Some people that work in the financial sector had been placed on temporary leave last year and are now getting laid off. Needless to say the job prospects are not good without high level IT experience of gov't jobs that pay much less. I think there are more of these phantom unemployed and will begin to materialize and spook the economy.
I was listening to a Bloomberg podcast with Dean Maki, managing director at Barclays Capital Inc., and he believes unemployment has peaked and will head down into next summer. I just mention this because there's a notion being touted now that it's contrarinn to be bullish on the economy, while the real contrarian is non-complacent.
Unemployment is always interesting, but I suspect the real issue is underemployment.
At the center of that are the real estate industry employees, many (most?) of whom do not draw a paycheck and rely on commissions. A lot of anecdotal evidence suggests that the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, construction contractors etc. are hurting very badly--even as they continue to report themselves as being "employed". And real estate can't be the only industry where that's happening.
Wow this might help me in the coming months. It's good to know that the economy is still doing well. What?
I need more coffee and of to work.
jo6pac
What about gold?
I spoke to a friend last night and asked if her prospective son-in-law still had his job - as the company he works for recently announced massive layoffs. She said he did, but if he lost it he also has experience in selling real estate. And if that doesn't work, he used to make some money buying old cars, fixing them up and selling them on ebay. Hopefully daughter can hang onto her day job...
Sarcasm aside, the stampede to Treasuries into the end of the quarter, and the need to get some losers of the books, is looking like a pretty big factor in the waning hours of Q2. We could see some whippy stuff next week, maybe after July 4, with Q2, jobs data and a holiday out of the way.
A bit more on Steve and Barry's, the near-bankrupt purveyors of "fine fashion" (read: sloganed tee shirts) whom mall developers are paying to fill empty spaces. Seems they haven't ever paid their contractors' bills either:
Do people just not... ask questions any more? Does the entire business world exist on hype?
I was in a Steve and Barry's the other day, saw all the T-shirts sitting in piles and I thought, "In five years, these shirts will be worn by seven-year-olds in African refugee camps."
But on the bright side ..."unlikely to hit $200 and should ease towards the end of the year, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said in an interview on Thursday."
So after billions for the rich, a few pennies for the underclass folks.
Lord you underclass folks are so ungrateful. You could be eating twigs and berries, using a campfire for heat, catching your own food, and stinking to high heaven. Or chained to an oar until you dropped dead, or tossed to wild beasts for everyone's general amusement, like in the good old days.
Next you'll want 6000 sq ft houses and to drive luxury vehicles with hand-made weekend bags in the trunk.
Ok, help, I need to stop giggling. What does this mean exactly: "Analyst William Tanona also added Citigroup to Goldman's 'Americas conviction sell' list"? I mean, between those waving tar and pitchforks surrounding the Tan Castle and the state of the DOJ, I can't quite decide who's conviction is being sold to whom? Is this a possible near-future bubble market?
Latest from OPEC:
Mr Khelil said on France 24 television: "I predict probably prices of 150 to 170 dollars this summer. It (the market) will probably fall a bit towards the end of the year."
He said he did not expect prices to hit 200 dollars a barrel, barring a major market crisis such as a halt in production in Iran. In that case, he added, prices could possibly surge to "200, 300, 400 dollars." Fuel could hit £1.47 a litre after Opec oil price warning - Telegraph
Nothing, sandystructures. That's what is so frightening. I gritted my teeth quite a while ago, said to myself "This is crazy, it's not sustainable. I'm bailing and I'll look again when the Dow goes back to 11750." Well ...
hello all I have been lurking here for a few months trying to learn. I am definitely in synch with most people's thoughts here on the absurdity of the mess we are in. I work in the corp accctg dept of a Fortune 500 company and so many of my peers are just sheeple and apparently almost blind to the reality of the mess as I see it. Yesterday on the way home I was listening to my pod and the song Brain Damage from Pink Floyd was on and listening to the lyrics made me think.
"The lunatic is in the hall
the lunatics are in the hall
the paper holds their folded faces to the floor
and every day the paper boy brings more "
So true just replace paper with Bubble tv.
"And if the cloud bursts, thunder in your ear
you shout and no one seems to hear
and if the band you're in starts playing different tunes
I'll see you on the dark side of the moon "
Why doesn't everyone else see how our country is being manipulated?
Don't worry believerjeff. life is seldom as bad, or as good, as you think it is. most people are sheeple, and it's a blessing and a curse to be more on the ball. there's something to be said for being not too bright, isn't there? you're sheltered from the truth mostly.
So let the sheeple safely graze. and once in a while a wolf from here will pick one off
I agree with ipodius. Having watched debt loads increase for 40 years, the final crash will be something of an anticlimax. Just remember to keep your head, and not panic. Once you panic you're just another sheeple.
I was a bit confused about the initial claims Methodology.
I was confused when I read the following passage of the articule:
First, weekly claims typically get a short term bounce with an unemployment benefit extension as some workers refile for claims. This will probably add 50K per week to claims for several weeks (pushing claims solidly above 400K).
My question is: Can workers refile for initial claims ? I though that workers that refile would go straight to continuing claims statistics and not be recounted on initials again.
cr
shouldn't charts showing absolute numbers be normalized for the increase in population? The (past two recession) numbers do show that recessions begin with progressively more unemployed.
If we are not in a recession why would the goverment be sending people checks and extending unemployment benefits? Does anyone know if the government has even extended unemployment benefits OUTSIDE of a recession?
Some people that work in the financial sector had been placed on temporary leave last year and are now getting laid off. Needless to say the job prospects are not good without high level IT experience of gov't jobs that pay much less. I think there are more of these phantom unemployed and will begin to materialize and spook the economy.
I was listening to a Bloomberg podcast with Dean Maki, managing director at Barclays Capital Inc., and he believes unemployment has peaked and will head down into next summer. I just mention this because there's a notion being touted now that it's contrarinn to be bullish on the economy, while the real contrarian is non-complacent.
Argh...more dastardly graphs
Anonymouse:
What's your take on the gold chart?
What's your forecast now?
Thanks.
I think gold is in a holding pattern until the end of the summer as competing deflation and inflationary signals pull against each other
WB downgrades goldman
Goldman downgrades citi
GM in chapter 11 - Told you so...
Unemployment is always interesting, but I suspect the real issue is underemployment.
At the center of that are the real estate industry employees, many (most?) of whom do not draw a paycheck and rely on commissions. A lot of anecdotal evidence suggests that the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, construction contractors etc. are hurting very badly--even as they continue to report themselves as being "employed". And real estate can't be the only industry where that's happening.
BB,
I'm still with my forecast from Monday:
HaloScan.com - Comments
Wow this might help me in the coming months. It's good to know that the economy is still doing well. What?
I need more coffee and of to work.
jo6pac
What about gold?
warp 9 writes:
I think gold is in a holding pattern until the end of the summer
Well i think the range for gold may have shifted a bit.
Oil is acting real schizo now.
Trichet, we are counting on you to do your job!
Anonymouse:
Many thanks. I look to you to provide a range
Is claims a component of the crystal-ball writeB ?
Futures dropping like a rock.
where's bizzarro world to point the way...
Kerkorian to bid for chrysler and GM , conccurrently with F
stranely sounds so familiar with that assisted sucicide dude. apt
Lots of rumors of Chrysler going down too... who will go first GM or Chrysler?
whoever of the three that kirk is flirting with, is closer to death.
BSC laying off 2,700 - boat sales at a 40 yr low. Just 4 more days and this is all over..
GWB 'Would F***** revise the #'s, GD it"
BSC laying off 2,700 - boat sales at a 40 yr low. Just 4 more days and this is all over.
Why 4 days? And what "this" is all over?
"It now appears like that Congress will extend unemployment insurance benefits"
Short Bucky!
LOL.
The 2nd half recovery begins.
I spoke to a friend last night and asked if her prospective son-in-law still had his job - as the company he works for recently announced massive layoffs. She said he did, but if he lost it he also has experience in selling real estate. And if that doesn't work, he used to make some money buying old cars, fixing them up and selling them on ebay. Hopefully daughter can hang onto her day job...
LOL.
The 2nd half recovery begins.
Ahh! I'm slow this morning...Filled up the tank with caffeine this morning but apparently it hasn't made it to the sarcasm detector yet. Good one!
11697 ....will this levee hold?
What a shitstorm. 2H looks strong. Ben did a nice job on Oil and the dollah yesterday...
Sarcasm aside, the stampede to Treasuries into the end of the quarter, and the need to get some losers of the books, is looking like a pretty big factor in the waning hours of Q2. We could see some whippy stuff next week, maybe after July 4, with Q2, jobs data and a holiday out of the way.
Where are the getting the money to pay for this?
Is congress cutting fat somewhere else or are we just going to bankrupt the US government and render the dollar worthless?
TradingStats writes:
11697 ....will this levee hold?
You finally called it!
Yay!
just a small mile marker of interest on a super long highway
Where are the getting the money to pay for this?
From you personally ac. Didn't you get the memo?
Do you think oil will hit $150 today?
Gold $950?
"Is congress cutting fat somewhere else or are we just going to bankrupt the US government and render the dollar worthless?"
Short Bucky!
focus shift's back to s&p...1270?
A bit more on Steve and Barry's, the near-bankrupt purveyors of "fine fashion" (read: sloganed tee shirts) whom mall developers are paying to fill empty spaces. Seems they haven't ever paid their contractors' bills either:
Steve & Barry's Hits Trouble - WSJ.com
Do people just not... ask questions any more? Does the entire business world exist on hype?
I was in a Steve and Barry's the other day, saw all the T-shirts sitting in piles and I thought, "In five years, these shirts will be worn by seven-year-olds in African refugee camps."
Canadian watching with popcorn writes:
Do you think oil will hit $150 today?
Gold $950?
No and no.
"Do you think oil will hit $150 today?"
August right after the hurricane in the gulf.
No and no.
Darn no weiners with my KD tonight.
What can be more incriminating than this headline:-
Goldman downgrades fellow banks
Goldman Sachs downgrades brokerage firms - Jun. 26, 2008
From you personally ac. Didn't you get the memo?
Oh, I'm arranging to be laid off for 39 weeks.
I'm just going to day trade for the first 38 then I'll start looking for another job.
OPEC Chief Sees $150-170 Oil in Coming Months
OPEC Chief Sees $150-170 Oil in Coming Months - CNBC
But on the bright side ..."unlikely to hit $200 and should ease towards the end of the year, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said in an interview on Thursday."
yea for me, a few more weeks of semi starvation as opposed to real starvation.
So after billions for the rich, a few pennies for the underclass folks.
i think they're trying mr dryfly's 'kill demand' theory
Goldman downgrades fellow banks
Crab mentality at its best!
So after billions for the rich, a few pennies for the underclass folks.
Lord you underclass folks are so ungrateful. You could be eating twigs and berries, using a campfire for heat, catching your own food, and stinking to high heaven. Or chained to an oar until you dropped dead, or tossed to wild beasts for everyone's general amusement, like in the good old days.
Next you'll want 6000 sq ft houses and to drive luxury vehicles with hand-made weekend bags in the trunk.
IMB halted on my screen. Anyone hear anything?
You could be eating twigs and berries, using a campfire for heat, catching your own food, and stinking to high heaven.
Actually, that kind of sounds like fun.
GM now at March 1955 levels. Nice return on your money.
Fond memories of cabin living in Alaska...
Ok, help, I need to stop giggling. What does this mean exactly: "Analyst William Tanona also added Citigroup to Goldman's 'Americas conviction sell' list"? I mean, between those waving tar and pitchforks surrounding the Tan Castle and the state of the DOJ, I can't quite decide who's conviction is being sold to whom? Is this a possible near-future bubble market?
Well, I reached my re-entry point for stocks. What I didn't think about was how frightening that would seem.
Don't do it Sue! Don't do it! It's a trap!!!
(Done in best Admiral Ackbar voice.)
YouTube - Admiral Ackbar's "It's a trap!" scene
Sue writes:
Well, I reached my re-entry point for stocks. What I didn't think about was how frightening that would seem.
I'd think about moving that goalpost.
sue, what has changed that makes you inteerested in stocks?
Don't do it Sue! Don't do it! It's a trap!!!
How could they be scamming us if they didn't... know... we... were... buying?
Sorry couldn't resist... hope someone else has left a funnier response.
Sue writes:
Well, I reached my re-entry point for stocks.
You gotta buy sue or i can't sell.
Maybe Bush can start training the unemployed of all stripes for a build up the nuclear power industry ;^)
Latest from OPEC:
Mr Khelil said on France 24 television: "I predict probably prices of 150 to 170 dollars this summer. It (the market) will probably fall a bit towards the end of the year."
He said he did not expect prices to hit 200 dollars a barrel, barring a major market crisis such as a halt in production in Iran. In that case, he added, prices could possibly surge to "200, 300, 400 dollars."
Fuel could hit £1.47 a litre after Opec oil price warning - Telegraph
Nothing, sandystructures. That's what is so frightening. I gritted my teeth quite a while ago, said to myself "This is crazy, it's not sustainable. I'm bailing and I'll look again when the Dow goes back to 11750." Well ...
hello all I have been lurking here for a few months trying to learn. I am definitely in synch with most people's thoughts here on the absurdity of the mess we are in. I work in the corp accctg dept of a Fortune 500 company and so many of my peers are just sheeple and apparently almost blind to the reality of the mess as I see it. Yesterday on the way home I was listening to my pod and the song Brain Damage from Pink Floyd was on and listening to the lyrics made me think.
"The lunatic is in the hall
the lunatics are in the hall
the paper holds their folded faces to the floor
and every day the paper boy brings more "
So true just replace paper with Bubble tv.
"And if the cloud bursts, thunder in your ear
you shout and no one seems to hear
and if the band you're in starts playing different tunes
I'll see you on the dark side of the moon "
Why doesn't everyone else see how our country is being manipulated?
I don't know - are we the crazies?
Can this ponzi scheme really go on forever?
I want some Admiral Ackbar cereal like on Robot Chicken.
You have to expect the broad market to fluctuate. This is no long term entry point. Those two statements are not mutually exclusive.
I want some Admiral Ackbar cereal like on Robot Chicken.
Now with brine shrimp!
YouTube -
I don't know - are we the crazies?
Don't worry believerjeff. life is seldom as bad, or as good, as you think it is. most people are sheeple, and it's a blessing and a curse to be more on the ball. there's something to be said for being not too bright, isn't there? you're sheltered from the truth mostly.
So let the sheeple safely graze. and once in a while a wolf from here will pick one off
believerJeff,
I agree with ipodius. Having watched debt loads increase for 40 years, the final crash will be something of an anticlimax. Just remember to keep your head, and not panic. Once you panic you're just another sheeple.
Sue,
That might a good reentry point... that is when the Dow gets back up there from its next low.
Actually, that kind of sounds like fun.
now that you mention it, it sounds like last weekend
I was a bit confused about the initial claims Methodology.
I was confused when I read the following passage of the articule:
First, weekly claims typically get a short term bounce with an unemployment benefit extension as some workers refile for claims. This will probably add 50K per week to claims for several weeks (pushing claims solidly above 400K).
My question is: Can workers refile for initial claims ? I though that workers that refile would go straight to continuing claims statistics and not be recounted on initials again.
Sue, consider reentering the market after the Dow sinks below 2500 here in a few years.
cr
shouldn't charts showing absolute numbers be normalized for the increase in population? The (past two recession) numbers do show that recessions begin with progressively more unemployed.
Sonic Seuss: 4 days to quarter end.
to "200, 300, 400 dollars."
Yeah I'd like to see the US election taking place in an environment of $400 oil. Gas price, I couldn't guess.
If we are not in a recession why would the goverment be sending people checks and extending unemployment benefits? Does anyone know if the government has even extended unemployment benefits OUTSIDE of a recession?