Northern Ireland: Bursting the Bubble
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 2:22pm (63 comments)
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 20 members and 149 guests online.
Recent Recommendations
it's a truly globalized world - an upside down house in merced, ca causes another house in cork, ireland to drop in value.
Semi-OT
Stories related to Phoenix Martgage co. CEO suicide:
Rightpath Ltd. Development sues Mortgages Ltd. for fraud in connection with $120 million loan
Lender, developer of Chateaux on Central in flap over high-profile property
Centerpoint needs $50M to complete Tempe high-rises
Who would buy a house in Ireland? 93% of homes don't even have electricty or running water. The Irish are subhuman savages.
yours in Christ,
Isamu
The truly hilarious part is how they start off the interview talking about how prices went up %37 in one year, and then by the end, they are talking about how a 20% down deposit is going to protect the bank. Ridiculous. Most of the crap that was built up in the outer suburbs is pretty much doomed for the same fate as the crap in the CA central valley. A drop of 20% will be just the start. It won't even be enough to really wake everyone up that there is a real problem ahead. The moronic few knife catchers will walk in, have their fingers/hands/arms sliced off, and then maybe after sufficient blood is running in the streets, they will realize something is amiss.
Gosh its tough not feeding the trolls!
Sorry for the OT --
Alec - Are you sure that was a suicide? 3 kids is a lot to leave behind.
The Doctor has a list of level 3 asset exposure. IMO this global meltdown is only going to get worse.
Dr. Housing Bubble Blog
Just to note, This video is about the housing market in Northern Ireland (so it's part of the UK, values will be in sterling).
The market there really took off after the peace process was successful. Prior to that, it was the cheapest place to buy in the UK, because of the security situation, unemployment of over 20% and the difficulty of getting most UK banks to lend there.
The end of the troubles was accompanied by an economic recovery,low interest rates and many people moving out of low-rent housing. somewhere over the past few years, the correction back to the norm turned into the most massively bubbly area in the UK, with annual price rises of up to 50%.
Now it looks like they're going to see the area's first big crash.
You get sued for $25mm and 2 days later you're dead?
jackk --
it's a truly globalized world - an upside down house in merced, ca causes another house in cork, ireland to drop in value.
It's the Butterfly Effect: A house flips in Merced and causes a tsunami of foreclosures in Ireland...
Sorry, but you have to laugh:
HOV laid a big egg AH.
Expired
The Republic is even worse.
Although our media don't like to admit it... how about this quote from Ireland's biggest Sunday newspaper:
"...With the death of 100% mortgages - Borrowers seeking mortgages have had to resort to saving deposits, forcing many to sit by and watch house prices tumble without being able to do anything about it."
8)
Is THIS Greenspan's fault? Not hardly.
O/T
LEH:
"Lehman Brothers lost about $600m on a single hedging position in the second quarter, adding to what is expected to be a larger than anticipated loss that may lead the bank to raise more capital by selling a stake to an outside investor."
InfoViewer: Lehman loses $600m on hedging position
Add to this another possible ratings cut and $5.2B to cover.
Dang,sounds like FL/AZ/CA/NV with funny accents...
Chris
Did anyone see this.....Buy one get one free housing...
Buy a Home, Get One Free - The Home Front (usnews.com)
Hugh McCoodanode?
Do the Irish still put their cows and pigs in the houses at night? Maybe offering animal pens as an option would boost sales.
jackk writes:
it's a truly globalized world - an upside down house in merced, ca causes another house in cork, ireland to drop in value.
jackk | 06.03.08 - 6:42 pm
Continuing from other thread...if folks are getting tired of tsunami as a description, move on to "chaos".
So if some Nigerian dude gets you to wire funds to him, does that mean that LEH loses 2%?
"Cobradriver writes:
Dang,sounds like FL/AZ/CA/NV with funny accents..."
If you think those are funny accents, you should hear what most people in "Norn Irn" sound like. I was on a business trip up there for a few days from Dublin and it took me about five tries to figure out what the cashier at Burger King was saying when she asked "would you like a male with that?" ... Meal...
The republic is probably worse in terms of a bubble. Dublin's most expensive house sold for approximately $89 million. Nice house though. I used walk by it nearly every day.
Diplomat's home set to be Dublin's most expensive < French news | Expatica France
Two years ago I saw a graph of the run up in the (real) Ireland. Pure parabolic. Pure insanity. Made the US run up look like a joke...
I'll look for it now...
The Irish will always be with you...
Actually yes, it was Greenspans mess. We were in an international financial bubble that just happened to inflate house prices. Could have been tulips.
Obviously fake! Sunny all the time. I mean where's the bloody rain?
This was filmed in Spain and the voices dubbed over.
Alec --
"McCoodanode" sounds Scottish.
"Hewney O'Coodanode" might work, though.
Picky, picky Nemo...how 'bout
Seamus Mac Coodanode.
Had me LOL anyway Alec.
Cheers,
FitzCoodanode?
Fitz=bastard
Bob Mologna | 06.03.08 - 8:33 pm |
I had a manager about 8 years ago who came here from NI. Really bad accent.
Oh,he also had a really bad stutter.
Made for interesting talks. I don't want to think how many times I said "Excuse me" trying to figure out what he was saying. One of the best guys I have ever worked with.
Chris
They walked away from 10%. Because they're under water.
Good thing that's not happening here!
Cheers,
Like those of us in the US, Europeans are now discovering they are all subprime now!
I have no doubt that the investment banks, banks, and hedge funds replicated and spread this disease to every corner of the world.
Mac is scottish, Mc is irish....
Misean what kind of name is that?
(Serious question tho sounds a bit direct)
I thought it was pronounced Me-Shawn
(Irish?)
ades,
Nope...especially for NI, I think...caveat...but Mac is a proper surname for Irish. Seamus was pulled from an Irish baby list name.
Bit quick and dirty research...willing to be told I'm an asshat.
Cheers,
"asshat"
G'Damn I love that word....
Pure comedy....
On a different note how do you think gold will fare in the future in light of BB's recent remarks?
Irish name - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Family name - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Looks like Mac is irish too! Good call.
Of course this is from the Wiki, the same thing that old me that:
Kristi Yamaguchi is a whitewashed American sell out.
just a few days ago. Looks like its been corrected tho...
ades,
Well you didn't actually HAVE to call me an asshat.
Gold and silver are struggling. The commodity bubble is really hitting consumables.
Which means...if you want to play the bubble...
Copper, Platinum, paladium, steel-iron.
I fear these metals...but if this bubble goes rip roaring...never know.
Monetary metals seem to be very injured now. They're holding at defensive levels, but aren't really turning around. 95% of my metals were bought in the early 2000's so I'm not price sensitive. Plays now are gut plays. I hate gut plays.
Hope that confusing lot of gibberish sorts things out for you.
Cheers,
alec,
i just read in some arizona newspaper that after centerpoint condos, some new developments are about to be started in tempe, and that they are already 25% presold before the construction even started, and that the developer will RAISE prices since "the condos will come online in a year or 2, just when the market will be hot again".
whaddya all say to that? hard to believe
It does. I work for a contractor. Steel has been OOC! (out of control!)
The raw material now costs as much as the installed price from just four years ago. The installed price is now double.
Its funny we're (socal) in a building slump (commerical construction) with excess labor and few projects and still the prices are skyrocketing.
Very frustrating for some developers / owners.
ades:
I'm failing at an emoticon for asshat.
Best I can come up with is:
w
0
Just doesn't work.
Actually, that works best for when my father used to call someone a tithead.
Extrapolating the ABX, which has proved useful in the past, we're once again headed for another credit storm.
Products and Services Overview
If it costs too much to build them b/c of commodity prices and/or nobody wants them, what are construction workers going to do? I've got an idea...MMA. I think some could really kick as at Mixed Martial Arts especially if they could use nail guns, band saws, and sledge hammers.
Or, during their idle time, Hammers Across America to raise money for down-on-their luck real estate contractors who don't show up on the unemployment numbers. Interlocking hammers instead of hands from coast to coast. Would raise hundreds of dollars.
Elvis,
Doom4: Housing Zombies.
Our intrepid Marine must investigate GIANT condo complexes and fight the zombies and monsters therein.
Cheers,
I GOT A GOLDMINE IN THE CONGO. WOULD LIKE TO BUY IT? CHEAP, REAL CHEAP.
25% presold=never gets built.
2 projects say they're going up contingent on financing who claim those numbers, haven't done anything but grade the lots. Should make for great parking spaces.
Centerpoint had 40% presold when they broke ground, now down to 5%. Fuglier than Amy Winehouse.
RE: CONDOS IN AZ. THE PREVIOUS NOTE WAS MEANT FOR JACKK
ades,
Like I said bubble plays. But the last two bubbles went far beyond my expectations. Sucks being a total bear....
Oh well...
Bear necessities:
YouTube - Bare Necessities
Cheers,
Emoticon for asshat...
3:-)
OT
A friend of mine recently won a entrepenurial contest at his school and now he's got investors up the wazoo beating down his door and pilot program contracts to boot.
Does anybody know of folks who are integrating google earth into CRM/sales software?
(__/)
(='.'=)
(")(")
Do not feed the bunny.
Allen C writes:
Extrapolating the ABX..
CR used to post these wonderful ABX charts. They were especially beautiful on Fridays what with a beer in hand and seeing the cliff diving.
I like the bunny. Cute! But with the underscore, you cant tell its side of the equasion. If male, I suggest a big V instead if is relaxing and a / if it is spring time.
Oh my gosh, what will the mort pig think of a bunny in the comments section?
jackk writes:
it's a truly globalized world - an upside down house in merced, ca causes another house in cork, ireland to drop in value.
jackk | 06.03.08 - 6:42 pm | #
But if you have to be upside down - where could be better than Cork?.
Well... I'm partial to Galway myself. Cork is too full of Hippies and English traveler types for my taste. Great food market though...
Leftys Liquors writes:
Do the Irish still put their cows and pigs in the houses at night?
Leftys Liquors | 06.03.08 - 8:29 pm | #
Only the ones that wear lipstick... like Mortgage Pig...
bruiser writes:
Emoticon for asshat...
3:-)
Bruiser:
Many thanks. LOL.
Explains why I'm not an artist.
Well... I'm partial to Galway myself. Cork is too full of Hippies and English traveler types for my taste. Great food market though...
Bob Mologna | 06.03.08 - 11:11 pm | #
Actually my father's family immigrated from near Galway - Co. Clare I believe though the surname is all over Limerick too. An old rugby buddy went over, got off the plane at Shannon & the first pub he saw was 'Dryfly's Pub'... well not exactly but the surname was the same... he told the proprietor all our rugby stories (parties mostly)... his money was no good there all night, they all but had to help him back to his hotel he was so drunk.
I was informed I gotta go there before I die...
In 2005 my brothers and I tried to buy 15 acres in County Fermanagh, a few miles from the development where the underwater investors walked.
But land prices were so outrageous, even by 2005 US standards, that we had to pass.
Prices over there may be collapsing, but so is the US dollar and my home equity and my 401k. Their collapse didn't start till 2007, so I won't be trying to buy some of the auld sod for a few years.
Ah Limerick, known locally as "stab city".
Bob Mologna writes:
Ah Limerick, known locally as "stab city".
Bob Mologna | 06.03.08 - 11:42 pm | #
It was worse back then - before my ancestors left.
What's the biggest musical group in Limerick?
Take That!!
Alec writes:
"You get sued for $25mm and 2 days later you're dead?"
Alec | 06.03.08 - 7:10 pm | #
Verb: "Suicided": occurrence wherein recently indicted mob frontman is frequently assisted in keeping quiet.
We have Bernanke and Congress who will save our housing markets. The Irish have something better, leprechauns. Yes, the leprechauns will save Irish real estate by covering the country with rainbows and making sure a pot of gold is found in each and every home.
Of course, this could drive gold down to 10$ but don't spoil their dreams.
Limerick is bad now but it was beyond bad 100 years ago. You've read Frank McCort? (I believe his name was).
When I was a lad I (1984 ish) was backpacking though the area and after coming across on the ferry from France ended up in Limerick and was about to pitch my tent next to the river. The local Gardai told me that the last people there were burnt out of their tent.
Did you notice the part near the end of video 2? It said the average UK mortgage rate in April for a 2 year fixed, 5% down mortgage was 7%.