UK: "House prices won't recover until 2015"

Yes. We're all pretty stupid.

Oh my, I thought it was bad, but now I have feces in my pants!

Second!

UK Billy with the Bad Teeth is a very funny guy Wink

God damn it CR,

Can't you be more positive!

Re:
Salonda Johnson, Miss Lewisville USA, and Oscar Fierro, her sponsor, flew to Laredo Sunday for the week-long Miss Texas USA competition.

Fierro, a well-known fashion designer, said Tuesday was a crucial day, as each of about 100 contestants went before judges for personality interviews.

“To enter the Miss Texas USA contest, you must be beautiful,” Fierro had told the contestant from Lewisville, “To win, you must be smart.”

The UK is I sooo much worse shape tha the US, I still woder how sterling levitates against the USD while it's getting pounded by the EUR.

CRE is already worse than the US.

Re: Debt burden is higher even than Japan's when it peaked in 1990, before more than a decade of deflation.

Nasty not nice, but there may yet be a silver lining
Nasty not nice, but there may yet be a silver lining - Scotsman.com Business

The truth, of course, is different. To call fiscal policy "prudent" is to strain credulity beyond breaking point. Government debt now exceeds the magic 40 per cent of GDP. OK, you don't (yet) see this in the official data but if you believe them I'd suggest a spell in the clinic. If the government accounted as do public companies (i.e. honestly) we'd likely find the debt ratio twice as big.

Duuuuuh.

Look at historic housing cycles. What is the period???

It is NOT 1yr, 2 yrs 3 yrs, or even 5 yrs. It is more like 9-15 yrs.

What kind of idiot would expect the mother of all bubbles to recover in 1 or 2 yrs? An idiot that listens to the crap Bernanke spews.

“To win, you must be smart.”

Yeah, you need a really nice pair of hemispheres.

Kona Gold,

"God damn it CR,

Can't you be more positive!"

Well I didn´t learn English as a foreign language for over 10 years and then search for this blog for another couple of years to have it all destroyed by you Smile

CR, keep up the excellent work!

From the pessimistic but not bankrupt country,

Mein deutche ist scheisse, aben besser.

God save the Queen.

Re the link I noted above... Even more pathetic... it's PHOENIX. The middle of the desert. A place where people spend millions of dollars on houses in the middle of the goddamn desert. And this golf club is the "power center."

I wish them all weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth. And soon. I hope their children will be eunuchs in Babylon.

Oh, and golf is fucking STUPID and a waste of water, especially in the desert.

The US will NEVER have deflation. Our leader Benjamin Bernanke is an expert deflation killer. He has helicopters prepared to drop money from the sky.

Deflation, No. Hyperinflation, yep.

So much for Old World Europeans understanding business cycles.

God help me, I love this blog. Eshpescially on a Friday evening.

I know I had a vintage bottle of Ripple here somewhere!

Red or white?

El Cliffo,

At 32 proof who cares?

Someone from the UK, please answer the following:

In the US, part of the housing bubble has been made into a racial issue (at least where I live); that the corrupt Republican party turned a blind eye to lending practices that preyed upon "low-income" (i.e. minority) buyers.

Is this an issue in the UK as well?

I wonder what some of the bubble cities here have as debt ratios. I imagine your Scottsdale and Klownifornians are North of 200%.

Ross,

don´t forget you´ll have to be sober by 10 a.m. on Sunday morning.
Our trac control does help against many things but Ripple might be to much...

Off for today,

GermanGuy,
You're a neat kid. Happy dreams.

Ross,

"I know I had a vintage bottle of Ripple here somewhere!"

Ich trinken bier...I think.

Gotta find that bottle of blue lable scotch, from back in the 80's when super markets sold that shit. Should be like 20 years old by now...good times.

Cheers,

To sell a home, the secret is in the marketing. For example, see this story (hat tip Patrick.net) called <a href=http://www.wptv.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=78a75ee2-c8e6-4281-be4e-b9300480b990&ref=patrick.net">"Local Home For Sale Includes Wife."

Germanguy,

don´t forget you´ll have to be sober by 10 a.m. on Sunday morning.
Our trac control does help against many things but Ripple might be to much..."

Should never have gone Lutheran. Catholics just need to stop drinking an hour before mass. Sip bloody mary's until 7:59 am...then, watch ESPN for a bit, then off.

Cheers,

Argento,

can´t speak for the UK, but I have lived in Dublin/Ireland from 2000-2003, and the housing bubble/debt levels are not very different as far as I know.

Over there, the rise in house prices was solely due to the believ of all the Irish that the economy would only go up (forever) and that salaries would only rise etc.
Not many foreigners/minorities there - mostly European and nearly all renters as they didn´t want to stay permanently.

However, in the UK, a huge amount of East Europeans settled down after the extension of the EU in 2004... maybe that blew up the buy-to-let market by some extent but cannot say for sure.

Gordon Brown's gonna get his ass handed to him soon if he can't find his groove. The freakin' fascists just outpolled his boy in a by-election on the first anniversary of his tenure.

http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Less-popular-than-the-BNP.4232823.jp

El Cliffo,

So, Middle aged American cougars with LOTS of plastic surgery, who worked in the housing biz, are now selling themselves to the highest bidder to stay in their McMansions...oh yeah and take care of the kids.

I'm having all kinds of non-pc thoughts right now. This really BLOWS my mind...if take my meaning.

She's a hot cougar, but since I won't say "I do" she could be streeted in a moment. I say the +2's ate a bunch of whatever IQ she had.

Cheers,

Misean,
Just a few Shiner Bocks. Gotta support my state. Grolsch in a pinch. Love the Dutch. They gave us tulips!

Wrote a paper back in 71 about Tulipomania. It ended with 'one wonders what would have happened had the gladiola sooner been discovered.'
Not much I suspect.

From somone "there are swarms and herds and men build forts."

Von Waldez,

"The freakin' fascists"

Brown has security cameras, police raids, bans on kitana swords...

WTF is good about labour?

Cheers,

why not 2030?

maybe the polar bears will survive.

Ross,

"Just a few Shiner Bocks. Gotta support my state. Grolsch in a pinch. Love the Dutch. They gave us tulips!'

Actually I'm drinking Heineken and Stoli.

I imagine I shall be quite trashed soon.

Cheers,

Misean,that is "Katana".And the Brits are seriously discussing banning pointed knives...

Speaking of trashed...how about a lil' music ...for the stock market...

YouTube -

Cheers,

I would truely love to see the British housing market collapse. There is a certain castle north of Inverness that is now occupied by ahem, a certain owner of Harrods that I would like to disposess.

Internationalism will never work in the long run because I WILL have my property returned. By sale or blut und stahl.

Argento-

I doubt there wasany part of the US that was immune from the subprime "it's all about those dang minorities" meme.

Blaming it on minorities was a great way to make people in primarily white areas/neighborhoods keep on buying houses at the height of the bubble, when, coincidentally, subprime was first getting MSM presstime, confident that their area was "different" and would see no or little foreclosure action, IMO.

Also,having lived abroad a lot, I can tell you that the "USA minority problem" is one that gets a lot of press in foreign countries, Asian as well as European.

So blaming minorities also had the effect of keeping foreign buyers in the game at the top of the bubble too.

Remeber how dependent the NAR was on insisting that foreign buyers would keep the game alive?

Wonder how many 2007 European buyers of FLA. condos are now shocked at the amount of foreclosure in their "safe" , primarily white condo community.

7 year economic predictions? sounds about as reliable as an adjustable rate mortgage.

Misean Misean,

Love the Stoli idea. Too many Russian business negotiations. Fond memories.

Music a little nihilistic. How bout some Wagner. When melancholy, Porgy and Bess.

Tom Stone,

"Misean,that is "Katana".And the Brits are seriously discussing banning pointed knives..."

You are correct...as I am not spell checking due to beer and vodka. And yes I know they are trying to ban steak knives.

The cry in Briton should be weapons don't kill people, people do! I hate the US Supine court...but bob sagget! they just affirmed my right to f*cking gun.

More vodka now.

Cheers,

Ross,

"Music a little nihilistic. How bout some Wagner.Music a little nihilistic. How bout some Wagner."

Fine! pffff. Here:

YouTube -

Cheers,

This could be an indication. Their largest Bank, HSBC, has been financing homes without charging interest. Please explain this one to me:

"HSBC Amanah
In mid-2003 HSBC became the first UK High Street lender to offer homebuying products in compliance with Sharia (Islamic) law, which prohibits the charging or payment of interest. The range now includes a bank account and home insurance policy (Takaful) as well as home finance."

Tanks Misean. I'm havink only tree more martulies. Den to bed.

Ta ta

Ross,

Two Minutes To Midnight...more appropriate

Talk to mp...

YouTube - Iron Maiden - Two Minutes To Midnight 

Cheers,

Uncle Billy:

It's like payday lending; "administrative fees" in lieu of interest.

'No interest' gains interest with British Muslims | csmonitor.com

Memorable quotes for
Sleeper (1973)

Miles Monroe: Where am I anyhow, I mean, what happened to everybody, where are all my friends?
Dr. Aragon: You must understand that everyone you knew in the past has been dead nearly two hundred years.
Miles Monroe: But they all ate organic rice

Argento, Ta.

Regarding madness: House of Fun seems appropriate as well.

Wonder how common the first lien helocs were. Maquarie mortgage did a fair number of them in Australia.

Im sitting at a restaurant in florida tonight....Table has ads built in to it....a real estate company ad says "the stock market goes up and down, but real estate goes up,up,up!. Call Us!. "

Hilarious. I think Ill call them, to find out if they are still in business.

Kona Gold,
It's amazing that poetry is now practiced by song lyric writers. A little decadent but the beat goes on.

Moliere's eye for the decadent was amazing. Then we got Chagall Heisenberg and Elvis.

Is there no shame? Nah!

Not OT and this is about the House Of Rock:

  1. Spinal Tap has had a succession of drummers, all of whom they claim have died under odd circumstances: one in a "bizarre gardening accident"; another "choked on vomit," (although it was never determined whose vomit it was, as "you can't really dust for vomit"), and a third from apparent spontaneous human combustion onstage, leaving a small green "globule" on his drum throne.
  2. I never realized the connection with The Dead:

Following the Grateful Dead's "Europe '72" tour, Pigpen's health had deteriorated to the point that he could no longer tour with the Dead. His final concert appearance was June 17, 1972 at the Hollywood Bowl, in Los Angeles, California. Keith and Donna Jean left the band in 1979, and Brent Mydland joined as keyboardist and vocalist. Keith Godchaux died in a car accident in 1980. Mydland was the keyboardist for the Dead for 11 years until his death in 1990. He became the third Dead keyboardist to pass away. Almost immediately, former The Tubes keyboardist Vince Welnick joined on keyboards and vocals. From September 15, 1990 to March 24, 1992, Welnick was joined by Bruce Hornsby on piano; Hornsby had previously appeared as a sit-in player beginning in 1988 and continued as such from 1992 until 1995

It's Friday night! Where's my bank failure?

The President we should elect.

"Then up sprang brave Horatious, the keeper of the gate. 'For every man upon this earth, death comes but soon or late. And what a greater death than facing fearful odds. For the ashes of his fathers and the temples of his Gods.' "

We might need a praetorian guard, just in case.

Does anyone think that Tanta is CRs Mom? I don't know, and have never really thought about it, but I was curious as to what others around here were finding within their hearts?

Uncle Billy Has Bad Teeth, out of curiosity could you change to just Uncle Billy?

Not trying to give you a hard time but that so reminds me of my dental appointment last month.

But you don't have to, just wondering.

Kona Gold,

"Spinal Tap has had a succession of drummers, all of whom they claim have died under odd circumstances"

You can't get fingerprints off vommit.

Cheers,

aw no news from FDIC yet?

I guess we do have 4 more hours to go here on the west coast

mudbug,

i see you are frequenting some fancy haute cuisine establishment with real estate ads on the table this fine friday evening.

Kona Gold,

Here ya go...

"Spinal Tap has had a succession of drummers, all of whom they claim have died under odd circumstances"

YouTube -

Cheers,

Hmmm...

Fitch Weighs Lower Rating for Wachovia

- NY Times

Put this dog out of its misery...

Seriously, that cougar has got to be a former stripper put out to pasture. I can't tell if those shots were taken with a bad camera or someone did a lousy job of smearing vaseline on the lens.

And if you are in a blue mood, nothing beats Nina Simone (wish there was a better version on youtube)
YouTube - I've Got It Bad & That Ain't Good

Jane in St Louis,

That's no cougar...that's a hippo.

Cheers,

OT but have you seen the article about a San Fran guy getting 4 years in prison for torching the Burning Man 4 days before the schedule? Hilarious!

These creatures are counter culture and they fry one of their own? I guess super counter culture is verboten.

Burning Man is soooo mainstream. By the way, why isn't it a Burning Woman?

Wachovia built its loan loss reserve by $2 billion in first quarter-2008. However, this represents only about 1.2% of Wachovia's substantial $170 billion residential mortgage portfolio. Included in the portfolio is $121 billion of Pick-A-Pay (option ARM) mortgages, a product that has exhibited more significant deterioration in performance metrics than conventional 30-year or 15-year fixed-rate mortgages for the industry.

The vast majority of Wachovia's Pick-A-Pay portfolio (58% or approximately $71 billion) is in the troubled California market, with much of that in the central part of the state that has experienced among the most severe home value devaluation.

Wow... Didn't realize it was this bad. The hilarious thing is that everyone down here (SC) can't figure out why Wachovia is in trouble because it doesn't do many mortgages in its home base.

Bah I'll raise you some world destruction
YouTube - world destruction 

and the urban foraging movement
YouTube - SUSTAINING L.A - Night Forage by Fallen Fruit

Trouble for aussie markets on monday?

By the middle of last year the Australian Securities and Investments Commission was on notice of serious issues that would become a factor in market ructions that have cost investors more than $16 billion this year.

In fact it was more than on notice. It knew about fund manager disquiet about poor disclosure surrounding stock lending that was occurring in last year's takeover-fuelled market.

It knew about the fundamental problem of short selling occurring without any disclosure to the market.

At least they are being truthful unlike some in this country.

Jane in St Loui,

Unfortunately I don't like rap.

Cheers,

Sydney House prices head south..

An analysis of 2008 sales reveals that the great Sydney equation - take property, mix with water views, and you cannot go wrong - could be breaking down.

Even at Bondi, where prices have jumped 12.6 per cent in the past four years, the median price has fallen 1.6 per cent this year after 42 sales, figures from Australian Property Monitors show.

House drop in Canada.........
This page is available to GlobePlus subscribers

"Wow, I SO hope the f---ers who golf here lose their shirts"

Dream on, Phx Country Club is old guard headquarters. But, it's also, sooo yesterday. Lost the open many moons ago to Snotsdale.

Anyone have any ideas of how to short the British housing market?

"Unfortunately I don't like rap."
Cheers,
Misean | 06.27.08 - 11:47 pm |

What is that?? Never heard of it...

The classic line.

"Ours go to Eleven"

Chris

Misean,

What's the occasion? Or, do you even need one? Wink

Development Bank of Japan lost more than 30 billion yen in U.S. mortgage related securities.

Any priest speaks Japanese at that confessional booth?

Youse guys are no fun.

"philosophy, is the talk on a cereal box. Religion is the smile on a dog."

Nuf for moi.

U dacha

Misean 11:something

Enjoyed the drummer video a lot!

This is an add on: Spontaneous human combustion (SHC) refers to the belief that the human body sometimes burns without an external source of ignition. There is much speculation and controversy regarding SHC, for it is not a proven natural phenomenon. Many theories and hypotheses have attempted to explain how SHC might occur, but those which rely on current scientific understanding say that instances mistaken for spontaneous combustion actually required a source of ignition. One such hypothesis is the "wick effect", in which the clothing of the victim soaks up melted human fat and acts like the wick of a candle. Another possibility is that the clothing is caused to burn by a discharge of static electricity. The likelihood that truly spontaneous human combustion actually takes place is remote, due to the presence of water and the lack of highly flammable compounds and oxygen in the human body.[1]

I think there will be several CEOs and members of Congress that combust soon.

Argento writes:
"Someone from the UK, please answer the following:"

Likewise, could someone from the UK, France, Germany or Europe respond to my french sonIL's statement that Europeans do not lease cars over 5 years with 2% down as we do, they do not roll car lease balances due into their next lease amount, they do not (did not) buy houses with 80-20 100% loans and are not (were not) offered HELOCs on top of that, and are not nor have been inundated with or accepted promotional personal or business credit card offers based on home ownership and credit history?

He asserts that U.S. citizens have cornered the market in binge borrowing, and my responce was that our consumer credit collapse will then far exceed Europe's and it's time to buy FXE and FXF.

does anyone here really believe racism was a major driver of subprime? if so you should wake up...I think Obama (like him or not) demonstrates that racism in the US, while present, is much less than most of the world.

in the early part of this decade Congress practically held a gun to the head of major lenders...find a way to lend to low income minorities or else.

Kona Gold,

It's just cold fusion. Buy PALLADIUM. It's the other white metal.

Trade up to a real metal hat with a whirly beanie. Aluminum don't cut it anymore.

Midnight in munchkin ville. Da svedagnia.............

are you kidding me:

You'd be surprised how many people down here (SC) are calling for investigations of subprime lenders for targeting minorities. Personally, I think the lenders were equal opportunity scums who only saw one color: green. Then again, the subprime crisis has actually been somewhat "contained" down here.

This could be an indication. Their largest Bank, HSBC, has been financing homes without charging interest. Please explain this one to me:

They call a duck a chicken, although in this religious context calling a pig a cow would be more apt. And do note both the server and the diner of the pork are being equally hypocritical.

BTW in their dealings with Inland Revenue, BoE, and the securities regulators, who are not interested in this kind of games, you can bet they report this income as interest.

peAkcredit,

speaking for Germany, all those things your French son-in-law has said seem to be pretty right.

Regarding cars, a rather high percentage of new cars sold are still being paid for all cash (many of them to older folks who live on a good pension).
However, a high percentage of new cars (60-70%) is sold to businesses and only 30-40% of new cars are sold to private owners. In other words, nearly everyone is buying used because they have to or more important, simply don´t like to get into debt - our central bank at no stage lowered the rates to 1%...
From a statistical point of view, the German car owner keeps his car that was brand new on purchase for 7 years on average.

One important thing regarding mortgages - all mortgages are tied to the person who takes them out, instead of only being tied to the house. So, no walking away and if a house gets foreclosed on, the (not very) happy owner still has to pay the mortgage in full until it is paid off.
Banks in general are very serious about mortgages, and if there is the very slightest doubt that your income is not safe or sufficient, you can forget about that house of your own (most people rent anyway).
HELOCs are totally unknown.

Only a tiny minority of Germans does have credit cards, and if they do, they will only use them if there is no other practical way to pay.

The root of the problem is that US citizens have become accustomed to be the Nr. 1 in the world. So when income growth from jobs vanished at some stage in the 90s due to globalization, politicians had to find some way to keep folks happy, and that was done by creating a debt bubble that allowed for the image of prosperity, which was much easier for them than to have to explain to the ordinary citizen why their living standard had to go down.

Same goes for the UK where there´s even less industry (and good paying industry jobs) left.

So for the moment, having our industry still in place, we in Germany have been spared. Waiting for future things to come...

Ups - forgot my name Smile

The other comment about many of the european countries and cars, is that having a company car is a lot more common for pretty much all levels of management and senior engineering. (The high level of income tax makes it a bit of a tax dodge on both sides.)

isnt it strange to see all these countrys that followed anglo american capitalism go rapidly down the toilet??

well i will produce some smug now

YouTube -

peAkcredit:

Speaking from my corner of central Europe, I'd also say it's correct overall.

"do not lease cars over 5 years with 2% down" - 5 years maybe, just usually more like 20 % down for consumers. Longer credit terms are available, but usually a bad deal.

"they do not roll car lease balances due into their next lease amount" - no bank (including those of the carmakers) will like you being underwater on your car.

"buy houses with 80-20 100% loans and are not (were not) offered HELOCs" - 20-30% downpayment is the norm. You can tap equity through another loan, but not from the 20-30% cushion.

"credit card offers" - most credit cards are directly based on the bank account and the balance is automatically withdrawn every month. You can keep a balance, but given the costs (15% interest or so) that's an option for the stupid. Card issuance is quite lose, but I think nowhere near american standards (or lack thereof).

Overall, our bankers usually fall for the latest anglosaxon hype to some extent, but their consumer business is mostly done the old-fashioned way.

in the early part of this decade Congress practically held a gun to the head of major lenders...find a way to lend to low income minorities or else.

Absolute BS. It was the lenders themselves who decided to offer zero down, liar loans, toxic amortization, etc. To everyone of course, not just minorities.

If want to argue, show me the legislation which you claim was passed or threatened (which would have to have been signed by Bush too).

Why did lending standards suddenly tighten up last year? Because the secondary market wouldn't buy their junk any more.

In Switzerland, to buy a house you must put at least 20% down. (Law). Your choice of mortgage is very wide - this is Banking/insurance country after all - it can be fixed rate, variable rate (set by the central bank), or LIBOR rate (money markets), in any combination (tranches). Some banks will offer favorable rates to known clients, say half or even one point less than the going. Reimbursing the capital can also vary greatly. It can also be done thru pension/retirement/ insurance schemes, which brings fiscal advantages. I.e. your savings for retirement go straight into your house, and are only little taxed on the way through.

In all cases, however, the granting of a mortgage depends not only on the house but on the borrower. Your payments cannot exceed 30% of your yearly income, and this % is pondered in function of the no. of dependents you have or even might create! And believe me, the banks are strict, question everything, and gettting around the ‘safe’ requirements can only be done by fraud. If it is discovered you lose the mortgage, and of course your house.

Anway few ppl own their homes - Switz. is a country of tenants.

Why are we talking about "recovering"? Why should house prices recover to a bubble level?

The media should be taken out and shot for glorifying the bubble on the way up and then decrying the collapse. Where are the collective hurrahs for affordable prices, for sanity, for the end of the bubble?

House prices need to collapse by at least fifty percent in the UK to re-establish affordability. From there, no "recovery" just normal prices.

I have ZERO sympathy for anyone who participated in this bubble whether they are single mums with three drooling, spoiled brats or City Wankers with three million quid balloon mortgages. I don't think anyone should help them, especially not taxpayers.

Or, give me a government backstop for gambling and I will be down at William Hill betting on the poneys.

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