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Great post, CR.
Is this inflation adjusted? I sure feel like I am spending more on necessities but buying less in general.
MoT, the blue line is real (inflation adjusted) retail spending.
Best Wishes.
One thing that's been striking me as bizarre is the continued rise in spending at food services & drinking places, up about 5-6% yoy.
If consumers felt under great pressure, wouldn't that be one of the first areas to take a hit?
It will be interesting to see what the 1st quarter MEW numbers are.
Quarterly, $160 Billion ought to do it. Eighty a piece from the Saudis and the Chinese and I think we've got a solution rite there folks.
Great post. Clarity is like a breathe of fresh air. Marketwatch, WSJ and others who want some lessons in analysis should take note.
Thanks CR, my head is in the clouds this morning. Got Ritalin?
Some of the increase is also due to cuts in prices, with companies absorbing large increases in raw material costs.
One anecdote: I went to Taco Bell yesterday for the first time in about 4 months to check out the new menu they were advertising on the side of their building.
Despite rapidly increasing food costs, prices are even lower than before. New menu items include a small order of nachos for 79 cents and a new "Double Beef and Cheese" burrito for 99 cents. Both were quite tasty.
great post CR, I only have two very small qualms/questions.
1)
$48b of stimulus checks have been sent out, but we don't know how much of that has been SPENT yet.
thus, is it not possible that we've only seen partial effects from the stimulus checks? in other words, we may see continued spending from the stimulus check over the course of teh summer, no?
do we know how long on average Americans spend their stimulus (is it similar to tax rebates as example? is there data?)
2)
we can't truly say that the effect of the stimulus check was only $3.8b even though we only saw a $3.8b rise in retail spending. because it is theoretically possible that without the stiumulus we would have seen minus $45b in retail spending, no?
we only know what DID happen, not what would have happened without the stimulus.
Fuel oil is included in retail sales. Nuff said?
Bob,
The segments to which you refer are some of those impacted the most by rising prices. They aren't selling more food and drink, just charging more for what they sell.
I really wonder if people know how to cook/eat at home anymore. I mean, deciding whether or not you need a new shirt at A&F is one thing, but everyone still has to eat. And given the long term trends towards eating out, I'm not sure that behavior is easy to change overnight.
Safeway (and other grocery stores) consider fast food restaurants their biggest threat, even more than Walmart. That is why they've switched to lots of prepared foods over the last few years.
Bob_in_MA writes:
One thing that's been striking me as bizarre is the continued rise in spending at food services & drinking places, up about 5-6% yoy.
If consumers felt under great pressure, wouldn't that be one of the first areas to take a hit?
More & more people don't know how to cook - even minimally. I know its sounds crazy but we have a tails effect paradox... more people are 'gourmet cooks' than ever before at the same time more people can't even microwave water. Whatever happened to just adequate competency?
The increase in restaurant dining in spite of economic pressure comes as no surprise to me - some of these folks would starve without restaurants.
Gasoline stations are reponsible for $ 1.1bn of that $ 3.8bn monthly increase and $ 5.2bn of the $ 9.2bn yearly increase.
The adjustment factors for gasoline look wrong to the eye as well. $ 38.2bn to $ 43.5bn adjusted compared to $ 40.8bn to $ 47.1bn unadjusted.
Anyone have an insight on the factor that gets used?
kis beat me too it - same idea.
kis, of course Safeway consider fast food restaurants their biggest threat. It is cheaper to eat out than shop at Safeway sometimes.
Bob_in_MA | 06.12.08 - 10:45 am | #
Bob,
I have mentioned this a couple of times. I think debt levels are unevenly distributed among the people who have them. From asking around it seems most people have very little debt or freaking insane amounts. The people with insane amounts are f^*&$d. I know LOTS of people who didn't get themselves in any kind of financial bind at all in the last 6-7 years...Like me they are laughing at the over extended idiots right now.
Chris
GW-
There are other costs associated with eating that type of food...Save now?
Pay later...
Ciao
MS
"Fuel oil is included in retail sales"
This is the caveat.
Ministry of Truth writes:
kis, of course Safeway consider fast food restaurants their biggest threat. It is cheaper to eat out than shop at Safeway sometimes.
Ministry of Truth | 06.12.08 - 11:02 am | #
Never. Not unless you buy all 'high end, premium label prepared foods' and then compare the price of ultra cheap fast food to it. That is not an apples to apples comparison.
All the "gains" based on those wonderful upward revisions.....
meanwhile oil is "only" how much today...
Phewww...thought we had a problem for a second
Ciao
MS
CR,
Can we have the recession bars in the chart?
Despite the spin, retail sales growth seem to be diving.
Yearning to Learn, I think the total stimulus was $120 billion (if I remember correctly). Only $48 billion was sent out in May according to the WSJ. I assume the rest will hit in June.
We don't know how much was spent - I was just comparing the increase in retail to the amount sent out to show a 1% jump month-to-month isn't that unexpected.
Best to all.
Fascinating - even though America needs to consume less while saving/producing more, at least if it is interested in avoiding the typical fate of a 3rd country that relies on the sufferance of its lenders, it is considered 'healthy' to continue to have growing consumption as a measure of the American economy.
Let us just leave it at 'fascinating,' in a dispassionate Spock like way, followed by something along the lines of 'this delusion seems to be unshakable, even when logically, it is incorrect by all accepted economic theories.'
America needs to produce more while consuming less - in the best case. This is not a definition of poverty, by the way, it was long considered part of Yankee frugality. In the worst case, most Americans will be able to understand what life is like within a banana republic - a small group of rich people selling out everyone else for their own enrichment.
dryfly wrote:
More & more people don't know how to cook - even minimally. I know its sounds crazy but we have a tails effect paradox... more people are 'gourmet cooks' than ever before at the same time more people can't even microwave water.
More people are working harder to make ends meet, leaving shorter amounts of time to spend cooking. One-income household used to be the norm, now it's more like "my child, can you work this summer to help out pay the bills?"...
Fine work, CR. I was waiting for CPI tomorrow, but extrapolating PCE is a fine approach.
Yep, amazing, how lousy 'weakstream' media reporting is.
dryfly: "Never. Not unless you buy all 'high end, premium label prepared foods' and then compare the price of ultra cheap fast food to it. That is not an apples to apples comparison."
But it's a dollars to dollars comparison.
Despite the spin, retail sales growth seem to be diving.
tyaresun | 06.12.08 - 11:08 am | #
Personally - I'm not terribly concerned by this. I mean I've been screaming for less consumption relative to our own productive output for some time - like almost forever.
What concerns me is the possibility that we might see an even greater decline in our productive output than the decline in consumption (that the CAD actually increases during this recession rather than decreases). That would not be good...
"... a small order of nachos for 79 cents and a new "Double Beef and Cheese" burrito for 99 cents."
"Both were quite tasty."
America is doomed.
"Clarity is like a breathe of fresh air. Marketwatch, WSJ and others who want some lessons in analysis should take note."
Nice comment. What CR did is report the facts. Most 'news' outlets think their real job is to report an analysis or an opinion. So right, wrong or indifferent, they come up with one on the spot. To me, that is not the news and this void is increasingly filled by direct internet access to blogs like this one.
What's Ben Bernanke having for dinner tonight? Does his household have a personal chef? Or, as I suspect, do they order in Chinese a lot?
What I'll be interested to see is the comparison between the total government stimulus and the net decline in Q2 MEW. Will they cancel each other out?
But it's a dollars to dollars comparison.
cm | 06.12.08 - 11:11 am | #
In the same way plastic jewelry compares to solid gold on a dollar to dollar basis.
If those same folks bought staples & prepared them at home (instead of either fast food or processed grocery 'entres') those are ALWAYS the lowest cost. Always.
But you have to know a little about cooking (not a lot, just a little). Many no longer do.
And it takes almost no time - minutes frequently.
I do 99% of the grocery buy for our family and 95% of the cooking - since I work from a home office. I know this real well.
The general trend of the YOY % change is declining over time since 1993. I've also seen this trend in other graphs with longer time periods (since 1980, I think). Any idea why the % change is trending toward zero?
It's amazing the pushback dryfly is getting for his obviously true statement about the cost of doing your own cooking compared to the cost of eating prepared foods. I guess it simply proves his first point: people really cannot wrap their minds around doing their own cooking.
Taco Bell???
Is that the new 'nearly 100% mad-cow-free beef'?
More people are working harder to make ends meet, leaving shorter amounts of time to spend cooking. One-income household used to be the norm, now it's more like "my child, can you work this summer to help out pay the bills?"...
Cooking ramen in my percolator | 06.12.08 - 11:11 am | #
I pan fried noodles last night with cabbage & some mushrooms and a little bit of beef - tossed a little 'bottled sauce' on it & served to the wife & kid. Total time: 15 minutes from start to finish. Skill required: cut veggies, open bottle, stir fry. Cost: about $3 total for all w/ leftovers for lunch today.
How is fast food faster & cheaper?
There really are no excuses for this one except laziness & ignorance.
"people really cannot wrap their minds around doing their own cooking"
I don't build my own car or write my own television shows. Why would I cook?
"Specialization of skills".
Look into it!
Fuel oil is included in retail sales. Nuff said?
Rob Dawg
True. But, small change in lifestyles - AAA was reporting a YoY 4% decline in gas consumtion on the Memorial Day weekend.
IMHO, I suspect a good deal of the stimulas money went to pay down CC debt.
"More & more people don't know how to cook - even minimally" - Saw a UK program on food/nutrition some little kid, upon seeing a farmers field, could not believe that green peas did not grow in a tin can.
"my child, can you work this summer to help out pay the bills?"..." I simply cant see this happening. What I see is a lot of kids have a sense of entitlement.
dryfly,
I agree with you completely, Home cooking is the say to go to achieve the most value for your money. But for someone who thrives on 5K calories/day, and is addicted to fat and carbs, you can probably get more calories for your money by eating fast food.
Dryfly - "Yesterday I refined my own gasoline with only some soy sauce and a stir-fry pan. How is store-bought gasoline cheaper or better?"
hahaha.
Yes, Broward, but if push came to shove you could wash your own car or dust your own television or even press your own shirt.
So, yeah, most of us would do well to know our way around a kitchen.
You compare cooking your own meals with building a car or writing a television script?
Ok...I'll ask:
"That is an increase of $3.8 billion - a small amount compared to the $48 billion in stimulus checks."
Where did the other $44.2 billion go?
But sadly, not on a calorie to calorie basis. The cheapest calories around, beating even store bought staples, are fast food from places like McDonald's.
Nope.
Potatoes, rice, pasta - all with store bought home prepared meats & such destroy McD and such on a 'calorie per dollar basis'.
I have athletes in the family (all state swimmers) who destroy calories - believe me, you can cook a virtual time bomb of calories for very little once you know what to buy & how to cook. Many don't so they go McD via default.
burnside writes:
Yes, Broward, but if push came to shove you could wash your own car or dust your own television or even press your own shirt.
So, yeah, most of us would do well to know our way around a kitchen.
burnside | 06.12.08 - 11:28 am | #
Or maybe someday he could feed himself or wipe his own ass.
If you can't make better food than you can buy then you have a serious problem...
dryfly's points are a good snap shot of how our society would rather spend money they do not have because they think time is worth more than health.
Not in my book....
Ciao
MS
Insane? Why yes, it is. But welcome to the daily routine of a shockingly high percentage of your fellow Americans, especially the single mother variety.
rent_to_own | 06.12.08 - 11:30 am | #
We do all that - well the kids are mostly grown now but DID all that - plus my wife logs 50-60 hrs/wk AND I travel half the time. We mostly cook at home because its FASTER than fast food. And less expensive.
But you have to know a few basics...
Jebus - do we need to do the cooking channel for you folks?
"... a small order of nachos for 79 cents and a new "Double Beef and Cheese" burrito for 99 cents."
Fat ass fuel.
The record on spending of stimulus checks is that the biggest impact is over a 3-month period, with some impact out to about 6 months. If we are seeing more spending than expected now, that can either mean people are spending early, or spending a big chunk of the check. We can't know that yet. If spending early is the answer, it suggests pent up demand in households that really had little other resource on which to draw. Uh Oh.
Sales ex-auto, gasoline and building materials (less price-affected than other series) are rising at a 7% annualizd pace over 3 months. That is a massive acceleration. May be revised away, but it fits well with the pick-up in chain store sales. Looks like real spending. Again, it may only be short-term
Dryfly's right... I'm the "cook" in our family, it's both relatively easy and beats the expense of eating out. Even counting empty calories, eating in is a better deal than McDonalds.
However, I am a little neurotic perhaps... I actually create spreadsheets determining the "cost per meal per person" and tend to buy in bulk at wholesalers with 6-12 months of on-hand for many items.
BTW, we eat really healthy. No cheap carbs: just fresh vegetables, fruits, nuts, fish, and lean meats!
eating fast food shows.
Go to the rest of the world and look at the people, then come back here and look at people.
Americans are disgustingly obese, from kids to adults, especially women. It should be a crime to do to kids what most parents do, feed them such a poor quality diet and overfeed them at that.
No wonder health care costs are out of control, peoples health is out of control. Fast foods are a major reason.
Once again thanks to CR for cutting through the balogna and showing the real deal.
Yearning to Learn writes:
great post CR, I only have two very small qualms/questions.
1)
$48b of stimulus checks have been sent out, but we don't know how much of that has been SPENT yet.
thus, is it not possible that we've only seen partial effects from the stimulus checks? in other words, we may see continued spending from the stimulus check over the course of teh summer, no?
do we know how long on average Americans spend their stimulus (is it similar to tax rebates as example? is there data?)
YTL, I know some people that have spent their checks before they even arrive....so I imagine when the checks land isn't the only issue to look at when factoring in the spending impact...
I am with dryfly on this one. I know people are busy but I have also seen those TV watching stats. Amazing how much time you have once that machine is turned off and you actually do activities like cooking and interacting with family.
And all that time people spend on the internet! Wait a minute. . .
If I may put a slight positive spin on the spending patterns - and no, we don't have a breakout so far as I know - J6P may be making preparations for rough weather.
That can cost something and it's not necessarily unwise.
If consumer sentiment is negative and money is going out at the same time, who's to say it's necessarily being wasted on nonsense?
If I thought the local independent foreign car garage might be at risk of going out of business, I'd have a few things done for the car.
Which I may do, come to think of it.
While it's not a large factor, the Census Bureau estimates US population is growing at a rate of about 1%/year.
Thus sales should grow at that rate nominally just to break even on a per capita basis.
That would make the current Real yoy sales -1.8%.
I wonder if some of the "perceived" increase in spending patterns might not be hoarding in response to inflation fears?
Gas Hoarding Leads to Fire
CNN.com - Page not found
Are you really trying to say that a large order of McDonald's fries has less calories than an equivalent amount of boiled potatoes?
On a calorie per dollar basis - yes.
Especially if you put on a whole lot of store bought butter & sour creme (cheap per serving but TONS of calories). Add cheese & bacon - KA BOOM!!!
Or oven roast your own fries - covered with butter or oil. Sprinkle w/ Parmesan & seasoning. Look at the ingredients & compare. We aren't talking weight watchers at our house - not all the time.
You want 'cheap calories' - do them at home, its way cheaper than McDs.
Again - I been there - trying to keep weight on kids running 5-6 miles and swimming 6-8K yds in the same day (they cross train all summer). I can stuff them with 6K cal for a buck a meal if I need to. I've done it for weeks on end.
But you have to know cooking basics.
God, I love those 30lb bags of rice.
I really think people need to only worry about themselves and their families. Who really gives a rats ass what/how joe blow down the street cooks/eats. I am a single guy. I like grillin but truly HATE cooking on a regular basis. To me eating in general is nothing more than sustainment. If I could take a pill to accomplish the same I would...
Chris
"No wonder health care costs are out of control, peoples health is out of control. Fast foods are a major reason."
mb | 06.12.08 - 11:39 am | #
No,look where a majority of money is spent on healthcare. I saw stats a while back that showed most was spent on the last 6 months to year of life.
Chris
Barley writes:
"But, small change in lifestyles - AAA was reporting a YoY 4% decline in gas consumtion on the Memorial Day weekend."
So cost is up somewhere around 25% but consumption is down only 4%. No wonder retail is up.
I'm with dryfly on this one...a 20 lb bag of potatoes is a couple of bucks. Chop up 5 lbs worth, drop it on a cookie sheet with some oil, salt and pepper, and stick it in the oven for an hour. Now you've got enough calories for a couple of days and your total cost is maybe $2.50.
The majority of healthcare will always be spent during the last year or so of life. It's tautological.
I'm really not sure how significant it is that Americans eat out more than they did in the old days. There were a hell of a lot of downright awful home cooked meals at my house. I cook, but I like to eat out too. I don't feel too bad about it. I'm not sure why spending money on something, or not, is a moral or ethical question.
The problem here is people spent more than they earned. The people who did it to pay their kid's tuition as much a part of the problem as the people who did it to go on a cruise, or eat out every night.
There is something satisfying in cooking for your family. But it isn't really all that noble.
Drew writes:
God, I love those 30lb bags of rice.
Drew | 06.12.08 - 11:55 am | #
Me too. Plus we live in a cold climate & have a cold basement so I'll get 20lb bags of potatoes at a time too... not this time of year though.
Summer is 'rice season', winter is for 'potatoes'... my kids start looking forward to the switch over more than a MONTH in advance. Its not that we never have the other 'off season' but there is a definite 'seasonal pattern'.
I interviewed the "lunch lady" this morning at work; she's an independent merchant who visits the various departments in our far-flung university each morning, selling fresh-made but pre-packaged sandwiches, salads, and entrees for lunch. As far as lunch is concerned, she's the low-price leader. No restaurant or market matches her price or convenience, and the quality is good.
That said, her sales are 'way down year over year. People who bought from her five times a week are down to three. People who bought from her once or twice a week she rarely sees anymore. They're bringing lunches more and more, she says.
University people here aren't well paid. You can argue whether people know how to cook anymore or not, but apparently they're trying.
Chris,
Eating sometimes is about flavor and taste. It should not only be a mean to survive.
actually rent-to-own, dryfly is right.
you can easily make the mcdonald's meal for cheaper than mcdonald's can with just as much calories.
to do it:
take 2 potatoes and microwave them (600 cals)
with 1/2 lb of hamburger (860 cals)
make 2 pieces of toast. (166 calories)
drink some coke. (200-400cals, depending on size)
the calories are very near what a big mac meal deal is.
it takes only 4 minutes to cook. it is also cheaper than mickey D's.
how do I know? it's what we used to eat in the 'hood.
I know the calories because I am a doctor and I have obese kids who eat this who I've sent to a nutritionist.
"Eating sometimes is about flavor and taste. It should not only be a mean to survive."
jin | 06.12.08 - 12:02 pm | #
Yep,understood. But not everybody looks at it that way. I do like BBQ A LOT. Everything else MEH. It's O.K.,I guess.
Chris
I've upped my spending with an eye towards inflation, i.e., new plastic irrigation for the orchard, Wusthof knives, new blue jeans,...things I hope will retain personal value to me and are likely to skyrocket.
We eat out a little too often, but I can't buy certain things in small enough quantity to justify,i.e., the prep stuff for Mexican food. Spaghetti, rice, potatoes we'll do at home, don't eat much meat, but I expect we'll start eating steak once the premium vis a vis hamburger is smaller.
Thanks CR. Eyeballing it, I was guessing that it was at least flat.
Zen and the Art of Eating Cheap and Healthy
healthier, wealthier, and wiser
Put THAT on my performance review.
Yeah, the stimulus checks were life-saver buoy for Q2 economics statistics, specially on the spending side.
The question is; how much of it will spill over into Q3?
In any case, it won't have any staying power for November. It will be an interesting year.
But, we can't buy time forever, specially on the borrowed money.
My daughter-in-law is a stay at home mom with two kids. She doesn't cook. I have a son who lives on about $400.00/month. He cooks. I was a single Mom. I always cooked. I've noticed a decrease in the number of people who cook.
Why do people always refer to McDonald's and Taco Bell when they talk about eating out? Those places are lame, and I was under the impression that the Indian, Thai, Chinese, Greek, sushi, and Italian restaurants also counted. And regarding drfly's comment about eating at home...I really don't have the time to learn how to cook every ethnic food there is to know, nor do I want to buy all of the requirements to be able to do every ethnic food well.
'Outsourcing to the experts' is the explanation I give for why my family eats out three to four times a week.
My kids (3 & 7) eat a variety of foods, we are eating 'locally', and supporting small business. Isn't that a good thing?
Taco Bell... New menu items include a small order of nachos for 79 cents and a new "Double Beef and Cheese" burrito for 99 cents. Both were quite tasty. - Greg Weston
My brand new $80k worth of grafted heart arteries just clogged up a little bit reading this.
It's called PRICE INFLATION.
Freakin' morons.
"No stimulus checks for those that owe the IRS more money".
They take the check and apply it to the balance due.
Aw jeez, guys. Now I'm hungry.
When you're eating out, stop bye and pick up a bottle of my value priced red to drink in the parking lot of your favorite restaurant.
'Outsourcing to the experts' is the explanation I give for why my family eats out three to four times a week.
My kids (3 & 7) eat a variety of foods, we are eating 'locally', and supporting small business. Isn't that a good thing?
Keith Rettig | 06.12.08 - 12:24 pm | #
We eat out for pleasure quite a lot but rarely for necessity - that is the big difference. My kids know many of the good ethic spots w/in a 100 mile radius of where we live because they've been to a lot of them once or twice. We always have our radar up for new places to eat.
But we cook-eat at home more because its less expensive & faster and usually better (because I have spent a little time learning how to do basics well).
When we are drained & dragging we head home so we DON'T have to make the choice between crap fast food or longish drawn out but better sit down eat out. Then at home we do quick-but-good and then crash. Sometimes its as simple as just a decent omelet (good cheese, good veggies inside) and salad - minutes, seriously.
People really make this way too hard - it isn't.
"... a small order of nachos for 79 cents and a new "Double Beef and Cheese" burrito for 99 cents."
I'm calling the Bureau of Labor Statistics - the CPI basket can be adjusted based on this fantastic news!
Leftys Liquors writes:
When you're eating out, stop bye and pick up a bottle of my value priced red to drink in the parking lot of your favorite restaurant.
Leftys Liquors | 06.12.08 - 12:34 pm | #
LOL. Just down the road at Morey's in Motley would be the ideal place to go for that! Ever been there Lefty?
dryfly and all,
Whoa! I don't mean to ruffle anyone's feathers with my comment, but I just felt the need to defend people who succumbed to bought food as oppose to home cooking.
My recently-divorced sister is an excellent cook; unfortunately, due to her work and long commute, preparing food by 8:00PM every night is just not feasible. We pick her 2 kids up from elementary school so they could have dinner at our place. Occassionaly, she "cheats" by buying food from a restaurant on her way home to treat her kids.
Although I'm fortunate enough to cook for my family every evening, I just don't think it would be right for me to pass judgement or indignation on her situation. I still have hopes everything would turn out great for her and her kids.
I bought a fish sandwich at McD this past week, and I was taken aback at how small it was, compared to the last time I had one, about six months ago. Anyone else notice this? Are the fast food companies saving money by giving us smaller portions?
rent_to_own, you can pack calories into a cheap home meal too. You can get a pound of dried beans for less than a buck and a pound and a half or more of lard for about a buck. Add tortillas and cheese for another 2.50.
This will feed more people for the same cost and just as many calories as McD's.
I am somewhat encouraged by efforts like this to share kitchens, ingredients, and recipes. Pricey however:
Sorry. Page not found.
I was under the impression that the Indian, Thai, Chinese, Greek, sushi, and Italian restaurants also counted.
I know this couple whose idea of reducing expenses is take-out instead of eating out. They're eating the exact same things, but saving about 30% from the tips and alcohol. The yuppie lifestyle is hard to break...
People are beginning to hoard.
Everybody should have a pressure cooker. You can make a hearty soup or pot roast in about 20mins.
Anyway, people need to re-learn the fundamental aspects of peasant cooking - using cheap ingrediants to make something wonderful, and even relatively healthy. I'm constantly amazed at how cheaply you can eat using less desirable cuts of meat, vagatables, legumes, and rice. It's not that hard, but you do need to know some basics.
Ross writes:
People are beginning to hoard.
Ross | Homepage | 06.12.08 - 12:49 pm | #
Not trying to sound 'deflationary' on an 'inflationary' thread but more than a few should start by trying to 'hoard' some money.
It's not that hard, but you do need to know some basics.
kis | 06.12.08 - 12:50 pm | #
Like keeping the sealing surfaces clean & know that the pop-off valve is in good working order... learned that the hard way once twenty some years ago.
A pressure cooker isn't where most know-nothing cooks should start. But they do have a place once (if) you get the knack.
"Everybody should have a pressure cooker. You can make a hearty soup or pot roast in about 20mins. "
Or a rice cooker. Makes a giant pot of rice in 50 minutes -- real rice, not the "quik" variety -- and you don't have to watch it.
We make up vast amounts of brown rice and freeze it. Then we have "rice and..." for dinner 3 or 4 times a week when we don't feel like doing anything major. Rice and beans (also precooked and frozen). Rice and leftover meat and chopped onions and tomato. Fried rice. Rice and ... whatever. The microwave is a wondrous thing.
I think that we're stuck with price inflation for stuff we need, and price deflation in the things we want.
Perhaps this will reverse, but for the moment I'm going to "go long" canned food. I already have a good sized stockpile of cash and no debt, so food is the only other hedge I can think of short of overpriced farmland.
Dave | 06.12.08 - 12:45 pm | #
Dave,
Yes. Wendys sandwiches sadly have gotten smaller. I wish they wouldn't dick around and just bump prices instead of decreasing sizes. Oh well,I'll just purchase a little extra. BTW,this is real obvious at SAMS.
Chris
I wrote...
I was under the impression that the Indian, Thai, Chinese, Greek, sushi, and Italian restaurants also counted.
BigR wrote...
I know this couple whose idea of reducing expenses is take-out instead of eating out. They're eating the exact same things, but saving about 30% from the tips and alcohol. The yuppie lifestyle is hard to break...
I forgot to note that most of the restaurants we go to were indeed take-out rather than eating in the restaurant. Funy thing is that yes I notice the savings from tips and alcohol (not that I need the savings from a disposable income perspective but I do appreciate the savings) but that is not why...it is because our kids actually request to eat at home (yes I see the irony).
My wife and I assume it is so they are closer to the computer, tv, and their toys. Which is fine to us as it reduces the workload during the meal (not constantly telling them to lower their voices, stop staring at the people next to us, etc.; you know all the things parents yell at their kids to stop doing when eating out) and the bath tub is just upstairs for the beginning of the end-of-night procedures.
Can someone tell me if what we are doing goes under "fast food" expenditures or is it just counted as "dining"? Where are the feds counting our dollars? Again remember we are going to the local restaurants on the corner (we live within 4 miles of every type).
"I think that we're stuck with price inflation for stuff we need, and price deflation in the things we want."
Drew,
.
Need to me also equals housing. Since I don't own I consider the current drops as "Money in the bank".
Also my rent has dropped much more than my expenses have increased...Your situation may vary
Chris
Yep, housing is a need (or at least rent is).
I rent, but sadly haven't gotten any price decreases (Boston), but the increases have been relatively small or flat this year.
My single biggest expense!
"My single biggest expense!"
Drew | 06.12.08 - 1:15 pm |
Give it time. I lived through the Socal bust in the late 80's. Ugly. Where I am in Florida is about 12-18 months ahead of the rest of the country. Also,hit hardest here is the low end. 150k-200k dropping to 30-100k. I just saw one of our first 600k plus homes go back to US Bank. Other homes in the area were in the 200k range before the run up...
Chris
Yes,we are overshooting consistently on the downside.
Keith Rettig writes:
I wrote...
I was under the impression that the Indian, Thai, Chinese, Greek, sushi, and Italian restaurants also counted.
Well, the truth is, that in the US most of these are not too distinguishable from classic fast food places. Lots of oil, fatty meats, and (for the non-Asian places) heaps of cheese. Or cheese products. The Chinese dumpling seems to mutate into something like McDonald's hash browns.
However, that aside, I think it's time for schools to reduce the quantity of their after-school activities. Not the range - the quantity. Number of sports games need to be reduced, particularly tournaments. Number of practices needs to be reduced. Number of recitals needs to be reduced. Scrap kiddie graduation ceremonies, and most other similar ceremonies.
The goal right now should be that students can come home on a schoolbus more than half their days.
Think how much better their parents' lives would be! No rushing to pick up the children! You go home and can start supper, and force your children to help - they can tear up the salad greens, if nothing else. They can also wash the dishes.
But it's an arms race. Parents are afraid to cut back before others do - "my child might 'fall behind.'" Schools, do parents a favor and cut, cut, cut the number of activities a student needs to stay late for.
I still haven't received my stimulous check. Though I just got a letter the other day saying I should expect it in the next few weeks. I'm sure that having so many people infuse so much into the ecomony gives it some boost. But $1000 doesn't go a long ways these days. I wonder how the economy will do by the end of the year after after the stimulous checks are all spent out?
CR,
The stimulus money began in May and will continue through the second week of July. It is based on whether one uses direct deposit and the filer's SSN. Here is the schedule. When Will I Get My Stimulus Payment?
The autos numbers continues to look strange. The report shows auto and motor vehicle dealer sales at 66.12 billion down from 71.92 billion last year (a drop of about 9%). Yet look at car sales as reported by the manufacturers and the number should be worse. GM, Ford, Chrysler and Toyota all had large losses in unit sales AND their mix was more small cars (lower sticker) and fewer pickups/SUVs (higher sticker). How auto sales were only down 9% boggles the mind. More government figure smoothing...I think so.
Bill:
I think there were a couple of factors that would make up the difference. First, both Honda and Nissan recorded sales increases of ~10%. Also, I believe that the government number includes used cars (SUV trade-ins), which wouldn't show up in Detroit's numbers.
Now all we need to do is borrow an extra $48 billion every month, give everyone a stimulus check every month for the next 3-4 years, and we'll be ok. We'll just pass the debt onto the next generation. After all, they're going to college to get good jobs in the future, right? Oh wait, they can't get student loans anymore. Nevermind.
Geez, you guys have it all wrong. For starters a big mac is a rather well balanced meal...YOU JUST CAN'T EAT TEN OF THEM A DAY! My wife is the lead dietitian at an 800 bed University Hospital (RTP area of NC) and when we clip (two for one) coupons at some of the restaurants we go to, we generally get at least one and sometimes two and three additional meals EACH as leftovers. The problem here in the US is primarily PORTION SIZE. I grew up on a farm raising pigs, chickens, and cows. If an animal eats enough grass or anything "ab libitum", it will fatten up. It is portion size that kills US. I tend to eat out a fair amount but don't go to the Golden Coral and try to break the restaurant financially. I am closing in on 70 years old and have the stamina and musculature that most teens would like to have. I am starting my yearly training for my annual hike from the south rim of the Grand Canyon starting down the South Kaibob trail all the down to the Colorado river crossing over the bridges to the Phantom Ranch and back up the Bright Angel trail in 14 hrs. Don't give me the McDonalds will kill you rap...watch how much you eat and MOVE.
In order for the fat lady to sing, she has to eat.