I believe the financial markets are at a point equivalent to the moment in the movie, Dr. Strangelove, when Major Kong [Slim Pickens] leaves the cockpit and starts heading back to the bomb bay.
Argento: Viable markets have a buyer and a seller... they agree on a price somewhere. This is how markets 'clear'. In many, if not most market crashes, there is a period where something (stocks, bonds, homes, MBS) are offered for sale... but there are no buyers, period.
The 1987 Dow crash opened that way.. the 1929 crash also had periods of 'offered only', and no buyers.
Eventually, buyers return. But by then the damage has been done.
t. Helens catastrophically erupted on May 18, 1980. After many months of lead-up activity, including the growth of a huge bulge on the north part of the mountain, a moderate earthquake caused the entire north flank of the mountain to slide away in the largest landslide in recorded history.[29] The newly-exposed hot and pressurized rock in the volcano responded by producing the largest historic volcanic eruption in the 48 contiguous U.S. states.[29] (See the Geology section for more detail.)
During the lead-up to the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, 83-year-old Harry R. Truman, who had lived near the mountain for 54 years, became famous when he decided not to evacuate before the impending eruption, despite repeated pleas by local authorities. His body was never found after the eruption. Fifty-seven people were killed or never found. Had the eruption occurred one day later, when loggers would have been at work, rather than on a Sunday, the death toll would almost certainly have been much higher.[6]
What? Like everyone thought this crappy paper was all over and done with? This is not going to clear until there are a couple more sacrificial victims. I wonder who they will be....
Remember when you pooh poohed my idea of paying mils for mortgage debt?
I think the time has come when it has arrived!!! (I love mangling english!)
Mils for mortgages!
How much for that million dollar mortgage? Six thousand!
Sold!
The houses that supported the unsupportable no longer have anything near a realistic value, so the paper now has to assume values corresponding with the remaining value.
Near nothing-
BTW 10 new lows in ABX today- mainly AAA and AA tranches.
Yeh, but JG, won't it look funny after a while, if someone were to plot the ratios of L3/(L1+2+L3)...eventually it might wake someone up to a problem that a growing share of value is illusory.
Get used to the words "bid fail", "offer only", "fail to deliver", "retracted offer/auction due to low/no bid". Also worry when sentiment and one day plunge gets this dark...In the three years from October 1929 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 90 per cent, but it enjoyed five rallies of between 16 and 48 per cent.
The dow is just heading down to where is should be given forward earnings and the economic climate in the last two quarters. Anyone that thought the dow belonged much above 11000 was smoking crack. But this is good. It's about time Goldilocks was eaten by the bears after she soiled their beds and ate their food.
Get prepared for ugly phase 2 tonight. New Zealand opens down 1.35% in the first half hour. Any guesses on Shanghai? I'll start the bidding at -4% in the first half hour, closing at -7%.
Does anybody else find it, well, potentially ominous or at least odd, that many people may continue to be near-completely unaware of this because of the gun ruling? (This, based on a quick dash through MSM main pages.) Though, I guess a lot of desperate people will find that latter useful in the coming months... Yoikes. Which right should I invoke when ruining my liver tonight? I think I'll drink hardest over the whole unaware part of the equation which will might end up with me being unaware, but I think I can live with that for a bit.
scav - Id lay off the sauce tonight. You have to wake up early for the open. Friday night, is another story. I plan on being drowned in C2H6O by the market close.
Does anybody else find it, well, potentially ominous or at least odd, that many people may continue to be near-completely unaware of this because of the gun ruling?
350 visitors on a Thurs. evening - not everyone is unaware.
Does anybody else find it, well, potentially ominous or at least odd, that many people may continue to be near-completely unaware of this because of the gun ruling?
Never owned a gun in my life, but after reading some of the comments, I'm ready to get a gun to complement my Y2K food storage.
ANyone notice IMB's precarious position today. There's nothing left on the bone to nibble on... $0.80/sh. Probably move to the pinks this week. Quick fall from grace. FDIC will be sweeping up the debris soon.
[WASHINGTON (AP) -- The possible collapse of big mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp Inc. poses significant financial risks to its borrowers and depositors, and regulators may not be ready to intervene to protect them, Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said Thursday. A wave of IndyMac depositors withdrawing their funds could leave IndyMac "in a disastrous financial situation," Schumer said]
That gun ruling only put a stake in the ground that existed in practice anyhow...that you can't outlaw everyone from owning a gun. It left intact restrictions on that ownership. It was also 5-4, which means the only thing that could possibly make me think of voting for O is a supreme court vacancy...which I would be very amused to see go to HRC. So amused, in fact, that it tempts me over to the O camp.
But this bull-death rattle? This is what people like me have been waiting for. Panic. Which always smells like opportunity.
I still find it amazing that even though the fundamentals are broken, even though there are no bids, even though people are claiming that it's never been this bad, that there is still no pushing of the panic button.
Even as little as twenty years ago, the fact that the stilts holding up the house are ridden with termites would have been the lead story on the nightly news, night after night after night. Our economy is broken, and unless you have a 21st century job, you are in for a world of hurt in the next few years if you live in the US.
Internet.
Biotechnology.
Robotics.
Astrobiology.
Nanotechnology.
Alternative energy.
Basically, all of those shiny upgrades in SimCity.
People with children: you need to start treating scientists and technology workers like role models when you're around your children, if you want them to have any shot at a good life at all. Firefighter, doctor, and astronaut don't cut it anymore.
Aw, Geoff, folks who are that analytical -- calculating ratios of L3 vs. L1-L3 and looking at changes in such -- would never buy the 'all is well' story in the first place.
I presume that fear will soon overtake analysis, and that no matter what the I-banks try, folks will not believe them.
one thumb, one thumb, drumming on a drum dum ditty, dum ditty, dum dum dum
hand in hand more monkeys come
monkeys hum and monkeys drum
hum drum, hum drum, hum drum hum...
rings on fingers, rings on thumbs
drum drum, drum drum, drum drum drum
"People with children: you need to start treating scientists and technology workers like role models when you're around your children, if you want them to have any shot at a good life at all. Firefighter, doctor, and astronaut don't cut it anymore."
Dean Kamen has been beating that drum for years with his self-funded high-school robotics competitions. He thinks the best scientists/inventors deserve the status, at least, of a good football player.
But doctor, teacher, cop are always going to cut it. What we could use less of, and will need less of, are advertising/PR people, marketing directors, real estate salesmen, lawyers -- all the gatekeeping "middlemen" who take a cut of the wealth without contributing much of meaning.
Mark,
Teaching is still a 21Century job, not to be confused with Century 21. And remember, unpaid summers off give you lots of time to study the market and enjoy Calculated Risk.
homie, continuing from the last thread, Dick Cheney, but he will soon be checking out!
Only question now: Tango or drink?
Indymac is dead this weekend, Friday night they turn out the lights;-}
Or so I believe.
I think that BAC will buy CFC and offload the liabilities straight to the Fed and say- if you don't like it we will bk and blow it up anyway. How would like your banking system? Fried or baked?
The dollar is wobbling, and our idiots have taken over the village.
Better figure out fast that you have to do something or it will be left upto the 100 day miracle team.
Call me Rex Tugwell.
Lol.
Or not. I would prefer not to be there if we have to repeat the last fiasco.
Goldman Sachs said Fifth Third and Regions were most at risk of both a dividend
cut and capital raising. Comerica, SunTrust and Bank of America had offsetting
factors that might allow them to just cut their dividend and avoid capital
raising, the firm said. A Bank of America spokesman declined to comment. Representatives of the other
four banks werent immediately available to comment. On Tuesday, Bank of America
Chief Executive Ken Lewis told analysts that, under what the bank views as the
most likely scenario, in which the U.S. avoids a severe recession, Bank of
America wont have to cut its dividend or raise capital.
I must admit, this one surprises me. The company and its management have been through multiple credit cycles. Plus, as a thrift, they have always had access to the Fed's Bag of Holding.
But is it really wise for a U.S. Senator to recommend in public that we all start a run on the bank?
Anybody happen to know if the senior Senator from New York has any, you know, hedge fund investments? Just curious.
Bob Dobbs writes:
"Awe shit, 420 visitors online. Last time this happened, there was a huge intra day reversal and a 2 month bear market rally."
I remember that day. I would normally bet it is nearly impossible for that to happen again; but the train wreck has moved so slowly that I would not be surprised if there is a comeback.
Me, I covered my shorts the Monday of the BSC bailout. Reshorted in early April and have been wating patiently until this time. I will stay short this time around!
Ok now we are getting somewhere. I have no idea what has been propping up the market, but its been clear to anyone with eyes who doesn't work as a ratings analyst that the economy was headed for a very bad time.
With all the cheap credit, people threw out the concept of risk. Risk is back baby!!! And soon, 12% mortgages will return as well.
Even as little as twenty years ago, the fact that the stilts holding up the house are ridden with termites would have been the lead story on the nightly news, night after night after night. Our economy is broken, and unless you have a 21st century job, you are in for a world of hurt in the next few years if you live in the US.
Internet.
Biotechnology.
Robotics.
Astrobiology.
Nanotechnology.
Alternative energy.
Basically, all of those shiny upgrades in SimCity.
People with children: you need to start treating scientists and technology workers like role models when you're around your children, if you want them to have any shot at a good life at all. Firefighter, doctor, and astronaut don't cut it anymore.
Mark | Homepage | 06.26.08 - 6:59 pm | #
Just in case you might want to make sure they can weld too...
If we really are at a reset point - even 'real' scientists will go begging. We won't have the wealth to support their 'research'. The smart ones will have to leave to where the new money is. The Persian Gulf, Asia, Russia or the EU. Hell maybe even Brazil.
Without funding - its pretty hard to do science. BTW my roommate in college was a Turkish PhD candidate - he never went home - they couldn't fund his work. That was over 25 years ago. Times change.
The folks who will do well in the US - assuming a real reset - will be the NEXT tier down... practical hands on keep shit running engineers & techs & skilled blue collar maintenance types.
I had friends who were in Iraq right after the fall & were charged with keeping a power plant running - they said NONE OF THEM were prepared for what they had to do - it was all bailing wire & duck tape & spot weld fixes. Most of it they learned from Iraqi engineers & techs who had been doing similar for decades.
Again this is predicated on a real old fashioned to the ground reset. I'm not convinced we'll get there. I wouldn't say it could never happen though.
Scotty:
captain, the matter-antimater engines cant take much more o this.
Kirk: (played by Ben B.)
Scotty...do...the...best..you...can..
Scotty (played by Poole)
Captain, she's gonna blow
McCoy (Shela B)
Jim, I'm a doctor not an engineer, but if we don't do something soon this mans gonnna die.
Spok (played by Timothy Geithner)
Captain it would seem that the logical thing do is release more dilithium crystals (liquidity) into the engines (financial system) whether the engines can handle the load (inflation) or not if we don't break loose from the gravitational field of this black hole (debt) it won't matter if the engine blow or not.
I don't know about anyone else here, but I have that tingle I got right before BSC imploded. I'm feeling that someone else is about to go down, and that's what is going on in that area.
As for the dow, the Fed doesn't care about the market. It cares about the banks. The dow is going to where it should have been. So don't expect any comments or action for those boys. But do expect action if a major bank goes down. I do have a feeling that another IB failure would also be ignored now, should that happen. Just a hunch. The two that are candidates aren't too big to fail.
practical hands on keep shit running engineers & techs & skilled blue collar maintenance types
My friend's father is a welder; he's never short on work. The only problem is that our society looks down on these tradesmen, much in the way it does renters.
But doctor, teacher, cop are always going to cut it. What we could use less of, and will need less of, are advertising/PR people, marketing directors, real estate salesmen, lawyers -- all the gatekeeping "middlemen" who take a cut of the wealth without contributing much of meaning.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 06.26.08 - 7:02 pm | #
I'm going to be a bit of a contrarian here again - one thing that is ALWAYS in demand in recessions are salesman who can really sell.
And I don't mean, screw, lie, steal, cheat but who can in the darkest bottoms of 'no demand' strike out and some how find somebody who will buy - who wants to buy - and close the transaction on win-win terms.
It is a world away from 'marketing' - marketers & advertisers are salesman who can't sell.
Real salesman are rare as hell - I'm half assed at it but that's still better than most. That's one of the reasons I have a couple vulture types asking me to sign up - even before they have the company. I at least have a clue how 'we' would start going about connecting with potential industrial customers. They know almost nobody who has even the foggiest idea how to start. And the learning curve is punishing - not a problem to support it in a boom... in a bust folks have to hit the ground running. Cliche but true.
Remember that 70's Saturday morning TV show, Land of the Lost? It started off every week with their theme song and a shot of the intrepid explorers going over the water fall and landing in "The Land of the Lost". This market & economy feel kind of like that.
It also cares about the "stability of the financial system" and "containing systemic risk".
I also agree.
I said on the last thread that if the fed ever thinks we've really hit 'bid only - no ask' conditions... they'll close the TAF window and open the 'overhead door' on the loading dock instead...
Marsha, Will and Holly, on a routine expedition. Or was that George Bush, Ben and Hanky? Either way, they just ran into Chacka and have no frickin clue what it is saying or what to do about it.
Using the chacka translator, I discovered this "T-Rex...RUN!!!"
"For all of you getting your stock advice from anonymous people on blogs...I have some real estate you'd probably be interested in...."
Like the "analysts" on CNBC are better? Hey, they're not anonymous. Maybe the postman? I've met him at least. Should I hire a stockbroker? I've heard enough horror stories about their ilk.
No, if someone can lay out a complelling case in writing (much preferable to the posturing on TV) for an investment, I'll give it a look. CR is anonymous after all, and I take his word on housing over any of the shills on TV, or my friendly local realtor.
tranches, nothing beats doing your own homework and learning, which is why I come here. NOT for investment advice, but to learn from others so that I can better my own research and methods. I then apply that. And sometimes even my postman has things to say...like package deliveries are down, or registered letters from banks in the area are up. All good points to note.
The benchmark index for U.S. stock options gained the most in three weeks as put contracts on Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and General Motors Corp. advanced.
The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, climbed for the first time this week, gaining 13 percent to 23.93. The index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, reached the highest level since June 11. The S&P 500 lost 2.9 percent as analysts said Citigroup and Merrill will report more writedowns and GM plunged to the lowest in at least 46 years.
Trichet will cut and give cover for the next Fed cut. Count on it. Liquidity sucks per Flec's friends comments.
The Fed's balance sheet is as toasted as the $... Full faith and credit requires a nationalization of the credit system in the near future. Doesn't mean we can't have some major snapbacks in the market. The markets are almost too predictable at this point which scares me to death!
Trichet will cut and give cover for the next Fed cut.
I think Trichet will cite liquidity concerns and hold, and that will give the Fed cover. Trichet is honestly playing a hard game and it's going to turn out like New Zeland very shortly if he's not careful. Then he'll be forced to cut, even if it isn't the best choice. Better to hold now, and then ease in Q3 or Q4 after the bulk of the liquidity damage has abated some.
barely writes:
ANyone notice IMB's precarious position today. There's nothing left on the bone to nibble on... $0.80/sh. Probably move to the pinks this week.
Time to break out those old NASDAQ commercials. "The pink sheets: the stock exchange for the next 100 years."
I admit it Misean, I've spent endless hours on Looney Tunes. It's how I learned classical music too And what I want to know is, why is Bugs always in drag???
I like to see a Looney Tunes production of a Fed meeting...lol
"in a bust folks have to hit the ground running. Cliche but true."
That's exactly what a director of engineering at an oil services company told me in '94 when I inquired about a job. Back then, the whole petroleum was gettin leaner by the minute while dealing with $15/barrel oil. The Houston aerospace market was also the pits and I wanted out. Each industry was only hiring engineers with very specific skill sets and there was no flow of engineers between those two industries. No time for training. It's different for the moment.
My experiences that year motivated me to take a bunch of HVAC courses at a community college. The practical, hands on knowledge gained in those courses have yielded long lasting benefits at my job as an analytical engineer an of course around the house.
Can you reply that? I hold both, SDS and TWM, and expected to do better with TWM but that has not been the case.
I'll wager you that the S&P 500 outperforms the Russell 2000 by at least 10% over the next year. I see this environment as one in which large companies devour small companies. Large companies can still get capital on decent terms and they can take market share away.
Small-caps aren't heading into this downturn very efficient or well capitalized. Patience.
"I own the Brooklyn Bridge...bought it from Bugs Bunny. I also own considerable water front land in Florida, which I'm willing to sell cheap."
Misean | 06.26.08 - 7:43 pm | #
Psssst,
If'n ya start ta run low I may have a little more prime swam...errrrr waterfront property avaiable.
2) the offered side (what you can buy things for).
Offered side means there's nothing but sellers.
"Bid Wanted" is the next thing we'll be hearing about. In a "bid wanted" market, the seller pulls his pants down and bends over when a buyer shows him a bid far below where the seller wishes to sell.
My experiences that year motivated me to take a bunch of HVAC courses at a community college. The practical, hands on knowledge gained in those courses have yielded long lasting benefits at my job as an analytical engineer an of course around the house.
hiker90 | 06.26.08 - 7:57 pm | #
Around that same time I started in earnest on a MS in Mfg Systems AND took machine shop & metrology classes at a vo-tech - both at night. Similar reasons.
I am encouraging folks I know to do it now - learn both higher level & hands on in basic things. I don't know what an equivalent would be for financial types... maybe defusing MBS?
"My friend's father is a welder; he's never short on work. The only problem is that our society looks down on these tradesmen."
100% agree. One of the greatest mistakes school districts all over the country have made in the last 30 years has been the gradual elimination of manual trades education courses in high school, in favor of the incredibly glamorous option of pounding a computer under fluorescent lights guzzling diet Coke all day. If I had a son or daughter in high school who didn't have a true burning desire to work hard in college, I'd encourage them to investigate the large range of manual trades that are now desperately short of qualified new workers. Plumbing ain't glamorous, but it's striking how friendly a homeowner whose basement is swimming with turds is towards a plumber willing to come out on a Saturday to fix the problem. The biggest crock of shit that the schools have promulgated is that computer jobs can't be outsourced and that it's the automatic ticket to prosperity.
I'm saying this as someone with two college degrees who pounds a computer all day in the deservedly-maligned field of advertising, marketing, and design. Believe me, there are plenty of days that being a tree-trimmer looks like a step up.
"Offered side means there's nothing but sellers."
KABOOM! | 06.26.08 - 8:09 pm | #
This is where we are right now with homes in this area. A couple of auctions I have attended never even got a first bid. Just us nosey neighbors. I have a list of a few properties that disappeared off the MLS. Cool. Nope. According to county records the banks still own em. You know its getting good when a 1950's 2/1/1 1k sq/ft house doesn't sell at 30k,yes thirty thousand. And you could have moved in.
I was laid off in the early ninties. At that time a lot of Vietnam era guys were still in the workforce turning wrenches. Today? A friend is looking for 3 ASE Master techs with 10 or so years experiance. 30+ dollars an hours to start. He can't find anybody(needs a clean DMV).
So I am very happy everybody sends their kids to colledge!!
Trichet is honestly playing a hard game and it's going to turn out like New Zeland very shortly if he's not careful. Then he'll be forced to cut, even if it isn't the best choice.
Too true, its rock and a hard place..
Our Wal Mart equivalent just announced a 10% profit downgrade, market tanked 1.5%
Our reserve bank has to cut to kick start the economy and let inflation bake in the cake or raise to kill inflation expectations but kill the economy. Either way we are doomed.
4822 writes:
Dryfly: Is there a big market for PLC (programmable logic controller) programmers in manufacturing/industry?
4822 | 06.26.08 - 8:15 pm | #
Some - though not as much as you would expect... at last not in my current world (discrete part mfg). I'd guess its hotter then hell for them in process industries though - especially at the plant level. I know guys who do it at power plants & refineries & they are head-hunted relentlessly.
The area I see need are the 'flex automation' types - who can make a systeem that will do what canned PLC-based systems do but for half as much out of pocket capital.
That person has to be able to cobble together 'smart cells' (still PLC based many times - but separate units networked) from less expensive sub-systems... any damn fool can buy a million dollar CNC machine center & 'program it'... can they take two or three older, less expensive machining centers & get the same productivity out of it for a half million dollars less up front? Get it up & running fast then keep it running? Those guys are golden.
I think the economic numbers do not support the general gloom in the market today.
Commodities are up
Cars and Homes are down
Consumer spending is up
Economic growth was revised up
Why does it matter that some banks are having trouble? They will fail. Good riddance. The rest of the economy not related to lending is doing great. We are back to normal economic activity after years of being in an equity financing bubble that also caused a real estate bubble
Ipodius, I agree with much of what you say, but IF someone recommends a specific investment (and offers their own compelling reasons) that lines up with my own research/learning, I'm going to take a look at it. You wouldn't?
Dang, it felt good taking profits on TWM this morning but then not so good as Mother Market barfed up another 100+ points!
Anyone here like BAC at this price or is sub-$20 on the menu? I figure if push comes to shove they won't cut the divy by >%50, which at these levels still gives a 5% yield.
So the powers that be will continue to randomly rearrange the crystals in the pylon hoping that will take us back? Yeah, that'll help when the Slestacks are after you.
Dryfly - thanks for the info - I've been a "scientific programmer" at a university and am looking to broaden my skills. Years ago I knew a guy who traveled all over the US doing what I assume was "process control programming" . He did very well for himself and family. I'll give it a shot.
I believe the financial markets are at a point equivalent to the moment in the movie, Dr. Strangelove, when Major Kong [Slim Pickens] leaves the cockpit and starts heading back to the bomb bay.
Dr. Strangemoney: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Credit Bubble
You know what the universe does with organisms that think everything is going to be just fine? It weeds them out. Andy Grove was right.
I would keep away from BAC and financials in general. This is because the sector, like the home builders and home related stuff is not in demand. Think of technology in 2001. There is definitely a good time to buy after some resistance to downside in spite of bad news but that time has not come yet. This is my opinion. Also, I have found to be careful of stock advice from other people. Get ideas from others, but go with your gut and mind.
Believe me, there are plenty of days that being a tree-trimmer looks like a step up.
excuse me but that is "arborist" thank you. And being a fair tree-pruner but lousy business man, I would guess you need good business skills to make the tree company succeed. If I had the business skills, I wouldn't be boxing cheese as there is plenty of tree work out there.
Michael,
Thanks, I hear you on the financials. For some reason I couldn't help taking a taste of BAC today just below $25, even though the bulk of my bets are puts on the consumer discretionaries(WGO, I love you!).
I think that BAC will buy CFC and offload the liabilities straight to the Fed and say- if you don't like it we will bk and blow it up anyway. How would like your banking system? Fried or baked?
Bingo - the only explanation for this insane deal going through is that they've already gotten assurances from the Fed, along the lines of, "don't worry, we'll give you T-bills for all CFC's toxic waste."
Only one problem for BoA - the Fed can assume their financial liabilities, but not their legal ones. Should BoA fail, will Illinois and California (along with the other 48 states) sue the Fed?
tranches of like writes:
Ipodius, I agree with much of what you say, but IF someone recommends a specific investment (and offers their own compelling reasons) that lines up with my own research/learning, I'm going to take a look at it. You wouldn't?
tranches of like | 06.26.08 - 8:28 pm | #
Well, I gave my recommendation here back in Feb-it's up 40% since then. And it's not a double-secret ultrashort whatchamacallit. Still room on the upside IMO, but do your own DD. Too many posts here today to read...
Banker: i'm a POS broker/developer/builder so this spring i learned how to garden and made a 120sqft victory garden.
Whip Inflation Now - Plant a Garden
You can probably find some buttons on eBay.
Ben says "Thanks!"
Meanwhile, I'm about to move assets out of oil and into ladybug and praying mantis suppliers in an attempt to front-run congress. Hope everybody is holding their gold overseas. Suckers.
The economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2008, taking it halfway to what many commentators expect will be a technical recession - two quarterly declines in a row.
NZ economy half way to recession, cool the other half is going to be more fun, the fear is tangible here, capitulation in housing just around the corner...
4822 writes:
Dryfly - thanks for the info - I've been a "scientific programmer" at a university and am looking to broaden my skills. Years ago I knew a guy who traveled all over the US doing what I assume was "process control programming" . He did very well for himself and family. I'll give it a shot.
4822 | 06.26.08 - 8:33 pm | #
Are you the commenter always plugging nuclear yes/no? (Sorry if wrong - so many here I lose track) BUT IF SO - look into that specifically. There are two nuke plants in Minnesota & some of the 'controls people' I know work there - they tell me they are desperate for controls people - all the old ones are retiring & they aren't shutting these suckers down anytime soon (and inevitably they will be building more).
As far as discrete mfg systems go - my stuff - they do fly controls people all over the world - but it gets old. I have another friend who has started up a couple plants in Asia (China) - the controls people all but live there until the locals can run it by themselves. Then they stay married to them via Blackberry. Its not the 'book learning' that crosses the locals up - its the practical application in plant.
It was no different when I was a plant/process engineer. In a generation they'll know more 'practical' than us unless we build more plants here & hire our own young'uns to run them.
central_scrutinizer, Bank of Fees just starting treating city parking charges as a cash advance with a charge of $10. Bank of Fees will just keep raising fees until they lose all their customers.
Japan's annual consumer inflation accelerated to a decade-high in May on surging energy costs, and household spending dipped as the job market stagnated, darkening the outlook for the world's second-largest economy.
According to Marketwatch.com: General Motors shares drop 11%, touching lows not seen since the early 1970s, after Goldman Sachs tells its clients to unload their positions in the face of the deteriorating automotive climate.
Now, I've read several different years given for the lows GM has reached, 1955 being the earliest. Can anyone verify this for certain - I don't have charts that go back that far. TIA.
Yeah, I know, it's pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things; GM will be BK probably before end of summer. But it may come up in discussion w/ others over the weekend.
Dryfly --- 'Are you the commenter always plugging nuclear yes/no? (Sorry if wrong - so many here I lose track) BUT IF SO - look into that specifically. There are two nuke plants in Minnesota & some of the 'controls people' I know work there - they tell me they are desperate for controls people - all the old ones are retiring & they aren't shutting these suckers down anytime soon (and inevitably they will be building more).'
Yes, that's me...thanks for the tips and I'll follow up on them!
Dryfly: Is there a big market for PLC (programmable logic controller) programmers in manufacturing/industry?
This is one of the things I do, or rather used to do before moving on to running the projects and other less quantifiable things.
The answer is, generally, no. There is work in it, and I have made my living in the automation and controls business. However, there is not a ton of work outside of the system integrators, because manufacturers below a certain size don't need to maintain anyone on staff, and will call the integrators in for modifications or if there's an issue.
When you meet small plant PLC programmers, they tend to be either the electrician or the site electrical engineer. In both cases they grew into the job and expertise will vary.
Good PLC programming is about skill (programming) knowledge (of the process and operations) and trust (because you can really cause problems). It's something that's developed, and it typically takes me about four or so years to onboard someone to a point where they're really worth something on their own.
My experience is biotech, oil and gas, pulp and paper, steam and power generation, flame safety, and water treatment. Assembly-line manufacturing may be slight different. I plan to find out - moving to Dryfly's neck of the woods (MN) soon and need a job.
funny thing about my garden. if you take the cost of the materials (raised bed)(new soil)(soil amendment)(soil steriods)(seedlings)(my billing rate)(lost utility of 'rec' time) and my tomatoes have GOT to be the most expensive tomatoes ever grown.
No, I don't make it a habit of taking investment advice from handles on the net, but I do pay attention and see if they make sense.
I went into RWM (Russell 2K) on own after reviewing all kinds of stuff. I have a great deal of fun reading, learning and making something work. Like reading and reviewing what I did on a 30 year ago job in order to pour a concrete walkway/stairway for my wife. Like reading up on what has to happen to finish a basement, which will happen with my son.
The garden? Read up on that and prepped - took down fencing, trees and etc and then wound up in hospital for a week. Still, will make it happen next year.
I've got friends who are getting royally screwed by their financial adviser, and I've had to fire such in the past myself.
With the run-up in petroleum, coal is moving up dramatically. Moved into JRCC in March 2008, a good run that hasn't topped out. Look at this and minors with proven/good reserves of low sulfur coal. With the dramatic rise in natural gas, many power plants burning coal are more comperetive than those burning natural gas. Got to love that run-up......
The 'Lord Of The Dark Matter' is a friend of Flecks that obviously has excellent info on the credit markets. Dark Matter refers to the 'stuff' in banks and I-Banks portfolios. You can prove it is there, you just can't see it...or value it.
dryfly: There are two nuke plants in Minnesota & some of the 'controls people' I know work there - they tell me they are desperate for controls people - all the old ones are retiring & they aren't shutting these suckers down anytime soon (and inevitably they will be building more).
You haven't lived until you have driven a square wave through a capacitor with fourier control. I would be a lot happier if Bernanke had majored in something like stochastic systems control. Instead he spent a lot of time computing the correlation of economic recovery time in various countries to how quickly they dropped the gold standard. And to think, his work is the gold standard in depression era economic thought? Oh well, as long as he is a coward, I'll be making the money at the poker table. Of course, I feel sorry for him. It is hard to jawbone when everybody knows your hand.
Had a neighbor that had a huge Xmas display in yard and had problems with folks ripping off the creche figures.
He set up a laser/motion detector on the front, hooked to a really loud car alarm. He's one of the ones that Dryfly is talking about re ability to make things work - guy is frigging brilliant.
Bill fleckenstein has a daily newsletter (private) and also a biweekly column (free). the column is on moneycentral.msn.com.
The "Lord of the Dark Matter" is his friend who works in the financial matter.
"dark matter" is Fleck's nickname for the various banking creations. sort of like a black whole... you know it exists but have no way of evaluating it.
his column is definitely worth a read. He's been predicting a lot of this stuff for a long time.
the guys who tip him have been eerily prescient... (sometimes his tips prelude major market drops just by a few days)
My experience is biotech, oil and gas, pulp and paper, steam and power generation, flame safety, and water treatment. Assembly-line manufacturing may be slight different. I plan to find out - moving to Dryfly's neck of the woods (MN) soon and need a job.
callous | 06.26.08 - 9:04 pm | #
There is a lot of 'process industry' still here so you should find something - let us know how it goes.
We always preferred trip wire set at 12" and 12 ga shotgun shell blanks loaded in a trip drop fixture nailed to a tree. People trying to snatch the yard ornament will literally shit their pants. Good source is the Fall and Spring adventure in Knob Creek Kentucky. Google Knob Creek Range.
I think I'll rent a U-haul truck tommorrow and max out my credit cards before they lower my limits. The pull out ramps on the trucks are great for loading up shopping carts full of food.
Put the hanger bolts in the metal flange - the plastic washers are used to hold these bolts in place - if you toss the washers press the bolts into the sides of the wax ring to hold em in place
Don't overtighten the hanger bolts - if you crack the bowl you'll be pissed.
Take some plaster of paris and mix it to a toothpaste consistency. Run a bead between the toilet and the floor and smooth with your finger. Makes it look pro and keeps any gas from leaking if you didn't get a good seal with the wax ring.
I am a bit of a history junkie. When events hit a major inflection point you get the larger than life people.
The ones that come out of nowhere to shape and ride the power of the change. Sometimes they are good. Most times they leave a legacy of blood, graveyards, and new borders.
Where are they? Thats my indication of a bottom. When the giants of the future show up and take center stage is when I will know the next chapter has begun.
Where are they? Thats my indication of a bottom. When the giants of the future show up and take center stage is when I will know the next chapter has begun.
Nova | 06.26.08 - 9:34 pm | #
The Lord of the Dark Matter last surfaced (according to the Google) in the last week of July 2007, just before the bad stuff hit the fan. The next two weeks may be an interesting time in the markets.
Where are they? Thats my indication of a bottom. When the giants of the future show up and take center stage is when I will know the next chapter has begun.
Kevin Costner (e.g. The Postman, Waterworld, etc.)
BoA's real problem is going to be legal, not financial liabilities. An earlier Bloomberg article stated that after the deal goes through, BoA is planning to put a "firewall" between themselves and all the toxic waste from Countrywide, by creating a separate LLC (Red Oak Company.)
After the merger, "Red Oak" whatever they decide to call it can file for bankruptcy, or better yet get dumped in the Fed's driveway after midnight, like a corpse. Then BoA gets to drive away with the plunder.
However, the Illinois and California lawsuits were astutely filed before the merger goes through. A prior legal action cannot avoided by sweeping all of Countrywide's liabilities into a separate legal entity. Let's see how many other states get in on the action before Tuesday - I predict its gonna be an all-nighter in the Massachusetts and NY AG offices tonight through Tuesday AM.
This will come back to haunt BoA. I predict that eventually the states will reach some settlement with the Feds and BoA in the interest of not bankrupting the largest bank in the country, and possibly establishing a funding source for future bailouts, kind of like the tobacco settlement.
Dipped my toe in the water with srs, sds, and a few others recently and today it felt like a good move. But frankly, the financial devices used to short the indexes are troubling and I probably won't hang onto these stocks for long. Does anyone else have similar misgivings about proshares?
When will it ever be safe to be back in the indexes again, or will it continue to stink, stink, stink? It's funny there's a toilet installation thread going on here simultaneously. Can we swap this outhouse of a market for a toilet, please?
A while back I posted a piece from Minyanville on the proshares ETFs explaining their underperformance. Considering the market so far this year, they have actually done pretty poorly.
If you're one of those unpatriotic types who feels obliged to short rather than just being in cash, you're better off with a straight up short.
Yeah, I know, it's pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things; GM will be BK probably before end of summer. But it may come up in discussion w/ others over the weekend.
I just went and looked at the 1Q08 results for GM.
They had 1Q revenue of $42 billion, an operating loss of a little under $600 million, and have $23 billion in cash on hand. But, they currently have $40 billion more in liabilities than in assets, so I suppose it's possible to see a bankruptcy. But I'm not so sure about that.
Funny how many folks here have programmed PLC's at some point, eh?
In a plug for doing hands-on plus the theory ...
I grew up making fun of engineers ... now I am one(14 years now), and I'm still making fun of them. Our universities are graduating a majority of civil engineers who have never seen rebar or mixed concrete and electrical engineers who've never heard of a PLC and don't know which terminal screws on a duplex receptacle are hot and neutral without looking at the instructions. Educated folks with even a modicum of a clue about the practical side of things are invaluable.
Let me tell you about the cheap way for me. First watch for the grass clipping for compost and mulch. Folks pay dear prices for lawn service folks to grow good grass and then set it out for the trash. You get mulch and potential compost, all ready bagged up and ready to toss in the old pickup or SUV depending on economic level.
Next buy cheap store brand garden fertilizer. Now I grow in containers, BIG containers, the kind trees and big bushes come in. I put in on a recycling list and got 50 free. Put grass clipping in bottom 2/3 and cheap store brand bagged soil in top 1/3 for plants. No real work or need for power equipment. And grow from seeds. A tomato plant costs 1-5$ each. A pack of seed costs 1-2$ for 100 seeds. Ditto for all the vegies. I grow off the wall stuff so I use seeds anyway.
Recycle vegie seeds, for the most part a fruit has 100 seeds that can be dried and used.
Yea always love watching rich folks try gardening to save money.
"If you're one of those unpatriotic types who feels obliged to short rather than just being in cash, you're better off with a straight up short.
Aheadofthecurve"
You're an idiot. My SDS is up over 30% in 7 months. Can't beat it with a short that would have an unlimited loss.
Didn't you claim to be the bottom when you showed up last week? Come back when the real bottom is in. Idiot.
Maria always starts the After the Bell broadcast with that annoying "Do you know where your money is?" line. The upcoming conflagration will give true meaning to that.
There is no liquidity. Banks and non banks like GE are cutting off every credit line to save their credit. However, they will cut to everyone including their good customers. I tried to touch my GE Credit line for an advance and was denied even though the credit line has no debt, has never been late, and I have good credit. The answer after I ran through a new credit check (yes a new credit check) was that I have too much debt. I agreed that I do but they still would not let me consolidate any credit on that line. At least, I will get a free credit report.
Funny thing is that I have already paid off 20 % of my debt and should have another 20% paid off by January. In two years, I will pay off all my debt. Also, I don't have a house and my wife's car is paid off in one year.
So .. the dark lord is very correct. Everyone good and bad will be treated the same with a liquidity reduction. I suspect it will do wonders for the US economy.
The essential BofA fairytale is the quake of '06 and a wheelbarrow of cash. That was then, this is now: semi's from the Fed to haul the stinkerpoop away -- "Well, lookie here, dear, we don't owe a thing."
Promotional brochure for a first Annual Tour of Ben's Bandage Co.('Screw you, you bunch of pansies, you should have tapped in too.')
Buy small farmhouse on small acreage (at 3x our salaries). Buy small cow & small bull (they make beef babies and milk). Use cow poop to fertilize garden. Let cows mow most of the acreage and plant edibles on the rest. Swap homebrew/eggs/butter for winter hay & rototiller useage from neighbors. Buy 10 hens, build small coop. Let hens free range in barnyard. Get state job with full bennies, both of us, no kids. Sell eggs & meat to co-workers.
I don't know how many of you are watching BBC World for the eveningly world financial update. It's talking about how the Asian Markets are taking a serious hit in Friday trading.
The Hang Seng is looking really ugly down almost 500 points.
In many, if not most market crashes, there is a period where something (stocks, bonds, homes, MBS) are offered for sale... but there are no buyers, period.
Really now? If there are no buyers, how can there be a crash? Because if there are no buyers, there are no sales, and if there are no sales, there is no price movement.
Has there ever been a time in the post-WWII era where there hasn't been an active bid for every stock on the NYSE? Except for companies that have become insolvent of course.
Even for housing, which is the most illiquid major asset, there are always buyers in any viable market (i.e. except central Detroit, etc). It's just a matter of price.
Over the last several days, there have been articles about states suing or threatening to sue Countrywide for violating state lending laws.
If Bank of America buys Countrywide, can Countrywide call in the Comptroller of the Currency to claim federal preemption and force the states to back off?
If this is possible, will the states block the BofA takeover of Countryfried in order to preserve the rights of the states to sue Countrywide? Is this why BofA is rushing the merger? Are they trying to get the deal down before the state attorney generals get all their ducks in a row?
States are trying to shake down Countrywide for acceptable business practices, BofA (and JPM) will be the only banks throwing off free cash due to size and check 21(unless #1 bank become coffee can in the back yard)
The whole sector is getting hammered and the float is big enough to not worry about getting squeezed, so it's worth taking a short, but BofA & JPM are the only 2 banks I'd be looking to go long on before reporting week in July.
I would concur - except for the very liquid ones, such as DXD/DDM, SDS/SSO, the double-dare ETFs seem to be marked to fantasy.
I also watched on L2 a couple of days ago when I was starting to cover stuff...
FXP was trading something like 82.47/82.55. I watched someone put in a market order to sell 50 shares. Someone dropped the bid $4.50, stole him, then popped it right back up to 82.50.
Never, never, never put in a market order to do anything. Especially with ProShares.
You're an idiot. My SDS is up over 30% in 7 months. Can't beat it with a short that would have an unlimited loss.
Didn't you claim to be the bottom when you showed up last week? Come back when the real bottom is in. Idiot.
Anonymous | 06.26.08 - 11:41 pm | #
I would never call a bottom in anything except your intelligence. Those who follow this site know that I don't attempt to predict "the market", only a limited number of individual stocks.
I've done well enough to be retired at 50. Hope you can say the same.
dc1000 the other advice I'll give you re: toilets is buy 3-4 wax seals. If one gets cracked it sucks to have to head out right then to get it, and if you don't need them, then just return them for full value next time you're around.
On my first toilet I needed the 2nd seal, and was glad I followed that advice.
This is maybe not a good theory, but someone might be able to comment on this. I'm wondering if these financial crises are happening from the big switch to pension funds and similar investments rather than pensions.
Previously a recession probably occured when speculators went too far and they lost their money back to the point of where those assets should have appreciated according to inflation. So the real estate market would normally appreciated at around inflation and if it went above that in a bubble then it normally had to return to that inflation line.
Normally these speculators were more wealthy than the average and they also owned stocks like banks, etc and so in a recession the wealthier people lost money they had not really gained in legitimate investments.
But now with so many pension funds it is equivalent to the old story of everyone investing in the stock market before the great depression except now your pension fund is doing it for you. So instead of Americans not saving they are in effect saving too much through all these funds.
When all these fund chase higher returns this money ends up in bubbles and they bid up the prices of real estate, stocks, commodities, etc until it crashes and they as a group lose about what they gained. They lose this because they were not productive investments just pension funds bidding against each other.
So as a bubble crashes then the average person doesn't really gain or lose much because their pension fund goes down in value, but this is irrelevant until they retire. The bubbles created by this however disrupt the average person's life by bidding the price of real estate, commodities and distorting the market. So as the pension funds make money for their clients those same clients are losing money by paying more for the consequences of the bubble their own retirement needs created.
As another example people got mortgages they couldn't pay off and that mortgage was sold off to their own pension fund. In effect a loan against their own future retirement they couldn't pay off. However the value of their pensions might drop from this, but soon they will be able to buy the same house much cheaper, so they gain as their retirement fund loses. So at first the pension fund rises but it also raises their cost of living, then it falls and the cost of living falls as well. At the moment pension funds might be making money for people on oil but it is coming from their own clients in higher fuel prices.
So instead of a recession cleaning up excess speculation it no longer does this because their retirement funds just keep building more bubbles to get back their losses from the last one. Even a recession or depression would not stop this market chaos from continuing.
«When all these fund chase higher returns this money ends up in bubbles and they bid up the prices of real estate, stocks, commodities, etc until it crashes and they as a group lose about what they gained. They lose this because they were not productive investments just pension funds bidding against each other. So as a bubble crashes then the average person doesn't really gain or lose much because their pension fund goes down in value, but this is irrelevant until they retire. The bubbles created by this however disrupt the average person's life by bidding the price of real estate, commodities and distorting the market. So as the pension funds make money for their clients those same clients are losing money by paying more for the consequences of the bubble their own retirement needs created.»
Yes and no -- stock-invested pension accounts are in effect as Grover Norquist argued so well a device to ensure permanently high stock prices, or more precisely to allow "old money" and fee-based earners (both Republican campaign donors) to profit from unloading stuff to rubes at high prices and earn a lot on churn at the same time.
Whether some purchasing is done directly or indirectly matters a great deal to the wealth of vast swathes of Republican campaign donors.
«As another example people got mortgages they couldn't pay off and that mortgage was sold off to their own pension fund. In effect a loan against their own future retirement they couldn't pay off. However the value of their pensions might drop from this, but soon they will be able to buy the same house much cheaper, so they gain as their retirement fund loses. So at first the pension fund rises but it also raises their cost of living, then it falls and the cost of living falls as well.»
But oh please this is not the same people who lose and gain, reasoning too much like this in the aggregate obscures the very profound distributional impacts this has, and never mind the colossal amount diverted into fees and bonuses for the pension fund managers.
«At the moment pension funds might be making money for people on oil but it is coming from their own clients in higher fuel prices.»
And this is a clear example of a high distributional impact here too: fund managers reap colossal fees and bonuses, oil producers enjoy the higher prices, and the clients see paper gains that will not hold in the aggregate, and the non-clients (e.g. young or poor workers) funds most of the above.
"But oh please this is not the same people who lose and gain, reasoning too much like this in the aggregate obscures the very profound distributional impacts this has, and never mind the colossal amount diverted into fees and bonuses for the pension fund managers."
Blissex, normally they are not the same people but may be around the same kinds of people as far as income and assets. There is a strong distributional aspect but now there is a new force in the markets, where people's pension funds are ripping off their own contributors. Some would obviously do better than others, but many funds would have around the same performance levels.
So if they make roughly the same returns on investments for these pension funds then who are they maing this money from but their own clients? The rich are usually too clever to make money out of and as you say they make money from fees of all this churning.
As in the Matrix, everything that has a beginning has an end in bubbles. But in this case there may be no end, just pension funds exploiting workers to make them more moeny for their own retirement. Eventually this churn would stop as it shook the economy apart and fees ate up more and more capital, but a recession would only increase this churn as mension funds tried to catch up.
So for example if they are behind the commodity boom they are hurting the workers in a new way after ruining their housing market. If these pension funds did not exist then would not have been the demand for sub prime bonds and the easy credit that followed from them.
Please don't feed the trolls.
What about the Gnomes?
Turbo, you there? How are the things doing in your part of the credit world?
An Emergency Rate Cut! wait....
An Emergency Rate Hike! well...
How about ALF? (Another Lending Facility)
I think the 21st Century version of RTC is a given. The question is, how much would a loaf of bread cost?
Call me a n00bie, but what is "offered only"?
Wall st started digging a deep hole this week to bury Goldilocks, for good.
I believe the financial markets are at a point equivalent to the moment in the movie, Dr. Strangelove, when Major Kong [Slim Pickens] leaves the cockpit and starts heading back to the bomb bay.
No bid to buy on the other side, only offers to sell.
Argento --
Call me a n00bie, but what is "offered only"?
Instruments that trade in two-sided auctions -- like stocks and bonds -- always have two prices: The "bid" and the "offer" (also known as the "ask").
He is saying these markets have become one-sided auctions... No bids.
He believed that the equity market was "miles behind what was occurring in the mortgage-backed/credit markets."
LMFAO it's catching up.
Argento: Viable markets have a buyer and a seller... they agree on a price somewhere. This is how markets 'clear'. In many, if not most market crashes, there is a period where something (stocks, bonds, homes, MBS) are offered for sale... but there are no buyers, period.
The 1987 Dow crash opened that way.. the 1929 crash also had periods of 'offered only', and no buyers.
Eventually, buyers return. But by then the damage has been done.
Mark to market accounting will be nice this quarter - mark those securities to the no-bid prices. LMFAO!!
It's About to Blow!
t. Helens catastrophically erupted on May 18, 1980. After many months of lead-up activity, including the growth of a huge bulge on the north part of the mountain, a moderate earthquake caused the entire north flank of the mountain to slide away in the largest landslide in recorded history.[29] The newly-exposed hot and pressurized rock in the volcano responded by producing the largest historic volcanic eruption in the 48 contiguous U.S. states.[29] (See the Geology section for more detail.)
During the lead-up to the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, 83-year-old Harry R. Truman, who had lived near the mountain for 54 years, became famous when he decided not to evacuate before the impending eruption, despite repeated pleas by local authorities. His body was never found after the eruption. Fifty-seven people were killed or never found. Had the eruption occurred one day later, when loggers would have been at work, rather than on a Sunday, the death toll would almost certainly have been much higher.[6]
Mount St. Helens - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Cal, Anonymouse, Nemo:
thanks. doh! thought it was a mortgage specific term.
that can't be good =)
Treasury prices up
USD up
GO figure?
Jim
The Dow is cutting through the very-long term trendline like a hot knife through butter.
The 3-day simple moving average of the TRIN made a new 30-day low yesterday and today is giving a SELL signal.
Could the fireworks be upon us already?
c&c, it would be nice to get real market-to-market accounting. And, I hope that we do.
But, my guess is that we'll get more movement from L1/2 to L3, to forestall the day of reckoning.
What? Like everyone thought this crappy paper was all over and done with? This is not going to clear until there are a couple more sacrificial victims. I wonder who they will be....
Hey Tanta,
Remember when you pooh poohed my idea of paying mils for mortgage debt?
I think the time has come when it has arrived!!! (I love mangling english!)
Mils for mortgages!
How much for that million dollar mortgage? Six thousand!
Sold!
The houses that supported the unsupportable no longer have anything near a realistic value, so the paper now has to assume values corresponding with the remaining value.
Near nothing-
BTW 10 new lows in ABX today- mainly AAA and AA tranches.
Products and Services Overview
Fugly.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Yeh, but JG, won't it look funny after a while, if someone were to plot the ratios of L3/(L1+2+L3)...eventually it might wake someone up to a problem that a growing share of value is illusory.
I'm guessing this will be a "working weekend" at the Fed.
Get used to the words "bid fail", "offer only", "fail to deliver", "retracted offer/auction due to low/no bid". Also worry when sentiment and one day plunge gets this dark...In the three years from October 1929 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 90 per cent, but it enjoyed five rallies of between 16 and 48 per cent.
The dow is just heading down to where is should be given forward earnings and the economic climate in the last two quarters. Anyone that thought the dow belonged much above 11000 was smoking crack. But this is good. It's about time Goldilocks was eaten by the bears after she soiled their beds and ate their food.
Now the fairy tale can move on.
LEH, WM, Wachovia, KEY, MER, IMB, MBIA, ABK. Lambs ready for the trussing.
Get prepared for ugly phase 2 tonight. New Zealand opens down 1.35% in the first half hour. Any guesses on Shanghai? I'll start the bidding at -4% in the first half hour, closing at -7%.
Eventually, buyers return. But by then the damage has been done.
Yossarian | 06.26.08 - 6:37 pm | #
One detail - those buyers return at MUCH MUCH lower prices. That is the 'damage'.
Oh, great GoogaMooga, can't you hear me talking to you.
These feels like the BS weekend. CR you better lay out some cots, we might be here for a few days...
Does anybody else find it, well, potentially ominous or at least odd, that many people may continue to be near-completely unaware of this because of the gun ruling? (This, based on a quick dash through MSM main pages.) Though, I guess a lot of desperate people will find that latter useful in the coming months... Yoikes. Which right should I invoke when ruining my liver tonight? I think I'll drink hardest over the whole unaware part of the equation which will might end up with me being unaware, but I think I can live with that for a bit.
I smell panic and fear. . .
scav - Id lay off the sauce tonight. You have to wake up early for the open. Friday night, is another story. I plan on being drowned in C2H6O by the market close.
Does anybody else find it, well, potentially ominous or at least odd, that many people may continue to be near-completely unaware of this because of the gun ruling?
350 visitors on a Thurs. evening - not everyone is unaware.
Anybody know of a good place for looking to purchase specific notes from these pools?
Does anybody else find it, well, potentially ominous or at least odd, that many people may continue to be near-completely unaware of this because of the gun ruling?
Never owned a gun in my life, but after reading some of the comments, I'm ready to get a gun to complement my Y2K food storage.
ANyone notice IMB's precarious position today. There's nothing left on the bone to nibble on... $0.80/sh. Probably move to the pinks this week. Quick fall from grace. FDIC will be sweeping up the debris soon.
[WASHINGTON (AP) -- The possible collapse of big mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp Inc. poses significant financial risks to its borrowers and depositors, and regulators may not be ready to intervene to protect them, Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said Thursday. A wave of IndyMac depositors withdrawing their funds could leave IndyMac "in a disastrous financial situation," Schumer said]
Was looking though bonds on schwab and saw AMBAC yield of 18%+....so if they last 5 years, at least you get your principal back, right?
OT to Rich from last thread.
Thanks for the read.
Enlightening.
Did you do all that yourownself?
...unaware of this because of the gun ruling?
That gun ruling only put a stake in the ground that existed in practice anyhow...that you can't outlaw everyone from owning a gun. It left intact restrictions on that ownership. It was also 5-4, which means the only thing that could possibly make me think of voting for O is a supreme court vacancy...which I would be very amused to see go to HRC. So amused, in fact, that it tempts me over to the O camp.
But this bull-death rattle? This is what people like me have been waiting for. Panic. Which always smells like opportunity.
I still find it amazing that even though the fundamentals are broken, even though there are no bids, even though people are claiming that it's never been this bad, that there is still no pushing of the panic button.
Even as little as twenty years ago, the fact that the stilts holding up the house are ridden with termites would have been the lead story on the nightly news, night after night after night. Our economy is broken, and unless you have a 21st century job, you are in for a world of hurt in the next few years if you live in the US.
Internet.
Biotechnology.
Robotics.
Astrobiology.
Nanotechnology.
Alternative energy.
Basically, all of those shiny upgrades in SimCity.
People with children: you need to start treating scientists and technology workers like role models when you're around your children, if you want them to have any shot at a good life at all. Firefighter, doctor, and astronaut don't cut it anymore.
Aw, Geoff, folks who are that analytical -- calculating ratios of L3 vs. L1-L3 and looking at changes in such -- would never buy the 'all is well' story in the first place.
I presume that fear will soon overtake analysis, and that no matter what the I-banks try, folks will not believe them.
Hand, hand, figers, thumb
one thumb, one thumb, drumming on a drum dum ditty, dum ditty, dum dum dum
hand in hand more monkeys come
monkeys hum and monkeys drum
hum drum, hum drum, hum drum hum...
rings on fingers, rings on thumbs
drum drum, drum drum, drum drum drum
Awe shit, 420 visitors online. Last time this happened, there was a huge intra day reversal and a 2 month bear market rally.
Now the fairy tale can move on.
ipodius | 06.26.08 - 6:44 pm | #
I do so agree.
"People with children: you need to start treating scientists and technology workers like role models when you're around your children, if you want them to have any shot at a good life at all. Firefighter, doctor, and astronaut don't cut it anymore."
Dean Kamen has been beating that drum for years with his self-funded high-school robotics competitions. He thinks the best scientists/inventors deserve the status, at least, of a good football player.
But doctor, teacher, cop are always going to cut it. What we could use less of, and will need less of, are advertising/PR people, marketing directors, real estate salesmen, lawyers -- all the gatekeeping "middlemen" who take a cut of the wealth without contributing much of meaning.
Whats to worry? At least the banks can mark to the offer price for quarter end accounting.
Mark,
Teaching is still a 21Century job, not to be confused with Century 21. And remember, unpaid summers off give you lots of time to study the market and enjoy Calculated Risk.
homie, continuing from the last thread, Dick Cheney, but he will soon be checking out!
Only question now: Tango or drink?
Indymac is dead this weekend, Friday night they turn out the lights;-}
Or so I believe.
I think that BAC will buy CFC and offload the liabilities straight to the Fed and say- if you don't like it we will bk and blow it up anyway. How would like your banking system? Fried or baked?
The dollar is wobbling, and our idiots have taken over the village.
Better figure out fast that you have to do something or it will be left upto the 100 day miracle team.
Call me Rex Tugwell.
Lol.
Or not. I would prefer not to be there if we have to repeat the last fiasco.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Conjure's Credit Collapse Clock is ticking.
Tick, tock.
Where's Sebastian?
"Awe shit, 420 visitors online. Last time this happened, there was a huge intra day reversal and a 2 month bear market rally."
420? Psssssssst.... ahhhh. Sounds like we could all use a collective joint right now. I'll bet Bernanke could.
Conjure's Credit Collapse Clock is ticking.
You will wake me just prior to the alarm going off, won't you?
don't worry,
Barack Hussien Obamma will have his
muslim friends buy the excess inventory of MBS,agencies,etc.
Last month's old news:
Goldman Sachs said Fifth Third and Regions were most at risk of both a dividend
cut and capital raising. Comerica, SunTrust and Bank of America had offsetting
factors that might allow them to just cut their dividend and avoid capital
raising, the firm said. A Bank of America spokesman declined to comment. Representatives of the other
four banks werent immediately available to comment. On Tuesday, Bank of America
Chief Executive Ken Lewis told analysts that, under what the bank views as the
most likely scenario, in which the U.S. avoids a severe recession, Bank of
America wont have to cut its dividend or raise capital.
Bank of America to cut Divs??
sweet... Dennis Kneale is on Kudlow tonight
mp writes:
Conjure's Credit Collapse Clock is ticking.
Tick, tock.
Don't ask me why, but everytime you write this, I picture that happy clock on the front of It's a Small World.
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!
barely --
ANyone notice IMB's precarious position today.
I must admit, this one surprises me. The company and its management have been through multiple credit cycles. Plus, as a thrift, they have always had access to the Fed's Bag of Holding.
But is it really wise for a U.S. Senator to recommend in public that we all start a run on the bank?
Anybody happen to know if the senior Senator from New York has any, you know, hedge fund investments? Just curious.
But Ken Fisher said last year "there were no credit issues, go long"
Bob Dobbs writes:
"Awe shit, 420 visitors online. Last time this happened, there was a huge intra day reversal and a 2 month bear market rally."
I remember that day. I would normally bet it is nearly impossible for that to happen again; but the train wreck has moved so slowly that I would not be surprised if there is a comeback.
Me, I covered my shorts the Monday of the BSC bailout. Reshorted in early April and have been wating patiently until this time. I will stay short this time around!
Ok now we are getting somewhere. I have no idea what has been propping up the market, but its been clear to anyone with eyes who doesn't work as a ratings analyst that the economy was headed for a very bad time.
With all the cheap credit, people threw out the concept of risk. Risk is back baby!!! And soon, 12% mortgages will return as well.
Even as little as twenty years ago, the fact that the stilts holding up the house are ridden with termites would have been the lead story on the nightly news, night after night after night. Our economy is broken, and unless you have a 21st century job, you are in for a world of hurt in the next few years if you live in the US.
Internet.
Biotechnology.
Robotics.
Astrobiology.
Nanotechnology.
Alternative energy.
Basically, all of those shiny upgrades in SimCity.
People with children: you need to start treating scientists and technology workers like role models when you're around your children, if you want them to have any shot at a good life at all. Firefighter, doctor, and astronaut don't cut it anymore.
Mark | Homepage | 06.26.08 - 6:59 pm | #
Just in case you might want to make sure they can weld too...
If we really are at a reset point - even 'real' scientists will go begging. We won't have the wealth to support their 'research'. The smart ones will have to leave to where the new money is. The Persian Gulf, Asia, Russia or the EU. Hell maybe even Brazil.
Without funding - its pretty hard to do science. BTW my roommate in college was a Turkish PhD candidate - he never went home - they couldn't fund his work. That was over 25 years ago. Times change.
The folks who will do well in the US - assuming a real reset - will be the NEXT tier down... practical hands on keep shit running engineers & techs & skilled blue collar maintenance types.
I had friends who were in Iraq right after the fall & were charged with keeping a power plant running - they said NONE OF THEM were prepared for what they had to do - it was all bailing wire & duck tape & spot weld fixes. Most of it they learned from Iraqi engineers & techs who had been doing similar for decades.
Again this is predicated on a real old fashioned to the ground reset. I'm not convinced we'll get there. I wouldn't say it could never happen though.
Scotty:
captain, the matter-antimater engines cant take much more o this.
Kirk: (played by Ben B.)
Scotty...do...the...best..you...can..
Scotty (played by Poole)
Captain, she's gonna blow
McCoy (Shela B)
Jim, I'm a doctor not an engineer, but if we don't do something soon this mans gonnna die.
Spok (played by Timothy Geithner)
Captain it would seem that the logical thing do is release more dilithium crystals (liquidity) into the engines (financial system) whether the engines can handle the load (inflation) or not if we don't break loose from the gravitational field of this black hole (debt) it won't matter if the engine blow or not.
Ben.
I...dont...know...what...to...do
I don't know about anyone else here, but I have that tingle I got right before BSC imploded. I'm feeling that someone else is about to go down, and that's what is going on in that area.
As for the dow, the Fed doesn't care about the market. It cares about the banks. The dow is going to where it should have been. So don't expect any comments or action for those boys. But do expect action if a major bank goes down. I do have a feeling that another IB failure would also be ignored now, should that happen. Just a hunch. The two that are candidates aren't too big to fail.
I also want to thank Rich for that Russell 2000 PE explanation.
And, thanks to everyone who recommended SRS and TWM the past year. I got in on Tuesday, after thinking about it for a while...
(Yeah, could be famous last words...)
practical hands on keep shit running engineers & techs & skilled blue collar maintenance types
My friend's father is a welder; he's never short on work. The only problem is that our society looks down on these tradesmen, much in the way it does renters.
Aerospace industries need to team up with Coke and Pepsi to make our flying cars that run off a new fuel based off a coke-pepsi cocktail.
No Bull said: "Where's Sebastian?"
I have a life.
I'm packing for a long weekend at the beach.
This is exactly the kind of atmosphere I've been waiting for, the news headline "Worst June for the Dow since 1930" was my "Eureka!" moment.
I'll run my small-cap stock scans when I get back and post when I get a "buy" signal. Still maintaining my SP500 index fund holding since January.
Luck to all,
Sebastia
I thought it was always a good time to "buy"
"I also want to thank Rich for that Russell 2000 PE explanation."
Can you reply that? I hold both, SDS and TWM, and expected to do better with TWM but that has not been the case.
You bought some time back and are now underwater. I purchased based on your recommendations. I am now underwater.
I need you address so my atty can send you a demand letter!
But doctor, teacher, cop are always going to cut it. What we could use less of, and will need less of, are advertising/PR people, marketing directors, real estate salesmen, lawyers -- all the gatekeeping "middlemen" who take a cut of the wealth without contributing much of meaning.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 06.26.08 - 7:02 pm | #
I'm going to be a bit of a contrarian here again - one thing that is ALWAYS in demand in recessions are salesman who can really sell.
And I don't mean, screw, lie, steal, cheat but who can in the darkest bottoms of 'no demand' strike out and some how find somebody who will buy - who wants to buy - and close the transaction on win-win terms.
It is a world away from 'marketing' - marketers & advertisers are salesman who can't sell.
Real salesman are rare as hell - I'm half assed at it but that's still better than most. That's one of the reasons I have a couple vulture types asking me to sign up - even before they have the company. I at least have a clue how 'we' would start going about connecting with potential industrial customers. They know almost nobody who has even the foggiest idea how to start. And the learning curve is punishing - not a problem to support it in a boom... in a bust folks have to hit the ground running. Cliche but true.
Again - only valid IF we see a real reset.
Remember that 70's Saturday morning TV show, Land of the Lost? It started off every week with their theme song and a shot of the intrepid explorers going over the water fall and landing in "The Land of the Lost". This market & economy feel kind of like that.
Can you reply that? I hold both, SDS and TWM...
For all of you getting your stock advice from anonymous people on blogs...I have some real estate you'd probably be interested in....
dryfly, you are right. GOOD salesmen are worth whatever you pay them. and very hard to find.
ipodius --
As for the dow, the Fed doesn't care about the market. It cares about the banks.
It also cares about the "stability of the financial system" and "containing systemic risk". I think you are right that they do not care about the equities markets, but the credit markets are another matter entirely.
"I'll run my small-cap stock scans when I get back"
Seb, typo. I'm sure you meant scams. Isn't the long weekend a week away? Packing early, eh? Gee....got to run?
Symbol Lookup from Yahoo! Finance
Mock turtle,
Maybe the captain should hold on to the dilithium crystals until he sees what is on the other side of the Black hole pulling him in!
He may need some juice on the otherside.
I agree nemo! They do care about the credit markets. And they will act appropriately. But everyone whining about the stock market fuggedaboutit.
which is why they will act if a major bank goes belly up. and they may be doing that now.
It also cares about the "stability of the financial system" and "containing systemic risk".
I also agree.
I said on the last thread that if the fed ever thinks we've really hit 'bid only - no ask' conditions... they'll close the TAF window and open the 'overhead door' on the loading dock instead...
Marsha, Will and Holly, on a routine expedition. Or was that George Bush, Ben and Hanky? Either way, they just ran into Chacka and have no frickin clue what it is saying or what to do about it.
Using the chacka translator, I discovered this "T-Rex...RUN!!!"
"For all of you getting your stock advice from anonymous people on blogs...I have some real estate you'd probably be interested in...."
Like the "analysts" on CNBC are better? Hey, they're not anonymous. Maybe the postman? I've met him at least. Should I hire a stockbroker? I've heard enough horror stories about their ilk.
No, if someone can lay out a complelling case in writing (much preferable to the posturing on TV) for an investment, I'll give it a look. CR is anonymous after all, and I take his word on housing over any of the shills on TV, or my friendly local realtor.
tranches, nothing beats doing your own homework and learning, which is why I come here. NOT for investment advice, but to learn from others so that I can better my own research and methods. I then apply that. And sometimes even my postman has things to say...like package deliveries are down, or registered letters from banks in the area are up. All good points to note.
ipodius sorry bro but I already own the brooklyn bridge....
The benchmark index for U.S. stock options gained the most in three weeks as put contracts on Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and General Motors Corp. advanced.
The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, climbed for the first time this week, gaining 13 percent to 23.93. The index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, reached the highest level since June 11. The S&P 500 lost 2.9 percent as analysts said Citigroup and Merrill will report more writedowns and GM plunged to the lowest in at least 46 years.
Bloomberg.com
Some will do ok.... probably not the general public tho....
ades, ipodius,
I own the Brooklyn Bridge...bought it from Bugs Bunny. I also own considerable water front land in Florida, which I'm willing to sell cheap.
As to something big being in the air...yep.
Cheers,
to sum up fleck:
YouTube
- Iron Maiden: Run to the Hills
ades,
"Some will do ok.... probably not the general public tho...."
Now I don't think the general public will get fleeced.
I think they'll get skinned alive and roasted over a hot fire.
Cheers,
Trichet will cut and give cover for the next Fed cut. Count on it. Liquidity sucks per Flec's friends comments.
The Fed's balance sheet is as toasted as the $... Full faith and credit requires a nationalization of the credit system in the near future. Doesn't mean we can't have some major snapbacks in the market. The markets are almost too predictable at this point which scares me to death!
I own the Brooklyn Bridge...bought it from Bugs Bunny.
Not so fast Misean!!!! rustle I have it right here...the deed. And it's signed by Wile E. Coyote and issued by the ACME deed company.
emergency rate hike and that will still leave us really really low historically
better to tank the economy, reduce petro costs by forcing a recoupling, get the dollar up and inflation down
and then see who survives the creative destruction
who says we need american investment banks and american automakers anyway?
ipodius,
"Not so fast Misean!!!! rustle I have it right here...the deed. And it's signed by Wile E. Coyote and issued by the ACME deed company."
ROFL!!
Cheers,
...and then see who survives the creative destruction?...
fallon | 06.26.08 - 7:47 pm | #
Hmmmm. An indian casino out in South Dakota?
Trichet will cut and give cover for the next Fed cut.
I think Trichet will cite liquidity concerns and hold, and that will give the Fed cover. Trichet is honestly playing a hard game and it's going to turn out like New Zeland very shortly if he's not careful. Then he'll be forced to cut, even if it isn't the best choice. Better to hold now, and then ease in Q3 or Q4 after the bulk of the liquidity damage has abated some.
barely writes:
ANyone notice IMB's precarious position today. There's nothing left on the bone to nibble on... $0.80/sh. Probably move to the pinks this week.
Time to break out those old NASDAQ commercials. "The pink sheets: the stock exchange for the next 100 years."
Misean,
I posted earlier today, the S&P was up something like 24% over the last 10 years.
The geo average for that is scary. Lets hope people start to work longer...
we have some great casinos here in oregon...but lately they have been not so keen on taking dollars...too much of gamble!
they prefer corn...
Black Friday Tommorrow ?
I admit it Misean, I've spent endless hours on Looney Tunes. It's how I learned classical music too
And what I want to know is, why is Bugs always in drag???
I like to see a Looney Tunes production of a Fed meeting...lol
wawawa,
Mondays are way more fun. It gives me something to do on Sunday night, (watch futures etc...)
Unless of course they brought back Dean Cain and the new adventures of Superman. Then Friday would be fine with me....
fallon,
Hell yes they will take corn. I've got a grain silo receipt on my desk for my wheat at $8.97/bu.
"in a bust folks have to hit the ground running. Cliche but true."
That's exactly what a director of engineering at an oil services company told me in '94 when I inquired about a job. Back then, the whole petroleum was gettin leaner by the minute while dealing with $15/barrel oil. The Houston aerospace market was also the pits and I wanted out. Each industry was only hiring engineers with very specific skill sets and there was no flow of engineers between those two industries. No time for training. It's different for the moment.
My experiences that year motivated me to take a bunch of HVAC courses at a community college. The practical, hands on knowledge gained in those courses have yielded long lasting benefits at my job as an analytical engineer an of course around the house.
No Bull writes:
Where's Sebastian?
No Bull | Homepage | 06.26.08 - 7:06 pm | #
-------------------------------------- I am trying to repair my Wright Model B ; the wheels keep falling off.
I write this stuff for a living.
But I couldn't do it without the inspiration of CR.
Sold wheat foreward at $9.65. Got a margin call. Met same. Bought wheat back at $8.16. Harvested wheat and sold into cash at $8.97.
I need a spanking...Actually a 6pk of Shiner Bock will do.
Ta
I drink your wealth! I drink it up!!
I'll wager you that the S&P 500 outperforms the Russell 2000 by at least 10% over the next year. I see this environment as one in which large companies devour small companies. Large companies can still get capital on decent terms and they can take market share away.
Small-caps aren't heading into this downturn very efficient or well capitalized. Patience.
"I own the Brooklyn Bridge...bought it from Bugs Bunny. I also own considerable water front land in Florida, which I'm willing to sell cheap."
Misean | 06.26.08 - 7:43 pm | #
Psssst,
If'n ya start ta run low I may have a little more prime swam...errrrr waterfront property avaiable.
Chris
@ Argento
A functioning market consists of two sides:
1) the bidside (what you can sell something for)
and
2) the offered side (what you can buy things for).
Offered side means there's nothing but sellers.
"Bid Wanted" is the next thing we'll be hearing about. In a "bid wanted" market, the seller pulls his pants down and bends over when a buyer shows him a bid far below where the seller wishes to sell.
My experiences that year motivated me to take a bunch of HVAC courses at a community college. The practical, hands on knowledge gained in those courses have yielded long lasting benefits at my job as an analytical engineer an of course around the house.
hiker90 | 06.26.08 - 7:57 pm | #
Around that same time I started in earnest on a MS in Mfg Systems AND took machine shop & metrology classes at a vo-tech - both at night. Similar reasons.
I am encouraging folks I know to do it now - learn both higher level & hands on in basic things. I don't know what an equivalent would be for financial types... maybe defusing MBS?
"My friend's father is a welder; he's never short on work. The only problem is that our society looks down on these tradesmen."
100% agree. One of the greatest mistakes school districts all over the country have made in the last 30 years has been the gradual elimination of manual trades education courses in high school, in favor of the incredibly glamorous option of pounding a computer under fluorescent lights guzzling diet Coke all day. If I had a son or daughter in high school who didn't have a true burning desire to work hard in college, I'd encourage them to investigate the large range of manual trades that are now desperately short of qualified new workers. Plumbing ain't glamorous, but it's striking how friendly a homeowner whose basement is swimming with turds is towards a plumber willing to come out on a Saturday to fix the problem. The biggest crock of shit that the schools have promulgated is that computer jobs can't be outsourced and that it's the automatic ticket to prosperity.
I'm saying this as someone with two college degrees who pounds a computer all day in the deservedly-maligned field of advertising, marketing, and design. Believe me, there are plenty of days that being a tree-trimmer looks like a step up.
Dryfly: Is there a big market for PLC (programmable logic controller) programmers in manufacturing/industry?
"Offered side means there's nothing but sellers."
KABOOM! | 06.26.08 - 8:09 pm | #
This is where we are right now with homes in this area. A couple of auctions I have attended never even got a first bid. Just us nosey neighbors. I have a list of a few properties that disappeared off the MLS. Cool. Nope. According to county records the banks still own em. You know its getting good when a 1950's 2/1/1 1k sq/ft house doesn't sell at 30k,yes thirty thousand. And you could have moved in.
Chris
NZSE -1.65%
All Ordinaries -2.74%
KOSPI -2.49%
Could be worse, I guess.
hey dry,
i'm a POS broker/developer/builder so this spring i learned how to garden and made a 120sqft victory garden.
just starting to get some juicy tomatoes on the vine with squash, zucchini, eggplant and peppers on the way.
oh and i started fixing crap around the house myself! shocker!
i'm changing out a toilet this weekend.
the key points i heard are:
1) stick a rag in the vent stack to prevent stink while you swap the toilets
2) dont forget to take the rag out when you put the new one on
11453 on the Dow. 30 more points and it's officially a bear market (20% off peak of 14,280).
ipodius,
Rebooted to wrong thread. Here's my estate agent in action.
ipodius,
Here's the agent that sold me it.
YouTube - ? v=a8mNg4P_uLA
Cheers,
Cobra,
"If'n ya start ta run low I may have a little more prime swam...errrrr waterfront property avaiable."
Keep that whole swam... thing on the downlow, OK.
Cheers,
dc1000,
"1) stick a rag in the vent stack to prevent stink while you swap the toilets"
Forget the stink. The methane's the real problem.
Cheers,
ipodius,
Try this link...DOH!!!
YouTube -
bluestatedon | 06.26.08 - 8:15 pm |
I was laid off in the early ninties. At that time a lot of Vietnam era guys were still in the workforce turning wrenches. Today? A friend is looking for 3 ASE Master techs with 10 or so years experiance. 30+ dollars an hours to start. He can't find anybody(needs a clean DMV).
So I am very happy everybody sends their kids to colledge!!
Chris
Trichet is honestly playing a hard game and it's going to turn out like New Zeland very shortly if he's not careful. Then he'll be forced to cut, even if it isn't the best choice.
Too true, its rock and a hard place..
Our Wal Mart equivalent just announced a 10% profit downgrade, market tanked 1.5%
Our reserve bank has to cut to kick start the economy and let inflation bake in the cake or raise to kill inflation expectations but kill the economy. Either way we are doomed.
4822 writes:
Dryfly: Is there a big market for PLC (programmable logic controller) programmers in manufacturing/industry?
4822 | 06.26.08 - 8:15 pm | #
Some - though not as much as you would expect... at last not in my current world (discrete part mfg). I'd guess its hotter then hell for them in process industries though - especially at the plant level. I know guys who do it at power plants & refineries & they are head-hunted relentlessly.
The area I see need are the 'flex automation' types - who can make a systeem that will do what canned PLC-based systems do but for half as much out of pocket capital.
That person has to be able to cobble together 'smart cells' (still PLC based many times - but separate units networked) from less expensive sub-systems... any damn fool can buy a million dollar CNC machine center & 'program it'... can they take two or three older, less expensive machining centers & get the same productivity out of it for a half million dollars less up front? Get it up & running fast then keep it running? Those guys are golden.
Anyone else burning bowls and enjoying the show?
"the key points i heard are:"
3) don't forget to remove the old seal and replace it with a new one;
4) BTW, new flange bolts would be nice;
I think the economic numbers do not support the general gloom in the market today.
Commodities are up
Cars and Homes are down
Consumer spending is up
Economic growth was revised up
Why does it matter that some banks are having trouble? They will fail. Good riddance. The rest of the economy not related to lending is doing great. We are back to normal economic activity after years of being in an equity financing bubble that also caused a real estate bubble
Ipodius, I agree with much of what you say, but IF someone recommends a specific investment (and offers their own compelling reasons) that lines up with my own research/learning, I'm going to take a look at it. You wouldn't?
mp,
sweet dude. thanks for the hints
now lets see, do i need to turn off the water first?
;)
Cobra,
"(needs a clean DMV)."
Kinda one of the problems with guys like that. They tend to over power their cars and get in trouble.
Also tend to drink a bit on Fridays.
Ah well. Good ASE's are always in demand.
Cheers,
bluestatedon
same here, in part a function of driving men out of teaching profession. Via child abuse witch hunts, pity..
Dang, it felt good taking profits on TWM this morning but then not so good as Mother Market barfed up another 100+ points!
Anyone here like BAC at this price or is sub-$20 on the menu? I figure if push comes to shove they won't cut the divy by >%50, which at these levels still gives a 5% yield.
So the powers that be will continue to randomly rearrange the crystals in the pylon hoping that will take us back? Yeah, that'll help when the Slestacks are after you.
I guess you shouldn't have based your monetary system on flawed mathematics. See you punks on the otherside!
"now lets see, do i need to turn off the water first?"
;)
5) as long as you're at it, you might just as well replace the closet valve;
6) if you're going to replace the closet valve, one of those sexy new flexible supply lines would be nice;
7) don't forget to clean up after yourself, or your other half will be really pissed;
Have fun!
Dryfly - thanks for the info - I've been a "scientific programmer" at a university and am looking to broaden my skills. Years ago I knew a guy who traveled all over the US doing what I assume was "process control programming" . He did very well for himself and family. I'll give it a shot.
KindaScared,
"Anyone here like BAC at this price or is sub-$20 on the menu?"
If the BofA, USB Dodd Banksters Bailout Bill fails...then yes.
Cheers,
I believe the financial markets are at a point equivalent to the moment in the movie, Dr. Strangelove, when Major Kong [Slim Pickens] leaves the cockpit and starts heading back to the bomb bay.
Dr. Strangemoney: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Credit Bubble
You know what the universe does with organisms that think everything is going to be just fine? It weeds them out. Andy Grove was right.
KindaScared,
Since you posted, you are looking for advice.
I would keep away from BAC and financials in general. This is because the sector, like the home builders and home related stuff is not in demand. Think of technology in 2001. There is definitely a good time to buy after some resistance to downside in spite of bad news but that time has not come yet. This is my opinion. Also, I have found to be careful of stock advice from other people. Get ideas from others, but go with your gut and mind.
Good luck!
Believe me, there are plenty of days that being a tree-trimmer looks like a step up.
excuse me but that is "arborist" thank you. And being a fair tree-pruner but lousy business man, I would guess you need good business skills to make the tree company succeed. If I had the business skills, I wouldn't be boxing cheese as there is plenty of tree work out there.
Ouch .. Nikkei opened down 2%
"Ouch .. Nikkei opened down 2%"
Ah, the joy is spreading across the globe tonight.
Nikkei opened down 1.6%, is now down 2.46%, keeps drifting down.
Michael,
Thanks, I hear you on the financials. For some reason I couldn't help taking a taste of BAC today just below $25, even though the bulk of my bets are puts on the consumer discretionaries(WGO, I love you!).
"Also tend to drink a bit on Fridays."
Cheers,
Misean | 06.26.08 - 8:29 pm | #
And pretty much this is the only true disqualifier. Most shops can't afford the liability insurance and driving of customers cars...
Chris
I think that BAC will buy CFC and offload the liabilities straight to the Fed and say- if you don't like it we will bk and blow it up anyway. How would like your banking system? Fried or baked?
Bingo - the only explanation for this insane deal going through is that they've already gotten assurances from the Fed, along the lines of, "don't worry, we'll give you T-bills for all CFC's toxic waste."
Only one problem for BoA - the Fed can assume their financial liabilities, but not their legal ones. Should BoA fail, will Illinois and California (along with the other 48 states) sue the Fed?
tranches of like writes:
Ipodius, I agree with much of what you say, but IF someone recommends a specific investment (and offers their own compelling reasons) that lines up with my own research/learning, I'm going to take a look at it. You wouldn't?
tranches of like | 06.26.08 - 8:28 pm | #
Well, I gave my recommendation here back in Feb-it's up 40% since then. And it's not a double-secret ultrashort whatchamacallit. Still room on the upside IMO, but do your own DD. Too many posts here today to read...
Banker: i'm a POS broker/developer/builder so this spring i learned how to garden and made a 120sqft victory garden.
Whip Inflation Now - Plant a Garden
You can probably find some buttons on eBay.
Ben says "Thanks!"
Meanwhile, I'm about to move assets out of oil and into ladybug and praying mantis suppliers in an attempt to front-run congress. Hope everybody is holding their gold overseas. Suckers.
Taxes are also a big factor in the Countrywide deal. Huge writeoffs for Bank of America.
The economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2008, taking it halfway to what many commentators expect will be a technical recession - two quarterly declines in a row.
NZ economy half way to recession, cool the other half is going to be more fun, the fear is tangible here, capitulation in housing just around the corner...
So how do you trade Fed Rate futures because I do not see any raises this year contrary to what they say?
mp, correct me if I'm wrong but BoA can only get the tax write off if they have some actual profits to offset.
Not so sure how that's gonna work out for them ...
4822 writes:
Dryfly - thanks for the info - I've been a "scientific programmer" at a university and am looking to broaden my skills. Years ago I knew a guy who traveled all over the US doing what I assume was "process control programming" . He did very well for himself and family. I'll give it a shot.
4822 | 06.26.08 - 8:33 pm | #
Are you the commenter always plugging nuclear yes/no? (Sorry if wrong - so many here I lose track) BUT IF SO - look into that specifically. There are two nuke plants in Minnesota & some of the 'controls people' I know work there - they tell me they are desperate for controls people - all the old ones are retiring & they aren't shutting these suckers down anytime soon (and inevitably they will be building more).
As far as discrete mfg systems go - my stuff - they do fly controls people all over the world - but it gets old. I have another friend who has started up a couple plants in Asia (China) - the controls people all but live there until the locals can run it by themselves. Then they stay married to them via Blackberry. Its not the 'book learning' that crosses the locals up - its the practical application in plant.
It was no different when I was a plant/process engineer. In a generation they'll know more 'practical' than us unless we build more plants here & hire our own young'uns to run them.
central_scrutinizer, Bank of Fees just starting treating city parking charges as a cash advance with a charge of $10. Bank of Fees will just keep raising fees until they lose all their customers.
Central_Scrutinizer, see:
Bank of America's Countrywide Tab Signed by Taxpayers (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
My guess is in a year the threads here will be filled with stories about unemployment, retraining, and rage.
There will also be a few smug people talking about their gardens, savings, and general righteousness.
The following year will bring the stories with the real pain. The sucide, divorce, and hopelessness of friends and posters.
Oh, and a few stories about how their gardens were invaded by hungry people late at night.
What is meant by "Lord of the Dark Matter"?
MoT
I liked the old days of a little brown envelope of cash on payday.
maybe a cash society will straighten out the banks model.
Japan's annual consumer inflation accelerated to a decade-high in May on surging energy costs, and household spending dipped as the job market stagnated, darkening the outlook for the world's second-largest economy.
UPDATE 3-Japan consumer inflation hits 10-yr high
| Reuters
Happy happy joy joy.
According to Marketwatch.com: General Motors shares drop 11%, touching lows not seen since the early 1970s, after Goldman Sachs tells its clients to unload their positions in the face of the deteriorating automotive climate.
Now, I've read several different years given for the lows GM has reached, 1955 being the earliest. Can anyone verify this for certain - I don't have charts that go back that far. TIA.
Yeah, I know, it's pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things; GM will be BK probably before end of summer. But it may come up in discussion w/ others over the weekend.
Dryfly --- 'Are you the commenter always plugging nuclear yes/no? (Sorry if wrong - so many here I lose track) BUT IF SO - look into that specifically. There are two nuke plants in Minnesota & some of the 'controls people' I know work there - they tell me they are desperate for controls people - all the old ones are retiring & they aren't shutting these suckers down anytime soon (and inevitably they will be building more).'
Yes, that's me...thanks for the tips and I'll follow up on them!
Rupert writes:
What is meant by "Lord of the Dark Matter"?
What's great about teh Google is that if you search w/ that string, it all refers back to this discussion!
Dryfly: Is there a big market for PLC (programmable logic controller) programmers in manufacturing/industry?
This is one of the things I do, or rather used to do before moving on to running the projects and other less quantifiable things.
The answer is, generally, no. There is work in it, and I have made my living in the automation and controls business. However, there is not a ton of work outside of the system integrators, because manufacturers below a certain size don't need to maintain anyone on staff, and will call the integrators in for modifications or if there's an issue.
When you meet small plant PLC programmers, they tend to be either the electrician or the site electrical engineer. In both cases they grew into the job and expertise will vary.
Good PLC programming is about skill (programming) knowledge (of the process and operations) and trust (because you can really cause problems). It's something that's developed, and it typically takes me about four or so years to onboard someone to a point where they're really worth something on their own.
My experience is biotech, oil and gas, pulp and paper, steam and power generation, flame safety, and water treatment. Assembly-line manufacturing may be slight different. I plan to find out - moving to Dryfly's neck of the woods (MN) soon and need a job.
funny thing about my garden. if you take the cost of the materials (raised bed)(new soil)(soil amendment)(soil steriods)(seedlings)(my billing rate)(lost utility of 'rec' time) and my tomatoes have GOT to be the most expensive tomatoes ever grown.
ever.
EVER
ipodius:
No, I don't make it a habit of taking investment advice from handles on the net, but I do pay attention and see if they make sense.
I went into RWM (Russell 2K) on own after reviewing all kinds of stuff. I have a great deal of fun reading, learning and making something work. Like reading and reviewing what I did on a 30 year ago job in order to pour a concrete walkway/stairway for my wife. Like reading up on what has to happen to finish a basement, which will happen with my son.
The garden? Read up on that and prepped - took down fencing, trees and etc and then wound up in hospital for a week. Still, will make it happen next year.
I've got friends who are getting royally screwed by their financial adviser, and I've had to fire such in the past myself.
I can't do any worse (and frankly, I haven't).
Yours in due diligence.
"What is meant by 'Lord of the Dark Matter?'"
Rupert, repent while there is still time.
With the run-up in petroleum, coal is moving up dramatically. Moved into JRCC in March 2008, a good run that hasn't topped out. Look at this and minors with proven/good reserves of low sulfur coal. With the dramatic rise in natural gas, many power plants burning coal are more comperetive than those burning natural gas. Got to love that run-up......
Best To All
Bruce
The 'Lord Of The Dark Matter' is a friend of Flecks that obviously has excellent info on the credit markets. Dark Matter refers to the 'stuff' in banks and I-Banks portfolios. You can prove it is there, you just can't see it...or value it.
dryfly: There are two nuke plants in Minnesota & some of the 'controls people' I know work there - they tell me they are desperate for controls people - all the old ones are retiring & they aren't shutting these suckers down anytime soon (and inevitably they will be building more).
You haven't lived until you have driven a square wave through a capacitor with fourier control. I would be a lot happier if Bernanke had majored in something like stochastic systems control. Instead he spent a lot of time computing the correlation of economic recovery time in various countries to how quickly they dropped the gold standard. And to think, his work is the gold standard in depression era economic thought? Oh well, as long as he is a coward, I'll be making the money at the poker table. Of course, I feel sorry for him. It is hard to jawbone when everybody knows your hand.
Nova:
Had a neighbor that had a huge Xmas display in yard and had problems with folks ripping off the creche figures.
He set up a laser/motion detector on the front, hooked to a really loud car alarm. He's one of the ones that Dryfly is talking about re ability to make things work - guy is frigging brilliant.
Worked like a charm.
Can work for a garden too.
On a lark, I went to look up advertised mortgage rates on finance.yahoo.com
So for 20% down payment 30 fixed, on $500k or $1M loan (doesn't seem to matter to the engine) some examples:
AimLoan: 7.000%, 2 points + $2,000
NBGI: 6.375%, 1 point + $0.00
Quicken: 7.375% 1.750 points + $1,400
Bofa: 8.875% 1 point + $3,500
Citi: 8.500% 1 point + $3,500
Wells Fargo: 8.250% 1 point + $2,500
Miss that? 8.875% 1 point + $3,500
Find Mortgage,Home Equity,Auto and Savings Rates on Yahoo! Personal Finance
"What is meant by 'Lord of the Dark Matter?'"
Bill fleckenstein has a daily newsletter (private) and also a biweekly column (free). the column is on moneycentral.msn.com.
The "Lord of the Dark Matter" is his friend who works in the financial matter.
"dark matter" is Fleck's nickname for the various banking creations. sort of like a black whole... you know it exists but have no way of evaluating it.
his column is definitely worth a read. He's been predicting a lot of this stuff for a long time.
the guys who tip him have been eerily prescient... (sometimes his tips prelude major market drops just by a few days)
oops: others answered while I was doodling.
My experience is biotech, oil and gas, pulp and paper, steam and power generation, flame safety, and water treatment. Assembly-line manufacturing may be slight different. I plan to find out - moving to Dryfly's neck of the woods (MN) soon and need a job.
callous | 06.26.08 - 9:04 pm | #
There is a lot of 'process industry' still here so you should find something - let us know how it goes.
We always preferred trip wire set at 12" and 12 ga shotgun shell blanks loaded in a trip drop fixture nailed to a tree. People trying to snatch the yard ornament will literally shit their pants. Good source is the Fall and Spring adventure in Knob Creek Kentucky. Google Knob Creek Range.
Bruce
PPT will be working overtime tomorrow--dow up 200-300.
I think I'll rent a U-haul truck tommorrow and max out my credit cards before they lower my limits. The pull out ramps on the trucks are great for loading up shopping carts full of food.
dc1000,
Get the wax ring with the rubber flange -
Put the hanger bolts in the metal flange - the plastic washers are used to hold these bolts in place - if you toss the washers press the bolts into the sides of the wax ring to hold em in place
Don't overtighten the hanger bolts - if you crack the bowl you'll be pissed.
Take some plaster of paris and mix it to a toothpaste consistency. Run a bead between the toilet and the floor and smooth with your finger. Makes it look pro and keeps any gas from leaking if you didn't get a good seal with the wax ring.
I am a bit of a history junkie. When events hit a major inflection point you get the larger than life people.
The ones that come out of nowhere to shape and ride the power of the change. Sometimes they are good. Most times they leave a legacy of blood, graveyards, and new borders.
Where are they? Thats my indication of a bottom. When the giants of the future show up and take center stage is when I will know the next chapter has begun.
Where are they? Thats my indication of a bottom. When the giants of the future show up and take center stage is when I will know the next chapter has begun.
Nova | 06.26.08 - 9:34 pm | #
But I don't want to live in interesting times...
The Lord of the Dark Matter last surfaced (according to the Google) in the last week of July 2007, just before the bad stuff hit the fan. The next two weeks may be an interesting time in the markets.
Today's Hegelian superman? A Napolean, Teddy Roosevelt, or FDR?
Some have a particular person in mind, but I don't want to start a political pissing contest.
But I don't want to live in interesting times...
It is always interesting times for 2/3's of the world population.
The next two weeks may be an interesting time in the markets.
Hmmm... got RBS?
And giants don't have to be native American English speakers, either.
Where are they? Thats my indication of a bottom. When the giants of the future show up and take center stage is when I will know the next chapter has begun.
Kevin Costner (e.g. The Postman, Waterworld, etc.)
Heroes have been outsourced to India.
Eli Manning will likely be a Giant for years to come.
mp, thanks for the link.
BoA's real problem is going to be legal, not financial liabilities. An earlier Bloomberg article stated that after the deal goes through, BoA is planning to put a "firewall" between themselves and all the toxic waste from Countrywide, by creating a separate LLC (Red Oak Company.)
After the merger, "Red Oak" whatever they decide to call it can file for bankruptcy, or better yet get dumped in the Fed's driveway after midnight, like a corpse. Then BoA gets to drive away with the plunder.
However, the Illinois and California lawsuits were astutely filed before the merger goes through. A prior legal action cannot avoided by sweeping all of Countrywide's liabilities into a separate legal entity. Let's see how many other states get in on the action before Tuesday - I predict its gonna be an all-nighter in the Massachusetts and NY AG offices tonight through Tuesday AM.
This will come back to haunt BoA. I predict that eventually the states will reach some settlement with the Feds and BoA in the interest of not bankrupting the largest bank in the country, and possibly establishing a funding source for future bailouts, kind of like the tobacco settlement.
In the meantime, short BoA into the mid-teens.
Nova: When the giants of the future show up ...
Sabina Spielrein (1885 - 1942)
crispy&cole writes:
But Ken Fisher said last year "there were no credit issues, go long"
careful c&c , you'll be accused of being the alter-ego t-8
JH Kunstler is looking smarter by the day.
By...the...day.
Funny how everyone laughs and mocks him...until they stop laughing
Dipped my toe in the water with srs, sds, and a few others recently and today it felt like a good move. But frankly, the financial devices used to short the indexes are troubling and I probably won't hang onto these stocks for long. Does anyone else have similar misgivings about proshares?
When will it ever be safe to be back in the indexes again, or will it continue to stink, stink, stink? It's funny there's a toilet installation thread going on here simultaneously. Can we swap this outhouse of a market for a toilet, please?
New thread on IMB and Schumer
Does anyone else have similar misgivings about proshares?
Most definitely. 72.50 on SDS and I'm out. After that I'll make my money the old-fashioned way.
Anyone else burning bowls and enjoying the show?
Currently Smoking Cannabis
are your initials en?
mock turtle writes:
Scotty: captain, the matter-antimater engines cant take much more o this.
...
I prefer the Next Generation version of the situation:
YouTube - Best TNG intro
Funny how everyone laughs and mocks him...until they stop laughing
Kunstler's return-to-eden dystopia is neglecting one important factor -- the amount of income each of us throws at land rents.
In times of economic stress, land rents can & will take the hit.
If taxes go up 20%, energy goes up 20%, health care goes up 20%, food goes up 20%, if land rents go down 10% the consumer is still in the game.
It is always interesting times for 2/3's of the world population.
Nova | 06.26.08 - 9:42 pm | #
Isn't that the truth.
Ron Paul for President. Bill Fleckenstein for Treasurer and Ben Bernanke for inmate of the year.
Central_Scrutinizer, I hear you, but I am completely on the sidelines now insofar as the market is concerned.
A while back I posted a piece from Minyanville on the proshares ETFs explaining their underperformance. Considering the market so far this year, they have actually done pretty poorly.
If you're one of those unpatriotic types who feels obliged to short rather than just being in cash, you're better off with a straight up short.
I think I'll rent a U-haul truck tommorrow and max out my credit cards before they lower my limits.
Speaking of credit cards...
The debt paper that is being offered, with no bids... some of that is bundling of credit card debt, yes ?
If so, how long is the distance between the charge at Walmart and the card issuer running into a brick wall trying to offload the debt ?
Is it possible that some cards just might stop working ?
Yeah, I know, it's pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things; GM will be BK probably before end of summer. But it may come up in discussion w/ others over the weekend.
I just went and looked at the 1Q08 results for GM.
They had 1Q revenue of $42 billion, an operating loss of a little under $600 million, and have $23 billion in cash on hand. But, they currently have $40 billion more in liabilities than in assets, so I suppose it's possible to see a bankruptcy. But I'm not so sure about that.
I would bet that Chrysler goes bankrupt.
dc1000-
Careful taking all that toilette advice from "anonymous on-line sources" ;^)
I'm taking notes, but staying on the sidelines for now.
p.s. actually I haven't had to do a replacement by myself, but it does seem like one of those times RTFM would be a good idea.
Also have misgivings, although I've held on to srs and skf.
But I don't want to live in interesting times...
dryfly | 06.26.08 - 9:40 pm
You don'thave to want to... you just have to...
Funny how many folks here have programmed PLC's at some point, eh?
In a plug for doing hands-on plus the theory ...
I grew up making fun of engineers ... now I am one(14 years now), and I'm still making fun of them. Our universities are graduating a majority of civil engineers who have never seen rebar or mixed concrete and electrical engineers who've never heard of a PLC and don't know which terminal screws on a duplex receptacle are hot and neutral without looking at the instructions. Educated folks with even a modicum of a clue about the practical side of things are invaluable.
dc1000
ha ha about the expensive tomatoes.
Let me tell you about the cheap way for me. First watch for the grass clipping for compost and mulch. Folks pay dear prices for lawn service folks to grow good grass and then set it out for the trash. You get mulch and potential compost, all ready bagged up and ready to toss in the old pickup or SUV depending on economic level.
Next buy cheap store brand garden fertilizer. Now I grow in containers, BIG containers, the kind trees and big bushes come in. I put in on a recycling list and got 50 free. Put grass clipping in bottom 2/3 and cheap store brand bagged soil in top 1/3 for plants. No real work or need for power equipment. And grow from seeds. A tomato plant costs 1-5$ each. A pack of seed costs 1-2$ for 100 seeds. Ditto for all the vegies. I grow off the wall stuff so I use seeds anyway.
Recycle vegie seeds, for the most part a fruit has 100 seeds that can be dried and used.
Yea always love watching rich folks try gardening to save money.
"If you're one of those unpatriotic types who feels obliged to short rather than just being in cash, you're better off with a straight up short.
Aheadofthecurve"
You're an idiot. My SDS is up over 30% in 7 months. Can't beat it with a short that would have an unlimited loss.
Didn't you claim to be the bottom when you showed up last week? Come back when the real bottom is in. Idiot.
Maria always starts the After the Bell broadcast with that annoying "Do you know where your money is?" line. The upcoming conflagration will give true meaning to that.
There is no liquidity. Banks and non banks like GE are cutting off every credit line to save their credit. However, they will cut to everyone including their good customers. I tried to touch my GE Credit line for an advance and was denied even though the credit line has no debt, has never been late, and I have good credit. The answer after I ran through a new credit check (yes a new credit check) was that I have too much debt. I agreed that I do but they still would not let me consolidate any credit on that line. At least, I will get a free credit report.
Funny thing is that I have already paid off 20 % of my debt and should have another 20% paid off by January. In two years, I will pay off all my debt. Also, I don't have a house and my wife's car is paid off in one year.
So .. the dark lord is very correct. Everyone good and bad will be treated the same with a liquidity reduction. I suspect it will do wonders for the US economy.
The essential BofA fairytale is the quake of '06 and a wheelbarrow of cash. That was then, this is now: semi's from the Fed to haul the stinkerpoop away --
"Well, lookie here, dear, we don't owe a thing." 
Promotional brochure for a first Annual Tour of Ben's Bandage Co. ('Screw you, you bunch of pansies, you should have tapped in too.')
Buy small farmhouse on small acreage (at 3x our salaries). Buy small cow & small bull (they make beef babies and milk). Use cow poop to fertilize garden. Let cows mow most of the acreage and plant edibles on the rest. Swap homebrew/eggs/butter for winter hay & rototiller useage from neighbors. Buy 10 hens, build small coop. Let hens free range in barnyard. Get state job with full bennies, both of us, no kids. Sell eggs & meat to co-workers.
Meat, milk, fertilizer, eggs, produce, etc.
Backyard farming on 1.25 acres!
This has been building in Europe for some weeks. I always wondered how it would have felt to be at ground zero in October of 1929.
Any Ideas on what BB is thinking on how he is going to raise the bottom?
"JH Kunstler is looking smarter by the day.
By...the...day.
Wasn't Kunstler the one that predicted a Dow of 4000 for the year 2006 ?
I don't know how many of you are watching BBC World for the eveningly world financial update. It's talking about how the Asian Markets are taking a serious hit in Friday trading.
The Hang Seng is looking really ugly down almost 500 points.
In many, if not most market crashes, there is a period where something (stocks, bonds, homes, MBS) are offered for sale... but there are no buyers, period.
Really now? If there are no buyers, how can there be a crash? Because if there are no buyers, there are no sales, and if there are no sales, there is no price movement.
Has there ever been a time in the post-WWII era where there hasn't been an active bid for every stock on the NYSE? Except for companies that have become insolvent of course.
Even for housing, which is the most illiquid major asset, there are always buyers in any viable market (i.e. except central Detroit, etc). It's just a matter of price.
Uncle Sam was strolling through Arlington National one night.
In a fog from a few beers, he tripped
on a low marker and threw out his knee.
Help me; I've fallen, and I can't get up !
But all he heard was a deathly silence.
...
I know the color of BB's underwear without having looked myself.
Off the wall question:
Over the last several days, there have been articles about states suing or threatening to sue Countrywide for violating state lending laws.
If Bank of America buys Countrywide, can Countrywide call in the Comptroller of the Currency to claim federal preemption and force the states to back off?
If this is possible, will the states block the BofA takeover of Countryfried in order to preserve the rights of the states to sue Countrywide? Is this why BofA is rushing the merger? Are they trying to get the deal down before the state attorney generals get all their ducks in a row?
Any lawyers have useful perspectives on this?
A while back I posted a piece from Minyanville on the proshares ETFs explaining their underperformance
?
6mo chart shows SDS is tracking the index 2X reasonably well.
But my broker was telling me it's all priced in.
States are trying to shake down Countrywide for acceptable business practices, BofA (and JPM) will be the only banks throwing off free cash due to size and check 21(unless #1 bank become coffee can in the back yard)
The whole sector is getting hammered and the float is big enough to not worry about getting squeezed, so it's worth taking a short, but BofA & JPM are the only 2 banks I'd be looking to go long on before reporting week in July.
I would concur - except for the very liquid ones, such as DXD/DDM, SDS/SSO, the double-dare ETFs seem to be marked to fantasy.
I also watched on L2 a couple of days ago when I was starting to cover stuff...
FXP was trading something like 82.47/82.55. I watched someone put in a market order to sell 50 shares. Someone dropped the bid $4.50, stole him, then popped it right back up to 82.50.
Never, never, never put in a market order to do anything. Especially with ProShares.
You're an idiot. My SDS is up over 30% in 7 months. Can't beat it with a short that would have an unlimited loss.
Didn't you claim to be the bottom when you showed up last week? Come back when the real bottom is in. Idiot.
Anonymous | 06.26.08 - 11:41 pm | #
I would never call a bottom in anything except your intelligence. Those who follow this site know that I don't attempt to predict "the market", only a limited number of individual stocks.
I've done well enough to be retired at 50. Hope you can say the same.
dc1000 the other advice I'll give you re: toilets is buy 3-4 wax seals. If one gets cracked it sucks to have to head out right then to get it, and if you don't need them, then just return them for full value next time you're around.
On my first toilet I needed the 2nd seal, and was glad I followed that advice.
The only solution is The Plan:- The ONLY Way to defeat the NWO.
This is maybe not a good theory, but someone might be able to comment on this. I'm wondering if these financial crises are happening from the big switch to pension funds and similar investments rather than pensions.
Previously a recession probably occured when speculators went too far and they lost their money back to the point of where those assets should have appreciated according to inflation. So the real estate market would normally appreciated at around inflation and if it went above that in a bubble then it normally had to return to that inflation line.
Normally these speculators were more wealthy than the average and they also owned stocks like banks, etc and so in a recession the wealthier people lost money they had not really gained in legitimate investments.
But now with so many pension funds it is equivalent to the old story of everyone investing in the stock market before the great depression except now your pension fund is doing it for you. So instead of Americans not saving they are in effect saving too much through all these funds.
When all these fund chase higher returns this money ends up in bubbles and they bid up the prices of real estate, stocks, commodities, etc until it crashes and they as a group lose about what they gained. They lose this because they were not productive investments just pension funds bidding against each other.
So as a bubble crashes then the average person doesn't really gain or lose much because their pension fund goes down in value, but this is irrelevant until they retire. The bubbles created by this however disrupt the average person's life by bidding the price of real estate, commodities and distorting the market. So as the pension funds make money for their clients those same clients are losing money by paying more for the consequences of the bubble their own retirement needs created.
As another example people got mortgages they couldn't pay off and that mortgage was sold off to their own pension fund. In effect a loan against their own future retirement they couldn't pay off. However the value of their pensions might drop from this, but soon they will be able to buy the same house much cheaper, so they gain as their retirement fund loses. So at first the pension fund rises but it also raises their cost of living, then it falls and the cost of living falls as well. At the moment pension funds might be making money for people on oil but it is coming from their own clients in higher fuel prices.
So instead of a recession cleaning up excess speculation it no longer does this because their retirement funds just keep building more bubbles to get back their losses from the last one. Even a recession or depression would not stop this market chaos from continuing.
«Dryfly: Is there a big market for PLC (programmable logic controller) programmers in manufacturing/industry?»
Sure there is, just choose the right country where mnaufacturing is booming (hint: not the USA).
«When all these fund chase higher returns this money ends up in bubbles and they bid up the prices of real estate, stocks, commodities, etc until it crashes and they as a group lose about what they gained. They lose this because they were not productive investments just pension funds bidding against each other. So as a bubble crashes then the average person doesn't really gain or lose much because their pension fund goes down in value, but this is irrelevant until they retire. The bubbles created by this however disrupt the average person's life by bidding the price of real estate, commodities and distorting the market. So as the pension funds make money for their clients those same clients are losing money by paying more for the consequences of the bubble their own retirement needs created.»
Yes and no -- stock-invested pension accounts are in effect as Grover Norquist argued so well a device to ensure permanently high stock prices, or more precisely to allow "old money" and fee-based earners (both Republican campaign donors) to profit from unloading stuff to rubes at high prices and earn a lot on churn at the same time.
Whether some purchasing is done directly or indirectly matters a great deal to the wealth of vast swathes of Republican campaign donors.
«As another example people got mortgages they couldn't pay off and that mortgage was sold off to their own pension fund. In effect a loan against their own future retirement they couldn't pay off. However the value of their pensions might drop from this, but soon they will be able to buy the same house much cheaper, so they gain as their retirement fund loses. So at first the pension fund rises but it also raises their cost of living, then it falls and the cost of living falls as well.»
But oh please this is not the same people who lose and gain, reasoning too much like this in the aggregate obscures the very profound distributional impacts this has, and never mind the colossal amount diverted into fees and bonuses for the pension fund managers.
«At the moment pension funds might be making money for people on oil but it is coming from their own clients in higher fuel prices.»
And this is a clear example of a high distributional impact here too: fund managers reap colossal fees and bonuses, oil producers enjoy the higher prices, and the clients see paper gains that will not hold in the aggregate, and the non-clients (e.g. young or poor workers) funds most of the above.
"But oh please this is not the same people who lose and gain, reasoning too much like this in the aggregate obscures the very profound distributional impacts this has, and never mind the colossal amount diverted into fees and bonuses for the pension fund managers."
Blissex, normally they are not the same people but may be around the same kinds of people as far as income and assets. There is a strong distributional aspect but now there is a new force in the markets, where people's pension funds are ripping off their own contributors. Some would obviously do better than others, but many funds would have around the same performance levels.
So if they make roughly the same returns on investments for these pension funds then who are they maing this money from but their own clients? The rich are usually too clever to make money out of and as you say they make money from fees of all this churning.
As in the Matrix, everything that has a beginning has an end in bubbles. But in this case there may be no end, just pension funds exploiting workers to make them more moeny for their own retirement. Eventually this churn would stop as it shook the economy apart and fees ate up more and more capital, but a recession would only increase this churn as mension funds tried to catch up.
So for example if they are behind the commodity boom they are hurting the workers in a new way after ruining their housing market. If these pension funds did not exist then would not have been the demand for sub prime bonds and the easy credit that followed from them.