Even the FDIC and other primary Federal and State banking regulators have no idea how bad the banks' conditions are at the moment because they do not have enough staff to monitor all of them at once and must accept the banks' call reports as accurate information. Please make sure ALL of your deposits are FDIC insured tomorrow.
Weve blogged a few times about Zillow (here and here), a website that is trying to shake up the real estate industry. Ive made radical predictions about the future of the real estate industry. Im hoping that Zillow will help make those prophesies come true.
So to do my part (and because I am as susceptible to flattery as the next guy if you read on you will see what I mean), Im spreading the word about a new data analytics job that Zillow is trying to fill. If you think you have what it takes, send a resume to Chloe Harford. Here is the job description:
Job Title: Data and Analytics Specialist
Description:
Do you love answering questions and telling stories using data? Do you have a knack for transforming data into compelling insights? Do you lose track of time delving into fascinating data trends? Do you dream in numbers, pivot tables, and charts? Do you find typically that you are more likely to know who Edward Tufte and Steven Levitt are than those around you? Are you passionate about technology and transforming an industry?
If so, Zillow has the job for you. Be part of an analytics team helping to bring innovation, creativity, and excellence to the real estate industry. Youll work in an informal, collaborative atmosphere with a team of strong, smart, self-starters like yourself. Youll work hard, have a big impact in a small company, and have fun doing it!
In this role, youll conduct research and analysis on real estate market conditions and trends, millions of Zillow users and their behavior[s], and patterns in our terabytes of data. Youll tackle projects and specific ad hoc analyses on topics of interest to you, our users, and our partners. Your results will be used in blogs, the broader press, partner communications, site content, and to drive internal decision-making. Youll have plenty of opportunity to take the initiative to develop new high-impact data projects, and make recommendations based on your analyses.
Qualifications:
Excellent data, analytic, and problem-solving skills. Ability to analyze data and translate into actionable insights which can be easily understood and utilized by the entire organization, external partners, and press.
Strong knowledge of SQL (preferably MS SQL) is essential and experience getting insight from OLAP cubes is very helpful.
Strong organizational skills. Can track issues and work with other parties to resolve issues.
Superior presentation, communication, and interpersonal skills.
High energy and creativity; openness to new ideas/approaches; willingness to be flexible and do whatever you can to bring value to the team.
Qualities sought include: creativity, initiative, self-starter, attention to detail, sense of ownership, and being result-oriented, loves working in a high-energy growth environment in which data can make a substantial difference.
I only ask one thing. If you get the job, go into the Zillow database and double the value of my home, which if you believe their numbers is worth only half what I paid for it.
The threat of inflation to the global economy, coupled with slowing economic growth, has created a conflicting situation for economic policy responses. The complexity of the ensuing situation was exemplified in last weekend's G8 finance ministers' failure to reach consensus on the causes and solutions for rising inflation.
--The G8 communique expressed "strong concern" over the sharp rise in oil prices, which ministers noted have surpassed past peaks both in nominal and real terms, and the impact on global macro-economic stability, human welfare and development prospects.
--U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alastair Darling, among the ministers gathered in Osaka, sounded a warning that price rises could trigger wage inflation on the same scale as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s in the wake of previous oil shocks.
However, there was clear uncertainty over the causes of the problem and how to tackle it. Any hope that the G8 meeting would result in coordinated monetary action--or concerted intervention in foreign exchange markets--to counter rises, principally in commodity prices, was dispelled by their failure to agree on the phenomenon's underlying causes.
Financial markets have been linked to inflation through speculation--there are concerns that financial market conduct is a large factor in current problems:
--The G8 communique noted that elevated oil prices "fundamentally reflect rising world demand and supply constraints" as well as other elements such as "geopolitical concerns and financial factors."
--Comments made by individual ministers during the Osaka meeting suggested that some of them consider "financial factors" to include speculation in oil markets and the weakness of the U.S. dollar as significant contributors to high oil and, to a lesser extent, food prices:
--For example, Italy's Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti argued that commodity price inflation is due mainly to speculation. While demand-and-supply phenomena can cause price rises, he suggested that these will be "not so violent and sudden" as has occurred recently.
Yet in briefings after the meeting, both Paulson and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn rejected the analysis that speculation was the leading cause. Their view holds that rapidly rising commodity prices are linked to conditions in the real economy as demand is very close to maximum supply, thus placing upward pressure on prices.
A sinking dollar. Despite concerns expressed in the run up to the Osaka meeting that dollar devaluation is another factor behind commodity price inflation--and comments made by both Paulson and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in favor of a "strong dollar"--G8 ministers steered away from discussion on exchange rates.
Due to the lack of consensus, they have stated the need for further study. They called on the IMF and International Energy Agency (IEA) to work together with national authorities to carry out further analysis of "real and financial factors" behind the recent surge in oil and commodity prices, their volatility and global economic impact.
Likewise, they asked the World Bank to examine the effect on development of recent sharp rises in prices of basic food staples. This study will then inform a series of upcoming high-level gatherings:
--Both IMF/IEA and World Bank findings will be reported to the ministers' next meeting at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in October.
--The G8 summit meeting is due to be held next month in Tokyo. Although the agenda will emphasize climate change, some degree of crisis management could be required if the inflation situation continues to deteriorate.
Substantive discussion of issues such as exchange rates will await the next G7 finance ministers meeting in October.
Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world. For more information, please visit oxan.com. To find out how to subscribe to the company's Daily Brief Service, click here.
You may also sign up to The World Next Week, Oxford Analytica's free weekly service providing depth and context to next week's important international issues.
We reported record annual net income of $9,418,000 for the year ended December 31, 2007. The majority of the increase in 2007 came from increased net interest income and a reduction in the provision for loan losses.
RIYADH: An emergency meeting of oil producing and consuming countries this Sunday will give Saudi Arabia the chance to try to turn around a storm of negative publicity it has received in the US, analysts say. Washington has been Saudi Arabias closest ally since the 1940s when a tight relationship formed on the basis of guaranteed oil supplies in return for US protection for the Saudi monarchy through thick and thin.
Analysts see the Jeddah oil conference, which will examine ways of cooling record oil prices, in the same light. A string of foreign leaders including US President George W Bush have visited Riyadh this year to lobby the Saudi leadership to increase production, or persuade Opec to raise output to bring down prices as they shot past $100 per barrel. Saudi Arabias argument has consistently been that Opec responds to market needs and other factors beyond output are behind the price rises, such as speculation and a weak dollar.
Over the past week Saudi commentators and officials have strongly pushed the line that contrary to some thinking in the West, Saudi Arabia is not happy with oil at record levels and that is why the Jeddah energy meeting is being convened.
The past week has seen feverish speculation that Riyadh will present the gift of a unilaterally-announced boost in production next month to 9.7 million barrels per day, from 9.5 million. Some Opec countries have reacted coolly to the idea, with Iran, Iraq and Libya saying supply was not the issue. Iranian and Venezuelan leaders regularly talk in glowing terms of oils climb from the days of $10 a barrel in the late 1990s.
BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc., which is based in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., earlier this year transferred about $100 million of troubled commercial-real-estate loans into a new subsidiary.
Yep, transferred to their BankAtlantis Bancorp subsidiary, where every mortgage is underwater.
Washington Mutual, battered by the nationwide housing downturn, is poised to announce another round of layoffs Thursday that will affect at least several hundred employees nationwide across all departments.
After two presidential runs in one year, former Senator Mike Gravel is setting his sites on New York City politics, specifically a grassroots effort to have New York City citizens vote to establish a new September 11th investigation commission.
The petition drive needs at least 30,000 residents to give their signatures in order to place a potential amendment to the city charter on the November ballot. The former Alaska senator and lifelong political loose cannon threw his weight behind the effort to establish a second, privately funded investigation into the events of September 11th, in response to what he called a fatally flawed 9/11 Commission report.
Even the commissioners and their panderers admit it had shortcomings Gravel said. This commission will be made up of people with only one stake: finding the truth.
Petition drive leaders say their efforts began in February, and thus far have gathered around 10,000 signatures in support of the ballot initiative. That leaves another 20,000 signatures that the petitioners must collect before an early September deadline. Even if they collect the needed signatures, they must clear additional hurdles. The City Council must approve the measure, although a council rejection of ballot initiative can be overridden by the collection of 15,000 more signatures. Mayor Michael Bloomberg can also unilaterally veto the measure.
Despite the hurdles, volunteers are pressing on. Coordinator Les Jamieson said that the key would be building a mass movement able to pressure the government in the case of a Bloomberg veto. While the petition drive does not presuppose a particular theory of what happened on 9/11, Jamieson cited the influence of web-driven 9/11 conspiracy theory research as a key motivators for many volunteers.
If you take physics 101, you know that oxygen-fed fires dont burn hot enough to melt or bend steel said volunteer Doug Wight. No one knows what happened, but we know what theyre telling isnt true.
Conspiracy theory research has sparked some mainstream controversy already, with Popular Mechanics and the Department of State refuting the major claims of some conspiracy theories.
The full ballot initiative, which can be viewed at nyc911initiative.org/, would appoint 15 people, including Gravel, former Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chaffee, activists, and representatives of 9/11 victims families. The commission would rely on private financing, with a budget of $10 million a year.
Despite the prominence of 9-11 conspiracy theorists at yesterday's press conference, former Senator Gravel directed most of his comments at supporting his vision of direct democracy in America. Were trying to change the paradigm of human governance by supporting ballot initiatives such as this across the country, he said. To have power you should be able to vote on all issues that affect your lives.
Gravel said he supports any efforts to bring accountability to the Bush administration, also claiming that he expects a new commission to uncover crimes committed in the lead-up to 9/11.
The sooner we put a President, a Vice President, a Secretary of Defense in jail, the sooner things will shape up he said, adding that impeachment is too soft.
Prince's house is for sale. What a boring, unimaginative interior. This guy's taste is from AD. And this is the imaginative leader of the largest bank in the US? Why would a board of directors hire a man who has such plebian tastes? Ah, he reflects the Bd of Directors who are still in control of that bank. I wouldn't even waste my time wishing to visit what is yet another boring rich person's home. Sadly, he's not going to live in it longer; if he moved the furniture out, the living room could be a nice private dance floor. But that would require imagination and intellectual guts. Not that intellectual clown in a suit. Now he's Florida; lucky Florida.
Maybe you shouldn't put a small S&L in Brooklyn (Astoria) with a major bank like Wells Fargo in the same article and draw inferences. There is also a difference between classifying a loan as non-performing (as Astoria is doing according to your report) and writing it off (a la Wells Fargo). It might be worth a call or email to Wells to see what the rationale behind the change is before jumping to conclusions.
BTW-I am not flacking for Wells, don't own their stock and have no other conflicts.
tom, he was using the astoria item as an illustration. Wells has been getting universally slammed for numerous shifts in accounting interpretation since the crisis hit. They needed to show a profit, and did, when all they really did was delay reporting a loss.
OK - if that's how the banks want to play then maybe some homeowners may want to move a couple of goal posts of their own using family 1's PREP plan below. The banks won't like it:
Janjuah's warning: "A very nasty period is soon to be upon us--be prepared," he said, according to a report published in the Daily Telegraph newspaper on Wednesday. He advised that cash was the "key" safe haven.
Well if cash is 'key' heading into what could become a serious economic decline, I'm going to keep track of two homeowner families, each with 10% current equity, and contrast how they are doing at the end of 12 months using 2 approaches:
Family 1 will become "stay-ins", saving the PI and tax payments (during the probable 12 month foreclosure process) for use as future rent or downpayment $ so they can walk away from their possibly unsaleable house, retaining the alternative to become current at the end of 10-11 months and stay if home prices are unchanged or slightly lower but heading up, while they heal their credit dent.
Family 2 will stay current, hoping that they won't be trapped in an underwater house at the end of 12 months.
We'll follow them along periodically and see who is doing better at the end of 11 months: family 1 with either of a) cash, an apartment and a credit dent or b) a house with equity, no 'stay-in' cash, and a credit dent, or family 2 with a) same or more equity as last year or b) stuck in their underwater house.
I'll call family 1's plan PREP: the Personal Real Estate Put.
If I go to sleep ad there's no snow on the ground, yet when I wake up in the morning there's a foot on the ground, what should I assume?
A tupolev cargo plane full of coke crashed in my neighborhood?
I know for fact that WF has had unexpected default rates in all sectors, whether subprime, alt-A or prime. Still better than the other banks, yet unexpected nonetheless.
I was told to expect 1 more quarter of bad news from WF in April, this would explain why.
look, I could care less what Wells or any of these guys decide to do. An educated investor can look at this crap and see that there numbers will dip at some point in the near future based off what they did accounting wise. It doesn't really make a difference...just a curious strategy when every other major investment bank is taking their lumps now.
And the European aristocracy and its "figure head" monarchy have had just about enough of this funny business. Hence, the VERY significant RBS crash warning...
It wouldn't matter if they moved the goalposts if they could split the uprights. But it looks like they're still hooking them to the left. Instead of 0 for 4 months they're 0 for 6 months. WooHoo, better numbers!
I'd reference my facts except the I would be betraying confidences amongst the people I know.
These sources are impeccible and have been proven right over time, but at the ed of the day it's just one voice in the internet. YMMV, but I don't even dabble I their advice so I keep a clear mind.
If I can be helpful, WaMu has some truly terrible loan pools. The are the very examples of unexpectedly high levels of default used by Mish (et al) to indicate "walking away":
* original pool $513,969,100.
* 92.6% rated AAA.
* 22.89% in foreclosure or REO at 1 year.
* 31.17% 60+ days delinquent
Yeah, the media is not even talking about nat gas at all right now, but we are back into a price range that has only been explored after Katrina's destruction.
If we get a hurricane in the Gulf this year, a $20 handle is a possibility. Ten years ago, NG was trading $2.
Gaudia, Off topic but the stock market is setting up for either a nasty crash, or a snapback rally in financials that will punish latecomers to the bank shorting party. Big divergences, SPY vs. BKX and VIX vs. TNX.
Those with high risk tolerance may be richly rewarded, or see their risk capital vaporized while they take a bathroom break.
If you held a gun to my head, I would say Friday we waterfall down.
They're moving the confessional, not the goalposts.
Financial engineering at its very best.
This is perfect - the financial engineers are leaving no opportunity unused to ensure the complete breakdown of foreign financed capitalism as currently experienced in America, a nation which has defined living beyond its means as a national goal.
Bob,
Short answer: yes there are rules that cover the methodology, but the inputs are suspect. Therefore, the rules can be circumvented with incorrect assumptions.
Banks changing their books to suit them....really?
Wonder if they re-stated historical comparisons. The banks can run but they cannot hide. When I see banksters engaged in fraud behind bars I will smile and if they're stuck with some guy who has been alone for 16 years that's 6 foot 9, I will ROFLMAO.
There aren't rules about this? I find this just incredible.
Frankly, I'm surprised that WF was charging off HELOCs "early" in the past. If it's a credit line, they don't have to charge off until it goes 180. If it is a HEL (installment payments), on the other hand, they still have to take the charge at 120.
Things must be worse than we know at the banks.
btw , the bankers are your neighbors and fellow americans.
You can run but you can't hide. Those 180 days come up 60 days after 120 like the sun rises in the east.
Even the FDIC and other primary Federal and State banking regulators have no idea how bad the banks' conditions are at the moment because they do not have enough staff to monitor all of them at once and must accept the banks' call reports as accurate information. Please make sure ALL of your deposits are FDIC insured tomorrow.
This should come as a shock because?
Love Data? Zillow Wants You - Freakonomics Blog - NYTimes.com
Love Data? Zillow Wants You
By Steven D. Levitt
Weve blogged a few times about Zillow (here and here), a website that is trying to shake up the real estate industry. Ive made radical predictions about the future of the real estate industry. Im hoping that Zillow will help make those prophesies come true.
So to do my part (and because I am as susceptible to flattery as the next guy if you read on you will see what I mean), Im spreading the word about a new data analytics job that Zillow is trying to fill. If you think you have what it takes, send a resume to Chloe Harford. Here is the job description:
Job Title: Data and Analytics Specialist
Description:
Do you love answering questions and telling stories using data? Do you have a knack for transforming data into compelling insights? Do you lose track of time delving into fascinating data trends? Do you dream in numbers, pivot tables, and charts? Do you find typically that you are more likely to know who Edward Tufte and Steven Levitt are than those around you? Are you passionate about technology and transforming an industry?
If so, Zillow has the job for you. Be part of an analytics team helping to bring innovation, creativity, and excellence to the real estate industry. Youll work in an informal, collaborative atmosphere with a team of strong, smart, self-starters like yourself. Youll work hard, have a big impact in a small company, and have fun doing it!
In this role, youll conduct research and analysis on real estate market conditions and trends, millions of Zillow users and their behavior[s], and patterns in our terabytes of data. Youll tackle projects and specific ad hoc analyses on topics of interest to you, our users, and our partners. Your results will be used in blogs, the broader press, partner communications, site content, and to drive internal decision-making. Youll have plenty of opportunity to take the initiative to develop new high-impact data projects, and make recommendations based on your analyses.
Qualifications:
Excellent data, analytic, and problem-solving skills. Ability to analyze data and translate into actionable insights which can be easily understood and utilized by the entire organization, external partners, and press.
Strong knowledge of SQL (preferably MS SQL) is essential and experience getting insight from OLAP cubes is very helpful.
Strong organizational skills. Can track issues and work with other parties to resolve issues.
Superior presentation, communication, and interpersonal skills.
High energy and creativity; openness to new ideas/approaches; willingness to be flexible and do whatever you can to bring value to the team.
Qualities sought include: creativity, initiative, self-starter, attention to detail, sense of ownership, and being result-oriented, loves working in a high-energy growth environment in which data can make a substantial difference.
I only ask one thing. If you get the job, go into the Zillow database and double the value of my home, which if you believe their numbers is worth only half what I paid for it.
I reported on a local bank in my area that did this:
Bakersfield Bubble: All Central Valley financial institutions feeling real estate impact, except one?
G8 Hits Impasse On Inflation - Forbes.com
The threat of inflation to the global economy, coupled with slowing economic growth, has created a conflicting situation for economic policy responses. The complexity of the ensuing situation was exemplified in last weekend's G8 finance ministers' failure to reach consensus on the causes and solutions for rising inflation.
--The G8 communique expressed "strong concern" over the sharp rise in oil prices, which ministers noted have surpassed past peaks both in nominal and real terms, and the impact on global macro-economic stability, human welfare and development prospects.
--U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alastair Darling, among the ministers gathered in Osaka, sounded a warning that price rises could trigger wage inflation on the same scale as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s in the wake of previous oil shocks.
However, there was clear uncertainty over the causes of the problem and how to tackle it. Any hope that the G8 meeting would result in coordinated monetary action--or concerted intervention in foreign exchange markets--to counter rises, principally in commodity prices, was dispelled by their failure to agree on the phenomenon's underlying causes.
Financial markets have been linked to inflation through speculation--there are concerns that financial market conduct is a large factor in current problems:
--The G8 communique noted that elevated oil prices "fundamentally reflect rising world demand and supply constraints" as well as other elements such as "geopolitical concerns and financial factors."
--Comments made by individual ministers during the Osaka meeting suggested that some of them consider "financial factors" to include speculation in oil markets and the weakness of the U.S. dollar as significant contributors to high oil and, to a lesser extent, food prices:
--For example, Italy's Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti argued that commodity price inflation is due mainly to speculation. While demand-and-supply phenomena can cause price rises, he suggested that these will be "not so violent and sudden" as has occurred recently.
Yet in briefings after the meeting, both Paulson and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn rejected the analysis that speculation was the leading cause. Their view holds that rapidly rising commodity prices are linked to conditions in the real economy as demand is very close to maximum supply, thus placing upward pressure on prices.
A sinking dollar. Despite concerns expressed in the run up to the Osaka meeting that dollar devaluation is another factor behind commodity price inflation--and comments made by both Paulson and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in favor of a "strong dollar"--G8 ministers steered away from discussion on exchange rates.
Due to the lack of consensus, they have stated the need for further study. They called on the IMF and International Energy Agency (IEA) to work together with national authorities to carry out further analysis of "real and financial factors" behind the recent surge in oil and commodity prices, their volatility and global economic impact.
Likewise, they asked the World Bank to examine the effect on development of recent sharp rises in prices of basic food staples. This study will then inform a series of upcoming high-level gatherings:
--Both IMF/IEA and World Bank findings will be reported to the ministers' next meeting at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in October.
--The G8 summit meeting is due to be held next month in Tokyo. Although the agenda will emphasize climate change, some degree of crisis management could be required if the inflation situation continues to deteriorate.
Substantive discussion of issues such as exchange rates will await the next G7 finance ministers meeting in October.
Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world. For more information, please visit oxan.com. To find out how to subscribe to the company's Daily Brief Service, click here.
You may also sign up to The World Next Week, Oxford Analytica's free weekly service providing depth and context to next week's important international issues.
From their 10k filing (Yahoo.com):
We reported record annual net income of $9,418,000 for the year ended December 31, 2007. The majority of the increase in 2007 came from increased net interest income and a reduction in the provision for loan losses.
Chuck Prince Home Sale No Easier Than Fixing Subprime
(Request zoning variance to turn it into a dance hall saloon...)
Chuck Prince Home Sale No Easier Than Fixing Subprime (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 90 days past due "delinquent"? How can they pretend it is anything other than that?
I thought this article on Oil prices was 'illuminating'
Invalid Parameters192.168.57.74
RIYADH: An emergency meeting of oil producing and consuming countries this Sunday will give Saudi Arabia the chance to try to turn around a storm of negative publicity it has received in the US, analysts say. Washington has been Saudi Arabias closest ally since the 1940s when a tight relationship formed on the basis of guaranteed oil supplies in return for US protection for the Saudi monarchy through thick and thin.
Analysts see the Jeddah oil conference, which will examine ways of cooling record oil prices, in the same light. A string of foreign leaders including US President George W Bush have visited Riyadh this year to lobby the Saudi leadership to increase production, or persuade Opec to raise output to bring down prices as they shot past $100 per barrel. Saudi Arabias argument has consistently been that Opec responds to market needs and other factors beyond output are behind the price rises, such as speculation and a weak dollar.
Over the past week Saudi commentators and officials have strongly pushed the line that contrary to some thinking in the West, Saudi Arabia is not happy with oil at record levels and that is why the Jeddah energy meeting is being convened.
The past week has seen feverish speculation that Riyadh will present the gift of a unilaterally-announced boost in production next month to 9.7 million barrels per day, from 9.5 million. Some Opec countries have reacted coolly to the idea, with Iran, Iraq and Libya saying supply was not the issue. Iranian and Venezuelan leaders regularly talk in glowing terms of oils climb from the days of $10 a barrel in the late 1990s.
BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc., which is based in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., earlier this year transferred about $100 million of troubled commercial-real-estate loans into a new subsidiary.
Yep, transferred to their BankAtlantis Bancorp subsidiary, where every mortgage is underwater.
Washington Mutual, battered by the nationwide housing downturn, is poised to announce another round of layoffs Thursday that will affect at least several hundred employees nationwide across all departments.
New York - Runnin' Scared - Former Senator Gravel Backs NYC 9/11 Commission
After two presidential runs in one year, former Senator Mike Gravel is setting his sites on New York City politics, specifically a grassroots effort to have New York City citizens vote to establish a new September 11th investigation commission.
The petition drive needs at least 30,000 residents to give their signatures in order to place a potential amendment to the city charter on the November ballot. The former Alaska senator and lifelong political loose cannon threw his weight behind the effort to establish a second, privately funded investigation into the events of September 11th, in response to what he called a fatally flawed 9/11 Commission report.
Even the commissioners and their panderers admit it had shortcomings Gravel said. This commission will be made up of people with only one stake: finding the truth.
Petition drive leaders say their efforts began in February, and thus far have gathered around 10,000 signatures in support of the ballot initiative. That leaves another 20,000 signatures that the petitioners must collect before an early September deadline. Even if they collect the needed signatures, they must clear additional hurdles. The City Council must approve the measure, although a council rejection of ballot initiative can be overridden by the collection of 15,000 more signatures. Mayor Michael Bloomberg can also unilaterally veto the measure.
Despite the hurdles, volunteers are pressing on. Coordinator Les Jamieson said that the key would be building a mass movement able to pressure the government in the case of a Bloomberg veto. While the petition drive does not presuppose a particular theory of what happened on 9/11, Jamieson cited the influence of web-driven 9/11 conspiracy theory research as a key motivators for many volunteers.
If you take physics 101, you know that oxygen-fed fires dont burn hot enough to melt or bend steel said volunteer Doug Wight. No one knows what happened, but we know what theyre telling isnt true.
Conspiracy theory research has sparked some mainstream controversy already, with Popular Mechanics and the Department of State refuting the major claims of some conspiracy theories.
The full ballot initiative, which can be viewed at nyc911initiative.org/, would appoint 15 people, including Gravel, former Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chaffee, activists, and representatives of 9/11 victims families. The commission would rely on private financing, with a budget of $10 million a year.
Despite the prominence of 9-11 conspiracy theorists at yesterday's press conference, former Senator Gravel directed most of his comments at supporting his vision of direct democracy in America. Were trying to change the paradigm of human governance by supporting ballot initiatives such as this across the country, he said. To have power you should be able to vote on all issues that affect your lives.
Gravel said he supports any efforts to bring accountability to the Bush administration, also claiming that he expects a new commission to uncover crimes committed in the lead-up to 9/11.
The sooner we put a President, a Vice President, a Secretary of Defense in jail, the sooner things will shape up he said, adding that impeachment is too soft.
News Flash
As of July 1st Wellsfargo will not write down HELOCS till they are 270 days past due.
News Flash
As of August 1st Wells Fargo will not write down HELOCS till they are 300 days past due.
News Flash
The goldpost is being moved because the game is all about discretionary abuses and the ability to front-run regulation or oversight!
We the people should be able to move our goldposts in the form of guillotines, and remove these bastards from our turf!
Nikkei serves justice and rice with a discount of -361 or 2.5%. Fish heads are 200 yen and trading with oil against dollar swaps.
Prince's house is for sale. What a boring, unimaginative interior. This guy's taste is from AD. And this is the imaginative leader of the largest bank in the US? Why would a board of directors hire a man who has such plebian tastes? Ah, he reflects the Bd of Directors who are still in control of that bank. I wouldn't even waste my time wishing to visit what is yet another boring rich person's home. Sadly, he's not going to live in it longer; if he moved the furniture out, the living room could be a nice private dance floor. But that would require imagination and intellectual guts. Not that intellectual clown in a suit. Now he's Florida; lucky Florida.
Maybe you shouldn't put a small S&L in Brooklyn (Astoria) with a major bank like Wells Fargo in the same article and draw inferences. There is also a difference between classifying a loan as non-performing (as Astoria is doing according to your report) and writing it off (a la Wells Fargo). It might be worth a call or email to Wells to see what the rationale behind the change is before jumping to conclusions.
BTW-I am not flacking for Wells, don't own their stock and have no other conflicts.
Glad to see you took your GNC generosity drink and magnanimous pills today Tom!
A loan is non-performing once the borrower has missed 6 payments?
That seems 'bout right...
Nikkei down over 2.5% today, so far.
And I was hoping for an uptick tomorrow to start buying some puts.
Royal Bank of Scotland issues global stock and credit market crash alert
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert - Telegraph
tom, he was using the astoria item as an illustration. Wells has been getting universally slammed for numerous shifts in accounting interpretation since the crisis hit. They needed to show a profit, and did, when all they really did was delay reporting a loss.
Once again, anonymous, speculation without verification.
OK - if that's how the banks want to play then maybe some homeowners may want to move a couple of goal posts of their own using family 1's PREP plan below. The banks won't like it:
Janjuah's warning: "A very nasty period is soon to be upon us--be prepared," he said, according to a report published in the Daily Telegraph newspaper on Wednesday. He advised that cash was the "key" safe haven.
Well if cash is 'key' heading into what could become a serious economic decline, I'm going to keep track of two homeowner families, each with 10% current equity, and contrast how they are doing at the end of 12 months using 2 approaches:
Family 1 will become "stay-ins", saving the PI and tax payments (during the probable 12 month foreclosure process) for use as future rent or downpayment $ so they can walk away from their possibly unsaleable house, retaining the alternative to become current at the end of 10-11 months and stay if home prices are unchanged or slightly lower but heading up, while they heal their credit dent.
Family 2 will stay current, hoping that they won't be trapped in an underwater house at the end of 12 months.
We'll follow them along periodically and see who is doing better at the end of 11 months: family 1 with either of a) cash, an apartment and a credit dent or b) a house with equity, no 'stay-in' cash, and a credit dent, or family 2 with a) same or more equity as last year or b) stuck in their underwater house.
I'll call family 1's plan PREP: the Personal Real Estate Put.
Lindmark sux!
Tom,
If I go to sleep ad there's no snow on the ground, yet when I wake up in the morning there's a foot on the ground, what should I assume?
A tupolev cargo plane full of coke crashed in my neighborhood?
I know for fact that WF has had unexpected default rates in all sectors, whether subprime, alt-A or prime. Still better than the other banks, yet unexpected nonetheless.
I was told to expect 1 more quarter of bad news from WF in April, this would explain why.
Tom,
WTFU
look, I could care less what Wells or any of these guys decide to do. An educated investor can look at this crap and see that there numbers will dip at some point in the near future based off what they did accounting wise. It doesn't really make a difference...just a curious strategy when every other major investment bank is taking their lumps now.
Two comments and then off to bed.
Rhodesian, Erudite as ever.
Alec, If you are going to cite facts then provide a link to prove them. Otherwise they aren't facts, they are opinions.
And the European aristocracy and its "figure head" monarchy have had just about enough of this funny business. Hence, the VERY significant RBS crash warning...
Like Anonymous | 06.19.08 - 1:58 am | # implies-
It wouldn't matter if they moved the goalposts if they could split the uprights. But it looks like they're still hooking them to the left. Instead of 0 for 4 months they're 0 for 6 months. WooHoo, better numbers!
At AtlantisBank, can you get an underwater car loan and an underwater credit card too?
OT: 38 percent increase in electric bill sought
38 percent increase in electric bill sought : Local News : The Rocky Mountain News
Damn. Nat gas is going to kill people this summer and winter.
Tom,
I'd reference my facts except the I would be betraying confidences amongst the people I know.
These sources are impeccible and have been proven right over time, but at the ed of the day it's just one voice in the internet. YMMV, but I don't even dabble I their advice so I keep a clear mind.
If you don't like it, get bent.
Who Knew?
Bill Fleckenstein has been calling them financial blackhole for years. They make up their numbers as they go.
Tom-
If I can be helpful, WaMu has some truly terrible loan pools. The are the very examples of unexpectedly high levels of default used by Mish (et al) to indicate "walking away":
* original pool $513,969,100.
* 92.6% rated AAA.
* 22.89% in foreclosure or REO at 1 year.
* 31.17% 60+ days delinquent
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bring On The Alt-A Downgrades
Just search google for "wmalt 2007" for more comentary. There are other prime pools that are also astoundingly bad.
BigR,
Yeah, the media is not even talking about nat gas at all right now, but we are back into a price range that has only been explored after Katrina's destruction.
If we get a hurricane in the Gulf this year, a $20 handle is a possibility. Ten years ago, NG was trading $2.
Gaudia, Off topic but the stock market is setting up for either a nasty crash, or a snapback rally in financials that will punish latecomers to the bank shorting party. Big divergences, SPY vs. BKX and VIX vs. TNX.
Those with high risk tolerance may be richly rewarded, or see their risk capital vaporized while they take a bathroom break.
If you held a gun to my head, I would say Friday we waterfall down.
Last anonymous comment was me.
They're moving the confessional, not the goalposts.
Financial engineering at its very best.
This is perfect - the financial engineers are leaving no opportunity unused to ensure the complete breakdown of foreign financed capitalism as currently experienced in America, a nation which has defined living beyond its means as a national goal.
How can a bank as large and regulated as Wells Fargo be able to just pick a number? There aren't rules about this? I find this just incredible.
The regulators who allow this are setting themselves up for another black eye.
Bob,
Short answer: yes there are rules that cover the methodology, but the inputs are suspect. Therefore, the rules can be circumvented with incorrect assumptions.
Banks changing their books to suit them....really?
Wonder if they re-stated historical comparisons. The banks can run but they cannot hide. When I see banksters engaged in fraud behind bars I will smile and if they're stuck with some guy who has been alone for 16 years that's 6 foot 9, I will ROFLMAO.
Tom Lindmark, you should consider reading the referenced article before opening your hole. The Wells info is directly from the WSJ article, not CR.
Maybe you should ask Murdoch to reveal his sources.
"The WSJ is reporting that banks are changing their accounting rules to make their numbers look better."
Skip the B/S and I/S and go straight to the Statement of Cash Flows.
There aren't rules about this? I find this just incredible.
Frankly, I'm surprised that WF was charging off HELOCs "early" in the past. If it's a credit line, they don't have to charge off until it goes 180. If it is a HEL (installment payments), on the other hand, they still have to take the charge at 120.