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who's the sad bastard to claim "first"?
With only 9 visitors online, now is my chance!!!
9th
Oh fecking hell, it's me....
Shorts out of the water...
The pattern over the past two weeks is quite similar to previous intra bear market declines that immediately preceded intra bear market bottoms and sharp rallies. Accordingly, I closed all of my short positions late Friday, and even took a modest long position, may boost this tomorrow. The market always does exactly what it wants to do and could of course continue down a bit further, there's certainly plenty of gloomy news about right now. Regardless of whether the bottom was last Friday or Monday or a little later, the last rally ending May 19 was ten weeks, over twice as long as usual, IMO the next rally will be on the short side, say two weeks.
Have a look at this: YouTube -
World-wide asset deflation, and world-wide commodity inflation.
Any historical parallels?
Considering the immeasurable amounts of debt out there (personal, corporate, and government), it is hard to imagine that asset deflation can be allowed to continue.
Isn't the only option of governments to print like crazy to mitigate the indebtedness, while allowing demand contraction to mitigate the commodity inflation?
Above one and below 20, but not deterred!
I'm selling the related (OT) economic infrastructure hyperinflation story here, in terms of oil and thus bitumen and asphalt price increases.
We all have a double, if not triple whammy with transportation costs, production costs and decreased demand problem coming at us all like a freight train, on fire, with no one at the helm.
There is the added interesting dynamic relationship with decreasing foreclosure-related property tax revenue and or reserve valuations which will impact budgeting everywhere at ever level. IMHO, in the near future, we all will be paying more for road and infrastructure maintenance and projects, in the form of higher property taxes.
The possible tie-in to China market or a global economy is simply the commodity-like bubble for surging oil, which will spread tentacles into components of economic models that have never planned ahead for this type of parabolic spike in materials and operations overage. The point is that every county, city, government will be impacted by oil and the associated hyperinflation that will essentially be a phased in series of tax burdens for everyone.
ATLANTA ROOF CONTRACTOR KTM ROOFING REACTS TO RISING OIL COST
PR-USA.net
The roofing industry is experiencing a double burden due to the oil dilemma. The high cost of gasoline is affecting materials transportation and operating expenses for roofing contractors. In Atlanta, asphalt roofing is a common preference among home owners for its economic-friendly price and durability
World-wide asset deflation, and world-wide commodity inflation.
Any historical parallels?
The 1970's, of course.
You didn't get housing price deflation in the 1970's, though, for two very good reasons:
Jeepers, all the doom and gloom from the last two threads is keeping CR up at night.
OK, now's my chance! I'd just like to say that, in the light of recent developm...(freezes up). Sheeesh.
Also do note that crude is up 2.30.
Oh and I predict another negative close for the markets today.
I think I've discovered the real BB:
YouTube - Bankers Preparing for Total Collapse
Every country mentioned, save the UK, is even more dependant on imported energy than the US.
$140 oil hurts everyone. Ditto high cereal prices.
Black Monday.
Who has some good news for the markets to rally around?
I have yet to see a single thing.
Oh well, so much for International
Diversification. Who will admit now
that they bought when China was being
touted as the greatest market for your
money when the Shanghai hit its peak
last year?
As for the decoupling argument:
The lines are clearly becoming decoupled from the graph...
Not CNBC writes:
Who will admit now
that they bought when China was being
touted as the greatest market for your
money when the Shanghai hit its peak
last year?
Well for those who are not in china yet, it is arguably a better market than what's in the US now. Judging by the quantum of decline. Plus it's got an appreciating currency and a healthy(overly so?) growth.
HRB was positive with their earnings. Makes me wonder how the hell did they dodge the massive bullet regarding option one. Every other subprime joint basically went tits up.
Quick, govt, fake some numbers so we can hang our droopy hats on them!
Ah well, someone is propping up the dollar, so i guess no capitulation today.
Maybe, just maybe, this global meltdown will finally drive a stake through the heart of the bogus diversification arguments that financial advisors and managers are so fond of using as a pretext to churn your portfolio.
finn , easily, remember lehman? maybe they just as lehman counted price fall of their obligations as an additional unrealised income and so they came into black numbers. offcourse something like this works only until your cash runsout.
Henry Paulson Reaffirms Strong Dollar Policy
Henry Paulson Reaffirms Strong Dollar Policy - CNBC
Here we go again.
I have to say that all these steeply downward stock markets around the globe are a good thing. The bubble economy was unsustainable and this is just what is needed.....a return to reality.
The effects of this downturn will certainly suck, but it is ABSOLUTELY necessary.
you will all love this (I think)
On CNBC this morning 2 different people stated that they see a second half turnaround. Yes, 2nd half starts tomorrow.
Their claim:
1) that a lot of what we're seeing here is financial players holding on to cash right now because they need it for quarter and half end. once that passes (tomorrow) they'll be free to reinvest!
2) holding cash is attractive right now. (huh?)
well anyway, just wanted to reassure you all that we have just over 25 hours until this is all done.
When commodities break, the Eurozone begins to cut interest rates.
Who has some good news for the markets to rally around?
Daniel Nicolas | Homepage | 06.30.08 - 6:44 am
I just saved a bundle on my car insurance....
October 2008 200 strike oil option trading at $1.00....
that is nuts, unless of course , were going on a wild ride higher
When commodities break, the Eurozone begins to cut interest rates.
can they? I thought they had single mandate. their last inflation #'s looked a little hot, no?
Who has some good news for the markets to rally around?
2nd half starts tomorrow.
24 hours and 50 minutes left until the rebound.
I'm the anti-conjure clock.
I guess I'll call it "Hammer Time".
Hammer Time in T minus 24h50m.
YTL: Since almost all the postulates of economics have never been subjected to rigorous testing, almost anything is possible. My best guess is Dow will end the year somewhere between 0 and 25,000. I hope that has been of help.
The problem for the US is that printing dollars may only drive up securities prices and do little at the wage level.
There is a rough figure of 20% of Residential RE was bought on speculation and much of that hidden by fraud. That plus the fact that a lot of residential RE just is not affordable indicates that now matter how much money is printed there is no demand to spend it on RE.
Other than securities and RE where is any money to go? At least under this admin.
There is a case to be made that it will be very hard to print money at the same rate that value is being destroyed in the RE and securities asset classes.
Time to play kick the dead cat. How high can he go this time. Here kitty, kitty.
Vader,
Presumably the funding which supports military operations, stimulus checks and other growing federal initiatives and programs are the generators of inflationary pressures - that's academic inflation, i.e., an increase in the money supply.
I know you don't mean actual printing presses (or do you?), but what I and others generally answer - to those like yourself who continue to suggest that inflating the economy under present conditions will be difficult - is that, without any extraordinary measures, new and existing federal expenditures are increasing every day.
There may come a time - we're not there yet - when it's no longer possible to sterilize some of the special credit facilities recently created. At that point the Treasury will have to issue new debt and perhaps more of the country will wake up to the mechanism.
But the TAF and its cousins are a relatively small part of the swelling deficits which are the exact equivalents - in monetary terms - to those printing presses you cite.
Corn climbed to within 0.8 percent of a record, heading for the biggest monthly gain in 20 years, on speculation the U.S. government will cut its planting and harvest estimates today, after the worst Midwest flooding in 15 years.
Corn has gained 32 percent this month
Corn Near Record, Set for Biggest Monthly Gain Since June 1988 - Bloomberg.com
I am the great Cornholio!
I wonder how Jim Roger's investments in China are doing?
Jim's views are usually long term.
That said, I think a serious look at China is valid if/when the index gets below 2,000.
That said, China's going to get hammered economically in the short run as well..
And 2,000 is still 25% lower than today's price.
Any losses Jim has suffered in the past year in China he's more than made up in Commodities....
China was, by a factor of 3, the biggest bubble in the history of markets.
You already knew in your heart exactly what the final outcome would be when you saw Chinese tradesmen lined up hundreds deep for a chance to buy shares.
The only question was when, and could you sustain the losses necessary to wait it out.
If people are dumping stocks around the world, where is the money going? I'm guessing commodities: wheat, rice, corn, etc. There is some evidence of this, but my gut tells me it's not enough to account for the drop in stocks. Since no one in their right mind hordes currency, people might be using their proceeds from the sale of shares to pay down debt (not a bad idea). Does anyone have serious thoughts on this?
Jim Rogers is a tool,
He was hyping china for as long as I can remember. I hope his ass gets burned bad.
I was myself about to drop 40 grand or so on the Baring China fund about three months ago. Decided on an international bond fund instead. Since then, the bond fund has done ok, a few percent gain... the China fund, not so good.
Rodgers got into his China investments two or three years earlier... I don't think he's underwater yet.
Difficult market to figure out. Not exactly subject to the same type of analyses as the US markets. More of a guess.
Dave Brown,
going to gold, oil, farmland and bonds? i am in short term CD waiting for 2009, a fresh beginning!
anyone think this can possibly be orchastrated to consolidate the power of the market back into the US?
Over the past few years it's been steadily shifting out of our hands and into the world to where we only control 30-40% of the value of world markets.