper ground service, rather than air freight, when possible.
old trader
Disclosure: Long UPS