Does lower cancellation rate reflect more prudent/realistic deposits required by the company? as opposed to writing cheap call options on houses

Another factor might be that only the people with better savings are lining up to sig

Wachovia Corp (the fourth-largest U.S. bank, on Tuesday nearly doubled the size of its previously reported first-quarter loss because of a write-down on three contracts in its life insurance portfolio.

The company is now reporting a net loss available to common stockholders of $708 million, or 36 cents per share. On April 14, it reported a loss of $393 million, or 20 cents per share.

Wachovia nearly doubles 1st-qtr loss to $708 mln
| Reuters

OK

ac, didn't you hear BB last night.

He wants the lenders to take losses!! HA HA HA!! Okay, seriously, if they are taking losses it will only be when the Fed is forced to lower interest rates even further. The lenders OWN the Fed, now. They make the decisions. Who the hell does BB think he is? The master in control? Or a puppet?

So what the hell is that string dangling from his head?

If anyone thought there was a pause signal from the Fed, BB removed that signal with his cry for help to the lenders last night.

Cry all you want Ben, they won't help you without cheaper money.

And by this time Thursday, the Fed will be financing Target consumers. Nice, huh!

$122... back to you AC

CR, your interpretation of DHI's cancellation rate as "good news" is very poor analysis - it's just plain retarded

RE chart porn:

Real Estate Market Reports - Zillow Local Info

It would be nice to know what DHI's gains were for selling call options (deposits) on the rapidly depreciating assets they're selling were. How much are they selling their calls for? Be nice if they were listed on the CBOE...

ok can we stop with the negative news stories now. I'd like to go back to cheering on equities.

If I am not mistaken, China still does not allow the private ownership of land (this is a major stumbling block for 'traditional' capitalist companies). Additionally, the "products" we build are far outside the Chinese standard (too big and beyond utilitarian). US-style residential construction cannot compete with the Chinese model, in China.

Oil has Bernanke-blasted its way up to $121.49 now.

Please explain to me how the Fed sets the price of oil. I'd be interested in that analysis. If you are talking about the relative decline in the dollar vs. other currencies, and how the oil is priced in dollars, please take the percentage decline in the dollar and match that against the function that describes the rise in oil prices and then describe how much is attributable to the Fed's policy of interest rate cuts.

Then I want you to describe the economic impacts of NOT lowering interest rates, and describe the impact to the consumer of the prices changes on other goods relative to oil, and the aspect of the loss of income as it describes the changes to the employement rate due to the higher interest rate. Please also include your anaysis of the effect of re-finances, and the impact of mortgage rates on general discretionary income spending.

Then please do the math describing demand fluctuations and contraints on the price of oil, and factor in the contributions of demand from China, India, and other emerging economies.

Or you can just continue to spew "waaahhh waahhhh wahhhh everything that happens is all Ben's fault" all over the place. In fact, why don't you just paste that on your clipboard so that you now no longer have to type, as well as not think.

Ipodius,

We don't need to do the math. The market does it for us.

You can believe in the magical powers of the fed to create prosperity but the rest of the world does not have to.

The world is placing a lower value on the U.S.A., just follow the value of the dollar.

Ipodius,

Have you ever seen a chart overlaying inflation and unemployment?

The relationship is different than the fed wants you to believe.

The fed says that monetary policy works with a lag. Guess what? So does inflation.

Ipodius-

yes you've got ALL the answers...

STFU

It's not a belief. It's a fact.

Careful now. I think Ipodius is taking flack because he continually states his beliefs as facts, yet dismisses other peoples beliefs because they are not facts.

That aside, Ipodius has good insight, imo.

yes you've got ALL the answers...STFU

LOL! From someone that doesn't post under a name. just killfile me anon. i take that as a compliment.

Banker - you gotta enter now. This market is hot baby, H O T ! Its only going one way! Its shaking off these party poopers and is rallying now.

ades,

Cutting to zero again? Were we there before and I missed it???

We will get there this time, IMO.

This matter of Bernanke positive inflation seems to be adding great value to the economy, which is obviously in evidence y the great news from D.R. Horton's latest quarterly results! This indicates the bottom is in and that cancellation rates will continue to decrease as Horton builds upon the balance sheet with cashflow from operations, which in turn will result in new buildings, new sales and profits from shareholders!! God Bless Bush & Bernanke for helping builders recover from slow economic growth!

Are you sure you want to stand by that market creates rates statement.

Absolutely boob. Let me ask you a question: have the mortgage rates responded to the Fed's drop in the FFR? Did they when Greenspan was at the helm?

Also, does the Fed declare a "rate" and that's that, or how does the acutal rate come about?

I have to admit that i do find Ipodius annoying. (from Finland)

It's global now!

Re: Please don't feed the troll.

Please don't feed the troll alert person either

Worried,

Here's something that worries me: someday, that gallon of gas and that Dell computer will cost the same in Finland and the U.S.A.

Worse yet, wages in China and the U.S. will converge.

If the above occurs as one might expect, how can a policy of inflation not bankrupt the average American?

Hey MS, should you be posting and annoying the crap out of everyone over at Barry's blog, or have they chased you away from there? People over there tell you to STFU all the time and you don't.

took all of one minute.......

Someone's a little testy today...

Ciao
MS

Someone's a little testy today...

no just waiting for a lunch appoitment to show up. and i only get annoyed with your posts when don't use the obvious brains you have and resort to being sloppy.

Re" Oil has Bernanke-blasted its way up to $121.49 now"

Is there a problem there?

S&P: Oil at $91 Year End, +/- $50
Calculated Risk: S&P: Oil at $91 Year End, +/- $50

The American economy is in a recession, which is projected to be short and mild, while oil will likely trade at $91 a barrel by the end of the year, though the range of that forecast is plus or minus $50, Standard & Poor's said Thursday.

Can't we just all get along?

Re: endless ranting

I see Elvis with 3 hits in a row, is that a rant?

There once was a time when ipod's posts were interesting.

S&P is up now on day. Did u all buy as I advised. Do I know the Bizarro world well or what?

ipodius writes:
Are you sure you want to stand by that market creates rates statement.

Absolutely boob. Let me ask you a question: have the mortgage rates responded to the Fed's drop in the FFR? Did they when Greenspan was at the helm?

Also, does the Fed declare a "rate" and that's that, or how does the acutal rate come about?

You are not actually serious are you? Are you suggesting that if the fed didn't exist, the core rate would be at 2%. also maybe you can tell us if the market is so good at setting rates what happened to all those triple AAA bonds. Your belif in the market is misplaced and nieve. The discussion is far to complicated for this space, but it is enough to say you are just wrong.

Re: I hope BB is not sitting around scratching his head...wondering why commodities are skyrocketing.

It sounds better if you say:

hope BB is not sitting around scratching his balls...wondering why commodities are skyrocketing.

I think only Bizarro is making sense today!

re: op ED piece in WSJ

Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York.

Didn't we just get Barton Biggs cheerleading from the same form yesterday??

at least they are consistent.

"it's not going to get worse"

but it's not going to get better for how long???

Thanks for that insightful analysis worth every penny paid.

Ciao
MS

The only thing she is probably right about is that inventories will stop increasing - at least until the Option Arm bomb hits.

I'm seeing anecdotal evidence that would-be sellers have changed their plans, and are now withdrawing houses from the market. This is just within the last few weeks. Unfortunately, however, this means that only distressed, desperate sellers will be in the market. And REOs. It will be a smaller, but much more price flexible inventory, which can only serve to allow prices to fall faster.

TENTH PERIODIC
MORTGAGE FRAUD CASE REPORT
TO THE MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION
http://www.marisolutions.com/pdfs/mba/mortgage-fraud-report-10th.pdf 

March 2008

For loans originated in 2005, Florida had a reported fraud rate nearly 70 percent above what it should have had (MFIFL/2005 = 169) and ranked third – or roughly half the reported fraud rate of Georgia (MFstate that year.

The highest MFI value for the 2007 loans to date is Florida at 215. Similarly, the
ninth and tenth ranked states, New York and Minnesota, have MFI values below
100, the expected or “average” MFI value. These results suggest that the 2007
fraud reports received to date are continuing the trend from last year in being more
uniformly spread among the states rather than being concentrated in just a few
states with problems dramatically more serious than the rest of the country, as
years 2005 and earlier demonstrate.
• As we began to notice last year, the stagnant and/or declining real estate markets in
Florida, Nevada and California have resulted in easier identification of mortgage
fraud. Borrowers unable to re-sell their property, end up becoming delinquent on
their loans, unmasking the misrepresentation(s) and therefore higher rates of
MIDEX reporting.
• Virginia makes its first appearance on our annual reports with an overall ranking of
seventh.
• Colorado, which ranked ninth in last year’s report, showed the most dramatic
change by ranking seventeenth on its 2007 book of business.

**>> It will likely take three to five years to uncover most of the fraud and misrepresentation in the 2007 book of business as MARI continues to receive
MIDEX reports on 2007 loans. During this period of time, many ARM loans will be
refinanced, potentially blocking discovery of some of these issues. In spite of these variables, it is still appropriate to look at the geographic distribution of fraud found in subprime loans to determine if it follows the same pattern found in loans taken as a whole.

As we stated last year, the current mortgage market conditions will have more
professionals chasing a smaller pool of conforming business. There will be even greater pressure on all industry players to generate volumes.

Dogs back to their vomit:

BlackRock to buy $15 billion in subprime debt from UBS - MarketWatch

Re: sterlingerl writes:
Article saying Merrill's level 3 assets surged 70% in Q1.

http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com...-billion-in-q1/

The Fed does not have enough reserves to take care of many of the nations largest banks, who as you can see, are OVER their ears on Level 2 and Level 3 ‘assets’, ...

GREAT STUFF THERE!!!!!!!!

Oil at new record, U.S. stocks rise on optimism

GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil at new record, U.S. stocks rise on optimism
| Reuters

You unlock this door with the key of imagination. Beyond it is another dimension, a dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. You're moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. It's a journey into a wondrous land, whose boundaries are that of imagination. That's a signpost up ahead, your next stop, the "Twilight Zone!"
Rod Serling

In other news, Merrill Lynch increased Level 3 assets by 70% to $82.4 billion (approx 3X shareholder's equity). If this isn't a screaming buy signal I don't know what is.

roflmao

i feel like a one-legged gimp who
always has to buy both shoes when all i need is one.

i always overpay

I believe in the american dream, so I just bought more skf! This pump is almost over, dump coming soon...

An important fact to consider is that Europe and many third-world countries have far better civic transportation options. Sure, gas is $5/gallon, but they only need to use a fraction of what your average US commuter needs every day.

Our whole suburbian lifestyle is rooted in the assumption of cheap fuel. We lack the mass transit infrastructure to support sprawl housing. This is going to be another whammy on housing prices, except in the inner cities and along existing transit lines.

I am sitting at an enclosed bus stop shelter. I see a man standing in the middle of the road, looking upwards, watching a flock of birds flying by.

Little does this man know but a truck is heading down on him,silently, but quickly.

Now, you see, I am a doctor. My job is not to give traffic advice. So I then see the man being hit by the truck.

So now my role comes fully into play. I leap out of the bus stop, dialing 911, rush to the aid of the man.

After the ambulance has taken the man away I start thinking about how we should immediately improve the system.

that says 200 dollars per barrel if...

Not if it's going there because the price is going up and money will pile in. Why? because it's going to 200 everybody knows that buy now are be priced out forever. All bubbles are the same.

ac: "It's starting to look like the hedge fund managers run the country now."

Along with the K Street crowd.

Good article from KITCO commentary..

Kitco - Commentaries - Darryl Robert Schoon

One wonders what evidence it would take to make AC and others here rethink their belief that higher oil and food prices are due solely to the fed and a weakening dollar. I mean, do any of you keep tabs on such details as world oil production for the past 10 years? How many of you can rattle off a list of countries that have been declining in production? A list of countries that have been increasing? Do you know the difference between crude+condensate vs NGLs? I bet Ipodius knows these things.

I bet Rob Dawg and AC and I Say No don't.

Rob-
Are you claiming that the rise of surburbia was NOT enabled mainly by the car and interstate highway system? That many outlying areas ignored building (or even retired) mass transit feeder systems because the expense relative to gas was too high? The LA and SF areas are two good examples.

How many new farther-afield McMansion areas do you think are served by sufficient bus and train lines? What other transportation options will those people have if gas hits $8/gallon?

Rob Dawg, it wasn't an "I'm smarter than you" post, it was a "show me you are evidence-based in you beliefs" and "show me you are informed enough to be making the enormous assertions you make".

So no, y'all have yet to demonstrate this - I'm not doing your work for you. Though, my questions were extremely basic - can hardly call it "work".

Why markets are up!
Fed taf-91 million today

Temporary Open Market Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York 

The NY FeD president-

Stephen Friedman is retired chairman of The Goldman Sachs Group and currently serves as chairman of Stone Point Capital, LLC.

He joined Goldman, Sachs & Co. in 1966 and became a partner in 1973. He was vice chairman and co-chief operating officer from 1987 to November 1990, and co-chairman or chairman from 1990 to 1994.

Mr. Friedman is chairman of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board and of the Intelligence Oversight Board. From December 2002 to December 2004, he served as assistant to President George W. Bush for Economic Policy and director of the National Economic Council.

Mr. Friedman received his B.A. from Cornell University and law degree from Columbia University Law School. He is currently a board member of The Goldman Sachs Group, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, The Aspen Institute and the Council on Foreign Relations.

January 2008

I say thier's a fox in the henhouse and he doesn't care about the eggs..

I can afford to live within my paycheck (without the optional savings deposit) at $3.65 pg gasoline ONLY by taking mass transit as close to work as possible, and then driving the rest of the way (I reverse commute). I walk or take transit all weekend, and rented in a neighborhood specifically so that I could do that.

In Atlanta (not the NE corridor).

I will either move closer to work (if I still have a job when my lease is up) or when I lose my job (I work for a RE Developer) get one in town and try to not drive at all.

If gas goes to $5 I am screwed.

PS: I own my car outright, and so I luckily don't have to factor in a car payment like most people. I can't imagine how we can go on like this without some fairly significant infrastructure upgrades in terms of transit alternatives.

Oh, and if gas goes below $3 a gallon it becomes a wash between the gas saved and the transit fare.

And like dorothy to the wizard, I say to Ben Bernanke "there's nothing in that bag for me is there?"...