Elvis, that data isn't published. This is just applications - and the existing and new home reports will tell us about the number of sales.
In the old days, this index led sales pretty well. But the index lost all value when so many mortgage lenders went out of business (because of the sampling that is used when the index is constructed).
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 593.3, a decrease of 4.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 621.6 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4.6 percent compared with the previous week and was down 7.5 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The Refinance Index decreased 8.9 percent to 2013.5 from 2210.5 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent to 352.7 from 352.5 one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index increased 0.8 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) decreased 2.2 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the Conventional Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent to 517.7 from 517.0 the previous week.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1 percent to 636.2 from 629.6. The four week moving average is up 0.9 percent to 366.2 from 363.1 for the Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.2 percent to 2230.0 from 2202.9 for the Refinance Index.
So confused... the above is the data I see at the MBA linked page, completely different than the data in the CR post. What am I missing?
U.S. home prices may fall as much as 30 percent over the next four years and push high-yield bond valuations close to levels seen during the last recession, a J.P. Morgan analyst said on Wednesday
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Just working on a small sample size in my local area but I can say there isn't a strong correlation between mortgage applications and approved mortgages these days.
I was actually surprised to learn that they won't even do a "no doc" with a 50% downpayment on a house worth $250K.
I just sold the last of my homebuilder outs, they were put spreads on the index. I think this is the first time in three years I had no bets against homebuilders. Makes me feel kind of naked.
Oil inventories are down because shipments to the Gulf are down. Venezuela and Mexico have peaked and are using more of their own oil. Gas is going to continue to go up. My son is thinking of trading his small pickup in for a motorcycle. We have to drive 65 miles for groceries. Also, one of the two local gas stations in this small SW New Mexico town is fixing to close. The bookmobile has eliminated our town as a stopping point. And so it goes.
"Although we can't compare directly to earlier periods because of the changes in the index, this does suggest that sales of homes are continuing to decline."
Tell me something I didn't know.
There are 21 houses for sale in our (relatively middling) price range in our town. There is "action" on four of them.
Someone at JPMC finally agrees that the "30% decline" being tossed about as worst-case at the end of 2007 may not be the end? I hate being right.
first
Stock mkt is way down already.
Is today the day we have a "black Wednesday"?
whats driving the market down today ? tomatoes ?
CR, Are there any stats available about the % of applications accepted versus declined today? Any LT charts?
Elvis, that data isn't published. This is just applications - and the existing and new home reports will tell us about the number of sales.
In the old days, this index led sales pretty well. But the index lost all value when so many mortgage lenders went out of business (because of the sampling that is used when the index is constructed).
Best Wishes.
/de writes:
whats driving the market down today ? tomatoes ?
Crude supplies down more than expected , for the last 3 weeks too.
Note that crude is up 3 bucks.
WM just took back everything from yesterday and then some. WM, WB, LEH - these are dead dogs.
Is it me or is WM being singled out for a spectacular spanking in the past few days? It's really a dramatic drop.
Whoops, more coffee required. Meant to post that to the previous thread.
"whats driving the market down today ? tomatoes ?"
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 593.3, a decrease of 4.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 621.6 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4.6 percent compared with the previous week and was down 7.5 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The Refinance Index decreased 8.9 percent to 2013.5 from 2210.5 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent to 352.7 from 352.5 one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index increased 0.8 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) decreased 2.2 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the Conventional Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent to 517.7 from 517.0 the previous week.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1 percent to 636.2 from 629.6. The four week moving average is up 0.9 percent to 366.2 from 363.1 for the Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.2 percent to 2230.0 from 2202.9 for the Refinance Index.
So confused... the above is the data I see at the MBA linked page, completely different than the data in the CR post. What am I missing?
deb, first, I linked to an old report - I fixed the link. Second, the four week moving average is down (not up as reported by the MBA).
Here is the MBA sentence:
The four week moving average is up 1.7 percent to 353.8 from 354.3 for the Purchase Index ...
Up to 353.8 from 354.3? They meant down.
Best Wishes.
"Up to 353.8 from 354.3? They meant down. "
An innocent slip, I'm sure.
U.S. home prices may fall as much as 30 percent over the next four years and push high-yield bond valuations close to levels seen during the last recession, a J.P. Morgan analyst said on Wednesday
CORRECTED - US home prices may dip 30 pct, junk bonds weaken-JPM
| Reuters
It's contained........agai
Anonymous writes:
"Up to 353.8 from 354.3? They meant down. "
An innocent slip, I'm sure.
I'm sure they just cut-and pasted a pre-prepared report and forgot to make the change.
This email on LEN trading arrived this morning (I am long puts):
While optionsXpress strives to allow our customers the most flexibility when trading on leverage, occasionally it becomes necessary to increase our requirements on equity positions to account for increased volatility, low market capitalization, low trading volume or other market factors.
This email is to notify you that the margin requirements on LEN have been changed to:
Stock Requirement: 65%
Naked Option Requirement: 35%
Portfolio Margin Theoretical Range: 40%
If your account is not currently using margin, the only impact this change will have is in a reduction in overall buying power. If your account is already using margin or is short uncovered options, this change may result in a margin call, if so you will receive a separate e-mail notification.
If you have any further questions or concerns please reply to this e-mail, or you please contact us through Live Help for further assistance.
Sincerely,
Fred E. Cadena, Vice President, Risk and Margin
www.optionsXpress.com
JP, right you are. The volume over the last four days has been double and triple the normal volume for the same time. People want out big time.
Just working on a small sample size in my local area but I can say there isn't a strong correlation between mortgage applications and approved mortgages these days.
I was actually surprised to learn that they won't even do a "no doc" with a 50% downpayment on a house worth $250K.
I just sold the last of my homebuilder outs, they were put spreads on the index. I think this is the first time in three years I had no bets against homebuilders. Makes me feel kind of naked.
Oil inventories are down because shipments to the Gulf are down. Venezuela and Mexico have peaked and are using more of their own oil. Gas is going to continue to go up. My son is thinking of trading his small pickup in for a motorcycle. We have to drive 65 miles for groceries. Also, one of the two local gas stations in this small SW New Mexico town is fixing to close. The bookmobile has eliminated our town as a stopping point. And so it goes.
prairiedog,
At least you've got a convenient supply of Hatch green chiles.
"Although we can't compare directly to earlier periods because of the changes in the index, this does suggest that sales of homes are continuing to decline."
Tell me something I didn't know.
There are 21 houses for sale in our (relatively middling) price range in our town. There is "action" on four of them.
Someone at JPMC finally agrees that the "30% decline" being tossed about as worst-case at the end of 2007 may not be the end? I hate being right.