Too Bad. I've eaten at Bennigan's many times. Not recently though. I liked the food. It wasn't too expensive. I could get a decent meal for around $10 including tip. Not familiar with the other 2.
I guess the winners in the too lazy to cook segment will be fast food and pizza delivery. Eveyone has to eat something. If they're eating less casual dining, they must be eating more of something else.
one bellweather for me is the volume of diners during lunch time at Bennigan type restaurants....for the past year these restaurants are less than 40% full during lunch....
OT: my national moving company lowered prices at the end of June (our Christmas season) for moves coming from Southern California. This hasn't happened since 1991.
for the past few years, retirees moving from California made up about 50%of my customer base....this year, out of state moves by retirees seems to be off by about 90%.....
"Casual dining is a discretionary expense and is frequently one of the first expenses that consumers reduce during hard times."
Make that crappy casual dining. Speaking anectdotally on trends I'm seeing in the Northeast, it's the marginal, badly managed businesses that are getting hurt first whether it's Bennigan's (casual dining) or Domain (mid-to-high end furniture).
"That comes as food prices for everything from corn to steak are on the rise."
My bro-in-law has a small chain of casual dining restaurants in the Portland area and he just implemented a price increase on the menus of 30% across the board. Hmmm, I wonder if the customers will notice?
Well yesterday was my youngest birthday, so as a small celebration we went to dinner last night at a local restaurant.
Just the 4 of us we all had meals and I had 1 drink, final tab for a family of four............$97.........
CR said: "Casual dining is a discretionary expense and is frequently one of the first expenses that consumers reduce during hard times."
That might be true but I don't know how it applies, since we clearly aren't in hard times.
Business Activity Index at 53.6%
New Orders Index at 53.6%
Employment Index at 48.7%
(Tempe, Arizona) Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector expanded in May, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
bid out spec's for a small steel building 3000sq ft. The response from suppliers was significant, with all providing large discounts, free shipping and 100% financing plus my e-mail and phone receive constant calls from sales people. Must be just a bit slow in the commerical building business.
"working on my garden plot as well...
we're all mulching now...
or, we're all mulch."
blackhat | 06.04.08 - 10:17 am | #
blackhat,
I was ready to get started on mine as well. It lost out to 15+ hours of OT a week thanks to announced retirements and no replacements. Personal freezes are good for some and not for others...Personally I freakin hate OT,but oh well.
8 bucks for "authentic" Irish southwest eggrolls is too much to pay in the best of times. The company has completely lost their moorings menu wise. I'm amazed they lasted as long as they did. The quality of food has dropped while most I've been to have over priced their drinks relative to the competition.
seed packet sales being reported on NPR? Wait till the Democrats pass the global poverty bill, or sign the Kyoto Treaty. Seed packets could become the new gold.
Yeah those Michigan Democrats are just dieing to bring Kyoto to the floor of the senate. Can we at least wait a couple months for the campaign craziness to sneak in?
Not to mention, this has obvious implications for commercial real estate. The strip malls are becoming ever more barren and bereft, filling up with a whole lot of nothing as vacancies go on the rise. In my town, they're still working on a new shopping center, even as two other shopping centers within walking distance pile up more empty storefronts. The other shopping centers also have plenty of space, and I've watched as several restaurants have gone out of business everywhere in the area.
not a fan of OT myself, but I do what pays the bills...it's nice to grow corn that doesn't cost 2 ears for a $1, and tomatoes that don't cost $2 a pound...my guess is a lot of people are going to learn about compost heaps, not just CDOs, but real useful crap...literally.
You know, I could get there in regards to housing. CR makes a respectable argument that housing prices could either fall further or just not go up for a few years and lose real value because of inflation. (I think he might be surprised, but at least I can understand his position.)
But this "recession/not recession" thing is getting almost too embarrassing for me to even offer counter-points any more. The evidence of continued expansion after a mild slowdown is just so obvious and confirmed by so many unrelated indicators that it's just not in keeping with CR's reasoned approach to keep hammering away at how "bad" things are.
Anecdotal After a movie this past Friday, wife and I visited the Cheesecake Factory... at 10PM and we had a 20 minute wait!! No shortage of free spenders here in Columbus, Ohio
I saw "casual dining", and "bankruptcy", and my first thought was, "please, not the IHOP!" I don't know what I was worried about, that fine establishment is probably rock-solid financially. How could they be otherwise? They've got the best German pancakes around--hey, they've got the only German pancakes around.
"But this "recession/not recession" thing is getting almost too embarrassing for me..." - Sebastian
Agreed. A keeper as well. And now Seb, before you complain that I took your single line out of context consider aren't you doing exactly the same thing? 21 months of manufacturing employment declines for instance.
"21 months of manufacturing employment declines for instance."
Doesn't fly as a general indicator, I think. Manufacturing has been on a slide for decades. Also, productivity gains have been significantly easier to grind out of manufacturing than services. YMMV.
Merrill analyst put $37 price tgt on LEH says not subject to same risks as Bear...
...I guess risk is relative, as in "what risk if the FED will backstop every bad takeover as averting systemic risk?"...at some point we have to announce that these deals are happening and are backstopped by the FED because systemic risk is already here...
hmm if all the American casual dining chains went out of business, I would say good riddance!
As a Canadian I found the restaurant options in Washington DC for a one week trip just horrible, absolutely horrible. Here are some of the places I ate:
Gross restaurants: Ruby Tuesday, IHOP, Bob Evans, Austin Grill in Rockville, applebees
Half - decent restaurants: "The Diner" (columbia heights)
In generally I found them overpriced, greasy, full of nasty processed crap like cheez whiz and just basically shitty tasting. I never shopped at Whole Foods once in my life but in DC we went looking for the one in Columbia Heights (?) just to get something half decent to eat, that didnt make you feel physically ill afterwards.
I think high commodity prices are going to put the US into a recession. I think food and oil prices are going higher. George Soros thinks commodities are in a bubble. I write about it today @ the speculator real estate first at theinvestingspeculator.com
As a Canadian I found the restaurant options in Washington DC for a one week trip just horrible, absolutely horrible.... I never shopped at Whole Foods once in my life but in DC we went looking for the one in Columbia Heights (?) just to get something half decent to eat, that didnt make you feel physically ill afterwards.
I find it interesting in the ISM report that the Real Estate and Construction industries appear to be quite strong according to the surveys. Seems to be at direct conflict with the data.
Bu who cares about the data. Right Seb?
Nothing surprising about hard times cutting some of the weak sisters out of the restaurant business.
Restaurant dining has been at an all-time high. In hard times, where could it go but downwards?
June Cleaver's not headed back to the kitchen anytime soon, but a lot of people have figured out that it doesn't take much discipline to throw together a sandwich for lunch, or take the leftovers with you. You lose is a little convenience -- but is it worth five or seven bucks?
We're in a recession. YoY housing prices fell far more than at any other time, including the depression...yes commodity & food up, but the point is that recessions happen independently of these events...you know, fundamental things like financial collapses, massive equity being wiped out quickly, non-productive endeavors that were over-valued finally being realized as non-value added commodities...whatever. Recession plus food plus commodity plus "wealth" being wiped out is a different animal...it'll just take 4 years to get to the d-word, but by then we'll call it something else--a challenging financial restructuring one-time event not to be repeated,...
I used to love In & Out Burgers. I stopped to grab a burger at one not too long ago and...pathetic. There was this sad, puny little grey wad of what I assume was meat on a huge bun, a paper thin slice of tomato and a piece of iceberg. It was tempting just to throw it away.
I guess the days of a fat juicy burger are gone...at least at In & Out.
They just put up a huge stand-alone shopping center in my town with Kohl's and Target as the anchor tenants. Then they have 6 prime retail spots in between these two.
This was a very expensive project mind you; and guess what store goes in right next to them?
A Dollar Store. (not a franchised brand either)
This shows the desperation from the owner of this project if he's willing to let this type of retailer in.
(Sidenote: This is in East Texas - the heart of the Oil Boom; we're supposed to be insulated from the rest of the country, no?)
They just put up a huge stand-alone shopping center in my town with Kohl's and Target as the anchor tenants....next to them?...A Dollar Store.
Doesn't seem like too much of a shocker. Kohls and Target are, for all that marketing, still discounters. If you're hitting a mid-to-low demographic, the dollar store would be the low. Not like it was anchored by a Nordstroms or a Central Market.
"They just put up a huge stand-alone shopping center in my town with Kohl's and Target as the anchor tenants.... and guess what store goes in right next to them? A Dollar Store. (not a franchised brand either)"
Could have been worse; could have been a check-cashing / payday lending operation. I'm seeing such things more and more in the newer strip malls and supermarket-anchored shopping centers.
Not really. Difference is between Real data and concocted perception of data juiced with a bunch of imaginary adjustments heavily infulenced by politics.
Bennigan's was a good place to go in the 80s. Not really sure how it still is in business. Must have run out of leprecauns who took them to their pot of gold.
"I was out Sunday at Lowes here in Columbus OH. I was surprised at how packed it was. The parking lot looked full and the 2 cashiers in the garden center were slammed with both lines 4 or 5 deep, for the whole time I was there.
The danger in extrapolating macro views from micro anecdotal data is dangerous though. I have noticed many more sold and sale pending signs lately. Sales from Franklin County are still lower than previous years, and inventory on the market is lower than last year, though creeping up. I suspect many sellers who pulled their listing have not put it back on the market though.
Funny how the County Auditor is holding prices steady at the assesed value from 3 years ago and spinning it how it helps people. Me thinks they do not want to have to take those values down, even though property taxes will not go down even if the assesssed value decreases; that is because of the way they have written the law in OH. Inside millage.
If I had to make a call: no major recession here, yet, though one could make the case that OH (and MI) have been in one all along. They are getting desperate here. It is palpable. Mayor is bitching about overtime with the public safety departments. Over 70% of the budget is earmarked for public safety. Reminded me of the article about Vallejo. Things are going to get worse before they get better. Surprising how long this has gone on, huh? LOL"
Though quite bearish, I do not see the signs here in Cbus of a major slowdown, yet. Then again, what do I know. The geniuses in the leadership positions seem to know so much more. I am going to continue to put my faith in them. They would not lead me astray, would they? Streetcars anyone?
Can we (I) please get some comment on FSBOs. In the hood where I live there are a growing number of FSBOs and it seems that this approach to selling would impact inventory, among other things. Any thoughts appreciated!
All my love,
B3
Re: May 30, 2008 -- The anti-competitive and anti-trust settlement reached on Tuesday between the U. S. Department of Justice and the National Association of Realtors on internet listings for home sellers creates a new competitive marketplace.
The new competitive landscape is perfectly suited for a new type of innovative multi-functional real estate website selling platform.
We had been preparing our next generation of website selling platforms for both licensed brokers and For-Sale-By-Owners since 2006, said Thomas Vass, owner of All Homes On The Web. I have been a licensed real estate broker in North Carolina since 1981, and never doubted for a second that the way the NAR was reacting to internet-based real estate listings would be held as an unreasonable restraint of trade.
The United States economy will grow just 1.2 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009, the O.E.C.D. predicted in the report, ascribing the downturn largely to the troubled housing markets.
But the worst outcome will be avoided as the decline in housing prices eases, credit conditions stabilize and inflation moderates as the commodity boom slows.
Since the darkest days back in March, things have improved, Mr. Elmeskov added, referring to the credit crisis that has clogged liquidity in the financial system, driving up market rates and crimping lending to consumers.
My brother is about 30 miles west of you. He has had a part time auto shop for over 10 years. For the last year he has never been busier. That said,in his area of the county he knows of 5 foreclosures within a couple of miles. Most dumbasses HELOC'd the house to the gills and pissed the cash away...
All the Bennigan's in AZ closed a couple three years ago.
Dumbest thing they ever did was install a drink counter on the POS. It cut you off after 2 drinks. While that may have been the smart thing to do for risk management, it's murder on the bottom line.
In Chandler 1 TGIF's closed when the CFC backoffice across the street closed, another one burn down in what appears to be a grease fire. As someone who cleaned more than my share of grease traps and been in the corporate kitchen, there's no way that happens unless management allows it. A great example of Philadelphia lightning.
Jeez you're a threadjacking pinhead, do you even bother reading the report?
Employment index number indicates contraction, price index was a higher gain than any other index.
Combine this tepid report with the contracting manufacturer index and this is your bull case? Puh-leaze.
some survey comments:: WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
* "Business activity for the last month has increased slightly over the previous month." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
* "High energy prices hurting the cost and sell side of our business." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
* "Economic and market conditions continue to weigh down financial services industry in general. Spending and employment growth are on hold until overall market conditions show improvement." (Finance & Insurance)
* "The economy continues to be pressured by high fuel costs and food costs in general. The consumer seems to approach spending with trepidation given all the uncertainty in the markets." (Accommodation & Food Services)
* "Business is picking up." (Retail Trade)
"Anecdotal After a movie this past Friday, wife and I visited the Cheesecake Factory... at 10PM and we had a 20 minute wait!! No shortage of free spenders here in Columbus, Ohio"
Go figure. I had the opposite experience several weeks ago just east of you in Pittsburgh. Sunday, late afternoon, beautiful weather, Outback Steakhouse where 45 minutes waits were always the norm -- ZERO wait, empty booths the ENTIRE TIME I was there (5 pm - 6:30 pm).
I paid $50 to fill the gas tank last night. And Mrs. Exception and I don't drive some dictator-empowering SUV - we have a economy-size sedan.
I can handle the extra few bucks, but springing $50 for gas sure reminds you to pack a lunch the next day. That sort of discretionary decision has got to have an impact at the macro level.
OT, having spent my share of time in Mordor-on-Potomac (hat tip to Badger boy), I should point out to Distance up north that judging DC dining options by an Applebee's in Rockville (which is in Maryland, for the fer'ners) is like judging Manhattan cuisine based on a Chick-Fil-A in Queens.
There are good and awful restaurants in DC. But if you want to judge their merits, it helps to actually, you know, go there.
Macro man wrote:
'Though quite bearish, I do not see the signs here in Cbus of a major slowdown, yet. Then again, what do I know. The geniuses in the leadership positions seem to know so much more. I am going to continue to put my faith in them. They would not lead me astray, would they? Streetcars anyone?'
MacroMan | 06.04.08 - 12:11 pm |
I have lived in C'bus since 1977 and it has always been somewhat recession proof. Unlike other mid-western cities, it has little manufacturing and lots of white-collar jobs and of course Gov. jobs and a huge university. Growing up during the 70's and 80's in Columbus you could hardly tell there were tough economic times.
I was commenting more on casual dining/family restaurants because of the post, and because while I was there I was working and spending a fair bit of time in the burbs so those were the kinds of joints I found myself forced to eat at. I'm sure there are good restaurants, just like in every city.
Still though, I've spent time in NYC and even in Queens or Jersey City you can get great food. During the time I spent in DC itself, it just did not seem to have very many good restaurants on the streets compared to NYC, Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver or SF (cities I would consider to have good restaurants).
No disagreement there, but DC is the smallest of any of the cities you list. You need people to support restaurants, and gov't employees aren't exactly dropping big bucks on meals. Per capita, DC isn't bad. But it is basically a small town.
And yes, it was unfair for me to knock Queens. I'm sure there are good places to eat there. Just not LaGuardia.
To get back on topic, I think that's another reason why the DC met area is somewhat more recession-proof: a substantial percentage of its consumers'/spenders' fortunes are a function of government spending, which is less linked to the rising or falling tide of the economy.
MacroMan writes:
"...property taxes will not go down even if the assesssed value decreases; that is because of the way they have written the law in OH."
My CA 'tax grievance specialist' is filing my appeal when the window opens July 2 and expects to lower my RE tax by 1/3, for a fee of 25% of the 1st year saving, and believes lower prices in '09 will warrant another appeal.
Number Fun: CA property taxes are 42 BIL/25% of yearly state income of 170 BIL. How much higher than 18 BIL can the deficit go?
I live in Vancouver and travel extensively all over the states for running and family visit. IMHO you get so much better value and choices in the States in general. Casual Dinning in Vancouver is expensive and pretentious.
BTW the Poutine joke doesn't work for English Canadian, they most likely don't know what it is. It's actually a French Canadian delicacy and yes it will pack an artery. Next time you visit Quebec try the poor man version at BK or McDonald.
seb is right that there are minimal signs of recession. IMO we will get there as problems expand from home building to cre, and as previous spending collapses from credit contraction. Slow to start, eventually deep and long. Note that all the case shiller housing curves are still cliff diving, no end in sight... how could there be an end while reo's are climbing? And, how could there be a recovery before the option arm wave passes?
As far as markets go, periodic rallies followed by sharp, violent downturns that are immediately followed by a violent bounce are typical of bear markets. Next bottom/bounce w/e june 20.
first finally
I think you're using the "R" word a bit loosely.
Dining is more likely the victim of petroleum pricing--or at the very least, petroleum is as much a contributor as a yet-to-be-found "R".
"R" word? Reduce?
Too Bad. I've eaten at Bennigan's many times. Not recently though. I liked the food. It wasn't too expensive. I could get a decent meal for around $10 including tip. Not familiar with the other 2.
I guess the winners in the too lazy to cook segment will be fast food and pizza delivery. Eveyone has to eat something. If they're eating less casual dining, they must be eating more of something else.
Goodbye, Jameson Fillet Steak. Hello, Spam!
Casual dining is a discretionary expense and is frequently one of the first expenses that consumers reduce during hard times.
Harpooneer raises hand...
Anonymous writes:
"R" word? Reduce?
I was thinking "Ruby Tuesday's".
I went to Bennigan's once, but I've never been again.
one bellweather for me is the volume of diners during lunch time at Bennigan type restaurants....for the past year these restaurants are less than 40% full during lunch....
OT: my national moving company lowered prices at the end of June (our Christmas season) for moves coming from Southern California. This hasn't happened since 1991.
for the past few years, retirees moving from California made up about 50%of my customer base....this year, out of state moves by retirees seems to be off by about 90%.....
Time to collect bacon grease again in coffee cans for that poor mans buttery spread...don't think this is worthy of the R-word...d-word, yes.
How RRGB is still above 30 is one of the great mystery's of the market.
I looked at it's msg board on Yhoo and saw this gem of a post:
"the root beer float machine will solve the buyback (franchisee) problems."
They were serious...
Ciao
MS
"Casual dining is a discretionary expense and is frequently one of the first expenses that consumers reduce during hard times."
Make that crappy casual dining. Speaking anectdotally on trends I'm seeing in the Northeast, it's the marginal, badly managed businesses that are getting hurt first whether it's Bennigan's (casual dining) or Domain (mid-to-high end furniture).
"That comes as food prices for everything from corn to steak are on the rise."
My bro-in-law has a small chain of casual dining restaurants in the Portland area and he just implemented a price increase on the menus of 30% across the board. Hmmm, I wonder if the customers will notice?
Well yesterday was my youngest birthday, so as a small celebration we went to dinner last night at a local restaurant.
Just the 4 of us we all had meals and I had 1 drink, final tab for a family of four............$97.........
Another bell-weather as reported on NPR is that sales of vegetable seedpacks is up 20% YoY. Same thing happened in 2001, 1991, 1981...
working on my garden plot as well...
we're all mulching now...
or, we're all mulch.
CR said: "Casual dining is a discretionary expense and is frequently one of the first expenses that consumers reduce during hard times."
That might be true but I don't know how it applies, since we clearly aren't in hard times.
Business Activity Index at 53.6%
New Orders Index at 53.6%
Employment Index at 48.7%
(Tempe, Arizona) Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector expanded in May, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
ISM - ISM Report - November 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
Sebastia
Looks like Sebastian has his morning dose of crack flavored coffee this morning.
OT
bid out spec's for a small steel building 3000sq ft. The response from suppliers was significant, with all providing large discounts, free shipping and 100% financing plus my e-mail and phone receive constant calls from sales people. Must be just a bit slow in the commerical building business.
Seb - "That might be true but I don't know how it applies, since we clearly aren't in hard times."
Uh huh. Noise on the down trend. So, are you buying equities on this false reading? PLEASE, Let us know!
crack-flavored coffee beans or coffee flarvored crack? ...the latter I think...
"working on my garden plot as well...
we're all mulching now...
or, we're all mulch."
blackhat | 06.04.08 - 10:17 am | #
blackhat,
I was ready to get started on mine as well. It lost out to 15+ hours of OT a week thanks to announced retirements and no replacements. Personal freezes are good for some and not for others...Personally I freakin hate OT,but oh well.
Chris
8 bucks for "authentic" Irish southwest eggrolls is too much to pay in the best of times. The company has completely lost their moorings menu wise. I'm amazed they lasted as long as they did. The quality of food has dropped while most I've been to have over priced their drinks relative to the competition.
seed packet sales being reported on NPR? Wait till the Democrats pass the global poverty bill, or sign the Kyoto Treaty. Seed packets could become the new gold.
Yeah those Michigan Democrats are just dieing to bring Kyoto to the floor of the senate. Can we at least wait a couple months for the campaign craziness to sneak in?
Not to mention, this has obvious implications for commercial real estate. The strip malls are becoming ever more barren and bereft, filling up with a whole lot of nothing as vacancies go on the rise. In my town, they're still working on a new shopping center, even as two other shopping centers within walking distance pile up more empty storefronts. The other shopping centers also have plenty of space, and I've watched as several restaurants have gone out of business everywhere in the area.
cobradriver,
not a fan of OT myself, but I do what pays the bills...it's nice to grow corn that doesn't cost 2 ears for a $1, and tomatoes that don't cost $2 a pound...my guess is a lot of people are going to learn about compost heaps, not just CDOs, but real useful crap...literally.
barely said: "Uh huh. Noise on the down trend."
You know, I could get there in regards to housing. CR makes a respectable argument that housing prices could either fall further or just not go up for a few years and lose real value because of inflation. (I think he might be surprised, but at least I can understand his position.)
But this "recession/not recession" thing is getting almost too embarrassing for me to even offer counter-points any more. The evidence of continued expansion after a mild slowdown is just so obvious and confirmed by so many unrelated indicators that it's just not in keeping with CR's reasoned approach to keep hammering away at how "bad" things are.
Sebastia
Anecdotal After a movie this past Friday, wife and I visited the Cheesecake Factory... at 10PM and we had a 20 minute wait!! No shortage of free spenders here in Columbus, Ohio
Sebastian,
Do you also think the Iraq war was/is a good thing? Are you in agreement with the way it's being "funded?"
I saw "casual dining", and "bankruptcy", and my first thought was, "please, not the IHOP!" I don't know what I was worried about, that fine establishment is probably rock-solid financially. How could they be otherwise? They've got the best German pancakes around--hey, they've got the only German pancakes around.
We'll miss you, Sebastian....
re:Cheesecake factory at 10PM
I believe Ohioans only have 5 more months to store up for the winter.
Wow, where are these empty restaurants and empty highways of which you all speak.
I pine for such niceties here in Mordor-on-Potomac (Washington dc metro).
Sebastian, with all due respect, your a fucking nut job to say the least. Do you work at Disney land?
"But this "recession/not recession" thing is getting almost too embarrassing for me..." - Sebastian
Agreed. A keeper as well. And now Seb, before you complain that I took your single line out of context consider aren't you doing exactly the same thing? 21 months of manufacturing employment declines for instance.
I've always confused Seb. with a bodhisattva myself.
Looks like LEH found a sucker.....
Ciao
MS
blackhat writes:
Time to collect bacon grease again in coffee cans for that poor mans buttery spread...
poor man's buttery spead my ass.
that's a local delicacy here in vienna, and not for the poor.
"21 months of manufacturing employment declines for instance."
Doesn't fly as a general indicator, I think. Manufacturing has been on a slide for decades. Also, productivity gains have been significantly easier to grind out of manufacturing than services. YMMV.
that's a local delicacy here in vienna, and not for the poor.
Anonymous | 06.04.08 - 11:16 am
with lots of added garlic and boy does that bring back fond memories ....
Merrill analyst put $37 price tgt on LEH says not subject to same risks as Bear...
Merrill analyst put $37 price tgt on LEH says not subject to same risks as Bear...
...I guess risk is relative, as in "what risk if the FED will backstop every bad takeover as averting systemic risk?"...at some point we have to announce that these deals are happening and are backstopped by the FED because systemic risk is already here...
But then why is Lehman borrowing from the TAF to buy its own shares? Are they in trouble? Or do they just want to "hurt the shorts"?
Is It Getting Personal at Lehman? - Barrons.com
hmm if all the American casual dining chains went out of business, I would say good riddance!
As a Canadian I found the restaurant options in Washington DC for a one week trip just horrible, absolutely horrible. Here are some of the places I ate:
Gross restaurants: Ruby Tuesday, IHOP, Bob Evans, Austin Grill in Rockville, applebees
Half - decent restaurants: "The Diner" (columbia heights)
In generally I found them overpriced, greasy, full of nasty processed crap like cheez whiz and just basically shitty tasting. I never shopped at Whole Foods once in my life but in DC we went looking for the one in Columbia Heights (?) just to get something half decent to eat, that didnt make you feel physically ill afterwards.
I think high commodity prices are going to put the US into a recession. I think food and oil prices are going higher. George Soros thinks commodities are in a bubble. I write about it today @ the speculator real estate first at theinvestingspeculator.com
As a Canadian I found the restaurant options in Washington DC for a one week trip just horrible, absolutely horrible.... I never shopped at Whole Foods once in my life but in DC we went looking for the one in Columbia Heights (?) just to get something half decent to eat, that didnt make you feel physically ill afterwards.
What, you mean like poutine?
I find it interesting in the ISM report that the Real Estate and Construction industries appear to be quite strong according to the surveys. Seems to be at direct conflict with the data.
Bu who cares about the data. Right Seb?
"What, you mean like poutine?
BG | 06.04.08 - 11:42 am |"
lol.. touche
Nothing surprising about hard times cutting some of the weak sisters out of the restaurant business.
Restaurant dining has been at an all-time high. In hard times, where could it go but downwards?
June Cleaver's not headed back to the kitchen anytime soon, but a lot of people have figured out that it doesn't take much discipline to throw together a sandwich for lunch, or take the leftovers with you. You lose is a little convenience -- but is it worth five or seven bucks?
Speculator:
We're in a recession. YoY housing prices fell far more than at any other time, including the depression...yes commodity & food up, but the point is that recessions happen independently of these events...you know, fundamental things like financial collapses, massive equity being wiped out quickly, non-productive endeavors that were over-valued finally being realized as non-value added commodities...whatever. Recession plus food plus commodity plus "wealth" being wiped out is a different animal...it'll just take 4 years to get to the d-word, but by then we'll call it something else--a challenging financial restructuring one-time event not to be repeated,...
Seems to be at direct conflict with the data.
Bu who cares about the data. Right Seb?
Aren't they both data? Granted, each datum appears to point in a different direction.
I used to love In & Out Burgers. I stopped to grab a burger at one not too long ago and...pathetic. There was this sad, puny little grey wad of what I assume was meat on a huge bun, a paper thin slice of tomato and a piece of iceberg. It was tempting just to throw it away.
I guess the days of a fat juicy burger are gone...at least at In & Out.
Re: CRE
They just put up a huge stand-alone shopping center in my town with Kohl's and Target as the anchor tenants. Then they have 6 prime retail spots in between these two.
This was a very expensive project mind you; and guess what store goes in right next to them?
A Dollar Store. (not a franchised brand either)
This shows the desperation from the owner of this project if he's willing to let this type of retailer in.
(Sidenote: This is in East Texas - the heart of the Oil Boom; we're supposed to be insulated from the rest of the country, no?)
They just put up a huge stand-alone shopping center in my town with Kohl's and Target as the anchor tenants....next to them?...A Dollar Store.
Doesn't seem like too much of a shocker. Kohls and Target are, for all that marketing, still discounters. If you're hitting a mid-to-low demographic, the dollar store would be the low. Not like it was anchored by a Nordstroms or a Central Market.
"They just put up a huge stand-alone shopping center in my town with Kohl's and Target as the anchor tenants.... and guess what store goes in right next to them? A Dollar Store. (not a franchised brand either)"
Could have been worse; could have been a check-cashing / payday lending operation. I'm seeing such things more and more in the newer strip malls and supermarket-anchored shopping centers.
BG - "Aren't they both data?"
Not really. Difference is between Real data and concocted perception of data juiced with a bunch of imaginary adjustments heavily infulenced by politics.
I suppose more Americans will now try and learn how to cook and eat right so they can begin to shed pounds from their overweight and bloated bodies.
Bennigan's was a good place to go in the 80s. Not really sure how it still is in business. Must have run out of leprecauns who took them to their pot of gold.
George Carlin on unenlightened Americans, endless shopping malls, eating and FAT PEOPLE
YouTube -
formerly known as..
I posted this over on the Ticker Forum.
"I was out Sunday at Lowes here in Columbus OH. I was surprised at how packed it was. The parking lot looked full and the 2 cashiers in the garden center were slammed with both lines 4 or 5 deep, for the whole time I was there.
The danger in extrapolating macro views from micro anecdotal data is dangerous though. I have noticed many more sold and sale pending signs lately. Sales from Franklin County are still lower than previous years, and inventory on the market is lower than last year, though creeping up. I suspect many sellers who pulled their listing have not put it back on the market though.
Funny how the County Auditor is holding prices steady at the assesed value from 3 years ago and spinning it how it helps people. Me thinks they do not want to have to take those values down, even though property taxes will not go down even if the assesssed value decreases; that is because of the way they have written the law in OH. Inside millage.
If I had to make a call: no major recession here, yet, though one could make the case that OH (and MI) have been in one all along. They are getting desperate here. It is palpable. Mayor is bitching about overtime with the public safety departments. Over 70% of the budget is earmarked for public safety. Reminded me of the article about Vallejo. Things are going to get worse before they get better. Surprising how long this has gone on, huh? LOL"
Though quite bearish, I do not see the signs here in Cbus of a major slowdown, yet. Then again, what do I know. The geniuses in the leadership positions seem to know so much more. I am going to continue to put my faith in them. They would not lead me astray, would they? Streetcars anyone?
CR & Tanta,
Can we (I) please get some comment on FSBOs. In the hood where I live there are a growing number of FSBOs and it seems that this approach to selling would impact inventory, among other things. Any thoughts appreciated!
All my love,
B3
Re: May 30, 2008 -- The anti-competitive and anti-trust settlement reached on Tuesday between the U. S. Department of Justice and the National Association of Realtors on internet listings for home sellers creates a new competitive marketplace.
The new competitive landscape is perfectly suited for a new type of innovative multi-functional real estate website selling platform.
We had been preparing our next generation of website selling platforms for both licensed brokers and For-Sale-By-Owners since 2006, said Thomas Vass, owner of All Homes On The Web. I have been a licensed real estate broker in North Carolina since 1981, and never doubted for a second that the way the NAR was reacting to internet-based real estate listings would be held as an unreasonable restraint of trade.
OT (again):
O.E.C.D. Cuts Its Growth Forecast
- NY Times
The United States economy will grow just 1.2 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009, the O.E.C.D. predicted in the report, ascribing the downturn largely to the troubled housing markets.
But the worst outcome will be avoided as the decline in housing prices eases, credit conditions stabilize and inflation moderates as the commodity boom slows.
Since the darkest days back in March, things have improved, Mr. Elmeskov added, referring to the credit crisis that has clogged liquidity in the financial system, driving up market rates and crimping lending to consumers.
Badger boy-
Mordor-on-Potomac
I live in DC metro, and that line killed me. Thanks for the laugh.
-Jaso
MacroMan | 06.04.08 - 12:11 pm |
My brother is about 30 miles west of you. He has had a part time auto shop for over 10 years. For the last year he has never been busier. That said,in his area of the county he knows of 5 foreclosures within a couple of miles. Most dumbasses HELOC'd the house to the gills and pissed the cash away...
Chris
All the Bennigan's in AZ closed a couple three years ago.
Dumbest thing they ever did was install a drink counter on the POS. It cut you off after 2 drinks. While that may have been the smart thing to do for risk management, it's murder on the bottom line.
In Chandler 1 TGIF's closed when the CFC backoffice across the street closed, another one burn down in what appears to be a grease fire. As someone who cleaned more than my share of grease traps and been in the corporate kitchen, there's no way that happens unless management allows it. A great example of Philadelphia lightning.
It's mostly overpriced factory food that has been sitting in a freezer, then microwaved.
Sebastian,
Jeez you're a threadjacking pinhead, do you even bother reading the report?
Employment index number indicates contraction, price index was a higher gain than any other index.
Combine this tepid report with the contracting manufacturer index and this is your bull case? Puh-leaze.
some survey comments::
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
* "Business activity for the last month has increased slightly over the previous month." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
* "High energy prices hurting the cost and sell side of our business." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
* "Economic and market conditions continue to weigh down financial services industry in general. Spending and employment growth are on hold until overall market conditions show improvement." (Finance & Insurance)
* "The economy continues to be pressured by high fuel costs and food costs in general. The consumer seems to approach spending with trepidation given all the uncertainty in the markets." (Accommodation & Food Services)
* "Business is picking up." (Retail Trade)
Farting thru silk, baby!!!
"Anecdotal After a movie this past Friday, wife and I visited the Cheesecake Factory... at 10PM and we had a 20 minute wait!! No shortage of free spenders here in Columbus, Ohio"
Go figure. I had the opposite experience several weeks ago just east of you in Pittsburgh. Sunday, late afternoon, beautiful weather, Outback Steakhouse where 45 minutes waits were always the norm -- ZERO wait, empty booths the ENTIRE TIME I was there (5 pm - 6:30 pm).
Cheesecake Factory is the world fanciest diner. Pay 2x and the food's just as crappy as any greasy spoon, all the need are pizzaburgers.
I paid $50 to fill the gas tank last night. And Mrs. Exception and I don't drive some dictator-empowering SUV - we have a economy-size sedan.
I can handle the extra few bucks, but springing $50 for gas sure reminds you to pack a lunch the next day. That sort of discretionary decision has got to have an impact at the macro level.
OT, having spent my share of time in Mordor-on-Potomac (hat tip to Badger boy), I should point out to Distance up north that judging DC dining options by an Applebee's in Rockville (which is in Maryland, for the fer'ners) is like judging Manhattan cuisine based on a Chick-Fil-A in Queens.
There are good and awful restaurants in DC. But if you want to judge their merits, it helps to actually, you know, go there.
Macro man wrote:
'Though quite bearish, I do not see the signs here in Cbus of a major slowdown, yet. Then again, what do I know. The geniuses in the leadership positions seem to know so much more. I am going to continue to put my faith in them. They would not lead me astray, would they? Streetcars anyone?'
MacroMan | 06.04.08 - 12:11 pm |
I have lived in C'bus since 1977 and it has always been somewhat recession proof. Unlike other mid-western cities, it has little manufacturing and lots of white-collar jobs and of course Gov. jobs and a huge university. Growing up during the 70's and 80's in Columbus you could hardly tell there were tough economic times.
FatalException,
I was commenting more on casual dining/family restaurants because of the post, and because while I was there I was working and spending a fair bit of time in the burbs so those were the kinds of joints I found myself forced to eat at. I'm sure there are good restaurants, just like in every city.
Still though, I've spent time in NYC and even in Queens or Jersey City you can get great food. During the time I spent in DC itself, it just did not seem to have very many good restaurants on the streets compared to NYC, Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver or SF (cities I would consider to have good restaurants).
Distance,
No disagreement there, but DC is the smallest of any of the cities you list. You need people to support restaurants, and gov't employees aren't exactly dropping big bucks on meals. Per capita, DC isn't bad. But it is basically a small town.
And yes, it was unfair for me to knock Queens. I'm sure there are good places to eat there. Just not LaGuardia.
To get back on topic, I think that's another reason why the DC met area is somewhat more recession-proof: a substantial percentage of its consumers'/spenders' fortunes are a function of government spending, which is less linked to the rising or falling tide of the economy.
MacroMan writes:
"...property taxes will not go down even if the assesssed value decreases; that is because of the way they have written the law in OH."
My CA 'tax grievance specialist' is filing my appeal when the window opens July 2 and expects to lower my RE tax by 1/3, for a fee of 25% of the 1st year saving, and believes lower prices in '09 will warrant another appeal.
Number Fun: CA property taxes are 42 BIL/25% of yearly state income of 170 BIL. How much higher than 18 BIL can the deficit go?
US versus Canada on Casual Dinning.
I live in Vancouver and travel extensively all over the states for running and family visit. IMHO you get so much better value and choices in the States in general. Casual Dinning in Vancouver is expensive and pretentious.
BTW the Poutine joke doesn't work for English Canadian, they most likely don't know what it is. It's actually a French Canadian delicacy and yes it will pack an artery. Next time you visit Quebec try the poor man version at BK or McDonald.
How-to-Cook-at-Home programs from the Food Network are going to make advertisers salivate...literally!
Ultraman- some of the best poutine in Canada is at Whistler in BC... try a deep dish pie pan of it when you come off the slopes in the afternoon!
The cheap poutine in Ontario is at KFC!
more pOuTine:
What is poutine?
YouTube - Poutine!
Homemade poutine
YouTube - Poutine, anyone??
badger boy writes:
Wow, where are these empty restaurants and empty highways of which you all speak.
I pine for such niceties here in Mordor-on-Potomac (Washington dc metro).
Well, Cheesecake Factory at Fair Oaks seems moribund. Went there a couple of Sunday's ago - prime restaurant hours. No wait -- lots of empty tables.
Meanwhile, down the corridor, American Cafe and Uno's had both recently closed up shop for good.
Alec writes:
Cheesecake Factory is the world fanciest diner. Pay 2x and the food's just as crappy as any greasy spoon..."
Yes, but you get a lot more of it!
What kills casual dining is tax and tips.
I like places like Outback, and the prices are not much more then what it costs to fix it at home, but the tax and tip add 30% and piss you off.
So you fix it at home.
seb is right that there are minimal signs of recession. IMO we will get there as problems expand from home building to cre, and as previous spending collapses from credit contraction. Slow to start, eventually deep and long. Note that all the case shiller housing curves are still cliff diving, no end in sight... how could there be an end while reo's are climbing? And, how could there be a recovery before the option arm wave passes?
As far as markets go, periodic rallies followed by sharp, violent downturns that are immediately followed by a violent bounce are typical of bear markets. Next bottom/bounce w/e june 20.