othing but bad news all around and the still, yes, still, the DOW does not crash. This just goes to prove what I have been saying since BSC bailout. There really isn't any fear in the market yet. The VIX is still low compared to March 08.
When one compnay blinks and heads for the door, i.e. goldman et al, then, the fun will begin.
"Usually consumer sentiment surveys tell you what you already know, and sentiment is heavily impacted by gasoline prices, but these are still pretty stunning numbers."
Yeah, it's true, I'm pretty stunned to find out how stunned I am...
most consumers don't have a clue about what is really happening in the economy. They're just too busy trying to keep their heads above water and payin' the man.
Randy -
I agree - the VIX should be spiking on whats going on in the credit markets. I suspect it will in the next couple weeks.
We're getting very close to having a large financial insitution fail.
The fall in the index was due to weaker readings in measures of stock prices, housing activity and money supply growth, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, in an instant message interview.
The index's annualized growth rate edged down to negative 6.0 percent from minus 5.8 percent a week earlier.
"The Weekly Leading Index fell for the fifth time in six weeks, while its growth rate dipped to a five-week low," Achuthan said. "Despite hopes for an imminent recovery, the WLI remains in recession territory."
I wanted to tell my way of getting liquid and trying to survive the coming currency/worldwide depression. I bought 40 acres about two years ago and cashed out my pension from my old company. I got a job selling/buying produce at a local company in a small town and started immediately raising chickens, turkeys and pigs.
I have a nice pond with fish and two water wells. The house is not too old and is very livable with some upgrades that Janie my wife of 31 years wants to do.
I am 50 years old and used to invest in gold and silver but now I invest in my mind and try to educate myself on the real intelligence of living in a drought, warm winters, harsh springs with late freezes etc. I have 125 fruit trees that I give the fruit off of to my elderly and infirm and poor members of my Kingdom Hall
The silver and gold I invested in cost some to buy, some to hold, and some to sell and some to be taxed on so I ended up with a lot less than what the market went up and I thought I would make. My point is it is hard to invest in gold and silver bullion unless your willing to let someone else either hold your money or your physical asset.
Although chicken/ poultry do not go up and down in price very much they are useful to have around. My point here is the utility of an asset is sometimes very different than its actual cash value. Having said this the problem is most people who try this way need to live this out in reality for a while because preadators usually end up getting a lot of your fowl and until you learn the ropes it can become frustrating as coyotes, bobcats and others are already adept at living off the land. The same can be said with trying to garden or raise fruit. Each has its own challenges that must be lived through to actually have real world knowledge to actually make a work.
Having a house paid off, acres of land that can grow fruits and vegetables, and 89 Ford 150 to haul the wood that I cut and a very happy wife I don't have very much stress. Reading the internet most if not all of the bears think in terms of them having money from other people pain is going to be a consequence of the future but I am not so sure that the money they have is going to be able to buy things that must be produced with work.
I very much enjoy your articles and as have traveled in all of the US I would encourage your readers to think in terms of how they would not only survive the coming downturn but be seen as a rock in a frothy sea of turmoil. Young people especially are going to need guidance.
Maybe I am unrealistic to think that all things may go back to being local but it sure seems that if things breakdown that things you can touch, talk to , utilized to help others, will be more useful to you in the near future than money. Just my two cents worth.
My reading list is mostly Doug Noland, Douglas Gnazzo, yourself, William Enghdahl, Adrian Ash, Bill Bonner, Bob Hoye, and I really think Enrico Orlandini has a lot of good points from a worldwide perspective of living in what may be the future of the U. S.
Just a short term problem. If energy prices stay where they are pretty soon we'll have no consumers - ergo no consumer survey - ergo no consumer sentiment. Ergo no problem.
I read a while back that most americans were 2 paychecks away from homelessness.I suspect the increase in food and fuel prices ate one of those checks.
You have a pond that you hope to use for fish, and you have chickens and pigs. Depending on ground-water flow, pig and chicken population and the distance involved, I think I might see a problem. Any chance the pond is up-hill from the livestock?
No in the county I live in you must get proper flow from your pond as 1/2 of the cost is paid by the county to hold water... they permit it after inspection..
the utility of an asset is sometimes very different than its actual cash value
Wish I had a farm, but since I live in the city, I have to do the next best thing. Yesterday, I hauled 15 garbage bags of groceries up three flights of stairs after a trip to a food wholesale warehouse. I have almost an entire year's worth of food stockpiled at this point.
I'm continuing to "go long" canned food...when you determine you can't eat your gold, come see me. I'm sure we can make a deal.
son-of-curtis, good for you. Too many people just don't have a clue how to take care of themselves. Heck, they don't know how to buy from someone other than the local supermarket and the Home Depot. Anyone who can actually make or fix stuff will always have work.
Grandpa told me that the depression in the part of Louisiana where he was from was no different than the good times... as a sharecropper he did not know the difference in money.. where he did know it was peoples attitude about the future.. here he said their was a sea change as most people in 1931-1932 just did not think things would ever get any better... so IMHO the greater depression coming will be one of a state of mind not one of economics. We live in natural resource blessed land but if we bemoan the loss of a cell phone, cable TV, and the ease of fast food... we will definitely be in a "depression"..their will still be beautiful sunrises and sunsets and many things to entertain us for free we will just have to adjust.. if we cannot then social strife will be here...
I have almost an entire year's worth of food stockpiled at this point.
Make sure you insect proof it.
I use doubled polyethylene sacks facing in opposite directions, with lots of food-grade DE and bay leaves in the inter-sack space and then in the storage bin.
Instead of only canned foods, i am contemplating the purchase of a kayak so that i can fish off shore while the landlubbers are fighting over space on the cliffside.
But I dont want to spend my stimulus check yet... its so warm in my pocketses...
I remember George McCovern had a platform that the government would send everyone a check each month. It was called communism then but now it's called republicanism.
Well,as bad is it is here in SW Florida,the parents had a tennant move out last week because he bought a house. A whole 70k for a 3/2/2. So I cleaned the place up,put the for rent sign up last night and low and behold I already have 4!!! calls to rent. All said they have the money to move in.
If you have rentals that aren't leveraged you are doing pretty good right now.
Kinda nice after struggling for two years against all the brand new places...
Yeah, southeastern Ok didn't really notice much difference between 1933 and 1923. You still had to hoe the corn and, if you missed, you didn't eat meat.
The Dow hasn't crashed because it never built in any terribly strong expectations of growth in the past decade. Even if you thought the economy was going to go into recession, are your long term expectations of total profits/production in nominal dollar terms really no higher than they were in 2000?
The S&P 500, as I've mentioned before, is at a P/E that is relatively low relative to the long term trend and which has fallen by half since the end of the bubble in 2002.
Farming. No thanks. You don't own livestock - they own you. To bad everyone in the house is sick with the flu and it is 20 below zero. They need to be feed.
Gardening? I have a big garden. It also owns you. Weeds never stop growing, and each tomato plant can drink a gallon of water a day in August.
I have been a bricklayers apprentice, loaded moving vans, a laborer, and worked on a farm. Nothing will kick your ass like farm work.
To be a farmer is to carry this huge specialized database around in your head. Being a farmer is some ways like being a concert level performer of music. You need to start at learning about it when you can walk.
The Mad Max scenario is not anything I look forward to. I like civilized life and the benefits of it. I do not want to shoot people over food. Nor do I have desire to live like my Great Grandparents. The women looked old at 35 for a reason. I would have already been dead for 7 years if I had lived back then.
Where do all these sour consumers live? Everyone I know is making good money, going out to eat whenever they want, driving nice cars, playing golf etc..
I use the Bay Area craigslist a lot. As in, probably more than I should. Example: A nice couch and a camera flash last week.
Following certain search terms for long periods using RSS feeds, I'm seeing that motorcycle sales seem to be quite slow. Now, maybe that's because everyone who wanted a motorcycle bought one in the West Coast Choppers / American Chopper days, but machines that normally held their value (like the Yamaha FJR-1300) sit for months at a great price.
Heaven help you if you decided you need to sell your recently purchased Italian bike.
Where do all these sour consumers live? Everyone I know is making good money, going out to eat whenever they want, driving nice cars, playing golf etc..
Hey, Boomer, I'm on my way. What are the directions?
Erste
othing but bad news all around and the still, yes, still, the DOW does not crash. This just goes to prove what I have been saying since BSC bailout. There really isn't any fear in the market yet. The VIX is still low compared to March 08.
When one compnay blinks and heads for the door, i.e. goldman et al, then, the fun will begin.
"A record number of consumers said their own finances had worsened, and inflation expectations are the highest since Feb 1982."
Meanwhile, a majority of homeowners surveyed said they thought the value of their homes had gone up in the last 2 years...
Are you better off than 4 years ago?
How about 8 ?
Do I hear 12 ?
"Usually consumer sentiment surveys tell you what you already know, and sentiment is heavily impacted by gasoline prices, but these are still pretty stunning numbers."
Yeah, it's true, I'm pretty stunned to find out how stunned I am...
most consumers don't have a clue about what is really happening in the economy. They're just too busy trying to keep their heads above water and payin' the man.
Maybe instead of tax rebates the Gov should send out Wright Model Bs to everyone.
Why don't Americans understand how good this economy is for them?
let's go ahead and have the crash so we can get on with picking up the pieces and fixin' the economy. just MHO.
Randy -
I agree - the VIX should be spiking on whats going on in the credit markets. I suspect it will in the next couple weeks.
We're getting very close to having a large financial insitution fail.
The fall in the index was due to weaker readings in measures of stock prices, housing activity and money supply growth, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, in an instant message interview.
The index's annualized growth rate edged down to negative 6.0 percent from minus 5.8 percent a week earlier.
"The Weekly Leading Index fell for the fifth time in six weeks, while its growth rate dipped to a five-week low," Achuthan said. "Despite hopes for an imminent recovery, the WLI remains in recession territory."
No imminent recovery for US economy - ECRI
| Reuters
I wanted to tell my way of getting liquid and trying to survive the coming currency/worldwide depression. I bought 40 acres about two years ago and cashed out my pension from my old company. I got a job selling/buying produce at a local company in a small town and started immediately raising chickens, turkeys and pigs.
I have a nice pond with fish and two water wells. The house is not too old and is very livable with some upgrades that Janie my wife of 31 years wants to do.
I am 50 years old and used to invest in gold and silver but now I invest in my mind and try to educate myself on the real intelligence of living in a drought, warm winters, harsh springs with late freezes etc. I have 125 fruit trees that I give the fruit off of to my elderly and infirm and poor members of my Kingdom Hall
The silver and gold I invested in cost some to buy, some to hold, and some to sell and some to be taxed on so I ended up with a lot less than what the market went up and I thought I would make. My point is it is hard to invest in gold and silver bullion unless your willing to let someone else either hold your money or your physical asset.
Although chicken/ poultry do not go up and down in price very much they are useful to have around. My point here is the utility of an asset is sometimes very different than its actual cash value. Having said this the problem is most people who try this way need to live this out in reality for a while because preadators usually end up getting a lot of your fowl and until you learn the ropes it can become frustrating as coyotes, bobcats and others are already adept at living off the land. The same can be said with trying to garden or raise fruit. Each has its own challenges that must be lived through to actually have real world knowledge to actually make a work.
Having a house paid off, acres of land that can grow fruits and vegetables, and 89 Ford 150 to haul the wood that I cut and a very happy wife I don't have very much stress. Reading the internet most if not all of the bears think in terms of them having money from other people pain is going to be a consequence of the future but I am not so sure that the money they have is going to be able to buy things that must be produced with work.
I very much enjoy your articles and as have traveled in all of the US I would encourage your readers to think in terms of how they would not only survive the coming downturn but be seen as a rock in a frothy sea of turmoil. Young people especially are going to need guidance.
Maybe I am unrealistic to think that all things may go back to being local but it sure seems that if things breakdown that things you can touch, talk to , utilized to help others, will be more useful to you in the near future than money. Just my two cents worth.
My reading list is mostly Doug Noland, Douglas Gnazzo, yourself, William Enghdahl, Adrian Ash, Bill Bonner, Bob Hoye, and I really think Enrico Orlandini has a lot of good points from a worldwide perspective of living in what may be the future of the U. S.
Just a short term problem. If energy prices stay where they are pretty soon we'll have no consumers - ergo no consumer survey - ergo no consumer sentiment. Ergo no problem.
From the Reuters story, "Meanwhile, the index of current personal finances fell to 69 in June -- the lowest on record -- from 80 in May."
Wow! Time to start buying Main Street and dump Wall Street.
Hey son-of-curtis... you can't be living too well if you can't afford to use all your commas.
Well, thank glod the average person makes $200,000 a year (at least, according to GOP and mass media pundits) or we'd be in a real mess right now.
I read a while back that most americans were 2 paychecks away from homelessness.I suspect the increase in food and fuel prices ate one of those checks.
So I am a bit English challenged...been away from school too long I guess...
RUT ROH! RUT REALLY ROLATILE!
son-of-curtis,
You have a pond that you hope to use for fish, and you have chickens and pigs. Depending on ground-water flow, pig and chicken population and the distance involved, I think I might see a problem. Any chance the pond is up-hill from the livestock?
No in the county I live in you must get proper flow from your pond as 1/2 of the cost is paid by the county to hold water... they permit it after inspection..
the utility of an asset is sometimes very different than its actual cash value
Wish I had a farm, but since I live in the city, I have to do the next best thing. Yesterday, I hauled 15 garbage bags of groceries up three flights of stairs after a trip to a food wholesale warehouse. I have almost an entire year's worth of food stockpiled at this point.
I'm continuing to "go long" canned food...when you determine you can't eat your gold, come see me. I'm sure we can make a deal.
son-of-curtis, good for you. Too many people just don't have a clue how to take care of themselves. Heck, they don't know how to buy from someone other than the local supermarket and the Home Depot. Anyone who can actually make or fix stuff will always have work.
I'm confident we will hit an all time low in about 6 months. Then about six months after that we will hit an unreachable low.
randy writes:
nothing but bad news all around and the still, yes, still, the DOW does not crash
It's happening. Wait for it.
Why are folks gloomy? In May, disposable personal income was up big time, personal consumption was up big time.
Recession averted.
Not.
Disgusting, how Pres. Bush, Paulson, Lazear, et al. are pushing consumption, when they should be promoting saving.
Good one, Elvis!
Still waiting for my pony... I think may have just enough space left in the freezer.
OT: Anyone tryed to sell anything besides a hybrid on Craigslist lately? I can't give stuff away these days.
Grandpa told me that the depression in the part of Louisiana where he was from was no different than the good times... as a sharecropper he did not know the difference in money.. where he did know it was peoples attitude about the future.. here he said their was a sea change as most people in 1931-1932 just did not think things would ever get any better... so IMHO the greater depression coming will be one of a state of mind not one of economics. We live in natural resource blessed land but if we bemoan the loss of a cell phone, cable TV, and the ease of fast food... we will definitely be in a "depression"..their will still be beautiful sunrises and sunsets and many things to entertain us for free we will just have to adjust.. if we cannot then social strife will be here...
I have almost an entire year's worth of food stockpiled at this point.
Make sure you insect proof it.
I use doubled polyethylene sacks facing in opposite directions, with lots of food-grade DE and bay leaves in the inter-sack space and then in the storage bin.
oh shit. i didn't realize i was that gloomy. huh.
Yeah... well what if you throw out all the years since 1980? They were outliers, then things don't look so bad.
Instead of only canned foods, i am contemplating the purchase of a kayak so that i can fish off shore while the landlubbers are fighting over space on the cliffside.
But I dont want to spend my stimulus check yet... its so warm in my pocketses...
I remember George McCovern had a platform that the government would send everyone a check each month. It was called communism then but now it's called republicanism.
Make sure you insect proof it.
Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way one time. Moths got in our rice, and the next thing we knew the house was swarming with flying critters.
That which is not canned is stored in glass, airtight sturdy food-grade plastic, and the deep freeze!
Well,as bad is it is here in SW Florida,the parents had a tennant move out last week because he bought a house. A whole 70k for a 3/2/2. So I cleaned the place up,put the for rent sign up last night and low and behold I already have 4!!! calls to rent. All said they have the money to move in.
If you have rentals that aren't leveraged you are doing pretty good right now.
Kinda nice after struggling for two years against all the brand new places...
Chris
son-of-curtis,
Yeah, southeastern Ok didn't really notice much difference between 1933 and 1923. You still had to hoe the corn and, if you missed, you didn't eat meat.
Jesus Christo, is it 1999? Did I just stumble onto a Y2K site
jg wrote:
Disgusting, how Pres. Bush, Paulson, Lazear, et al. are pushing consumption, when they should be promoting saving.
Goodness! I thought we were allies!
I was pretty happy in 1980.
Elvis: How is Heather doing today?
The Dow hasn't crashed because it never built in any terribly strong expectations of growth in the past decade. Even if you thought the economy was going to go into recession, are your long term expectations of total profits/production in nominal dollar terms really no higher than they were in 2000?
The S&P 500, as I've mentioned before, is at a P/E that is relatively low relative to the long term trend and which has fallen by half since the end of the bubble in 2002.
Farming. No thanks. You don't own livestock - they own you. To bad everyone in the house is sick with the flu and it is 20 below zero. They need to be feed.
Gardening? I have a big garden. It also owns you. Weeds never stop growing, and each tomato plant can drink a gallon of water a day in August.
I have been a bricklayers apprentice, loaded moving vans, a laborer, and worked on a farm. Nothing will kick your ass like farm work.
To be a farmer is to carry this huge specialized database around in your head. Being a farmer is some ways like being a concert level performer of music. You need to start at learning about it when you can walk.
The Mad Max scenario is not anything I look forward to. I like civilized life and the benefits of it. I do not want to shoot people over food. Nor do I have desire to live like my Great Grandparents. The women looked old at 35 for a reason. I would have already been dead for 7 years if I had lived back then.
Nice story, son-of-curtis. Hope your situation continues to work out well for you...
I would have already been dead for 7 years if I had lived back then.
Actually life expectancy at birth was a lot lower but life expectancy at age 18 wasn't that much lower than now, ~8 years or so.
Where do all these sour consumers live? Everyone I know is making good money, going out to eat whenever they want, driving nice cars, playing golf etc..
Ministry of Truth writes:
"OT: Anyone tryed to sell anything besides a hybrid on Craigslist lately? I can't give stuff away these days."
Which area Craigslist are you using?
I use the Bay Area craigslist a lot. As in, probably more than I should. Example: A nice couch and a camera flash last week.
Following certain search terms for long periods using RSS feeds, I'm seeing that motorcycle sales seem to be quite slow. Now, maybe that's because everyone who wanted a motorcycle bought one in the West Coast Choppers / American Chopper days, but machines that normally held their value (like the Yamaha FJR-1300) sit for months at a great price.
Heaven help you if you decided you need to sell your recently purchased Italian bike.
1980 BC or AD?
Boomer writes:
Where do all these sour consumers live? Everyone I know is making good money, going out to eat whenever they want, driving nice cars, playing golf etc..
Hey, Boomer, I'm on my way. What are the directions?