They are still pulling salaries and they are still insulting people who knew better and still know better. Nothing has changed. Give me a break here. When Lereah says 'not only was I wrong but I had to ignore shouts and screams from people with advanced analysis and reams of data to the contrary to make my wrong predictions."
The fact that the housing bulls are now admitting their mistakes makes ME think that the worst has yet to happen.
What happens when BoA pulls out of the Countrywide deal and JPMorgan blows through $29 billion of the Fed's $40 billion in capital to make good on the Bear rescue?
I saw this coming before the experts. I saw this before Tanta or C, I had a dream, now the dream is like smoke drifting on the wind, drifting towards the next bubble, the bubble from positive inflation, the bubble that Bernanke is blowing, the same bubble Greenspan blew, which provided the smoke for my previous vision...
How come the daisy-chainers all say, "No one else knew..." when tens of thousands of smoes like me knew back in 2004 and discussed this with what were then new terms of recognition (liar-loans, NINJA, pump-n-dump and origination-to-fornication?
Why? Because they stole billions from currency holders... in advance.
If I had been paying attention I would have known that a high percentage of those low-teaser-rate loans would go into foreclosure and bring the whole house of greed tumbling down. But I wasnt paying attention.
Translation: "I'd rather look stupid than evil, and perhaps civilly or criminally liable."
Just the two of us
We can make it if we try
Just the two of us
Just the two of us
Building castles in the sky
Just the two of us
You and I
Cr makes a call- Subject Title means it must be Bill Withers day
How can we forget this classic by bill talking about how the fed, treasury and wall street is using me up! Of course I told them I wish you were in my shoes
My friends feel its their appointed duty,
To tell me, all you want to do is use me
My answer to all that use me stuff
Is I want to spread the news that if it feels this good getting used
Just keep on using me till you use me up
My brother sat me right down and he talked to me
He told me I ought not let you just walk on me
He meant well but when our talk was through
I said brother if you only knew youd wish that you were in my shoes
Just keep on using me until you use me up
Sometimes its true you really do abuse me
You get me in a crowd of high class people and act real rude to me
But oh! Baby when you love me I cant get enough
And I want to spread the news, if it feels this good getting used
You just keep on using me until you use me up
Talking 'bout you using people
It all depends on what you do
It aint too bad the way you using me
'Cause I sure am using you to do the things you do.
What amazed me is that even with the teaser rate interest only loans the payments were still unaffordable. The only way the prices made sense was with a built in assumption of another 20% increase in the prices...
Now so many of these loans are delinquent without ever hitting the first adjustment.
This is just getting started, too; around here median prices are still 10x median incomes, but 10 miles away home prices are down 30 to 40%.
R. Dawg's subtext: I had to ignore shouts and screams from people with advanced analysis and reams of data to the contrary...
It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.
I'd be surprised if U. Sinclair has not been cited before here but maybe it's time again to remind ourselves of how many experts were and are on the payroll.
A common interpretation of Castles Made of Sand lyrics is the message that sand is not water resistant (thus "Castles made of sand fall in the sea eventually"), not only the good things like love, dreams or life, but also the bads, like diseases, death and fears, as shown in the last part of the song.
wrt to Lereah, I think Mercutio might be on to something. at the very least, we know Lereah will be bearish long after the market has turned. let's check back in three years.
One of the most recent developments in Herodotus scholarship was made by the French ethnologist Michel Peissel. On his journeys to India and Pakistan, Peissel claims to have discovered an animal species that may finally illuminate one of the most "bizarre" passages in Herodotus' Histories. In Book 3, passages 102 to 105, Herodotus reports that a species of fox-sized, furry "ants" lives in one of the far eastern, Indian provinces of the Persian Empire. This region, Herodotus reports, is a sandy desert, and the sand there contains a wealth of fine gold dust. These giant ants, according to Herodotus, would often unearth the gold dust when digging their mounds and tunnels, and the people living in this province would then collect the precious dust. Now, Peissel says that in an isolated region of the Dansar Plateau between India and Pakistan there exists a species of marmot (a type of burrowing squirrel) that may solve the mystery of Herodotus' giant "ants". Much like the province that Herodotus describes, the ground of the Dansar Plateau is rich in gold dust. According to Peissel, he interviewed the Minaro tribal people who live in the Dansar Plateau, and they have confirmed that they have, for generations, been collecting the gold dust that the marmots bring to the surface when they are digging their underground burro...
That announcement that FNM got some more rope attached to the noose sure juiced up the market. CTX went from -5% to +5%. A casino has more predictable returns.
Billionaire Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is under investigation by the Connecticut attorney general for possible conflicts between its ownership of almost 20 percent of credit ratings company Moody's Corp. and his newly formed municipal bond insurance business.
Attorney General Richard Blumenthal said in an interview yesterday he is examining the ``clear and direct conflict of interest for Moody's to rate a company owned by such a significant Moody's shareholder.''
Moody's gave its top rating last week to Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp., created in December as existing bond insurers struggled to maintain their AAA ratings. A favorable rating for Berkshire by New York-based Moody's, or a lower rating for competitors including MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., may give Buffett's company an advantage.
We have been aware of this issue, and it has been very actively and immediately involved in our investigation,'' said Blumenthal, referring to a previously announced antitrust probe of ratings companies.This financial relationship is part and parcel of the issues involved in our antitrust investigation.'
barely: That announcement that FNM got some more rope attached to the noose sure juiced up the market. CTX went from -5% to +5%. A casino has more predictable returns.
From RGE monitor:
May 6: FannieMae Q1 net loss $2.19 billion; expects worse for next year. Cuts dividend, raises $6bn capital. Shareholder equity now below 0--> regulator said it will loosen restrictions on Fannie Mae's capital once the company has raised the $6 billion. FreddieMac reports May 14. (emphasis mine).
The shareholders were sure celebrating their sub-zero equity today!
You forget that the optimism has been killed with RE too. Some young genius will not develop that next killer product. Funding that should have been held in reserve and allocated for some incredible invention was used for a McMansion. That invention died in the lab. Thousands of our countries best and brightest learned that our country embraces moral hazard, and took the short course of wealth creation -- IOUs. Now we have palaces but forgot to people them with noblemen or noblewomen. Instead we have gluttonous, hedonistic countrymen who eat garbage, think garbage, live in palaces decorated like garbage, and continue to fill their minds with garbage. This while their mailbox backs-up with bills, invoices, and past dues. Amerika is past due for a terrific and terrifying reckoning.
Slow accretion, savings, continual training in a skill base, character, collateral, capacity to produce. Everyone laugh-grimaces at the pathetic fool who would follow that path now.
Truly what have we become? Are there no mirrors in this country?
Why get mad at people who simply did what they were paid to do, i.e., boost and shill for their employers?
I really think the anger should remain firmly focused on our government servants: on the Fed who ignored the destructive consequences of their interest policy and on the Congress & President who enacted that entirely unjustifiable house-flipper's tax exemption of $250K (or $500K for married couples) for houses owned a mere two years. It is not possible to overstate the power of tax policy. If you totally eliminate taxes on one type of income, where are people going to direct their investments? These actions were taken by people who ostensibly work for US.
OPEC was talking up $200 oil last week... and for some reason I thought there was a female analyst at some-thing-or-other firm that was also talking about $200 oil a week ago too...
Now we have palaces but forgot to people them with noblemen or noblewomen. Instead we have gluttonous, hedonistic countrymen who eat garbage, think garbage, live in palaces decorated like garbage, and continue to fill their minds with garbage.
You should read more history. The vast majority of nobles were also gluttonous, hedonistic, morons living off the accumulated weath of their martially competent ancestors.
Ovid (I think it was Ovid, it's been a long time since college) had a pretty good rant about it 2k+ years ago.
Walter, I have a different explaination than your having your head in the sand. My hypothesis is that you just are not very bright. I don't know if your intelligence declined with age, or if your dimmished intellect is the result of drugs or disease, or, most probably, you never were very bright. You most likely obtained work as 'expert' during the prior 40 years by telling people what they wanted to hear. If you had any self respect, rather than incorrectly assert that 'most everyone else' was also wrong, you would lock yourself in your room, or put a bullet in your head.
OT: I read the Fannie Mae transcripts today and I thought there were a couple of blockbusters in there
It is pretty long i'll just cut the few sentences that I thought were pretty amazing and people can read the rest at the link.
"First to help borrowers, who are current on their loans, but trapped and unable to refinance into the better loans that are available, we will allow refinancing of Fannie Mae loans that are upto 20% underwater and to safe, affordable fully amortizing loans"
"we are teaming up with the Self-Help Credit Union, one of our long time partners and some of the worst hit communities in order to get families into REO foreclosed properties on a rent-to-own basis. "
"And finally effective immediately we will buy new jumbo conforming loans at a price which is flat to conforming or portfolio asset acquisitions through the end of the year. What this means is that though jumbos are not TBA eligible, but we think they should be, we will be pricing them as if they were TBA eligible. "
"We will also institute concurrently with that a set of prudent lending guidelines to ensure the jumbo borrowers can own and not just occupy those homes in high cost areas."
Looks like some borrowers will get principal reductions, some renters will get some new rentals, jumbo guidelines look like they are tightening at the same time the jumbo spread appear to be narrowing.
Are not the best deals in real estate in those countries with the highest inflation? I hear russia has 12% inflation and china has 8-10% inflation. Inflation is going to stay hot there for a little longer even if the US goes into recession. Inflation seems to lag the general economy.
OT,I saw a copy of Bernanke's "essays on the Great Depression" at a used bookstore today for $2.It was next to a copy of "Vampire Erotica" by Poppy Z. Brite for $2.50 on the clearance rack.The Vampire book is HOT.
Stone,
Instead of looking at its place on the bookshelf, you might want to pick it up and educate yourself. It's considered one of the best ever written and has valid information relative to the current state of the economy. Stop with the ad hominem attacks and offer something constructive.
As for Cr, I like your site a lot but this article was kind of a cheap shot. Let's get back to talking about the issues. You guys dodged the consequences of Bernanke going all in with the Democrats in the bailout game. How about an article on unexpected consequences of that path. I'll write it for you if you like.
It's a good book. You should have bought it and read it. It would give you an idea of why he is doing what he is doing, and what he is likely to do in the future.
Instead of looking at its place on the bookshelf, you might want to pick it up and educate yourself. It's considered one of the best ever written and has valid information relative to the current state of the economy. Stop with the ad hominem attacks and offer something constructive.
Bernanke thinks that debt can be used to remedy the consequences of debt. How brilliant and original.
Here's constructive: Prosecute fraud, follow the rule of law, including the constitution. Start with that, the rest will follow. Unfortunately the consequences of the past will not be avoided, no matter how "constructive" we are.
Bernanke thinks that debt can be used to remedy the consequences of debt. How brilliant and original.
You may find fault with the premise because it sounds silly as written, and it may not be a good long-term strategy on the whole, but I'd be hard pressed to disagree with the theory. As long as you're willing to create large-scale, real inflation, and your currency doesn't collapse in the process, you should be able to force money out of fixed-return "safe" investments, such as US Treasuries. I don't think you could argue that treasuries (or RMBS's paying fixed rates, for that matter) will be attractive investments if inflation is at 20%, for example.
Create enough inflation, and people will move their money out of fixed-return US dollar denominated assets. In an isolated world, such as America in the 30's, that would mean into US businesses. In a globalized world, that will likely mean into non-US businesses. Either way, you won't have a problem with US dollars sitting in US treasuries and savings accounts.
I agree with jm: it's valuable, if not essential, for any Americans trying to preserve savings to understand what Benny and the Fed are trying to do, so that you can position yourself accordingly. Just my opinion, though.
This is such BLEEPING NONSENSE! As a layperson, not an expert, yadda yadda, in OC, I was already telling everyone I knew in 2004 onward that the housing thing was going to bust. It was going to bust because the loans were bleeping stupid. How did I know that? Because I got all the bleeping mailers that promised the most stupid shit rates and terms I'd ever seen. I watched people take more and more equity out and joyfully spend it, never mind that their mortgage payments went up every time. Gah!
I don't know what these bleepin' experts were doing (or smoking) but they should have called it. What a load of crap.
Mistakes were made. Some people want to play the blame game. They aren't real Americans. We need to put the past behind us and move forward together, because that's why this is a great country. God bless America. Thank you and good night.
I "recognized" this as a problem back in 1999. I'm not in the RE field, don't own a home and yet common sense prevails over any RE experience you may have. Obviously the the pros know less than you, the difference is that they arbitrage millions of dollars in selling books and junk to people who have less of a brain than they do. The bigger fool is the person who listens to their garbage.
I really think the anger should remain firmly focused on our government servants: on the Fed who ignored the destructive consequences of their interest policy and on the Congress & President who enacted that entirely unjustifiable house-flipper's tax exemption of $250K (or $500K for married couples) for houses owned a mere two years.
Agreed that much if not all our anger should be directed there.
The idea that cap gains on residences should be tax free is repulsive. Given that improvements depreciate, all gains come from land appreciation, which John Stuart Mill pointed out centuries ago is a windfall that the landowner reaps in exchange for nothing. Hence it should, in fact, be taxed at 100%.
Falling interest rates raise the current value of any asset. Home prices rise. The seller has a capital gain, the buyer has a lower expected return.
Add to this the change in mortgages. Used to be a bank kept a mortgage, making money off the interest paid. Selling off the loan generates immediate fees, but not a long term income stream.
Only so many prime buyers are out there, and once they run out, lower quality loans are needed to generate the fees the bank or mortgage broker has come to rely on.
Gimmicky teaser rates or 0% interest loans are used to expand the pool of potential buyers, further raising home prices, which now places even the prime buyer at risk. A prudent buyer can no longer afford a boring standard 30 year fixed rate mortgage.
Personally, I suspect the mortgage crisis has little to do with the Federal Reserve and a lot to do with banking going from interest income based to fee based.
Eighth.
The fact that these guys are now admitting they were wrong makes me think the end may be nearer than we expect.
Lereah has some big stones to be talking about housing now. If he had any credibility he would have said this working for the NAR.
They are still pulling salaries and they are still insulting people who knew better and still know better. Nothing has changed. Give me a break here. When Lereah says 'not only was I wrong but I had to ignore shouts and screams from people with advanced analysis and reams of data to the contrary to make my wrong predictions."
You can buy Lereah's book used on Amazon for $0.35!
Amazon.com: David Lereah
"I wasn't paying attention."
He doesn't say why he wasn't paying attention, but the answer is obvious: greed.
Umm, wasn't he being paid to pay attention? I mean is not that the core of market analysis, paying attention to what is going on?
Unbelievable that they are also claiming that no one else noticed either.
None of us realized until it was too late???? FU Lereah & the Realwhores.
Then why the F%$#@ is this clown and other realtwhores employed?
Anyone with a little common sense could see this happening.
For Lehreah and his ilk, we should recognize the need for angry mobs in modern America.
The fact that the housing bulls are now admitting their mistakes makes ME think that the worst has yet to happen.
What happens when BoA pulls out of the Countrywide deal and JPMorgan blows through $29 billion of the Fed's $40 billion in capital to make good on the Bear rescue?
I saw this coming before the experts. I saw this before Tanta or C, I had a dream, now the dream is like smoke drifting on the wind, drifting towards the next bubble, the bubble from positive inflation, the bubble that Bernanke is blowing, the same bubble Greenspan blew, which provided the smoke for my previous vision...
How come the daisy-chainers all say, "No one else knew..." when tens of thousands of smoes like me knew back in 2004 and discussed this with what were then new terms of recognition (liar-loans, NINJA, pump-n-dump and origination-to-fornication?
Why? Because they stole billions from currency holders... in advance.
NEVER! EVER!
Let them see you take responsibility.
You might not get your bailout...
"That got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late."
What a POS!
If I had been paying attention I would have known that a high percentage of those low-teaser-rate loans would go into foreclosure and bring the whole house of greed tumbling down. But I wasnt paying attention.
Translation: "I'd rather look stupid than evil, and perhaps civilly or criminally liable."
Lereah reminds me of a big kid who had to share a bedroom with a couple of messy younger brothers.
Fancy bay area golf course....
two golfer's golfing
how is this market going to recover, asks one.
I/O's said the other.
but that's a pro's loan!
not anymore,
this won't end well.
Nope
OT- Mood music
Just the 2 of us-Bill Withers
YouTube -
Snip
Just the two of us
We can make it if we try
Just the two of us
Just the two of us
Building castles in the sky
Just the two of us
You and I
Cr makes a call- Subject Title means it must be Bill Withers day
How can we forget this classic by bill talking about how the fed, treasury and wall street is using me up! Of course I told them I wish you were in my shoes
YouTube - Bill Withers - use me
Snip
Use Me
My friends feel its their appointed duty,
To tell me, all you want to do is use me
My answer to all that use me stuff
Is I want to spread the news that if it feels this good getting used
Just keep on using me till you use me up
My brother sat me right down and he talked to me
He told me I ought not let you just walk on me
He meant well but when our talk was through
I said brother if you only knew youd wish that you were in my shoes
Just keep on using me until you use me up
Sometimes its true you really do abuse me
You get me in a crowd of high class people and act real rude to me
But oh! Baby when you love me I cant get enough
And I want to spread the news, if it feels this good getting used
You just keep on using me until you use me up
Talking 'bout you using people
It all depends on what you do
It aint too bad the way you using me
'Cause I sure am using you to do the things you do.
What are secondary liar loans?
There's no crying in Real Estate!
What amazed me is that even with the teaser rate interest only loans the payments were still unaffordable. The only way the prices made sense was with a built in assumption of another 20% increase in the prices...
Now so many of these loans are delinquent without ever hitting the first adjustment.
This is just getting started, too; around here median prices are still 10x median incomes, but 10 miles away home prices are down 30 to 40%.
Since economists aren't scientists, anyone with enough money or a political goal can always find one to say the `right thing'.
R. Dawg's subtext: I had to ignore shouts and screams from people with advanced analysis and reams of data to the contrary...
It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.
I'd be surprised if U. Sinclair has not been cited before here but maybe it's time again to remind ourselves of how many experts were and are on the payroll.
Thankful for alt media, blogs and CR!
Read David Lereah's comments and I am ... speechless.
Castles Made of Sand
jimi hendrix
YouTube - Castles Made of Sand- jimi hendrix
A common interpretation of Castles Made of Sand lyrics is the message that sand is not water resistant (thus "Castles made of sand fall in the sea eventually"), not only the good things like love, dreams or life, but also the bads, like diseases, death and fears, as shown in the last part of the song.
wrt to Lereah, I think Mercutio might be on to something. at the very least, we know Lereah will be bearish long after the market has turned. let's check back in three years.
oooh this quote just gets more applicable every day:
"It is hard to get a man to understand something if his living depends on him not understanding it"
-Upton Sinclair
So you see, there was absolutely no way they couldanode, when noding means biting the hand that feeds.
Who was the guy who said that deficits do not matter because we owe the money to ourselves?
Apparently, during the Roaring Twenties the banks had very loose lending standards as the stock market rose.
They are 100 percent right. That will never happens again. Luckily, the Dow will not drop 90 percent.
Balls. Rope. You see where I'm going with this.
The hedge funds like explosive action so they can take large positions.
With no booms that turn into bubbles what would they do?
This sums it up best:
One of the most recent developments in Herodotus scholarship was made by the French ethnologist Michel Peissel. On his journeys to India and Pakistan, Peissel claims to have discovered an animal species that may finally illuminate one of the most "bizarre" passages in Herodotus' Histories. In Book 3, passages 102 to 105, Herodotus reports that a species of fox-sized, furry "ants" lives in one of the far eastern, Indian provinces of the Persian Empire. This region, Herodotus reports, is a sandy desert, and the sand there contains a wealth of fine gold dust. These giant ants, according to Herodotus, would often unearth the gold dust when digging their mounds and tunnels, and the people living in this province would then collect the precious dust. Now, Peissel says that in an isolated region of the Dansar Plateau between India and Pakistan there exists a species of marmot (a type of burrowing squirrel) that may solve the mystery of Herodotus' giant "ants". Much like the province that Herodotus describes, the ground of the Dansar Plateau is rich in gold dust. According to Peissel, he interviewed the Minaro tribal people who live in the Dansar Plateau, and they have confirmed that they have, for generations, been collecting the gold dust that the marmots bring to the surface when they are digging their underground burro...
SDSU drug bust
Criminal Justice student arrested says, 'will this affect my ability to get a job in law enforcement'
uhhh, yes.... but the FED might be perfect for you.
That announcement that FNM got some more rope attached to the noose sure juiced up the market. CTX went from -5% to +5%. A casino has more predictable returns.
Japan down 800 points...
I hope that someday we return to a competence-based society, but I see no signs yet.
wally, these is still fading hope:
Billionaire Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is under investigation by the Connecticut attorney general for possible conflicts between its ownership of almost 20 percent of credit ratings company Moody's Corp. and his newly formed municipal bond insurance business.
Attorney General Richard Blumenthal said in an interview yesterday he is examining the ``clear and direct conflict of interest for Moody's to rate a company owned by such a significant Moody's shareholder.''
Moody's gave its top rating last week to Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp., created in December as existing bond insurers struggled to maintain their AAA ratings. A favorable rating for Berkshire by New York-based Moody's, or a lower rating for competitors including MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., may give Buffett's company an advantage.
We have been aware of this issue, and it has been very actively and immediately involved in our investigation,'' said Blumenthal, referring to a previously announced antitrust probe of ratings companies.This financial relationship is part and parcel of the issues involved in our antitrust investigation.'
Oh, not this guy again.
Please Mr. Buffett, say it ain't so...
"Behind every great fortune lies a great crime."
For the longest time, so many thought you were only the smartest investor in the history of mankind.
barely: That announcement that FNM got some more rope attached to the noose sure juiced up the market. CTX went from -5% to +5%. A casino has more predictable returns.
From RGE monitor:
May 6: FannieMae Q1 net loss $2.19 billion; expects worse for next year. Cuts dividend, raises $6bn capital. Shareholder equity now below 0--> regulator said it will loosen restrictions on Fannie Mae's capital once the company has raised the $6 billion. FreddieMac reports May 14. (emphasis mine).
The shareholders were sure celebrating their sub-zero equity today!
YouTube - Ron Paul advisor Peter Schiff's economic forecast
He node.
"The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams."
Satyajit Das's Blog - Fear & Loathing in Financial Products
TREASURIES-Bonds rise as Fannie results renew credit fears
TREASURIES-Bonds rise as Fannie results renew credit fears
| Reuters
"Super-spike" could lift oil to $200: Goldman
Super-spike could lift oil to $200: Goldman
| Reuters
You forget that the optimism has been killed with RE too. Some young genius will not develop that next killer product. Funding that should have been held in reserve and allocated for some incredible invention was used for a McMansion. That invention died in the lab. Thousands of our countries best and brightest learned that our country embraces moral hazard, and took the short course of wealth creation -- IOUs. Now we have palaces but forgot to people them with noblemen or noblewomen. Instead we have gluttonous, hedonistic countrymen who eat garbage, think garbage, live in palaces decorated like garbage, and continue to fill their minds with garbage. This while their mailbox backs-up with bills, invoices, and past dues. Amerika is past due for a terrific and terrifying reckoning.
Slow accretion, savings, continual training in a skill base, character, collateral, capacity to produce. Everyone laugh-grimaces at the pathetic fool who would follow that path now.
Truly what have we become? Are there no mirrors in this country?
Why get mad at people who simply did what they were paid to do, i.e., boost and shill for their employers?
I really think the anger should remain firmly focused on our government servants: on the Fed who ignored the destructive consequences of their interest policy and on the Congress & President who enacted that entirely unjustifiable house-flipper's tax exemption of $250K (or $500K for married couples) for houses owned a mere two years. It is not possible to overstate the power of tax policy. If you totally eliminate taxes on one type of income, where are people going to direct their investments? These actions were taken by people who ostensibly work for US.
I thought this $200 oil story was a couple weeks old? Why is news getting recycled?
YLSP writes:
I thought this $200 oil story was a couple weeks old? Why is news getting recycled?
"Super-spike" could lift oil to $200: Goldman
Tue May 6, 2008 2:01pm EDT
Not that old !
First
These actions were taken by people who ostensibly work for US.
And so they did. Some of us, anyway.
Not you? Oh, well, maybe you're not "one of us"
OPEC was talking up $200 oil last week... and for some reason I thought there was a female analyst at some-thing-or-other firm that was also talking about $200 oil a week ago too...
Yeah! Like the man (Walter Hahn) says, the "whole House o' Greed" be tumbling down now!
"Japan down 800 points"
What chart are you looking at? Something from Jan?
A "mea culpa" is more believable if not combined with an accusation about others' culpability that can be immediately disproven.
Why liars can't just apologize for their past lies, without feeling compelled to embellish the apology with new lies, must be part of the pathology.
Now we have palaces but forgot to people them with noblemen or noblewomen. Instead we have gluttonous, hedonistic countrymen who eat garbage, think garbage, live in palaces decorated like garbage, and continue to fill their minds with garbage.
You should read more history. The vast majority of nobles were also gluttonous, hedonistic, morons living off the accumulated weath of their martially competent ancestors.
Ovid (I think it was Ovid, it's been a long time since college) had a pretty good rant about it 2k+ years ago.
The only thing stranger than an American admitting he's wrong is one than means it.
Didn't Greenspan call the bottom in 2006?
OT
CONJURE'S FUN FACTS
Conjure says, "If you enjoy making love to alligators, it's still legal in Florida."
An Emotional Legislative Session Winds Down
Walter, I have a different explaination than your having your head in the sand. My hypothesis is that you just are not very bright. I don't know if your intelligence declined with age, or if your dimmished intellect is the result of drugs or disease, or, most probably, you never were very bright. You most likely obtained work as 'expert' during the prior 40 years by telling people what they wanted to hear. If you had any self respect, rather than incorrectly assert that 'most everyone else' was also wrong, you would lock yourself in your room, or put a bullet in your head.
OT...Apparently, folks are choosing Disney over Vegas...
Sudden Debt: Viva Las Vegas!
OT...If only Markit had an Alt-A index
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: WaMu's Suspect Mortgage Pool
Conjure says, "If you enjoy making love to alligators, it's still legal in Florida."
What does Mrs. Mozillo have do with this?
Wasn't it Bill Withers who sang:
Me and Mrs. Tanman,
We got a thing going on?
OT: I read the Fannie Mae transcripts today and I thought there were a couple of blockbusters in there
It is pretty long i'll just cut the few sentences that I thought were pretty amazing and people can read the rest at the link.
"First to help borrowers, who are current on their loans, but trapped and unable to refinance into the better loans that are available, we will allow refinancing of Fannie Mae loans that are upto 20% underwater and to safe, affordable fully amortizing loans"
"we are teaming up with the Self-Help Credit Union, one of our long time partners and some of the worst hit communities in order to get families into REO foreclosed properties on a rent-to-own basis. "
"And finally effective immediately we will buy new jumbo conforming loans at a price which is flat to conforming or portfolio asset acquisitions through the end of the year. What this means is that though jumbos are not TBA eligible, but we think they should be, we will be pricing them as if they were TBA eligible. "
"We will also institute concurrently with that a set of prudent lending guidelines to ensure the jumbo borrowers can own and not just occupy those homes in high cost areas."
Fannie Mae, Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript -- Seeking Alpha
Looks like some borrowers will get principal reductions, some renters will get some new rentals, jumbo guidelines look like they are tightening at the same time the jumbo spread appear to be narrowing.
Re: 20 Visitors Online
The bottom is in index and market is taking off for the moon, because no one cares about problems, they just want more lotto tickets!
Are not the best deals in real estate in those countries with the highest inflation? I hear russia has 12% inflation and china has 8-10% inflation. Inflation is going to stay hot there for a little longer even if the US goes into recession. Inflation seems to lag the general economy.
OT,I saw a copy of Bernanke's "essays on the Great Depression" at a used bookstore today for $2.It was next to a copy of "Vampire Erotica" by Poppy Z. Brite for $2.50 on the clearance rack.The Vampire book is HOT.
Stone,
Instead of looking at its place on the bookshelf, you might want to pick it up and educate yourself. It's considered one of the best ever written and has valid information relative to the current state of the economy. Stop with the ad hominem attacks and offer something constructive.
As for Cr, I like your site a lot but this article was kind of a cheap shot. Let's get back to talking about the issues. You guys dodged the consequences of Bernanke going all in with the Democrats in the bailout game. How about an article on unexpected consequences of that path. I'll write it for you if you like.
It's a good book. You should have bought it and read it. It would give you an idea of why he is doing what he is doing, and what he is likely to do in the future.
Instead of looking at its place on the bookshelf, you might want to pick it up and educate yourself. It's considered one of the best ever written and has valid information relative to the current state of the economy. Stop with the ad hominem attacks and offer something constructive.
Bernanke thinks that debt can be used to remedy the consequences of debt. How brilliant and original.
Here's constructive: Prosecute fraud, follow the rule of law, including the constitution. Start with that, the rest will follow. Unfortunately the consequences of the past will not be avoided, no matter how "constructive" we are.
Bernanke thinks that debt can be used to remedy the consequences of debt. How brilliant and original.
You may find fault with the premise because it sounds silly as written, and it may not be a good long-term strategy on the whole, but I'd be hard pressed to disagree with the theory. As long as you're willing to create large-scale, real inflation, and your currency doesn't collapse in the process, you should be able to force money out of fixed-return "safe" investments, such as US Treasuries. I don't think you could argue that treasuries (or RMBS's paying fixed rates, for that matter) will be attractive investments if inflation is at 20%, for example.
Create enough inflation, and people will move their money out of fixed-return US dollar denominated assets. In an isolated world, such as America in the 30's, that would mean into US businesses. In a globalized world, that will likely mean into non-US businesses. Either way, you won't have a problem with US dollars sitting in US treasuries and savings accounts.
I agree with jm: it's valuable, if not essential, for any Americans trying to preserve savings to understand what Benny and the Fed are trying to do, so that you can position yourself accordingly. Just my opinion, though.
This is such BLEEPING NONSENSE! As a layperson, not an expert, yadda yadda, in OC, I was already telling everyone I knew in 2004 onward that the housing thing was going to bust. It was going to bust because the loans were bleeping stupid. How did I know that? Because I got all the bleeping mailers that promised the most stupid shit rates and terms I'd ever seen. I watched people take more and more equity out and joyfully spend it, never mind that their mortgage payments went up every time. Gah!
I don't know what these bleepin' experts were doing (or smoking) but they should have called it. What a load of crap.
Memo to Ben's Helicopter.
From Scientific Pursuits
If you drop them from high enough, they will bounce.
ps. "them" ain't dollars either.
Mistakes were made. Some people want to play the blame game. They aren't real Americans. We need to put the past behind us and move forward together, because that's why this is a great country. God bless America. Thank you and good night.
They're a band of fools!!!
I "recognized" this as a problem back in 1999. I'm not in the RE field, don't own a home and yet common sense prevails over any RE experience you may have. Obviously the the pros know less than you, the difference is that they arbitrage millions of dollars in selling books and junk to people who have less of a brain than they do. The bigger fool is the person who listens to their garbage.
Hey that's what economists get paid to do: not pay attention. Things seem better that way.
anotherstupid: yeah, to quote the late lamented (still alive but dead to the media) Rumsfeld: "things happen." What a brain!
Dean Baker, a liberal economist, called both the housing bubble and the tech bubble.
flaminia wrote,
I really think the anger should remain firmly focused on our government servants: on the Fed who ignored the destructive consequences of their interest policy and on the Congress & President who enacted that entirely unjustifiable house-flipper's tax exemption of $250K (or $500K for married couples) for houses owned a mere two years.
Agreed that much if not all our anger should be directed there.
The idea that cap gains on residences should be tax free is repulsive. Given that improvements depreciate, all gains come from land appreciation, which John Stuart Mill pointed out centuries ago is a windfall that the landowner reaps in exchange for nothing. Hence it should, in fact, be taxed at 100%.
Falling interest rates raise the current value of any asset. Home prices rise. The seller has a capital gain, the buyer has a lower expected return.
Add to this the change in mortgages. Used to be a bank kept a mortgage, making money off the interest paid. Selling off the loan generates immediate fees, but not a long term income stream.
Only so many prime buyers are out there, and once they run out, lower quality loans are needed to generate the fees the bank or mortgage broker has come to rely on.
Gimmicky teaser rates or 0% interest loans are used to expand the pool of potential buyers, further raising home prices, which now places even the prime buyer at risk. A prudent buyer can no longer afford a boring standard 30 year fixed rate mortgage.
Personally, I suspect the mortgage crisis has little to do with the Federal Reserve and a lot to do with banking going from interest income based to fee based.