What is amazing here is the number of people who buy and then a few years later, after a bit of refurbishment, flip the house for double what they paid. Or at least the info reads that way. It gives the impression that among the rich and super-rich house flipping is still very much in vogue.
I subscribe to a service that gives me the listings of the upcoming courthouse auctions in a spreadsheet form. There are now 64 shown, last month there were 56. Some of these postponements with 3 cancellations. This is for a single city outside Sacramento. I's say 7% is about right.
JD writes: ""Realty Trash data is virtually worthless""
I have wondered about this, too. I have a family member that lives in one of the more desirable suburbs lining Portland, Oregon, who has been trying to sell a home. Finally, it was taken off the market because of all the foreclosures and pre-foreclosures that were saturating the local market. According to Realty Trac (for that zipcode) 68% of all sales are in foreclosure or pre-foreclosure. This seems high.
The so-called core inflation reading, which excludes items like oil, gas and food because of their volatility, appeared to ease some investor concerns about the effect of rising prices on consumer spending, and in turn, the economy as a whole. While overall inflation showed its biggest one-month gain since November, the fact that the run-up seems limited to food and energy appeared to give investors some solace.
Hmm after looking at the picture of flooding coming out of the midwest, I think the market can't figure out what it wants to do so it's trying eveything at once - the screaming tiki god of investing approach.
Consumer confidence fell further, but there seems to be a news blackout about it: Consumer spirits continue to sink, to 56.7 for the Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index vs. 59.8 in May. All consumer readings across surveys are at or near record lows at the same time, and in a grim combination, that readings on inflation expectations are at record highs
Folks, the market does not always behave rationally. But to the extent that it does, it reacts to how news compares to expectations.
Look at the yield on the 2-year. Look at the Fed funds futures options. Rate hikes have already been priced in. And that means a CPI "higher than consensus estimates" is really no surprise.
To be honest, I was expecting worse, based on these indicators and also the Fed's recent rhetoric.
So, perhaps the market really is manipulated by Shadowy Forces whose entire purpose is to milk money off of all the "geniuses" like the folks on this blog... But today's reaction to the CPI is not evidence for it.
Two influential US senators got "VIP" loans from a leading subprime mortgage lender that saved them tens of thousands of dollars, it was reported last night.
Dodd is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, while Conrad is chairman of the Budget Committee and a member of the Finance Committee. The two senators refinanced properties through the VIP program in 2003 and 2004, the report said.
But it wasn't just them: "Others who received 'FOA' loans include Alphonso Jackson, the secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Bush who resigned in April, and Donna Shalala, who was secretary of Health and Human Services in the Clinton administration."
Two influential US senators got "VIP" loans from a leading subprime mortgage lender that saved them tens of thousands of dollars, it was reported last night.
See, no need to raise rates. Just like John McCain and the Fed Chairs have saying, talk tough about it, but don't do anything about. Give it a little lip service - you know talk up the doom and gloom - and when the CPI comes out, things don't look all that bad, lets have a rally. Kinda like the Iraq policy, talk the talk, but no need to walk the walk.
The Democratic pols, Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, both received the highly favorable loans under the designation "Friend of Angelo,"
Good, I've come to really despise Dodd. I hope he loses the committee chair.
Re: previous thread of walking away - another factor that is not in the equation is personal safety. As the crime rate goes up in some neighborhoods, that will also encourage more people to leave. When someone you know gets held up at gunpoint you are more willing to let your 20% down payment go.
"It only says 'great deals' now."
BigRig Driver | 06.13.08 - 10:47 am |
BigRig,
The idiots at NAR redesigned their website. I used to do "Map search" and look at specific areas from there. It is no loger configured like that. Screws up my tracking of numbers...They also pulled all the freaking adresses. I figure a prepaid cell and "John Smith" will work to bother the shit out of selling realtors to get the adresses of properties.
40% of May RE sales were non-occupant in the county, my guess the real number is even higher since many new investors probably are making false statements on their loan apps.
You mean the same asshole that will get up all day along with a bunch of other lying thieves in DC and tell you Social security is funded, Medicare no probumo, deficits don't matter...BS.BS.....BS. Bernankie and Paulson are giving you a gift in talking up the dollar and reigniting the Yen carry trade, take it get out of the US markets and the dollar while the getting is good.
with a plummeting dollar, record high food and energy food prices, a war in Iraq, housing crisis, etc., it's nice to know Congress is working on something important.
Two Congressmen press Selig, Fehr on 2005 testimony
High-level U.S. and Chinese officials will discuss the yuan's recent faster rise against the dollar at economic talks next week, a senior U.S. Treasury Deparment official said on Friday, adding that he hopes China will let the yuan rise further.
OT But what are teenagers in Sacramento going to do? It's summer, they are out of school, there are large areas of pavement uninhabited. If gas were cheaper I'd guess street races around the empty CRE Max blogged about. Will they bother CRE or residential more? Perhaps there are activity trends that older folks aren't aware of right now?
As a former teenager myself, I confidently predict some unbelievable videos making the rounds in two months.
Lost my bid on the townhome. REO listings have dried up in the Inland Empire...everyone says they will be more at the end of August. Why at the end of August. Do they come out in groups?
I know three people who bought four houses in Inland Empire (Murrieta, San Jacinto). According foreclosure.com ALL of them have received NOD this year, and one house is scheduled for auction.
One of them (ex-girlfriend) paid $500K for 2600 sq-ft house in Murrieta, similar house is on the markdet for $320 and has not sold yet.
This girl is a doctor who makes easilty above $150K/year, it shows that she can afford to make mortage payment but chose to walk away.
I've been telling you how hard it is for small public companies to get financing, and that they are having to get it from hedge funds and PIPEs at very high costs.
The article quantifies the interest rate small companies are having to pay these sources at 3.2% more than bank rates. I think it's higher, but a standard range of interest cost now is 12-15%. This is going to put a lot of strain on profits going forward and probably also create a lot of equity dilution in small companies one way or another.
What the article doesn't say is that the target market for these loans is public companies with $50-500 million in market cap. In other words, the core of the Russell 2000 index.
The average maturity of these loans is 1-2 years. Nobody making these loans seems to be able to explain where the money will come from to pay off principal in 1-2 years. The lenders say the loans are secured by assets. So, in a year or two, a lot of small public companies could find themselves without their buildings, equipment or inventories.
I'll tell you another scam in the making. A lot of these companies have set up non-qualified deferred comp programs for their key execs. They have set aside assets to fund those benefits, which include deferrals of the exec's own money. But in some cases, they are having to pledge deferred comp program assets as collateral for these high-rate hedge fund loans.
How would you like to defer $200,000 of your salary into a deferred comp plan and then wake up and find out the assets backing it are gone and the company is bankrupt?
A. I wonder if a firm that sells Foreclosure data to real estate buyers has a potential bias to issuing their foreclosure data. Seems to me that making foreclosures seem to be widespread would really drive sales of a foreclosure data service. No conflict of interest there, but then again, Americans have proven adept in their lack of critical thinking skills time and time again.
B. I love everyone here who believes that inflation is skyrocketing. If you firmly believe that house prices are falling and they make a major expenditure for most Americans, then wouldn't that moderate your inflation expectations? Again that old critical thinking capability seems to be lacking. Or people are just being ignorant and love to hold opposing beliefs at the same time.
OT but related to comments upthread, RE: "Friends of Angelo" loans.
Tanta I know you don't want this space to descend into political food fight territory, but would you comment on this kind of practice:
"Countrywide often waived at least half a point and lender fees for VIP customers and provided a free "float-down" if rates fell during processing."
...and tell us where you think this rates on the scandal-meter?
Thomas writes: If you firmly believe that house prices are falling and they make a major expenditure for most Americans, then wouldn't that moderate your inflation expectations?
Wow, with critical thinking like that, you should be an economist. Of course, the fact that house prices are falling only helps those who are currently in the market to buy a house, not the ones who own or are trying to sell probably colors their view of inflation. Idiots! Don't they realize as the dollar tanks they'll be paying off their mortgage with cheaper dollars? And if they're unemployed it'll be like paying off the mortgage with FREE money! Why aren't they grateful?
Bingo: housing has a LONG way to fall before it is affordable, that does nothing to help the hosed buyers who bought at absurdly high prices. Meanwhile, cost of living skyrockets thanks to food and energy (and health care, education, etc.), jobs vanish, and the dollar becomes increasingly worthless.
To me, that's inflation, or at least stagflation. Saving money is still better than losing it, but savings is heavily discouraged in this environment and your dollars are not becoming more valuable as time passes. So, we wait for affordable housing as everything else inflates out of control.
sdtfs writes: Of course, the fact that house prices are falling only helps those who are currently in the market to buy a house, not the ones who own or are trying to sell probably colors their view of inflation.
Okay, calling me an economist is a low-blow! Nothing worse than that in my book. Inflation is a measure of the increase in prices of goods being bought by consumers across our country. If the single-biggest expenditure line item in everyone's balance sheet is going down, then it will moderate inflation. I think sdtfs is trying to say that immediate sellers will have a balance sheet issue that will change people's expectations of inflation. However, this person fails to note that the number of sellers is low and getting smaller. In fact, since 30% of sales are REO's then that means that the proportion of forced sellers to the entire homeowning community is small (and getting smaller). So the effect on the American homeowning public is drastically declining.
Think it through.
agreed. yet rather than make any effort to collect their own data, the lazy lemmings in the media continue to quote the clowns at Realty Trac as if they were some independent government agency.
RE aficionados might be interested in a site that deals exclusively with celebrity/very high end RE:
Celebrity Real Estate Homes Big Time Listings
What is amazing here is the number of people who buy and then a few years later, after a bit of refurbishment, flip the house for double what they paid. Or at least the info reads that way. It gives the impression that among the rich and super-rich house flipping is still very much in vogue.
"Inflation moderates"
Said the headline followed by this next sentence....
Led by a 4.4% increase in energy.
Ciao
MS
Here is another similar site with much more amusing commentary, campy and bitchy.
The Real Estalker: Let's Talk About the Languishing Marketplace
Inflation moderates for whom? Last month the yearly inflation rate was 3.9%. Now this month (May) it is up to 4.2%. "Moderates"?????
I only report it I don't make it up...
That headline is now gone from Yahoo...
Ciao
MS
I subscribe to a service that gives me the listings of the upcoming courthouse auctions in a spreadsheet form. There are now 64 shown, last month there were 56. Some of these postponements with 3 cancellations. This is for a single city outside Sacramento. I's say 7% is about right.
so inflation jumps the most in 6 months. Hmm - should be a great day for the market and the dollar. I love reverse world!
Should be: Some of these are postponements and 3 are cancellations.
reported inflation.....I'm sure it's much worse than that.
Typical pump and dump by the SPX buyers.
Ciao
MS
My obligatory "Realty Trash data is virtually worthless" comment.
JD writes: ""Realty Trash data is virtually worthless""
I have wondered about this, too. I have a family member that lives in one of the more desirable suburbs lining Portland, Oregon, who has been trying to sell a home. Finally, it was taken off the market because of all the foreclosures and pre-foreclosures that were saturating the local market. According to Realty Trac (for that zipcode) 68% of all sales are in foreclosure or pre-foreclosure. This seems high.
Treasury debt prices gained on Friday after a weaker-than-expected reading of consumer sentiment.
TREASURIES-Bonds gain after weak U.S. sentiment data
| Reuters
Where do they find these journalist that write this crap?
Paging Bizzaro, I need your explanation as to what is going on in the market,,,
From Yahoo:
The so-called core inflation reading, which excludes items like oil, gas and food because of their volatility, appeared to ease some investor concerns about the effect of rising prices on consumer spending, and in turn, the economy as a whole. While overall inflation showed its biggest one-month gain since November, the fact that the run-up seems limited to food and energy appeared to give investors some solace.
Food and energy. Who needs that stuff?
ridiculous 'aint it??
Ciao
MS
Hmm after looking at the picture of flooding coming out of the midwest, I think the market can't figure out what it wants to do so it's trying eveything at once - the screaming tiki god of investing approach.
Isn't it funny how the market has moved mostly flat to down and oil has moved up all while treasury prices were declining?
Just wait till the dollar weakens. Oh snap...
warp 9-
Huh??? "mostly flat to down"
What planet?? Not this one.
Ciao
MS
Consumer confidence fell further, but there seems to be a news blackout about it: Consumer spirits continue to sink, to 56.7 for the Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index vs. 59.8 in May. All consumer readings across surveys are at or near record lows at the same time, and in a grim combination, that readings on inflation expectations are at record highs
Folks, the market does not always behave rationally. But to the extent that it does, it reacts to how news compares to expectations.
Look at the yield on the 2-year. Look at the Fed funds futures options. Rate hikes have already been priced in. And that means a CPI "higher than consensus estimates" is really no surprise.
To be honest, I was expecting worse, based on these indicators and also the Fed's recent rhetoric.
So, perhaps the market really is manipulated by Shadowy Forces whose entire purpose is to milk money off of all the "geniuses" like the folks on this blog... But today's reaction to the CPI is not evidence for it.
Two influential US senators got "VIP" loans from a leading subprime mortgage lender that saved them tens of thousands of dollars, it was reported last night.
The Democratic pols, Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, both received the highly favorable loans under the designation "Friend of Angelo," a reference to embattled Countrywide head Angelo Mozilo, Condé Nast Portfolio reported.
Dodd is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, while Conrad is chairman of the Budget Committee and a member of the Finance Committee. The two senators refinanced properties through the VIP program in 2003 and 2004, the report said.
But it wasn't just them: "Others who received 'FOA' loans include Alphonso Jackson, the secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Bush who resigned in April, and Donna Shalala, who was secretary of Health and Human Services in the Clinton administration."
LOAN SLEAZE SPREADS - NYPOST.com
Two influential US senators got "VIP" loans from a leading subprime mortgage lender that saved them tens of thousands of dollars, it was reported last night.
The Democratic pols, Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, both received the highly favorable loans under the designation "Friend of Angelo," a reference to embattled Countrywide head Angelo Mozilo, Condé Nast Portfolio reported.
Disgusting. All off Washington appears to be rotten to the core.
Too bad it's not even suprising at this point.
Regarding those "VIP" loans... is this even legal?
Market pops on inflation news?
Maybe the market movers are hoping we'll end up like Zimbabwe....great returns on the market there!
Is unidirectional volatility really just inflation in disguise?
"Shadowy Forces whose entire purpose is to milk money off of all the "geniuses" like the folks on this blog..."
I assume that also includes yourself in that little bit of tripe.
See, no need to raise rates. Just like John McCain and the Fed Chairs have saying, talk tough about it, but don't do anything about. Give it a little lip service - you know talk up the doom and gloom - and when the CPI comes out, things don't look all that bad, lets have a rally. Kinda like the Iraq policy, talk the talk, but no need to walk the walk.
The market rally feels false.. methinks it will finish negative today.
Atlanta Real Estate - Atlanta Homes for Sale — Metro Brokers/GMAC Real Estate
they are no longer advertising the amount of homes available for sale in metro atlanta...
It only says 'great deals' now.
The Democratic pols, Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, both received the highly favorable loans under the designation "Friend of Angelo,"
Good, I've come to really despise Dodd. I hope he loses the committee chair.
Isn't Dodd calling for a 2nd stimulus?
So many BULLISH signals! Where's Sebastian and his retartded incomprehensible westburyesque indignant "no recession" rants?
Rate hikes have already been priced in.
When? Federal Funds Rate Predictions: Current ::
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
:: fed funds,federal funds rate,prediction
"Priced in" means to me a 100% certainty. I not only forecast no rate hike, I see a rate cut coming by August.
Re: previous thread of walking away - another factor that is not in the equation is personal safety. As the crime rate goes up in some neighborhoods, that will also encourage more people to leave. When someone you know gets held up at gunpoint you are more willing to let your 20% down payment go.
"It only says 'great deals' now."
BigRig Driver | 06.13.08 - 10:47 am |
BigRig,
The idiots at NAR redesigned their website. I used to do "Map search" and look at specific areas from there. It is no loger configured like that. Screws up my tracking of numbers...They also pulled all the freaking adresses. I figure a prepaid cell and "John Smith" will work to bother the shit out of selling realtors to get the adresses of properties.
Chris
Pass the banana's!
This guy has been keeping data on Sonoma county as his charts depict almost 50% of the NOD's become foreclsosures. Click on his charts link.
UPCOMING SONOMA COUNTY TRUESTEE SALES
40% of May RE sales were non-occupant in the county, my guess the real number is even higher since many new investors probably are making false statements on their loan apps.
Isn't Dodd calling for a 2nd stimulus?
You mean the same asshole that will get up all day along with a bunch of other lying thieves in DC and tell you Social security is funded, Medicare no probumo, deficits don't matter...BS.BS.....BS. Bernankie and Paulson are giving you a gift in talking up the dollar and reigniting the Yen carry trade, take it get out of the US markets and the dollar while the getting is good.
Stop knocking Congress...
with a plummeting dollar, record high food and energy food prices, a war in Iraq, housing crisis, etc., it's nice to know Congress is working on something important.
Two Congressmen press Selig, Fehr on 2005 testimony
Two congressmen press Selig, Fehr on 2005 testimony - MLB - ESPN
Sheeez...
We need a finer sieve. 1 out of 439 homes? How about instead; 1 out of 300 mortgages?
High-level U.S. and Chinese officials will discuss the yuan's recent faster rise against the dollar at economic talks next week, a senior U.S. Treasury Deparment official said on Friday, adding that he hopes China will let the yuan rise further.
U.S. hopes for continued yuan rise amid China talks
| Reuters
We got your strong dollar poicy right here.
Re: FOA loans: Possibly interesting, I will wait till a thread is opened to discuss it.
OT But what are teenagers in Sacramento going to do? It's summer, they are out of school, there are large areas of pavement uninhabited. If gas were cheaper I'd guess street races around the empty CRE Max blogged about. Will they bother CRE or residential more? Perhaps there are activity trends that older folks aren't aware of right now?
As a former teenager myself, I confidently predict some unbelievable videos making the rounds in two months.
The break down the NOD, NTS, REO in their monthly report
we have to shake those congressmen
credit cards
damn spammers...
Lost my bid on the townhome. REO listings have dried up in the Inland Empire...everyone says they will be more at the end of August. Why at the end of August. Do they come out in groups?
I know three people who bought four houses in Inland Empire (Murrieta, San Jacinto). According foreclosure.com ALL of them have received NOD this year, and one house is scheduled for auction.
One of them (ex-girlfriend) paid $500K for 2600 sq-ft house in Murrieta, similar house is on the markdet for $320 and has not sold yet.
This girl is a doctor who makes easilty above $150K/year, it shows that she can afford to make mortage payment but chose to walk away.
I think 2009 will be worse than 2008.
OT
I've been telling you how hard it is for small public companies to get financing, and that they are having to get it from hedge funds and PIPEs at very high costs.
An article in today's NY Times illuminates.
As Banks Shun Loans, Hedge Funds Move In - NY Times
The article quantifies the interest rate small companies are having to pay these sources at 3.2% more than bank rates. I think it's higher, but a standard range of interest cost now is 12-15%. This is going to put a lot of strain on profits going forward and probably also create a lot of equity dilution in small companies one way or another.
What the article doesn't say is that the target market for these loans is public companies with $50-500 million in market cap. In other words, the core of the Russell 2000 index.
The average maturity of these loans is 1-2 years. Nobody making these loans seems to be able to explain where the money will come from to pay off principal in 1-2 years. The lenders say the loans are secured by assets. So, in a year or two, a lot of small public companies could find themselves without their buildings, equipment or inventories.
I'll tell you another scam in the making. A lot of these companies have set up non-qualified deferred comp programs for their key execs. They have set aside assets to fund those benefits, which include deferrals of the exec's own money. But in some cases, they are having to pledge deferred comp program assets as collateral for these high-rate hedge fund loans.
How would you like to defer $200,000 of your salary into a deferred comp plan and then wake up and find out the assets backing it are gone and the company is bankrupt?
Thanks for posting that article rich. Stuff like that has me thinking I should be adding to my TWM position.
Thanks, Rich
This kinda takes payday loans to a new level. They will probably want your first born male next.
Gotta love shylockery. These guys are good. We need a new sheriff and a hanging judge!
A. I wonder if a firm that sells Foreclosure data to real estate buyers has a potential bias to issuing their foreclosure data. Seems to me that making foreclosures seem to be widespread would really drive sales of a foreclosure data service. No conflict of interest there, but then again, Americans have proven adept in their lack of critical thinking skills time and time again.
B. I love everyone here who believes that inflation is skyrocketing. If you firmly believe that house prices are falling and they make a major expenditure for most Americans, then wouldn't that moderate your inflation expectations? Again that old critical thinking capability seems to be lacking. Or people are just being ignorant and love to hold opposing beliefs at the same time.
OT but related to comments upthread, RE: "Friends of Angelo" loans.
Tanta I know you don't want this space to descend into political food fight territory, but would you comment on this kind of practice:
"Countrywide often waived at least half a point and lender fees for VIP customers and provided a free "float-down" if rates fell during processing."
...and tell us where you think this rates on the scandal-meter?
Can anyone recommend web sites to find REO listings and/or foreclosure activity?
Is RealtyTrac of value for this kind of search?
thanks
Ray
Thomas writes: If you firmly believe that house prices are falling and they make a major expenditure for most Americans, then wouldn't that moderate your inflation expectations?
Wow, with critical thinking like that, you should be an economist. Of course, the fact that house prices are falling only helps those who are currently in the market to buy a house, not the ones who own or are trying to sell probably colors their view of inflation. Idiots! Don't they realize as the dollar tanks they'll be paying off their mortgage with cheaper dollars? And if they're unemployed it'll be like paying off the mortgage with FREE money! Why aren't they grateful?
Bingo: housing has a LONG way to fall before it is affordable, that does nothing to help the hosed buyers who bought at absurdly high prices. Meanwhile, cost of living skyrockets thanks to food and energy (and health care, education, etc.), jobs vanish, and the dollar becomes increasingly worthless.
To me, that's inflation, or at least stagflation. Saving money is still better than losing it, but savings is heavily discouraged in this environment and your dollars are not becoming more valuable as time passes. So, we wait for affordable housing as everything else inflates out of control.
sdtfs writes: Of course, the fact that house prices are falling only helps those who are currently in the market to buy a house, not the ones who own or are trying to sell probably colors their view of inflation.
Okay, calling me an economist is a low-blow! Nothing worse than that in my book. Inflation is a measure of the increase in prices of goods being bought by consumers across our country. If the single-biggest expenditure line item in everyone's balance sheet is going down, then it will moderate inflation. I think sdtfs is trying to say that immediate sellers will have a balance sheet issue that will change people's expectations of inflation. However, this person fails to note that the number of sellers is low and getting smaller. In fact, since 30% of sales are REO's then that means that the proportion of forced sellers to the entire homeowning community is small (and getting smaller). So the effect on the American homeowning public is drastically declining.
Think it through.
Ray: You've proved my point perfectly.
Thomas writes:
Ray: You've proved my point perfectly.
agreed. yet rather than make any effort to collect their own data, the lazy lemmings in the media continue to quote the clowns at Realty Trac as if they were some independent government agency.