Fannie Visits the Confessional

The competition was fierce as I battled against 64 visitors online to be ... first!

Moin again,

more comedy from Phony Mae...

Fannie Mae's federal regulator said on Tuesday it will reduce the company's capital-surplus requirement to 15% from 20% when Fannie Mae completes a new capital-raising plan

On top of this Fannie is hinting that another 5 percentage point reduction to 10% will be in place in September 2008....

Party on.... I´m not sure how much fire power this means but i assume this won´t be insignificant.....

Here is the Phony Mae Presentation

oh

Fannie said it expects "severe weakness in the housing market to continue in 2008,"

Fannie overseer to lower required capital surplus

Fannie Mae's regulator on Tuesday said it lifted a 2006 consent order placing limits on America's largest home finance company after the firm fixed problems tied to an accounting scandal.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) also said it intends to further reduce the capital surplus requirement it placed on Fannie Mae FNM.NX upon successful completion of its capital-raising effort.

Fannie overseer to lower required capital surplus
| Reuters

OK

OT: DHI reports huge loss:

Expired

Fort Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton Inc. posted a loss of $1.31 billion, or $4.14 per share, [...]
Revenue plunged to $1.62 billion from $2.62 billion a year ago.

On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected a loss of 39 cents per share on revenue of $1.36 billion.

Well, they beat the revenue estimates so the stock market is going to shoot to the moon....

When all is said and done I expect a couple more zero's on the right side of the GSE losses. The only solution the government will come up with is to have the GSE's buy all the mortgages and eat all the losses.

Is Fannie Mae backed by the govt ? Does a Fannie Mae loss translate to a loss for taxpayers ?

Regards.

Fannie is leveraged 100 to 1. that is they hold 1 dollar for every 100 that they lent out. Losses will dwarf the FED and even the Treasury's balance sheet. The Gov't will inevitably have to do the mother of all bailouts, along with the airlines, automakers, and student loans I don't see how They possibly solve this problem by simply throwing money at it.

Is Fannie Mae backed by the govt ? Does a Fannie Mae loss translate to a loss for taxpayers ?

Yes and you bet.

Vikram-- the federal guarantee is "implicit" but if the Feds will back Bear Stearn's garbage they will back the GSEs. However, I'd expect equity investors to be wiped out when the collapse comes.

The NY Times has a great visual on this:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/05/06/business/20080505_FANNIE_GRAPHIC.jpg

Angry renter thanks for the graph

cooking, remember that Jack Welch always said be first or second...or get out of the business Smile

But, you know, you have to admit that so far, Fannie's losses look pretty good next to C and a few others.

Fannie Mae is a giant disaster in the making. To keep losing money and yet have a lower capital requirement is astounding. But since they will be bailed out anyway, who needs requirements, balance sheets, etc.

This will be the mother of all bailouts

In case you missed the initiation, OFHEO is now an official card carrying member of the PPT, making spirit lifting and stock levitating announcements at what seem to be well placed points in time.

Anyone keeping tract how many regulators are PPT members?

Off Topic, from Bloomberg:

Countrywide Takes Away Home-Equity Credit Lines in Las Vegas 

"Countrywide Financial Corp. has suspended the home equity credit lines of almost all its Las Vegas customers . . .

"Since January, Countrywide, Bank of America Corp., Washington Mutual Inc. and IndyMac Bancorp Inc. have frozen about 600,000 equity credit lines nationwide, said Michael Kratzer, president of a Bankrate Inc.-owned Web site that's fielding consumer complaints. The lenders are targeting borrowers in cities where property values are falling, including Las Vegas, Chicago and Los Angeles, he said."

Moin again,

seems like the bailout is already priced in.....


Chart credit default swaps Fannie Mae

Anybody catch this article on Bloomberg? Some heavy cheerleading from a hedge fund manager named Barton Biggs. When I read his name I had to make sure I wasn't reading the Onion.

Bloomberg.com

Companies aren't expressing "gloom and doom," and the economy is "not as bad as you would believe from listening to the press and some of the Wall Street commentators," Biggs said during an interview with Bloomberg Television from New York.

I've just become active in the swaps market. Current quoted market for FNM debt is at $40k annual on 10mm.
For a limited time, and limited quantites, up to 100mm, I'lll offer protection at $30k per 10mm. As you can see by the above chart, protection was trading at $100k/yr/10mm just 3 months ago. So don't delay , this wonderful opportunity won't last long.

Make payments to BBBB at paypal. TIA

I can't remember now. I'm right in thinking the losses of Fannie and DRHorton are good for the market and huge buying opportunities right?
I'm continuing to load up!

And their loan portfolio hasn't even been recession stress-tested yet.

More proof that this is really a home affordability issue via this Gem from Downey's Q1 10Q.

‘A higher incidence of delinquency is expected when the minimum payments reset on our adjustable rate loans subject to negative amortization or interest only payments ... . For example, as of March 31, 2008, there were $976 million of loans subject to negative amortization or with interest only payments within our loans held for investment that have not been modified but had first time payment recasts since December 31, 2006, of which 36.1% were delinquent 30 or more days at March 31, 2008.'

These are ALT-A and Prime loans - 1/3 of which go delinquent when they hit their recast. DSL forecasts $3,243M loans will recast in ’08 and another $1,958M in ’09.

Tanta - Do GSE portfolios include neg-am, or i/o loan products?

watching these guys respond is like watching an oil tanker do a U turn in the ocean....

"Tom Servo writes:
Fannie Mae is a giant disaster in the making. To keep losing money and yet have a lower capital requirement is astounding. But since they will be bailed out anyway, who needs requirements, balance sheets, etc.

This will be the mother of all bailouts"

What are you worrying about? It's your kids that are going to pay for this, not you. Now go out and spend some money.... Put if on your credit card if you don't have any. It's the American way.

Question: When did Fannie ever leave the confessional?

Seriously, you sure they don't live there? I haven't seen 'em leave in a long, long time.

Srsly, who is going to give Fannie Mae money? I think they are tiptoeing away from the full faith and credit thing.

In the distance I can already here the first faint sounds of the financial system creaking under the stress... Things could snap anywhere along the chain... anytime. Where is the weakest link? Could it be Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

FNM and FRE make me angry. I've bee writing about these guys for months. They continue to take on more risk by expanding their portfolios at an ever increasing clip. FNM increased their portfolio 2% in March alone.

How can concentrating ALL the mortgage risk of the entire US in two companies be a good idea?

I have'nt heard any market stories about 'sell in may, and walk away' this year.

"Sonic Seuss writes:
Anybody catch this article on Bloomberg? "

Saw the Barton Biggs interview yesterday. He was stuttering like Paulson. Right odd for that old man. Almost like he was overly shilling his bull stance, and he actually seemed scared. Never seen him like that before. He was bullish after the Bear bailout and confident then, this time he didn't exude confidence at all. Very strange overall. Seen him for years, and he was very non-reassuring yesterday. Not believable at all.

Stuart:

I will get right on it. I will spend until my Visa card is glowing red.

Thanks for the sanity check.

Interesting that UBS just sold a 22B portfolio of subprime mortgages to Black Rock for 15B. That's .68 on the dollar, so better than some here are saying.

So it appears these are running around a 31% or so discount. Which means that someone thinks their ultimate value is higher, or they wouldn't be buying.

@ipodius

On top of this UBS has done some of the fianancing for Blackrock.....

How can concentrating ALL the mortgage risk of the entire US in two companies be a good idea?

It makes the eventual, the inevitable bailout of the mortgage industry easier.

Also pretty sure that BlackRock has bought it through a non-recourse vehicle funded by UBS.
Great for BlackRock - max. defined loss and great for UBS - off its balance sheet (for now).

Which means that someone thinks their ultimate value is higher, or they wouldn't be buying.

you've exposed yourself as 'not very deep thinker

ipod - "Which means that someone thinks their ultimate value is higher, or they wouldn't be buying"

Uhhh, OK. The bottom's in then, right? When will we start seeing the markups? I can't wait. As house price declines ramp up and delinquencies and defaults rocket higher it would be a nice psychological boost, no?

I mean, we never get to see the markdowns at instrument level so hiding the markups to primp balance sheets should be easy enough to do, since the regulators want it to be so.

Maybe Hillary or Obama can come in with a pen and fix all the ledgers at once? Oil company profits can be used to fix FNM. LOL!

Officially Fannie and Freddie aren't backed by the government, and government officials have been reminding us of that rather ostentatiously lately. But a lot of people think they are anyway. Without question, they are too big to fail - without them there would be no mortgage market right now.

And look at FNM go up. Guess I should've covered at the open. What happened here? Bunch of shorts had their stops triggered?

Nothing quite like being right (about the poor earnings) and still losing money.

Re the NYT chart, isn't it for end of 2007?

From the press release
http://www.fanniemae.com/media/pdf/newsreleases/q12008_release.pdf

On the bottom of page 3, the estimated value of net assets was $35.8 billion at end of December 2007 and is now $12.2 billion for end of March 2008!

23 billion in assets written off?

Srsly, who is going to give Fannie Mae money?

I think Bill Gross can answer that. That's one of my 401K choices.
Pimco Total Return

Of course, it's still OPM.

Uhhh, OK. The bottom's in then, right? When will we start seeing the markups?

barely, do you think you have a brain tumor every time you get a headache?

By feeding only the top .1%, the bushies made RE unaffordable. Nothing gets better until Average Joe sees a substantial raise. That can only happen with reunionization of US workers--ain't gonna happen. We're screwed by greed, not unusual.

stuart said:
What are you worrying about? It's your kids that are going to pay for this, not you.

Don't be so sure about that. What would the net effect of a bail-out be? I'm guessing 401k's would drop by half, and house prices also drop by half. I'd gladly trade the housing price drops for half of my retirement... someone over 40 that owns a house? I don't know if they'd like that... and I'm trying to envision this as a "best case scenario". Also, everyone who has a 401k or any investments will be taxed the heck out of... so have fun withdrawing your 401k, might've been smart to use a RothIRA... also those on medicaid will see their medicine and health care rationed (TPTB want universal health care)... so have fun enjoying your golden years... eating dog food... and getting substandard health care... at least we don't live in China or Africa!

But sure, it'll be worse for us... but you're going to be feeling the pain sooner... have fun with that VISA.

I really have no idea what a "bailout" would entail and if it would be a BINO... bailout in name only... or a true bailout... the way our politicians have gone I'm guessing it would be a BINO...

Barely @ 10:19,

Don't laugh. The expression 'windfall tax' was coined for the oil companies and could enjoy a revival.

Take a look at he holdings in your pension fund. Fannie Mae has always been a favorite because of implied government backing. Downgrades are dangerous so Ben will ride to the rescue.

Great for BlackRock - max. defined loss and great for UBS - off its balance sheet (for now).

Not sure, the only info out there is that these securities (which is a mix of Alt-A and subprime, which is also interesting) is going into a managed fund of "distressed" assets. So, indeed, they are hoping to get a higher return than the payment, ultimately.

I do think that UBS is trying to just get these off their backs so they can move on. Actually it's a smart move. You can hold and hope that the current mark reflects an over-reaction by the market, or you can just fold and swallow the loss now. At this point I'm 50/50 on the choice.

Also, everyone who has a 401k or any investments will be taxed the heck out of... so have fun withdrawing your 401k, might've been smart to use a RothIRA... also those on medicaid will see their medicine and health care rationed

YLSP let me remind you of something that you should think about in your analysis: the highest percentage of eligible voters who vote is over 40. If you think that, for 10 seconds, any of these programs will be fiddled with your out of your mind. SS and Medicare are the third rail of politics. No one survives touching them. Ever. The only thing that will happen is taxes on the current payors will go up. Just get used to it...hey, I watch the cap go up every year and pay more and more. It won't change.

Too funny. FNM is now up on the news.

why is the stock rallying?

FNM talking about changing their fair value accounting for hedges to reduce volitility. More fee increases coming in june. REO severity is increasing. Credit costs lifted. house price declines revised up. 3 Trillion book of buiness.

??? writes:
why is the stock rallying?

Maybe they've just moved to the front of the bailout queue.

The linked article on Vegas HELOC's getting frozen was the most revolting thing I've read since. . .since. . .oh, sometime yesterday afternoon, I suppose.

Given the examples highlighted in the article, it's absolutely understandable why the bank's freezing the lines. $60K taken from your house to invest in a cell phone accessories business?? Niiiiiiiiice.

Also, everyone who has a 401k or any investments will be taxed the heck out of... so have fun withdrawing your 401k, might've been smart to use a RothIRA...

Let's see how smart that advice sounds in 15-20 years when the Feds decide to start "means testing" (read: double-taxing) Roth IRA withdrawals. (It will be called "means testing" so that politicians can spin it as only impacting "the rich".)

Because, after all, Roths (IRAs and now 401ks) are nothing more than an investment arrangement allowing an individual to contribute after-tax dollars in return for ... pay attention here! ... a promise from the gub'mint that any earnings can be withdrawn tax-free at retirement.

And, as P.J. O'Rourke once wrote, "Consult American Indians for a fuller discussion of government promises."

But we mean it! Even though we might have a $25T national debt and a trillion-dollar deficit in 25 or 30 years, those withdrawals from your Roth IRAs will all be tax-free! No matter what your level of income or assets! Cross our hearts! Hope to die!

"why is the stock rallying?"...

Same reason the dow isn't sitting at 9,000 by now: the PPT.

Re: Take a look at he holdings in your pension fund. Fannie Mae has always been a favorite because of implied government backing.

Are you suggesting that the quality of paper used for yield enhancement has decreased future value?

Why's it up?

Reading that the expectation was for a $10b capital raise. In bizarro-world, a $6b raise represents victory, no matter how bad the number.

Let's see: Fannie loses 2.2B last quarter which is a loss of $2.57 per share instead of the expected $0.81 per share, and oil is up a couple of bucks to over $122 per barrel. This is all good new to Wall Street and equities are up on the news. Yee-e-e-e-e-e-haww-w-w-w-w.

blackrock is not stupid. they buy at 68% and bair is proposing the govt to step in on a writedown to 80%.

looks pretty good to me.

plenty of bonus material here.

Hey but they are going to dilute the shares with a big capital infusion so of course the shares are going up on the market. Makes sense, doesn't it??? LOL

Guys,

read the release,

"120% financing for underwater borrowers." Bizarro world.

Take it away Tanta...

I like, lovely...

Login or register to post comments