I disagree about sales declines all year, once the FHA bailout gets squashed. Lenders will throw in the towel, foreclose, and slash prices to clear inventory driving up sales.
You may find WCI's earnings report very interesting. Over 90% of their sales came from liquidating specs at significant discounts. I doubt other HBs spec sale percentage was as high, but nonetheless shows that a much higher percentage of current sales is coming from liquidating inventory at HUGE discounts. DR Horton derived a material percentage of revenues from liquidating UNAUCTION homes this quarter. It was the same for many builders.
Such deep discounted spec liquidation sales are not likely to cancel causing for current low cancellation rates. Expect cancellation rates to increase materially as spec inventories contract going forward.
added to my leveraged long equity position on news of Valejo bankruptcy on last thread and making money on that already. adding here on this pending home sales decline number. Hopefully, there is more bad news and earnings today so that stocks will really rocket!
As I noted (off topic) in an earlier comments section, pending sales had been steady from September to January, but are now turning lower again. The revision to February was nearly as large as the drop in March, so pending sales in March were actually about 1.9% lower than expected. Though mortgage applications for purchase were up in the latest week, they have been in a down-trend since February. All of this is right in line with reports from realtors and builders that we got no bounce in sales at the beginning of the heavy selling season.
Bizarro - You're in LUCK! Tomorrow you'll get retail sales AND weekly claims numbers that should be really BULLISH, given the productivity gains numbers that suggest employment heading into the tank.
The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported that residential home sales by realtors in the Greater Las Vegas area totaled 2,006 in April, up 19.6% from last Aprils pace. SF sales were up 29.9% from last April to 1,794, while condo sales were down 28.4% to 212. The median SF sales price last month was $235,875, down 22.9% from a year ago. Last months median SF sales price was the lowest since February 2004.
President George W. Bush warned that he would veto legislation aimed at shoring up the housing market which is slated for a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday.
"We are committed to a good housing bill that will help folks stay in their house as opposed to a housing bill that will reward speculators and lenders," Bush said after meeting with House Republicans. "I will veto the bill that's moving through the House today if it makes it to my desk."
it seems like we can either have low sales and moderate prices (homeowners still relunctant to sell unless offered a 'good' price), or higher sales and even lower prices (liquidation). so the NAR will always be able to spin one of those numbers and try to ignore the other.
There is a tremendous buildup of future forclosures in Southern Calif. All the realtor/speculators are able to postpone formal forclosure on multiple houses, while still collecting rent. Others are living free for months and months as the banks take their time getting through the stack. Also, cities are charging banks for upkeep, and vandalism to empty homes, mean that many banks would rather the residents stay in the house for free to prevent degradation, vandalism, and upkeep fees......the water is building up behind the dam fast as enough forclosures move to get Zillow prices to around true sales transactions and give entire neighbhoods real-time realization that it's useless to try to sell. There are vast swaths of new homes, thousands of them, built over the last three years where virtually EVERY buyer is upsidedown. Even if they can afford resets, any divorce, jobloss, sickeness means forclosure.....How the GSE's can lend money at these rates (roughly the same as during the boom when nobody defaulted because every tough spot was solved with a quick profitable sale) is beyond me.....anyone calling a bottom is either stupid or a liar.
Just recall Greenspan's call of a bottom in OCT of 2006!!!!! The ex-fed chairman for christ sake!!!! Supposed to be an expert...missing the easiest call of the last 2 centuries....with Bernanke calling for no spillover 6 months later!!! Things are getting very scary!
Yun said that sales were expected to pick up later this summer, "We'll see banks getting more well priced foreclosures on the market and reality setting in for sellers who didn't unload in the spring. Buyers will come back when there are more homes they can actually afford given the reality of the new mortgage market."
--
"Existing home sales will probably decline all year - the opposite of the NAR forecast."
At least in one very important area NAR has a better record of stating the facts than CR's -- Housing Demand. Few months ago NAR admitted that household formation, the primary indicator of the demand, dropped by 50% in 2007.
energyecon, 15 bio 10 yr auction today, and the street is not well set up for it and needs to create a short base before 1pm.
I don't have time to go back and look at the data, but I would think a pending m-o-m sales decline in March is somewhere between very rare and unprecedented.
Thanks - I recall reading something about upcoming auctions but did not realize it was today on the 10 year - and my understanding is that March is the kickoff of the summer selling season (usually)...
"10 fastest growing real estate markets"
"Yes, even amid the housing crisis, parts of the U.S. are still expected to post price gains in the coming year, according to Money Magazine. Here's where to look.
1 of 10 McAllen, Texas"
What are you trying to say Rob Dawg. Harding was a great president. Doesn't bode well for the next guy though. Obama Clinton or MCCain it doesn't look like they will make all the way through if history is any guide.
Obama is an interesting character. Too bad that doesn't count. He's also just what McCain needs, as opposition. Wall St would crater if Obama got elected. No need to worry, though. His performance will make Dukakis' loss look like strong showing. Just watch.
sterlingerl, that's a funny conception considering the populist war path HRC has been on lately. But I guess most people acknowledge she doesn't really mean any of it. Either way, the primaries barely changed the race at all. Hardly a market mover.
That said, the April (not the recently released March figures) pending sales index based upon a, so far, accurate sample of 22 metro markets is up, even on a seasonally adjusted basis. You can expect NAR/Yun to chirp loudly in a month when this data is released. The problem is that the conversion ratio of pending to closed sales is declining because of tightening lending standards. Also, much of the pending sale buildup is simply contract extentions to give the buyer more time to try and find financing. Sellers really have no other choice.
Bottom line: Keep an eye on the seasonally adjusted sales numbers.
What the hell does that mean, and what do you base it on? We all have our political opinions, but just repeating the same bullshit CNBC lines doesn't back them up. Argument by assertion doesn't cut it.
You are wrong, Obama will win, the republicans have too many headwinds and McCain is a poor candidate. Socccer moms became security moms and will be forclosure moms, they will vote dem.
Tim - Very large 10 year treasury auction today. The dealers need to sell ahead of the auction at 1pm to set up short so they can absorb the supply (and also hopefully create a price concession). Hence the rates market being off a bit on a day when stocks are also looking a little soft (not something we've exactly seen a lot of lately).
"What the hell does that mean, and what do you base it on?"
Massive tax increases on investment gains and dividends. The selling fury after his win will be record setting. Long term, I can't say, and I don't care since I trade.
Then he has protectionist tendencies and corp tax increase platforms. Good for bears like me, but afraid I won't be able to cash in.
Obama will fuel a savage Reagan democrat turncoat run. Hillary voters will bail at alarming rates. Just watch.
Given that Obama plans to raise capital gains and dividend taxes rather considerably, that is not something you plug into a valuation model and come up with higher stock prices. On the other hand, a little income redistribution away from the top 1% to the middle class could be beneficial for the economy.
McCain is no Reagan. Wall Street think things are great but no one else does this will drive the dems to victory despite themselves. Bush did more damage than you think, look at the last midterms.
you all are assuming that we will even be allowed an election.....
If it appears that johnny mcbush is not going to win then I'm positive we will have some national emergency that puts off the elections until later.
Anyone that thinks the current administration is just going to hand it over to a woman or a black (that is unfortunately how most voters see it) doesn't understand how power works in this country.
Ask yourself this question:
Who is Johnny Mc Bush's running mate???
At this point in every election we have known that.......that we do not at this point tells me that the Repubs. will somehow, some way install Cheney as his running mate. I do not know if there are limitations of terms a VP can serve. You can bet Rove et al. have already figured that out.
Sounds totally unrealistic???
So does the market where it's at now....
will, the bond market has responded like Maria Sharapova's lap dog every time equities have even a mildly bad day - snapped to attention and taken rates lower, even though bond traders like to think they're in charge. Not happening today though, with a record size 10 yr auction about to come off.
Based on what I read here, Wall Street should crater based on what this administration and Greenspan have done to our economy. And from what I read here, that might actually be a better thing than propping up this "free market" with additional Corporate/government smoke and mirrors.
Perhaps Obama will be an adult about these things and we'll have a chance at returning to some level of fiscal and monetary sanity while we chase the frat-boy and Mr. Undisclosed Location into court for a full hearing. That'd be a refreshing change.
But that's some thoughts for other blogs, in the meantime any defense of how these clowns have run this economy would a pleasure to read, because, from what I read here, it won't stand...
The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported that residential home sales by realtors in the Greater Las Vegas area totaled 2,006 in April, up 19.6% from last Aprils pace.
SF sales were up 29.9% from last April to 1,794, while condo sales were down 28.4% to 212.
The median SF sales price last month was $235,875, down 22.9% from a year ago. Last months median SF sales price was the lowest since February 2004.
I am wondering if this is just a 'surge' of "knife catchers" running in early.
Here is an article on a "failed" housing auction in LV recently.
Obama will fuel a savage Reagan democrat turncoat run. Hillary voters will bail at alarming rates. Just watch.
barely, finally something i can get behind. It is estimated (internal democratic polling) that 1 in 4 of H supporters will not vote for Obama. Anecdotally, I can tell you that this is probably pretty close, as NONE (and I'll repeat that NONE) of the people I know that are H supporters will vote for O, but instead plan on voting for McCain should O take the nomination.
That's OK in my book because the next president will be one-term anyhow, as everything comes to a head and he/she inherits a total mess.
LOL! Those are wishing numbers. You'll see north of 1/3 switch teams. My MIL, diehard Dem and party contributor, never voted GOP in her life, said she'll switch and all her friends along with her.
FL is toast for certain, which should tilt the election. Another Dem election where they follow their nominee merrily and blindly off the cliff.
(OT) Gary said: "Agreed. Unlike Sebastian, I believe we're both good for it."
Just for the record, I never meant that the bears weren't good for the money (because who cares about $50?), just that they would never accept that they were ever wrong.
So, summing-up: No recession this year, new highs in the major stock indices this year, possibly one more Fed easing but no tightening this year, and stable or lower inflation this year.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said "The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices."
The Democratic primaries have revealed a big split in the party between the minority groups/white urban liberals, and the blue collar Democrats. A politically savvy Republican would be able to sweep in and claim the blue collar votes, but what actually can the neo-cons offer? These people are suffering from outsourcing, globalization, free trade, and illegal immigration; the very policies that the neo-cons endorse. McCain only offers more free trade, more globalization and more immigration. A paleo-con would be able address the concerns of these voters with ease, but although Obama might chase some of these voters to McCain, I don't see him attracting them with his policy of offering more of what is causing their hardships.
Just for the record, I never meant that the bears weren't good for the money (because who cares about $50?), just that they would never accept that they were ever wrong.
At least in one very important area NAR has a better record of stating the facts than CR's -- Housing Demand. Few months ago NAR admitted that household formation, the primary indicator of the demand, dropped by 50% in 2007.
Jas
Jas Jain
A politically savvy Republican would be able to sweep in and claim the blue collar votes, but what actually can the neo-cons offer?
It doesn't matter JS. It didn't with Bush, and it won't now. From a strategy perspective, you're not going to have Repubs crossing over to vote for Obama, but you run the risk of having it work the other way. And as I said, internal polling indicates that at least 25% of current H supporters will cross. That's more than enough to tilt the election to the Repubs.
Obama connects with the same groups that all the last candidates they put up did. I don't think they get it at all. And frankly, if Obama were interested in being successful and leaving a legacy, he'd have dropped to the 2nd position long ago. But ego is a terrible thing. And it's going to lose a chance at the Presidency for him forever, instead of in 4 or 8 years.
And, honestly, the best thing all the politicians could do right now is let the market sort this out and start to put some REAL regulatory restraints in place to stop this from happening again. That's the best that can be hoped for, and that is pretty non-partisan if you ask me.
Uh I believe the number of Obama supporters who would not vote for Hillary is higher. The millions of new young voters, the blacks, independents who have shown support for O, as well as the party base will overhwelm McCain--the worst candidate imaginable.
"Uh I believe the number of Obama supporters who would not vote for Hillary is higher"
But those voters would have merely vanished. Hillary voters will actively switch teams, a DOUBLE-HIT. And that is in swing states where it matters. So what if Obama voters in Mississippi turn out and get clobbered anyhow?
Uh I believe the number of Obama supporters who would not vote for Hillary is higher"
barely is right. if you think that the voters in Ohio are going to turn out in droves in a general election for Obama, you are seriously deluded. Same goes for Penn and Florida (where the dirty thing that the Dems aren't talking about is the Latino vote, which certainly ISN'T going to Obama).
So this election is going to look like that last one if the slate is McCain vs. Obama.
I may be naive, but aren't you all underestimating the independent vote that has no say in the primary elections? Many new young voters this year not affiliated with either party will vote Obama.
The NAR also talks about their forecasts for Real Estate in their PHS press release. As they have been lately doing every month, they slightly revised down their projections. I find it amusing that even though they have lowered their median price forecast for 2008 and 2009, the NAR has raised their 2008 third quarter forecast to $229,600 up from their forecast last month of $228,700. $229,600 is a 16.3% increase over the first quarter's median of $197,500 and is higher than the 2007's high of $229,000.
Yes, Ipodius, and if you think Republicans are going to turn out in any numbers for McCain, you are seriously deluded. He enjoys weak support among a dwindling base and ties to an extremely unpopular incumbent president. All the candidates have their weaknesses.
Poor NAR, how are they going to fudge the numbers for the rest of the year to show rising house sales...
Hey NAR forecasts have been right on target, all you have to do is multiply them by -1.0.
First?
How often has the March pending been down month over month vs. the February pending?
Curiously first?
the opposite of the NAR forecast.
Sad, funny & true.
I disagree about sales declines all year, once the FHA bailout gets squashed. Lenders will throw in the towel, foreclose, and slash prices to clear inventory driving up sales.
CR:
You may find WCI's earnings report very interesting. Over 90% of their sales came from liquidating specs at significant discounts. I doubt other HBs spec sale percentage was as high, but nonetheless shows that a much higher percentage of current sales is coming from liquidating inventory at HUGE discounts. DR Horton derived a material percentage of revenues from liquidating UNAUCTION homes this quarter. It was the same for many builders.
Such deep discounted spec liquidation sales are not likely to cancel causing for current low cancellation rates. Expect cancellation rates to increase materially as spec inventories contract going forward.
type MZM on "series id" and press enter. Result: Inflation is comming.
St. Louis Fed: FRED Graph
added to my leveraged long equity position on news of Valejo bankruptcy on last thread and making money on that already. adding here on this pending home sales decline number. Hopefully, there is more bad news and earnings today so that stocks will really rocket!
As I noted (off topic) in an earlier comments section, pending sales had been steady from September to January, but are now turning lower again. The revision to February was nearly as large as the drop in March, so pending sales in March were actually about 1.9% lower than expected. Though mortgage applications for purchase were up in the latest week, they have been in a down-trend since February. All of this is right in line with reports from realtors and builders that we got no bounce in sales at the beginning of the heavy selling season.
Bizarro - You're in LUCK! Tomorrow you'll get retail sales AND weekly claims numbers that should be really BULLISH, given the productivity gains numbers that suggest employment heading into the tank.
Go long RTH here.
MZM in one year since April 07 till now increased from 7500 to 8600. Increase of %14 in one year.
One of these days... er... a quarters.. the NAR forecast will be right er... a... years...
...one of these DECADES the NAR forecast will be right and you'll all be sorry.
The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported that residential home sales by realtors in the Greater Las Vegas area totaled 2,006 in April, up 19.6% from last Aprils pace. SF sales were up 29.9% from last April to 1,794, while condo sales were down 28.4% to 212. The median SF sales price last month was $235,875, down 22.9% from a year ago. Last months median SF sales price was the lowest since February 2004.
Dirk van Dijk writes:
Hey NAR forecasts have been right on target, all you have to do is multiply them by -1.0.
Just a sign error--give 'em partial credit.
barely writes:
Bizarro - You're in LUCK! Tomorrow you'll get retail sales AND weekly claims numbers that should be really BULLISH
I think you misspelled BULLSHIT.
President George W. Bush warned that he would veto legislation aimed at shoring up the housing market which is slated for a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday.
"We are committed to a good housing bill that will help folks stay in their house as opposed to a housing bill that will reward speculators and lenders," Bush said after meeting with House Republicans. "I will veto the bill that's moving through the House today if it makes it to my desk."
Bush says would veto housing bill
| Reuters
it seems like we can either have low sales and moderate prices (homeowners still relunctant to sell unless offered a 'good' price), or higher sales and even lower prices (liquidation). so the NAR will always be able to spin one of those numbers and try to ignore the other.
NAR stands for "Never-ending Adjustments to Reality".
"President George W. Bush warned that he would veto legislation..."
Sometimes, the guy actually talks a good talk.
There is a tremendous buildup of future forclosures in Southern Calif. All the realtor/speculators are able to postpone formal forclosure on multiple houses, while still collecting rent. Others are living free for months and months as the banks take their time getting through the stack. Also, cities are charging banks for upkeep, and vandalism to empty homes, mean that many banks would rather the residents stay in the house for free to prevent degradation, vandalism, and upkeep fees......the water is building up behind the dam fast as enough forclosures move to get Zillow prices to around true sales transactions and give entire neighbhoods real-time realization that it's useless to try to sell. There are vast swaths of new homes, thousands of them, built over the last three years where virtually EVERY buyer is upsidedown. Even if they can afford resets, any divorce, jobloss, sickeness means forclosure.....How the GSE's can lend money at these rates (roughly the same as during the boom when nobody defaulted because every tough spot was solved with a quick profitable sale) is beyond me.....anyone calling a bottom is either stupid or a liar.
Just recall Greenspan's call of a bottom in OCT of 2006!!!!! The ex-fed chairman for christ sake!!!! Supposed to be an expert...missing the easiest call of the last 2 centuries....with Bernanke calling for no spillover 6 months later!!! Things are getting very scary!
I'll know that RE is really dead and its time to buy when we and others stop caring about NAR and housing index reports altogether.
It seems pretty pointless reading this blog now that all the bad news has been priced in.
Just recall Greenspan's call of a bottom in OCT of 2006!!!!!
I remember it was MR. Treasury Secretery Paulson who called the bottom for housing about 8 month ago. When I heard that I was speechless.
Are these people clueless OR just do not have the integrity to speak TRUTH.
I'm waiting to hear the response from the North American Mortgage Brokers and Lenders Association (NAMBLA).
You guys are reading the NAR charts wrong. You need to give them a quarter turn clockwise.
I enjoy bizarro's comments. I think most of the content is sarcasm, but I wonder if it doesn't give a glimpse into the mind of a super-bull.
A more responsible optimistic forecast:
Yun said that sales were expected to pick up later this summer, "We'll see banks getting more well priced foreclosures on the market and reality setting in for sellers who didn't unload in the spring. Buyers will come back when there are more homes they can actually afford given the reality of the new mortgage market."
the mind of the "super bull" :
1- things are good
2- things are bad: it is good, it is an opportunity
of course amplitute and timing are often neglected
I'm waiting to hear the response from the North American Mortgage Brokers and Lenders Association (NAMBLA).
Gary | 05.07.08 - 11:29 am | #
That NAMBLA has done far more damage to American Families and Children than the other one.
"
That NAMBLA has done far more damage to American Families and Children than the other one."
I'll bet it's less popular right now than the other one.
Everyone's daily infoporn via TBP
- NY Times
(and the NYT too!)
OT,
Um is the market down (modestly) while the 10 year is selling off as well....?
Any speculation - anyone - Buehler?
This report singled out Bakersfield..
I have numbers that say otherwise. See Bakersfield Bubble
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/
On CNBC now Brian Wesbury predicts Dow 15,000 by the end of THIS YEAR! Reaffirms a no-recession call.
OT, Um is the market down (modestly) while the 10 year is selling off as well....? Any speculation - energyecon
I'll speculate...Pundits are already declaring the democratic winner as Obama. He is not so good for the markets.
Market down, and TNX and IRX both up.
if hot money leaving how come dollar is up ?
--
"Existing home sales will probably decline all year - the opposite of the NAR forecast."
At least in one very important area NAR has a better record of stating the facts than CR's -- Housing Demand. Few months ago NAR admitted that household formation, the primary indicator of the demand, dropped by 50% in 2007.
Jas
energyecon, 15 bio 10 yr auction today, and the street is not well set up for it and needs to create a short base before 1pm.
I don't have time to go back and look at the data, but I would think a pending m-o-m sales decline in March is somewhere between very rare and unprecedented.
"He is not so good for the markets."
That is just asinine.
My favorite NAR line is:
"Interest rates are low now, is a great time to buy...."
I have a buddy who is a bond trader who thinks this statement is simply the funniest thing he's heard....
Gary writes:
"He is not so good for the markets." - That is just asinine.
I disagree. Hey, I like Obama a lot, wish I could vote for him... But there is a perception that McCain or Hilary would be more Wall Street friendly.
Brian Wesbury is delusional, using Sebastian's models and 70s understanding of markets. He has been wrong all along.
Turbo what is it you said about the qo year bond market?
Look at the list of former Senators who became President.
U.S. Senate: Art & History Home > People > Senators > Senators Who Became President
Bemoan the fact that we are getting another one.
[/politics]
I meant 10 year bond market.
Turbo,
Thanks - I recall reading something about upcoming auctions but did not realize it was today on the 10 year - and my understanding is that March is the kickoff of the summer selling season (usually)...
"10 fastest growing real estate markets"
"Yes, even amid the housing crisis, parts of the U.S. are still expected to post price gains in the coming year, according to Money Magazine. Here's where to look.
1 of 10 McAllen, Texas"
10 fastest growing real estate markets - McAllen, Texas (1) - Money Magazine
A sign of things to come. Also, proof there is no national bubble. McCallen is still up. LMFAO.
What are you trying to say Rob Dawg. Harding was a great president. Doesn't bode well for the next guy though. Obama Clinton or MCCain it doesn't look like they will make all the way through if history is any guide.
FYI, Well, maybe it is time to live American Reality, instead of American Dream(tm). Welcome to the retirement home MISS AD, you 232 year old virgin!
"But there is a perception that McCain or Hilary would be more Wall Street friendly."
And you are perpetuating that baseless perception.
RD - Better a Senator than a Texas or California governor.
And in any case, all three remaining candidates are Senators, so that wouldn't backstop sterlingerl's statement.
Obama is an interesting character. Too bad that doesn't count. He's also just what McCain needs, as opposition. Wall St would crater if Obama got elected. No need to worry, though. His performance will make Dukakis' loss look like strong showing. Just watch.
sterlingerl, that's a funny conception considering the populist war path HRC has been on lately. But I guess most people acknowledge she doesn't really mean any of it. Either way, the primaries barely changed the race at all. Hardly a market mover.
Disclosure: I am a housing bear.
That said, the April (not the recently released March figures) pending sales index based upon a, so far, accurate sample of 22 metro markets is up, even on a seasonally adjusted basis. You can expect NAR/Yun to chirp loudly in a month when this data is released. The problem is that the conversion ratio of pending to closed sales is declining because of tightening lending standards. Also, much of the pending sale buildup is simply contract extentions to give the buyer more time to try and find financing. Sellers really have no other choice.
Bottom line: Keep an eye on the seasonally adjusted sales numbers.
"Wall St would crater if Obama got elected."
What the hell does that mean, and what do you base it on? We all have our political opinions, but just repeating the same bullshit CNBC lines doesn't back them up. Argument by assertion doesn't cut it.
Barely,
You are wrong, Obama will win, the republicans have too many headwinds and McCain is a poor candidate. Socccer moms became security moms and will be forclosure moms, they will vote dem.
Tim - Very large 10 year treasury auction today. The dealers need to sell ahead of the auction at 1pm to set up short so they can absorb the supply (and also hopefully create a price concession). Hence the rates market being off a bit on a day when stocks are also looking a little soft (not something we've exactly seen a lot of lately).
"Wall St would crater if Obama got elected."
The market tanked when GW and the Repubs had full control!!
Look at the list of former Senators who became President.
Crikey! That list would be tough for even the NAR to spin!
But I bet they'd give it a shot:
Senators-as-Presidents Market Turning Up:
Half of Last Half-Century's Former Senators Ranked in Top Third of Historical Presidents
Turbo makes sense, thanks
Turbo, I dont get it. What is the bond/stock relationship?
i just want to personally thank everyone on this post. Although we don't all agree all the time we all have a common goal. Cut through the Bullshit.
"What the hell does that mean, and what do you base it on?"
Massive tax increases on investment gains and dividends. The selling fury after his win will be record setting. Long term, I can't say, and I don't care since I trade.
Then he has protectionist tendencies and corp tax increase platforms. Good for bears like me, but afraid I won't be able to cash in.
Obama will fuel a savage Reagan democrat turncoat run. Hillary voters will bail at alarming rates. Just watch.
Given that Obama plans to raise capital gains and dividend taxes rather considerably, that is not something you plug into a valuation model and come up with higher stock prices. On the other hand, a little income redistribution away from the top 1% to the middle class could be beneficial for the economy.
L.A. Times
$4.5 million pot bust in foreclosed Fontana house (don't miss the reader comments here)...
$4.5 million pot bust in foreclosed house | L.A. Land | Los Angeles Times
S&P from Nov 2000 to Nov 2006 -
S&P 500 INDEX ($INX) - Stock chart, Index chart - MSN Money
Barely,
McCain is no Reagan. Wall Street think things are great but no one else does this will drive the dems to victory despite themselves. Bush did more damage than you think, look at the last midterms.
Average Joe said: "On CNBC now Brian Wesbury predicts Dow 15,000 by the end of THIS YEAR! Reaffirms a no-recession call."
I don't know what model(s) he uses, but the fact of the matter is that DJIA at 15,000 by the end of the year isn't really out of line.
Sebastia
Westbury also said 1st qtr gdp would be 2.5%
barely, I'll make a wager with you, $50 to the CR tip jar: Obama beats McCain in November.
Accept?
you all are assuming that we will even be allowed an election.....
If it appears that johnny mcbush is not going to win then I'm positive we will have some national emergency that puts off the elections until later.
Anyone that thinks the current administration is just going to hand it over to a woman or a black (that is unfortunately how most voters see it) doesn't understand how power works in this country.
Ask yourself this question:
Who is Johnny Mc Bush's running mate???
At this point in every election we have known that.......that we do not at this point tells me that the Repubs. will somehow, some way install Cheney as his running mate. I do not know if there are limitations of terms a VP can serve. You can bet Rove et al. have already figured that out.
Sounds totally unrealistic???
So does the market where it's at now....
Ciao
MS
will, the bond market has responded like Maria Sharapova's lap dog every time equities have even a mildly bad day - snapped to attention and taken rates lower, even though bond traders like to think they're in charge. Not happening today though, with a record size 10 yr auction about to come off.
Thanks Turbo.
Based on what I read here, Wall Street should crater based on what this administration and Greenspan have done to our economy. And from what I read here, that might actually be a better thing than propping up this "free market" with additional Corporate/government smoke and mirrors.
Perhaps Obama will be an adult about these things and we'll have a chance at returning to some level of fiscal and monetary sanity while we chase the frat-boy and Mr. Undisclosed Location into court for a full hearing. That'd be a refreshing change.
But that's some thoughts for other blogs, in the meantime any defense of how these clowns have run this economy would a pleasure to read, because, from what I read here, it won't stand...
FDIC Letter to Stakeholders First Quarter 2008 (Sources report two bank closings Friday)
FDIC: Error 404 - Page Not Found
Gary McCain vs Obama. Not Dev vs GOP.
No substitutes, for any reason.
I'm in for $50 to the tip jar. I'm due anyhow
.
Tom writes:
The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported that residential home sales by realtors in the Greater Las Vegas area totaled 2,006 in April, up 19.6% from last Aprils pace.
SF sales were up 29.9% from last April to 1,794, while condo sales were down 28.4% to 212.
The median SF sales price last month was $235,875, down 22.9% from a year ago. Last months median SF sales price was the lowest since February 2004.
I am wondering if this is just a 'surge' of "knife catchers" running in early.
Here is an article on a "failed" housing auction in LV recently.
The Ultimate Card Playing Legend by Doug French
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Obama will fuel a savage Reagan democrat turncoat run. Hillary voters will bail at alarming rates. Just watch.
barely, finally something i can get behind. It is estimated (internal democratic polling) that 1 in 4 of H supporters will not vote for Obama. Anecdotally, I can tell you that this is probably pretty close, as NONE (and I'll repeat that NONE) of the people I know that are H supporters will vote for O, but instead plan on voting for McCain should O take the nomination.
That's OK in my book because the next president will be one-term anyhow, as everything comes to a head and he/she inherits a total mess.
Agreed. Unlike Sebastian, I believe we're both good for it.
That is, agreed to the bet with barely. I almost never agree with ipodius (and don't here).
"1 in 4 of H supporters will not vote for Obama"
LOL! Those are wishing numbers. You'll see north of 1/3 switch teams. My MIL, diehard Dem and party contributor, never voted GOP in her life, said she'll switch and all her friends along with her.
FL is toast for certain, which should tilt the election. Another Dem election where they follow their nominee merrily and blindly off the cliff.
(OT) Gary said: "Agreed. Unlike Sebastian, I believe we're both good for it."
Just for the record, I never meant that the bears weren't good for the money (because who cares about $50?), just that they would never accept that they were ever wrong.
So, summing-up: No recession this year, new highs in the major stock indices this year, possibly one more Fed easing but no tightening this year, and stable or lower inflation this year.
No bets on the Presidential winner.
S.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said "The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices."
LOL
The Democratic primaries have revealed a big split in the party between the minority groups/white urban liberals, and the blue collar Democrats. A politically savvy Republican would be able to sweep in and claim the blue collar votes, but what actually can the neo-cons offer? These people are suffering from outsourcing, globalization, free trade, and illegal immigration; the very policies that the neo-cons endorse. McCain only offers more free trade, more globalization and more immigration. A paleo-con would be able address the concerns of these voters with ease, but although Obama might chase some of these voters to McCain, I don't see him attracting them with his policy of offering more of what is causing their hardships.
Just for the record, I never meant that the bears weren't good for the money (because who cares about $50?), just that they would never accept that they were ever wrong.
why are you an idiot?
At least in one very important area NAR has a better record of stating the facts than CR's -- Housing Demand. Few months ago NAR admitted that household formation, the primary indicator of the demand, dropped by 50% in 2007.
Jas
Jas Jain
How are your puts on financials doing, Jas?
O-Joe
A politically savvy Republican would be able to sweep in and claim the blue collar votes, but what actually can the neo-cons offer?
It doesn't matter JS. It didn't with Bush, and it won't now. From a strategy perspective, you're not going to have Repubs crossing over to vote for Obama, but you run the risk of having it work the other way. And as I said, internal polling indicates that at least 25% of current H supporters will cross. That's more than enough to tilt the election to the Repubs.
Obama connects with the same groups that all the last candidates they put up did. I don't think they get it at all. And frankly, if Obama were interested in being successful and leaving a legacy, he'd have dropped to the 2nd position long ago. But ego is a terrible thing. And it's going to lose a chance at the Presidency for him forever, instead of in 4 or 8 years.
And, honestly, the best thing all the politicians could do right now is let the market sort this out and start to put some REAL regulatory restraints in place to stop this from happening again. That's the best that can be hoped for, and that is pretty non-partisan if you ask me.
Uh I believe the number of Obama supporters who would not vote for Hillary is higher. The millions of new young voters, the blacks, independents who have shown support for O, as well as the party base will overhwelm McCain--the worst candidate imaginable.
"Uh I believe the number of Obama supporters who would not vote for Hillary is higher"
But those voters would have merely vanished. Hillary voters will actively switch teams, a DOUBLE-HIT. And that is in swing states where it matters. So what if Obama voters in Mississippi turn out and get clobbered anyhow?
Go ahead and delude yourself.
Uh I believe the number of Obama supporters who would not vote for Hillary is higher"
barely is right. if you think that the voters in Ohio are going to turn out in droves in a general election for Obama, you are seriously deluded. Same goes for Penn and Florida (where the dirty thing that the Dems aren't talking about is the Latino vote, which certainly ISN'T going to Obama).
So this election is going to look like that last one if the slate is McCain vs. Obama.
Bottom!!! There, it's been called
I may be naive, but aren't you all underestimating the independent vote that has no say in the primary elections? Many new young voters this year not affiliated with either party will vote Obama.
The NAR also talks about their forecasts for Real Estate in their PHS press release. As they have been lately doing every month, they slightly revised down their projections. I find it amusing that even though they have lowered their median price forecast for 2008 and 2009, the NAR has raised their 2008 third quarter forecast to $229,600 up from their forecast last month of $228,700. $229,600 is a 16.3% increase over the first quarter's median of $197,500 and is higher than the 2007's high of $229,000.
Financial Sight: Pending Home Sales are down 20% from last year; NAR remains optimistic
Yes, Ipodius, and if you think Republicans are going to turn out in any numbers for McCain, you are seriously deluded. He enjoys weak support among a dwindling base and ties to an extremely unpopular incumbent president. All the candidates have their weaknesses.
Lastly.