OT- Mexico unexpectedly raised rates, to 7.75%.... is this a domino falling, or just some random noise...
About a half dozen nations have raised rates already, so i don;t think the FED if they do raise, will have any NET effect. They are better off staying put.
So Ford is still forecasting higher sales than the industry is actually experiencing. They must be really invested in that second half recovery fantasy.
Yeah the next 60 days you dont want to breath too much of the air. Now with the oil companies going 24/7 365 the refineries are making the air soo much nicer...
The Big Three have been cannibalizing future sales using toxic financing since 2001. It's only been REIC & HELOC money that's kept them alive ever since. I suspect 12.5 may yet prove optimistic.
Will this Ford and slowing car sales trend impact Goldman with subprime auto loan? I think so, but I imagine the swaps connected to these types of credit-linked asset-back derivatives will be more nails in a coffin already full of holes!
For example, most people ranked an improvement from 34 to 50 mpg as saving more gas over 10,000 miles than an improvement from 18 to 28 mpg, even though the latter saves twice as much gas. (Going from 34 to 50 mpg saves 94 gallons; but from 18 to 28 mpg saves 198 gallons).
These mistaken impressions were corrected, however, when participants were presented with fuel efficiency expressed in gallons used per 100 miles rather than mpg. Viewed this way, 18 mpg becomes 5.5 gallons per 100 miles, and 28 mpg is 3.6 gallons per 100 miles -- an $8 difference today.
Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson said that Ford and GM may need to write down $1.1 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, as the residual values of lease vehicles are likely to be substantial lower than originally expected.
"This is especially true for traditional trucks, which have been disproportionately hurt by the accelerating mix shift towards more fuel-efficient cars," Johnson said.
Skyrocketing oil prices are pushing the U.S. auto market to near-decade lows, with American drivers looking further into more fuel-efficient automobiles rather than trucks and sport utility vehicles. Subsequently, pickups and SUVs have been hit with some of the sharpest price declines in the used-vehicle market.
Economy going into gridlock due to exponentially increasing oil prices. Oil is going to get obliterated. $70.00 by the end of the year. $40.00 by the end of next year. Short accordingly!
Then there is the downside. How many downstream jobs get lost when the "Big Three" go down? How many just in a recession? How many union jobs are going to be lost? What will happen to the pensions?
This is not a good thing for Americans. Yes, management are idiots an the Unions corrupt but think about it a little.
Would you like to live in a small city that had a significant number of people employed in some fashion from the crumbs of Detroit? Good-bye taxes, services, a future.
Bitterness, Glod, and Guns. A gutted social safety net. Recession. A broke county, state, and federal government. At least the military will not have a problem with recruiting.
"Yeah the next 60 days you dont want to breath too much of the air. Now with the oil companies going 24/7 365 the refineries are making the air soo much nicer...
crispy&cole"
Doesn't that stuff blow over to Tehachapi, home of Jas Jain? Maybe that explains it.
I read early in the week that lots of full tankers are sitting at port in the middle east, and here is why:
Investment banks and hedge fund companies are buying up huge reserves of oil overseas, Cota said, and holding on to those reserves to drive the price of oil up.
The price of crude oil jumped 90 cents in May, according to Cota, a time when the price of oil is usually stable.
"No one is using it. No one is buying it. And no one is selling it," said Cota. "The price is artificially high. It should be half of what it is."
About a half dozen nations have raised rates already, so i don;t think the FED if they do raise, will have any NET effect. They are better off staying put.
BB
No hike is a de facto cut, the slide in the dollar over the last 3 days shows this. They HAVE to raise 25bp just to continue running in place and still have an accomodative policy.
Re: Investment banks and hedge fund companies are buying up huge reserves of oil overseas, Cota said, and holding on to those reserves to drive the price of oil up.
Iran, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, increased the number of tankers idling in the Persian Gulf to at least 14, indicating it may be storing more crude, ship-tracking data show.
Iran has at least 14 very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, floating near Kharg Island, a loading facility. In April, there were 10, holding at least 20 million barrels of oil, people familiar with the situation said at the time. Shipbrokers also reported that Iran hired three more tankers, which have been near Kharg Island for at least two weeks.
If you have money and don't need to spend it now, you have to put it somewhere.
What's wrong with putting your money into oil to make sure it doesn't get dedimated by inflation?
Oh, I forgot. People need oil. People can use oil to live.
People can't use dollars or stocks to live.
If the stock market really had permanent strength (as opposed to short-term, liquidity-driven speculative strength), more money would be going into stocks and less into oil.
"Investment banks and hedge fund companies are buying up huge reserves of oil overseas, Cota said, and holding on to those reserves to drive the price of oil up."
When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance.
Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, is conducting all its crude trading in euro and yen, instead of the U.S. dollar, an Iranian official was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Iran has been reducing its exposure to the dollar as the United States has ratcheted up sanctions because of a dispute over Tehran's nuclear programm
The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia, at a five-month high, may climb for a third day as oil companies chase a dwindling supply of vessels for cargoes that are due to be collected in June. There are 25 double-hull very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, available for hire within the next 30 days, according to a report Friday from Paris-based Barry Rogliano Salles. A month ago there were 54 such ships available.
"Farms are underwater and there ain't no fish in the sea. Think they are screwed." (re unemployed Ford workers).
Well I suspect there is always work for male nurses who are strong enough to lift patients from bed, etc., etc. Medical care is probably one industry that will not experience any layoffs at all for a long time.
he benchmark hire rate for very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, sailing to Asia climbed at the fastest pace in at least 16 years in November and December, prompting oil companies to withhold cargoes to temper the gains. The key rental price has dropped every day since Dec. 19, the Baltic Exchange data showed.
It's dropping in the way that it came up,'' Nikos Varvaropoulos, an Athens-based broker at Optima Shipbrokers, said by phone today.Every charterer is trying to fix lower and lower and lower. It's a matter of mentality.''
Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. oil company, hired the tanker Astro Chorus at a rate of 175 Worldscale points, according to a report today from Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles. That's 0.6 percent higher than the London-based Baltic Exchange's benchmark rate of 173.91 points.
Astro Chorus, built in 2001, is fitted with two steel hulls to cut the risk of an oil spill. Supply of cheaper-to-hire single-hulled tankers is ``very good,'' said Varvaropoulos. The exchange's key assessment, which is for vessels up to 15 years old, takes into account both vessel types.
There are 115 modern two-hulled tankers available for hire within the next 30 days, according to the report from Barry Rogliano Salles. There were 111 yesterday.
Exxon, roughly the size of Sweden, is importing Brazilian sugar cane methanol, even though there is a substantial tariff on it to satisfy Iowa corn growers. The tariff has backfired. Here's why.
Exxon receives a refund of the tariff because they use it as an 'ingredient' in their gasoline.
So, the next time you pull up at the pump, remember:
Leading shipbroker EA Gibson pointed out last Friday that so far this year VLCC earnings have averaged close to $110,000 per day, with current earnings at $175,000 per day; this is a whopping 140% increase compared with January-May 2007.
According to Tankerworld data, the start of this week saw average VLCC spot rates for all routes rise above WS 200 to hit WS 212 on Tuesday.
Average VLCC spot rates for all routes have risen more than 125 Worldscale points from WS 86 on April 8, the data shows.
While $140 is probably a little bit silly, and T. Boone Pickens' $150 target not likely to be supportable, I don't think we'll see $40 oil anytime soon; there are very real demand side factors driving prices upwards since 2000 (not just speculation, hoarding, and political instability).
About a half dozen nations have raised rates already, so i don;t think the FED if they do raise, will have any NET effect. They are better off staying put.
BB
Well...
If the difference in nominal interest rates here and overseas encourages further carry trades it could cause more capital outflows from the US and effectively create tighter credit conditions (by driving up interest rates on corporate bonds, mortgages, etc.).
Remember when we used to drive cars? Those were the days!
Actually we still do, they just call them F-150s and such. It seems (anecdotally to me) that in an effort to make them more comfortable for people who bought them even though they didn't need trucks, the 1/2 tons really degraded in capabilities.
My anecdotes are one friend who hooked his father's late 90's F150 to a car trailer (with a cool REO pickup project on it) and the headlights basically pointed skyward. So he hooked his '79 F150 up and it was just fine.
Another friend loaded his 2005 Ram 1500 with mulch - shredded bark, for chrissakes - and just wallowed down the road it was so overloaded.
What is really sad is to go thru like Reese's catalog and find all the stiffeners/swaybars etc. needed for those SUV's to haul anything without killing everybody aboard.
My point is (yeah I actually have one) is that the vehicle purchases people have been making were, maybe more than ever in history, driven by vanity and group status rather than by any need. Because if they actually needed these things to do what they thought they could do they would have found them way inadequate.
Big houses, same thing.
And again, how are we going to unwind these positions?
As we anticipated, the VLCC market, at least in the Middle East Gulf, benefited from the first flow of July nominations. With more than 30 fixtures concluded this week from this zone, owners (especially of modern units) have managed to push rates further up.
No hike is a de facto cut, the slide in the dollar over the last 3 days shows this. They HAVE to raise 25bp just to continue running in place and still have an accomodative policy.
Running to stand still.
ac writes:
Well...
If the difference in nominal interest rates here and overseas encourages further carry trades it could cause more capital outflows from the US and effectively create tighter credit conditions (by driving up interest rates on corporate bonds, mortgages, etc.).
Well Japan hasn't raise theirs yet and neither has China i believe.
And to raise rates now before the other decreases are felt would just prove to the masses that the fed is impotent and is led by the market(we know). This decrease in rates was to protect the equity market and the banks, nothing else.
Cota said, and holding on to those reserves to drive the price of oil up.
Oh, give me a break. Oil is $130 freaking dollars a barrel. I've got an oil tanker I filled up at $100/bbl, you've got one too, a worldwide recession looms.
What I'm doing is I'm seeing if I can dig up a leftover Saturn V inital boost stage so I can ensure that I get my tanker to port before yours.
It's so funny how everybody forgets everything they believed about markets when the markets give them an answer for the price of oil that they don't like.
If you look at the price of oil, it's got to be linked to the fact that there's demand,'' Mathieu Philippe, a tanker broker in Dubai for Barry Rogliano, said by telephone. ''They've got to be holding back that demand'' and it will lead to increased tanker bookings either this week or next, he said.
Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's biggest oil company, booked the tanker Astro Carina for 92.5 Worldscale points, according to a report from London-based shipbroker Galbraith's Ltd. That's 0.3 percent above the London-based Baltic Exchange's benchmark assessment of 92.16 points for a voyage to Asia.
Astro Carina should normally cost more to hire than the benchmark because it's fitted with a double hull to cut the risk of an oil spill. The exchange's assessment is for ships up to 15 years old, of which 13 percent aren't fitted with full double hulls.
A 30 percent drop in the benchmark hire rate this month may spur owners to slow their ships down to cut fuel consumption, meaning that some of the carriers that are sailing back to the Middle East will not get there when oil companies are expecting them, Philippe said.
Port Tariffs
Worldscale points are a percentage of a nominal rate, or flat rate, for more than 320,000 specific routes. Flat rates for every voyage, quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, are revised annually by the Worldscale Association in London to reflect changing fuel costs, port tariffs and exchange rates.
Each flat rate assessment gives owners and oil companies a starting point for negotiating hire rates without having to calculate the value of each deal from scratch.
At 92.19 Worldscale points, owners of double-hulled VLCCs can earn about $55,777 a day on a 39-day round trip from Saudi Arabia to South Korea, based on a formula by R.S. Platou, an Oslo-based shipbroker, and marine fuel prices compiled by Bloomberg.
Everyone seems to be looking at super high oil prices and blaming speculators but it really, to me, seems to be a function of the weakness of the dollar.
If the dollar has not fallen by over 30%, oil would be below 100 and i believe inflation would still be contained(relatively). But of course, big financials/banks would had to have failed and that of course is a not going to happen.
Having said this, if it is proven that the high price of oil is inherently a supply-demand issue(peak oil?), then I guess the weakness of the dollar would mean less, but nonetheless oil would Still be cheaper than it is now.
Bookings for VLCCs sailing from the Middle East to Asia account for 47 per cent of global carrier demand, while the Middle East-Asia route remains the world's busiest for supertankers.
The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia last week stood at 192.03 worldscale points and is expected to rise this week. At that rate owners of double-hulled VLCCs, can earn $152,429 a day on a 39-day round trip from Saudi Arabia to South Korea, based on a formula by RS Platou, an Oslo-based shipbroker, and Bloomberg marine fuel prices.
"The future is very bright for regional shipping companies. Increasing freight rates mean high returns. We have seen more operators choosing to move to this region to cash in on the returns," said Mark Thomas, a shipping consultant based in Kuwait.
U.S. large-cap regional banks' stocks now appear to be in "capitulation mode" and will likely trade below fair value in the near term as more dividend cuts and capital raises, high credit risk and an uncertain earnings outlook all weigh on their share prices, an analyst at Merrill Lynch said.
Consider for Iran, which has an interdiction mission in any future war with the US, how much easier and cheaper it is to rent these ships than to sink them.
Each one locked up at Karg Island can't be stolen, can't be sunk, can't be used to haul oil to the LOOP.
I would not blame everything on the PPT or the creature from Jekyll Island. There is very real military gamesmanship as well. Even if this is "just" to ratchet up the price of oil and let the zombie banks commodity trade themselves back to life on our part, the Iranians have their own goals.
Well Japan hasn't raise theirs yet and neither has China i believe.
And to raise rates now before the other decreases are felt would just prove to the masses that the fed is impotent and is led by the market(we know). This decrease in rates was to protect the equity market and the banks, nothing else.
The major difference here is that Japan is a production economy and the US is a consumption economy.
So in the short-term the weaker currency that accompanies lower rates and outflows would tend to benefit Japan (production). The opposite would tend to happen with a consumption based economy like the US.
Longer-term the weaker dollar might foster production growth locally if it doesn't ultimately lead to a global recession.
Hedge Fund Cheat On The Run; Faked Suicide
Federal Marshals and New York State Police investigators appear certain that disgraced hedge fund manager Sam Israel III faked a suicide plunge earlier this week and is now on the run after failing to report to federal prison to begin a 20 year sentence on Monday, official sources say. Hedge Fund Cheat On The Run; Faked Suicide - ABC News
Property values in U.S. cities are expected to tumble by $1.46 trillion in 2008 due to the housing downturn and subprime mortgage crisis that has pushed the U.S. economy to the brink of recession, American mayors were told on Friday.
BB writes:
The next sector to be hit would be tech, simply because of the number of analysts are bullish on it.
I bought a boatload of QID yesterday afternoon simply because of the ridiculous, unjustified run-up in the Nasdaq. Now I just need to decide if this crash has legs into next week.
I think this game is all about capturing oil and constraining demand and thus control supply. This is being done by storing future value through the process of limiting supply and driving up cost for the demand. Renting ships as floating storage units is smart, because it takes away that ship from being used by someone else, this is a chess game and they are blocking oil supplies and using investment banks as pawns. This is also a bubble, because these pawns will become greedy and overpay at the wrong time and then hold a supply at the wrong time, as the game of musical chairs becomes a hot potato, tossed from one speculator to the next. This game of speculation obviously has the associated game of currency hedging in the form of driving down the dollar and conversely adding fuel to the inflation fire -- making this game of hedging, more a matter of price manipulation. If this is price manipulation, as I think it is, then we need to have a nice investigation and determine who is connected and what type of conspiracy and collusion we have. The problem of course, is that we have a pro oil agenda in place where the current leadership seems highly supportive and connected to being part of this collusion by a very deep connection to wall street and The New Fed, with new powers mentality:
Also, see Sherman Act: Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, is declared to be illegal. Every person who shall make any contract or engage in any combination or conspiracy hereby declared to be illegal shall be deemed guilty of a felony, and, on conviction thereof, shall be punished by fine not exceeding $10,000,000 if a corporation, or, if any other person, $350,000, or by imprisonment not exceeding three years, or by both said punishments, in the discretion of the court.
It may be that the financial system, by hook or crook(s), will stabilize itself.
But I'm not selling my gold until Bush is out of the White House. Until he's gone, there's potential for a huge "black swan" -- with the star and bars on the fuselage.
It strikes me as retarded -- that an owner of a Quikiemart or Any-Gas_Station-USA (AGSU) who is not just sitting on supply is dumb!
If the VLCC crowd can sit on oil, then why not sit on oil at your gas station and just hoard the supply and wait for the price to go up? This makes a 1100% sense, because essentially it's just cost averaging on your investment. I mean, why be ethical and feel you have to have a steady supply of gas at your station, i.e, just take a delivery of gas for all your pumps, then just shut off two or three and let them sit idle, until the price goes up -- immediate increase in profit margin. Sure you burn some cash to store it, but do the math like the guys with the VLCCs!
small gas station will have a 1,000 gallon tank. A medium, about 8-10,000 (500 fill-ups?). A big truck stop could have a 500,000 gallon tank. The bigger question is how many tanks do they have. Older stations have 3 tanks (reg, plus, super). Newer stations will have 4 (diesel). And you have some like the truck stop in New Mexico that has two 1,000,000 tanks sitting on the hillside. In addition, newer the station, the smaller will be the tank. EPA rules start adding double liners and catch basins. There is only so much property space, so they will install smaller tanks to fit.
The tanker trailer holds around 10,000 gallons. This lets them fill up 3 to 4 gas stations on a run.
Also see: I take it from your yelling that you don't like my tofu dogs. ( Apu Nahasapeemapetilan from Simpson's)
Inspector: Apu Nahasapeemapetilan, you have disgraced the Kwik-E-Mart Corporation.
Apu: But, sir, I was only following standard procedure.
Inspector: Ah, true. But it's also standard procedure to blame any problems on a scapegoat or sacrificial lamb.
Apu: Uh huh, and if I can obtain for you these animals?
Oh come on, if the VLCCs can hoard, why can't a Kwik-E-Mart ??
Re: "We are just hoping to get the word out to the public just how dangerous it is to store gasoline," said Jennifer L. Mieth of the state Fire Marshal's Office.
It is not only dangerous - it is illegal. State law, surprisingly to many, prohibits the storage of more than a quart of gasoline in any part of a building used for human habitation, including attached garages.
This means that pretty much everyone with a snowblower or lawn mower in an attached garage, along with the attendant gasoline containers, is in violation of the law.
Rest assured, however, that investigators of the state Fire Marshal's Office do not plan on conducting garage surveillance operations any time soon, said Mieth.
The regulations, she said, have been in place for a "very long time" - long before attached garages became prevalent.
Im guessing that oil prices are the bailout of the banks on a global scale-- make everyone pay and not look like a bailout. What the investment banks and hedge funds have started doing with the seed money from the fed is speculating in the commodities market to recapitalize their books to compensate for the real estate mortgage write downs and prevent bankruptcy. Since the banks have billions of dollars (from the fed) to invest, they invest in oil and drive up prices drastically and then cash out to recapitalize themselves making the entire world pay for their bad bets in the mortgage meltdown. Im guessing the banks will get screwed again and get left holding their expensive oil contracts. Opinions on this theory?
I'm with yah baby! I think that full disclosure of Level 3 or Level 8 assets would help reveal this type of activity, but -- would speculation in commodities be crooked? As I posted, if there is a collusion-like anti-trust-like Sherman Act violation, hmmmm, so what? We have The Worst Congress & Senate in US history, so will they of DOJ, FBI, CIA, FTC do anything....no!
I think if this theory were to be un-covered and made public by disclosure of Level 3+ we could at least consider that people would boycott certain banks and oil companies, but even then, these people are like snakes that crawl like fog on to the next evil and destructive illegal activity....so what yah gonna do. Maybe yah join um and slap each other on the back and give high 5's for starving people?
Add the worst Supreme Court in recent memory, and no one's has even been talking about the cases that matter. In the last several years, the Supreme Court has watered down the reach of Sherman removing per se anti-competitive rules. Additionally, the Court has increased the threshold requirement for the feds to prove fraud, collusion, etc. You almost have to have a smoking gun memo now.
I think a lot of this oil is sour heavy crude from Iran, which isn't easy to market. Not all refineries can take all grades of crude. Saudi has light sweet crude which is cheap and easy to refine. Valero can refine this stuff, because they upgraded their refineries to do it by stuffing $1000 bills into the refineries. But they can't make any money on it now because the crack spread is so low, i.e. they can't price their gasoline so they make any money after they buy the crude. I beleve only one or two refineries can take the oil from the Alberta tar sands, and convert it to gasoline. I wouldn't be so quick to call those tankers a restraint of trade. Maybe nobody wants that grade of crude right now. And don't forget our Congressmen want to sue OPEC for price fixing too.
Hey anyone looking at the DOW right now? Where is the PPT?
Im guessing the banks will get screwed again and get left holding their expensive oil contracts. Opinions on this theory?
I'm guessing Goldman and Morgan will be smart enough to migrate to short positions before the bottom falls out. In fact, they may actually instigate the sell off when they have their positions ready. Their balance sheets will be improved, and they will be ready for any Fed assisted take-overs of their failing peers.
Well I suspect there is always work for male nurses who are strong enough to lift patients from bed, etc., etc. Medical care is probably one industry that will not experience any layoffs at all for a long time.
Chris | 06.20.08 - 12:54 pm
they are bringing in lots of nurses from India, Nigeria, The Phillipines, etc. And you can only lift twinkie-based life forms for so many years before your back goes out.
I really want a new lightweight pick up truck. Everything at Toyota is a monster. I'm hoping the current environment puts pressure on automakers to return to the days of small fuel efficient trucks again. With the option of a 7' bed.
Well, I know King George's good buddy Grover Norquist is mighty happy at this turn of events. He's the guy who said he'd like to reduce the federal gubbermint small enough so he could drown it in the bathtub.
Of course, what Grover didn't elaborate on is how he'd also be happy to drown all those poor old farts whose social security payments make all the difference in the world. But Grover subscribes to the GOP philosophy that kicking a man when he's down is the best way to get a shoe shine, so he's OK with that.
I too was amazed to see how lowly valued Ford and GM have become. A few months ago the WSJ had an article showing the market capitalization of the 30 companies of the Dow DJIA.
GM was dead last, and by a wide margin. It doesn't even belong in the Dow if market-cap is the main criterion.
You're right, BigR. The unions knew that the Big Three and other smokestack industries wouldn't be able to honor their unfunded pension commitments, so the PBGC was founded. Most Americans never even knew about it at the time, but Uncle Sam is obligated to kick in big-time cash when the Detroit Three go under.
An emerging question: Is the U.S. Government Too Big to Fail?
@Leftys Liquors: I think a lot of this oil is sour heavy crude from Iran, which isn't easy to market. Not all refineries can take all grades of crude. Saudi has light sweet crude which is cheap and easy to refine...I wouldn't be so quick to call those tankers a restraint of trade. Maybe nobody wants that grade of crude right now.
NYTimes piece today on Why Is Oil So High? supports Lefty's take:
...no two countries indeed, no two fields produce the same kinds of crude oil, and refineries typically specialize in specific grades. As the lighter, more easily processed oil runs low, the world is slowly relying more on gooier, sulfur-rich varieties. That is straining the ability of refineries to produce more gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
In the face of torrid demand, Iran has struggled for over a month to sell about 25 million barrels despite the steepest price discounts on record.
The oil, stored in tankers in the Persian Gulf, is the sulfur-heavy variety. According to news reports and industry estimates, Iran has offered to cut its price by as much as $13 a barrel but still has not found buyers.
I am hopeful some good can come of this mess. Maybe, now, America can shake it's death grasp on these rediculous sized pick ups and SUVs, and start to make fuel efficient vehicles. That will help us shake our dependence on that foreign black goo.
Remember when we used to drive cars? Those were the days!
Remember when construction workers had jobs, so they could buy trucks? Those were the days!
They aren't warning on sales they are warning on insolvency, just like some of the banks. Wink, Wink.
12.5 million seems to be the industry consensus.
Cerberus is probably clipping coupons right about now.
whodathunk!
Petey Wheatstraw writes:
Remember when we used to drive cars? Those were the days!
Seattle Post-Intelligencer: David Horsey
Must confess i posted this a day or two earlier, but couldn't resist.
OT- Mexico unexpectedly raised rates, to 7.75%.... is this a domino falling, or just some random noise...
anyone? bueller?
giocatoli writes:
OT- Mexico unexpectedly raised rates, to 7.75%.... is this a domino falling, or just some random noise...
About a half dozen nations have raised rates already, so i don;t think the FED if they do raise, will have any NET effect. They are better off staying put.
Wouldn't we have to raise rates sometime soon though? Is our debt that attractive that we won't have to raise rates?
Have you driven a Ford lately?
(Remember that commercial?)
Joe Klein's conscience writes:
Wouldn't we have to raise rates sometime soon though? Is our debt that attractive that we won't have to raise rates?
No way are rates going to go up, without some sort of bailout already put in place for those financials. Till then it's all Verbal Intervention.
Waiting for Ford executives to claim "no one without a job ever purchased a Ford..."
So Ford is still forecasting higher sales than the industry is actually experiencing. They must be really invested in that second half recovery fantasy.
Are all the auto workers going to start working on farms now? That or move to Alaska and become fishermen.
tj - 10 more days and we are in the clear, as the 2nd half begin.
12.5 million vehicles would be a depression for the auto industry.
GM broke thourgh their 1974 low. That is amazing!
crispy,
I'm sure that the economic "spring is in the air" in Bakersfield! Hmmmm... that's not spring, is it?
Yeah the next 60 days you dont want to breath too much of the air. Now with the oil companies going 24/7 365 the refineries are making the air soo much nicer...
The Big Three have been cannibalizing future sales using toxic financing since 2001. It's only been REIC & HELOC money that's kept them alive ever since. I suspect 12.5 may yet prove optimistic.
Perhaps a certain absent poster who claims to buy a new SUV every time oil pulls back 5% will buy 10 new ones when oil finally hits $130.
All but one U.S. state reported a higher jobless rate in May, led by Michigan and Rhode Island.
Virtually all state jobless rates higher in May
| Reuters
Location, Location , location.
"Are all the auto workers going to start working on farms now? That or move to Alaska and become fishermen."
Farms are underwater and there ain't no fish in the sea. Think they are screwed.
crispy,
It's going to 115F in the SFValley today. What's it like in beautiful downtown BAKERSfield?
Full disclosure, I own a 03 Ford Expedition. Been a solid truck. Hope I can continue to get parts for it after Ford shutters it's factories.
Cheers,
OT, but related to crude oil prices: Getting ready
And another: I thought red is lucky color for Chinese...
105 or so. The shitty part is at 1:00 am it will still be 100. No relief in sight
Will this Ford and slowing car sales trend impact Goldman with subprime auto loan? I think so, but I imagine the swaps connected to these types of credit-linked asset-back derivatives will be more nails in a coffin already full of holes!
Page expired - MSN Money
Winnebago showing no relief for the RV business
What's it like in beautiful downtown BAKERSfield?
Brown air, oil smell, pesticide smell, and hotter then hell. Umm, Umm
TJ-Exactly....
Well with oil over $135, people won't drive as much...there cars last longer.
Better gear down to a 12M/yr car market.
Cheers,
Crysler will be dead within a year but who will be next?
So when you remove too easy credit, sales collapse?
Gee, now who was expecting that?
OT- Mexico unexpectedly raised rates, to 7.75%.... is this a domino falling, or just some random noise...
Central banks are finally getting religion. About 10 years too late.
Gallons Per Mile Would Help Car Shoppers Make Better Decisions
Gallons Per Mile Would Help Car Shoppers Make Better Decisions
For example, most people ranked an improvement from 34 to 50 mpg as saving more gas over 10,000 miles than an improvement from 18 to 28 mpg, even though the latter saves twice as much gas. (Going from 34 to 50 mpg saves 94 gallons; but from 18 to 28 mpg saves 198 gallons).
These mistaken impressions were corrected, however, when participants were presented with fuel efficiency expressed in gallons used per 100 miles rather than mpg. Viewed this way, 18 mpg becomes 5.5 gallons per 100 miles, and 28 mpg is 3.6 gallons per 100 miles -- an $8 difference today.
crispy&cole
Here CVX is giving away a bunch of free car washs over at McKittrick, any truth to that?
Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson said that Ford and GM may need to write down $1.1 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, as the residual values of lease vehicles are likely to be substantial lower than originally expected.
"This is especially true for traditional trucks, which have been disproportionately hurt by the accelerating mix shift towards more fuel-efficient cars," Johnson said.
Skyrocketing oil prices are pushing the U.S. auto market to near-decade lows, with American drivers looking further into more fuel-efficient automobiles rather than trucks and sport utility vehicles. Subsequently, pickups and SUVs have been hit with some of the sharpest price declines in the used-vehicle market.
preparing for new market:
auto sales bottom callers!
this may be as exciting as calling home sales&px bottom's.
Economy going into gridlock due to exponentially increasing oil prices. Oil is going to get obliterated. $70.00 by the end of the year. $40.00 by the end of next year. Short accordingly!
What about the blunt nosed leopard lizard?
Then there is the downside. How many downstream jobs get lost when the "Big Three" go down? How many just in a recession? How many union jobs are going to be lost? What will happen to the pensions?
This is not a good thing for Americans. Yes, management are idiots an the Unions corrupt but think about it a little.
Would you like to live in a small city that had a significant number of people employed in some fashion from the crumbs of Detroit? Good-bye taxes, services, a future.
Bitterness, Glod, and Guns. A gutted social safety net. Recession. A broke county, state, and federal government. At least the military will not have a problem with recruiting.
"Yeah the next 60 days you dont want to breath too much of the air. Now with the oil companies going 24/7 365 the refineries are making the air soo much nicer...
crispy&cole"
Doesn't that stuff blow over to Tehachapi, home of Jas Jain? Maybe that explains it.
NoVa: don't forget the hundreds of billions that US is on the hook for through the PBGC when the Big Three fail.
India's Inflation at 13-year high; soars to 11.05%
I guess they don't report core inflation.
"Would you like to live in a small city that had a significant number of people employed in some fashion from the crumbs of Detroit?"
A lot of people have said no thanks based on the number of Michigan transplants living here in Houston.
I read early in the week that lots of full tankers are sitting at port in the middle east, and here is why:
Investment banks and hedge fund companies are buying up huge reserves of oil overseas, Cota said, and holding on to those reserves to drive the price of oil up.
The price of crude oil jumped 90 cents in May, according to Cota, a time when the price of oil is usually stable.
"No one is using it. No one is buying it. And no one is selling it," said Cota. "The price is artificially high. It should be half of what it is."
Fuel oil dealer tells of plight of small firms - Brattleboro Reformer
About a half dozen nations have raised rates already, so i don;t think the FED if they do raise, will have any NET effect. They are better off staying put.
BB
No hike is a de facto cut, the slide in the dollar over the last 3 days shows this. They HAVE to raise 25bp just to continue running in place and still have an accomodative policy.
"No one is using it. No one is buying it. And no one is selling it," said Cota. "The price is artificially high. It should be half of what it is."
Fraud on the way up, fraud on the way down.
Remember when we used to drive cars? Those were the days!
And houses... we used to have houses.
Then the central bankers came.
Re: Investment banks and hedge fund companies are buying up huge reserves of oil overseas, Cota said, and holding on to those reserves to drive the price of oil up.
Iran, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, increased the number of tankers idling in the Persian Gulf to at least 14, indicating it may be storing more crude, ship-tracking data show.
Iran has at least 14 very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, floating near Kharg Island, a loading facility. In April, there were 10, holding at least 20 million barrels of oil, people familiar with the situation said at the time. Shipbrokers also reported that Iran hired three more tankers, which have been near Kharg Island for at least two weeks.
Bitterness, Glod, and Guns. A gutted social safety net. Recession. A broke county, state, and federal government.
I think something people overlooks is you can't have a social safety net with a bankrupt government or a worthless currency.
If you have money and don't need to spend it now, you have to put it somewhere.
What's wrong with putting your money into oil to make sure it doesn't get dedimated by inflation?
Oh, I forgot. People need oil. People can use oil to live.
People can't use dollars or stocks to live.
If the stock market really had permanent strength (as opposed to short-term, liquidity-driven speculative strength), more money would be going into stocks and less into oil.
"Investment banks and hedge fund companies are buying up huge reserves of oil overseas, Cota said, and holding on to those reserves to drive the price of oil up."
When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance.
Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, is conducting all its crude trading in euro and yen, instead of the U.S. dollar, an Iranian official was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Iran has been reducing its exposure to the dollar as the United States has ratcheted up sanctions because of a dispute over Tehran's nuclear programm
Why wouldn't Iran try to drive the price of oil sky high?
The higher it is, the less chance they will get attacked by Israel.
The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia, at a five-month high, may climb for a third day as oil companies chase a dwindling supply of vessels for cargoes that are due to be collected in June. There are 25 double-hull very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, available for hire within the next 30 days, according to a report Friday from Paris-based Barry Rogliano Salles. A month ago there were 54 such ships available.
"Farms are underwater and there ain't no fish in the sea. Think they are screwed." (re unemployed Ford workers).
Well I suspect there is always work for male nurses who are strong enough to lift patients from bed, etc., etc. Medical care is probably one industry that will not experience any layoffs at all for a long time.
From Jan 10:
he benchmark hire rate for very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, sailing to Asia climbed at the fastest pace in at least 16 years in November and December, prompting oil companies to withhold cargoes to temper the gains. The key rental price has dropped every day since Dec. 19, the Baltic Exchange data showed.
It's dropping in the way that it came up,'' Nikos Varvaropoulos, an Athens-based broker at Optima Shipbrokers, said by phone today.Every charterer is trying to fix lower and lower and lower. It's a matter of mentality.''
Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. oil company, hired the tanker Astro Chorus at a rate of 175 Worldscale points, according to a report today from Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles. That's 0.6 percent higher than the London-based Baltic Exchange's benchmark rate of 173.91 points.
Astro Chorus, built in 2001, is fitted with two steel hulls to cut the risk of an oil spill. Supply of cheaper-to-hire single-hulled tankers is ``very good,'' said Varvaropoulos. The exchange's key assessment, which is for vessels up to 15 years old, takes into account both vessel types.
There are 115 modern two-hulled tankers available for hire within the next 30 days, according to the report from Barry Rogliano Salles. There were 111 yesterday.
CONJURE'S FUN FACTS
Exxon, roughly the size of Sweden, is importing Brazilian sugar cane methanol, even though there is a substantial tariff on it to satisfy Iowa corn growers. The tariff has backfired. Here's why.
Exxon receives a refund of the tariff because they use it as an 'ingredient' in their gasoline.
So, the next time you pull up at the pump, remember:
Exxon is screwing you not once, but twice.
Tankerworld.com
Leading shipbroker EA Gibson pointed out last Friday that so far this year VLCC earnings have averaged close to $110,000 per day, with current earnings at $175,000 per day; this is a whopping 140% increase compared with January-May 2007.
According to Tankerworld data, the start of this week saw average VLCC spot rates for all routes rise above WS 200 to hit WS 212 on Tuesday.
Average VLCC spot rates for all routes have risen more than 125 Worldscale points from WS 86 on April 8, the data shows.
While $140 is probably a little bit silly, and T. Boone Pickens' $150 target not likely to be supportable, I don't think we'll see $40 oil anytime soon; there are very real demand side factors driving prices upwards since 2000 (not just speculation, hoarding, and political instability).
So, the next time you pull up at the pump, remember:
Exxon is screwing you not once, but twice
So do I stop driving, or drive around to find another gas station that Exxon doesn't own?
Rich,
I agree with your posts.
Where do you stand now on TWM, SDS, SRS and the like?
So I guess this oil scheme IS the bailout plan...
About a half dozen nations have raised rates already, so i don;t think the FED if they do raise, will have any NET effect. They are better off staying put.
BB
Well...
If the difference in nominal interest rates here and overseas encourages further carry trades it could cause more capital outflows from the US and effectively create tighter credit conditions (by driving up interest rates on corporate bonds, mortgages, etc.).
Actually we still do, they just call them F-150s and such. It seems (anecdotally to me) that in an effort to make them more comfortable for people who bought them even though they didn't need trucks, the 1/2 tons really degraded in capabilities.
My anecdotes are one friend who hooked his father's late 90's F150 to a car trailer (with a cool REO pickup project on it) and the headlights basically pointed skyward. So he hooked his '79 F150 up and it was just fine.
Another friend loaded his 2005 Ram 1500 with mulch - shredded bark, for chrissakes - and just wallowed down the road it was so overloaded.
What is really sad is to go thru like Reese's catalog and find all the stiffeners/swaybars etc. needed for those SUV's to haul anything without killing everybody aboard.
My point is (yeah I actually have one) is that the vehicle purchases people have been making were, maybe more than ever in history, driven by vanity and group status rather than by any need. Because if they actually needed these things to do what they thought they could do they would have found them way inadequate.
Big houses, same thing.
And again, how are we going to unwind these positions?
As we anticipated, the VLCC market, at least in the Middle East Gulf, benefited from the first flow of July nominations. With more than 30 fixtures concluded this week from this zone, owners (especially of modern units) have managed to push rates further up.
News Tanker
Now, who is pushing the prices up?
Alec writes:
No hike is a de facto cut, the slide in the dollar over the last 3 days shows this. They HAVE to raise 25bp just to continue running in place and still have an accomodative policy.
Running to stand still.
ac writes:
Well...
If the difference in nominal interest rates here and overseas encourages further carry trades it could cause more capital outflows from the US and effectively create tighter credit conditions (by driving up interest rates on corporate bonds, mortgages, etc.).
Well Japan hasn't raise theirs yet and neither has China i believe.
And to raise rates now before the other decreases are felt would just prove to the masses that the fed is impotent and is led by the market(we know). This decrease in rates was to protect the equity market and the banks, nothing else.
this must be the good news that
"slick"
(back three threads) was talking about when he called the CR ers a bunch of gloomsters.
Oh, give me a break. Oil is $130 freaking dollars a barrel. I've got an oil tanker I filled up at $100/bbl, you've got one too, a worldwide recession looms.
What I'm doing is I'm seeing if I can dig up a leftover Saturn V inital boost stage so I can ensure that I get my tanker to port before yours.
It's so funny how everybody forgets everything they believed about markets when the markets give them an answer for the price of oil that they don't like.
Oil education:
Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and International Shipping
If you look at the price of oil, it's got to be linked to the fact that there's demand,'' Mathieu Philippe, a tanker broker in Dubai for Barry Rogliano, said by telephone. ''They've got to be holding back that demand'' and it will lead to increased tanker bookings either this week or next, he said.
Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's biggest oil company, booked the tanker Astro Carina for 92.5 Worldscale points, according to a report from London-based shipbroker Galbraith's Ltd. That's 0.3 percent above the London-based Baltic Exchange's benchmark assessment of 92.16 points for a voyage to Asia.
Astro Carina should normally cost more to hire than the benchmark because it's fitted with a double hull to cut the risk of an oil spill. The exchange's assessment is for ships up to 15 years old, of which 13 percent aren't fitted with full double hulls.
A 30 percent drop in the benchmark hire rate this month may spur owners to slow their ships down to cut fuel consumption, meaning that some of the carriers that are sailing back to the Middle East will not get there when oil companies are expecting them, Philippe said.
Port Tariffs
Worldscale points are a percentage of a nominal rate, or flat rate, for more than 320,000 specific routes. Flat rates for every voyage, quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, are revised annually by the Worldscale Association in London to reflect changing fuel costs, port tariffs and exchange rates.
Each flat rate assessment gives owners and oil companies a starting point for negotiating hire rates without having to calculate the value of each deal from scratch.
At 92.19 Worldscale points, owners of double-hulled VLCCs can earn about $55,777 a day on a 39-day round trip from Saudi Arabia to South Korea, based on a formula by R.S. Platou, an Oslo-based shipbroker, and marine fuel prices compiled by Bloomberg.
Everyone seems to be looking at super high oil prices and blaming speculators but it really, to me, seems to be a function of the weakness of the dollar.
If the dollar has not fallen by over 30%, oil would be below 100 and i believe inflation would still be contained(relatively). But of course, big financials/banks would had to have failed and that of course is a not going to happen.
Having said this, if it is proven that the high price of oil is inherently a supply-demand issue(peak oil?), then I guess the weakness of the dollar would mean less, but nonetheless oil would Still be cheaper than it is now.
Tanker industry enjoys huge profit
Tanker industry enjoys huge profits
Bookings for VLCCs sailing from the Middle East to Asia account for 47 per cent of global carrier demand, while the Middle East-Asia route remains the world's busiest for supertankers.
The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia last week stood at 192.03 worldscale points and is expected to rise this week. At that rate owners of double-hulled VLCCs, can earn $152,429 a day on a 39-day round trip from Saudi Arabia to South Korea, based on a formula by RS Platou, an Oslo-based shipbroker, and Bloomberg marine fuel prices.
"The future is very bright for regional shipping companies. Increasing freight rates mean high returns. We have seen more operators choosing to move to this region to cash in on the returns," said Mark Thomas, a shipping consultant based in Kuwait.
(peak oil?)
Peak stupidity, and maybe a little greed.
Merrill Sees Bank Stocks Nearing Their Bottom - CNBC
Merrill Sees Bank Stocks Nearing Their Bottom
U.S. large-cap regional banks' stocks now appear to be in "capitulation mode" and will likely trade below fair value in the near term as more dividend cuts and capital raises, high credit risk and an uncertain earnings outlook all weigh on their share prices, an analyst at Merrill Lynch said.
Capitulation? Who agrees?
Subprime Willy --
Consider for Iran, which has an interdiction mission in any future war with the US, how much easier and cheaper it is to rent these ships than to sink them.
Each one locked up at Karg Island can't be stolen, can't be sunk, can't be used to haul oil to the LOOP.
I would not blame everything on the PPT or the creature from Jekyll Island. There is very real military gamesmanship as well. Even if this is "just" to ratchet up the price of oil and let the zombie banks commodity trade themselves back to life on our part, the Iranians have their own goals.
Well Japan hasn't raise theirs yet and neither has China i believe.
And to raise rates now before the other decreases are felt would just prove to the masses that the fed is impotent and is led by the market(we know). This decrease in rates was to protect the equity market and the banks, nothing else.
The major difference here is that Japan is a production economy and the US is a consumption economy.
So in the short-term the weaker currency that accompanies lower rates and outflows would tend to benefit Japan (production). The opposite would tend to happen with a consumption based economy like the US.
Longer-term the weaker dollar might foster production growth locally if it doesn't ultimately lead to a global recession.
Hedge Fund Cheat On The Run; Faked Suicide
Federal Marshals and New York State Police investigators appear certain that disgraced hedge fund manager Sam Israel III faked a suicide plunge earlier this week and is now on the run after failing to report to federal prison to begin a 20 year sentence on Monday, official sources say.
Hedge Fund Cheat On The Run; Faked Suicide - ABC News
Ford should try a new slogan for our times..."Have you lived in a Ford lately?"
Property in U.S. cities to fall $1.46 trln in '08
| Reuters
Great GoogaMooga, can't you hear me talking to you.
The next sector to be hit would be tech, simply because of the number of analysts are bullish on it.
BB writes:
The next sector to be hit would be tech, simply because of the number of analysts are bullish on it.
I bought a boatload of QID yesterday afternoon simply because of the ridiculous, unjustified run-up in the Nasdaq. Now I just need to decide if this crash has legs into next week.
I am smiling today!
"The next sector to be hit would be tech, simply because of the number of analysts are bullish on it."
They are more bullish on energy then tech. Why? Because it's going up.
The next sector to be hit would be tech, simply because of the number of analysts are bullish on it.
Wonder how pissed Facebook must be, turning down $1.6B in cash... Should have learned from Cuban.
byzantine,
I think this game is all about capturing oil and constraining demand and thus control supply. This is being done by storing future value through the process of limiting supply and driving up cost for the demand. Renting ships as floating storage units is smart, because it takes away that ship from being used by someone else, this is a chess game and they are blocking oil supplies and using investment banks as pawns. This is also a bubble, because these pawns will become greedy and overpay at the wrong time and then hold a supply at the wrong time, as the game of musical chairs becomes a hot potato, tossed from one speculator to the next. This game of speculation obviously has the associated game of currency hedging in the form of driving down the dollar and conversely adding fuel to the inflation fire -- making this game of hedging, more a matter of price manipulation. If this is price manipulation, as I think it is, then we need to have a nice investigation and determine who is connected and what type of conspiracy and collusion we have. The problem of course, is that we have a pro oil agenda in place where the current leadership seems highly supportive and connected to being part of this collusion by a very deep connection to wall street and The New Fed, with new powers mentality:
Also, see Sherman Act: Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, is declared to be illegal. Every person who shall make any contract or engage in any combination or conspiracy hereby declared to be illegal shall be deemed guilty of a felony, and, on conviction thereof, shall be punished by fine not exceeding $10,000,000 if a corporation, or, if any other person, $350,000, or by imprisonment not exceeding three years, or by both said punishments, in the discretion of the court.
Everything is fun and games until someone gets hurt.
Gold: Don't count on $1,000
Gold: Don't count on $1,000 - Jun. 20, 2008
I used to think that gold won't go up too, but this article proves otherwise.
Buy gold now.
"Gold: Don't count on $1,000"
It may be that the financial system, by hook or crook(s), will stabilize itself.
But I'm not selling my gold until Bush is out of the White House. Until he's gone, there's potential for a huge "black swan" -- with the star and bars on the fuselage.
Bob Dobbs:
I actually think oil is hampering the precious metals prices, much better profits from oil than gold.
If oil comes down gold will benefit, however if the dollar strengthens or the euro weakens, then gold would tumble.
It strikes me as retarded -- that an owner of a Quikiemart or Any-Gas_Station-USA (AGSU) who is not just sitting on supply is dumb!
If the VLCC crowd can sit on oil, then why not sit on oil at your gas station and just hoard the supply and wait for the price to go up? This makes a 1100% sense, because essentially it's just cost averaging on your investment. I mean, why be ethical and feel you have to have a steady supply of gas at your station, i.e, just take a delivery of gas for all your pumps, then just shut off two or three and let them sit idle, until the price goes up -- immediate increase in profit margin. Sure you burn some cash to store it, but do the math like the guys with the VLCCs!
small gas station will have a 1,000 gallon tank. A medium, about 8-10,000 (500 fill-ups?). A big truck stop could have a 500,000 gallon tank. The bigger question is how many tanks do they have. Older stations have 3 tanks (reg, plus, super). Newer stations will have 4 (diesel). And you have some like the truck stop in New Mexico that has two 1,000,000 tanks sitting on the hillside. In addition, newer the station, the smaller will be the tank. EPA rules start adding double liners and catch basins. There is only so much property space, so they will install smaller tanks to fit.
The tanker trailer holds around 10,000 gallons. This lets them fill up 3 to 4 gas stations on a run.
Also see: I take it from your yelling that you don't like my tofu dogs. ( Apu Nahasapeemapetilan from Simpson's)
Inspector: Apu Nahasapeemapetilan, you have disgraced the Kwik-E-Mart Corporation.
Apu: But, sir, I was only following standard procedure.
Inspector: Ah, true. But it's also standard procedure to blame any problems on a scapegoat or sacrificial lamb.
Apu: Uh huh, and if I can obtain for you these animals?
Speedboat Willy:
It's not a matter of ethics, gas hoarding is illegal in many states.
Rent on a tanker truck?
Fuel Tank Sales and Leasing
We sell, lease, and lease to own the following fuel tank sizes.
size (gallons)\tpurchase price\tlease / month\t2-year lease to own / month
300\t$1700\t$34\t$78
500 (48x66")\t$2,200\t$42\t$100
1,000\t$2,700\t$52\t$170
2,000\t$3,700\t$71\t$170
5,000\t$6,200\t$118\t$285
10,000\t$14,000\t$268\t$642
404 Not Found
Oh come on, if the VLCCs can hoard, why can't a Kwik-E-Mart ??
Re: "We are just hoping to get the word out to the public just how dangerous it is to store gasoline," said Jennifer L. Mieth of the state Fire Marshal's Office.
It is not only dangerous - it is illegal. State law, surprisingly to many, prohibits the storage of more than a quart of gasoline in any part of a building used for human habitation, including attached garages.
This means that pretty much everyone with a snowblower or lawn mower in an attached garage, along with the attendant gasoline containers, is in violation of the law.
Rest assured, however, that investigators of the state Fire Marshal's Office do not plan on conducting garage surveillance operations any time soon, said Mieth.
The regulations, she said, have been in place for a "very long time" - long before attached garages became prevalent.
Im guessing that oil prices are the bailout of the banks on a global scale-- make everyone pay and not look like a bailout. What the investment banks and hedge funds have started doing with the seed money from the fed is speculating in the commodities market to recapitalize their books to compensate for the real estate mortgage write downs and prevent bankruptcy. Since the banks have billions of dollars (from the fed) to invest, they invest in oil and drive up prices drastically and then cash out to recapitalize themselves making the entire world pay for their bad bets in the mortgage meltdown. Im guessing the banks will get screwed again and get left holding their expensive oil contracts. Opinions on this theory?
Anon,
I'm with yah baby! I think that full disclosure of Level 3 or Level 8 assets would help reveal this type of activity, but -- would speculation in commodities be crooked? As I posted, if there is a collusion-like anti-trust-like Sherman Act violation, hmmmm, so what? We have The Worst Congress & Senate in US history, so will they of DOJ, FBI, CIA, FTC do anything....no!
I think if this theory were to be un-covered and made public by disclosure of Level 3+ we could at least consider that people would boycott certain banks and oil companies, but even then, these people are like snakes that crawl like fog on to the next evil and destructive illegal activity....so what yah gonna do. Maybe yah join um and slap each other on the back and give high 5's for starving people?
Add the worst Supreme Court in recent memory, and no one's has even been talking about the cases that matter. In the last several years, the Supreme Court has watered down the reach of Sherman removing per se anti-competitive rules. Additionally, the Court has increased the threshold requirement for the feds to prove fraud, collusion, etc. You almost have to have a smoking gun memo now.
I think a lot of this oil is sour heavy crude from Iran, which isn't easy to market. Not all refineries can take all grades of crude. Saudi has light sweet crude which is cheap and easy to refine. Valero can refine this stuff, because they upgraded their refineries to do it by stuffing $1000 bills into the refineries. But they can't make any money on it now because the crack spread is so low, i.e. they can't price their gasoline so they make any money after they buy the crude. I beleve only one or two refineries can take the oil from the Alberta tar sands, and convert it to gasoline. I wouldn't be so quick to call those tankers a restraint of trade. Maybe nobody wants that grade of crude right now. And don't forget our Congressmen want to sue OPEC for price fixing too.
Hey anyone looking at the DOW right now? Where is the PPT?
Im guessing the banks will get screwed again and get left holding their expensive oil contracts. Opinions on this theory?
I'm guessing Goldman and Morgan will be smart enough to migrate to short positions before the bottom falls out. In fact, they may actually instigate the sell off when they have their positions ready. Their balance sheets will be improved, and they will be ready for any Fed assisted take-overs of their failing peers.
Well I suspect there is always work for male nurses who are strong enough to lift patients from bed, etc., etc. Medical care is probably one industry that will not experience any layoffs at all for a long time.
Chris | 06.20.08 - 12:54 pm
they are bringing in lots of nurses from India, Nigeria, The Phillipines, etc. And you can only lift twinkie-based life forms for so many years before your back goes out.
Cars and trucks...
I really want a new lightweight pick up truck. Everything at Toyota is a monster. I'm hoping the current environment puts pressure on automakers to return to the days of small fuel efficient trucks again. With the option of a 7' bed.
"A broke county, state, and federal government."
Well, I know King George's good buddy Grover Norquist is mighty happy at this turn of events. He's the guy who said he'd like to reduce the federal gubbermint small enough so he could drown it in the bathtub.
Of course, what Grover didn't elaborate on is how he'd also be happy to drown all those poor old farts whose social security payments make all the difference in the world. But Grover subscribes to the GOP philosophy that kicking a man when he's down is the best way to get a shoe shine, so he's OK with that.
Chris,
I too was amazed to see how lowly valued Ford and GM have become. A few months ago the WSJ had an article showing the market capitalization of the 30 companies of the Dow DJIA.
GM was dead last, and by a wide margin. It doesn't even belong in the Dow if market-cap is the main criterion.
The Big Three are no longer to big to fail.
The Big Three are no longer to big to fail.
Except their pension benefits are guaranteed by the feds.
You're right, BigR. The unions knew that the Big Three and other smokestack industries wouldn't be able to honor their unfunded pension commitments, so the PBGC was founded. Most Americans never even knew about it at the time, but Uncle Sam is obligated to kick in big-time cash when the Detroit Three go under.
An emerging question: Is the U.S. Government Too Big to Fail?
BigR wrote:
"NoVa: don't forget the hundreds of billions that US is on the hook for through the PBGC when the Big Three fail."
BigR, would you like to explain how you came up with the "hundreds of billions" figure? That doesn't make any sense.
@Leftys Liquors: I think a lot of this oil is sour heavy crude from Iran, which isn't easy to market. Not all refineries can take all grades of crude. Saudi has light sweet crude which is cheap and easy to refine...I wouldn't be so quick to call those tankers a restraint of trade. Maybe nobody wants that grade of crude right now.
NYTimes piece today on Why Is Oil So High? supports Lefty's take:
...no two countries indeed, no two fields produce the same kinds of crude oil, and refineries typically specialize in specific grades. As the lighter, more easily processed oil runs low, the world is slowly relying more on gooier, sulfur-rich varieties. That is straining the ability of refineries to produce more gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
In the face of torrid demand, Iran has struggled for over a month to sell about 25 million barrels despite the steepest price discounts on record.
The oil, stored in tankers in the Persian Gulf, is the sulfur-heavy variety. According to news reports and industry estimates, Iran has offered to cut its price by as much as $13 a barrel but still has not found buyers.
Why Is Oil So High? Pick a View - NY Times
I am hopeful some good can come of this mess. Maybe, now, America can shake it's death grasp on these rediculous sized pick ups and SUVs, and start to make fuel efficient vehicles. That will help us shake our dependence on that foreign black goo.