I like this entry. Do any of you also follow any indices, securities or derivatives tied to CRE? Thanks.
Btw, both Professor Hamilton and I give props to Tanta right here on his blog in which I also suggest a (seemingly?) simple way to derive a national index of the incidence of mortgage fraud:
CR thus intones sagely: Lodging is one of the three key components of non-residential investment that I expect to decline sharply. The other two are office buildings and multimerchandise shopping (malls!).
Why don't you think manufacturing/industrial or service or (and this is huge) governmental commercial spaces are less exposed?
As a business traveler who travels (planes and hotels) at least 3 out of 4 weeks, I am still not seeing much of a slow down. Flew down to San Diego this week and last (planes full) and the hotel that is my first choice was booked both times, rates at second choice around $170. This is not in the downtown or beach area (Rancho Bernardo). Still seeing families and business travelers, just got back from Florida and lots of tourist activity there. Believe me I am very bearish and I keep waiting to see the signs, just not where I am traveling....FWIW
I am seeing hugely discounted rates in hotels in Las Vegas.
Strip hotels as low as $29/night
5 star strip hotels 700+sqft rooms for $169/night
Those 5 star rooms were built for an average of $350/night.
There is something like another 40,000 rooms coming online this year too.
According to MSNBC, over half the casino-owned hotels in the city are offering rates of $50 per night or below. Yes, that type of price is usually reserved for roadside motels where you can also choose to pay by the hour. Even high end, established names like Luxor and MGM Grand have rooms available for under $100 per night.
Halo scan ate my comment but as a business traveler on planes and hotels 3 weeks a month, I am not seeing much of a slowdown where I have been the last 3 months, San Diego, Florida, Nashville, full planes and booked hotels...when are these people going to max out their credit cards and stay home?
GirlBear,
"Full planes" are no longer economic indicators. Planes are "full" because capacity is waaay down. I can't prove it but it looks like airlines like Qantas are actually canceling flights because of low ridership. Understand also that $4 gas is mode shifting away from POV travel.
As a business traveler who travels (planes and hotels) at least 3 out of 4 weeks, I am still not seeing much of a slow down. Flew down to San Diego this week and last (planes full) and the hotel that is my first choice was booked both times, rates at second choice around $170. This is not in the downtown or beach area (Rancho Bernardo). Still seeing families and business travelers, just got back from Florida and lots of tourist activity there. Believe me I am very bearish and I keep waiting to see the signs, just not where I am traveling....FWIW
girlbear, look at the occupancy chart here. It seems to support your observation about San Diego:
History repeats itself once again. I remember this occurring in previous cycles. Bad for recent investors in the hotel sector. But the excess supply will lower hotel rates. I look forward to enjoying this when I travel.
We've got a bunch of new hotels in our area, lots of extended stays. There is one downtown near our elevated highway. We like to play a game when we drive over it which involves counting the cars in the parking lot. Last time I counted to three. It is brand new. I"m not sure how it can last.
And occupancy rates around here were already in the low 50's.
Do any of you also follow any indices, securities or derivatives tied to CRE? Thanks.
I believe many here follow IYR and its double short SRS. IYR holds a lot of hotel REITs. Along with malls and office building REITs. I don't think anyone here invests in IYR. Many invest in SRS, myself included.
Some companies are instituting stricter business travel policies. A business trip needs a few more authorization signatures from the upper management and such.
Videoconferencing is getting really hot. Firms think it's a good cost-cutting investment.
Hotel I stay at in LA has been jam packed with Europeans for the past year. If the eurozone slowdown keeps running that support should wane. That would lead to even steeper declines...
No sympathy. If the emergence of "Condotels" as investment opportunities isn't ringing the bell then there's no helping you.
That said, THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT. Different means worse. Destination locations are being disintermediated. Recreational and organizational concentrations are no longer the cash cows they once were. What was that massive Las Vegas computer thingy of the late 1990s? I forget.
The fawning by the MSM over Hank Paulson as the "savior of Wall Street" is eerily familiar to the adulation given to Don Rumsfeld after 9/11. We all saw how well that turned out.
The unemployment rate is a relatively modest 5.5%. But that's because companies have figured out how to convert full-time employees who have benefits like health care into part-time ones who lack benefits and whose hours can be cut back at will. This is a great deal for companies and a lousy one for workers. And it is ultimately bad for investors.
As someone who does a lot of business travel into the darkest heart of rural flyover country, the hotel boom has been a godsend.
I can't believe the number of Holiday Inn express / hilton garden inn / hyatt place etc that have sprung up in the last few years in really poor corners of the US.
From CR's graph, it looks like Lodging construction is typically about 10% of total Non-Res construction.
But in the 2006-2008 period, Lodging grew $25B while Non-Res ex Lodging grew only $100B. Lodging growth added substantally disproportionally (25% vs 10%) to Non-Res growth.
If Lodging drops back even to typical $15-20B it will impact Non-Res much more than its nominal 10% contribution.
From CR's graph, it looks like Lodging construction is typically about 10% of total Non-Res construction.
But in the 2006-2008 period, Lodging grew $25B while Non-Res ex Lodging grew only $100B. Lodging growth added substantally disproportionally (25% vs 10%) to Non-Res growth.
If Lodging drops back even to typical $15-20B it will impact Non-Res much more than its nominal 10% contribution.
Rob Dawg is right on- ""Full planes" are no longer economic indicators. Planes are "full" because capacity is waaay down."
Went SF to Maui earlier this month and the United flight was packed. I was shocked since I believe this economy is going down in flames. Then I remembered that we have lost ATA and Aloha Airlines. That is hundreds of seats lost. Less carriers = full flights. Now, back to the recession/depression.
Just returned from Cancun/Cozumel. Rows of condo projects and unfinished hotels, land development. Cranes everywhere. They thought the hurricane that hit there years ago was the low point. They are going to get jammed now! I project years of unfinished and dilapidated abandoned projects. Downtown they are still trying to hawk Tiffany's, Harley Davidson's, high end luxury goods. It is going to be a blood bath. Never have I seen such an impoverished place make such a huge bet on just one business model: Tourism. Same tourism financed out of home equity withdrawal and paper profits. UGLY!
In addition to new hotel development, there's a lot of conversion/upgrades going on. Here in Portland, the Hotel Modera right downtown opened Memorial Day, after a pricey redo of the former Day's Inn (woohoo!). Others: Ace Hotel; The Nines by Sage/Starwood Luxury Collection - the top nine floors on top of the just re-done Macy's on the first five floors. "The Nines has been described as 'nostalgic modern'..." My bet it will be described as mostly empty.
Fire away.....if it's up and over 50dma with avg. ( or slightly more) volume than that's about all you can do. Set-ups have been a little disappointing
as of late. Just watch it and set an appropriate stop.
Good Luck....
Doing yardwork today...in and out of the office.
I see someone thought WM was a decent buy.....woohoo!
$29 a night is about $1000 per month, with taxes, which is likely a bit less than the mortgage payment on a reset ARM or subprime...perhaps the crash in hotel occupancy will turn out to be useful for foreclosed homeowners.
Back from LV yesterday and have observed that the projects are still being worked on as if it were '02-'05.
Almost 13k rooms coming online by the end of next year (City Center+ Fashion Island??-can't remember the project name).
CC project has really slowed down and I saw a news piece that some are questioning the ability to secure the remaining portion of financing to complete it (about $2.5B still needed) Of course they said they were "hopeful" that a "white knight" would help them out.....mentioned Dubai and U.A.E looking at this "fantastic opportunity"-straight from the CFO of MGM.......
Banks catching a bid today. WM uUP 20%. WB on a tear. I guess all the Fed, Treasury, Agency... measures have a few boneheads getting in. Money being made today!
The New FASB rule allows similar to off balance sheet SIVs hotels to recognize people who arent actually staying at the hotel as revenue-producing guests.
FASB was thinking about changing that rule, but like the SIV rule, decided to keep it for a while. Accounting: Integrity, Professionalism, Conservatism.
In addition to new hotel development, there's a lot of conversion/upgrades going on. Here in Portland, the Hotel Modera right downtown opened Memorial Day, after a pricey redo of the former Day's Inn (woohoo!). Others: Ace Hotel; The Nines by Sage/Starwood Luxury Collection - the top nine floors on top of the just re-done Macy's on the first five floors. "The Nines has been described as 'nostalgic modern'..." My bet it will be described as mostly empty.
Regarding long term interest rates, need to remember that Chinese govt is sucking up all the Treasuries and Agencies it can, keeping US rates artificially low. As long as China continues to buy US govt debt to prop up exports, long term rates will stay low. Of course, our imports from there are likely to drop regardless because of the private credit crunch. There's no credit crunch for the US govt as long as China continues its current policy.
Totally anecdotal but a buddy just told me this story about San Diego.
They are having their wedding at hotel here and got a group rate for their friends.
Prices have come down so much because of lack of people that they had to requote the entire group. I think the hair cut the hotel took was on the order of 20-25%....
Long term rates in the US are artificially low due to distortion caused by China's massive purchases of US Treasuries and Agencies. Rates won't adjust to reality until China stops its policy of allocating its trade surplus to US govt debt. The policy helps them to suppress the yuan/dollar rate in order to support exports to the US.
barely, if sonic suess's observations on birth/death yesterday which were
if you look at birth/death adjustments for the past few months on the payroll number you see something interesting.
Mon 2007 -- 2008
Apr 262 -- 267
May 174 -- 217
Jun 155 -- 177
Jul 3 -- ???
The B/D adjustments for each month are quite close to the previous year's numbers for that month. If this trend holds then the B/D for July 2008 should be very low and we could be seeing a payroll number that is much worse than predicted
if they cook the numbers it will be easy to see..focus on the adjustment, if they don't cook them tomorrow on this 1 factor, it will be a good day to be short..
no matter what the number, the msg will be clear...
and by the looks of the tax withholding chart in link below it could be very interesting day...
barely, if sonic suess's observations on birth/death yesterday which were
if you look at birth/death adjustments for the past few months on the payroll number you see something interesting.
Mon 2007 -- 2008
Apr 262 -- 267
May 174 -- 217
Jun 155 -- 177
Jul 3 -- ???
The B/D adjustments for each month are quite close to the previous year's numbers for that month. If this trend holds then the B/D for July 2008 should be very low and we could be seeing a payroll number that is much worse than predicted
if they cook the numbers it will be easy to see..focus on the adjustment, if they don't cook them tomorrow on this 1 factor, it will be a good day to be short..
no matter what the number, the msg will be clear...
and by the looks of the tax withholding chart in link below it could be very interesting day...
I did a lot of driving up and down 5 and 101 in the last few months. There are probably too many new hotels. But I have to say that the old hotel/motel stock in many towns is crap -- rundown, no amenities, not especially cheap.
If new hotels eat the old crappy ones, that's fine by me. Of course they have to offer rooms at a price that people can afford, so if they're just shooting for the high-end business traveler they're in trouble.
CC project has really slowed down and I saw a news piece that some are questioning the ability to secure the remaining portion of financing to complete it (about $2.5B still needed) Of course they said they were "hopeful" that a "white knight" would help them out.....mentioned Dubai and U.A.E looking at this "fantastic opportunity"-straight from the CFO of MGM.......
Got a link?
The Middle East already got in on it a while back.... I'd be shocked if they doubled down....
Rode across Iowa on a bike last week. Saw a lot of residential as well as commercial construction. If the net population of Iowa is declining, what is the need for all the new construction?
I listened in on the Las Vegas Sands earnings conf call yesterday (LVS is as much a Hotel/Resort company as they are a casino company).
Somebody asked a question about possible liquidity and financing problems (their debt is now around $9B). The response of Sheldon Adelson, their billionare Chairman/CEO/Treasurer, was basically this: "Don't worry, you have my word we can handle the debt". To which an analyst replied, "OK, so you are personally guaranteeing financing?". No follow-up questioning, no pressing the company for more details on its financing needs and plans.
Unbelievable. People invest in this company at > 1000 times earnings!
Speaking from personal experience, hotel rates have shot up like a rocket these past 5 years. Throughout the 90's we'd stay in nice places in San Diego for under $150; now the same runs you double.
Well if there are sooo many hotels options out there...then riddle me this Batpersons: How come 90% of US hotels these days kinda bite? 4/5 star on Expedia- usually around $400/night most cities.
Just something I noticed. Can't put my finger on it, but definitely don't feel like I'm getting $400/night of value..more like $250...
No one cares but volume today is poor again
Waiting for the Job number again? Did anyone notice the little double top we had in the xlf. Something to watch if you hold a position...
NEW YORK (Thomson Financial) - Freddie Mac Thursday said it was doubling the amount of money it pays mortgage servicers for each workout that helps a delinquent borrower with a Freddie Mac-owned mortgage avoid foreclosure.
The federally-backed mortgage lender also said it would reimburse servicers for the cost of door-to-door outreach programs, as well as make changes intended to streamline the workout process.
The compensation for repayment plans will double to $500 from $250 while a loan modification compensation will increase to $800 from $400. Both measures are effective Aug. 1
Why [do] you think manufacturing/industrial or service or (and this is huge) governmental commercial spaces are less exposed [to the downturn]?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 07.31.08 - 12:49 pm | #
Ordinarily, I would think government space requirements wouldn't be exposed at all since that seems to be the biggest growth industry in California.
Now, though, things may change with follow-on announcements by the Governor to today's layoffs:
Brand new 12 story hotel looks to be opening very soon down the street from my office in Glendale, CA. It's next to the Hilton on Glenoaks. There's not much activity and not sure how they will do. Should be interesting.
Apparently (this is second hand information) Sheldon's planes-that are almost always at the West end of McCarran are both for sale. IF you travel to LV then you have seen them. They are slightly south of the Area 51 parking lot for those ...ahem..."special flights"
Sheldon may be trading up as the source mentioned. Guess when you're stock gets cut in half you need a bigger plane.
H-H-H-Hank was confident as usual????
Rhetorical question...
CSC do you remember that public service commercial about the teen who tells a story about a pregnant teen nammed Anna and at the end you find out that it is her "I know because I am Anna"
That reminds me of Greenspan. He wrote the damn prologue and 1st 10 chapters to this story so he know where its going.
looks like that short trading rule is working for the financials...
I did a post on this yesterday: Market makers are screaming about increased costs for shorting. I pretty much guarantee they will figure out a way to extract the costs back out of the market. The summary is that it will result in increased volatility (after the initial pop), and not just on the upside.
Share buy backs are the key and the death spiral is in place!
stock repurchases have a direct, mechanical impact on reported
EPS that is determined by three factors: the timing of the repurchase, the proportion of share bought back,
and the financial return forfeited on the funds used to buy back shares. The first two factors are responsible
for a reduction in the EPS numerator, but the third factor (forfeited return) decreases the EPS numerator.
The net result is that some stock repurchase increase reported EPS while other repurchases decrease EPS
the peoples republic of California is toast. From the yahoo article, the wage cut and layoffs would save 500 million a month or $6 billion per year.
Even if you fired all the workers, and saved the benefits and the $220 million a month 200k people at minimum wage make, you might save another $500 million a month total (benefits included).
That's still only $12 billion total. They need $18-22 billion. I assume that 200k is literally every non-safety worker in the state.
With California's cash dwindling and legislators still debating a new budget, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger eliminated 22,000 part-time and temporary state positions Thursday and ordered that 200,000 state workers receive the federal minimum wage.
Oil Prices May Be Unlikely Savior For US Economy
Thursday July 31, 1:39 pm ET
The US economy, desperately looking to stave off a recession, might find salvation in an unlikely place: volatile oil prices.
The recent decline in energy prices is one of the few bright spots in the sluggish economy, which took another hit Thursday as gross domestic product for the second quarter came in lower than expected and jobless claims showed a surprising and disturbing increase.
Oil Prices May Be Unlikely Savior For US Economy
Thursday July 31, 1:39 pm ET
The US economy, desperately looking to stave off a recession, might find salvation in an unlikely place: volatile oil prices.
The recent decline in energy prices is one of the few bright spots in the sluggish economy, which took another hit Thursday as gross domestic product for the second quarter came in lower than expected and jobless claims showed a surprising and disturbing increase.
your correct, mother is nurse facillitator for state and they can't cut her pay or hours....
she did have this to say and she's 64 still working:
The union is trying to get more money out of the state and I can't believe the people I work around are so greedy that they can't stand holding off on raises even though that's exactly what's needed when the state is bleeding a revenue death...
Prison guards here make 150K a year..
someone needs to step and say this year we are going to have to roll back the increase you received and your on a wage freeze for 4 years....Help save your state and not your ass.....
Elect me and I will save the state on prison outlays immediately....
All we have to do is take the 1/3 illegal alien prisoners down to mexico and pay them 13K-15K per prisoner per year to house and feed them in prisons they build anyway they want..
your correct, mother is nurse facillitator for state and they can't cut her pay or hours....
she did have this to say and she's 64 still working:
The union is trying to get more money out of the state and I can't believe the people I work around are so greedy that they can't stand holding off on raises even though that's exactly what's needed when the state is bleeding a revenue death...
Prison guards here make 150K a year..
someone needs to step and say this year we are going to have to roll back the increase you received and your on a wage freeze for 4 years....Help save your state and not your ass.....
Elect me and I will save the state on prison outlays immediately....
All we have to do is take the 1/3 illegal alien prisoners down to mexico and pay them 13K-15K per prisoner per year to house and feed them in prisons they build anyway they want..
"As with other companies who didn't really factor that word into anything I wonder how their resumes will look??"
Naw, we're looking at it wrong. Their risk officer was tasked with finding the MOST risky investments and financial strategies. He was a smashing success.
You should have seen the chummy banter between Charley Gasparino (cnbc) and the UBS guy this morning. Ech. UBS guy is a "decorated vietnam era special forces vet" who also chairs the Homeland Security something or other.
It's close enough to Happy Hour, and Uncle Billy needs cheering up, so here's an item I just heard on the radio.
The Emergency Room Doctors' Assoc. just sent out an ALERT about "text accidents" -- people who have accidents while texting.
The doctor interviewed told about the very first such accident she'd treated. A young woman was walking down the street while texting. She got to the corner, didn't noticed and stepped off the curb... and got hit by a car.
The car driver was talking on his cell at the time, and after hitting the woman, he over-corrected and hit a lamp post.
It's close enough to Happy Hour, and Uncle Billy needs cheering up, so here's an item I just heard on the radio.
The Emergency Room Doctors' Assoc. just sent out an ALERT about "text accidents" -- people who have accidents while texting.
The doctor interviewed told about the very first such accident she'd treated. A young woman was walking down the street while texting. She got to the corner, didn't noticed and stepped off the curb... and got hit by a car.
The car driver was talking on his cell at the time, and after hitting the woman, he over-corrected and hit a lamp post.
Kung Fu Panda writes:
I don't see what the problem is with CA raising taxes on its rich citizens. Is Google going to really move its HQ out of state?
Kung Fu Panda | Homepage | 07.31.08 - 4:33 pm | #
The richest of Californians structure their schedules such that they spend enough time "out of state" to avoid taxes. The tax burden then falls on to the upper middle class. At 9.3%, that's a pretty big burden, especially considering the already high cost of housing.
Nissan moved their HQ out of California, what makes you think Google or the other high-tech firms wouldn't do it if another tax increase made it even harder to recruit the best employees?
Is this techno day here? I feel so unwanted and unscripted, i.e, unable to contribute. I feel like a criminal, but why... why? All I see is being timed out, but why, poor me?
COMDEX went out of biz a while back - I used to go but it just got ridiculous.
COMDEX is no longer produced. Interop is now the event where the global IT community comes together to see all the latest technologies in action.
Uncle Billy, I am currently flashing my teats and honking my car horn in honor of your contributions and efforts to help bring America up from its knees, to a place where crooks are processed like lunch meat and sent to prisons where they will be turned into confetti and hung with pleasure and justice for all.
Did that help? Would you like to discuss share repurchase programs and option dilution as they relate to distorted EPS and dividends?
he $6.55 per hour federal minimum wage is below California's $8 minimum. But the California Supreme Court, in a 2003 decision, allowed the state to reduce its employees wages to the federal minimum if the budget was not passed.
California needs $2.5 billion cash on hand to pay its operational expenses, including the payroll. But by the end of September it is projected to have only $1.8 billion left on its coffers.
State controller John Chiang said he would continue to pay California employees their full pay even if the governor signs the executive order. Chiang insisted California has sufficient money to meet its payroll until September. "Cutting workers' salaries will do nothing meaningful to improve our cash position... It is nothing more than a poorly devised strategy to put pressure on the Legislature to enact a budget," Chiang said in a statement.
IT IS HEREBY REQUESTED that during this budget impasse, the State Treasurer shall take all actions necessary to maintain the States ability to pay its bond obligations, including payment of principal and interest with funds in the State Treasury, and shall take all actions that are necessary to protect the States funds and investments.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that all Agency Secretaries and Department Directors shall take immediate action to implement this Order, and any other action that will reduce state expenditures.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the Director of the Department of Finance shall establish an exemption process that Agency Secretaries shall utilize to determine if an exemption is justified based on critical services and functions, which may include either cost-reducing or revenue-producing services and functions that will help ensure that there is sufficient cash for the State to make its payments.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that Agency Secretaries and Cabinet-level Directors shall report their exemptions to the Cabinet Secretary and the Director of the Department of Finance within 24 hours of approving an exemption.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the Director of the Department of Finance and Director of the Department of Personnel Administration shall work with the State Controller to develop and implement the necessary mechanisms, including but not limited to pay letters and computer programs, to comply with the California Supreme Courts White v. Davis opinion to pay federal minimum wage to those nonexempt FLSA employees who did not work any overtime.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the necessary mechanisms to ensure compliance with the White v. Davis opinion must be in place to be effective for the August 2008 payroll.
Great time for PDX to subsidize a luxury hotel in downtown, eh?
Surely what swells it does manage to book will enjoy navigating past the hordes of the unwashed begging with their drums and feral dogs in Pioneer Square.
with a dollar on record low, i would rather say that these hotels will prosper in coming years, cause foreign touritst will be visiting usa more often...
But vacancy rates are already declining
Occupancy rates?
Seventeenth? +/- 16???
I love Haloscan. Gives me lots of time to do what I should be doing instead of commenting on CR.
I like this entry. Do any of you also follow any indices, securities or derivatives tied to CRE? Thanks.
Btw, both Professor Hamilton and I give props to Tanta right here on his blog in which I also suggest a (seemingly?) simple way to derive a national index of the incidence of mortgage fraud:
Econbrowser: Due diligence
CR thus intones sagely: Lodging is one of the three key components of non-residential investment that I expect to decline sharply. The other two are office buildings and multimerchandise shopping (malls!).
Why don't you think manufacturing/industrial or service or (and this is huge) governmental commercial spaces are less exposed?
As a business traveler who travels (planes and hotels) at least 3 out of 4 weeks, I am still not seeing much of a slow down. Flew down to San Diego this week and last (planes full) and the hotel that is my first choice was booked both times, rates at second choice around $170. This is not in the downtown or beach area (Rancho Bernardo). Still seeing families and business travelers, just got back from Florida and lots of tourist activity there. Believe me I am very bearish and I keep waiting to see the signs, just not where I am traveling....FWIW
I am seeing hugely discounted rates in hotels in Las Vegas.
Strip hotels as low as $29/night
5 star strip hotels 700+sqft rooms for $169/night
Those 5 star rooms were built for an average of $350/night.
There is something like another 40,000 rooms coming online this year too.
According to MSNBC, over half the casino-owned hotels in the city are offering rates of $50 per night or below. Yes, that type of price is usually reserved for roadside motels where you can also choose to pay by the hour. Even high end, established names like Luxor and MGM Grand have rooms available for under $100 per night.
It's raining new hotels where I live, and I just saw that occupancies are down about 10% from a year ago.
This kind of insanity is yet another example of why the market should control interest rates, not the Federal reserve (i.e. the politicians).
On a related note...
"Stockton's Sheraton Hotel in Foreclosure"
Stockton's Sheraton Hotel In Foreclosure - cbs13.com
They gathered for the feast
The stab it with their steely knives,
But they just cant kill the beast
40,000 million = 4 trillion right? What banks have exposure to these loans???? I need to short the shit out of them.
Halo scan ate my comment but as a business traveler on planes and hotels 3 weeks a month, I am not seeing much of a slowdown where I have been the last 3 months, San Diego, Florida, Nashville, full planes and booked hotels...when are these people going to max out their credit cards and stay home?
GirlBear,
"Full planes" are no longer economic indicators. Planes are "full" because capacity is waaay down. I can't prove it but it looks like airlines like Qantas are actually canceling flights because of low ridership. Understand also that $4 gas is mode shifting away from POV travel.
As a business traveler who travels (planes and hotels) at least 3 out of 4 weeks, I am still not seeing much of a slow down. Flew down to San Diego this week and last (planes full) and the hotel that is my first choice was booked both times, rates at second choice around $170. This is not in the downtown or beach area (Rancho Bernardo). Still seeing families and business travelers, just got back from Florida and lots of tourist activity there. Believe me I am very bearish and I keep waiting to see the signs, just not where I am traveling....FWIW
girlbear, look at the occupancy chart here. It seems to support your observation about San Diego:
Winter (Economic and Market) Watch » The Masterplan
Corn Falls as Warm, Wet Weather May Boost Midwest Production
Corn Falls as Rains Boost Midwest Crop Prospects; Soybeans Drop - Bloomberg.com
These guys are all Cornholiod, they will be ASSimilated
History repeats itself once again. I remember this occurring in previous cycles. Bad for recent investors in the hotel sector. But the excess supply will lower hotel rates. I look forward to enjoying this when I travel.
We've got a bunch of new hotels in our area, lots of extended stays. There is one downtown near our elevated highway. We like to play a game when we drive over it which involves counting the cars in the parking lot. Last time I counted to three. It is brand new. I"m not sure how it can last.
And occupancy rates around here were already in the low 50's.
Do any of you also follow any indices, securities or derivatives tied to CRE? Thanks.
I believe many here follow IYR and its double short SRS. IYR holds a lot of hotel REITs. Along with malls and office building REITs. I don't think anyone here invests in IYR. Many invest in SRS, myself included.
Some companies are instituting stricter business travel policies. A business trip needs a few more authorization signatures from the upper management and such.
Videoconferencing is getting really hot. Firms think it's a good cost-cutting investment.
Mo asked: "40,000 million = 4 trillion right?"
40,000 million is what we in the US call 40 billion.
Hotel I stay at in LA has been jam packed with Europeans for the past year. If the eurozone slowdown keeps running that support should wane. That would lead to even steeper declines...
No sympathy. If the emergence of "Condotels" as investment opportunities isn't ringing the bell then there's no helping you.
That said, THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT. Different means worse. Destination locations are being disintermediated. Recreational and organizational concentrations are no longer the cash cows they once were. What was that massive Las Vegas computer thingy of the late 1990s? I forget.
H-H-H-hank is talking on the bubbletube...
Airlines have been cutting capacity massively in order to keep yields up.
there's nothing to worry about, we can convert these hotels into condos.
Everybody loves condos, right?
H-H-H-hank is talking on the bubbletube...
I'm not even going to bother trying to watch him unless they've got subtitles this time around.
The brillance (namely lack thereof) of the "condo hotel" is revealed. It will go down as the pets.com investment of the RE bubble
H-H-H-hank is talking on the bubbletube...
The fawning by the MSM over Hank Paulson as the "savior of Wall Street" is eerily familiar to the adulation given to Don Rumsfeld after 9/11. We all saw how well that turned out.
One of the conventions in hospitality was that 50% to 55% occupancy should be your break-even point.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that a new paradigm has been established, however.
Strip hotels as low as $29/night
How often do you have to strip to get that rate?
MS-u around..that silver mine we discussed lst wk did break thru 50ma...I'm going in on dips..
This hits on the hotel story & GDP:
Part-time employment hits record
Part-time employment hits record - BloggingStocks
The unemployment rate is a relatively modest 5.5%. But that's because companies have figured out how to convert full-time employees who have benefits like health care into part-time ones who lack benefits and whose hours can be cut back at will. This is a great deal for companies and a lousy one for workers. And it is ultimately bad for investors.
As someone who does a lot of business travel into the darkest heart of rural flyover country, the hotel boom has been a godsend.
I can't believe the number of Holiday Inn express / hilton garden inn / hyatt place etc that have sprung up in the last few years in really poor corners of the US.
Heard it on CNBC... 60 year mortgage! Brilliant!
Maybe use some empty hotels and CNBC bimbos to film Hostel 3
aimless, they have also figured out how to fire their people and hire them back as "independent consultants" with no benefits
Luxury California Oceanfront Resorts | Terranea Resort | Eco Resorts in Southern California
Just waiting for the prices to drop below $2million.
Oh, and its not a condotel, it is "Legacy Real Estate."
Please.
From CR's graph, it looks like Lodging construction is typically about 10% of total Non-Res construction.
But in the 2006-2008 period, Lodging grew $25B while Non-Res ex Lodging grew only $100B. Lodging growth added substantally disproportionally (25% vs 10%) to Non-Res growth.
If Lodging drops back even to typical $15-20B it will impact Non-Res much more than its nominal 10% contribution.
From CR's graph, it looks like Lodging construction is typically about 10% of total Non-Res construction.
But in the 2006-2008 period, Lodging grew $25B while Non-Res ex Lodging grew only $100B. Lodging growth added substantally disproportionally (25% vs 10%) to Non-Res growth.
If Lodging drops back even to typical $15-20B it will impact Non-Res much more than its nominal 10% contribution.
"(NYTimes)Published: August 1, 2008
Exxon Mobil reaped $11.68 billion in second-quarter profits, the most ever by an American company"
well, yet again the S&P earning might look too rosy to be true ...
"...they have also figured out how to fire their people and hire them back as "independent consultants" with no benefits"
Hey, it's all good because the BLS can use all these shiny new "independent consultants" to goose the birth/death numbers for new business formation.
I'd love to see the effect, if any, in Vegas. They've been adding hotel additions, condos, and the like for about 10 years straight, unabated.
Rob Dawg is right on- ""Full planes" are no longer economic indicators. Planes are "full" because capacity is waaay down."
Went SF to Maui earlier this month and the United flight was packed. I was shocked since I believe this economy is going down in flames. Then I remembered that we have lost ATA and Aloha Airlines. That is hundreds of seats lost. Less carriers = full flights. Now, back to the recession/depression.
Just returned from Cancun/Cozumel. Rows of condo projects and unfinished hotels, land development. Cranes everywhere. They thought the hurricane that hit there years ago was the low point. They are going to get jammed now! I project years of unfinished and dilapidated abandoned projects. Downtown they are still trying to hawk Tiffany's, Harley Davidson's, high end luxury goods. It is going to be a blood bath. Never have I seen such an impoverished place make such a huge bet on just one business model: Tourism. Same tourism financed out of home equity withdrawal and paper profits. UGLY!
In addition to new hotel development, there's a lot of conversion/upgrades going on. Here in Portland, the Hotel Modera right downtown opened Memorial Day, after a pricey redo of the former Day's Inn (woohoo!). Others: Ace Hotel; The Nines by Sage/Starwood Luxury Collection - the top nine floors on top of the just re-done Macy's on the first five floors. "The Nines has been described as 'nostalgic modern'..." My bet it will be described as mostly empty.
cd-
Fire away.....if it's up and over 50dma with avg. ( or slightly more) volume than that's about all you can do. Set-ups have been a little disappointing
as of late. Just watch it and set an appropriate stop.
Good Luck....
Doing yardwork today...in and out of the office.
I see someone thought WM was a decent buy.....woohoo!
Ciao
MS
$29 a night is about $1000 per month, with taxes, which is likely a bit less than the mortgage payment on a reset ARM or subprime...perhaps the crash in hotel occupancy will turn out to be useful for foreclosed homeowners.
from a prior post
Back from LV yesterday and have observed that the projects are still being worked on as if it were '02-'05.
Almost 13k rooms coming online by the end of next year (City Center+ Fashion Island??-can't remember the project name).
CC project has really slowed down and I saw a news piece that some are questioning the ability to secure the remaining portion of financing to complete it (about $2.5B still needed) Of course they said they were "hopeful" that a "white knight" would help them out.....mentioned Dubai and U.A.E looking at this "fantastic opportunity"-straight from the CFO of MGM.......
Ah...yes the continuing "hope" program.
Ciao
MS
Banks catching a bid today. WM uUP 20%. WB on a tear. I guess all the Fed, Treasury, Agency... measures have a few boneheads getting in. Money being made today!
CNBC reports Toscafund buys 105.5 M shares (6%) of WM. No details available. Stock up 20%
The New FASB rule allows similar to off balance sheet SIVs hotels to recognize people who arent actually staying at the hotel as revenue-producing guests.
FASB was thinking about changing that rule, but like the SIV rule, decided to keep it for a while. Accounting: Integrity, Professionalism, Conservatism.
Final day of the month. Bizarro moves.
In addition to new hotel development, there's a lot of conversion/upgrades going on. Here in Portland, the Hotel Modera right downtown opened Memorial Day, after a pricey redo of the former Day's Inn (woohoo!). Others: Ace Hotel; The Nines by Sage/Starwood Luxury Collection - the top nine floors on top of the just re-done Macy's on the first five floors. "The Nines has been described as 'nostalgic modern'..." My bet it will be described as mostly empty.
Doesn't bode well for commercial REITS
D Kass on WM... "Silly move and I'm shorting more here"
Nice how CRE is so totally in the horizontal momentum part of the Wile E. Coyote Moment - just starting to look down and see nothing underfoot.....
CR - Can you run a post on Weekly unemployment numbers, ahead of tomorrow's July report ?
Yes, I saw Day Inn turn into the area's first "boutique hotel." Soon to be known as a boutique homeless shelter.
Regarding long term interest rates, need to remember that Chinese govt is sucking up all the Treasuries and Agencies it can, keeping US rates artificially low. As long as China continues to buy US govt debt to prop up exports, long term rates will stay low. Of course, our imports from there are likely to drop regardless because of the private credit crunch. There's no credit crunch for the US govt as long as China continues its current policy.
Establishment survey (in WAG)will have loss of 30k, Household will be -150 to -200k, in 9 months BED will show -300k
Totally anecdotal but a buddy just told me this story about San Diego.
They are having their wedding at hotel here and got a group rate for their friends.
Prices have come down so much because of lack of people that they had to requote the entire group. I think the hair cut the hotel took was on the order of 20-25%....
............
Long term rates in the US are artificially low due to distortion caused by China's massive purchases of US Treasuries and Agencies. Rates won't adjust to reality until China stops its policy of allocating its trade surplus to US govt debt. The policy helps them to suppress the yuan/dollar rate in order to support exports to the US.
Remember, it's mainly about China right now.
barely, if sonic suess's observations on birth/death yesterday which were
if you look at birth/death adjustments for the past few months on the payroll number you see something interesting.
Mon 2007 -- 2008
Apr 262 -- 267
May 174 -- 217
Jun 155 -- 177
Jul 3 -- ???
The B/D adjustments for each month are quite close to the previous year's numbers for that month. If this trend holds then the B/D for July 2008 should be very low and we could be seeing a payroll number that is much worse than predicted
if they cook the numbers it will be easy to see..focus on the adjustment, if they don't cook them tomorrow on this 1 factor, it will be a good day to be short..
no matter what the number, the msg will be clear...
and by the looks of the tax withholding chart in link below it could be very interesting day...
Matt Trivisonno's Blog » Withholding Taxes Chart
barely, if sonic suess's observations on birth/death yesterday which were
if you look at birth/death adjustments for the past few months on the payroll number you see something interesting.
Mon 2007 -- 2008
Apr 262 -- 267
May 174 -- 217
Jun 155 -- 177
Jul 3 -- ???
The B/D adjustments for each month are quite close to the previous year's numbers for that month. If this trend holds then the B/D for July 2008 should be very low and we could be seeing a payroll number that is much worse than predicted
if they cook the numbers it will be easy to see..focus on the adjustment, if they don't cook them tomorrow on this 1 factor, it will be a good day to be short..
no matter what the number, the msg will be clear...
and by the looks of the tax withholding chart in link below it could be very interesting day...
Matt Trivisonno's Blog » Withholding Taxes Chart
I did a lot of driving up and down 5 and 101 in the last few months. There are probably too many new hotels. But I have to say that the old hotel/motel stock in many towns is crap -- rundown, no amenities, not especially cheap.
If new hotels eat the old crappy ones, that's fine by me. Of course they have to offer rooms at a price that people can afford, so if they're just shooting for the high-end business traveler they're in trouble.
2nd post is halo issue..
also tomorrow auto numbers are going to be ugly again...
MS,
CC project has really slowed down and I saw a news piece that some are questioning the ability to secure the remaining portion of financing to complete it (about $2.5B still needed) Of course they said they were "hopeful" that a "white knight" would help them out.....mentioned Dubai and U.A.E looking at this "fantastic opportunity"-straight from the CFO of MGM.......
Got a link?
The Middle East already got in on it a while back.... I'd be shocked if they doubled down....
..................
"2nd post is halo issue"
halo is a buggers' turd today.
No I don't I saw it on local news....and also heard it on KNUU radio.
It was pretty rah-rah (on TV)....can't remember the station though.
You know......"jobs for locals" sort of slant.
Ciao
MS
Maestro Greespan on CNBC. The man behind the disaster.
"fre and FNM accident waiting to happen"
Rode across Iowa on a bike last week. Saw a lot of residential as well as commercial construction. If the net population of Iowa is declining, what is the need for all the new construction?
MS heard the same thing on NPR. Build and they will come... hopefully... maybe... please????
Thanks....
.....
Tim writes:
Heard it on CNBC... 60 year mortgage! Brilliant!
It's only fair. The kids will inherit the mortgage along with the house.
Greenspam talketh - Market tanketh.
He basically called for nationalization and eventual breakup of GSEs. Didn't say shareholders get ZERO, but implied...
I listened in on the Las Vegas Sands earnings conf call yesterday (LVS is as much a Hotel/Resort company as they are a casino company).
Somebody asked a question about possible liquidity and financing problems (their debt is now around $9B). The response of Sheldon Adelson, their billionare Chairman/CEO/Treasurer, was basically this: "Don't worry, you have my word we can handle the debt". To which an analyst replied, "OK, so you are personally guaranteeing financing?". No follow-up questioning, no pressing the company for more details on its financing needs and plans.
Unbelievable. People invest in this company at > 1000 times earnings!
Speaking from personal experience, hotel rates have shot up like a rocket these past 5 years. Throughout the 90's we'd stay in nice places in San Diego for under $150; now the same runs you double.
I'm looking forward to cheap rates.
looks like we have a come to jesus moment this afternoon on th market....
Financials hanging tough though....
He basically called for nationalization and eventual breakup of GSEs. Didn't say shareholders get ZERO, but implied
knowing him he's probably shorting them. Perfect create a crisis the profit from it. We should be so lucky.
cd,
The B/D model should be adding 30-35k jobs, so establishment job losses could easily be over 100k(yes I'm already revising my WAG.)
Well if there are sooo many hotels options out there...then riddle me this Batpersons: How come 90% of US hotels these days kinda bite? 4/5 star on Expedia- usually around $400/night most cities.
Just something I noticed. Can't put my finger on it, but definitely don't feel like I'm getting $400/night of value..more like $250...
No one cares but volume today is poor again
Waiting for the Job number again? Did anyone notice the little double top we had in the xlf. Something to watch if you hold a position...
Bubble Forming!
NEW YORK (Thomson Financial) - Freddie Mac Thursday said it was doubling the amount of money it pays mortgage servicers for each workout that helps a delinquent borrower with a Freddie Mac-owned mortgage avoid foreclosure.
The federally-backed mortgage lender also said it would reimburse servicers for the cost of door-to-door outreach programs, as well as make changes intended to streamline the workout process.
The compensation for repayment plans will double to $500 from $250 while a loan modification compensation will increase to $800 from $400. Both measures are effective Aug. 1
The plan is to relocate Israel to Iowa at some point in the future, for the sake of world peace.
Iowa is not as holy but it's a lot safer and there's more to eat.
Why [do] you think manufacturing/industrial or service or (and this is huge) governmental commercial spaces are less exposed [to the downturn]?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 07.31.08 - 12:49 pm | #
Ordinarily, I would think government space requirements wouldn't be exposed at all since that seems to be the biggest growth industry in California.
Now, though, things may change with follow-on announcements by the Governor to today's layoffs:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Anyone know how to short California?
Brand new 12 story hotel looks to be opening very soon down the street from my office in Glendale, CA. It's next to the Hilton on Glenoaks. There's not much activity and not sure how they will do. Should be interesting.
Apparently (this is second hand information) Sheldon's planes-that are almost always at the West end of McCarran are both for sale. IF you travel to LV then you have seen them. They are slightly south of the Area 51 parking lot for those ...ahem..."special flights"
Sheldon may be trading up as the source mentioned. Guess when you're stock gets cut in half you need a bigger plane.
H-H-H-Hank was confident as usual????
Rhetorical question...
Ciao
MS
girlbear, last week was Comicon --- one of the busiest events of the year in SD.
Anyone know how to short California?
Short/Sell their bonds.
BA is the boat anchor of the DOW today, along with big oil. Major tanking...
THE HOUSING BOTTOM IS IN!!!!
\t
Greenspan Says Falling Housing Prices Are `Nowhere Near' Bottom
Greenspan Says Housing Prices Not Yet Near Bottom (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
looks like that short trading rule is working for the financials...
CSC do you remember that public service commercial about the teen who tells a story about a pregnant teen nammed Anna and at the end you find out that it is her "I know because I am Anna"
That reminds me of Greenspan. He wrote the damn prologue and 1st 10 chapters to this story so he know where its going.
MS & cd
Don't you think that the recent sell offs of the strong sectors could simply be due to the banks rolling back their positions in stocks?
as in the oil trade??
could be. They don't seem to be able to hold anything for very long...must be something about being "well-capitalized" ala MER....
I think this week was all about those important month-end statements. 11,3XX looks a hell of a lot better than 10,7XX.
"see you didn't lose that much....just stick it out" goes the mantra...
BTW the jobs #'s must be REALLY good
Ciao
MS
looks like that short trading rule is working for the financials...
I did a post on this yesterday: Market makers are screaming about increased costs for shorting. I pretty much guarantee they will figure out a way to extract the costs back out of the market. The summary is that it will result in increased volatility (after the initial pop), and not just on the upside.
"see you didn't lose that much....just stick it out" goes the mantra...
The siren song of the bulls and bottom callers.
Share buy backs are the key and the death spiral is in place!
stock repurchases have a direct, mechanical impact on reported
EPS that is determined by three factors: the timing of the repurchase, the proportion of share bought back,
and the financial return forfeited on the funds used to buy back shares. The first two factors are responsible
for a reduction in the EPS numerator, but the third factor (forfeited return) decreases the EPS numerator.
The net result is that some stock repurchase increase reported EPS while other repurchases decrease EPS
Anyone see that large dump (volume-wise) on WM??
could be just the trades from earlier being reported however 13.3m (in it's current range) is not an small amount.....
Ciao
MS
"Wachovia's Chief Risk Officer Becomes Latest Exec To Exit"
They had one???
As with other companies who didn't really factor that word into anything I wonder how their resumes will look??
What the hell were these guys doing???
Ciao
MS
the peoples republic of California is toast. From the yahoo article, the wage cut and layoffs would save 500 million a month or $6 billion per year.
Even if you fired all the workers, and saved the benefits and the $220 million a month 200k people at minimum wage make, you might save another $500 million a month total (benefits included).
That's still only $12 billion total. They need $18-22 billion. I assume that 200k is literally every non-safety worker in the state.
Wow
With California's cash dwindling and legislators still debating a new budget, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger eliminated 22,000 part-time and temporary state positions Thursday and ordered that 200,000 state workers receive the federal minimum wage.
I don't see what the problem is with CA raising taxes on its rich citizens. Is Google going to really move its HQ out of state?
Expired
Oil Prices May Be Unlikely Savior For US Economy
Thursday July 31, 1:39 pm ET
The US economy, desperately looking to stave off a recession, might find salvation in an unlikely place: volatile oil prices.
The recent decline in energy prices is one of the few bright spots in the sluggish economy, which took another hit Thursday as gross domestic product for the second quarter came in lower than expected and jobless claims showed a surprising and disturbing increase.
Expired
Oil Prices May Be Unlikely Savior For US Economy
Thursday July 31, 1:39 pm ET
The US economy, desperately looking to stave off a recession, might find salvation in an unlikely place: volatile oil prices.
The recent decline in energy prices is one of the few bright spots in the sluggish economy, which took another hit Thursday as gross domestic product for the second quarter came in lower than expected and jobless claims showed a surprising and disturbing increase.
Besides, even if the Governator fires you, apparently if you just keep showing up for work the state controller will pay you because he's a Democrat.
??
where is uncle billy?
badger boy,
your correct, mother is nurse facillitator for state and they can't cut her pay or hours....
she did have this to say and she's 64 still working:
The union is trying to get more money out of the state and I can't believe the people I work around are so greedy that they can't stand holding off on raises even though that's exactly what's needed when the state is bleeding a revenue death...
Prison guards here make 150K a year..
someone needs to step and say this year we are going to have to roll back the increase you received and your on a wage freeze for 4 years....Help save your state and not your ass.....
Elect me and I will save the state on prison outlays immediately....
All we have to do is take the 1/3 illegal alien prisoners down to mexico and pay them 13K-15K per prisoner per year to house and feed them in prisons they build anyway they want..
6 billion instantly saved.....
badger boy,
your correct, mother is nurse facillitator for state and they can't cut her pay or hours....
she did have this to say and she's 64 still working:
The union is trying to get more money out of the state and I can't believe the people I work around are so greedy that they can't stand holding off on raises even though that's exactly what's needed when the state is bleeding a revenue death...
Prison guards here make 150K a year..
someone needs to step and say this year we are going to have to roll back the increase you received and your on a wage freeze for 4 years....Help save your state and not your ass.....
Elect me and I will save the state on prison outlays immediately....
All we have to do is take the 1/3 illegal alien prisoners down to mexico and pay them 13K-15K per prisoner per year to house and feed them in prisons they build anyway they want..
6 billion instantly saved.....
ShortCourage,
If you ask casino CEO's tough questions, you get your thumbs broken...capiche?
he's with Mickey Dora....
Ciao
MS
Rob Dawg;
Big computer show in LV = COMDEX
Here I am ???
I just watching the news roll by today. All commented out.
Maybe I can squeeze this off before passing out:
200,000 + 22,000 new upcoming mortgage defaults?
"As with other companies who didn't really factor that word into anything I wonder how their resumes will look??"
Naw, we're looking at it wrong. Their risk officer was tasked with finding the MOST risky investments and financial strategies. He was a smashing success.
Kung Fu Panda,
That thought crossed my mind as I listened to the analysts soft-ball questions and chummy banter with Adelson.
Oil Prices May Be Unlikely Savior For US Economy
It takes a serious case of chronic short-term-itus to believe this BS. Still over $120 a barrel.
Short:
You should have seen the chummy banter between Charley Gasparino (cnbc) and the UBS guy this morning. Ech. UBS guy is a "decorated vietnam era special forces vet" who also chairs the Homeland Security something or other.
Calling all swift boats.
A little more UBS dirt:
http://www.wealth-bulletin.com/people/content/2451334267/
It's close enough to Happy Hour, and Uncle Billy needs cheering up, so here's an item I just heard on the radio.
The Emergency Room Doctors' Assoc. just sent out an ALERT about "text accidents" -- people who have accidents while texting.
The doctor interviewed told about the very first such accident she'd treated. A young woman was walking down the street while texting. She got to the corner, didn't noticed and stepped off the curb... and got hit by a car.
The car driver was talking on his cell at the time, and after hitting the woman, he over-corrected and hit a lamp post.
ROTFLMAO! A two-fer!
It's close enough to Happy Hour, and Uncle Billy needs cheering up, so here's an item I just heard on the radio.
The Emergency Room Doctors' Assoc. just sent out an ALERT about "text accidents" -- people who have accidents while texting.
The doctor interviewed told about the very first such accident she'd treated. A young woman was walking down the street while texting. She got to the corner, didn't noticed and stepped off the curb... and got hit by a car.
The car driver was talking on his cell at the time, and after hitting the woman, he over-corrected and hit a lamp post.
ROTFLMAO! A two-fer!
Thanks A-Bosch.
Ok. Catch up with you later.
Kung Fu Panda writes:
I don't see what the problem is with CA raising taxes on its rich citizens. Is Google going to really move its HQ out of state?
Kung Fu Panda | Homepage | 07.31.08 - 4:33 pm | #
The richest of Californians structure their schedules such that they spend enough time "out of state" to avoid taxes. The tax burden then falls on to the upper middle class. At 9.3%, that's a pretty big burden, especially considering the already high cost of housing.
Nissan moved their HQ out of California, what makes you think Google or the other high-tech firms wouldn't do it if another tax increase made it even harder to recruit the best employees?
Sonic,
$100 oil hoses the US economy but good - it's just a question of how much gas on the fire between $100 - $120 - $140...
Pitchforks, if you're around I asked on a thread below if you were illuminated, but Halo ate my comment.
FNORD. . .fnord. . . f n o r d. . . . . ..
ew housing bill, something about REITs and lodging?
God Bless you Uncle B,
Is this techno day here? I feel so unwanted and unscripted, i.e, unable to contribute. I feel like a criminal, but why... why? All I see is being timed out, but why, poor me?
Big computer show in LV = COMDEX
girlbear
COMDEX went out of biz a while back - I used to go but it just got ridiculous.
COMDEX is no longer produced. Interop is now the event where the global IT community comes together to see all the latest technologies in action.
COMDEX | Welcome
I wonder about some of your other comments now.
-K
Uncle Billy, I am currently flashing my teats and honking my car horn in honor of your contributions and efforts to help bring America up from its knees, to a place where crooks are processed like lunch meat and sent to prisons where they will be turned into confetti and hung with pleasure and justice for all.
Did that help? Would you like to discuss share repurchase programs and option dilution as they relate to distorted EPS and dividends?
WTF do you want?
he $6.55 per hour federal minimum wage is below California's $8 minimum. But the California Supreme Court, in a 2003 decision, allowed the state to reduce its employees wages to the federal minimum if the budget was not passed.
California needs $2.5 billion cash on hand to pay its operational expenses, including the payroll. But by the end of September it is projected to have only $1.8 billion left on its coffers.
State controller John Chiang said he would continue to pay California employees their full pay even if the governor signs the executive order. Chiang insisted California has sufficient money to meet its payroll until September. "Cutting workers' salaries will do nothing meaningful to improve our cash position... It is nothing more than a poorly devised strategy to put pressure on the Legislature to enact a budget," Chiang said in a statement.
EXECUTIVE ORDER S-09-08
Wage Law: Schwarzenegger to make state workers pay for legislators' budget dispute
IT IS HEREBY REQUESTED that during this budget impasse, the State Treasurer shall take all actions necessary to maintain the States ability to pay its bond obligations, including payment of principal and interest with funds in the State Treasury, and shall take all actions that are necessary to protect the States funds and investments.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that all Agency Secretaries and Department Directors shall take immediate action to implement this Order, and any other action that will reduce state expenditures.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the Director of the Department of Finance shall establish an exemption process that Agency Secretaries shall utilize to determine if an exemption is justified based on critical services and functions, which may include either cost-reducing or revenue-producing services and functions that will help ensure that there is sufficient cash for the State to make its payments.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that Agency Secretaries and Cabinet-level Directors shall report their exemptions to the Cabinet Secretary and the Director of the Department of Finance within 24 hours of approving an exemption.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the Director of the Department of Finance and Director of the Department of Personnel Administration shall work with the State Controller to develop and implement the necessary mechanisms, including but not limited to pay letters and computer programs, to comply with the California Supreme Courts White v. Davis opinion to pay federal minimum wage to those nonexempt FLSA employees who did not work any overtime.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the necessary mechanisms to ensure compliance with the White v. Davis opinion must be in place to be effective for the August 2008 payroll.
JimPortlandOR,
Great time for PDX to subsidize a luxury hotel in downtown, eh?
Surely what swells it does manage to book will enjoy navigating past the hordes of the unwashed begging with their drums and feral dogs in Pioneer Square.
The rich in California already pay 10.3% , with the mental health surcharge for those above $1m.
Isn't it the highest? Any other state that charges at a higher rate?
Oops, a wrong comment column. Sorry.
with a dollar on record low, i would rather say that these hotels will prosper in coming years, cause foreign touritst will be visiting usa more often...