There's still something Orwellian about these statistics. [bzb]

Has been for years. How many "independent contractors" or self-employed folks do you know? Hundreds, thousands? Employers love them because they don't have to pay benefits or vacation (we won't even talk about pensions, which are so "old America") of any kind.

These numbers apply nicely to certain industries, I suppose, but otherwise, they are propaganda and, really, brainwashing.

And the media clowns continue to report them as legitimate indicators of the nation's economy as a whole. Just one more reason why the U.S. is a formerly great nation.

It's easy to hide a recession when one just makes the numbers up. Come on - 45,000 construction jobs?! 8,000 financial jobs?! Yeah, right! I like how the Birth/Death model added double the number of jobs from last month. Just keep making those numbers up since it's good for us!

In other news, tractor production is up this year, comrade!

But here is what I REALLY like, taken from Marketwatch's front page:

"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks, said Friday that it was increasing the funding it provides to banks and that, for the first time, it was willing to accept bonds backed by auto loans and credit cards."

Great stuff! So, now we're not only monetizing worthless housing debt, we're going to do the same with auto loans and credit card debt - other stuff that won't be paid back. I can't wait for the Fed to start accepting "rolling car loans" - those stupid things where they roll the debt from an old car over to the loan for the new car so a person starts out underwater and never pays off the old car - for Treasuries, etc. Whatever! Hey, I've heard of places where one can rent spinners for one's g-ride - maybe the Fed can take spinner loans, too?

We're so doomed - hyperinflation is on its way.

"They are a couple of lazy, do nothing idiots that will fit right in."

Economists, are they? Or perhaps better for this administration, pseudoeconomists?

So, Sebastian is still making up economic "wisdom" to justify his position. How helpful. A review of the data (just for Sebation - Data: Plural Noun meaning "factural information usted as a basis for reasoning, discussion or calculation) shows that the unemployment rate has fallen briefly during every prolonged period of rise. There is no basis - none - for the assertion that a one-rime decline in the jobless rate is evidence there is no recession. It's pure, made-up nonsense.

Anybody read Frankfurters book on about people who make claims without actually carrying if they are true?
It's entitled "On Bullshit". It's a good read.

Stuart,

The plug is seasonal in nature, so the fact that it is larger in April than in some other month is not, in itself, reason to call a foul. The problem is that the plug for this April is almost exactly the same size as a year ago, even though measured hiring for the year to date is about 160k/month weaker than the same period last year.

I recall reading somewhere that 150,000 per month was the "neutral" number of job growth--that is, the number required just to stay even with population growth.

So, by this count, -20,000 is really 170,000 behind, no? Does this seem right?

Journeyman writes:
I will keep looking for the truth. I suspect it is somewhere between Seb and Jas.

Wow! No one can accuse you of moving the goal posts; they're already spread far from each other.

Sure people have jobs! The employment numbers say so, and when they stop looking for a job, they fall off the unemployment list, and all is well. But if they are lucky, they got a job flipping burgers, which now counts as "manufacturing" or perhaps in a growth area, such as part-time, no benefits, seasonal service sector jobs. In the meantime, they can pass their unpayable credit card bills and rolling auto loans off to the Fed, who will give out shiny, new Treasuries to the banks to keep them happy and rich.

Yep, it all works out great, doesn't it? Right...

I haven't been to this board for quite a while, both because I have been fairly busy and because I find much of the comments rather one-sided. I do have a few thoughts on the recent data:

(1) Most of you have been acting as though the US exists in isolation from the rest of the world. While the US may or may not be in a mild recession, the rest of the world continues to grow, much of it at a rather awe-inspiring pace. Even were the BRIC countries and others to fall to half their current growth rates (unlikely, but possible), their growth would still be north of 5%, and very impressive by any standard. The entry of more than 2 billion people into the world economy is an historical event that drawfs just about everything else, especially a US slow patch/recession.

(2) IMO both the rise and subsequent fall of US real estate prices have been overstated, especially by Case-Schiller. The focus on homes with multiple sales in a short time biases it towards high-turnover properties where speculators are a large presence and under-represents the stable neighbourhoods, especially in mid-ranked cities, where the majority of people live. The following link discusses this pretty well

Market anomalies skew home-price data, providers agree Shades of Green - MarketWatch

The OFHEO numbers, while not perfect, are more representative and show both a more modest rise and much less of a fall.

(3)Specially for Rich, if he's still here, I had a bet with him on which would do better, my favourite stock, ELN, or his SRS. As of today, y-o-y, ELN is up 90%; SRS is up 5%. Couldn't resist.

60% of the jobs added by the economy over the last year (April 2007 to April 2008) have been in the government sector.

With big states like California heading into truly terrible financial straits, I would not be surprised to see the government contribution to employment decline significantly this coming fall as teachers aren't hired back.

Good contribution Gareth G.

CR points to history.

For sure big mooves will come, next month?

"If this "recession" was the real thing, the unemployment rate wouldn't be "pausing", it would keep steadily rising as economic conditions and the employment picture deteriorated."

Not true. In the 1973-1975 recession, unemployment fluctuated and "stairstepped" upwards several times. Even then, the recession started out at only 4.6% unemployment before peaking at 9%.

1973-11-01 4.8
1973-12-01 4.9
1974-01-01 5.1
1974-02-01 5.2
1974-03-01 5.1
1974-04-01 5.1
1974-05-01 5.1
1974-06-01 5.4
1974-07-01 5.5
1974-08-01 5.5
1974-09-01 5.9
1974-10-01 6.0
1974-11-01 6.6
1974-12-01 7.2
1975-01-01 8.1
1975-02-01 8.1
1975-03-01 8.6
1975-04-01 8.8
1975-05-01 9.0