"I don't expect the improvement investment slump to be anywhere near as severe as the single family structure collapse, but this does show there is potentially a significant downside." -- CR
Why? They track identically on the way up. Why not the way down?
In theory this would imply that Home Depot's stock should be dropping ... fast. But check out this chart. It barely moved in the last 6 months - and has actually outperformed the market.
I don't expect the improvement investment slump to be anywhere near as severe as the single family structure collapse, but this does show there is potentially a significant downside.
Why is that? Home Depot "plans to open 55 new stores this year, but has canceled 50 other store openings in the U.S." I expect improvement to decline significantly.
Owner Earnings, I'm forecasting a pretty sharp decline - but I don't think it will as sharp as for single family structures. That is an informed guess - I don't have a crystal ball!
Out of the small handful of econblogs I look at, this seems to be the only one where people are posting 'first'... kind of strange. It's like they've just discovered the internet.
Previous dips were slight in the previous housing downturns. On one hand, people won't invest too much in their house if they think the return is bad. On the other, they will improve their current house if the propsects of moving up are slim.
"On one hand, people won't invest too much in their house if they think the return is bad. On the other, they will improve their current house if the propsects of moving up are slim."
When money is tight, I think people will be thinking more about burning their new wood floors for heat than repainting the garage.
So say the fact that foreclosure sales make home price devaluations worse because, you know, they have that effect, why not just make your models ignore those types of sales all together? Sounds like a good idea? It sure is, and it is how Fannie Mae designed their home price estimates. Just ignore reality and instead pretend you have any clue what you you are doing, sounds about right for a government backed agency. We are all data selective now!
...I have been "under employed" in the res. moving business for the past 6 months...so, I replastered the pool, installed some lights, shopped for and replaced older appliances, purchased some funriture at moving sales and improved the "basics" of my house because I had the time to get these things done.....
since we plan to move in about 3-5 years, it makes sense to enjoy the improvements which a prudent buyer will expect to exist in a resale house...
the electrician, the painter and the pool guys all said their business was off significantly and they were thrilled with small jobs that kept their best employees working....
this week my estimating appointments increased for the first time since 08/08....still below last year, but hopefully the "sign of life" will continue....my car carrier company also reports increased inquiries...
This has clearly become a game of who can hold their breath the longest. I must admit DHI's balance sheet looks sustainable. Even if they took at 30% haircut on their remaining assets they would still have positive equity. HOV's balance sheet is no where near as good.
Secondary offerings simply delay the day of reckoning. The main beneficiaries of a secondary offering are the managers at the very top. If there was no secondary offering, then the company would be merged or finished as would their jobs.
Ever notice how all these justified highly paid CEOs never get another high paid job once they retire/quit/fired?
"I must admit DHI's balance sheet looks sustainable. Even if they took at 30% haircut on their remaining assets they would still have positive equity."
Just don't look at their off-balance sheet monkey business. Then, you wouldn't be so confident.
"s pearman writes:
Out of the small handful of econblogs I look at, this seems to be the only one where people are posting 'first'... kind of strange. It's like they've just discovered the internet."
It's a little bit sad really, and I love this blog.
Why would it not fall to at least $80,000? This time around we went so far away from the norm that looking at percentages might not be the right thing to do.
Those of us who are equity good with no seconds, HELOCS etc. will probably continue to make home improvements. We have a bunch of deferred maintainence items but the nice thing is that HD et al have some good discounts. The heating and air guys are VERY price friendly these days.
So, I think you are correct, CR but not sure the retail margins will hold up.
Further downside risk: home improvement would seem to be particularly sensitive to rising gas prices, going forward. Lots of discretionary spending, lots of crap from China. And you have to drive your gas-guzling SUV/Truck to the store if you want to buy much.
(Bob and pearlman are just pissed because they weren't first. Who WAS first this time, by the way? Neer neer.)
Consider us as contributing to the downturn in Home Improvement spending. We signed up for some basement work with a remodeler and killed it last week. The ops guy said that what the sales guy promised was impossible to provide, despite the contract, and they then proceeded to fast track the project...despite not having a completed contract, I was walking out of my house to find utility flags in the yard.
I believe the home improvement numbers aren't properly capturing all the people currently replacing their brass and copper plumbing with the new "Drip Anywhere Systems". I'm told it is a big market.
Was going to post this at the bottom of the Credit Card thread, but it got a little troll heavy?
Anyone do a serious analysis of how much those points programs cost?
My own experience with say air miles-Safeway offers almost 1 point per $10, double if you use a MasterCard. So to collect enough miles for a round trip of 600 miles, you need to spend $6000. Or you could spend about 10% less at a discount store or Costco-that's $5500 including the membership and buy TWO tickets for the $500 left over?
The biggest thing that nobody has yet mentioned in this thread is the change in home improvement labor markets. It just isn't as plentiful as it was, now that the Mexicans are going home or being harrassed to leave.
Mexicans really did become America's home improvement consultants. They have great carpenter, masonry, painting, plumbing, landscaping skills. Most of them are taught in an apprentice system back home and brought here for hire. They are much better than what you can hire here.
I don't mean to get political, but I'm just appalled at the lack of interest in this issue in the current campaigns. It's a big hit to HD, Lowes's and the U.S. economy to send all these skilled home improvement specialists packing or deeper underground.
We had a good thing going when they were: 1) gettint steady work; 2) not getting harrassed; 3) greasing the home improvement wheels; and 4) sending money back home. They were sending dollars home. Now, those markets for dollars have dried up.
"Most of them are taught in an apprentice system back home and brought here for hire. They are much better than what you can hire here".
Rich, I have known many many latinos very well. With the exception of tile setters and a tiny amount of electricians, the vast majority had no appreciable construction or apprentice program back home. They may have some rudimentary handyman skills.
However, many of them have been here working in a trade now for a number of years. Their English skills have improved and their trade knowledge is good. However, I suspect more of them are leaving now because of a lack of work, than are leaving because they have been harassed.
I am in the lowest wage area in the country for tradesman. Your typical mechanical tradesman is probably making $16+ an hour. Not great compared to the rest of the country, but a lot better then $7 a day back home.
Rich,I agree with you. I have contracted with these people for many years and will continue to do so.They are highly skilled, hard working, and easy to get along with.Contrary to current opinion , they do not take jobs from"hard working Americans",as ther is a shortage of skilled construction workers in the USA.
Oh well I'm still doing home improvement stuff. Just finished painting the interior - and I literally mean I was the one up on the ladder. Spent around $200 on paint and did it without help.
Next on the summer project list is restoring the water garden pond. It has been on the 'to-do' list for the past 2 summers but I was working on the other 2000 sq ft of perennial garden beds first which was a huge project as they had been ignored and untended for years. Again when I say "I was working", I mean that literally as I am the one who prepares the soil, selects each plant, plants it, weeds, fertilizes and waters. No hired help involved.
It's a big hit to HD, Lowes's and the U.S. economy to send all these skilled home improvement specialists packing or deeper underground.
Rich, the hit to HD, etc. is not because Mexicans are going back home. It's because homeowners aren't hiring. And there is no shortage of American workers, even skilled and talented ones, to do those jobs. Especially now that there are so many Americans unemployed in the construction industry.
What's changing is that the Americans/Americanized/legal immigrants who would hire the illegals for dirt cheap are not getting rich off of them anymore. When you see painting contractors driving up to price a job in BMWs, it ain't because they're holding a brush. They're making it from the backs of the illegals.
It was a weird situation, and it's time we got back to legal immigration.
"they do not take jobs from"hard working Americans",as ther is a shortage of skilled construction workers in the USA.
jim "
There was NOT a shortage of skilled construction workers in the USA 30 or even 20 years ago. There became a shortage in some - and only some - areas of the US after the illegals came in and under cut wages and benefits.
30 years ago a carpenter could support a family on one income, buy a house, a car and send their kid to college - and had health insurance and a pension. The comparable 2008 wage rate would be around $25-35 an hour. The illegals take $10-15 and go without health insurance or pensions.
The illegals undercut the US workers and drove them out since they couldn't live in the accepted manner in the US (one family per dwelling, car, health coverage) on what the illegals would work for.
Around here there is NO shortage of skilled US construction workers - and NO illegals working in construction here.
When you see painting contractors driving up to price a job in BMWs, it ain't because they're holding a brush. They're making it from the backs of the illegals.
They're making it on the backs of every contract who wants to stay on the right side of the law.
That's the real problem with Congress talking out of both sides of their mouth when it comes to immigration. It's created entire trades that operation in a gray area. More ethical business owners are forced out of the trade.
And since you pretty much need to be a cash heavy business to operate in the gray zone it isn't too long until you're playing games with taxes.
And now you're outside of the law, where you going to turn to when organized crime moves in?
just got back from a run to Lowes tonight.
On Saturday morning I was in HD.
the thing I notice is the traffic is off, but more importantly, I do not see any tradespeople (or they are disgused and shopping with their pregnant wives).
Also see the featured products are in the 50-70 buck range instead of the 700 dollar stainless gas grills of last year.
In my upstate NY city where we are supposed to be all depressed and scared, skilled carpenters make $50 an hour. Run of the mill ones make $40. Plumbers make $80. And the plumbers all suck.
Not wall street money but enough to raise a family on.
Perhaps skilled carpenters who are losing their jobs to immigrants weren't that good. OR they should move. I know when i was a hot shit internet consultant I had to live in New Jersey if i wanted to get paid even though I absolutely hated NJ.
I'm not buying the "skilled immigrants working for half price are stealing work from the skilled carpenters" argument. Sure it is true for the ghetto apartment buildings in my city where nothing gets done up to code and they just put up some shitty dry wall and linoleum and pay everyone off the books. That ain't skilled labor. But its good enough for the ghetto.
There is no shortage of work where I am for real skilled craftsmen. Plenty of immigrant gardeners. None building high end cabinets.
In San Diego we hired a legal tile contractor guy who did the floor and subbed out the difficult bath stone work he couldn't do to Mexicans. Don't know if they were illegal or not, but they did a great job.
I can only speak to the situation in my area (central AZ), but around here the Mexican nationals are not driving down wages in the skilled trades. They may depress wages in the unskilled laborer jobs, but not by very much. Even now with the slowdown (deadzone) in construction Mexicans will laugh at you if you offer less than $15 / hour for basic labor. That said, you will get a proper hour's work for your $15, as opposed to what many local kids will deliver.
Most of the Mexicans I run into as a contractor are either basic laborers, rough framers, concrete guys, plasterers, or tile setters. All are making good wages. The electricians, plumbers, insulators, and finish carpenters tend to be anglos and still command a good wage.
In Phoenix there are skilled craftsmen from south of the border, but they work for the rich folks and the luxury resorts. The rest of us have to deal with unskilled laborers who won't give you their last names, and probably not their real first names.
Like Outsider said, even if you think you are hiring a skilled craftsman you probably aren't. My most recent remodeling job I hired a highly recommended tile setter. She did a total of maybe 2 hours of work on the job. We must have had 15 different guys in the house, one after the other, all claiming to be each other's cousins filling in because the guy who was there the previous day was sick, and none of whom knew what they were doing. I finally kicked them all out, changed the lock, reactivated the alarm and am finishing the job myself.
Of course the problem is not immigration per se, the problem is a complete lack of any unions or any other organization and certification of skilled trades to keep the overall skill levels up. If we had a reasonable number of verifiably skilled craftsmen to begin with, unskilled immigrants wouldn't be able to compete away the jobs so easily.
albrt,
Unions had a purpose in the early 1900s and they will have a purpose again. Right now their only purpose is to create a competitive disadvantage for the companies they work for.
albrt, Unions had a purpose in the early 1900s and they will have a purpose again. However, right now, their only purpose is to the give companies they work for a competitive disadvantage.
This will never get read. But collectors of trivia might find it interesting?
In a few other countries, the Netherlands to my certain knowledge, tradesmen are granted licenses after certification in their particular fields, and the license is pulled if there are problems with the work. Recertification gets the license reinstated, but a second instance of problems is dealt with pretty severely.
This applies to workers who are performing the labor, not only to the owner, foreman, contractor. You have to demonstrate training and skill, or you don't work.
The Dutch didn't set out to replace unions - they still maintain guilds - but it does provide for oversight and discipline at the state level.
I can't see that this is a union issue, but a "get everything for a Wal-Mart price" issue. Having previously owned a pavement resurfacing company, I showed up with clean trucks, clean cloths, using good product and good workers. Time and time again I ran into customers that were eager to hire the guy with half his teeth missing and a permanent black asphalt smudge on the front of his clothes, shirt, and teeth, all because he was a few bucks cheaper.
Hoocoodafirst?
First
Sorry, second.
"I don't expect the improvement investment slump to be anywhere near as severe as the single family structure collapse, but this does show there is potentially a significant downside." -- CR
Why? They track identically on the way up. Why not the way down?
In theory this would imply that Home Depot's stock should be dropping ... fast. But check out this chart. It barely moved in the last 6 months - and has actually outperformed the market.
HD: Basic Chart for HOME DEPOT INC - Yahoo! Finance
Anyone any idea why? Good time to short?
I don't expect the improvement investment slump to be anywhere near as severe as the single family structure collapse, but this does show there is potentially a significant downside.
Why is that? Home Depot "plans to open 55 new stores this year, but has canceled 50 other store openings in the U.S." I expect improvement to decline significantly.
Elvis, I don't think the run-up was as steep for single family structures - so I don't think the decline will be as sharp either.
But it may be more in real terms than the 15% to 20% that we saw in the '80s and '90s slumps.
Best to all.
Owner Earnings, I'm forecasting a pretty sharp decline - but I don't think it will as sharp as for single family structures. That is an informed guess - I don't have a crystal ball!
Best Wishes.
Out of the small handful of econblogs I look at, this seems to be the only one where people are posting 'first'... kind of strange. It's like they've just discovered the internet.
OT
cds brokers story.
where the money went
Credit Seizure? $6 Million Pay Turns on Relationships (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
s pearman
This is also the only blog that keeps its sense of humor.
s pearman,
Bad running jokes are still funny.
People who are unemployed have lots of time for home improvement. I expect this type of home improvement to improve.
Previous dips were slight in the previous housing downturns. On one hand, people won't invest too much in their house if they think the return is bad. On the other, they will improve their current house if the propsects of moving up are slim.
Riddle: What do 14 million and HOV have in common?
A: Look it up
UPDATE 1-Hovnanian to sell 14 mln shrs, stock falls
| Reuters
"On one hand, people won't invest too much in their house if they think the return is bad. On the other, they will improve their current house if the propsects of moving up are slim."
When money is tight, I think people will be thinking more about burning their new wood floors for heat than repainting the garage.
barely writes:
"Riddle: What do 14 million and HOV have in common?
A: Look it up"
I was wrong. My guess was the number of lots HOV still has on its books.
I'm trying to think of one word that adequately describes Calculated Risk...he reminds me a lot of Tupac Shakur...so I'm going with...
Prolific
Strong dollar policy is alive and well. You will get more HOV shares per dollar, tomorrow!
CR reminds you of 2pac? Because he's Skandalouz?
So say the fact that foreclosure sales make home price devaluations worse because, you know, they have that effect, why not just make your models ignore those types of sales all together? Sounds like a good idea? It sure is, and it is how Fannie Mae designed their home price estimates. Just ignore reality and instead pretend you have any clue what you you are doing, sounds about right for a government backed agency. We are all data selective now!
...I have been "under employed" in the res. moving business for the past 6 months...so, I replastered the pool, installed some lights, shopped for and replaced older appliances, purchased some funriture at moving sales and improved the "basics" of my house because I had the time to get these things done.....
since we plan to move in about 3-5 years, it makes sense to enjoy the improvements which a prudent buyer will expect to exist in a resale house...
the electrician, the painter and the pool guys all said their business was off significantly and they were thrilled with small jobs that kept their best employees working....
this week my estimating appointments increased for the first time since 08/08....still below last year, but hopefully the "sign of life" will continue....my car carrier company also reports increased inquiries...
Umberto Billo, most prolific of all time where it counts!
barely writes:
Riddle: What do 14 million and HOV have in common?
A: Look it up
An Error has occured | Reuters.com? rpc=44
This has clearly become a game of who can hold their breath the longest. I must admit DHI's balance sheet looks sustainable. Even if they took at 30% haircut on their remaining assets they would still have positive equity. HOV's balance sheet is no where near as good.
Secondary offerings simply delay the day of reckoning. The main beneficiaries of a secondary offering are the managers at the very top. If there was no secondary offering, then the company would be merged or finished as would their jobs.
Ever notice how all these justified highly paid CEOs never get another high paid job once they retire/quit/fired?
"...my car carrier company also reports increased inquiries..."
Everybody is moving back to their grandparent's farm.
"I must admit DHI's balance sheet looks sustainable. Even if they took at 30% haircut on their remaining assets they would still have positive equity."
Just don't look at their off-balance sheet monkey business. Then, you wouldn't be so confident.
"s pearman writes:
Out of the small handful of econblogs I look at, this seems to be the only one where people are posting 'first'... kind of strange. It's like they've just discovered the internet."
It's a little bit sad really, and I love this blog.
I wanna see someone claim the last post.
Last
CR,
Why would it not fall to at least $80,000? This time around we went so far away from the norm that looking at percentages might not be the right thing to do.
Those of us who are equity good with no seconds, HELOCS etc. will probably continue to make home improvements. We have a bunch of deferred maintainence items but the nice thing is that HD et al have some good discounts. The heating and air guys are VERY price friendly these days.
So, I think you are correct, CR but not sure the retail margins will hold up.
Further downside risk: home improvement would seem to be particularly sensitive to rising gas prices, going forward. Lots of discretionary spending, lots of crap from China. And you have to drive your gas-guzling SUV/Truck to the store if you want to buy much.
(Bob and pearlman are just pissed because they weren't first. Who WAS first this time, by the way? Neer neer.)
Consider us as contributing to the downturn in Home Improvement spending. We signed up for some basement work with a remodeler and killed it last week. The ops guy said that what the sales guy promised was impossible to provide, despite the contract, and they then proceeded to fast track the project...despite not having a completed contract, I was walking out of my house to find utility flags in the yard.
Bottom?
And to make the house more attractive in case we have to move, we're starting to look at stuff like geothermal. Solar?
I believe the home improvement numbers aren't properly capturing all the people currently replacing their brass and copper plumbing with the new "Drip Anywhere Systems". I'm told it is a big market.
Was going to post this at the bottom of the Credit Card thread, but it got a little troll heavy?
Anyone do a serious analysis of how much those points programs cost?
My own experience with say air miles-Safeway offers almost 1 point per $10, double if you use a MasterCard. So to collect enough miles for a round trip of 600 miles, you need to spend $6000. Or you could spend about 10% less at a discount store or Costco-that's $5500 including the membership and buy TWO tickets for the $500 left over?
The biggest thing that nobody has yet mentioned in this thread is the change in home improvement labor markets. It just isn't as plentiful as it was, now that the Mexicans are going home or being harrassed to leave.
Mexicans really did become America's home improvement consultants. They have great carpenter, masonry, painting, plumbing, landscaping skills. Most of them are taught in an apprentice system back home and brought here for hire. They are much better than what you can hire here.
I don't mean to get political, but I'm just appalled at the lack of interest in this issue in the current campaigns. It's a big hit to HD, Lowes's and the U.S. economy to send all these skilled home improvement specialists packing or deeper underground.
We had a good thing going when they were: 1) gettint steady work; 2) not getting harrassed; 3) greasing the home improvement wheels; and 4) sending money back home. They were sending dollars home. Now, those markets for dollars have dried up.
Define, please?
Is "residential investment" the market value of homes owned? Owner equity? Some measure of what people are spending per unit time?
Sorry, just don't know what it means in this chart.
39th
"Most of them are taught in an apprentice system back home and brought here for hire. They are much better than what you can hire here".
Rich, I have known many many latinos very well. With the exception of tile setters and a tiny amount of electricians, the vast majority had no appreciable construction or apprentice program back home. They may have some rudimentary handyman skills.
However, many of them have been here working in a trade now for a number of years. Their English skills have improved and their trade knowledge is good. However, I suspect more of them are leaving now because of a lack of work, than are leaving because they have been harassed.
I am in the lowest wage area in the country for tradesman. Your typical mechanical tradesman is probably making $16+ an hour. Not great compared to the rest of the country, but a lot better then $7 a day back home.
Rich,I agree with you. I have contracted with these people for many years and will continue to do so.They are highly skilled, hard working, and easy to get along with.Contrary to current opinion , they do not take jobs from"hard working Americans",as ther is a shortage of skilled construction workers in the USA.
Oh well I'm still doing home improvement stuff. Just finished painting the interior - and I literally mean I was the one up on the ladder. Spent around $200 on paint and did it without help.
Next on the summer project list is restoring the water garden pond. It has been on the 'to-do' list for the past 2 summers but I was working on the other 2000 sq ft of perennial garden beds first which was a huge project as they had been ignored and untended for years. Again when I say "I was working", I mean that literally as I am the one who prepares the soil, selects each plant, plants it, weeds, fertilizes and waters. No hired help involved.
It's a big hit to HD, Lowes's and the U.S. economy to send all these skilled home improvement specialists packing or deeper underground.
Rich, the hit to HD, etc. is not because Mexicans are going back home. It's because homeowners aren't hiring. And there is no shortage of American workers, even skilled and talented ones, to do those jobs. Especially now that there are so many Americans unemployed in the construction industry.
What's changing is that the Americans/Americanized/legal immigrants who would hire the illegals for dirt cheap are not getting rich off of them anymore. When you see painting contractors driving up to price a job in BMWs, it ain't because they're holding a brush. They're making it from the backs of the illegals.
It was a weird situation, and it's time we got back to legal immigration.
"they do not take jobs from"hard working Americans",as ther is a shortage of skilled construction workers in the USA.
jim "
There was NOT a shortage of skilled construction workers in the USA 30 or even 20 years ago. There became a shortage in some - and only some - areas of the US after the illegals came in and under cut wages and benefits.
30 years ago a carpenter could support a family on one income, buy a house, a car and send their kid to college - and had health insurance and a pension. The comparable 2008 wage rate would be around $25-35 an hour. The illegals take $10-15 and go without health insurance or pensions.
The illegals undercut the US workers and drove them out since they couldn't live in the accepted manner in the US (one family per dwelling, car, health coverage) on what the illegals would work for.
Around here there is NO shortage of skilled US construction workers - and NO illegals working in construction here.
homedad43 writes:
And to make the house more attractive in case we have to move, we're starting to look at stuff like geothermal.
If you expected geothermal in your basement I can understand why they said it was impossible.
When you see painting contractors driving up to price a job in BMWs, it ain't because they're holding a brush. They're making it from the backs of the illegals.
They're making it on the backs of every contract who wants to stay on the right side of the law.
That's the real problem with Congress talking out of both sides of their mouth when it comes to immigration. It's created entire trades that operation in a gray area. More ethical business owners are forced out of the trade.
And since you pretty much need to be a cash heavy business to operate in the gray zone it isn't too long until you're playing games with taxes.
And now you're outside of the law, where you going to turn to when organized crime moves in?
just got back from a run to Lowes tonight.
On Saturday morning I was in HD.
the thing I notice is the traffic is off, but more importantly, I do not see any tradespeople (or they are disgused and shopping with their pregnant wives).
Also see the featured products are in the 50-70 buck range instead of the 700 dollar stainless gas grills of last year.
gomer
Gomer - Actually, contractors would probably be more likely to be in the store during the workday hours instead of weekends/evenings.
In my upstate NY city where we are supposed to be all depressed and scared, skilled carpenters make $50 an hour. Run of the mill ones make $40. Plumbers make $80. And the plumbers all suck.
Not wall street money but enough to raise a family on.
Perhaps skilled carpenters who are losing their jobs to immigrants weren't that good. OR they should move. I know when i was a hot shit internet consultant I had to live in New Jersey if i wanted to get paid even though I absolutely hated NJ.
I'm not buying the "skilled immigrants working for half price are stealing work from the skilled carpenters" argument. Sure it is true for the ghetto apartment buildings in my city where nothing gets done up to code and they just put up some shitty dry wall and linoleum and pay everyone off the books. That ain't skilled labor. But its good enough for the ghetto.
There is no shortage of work where I am for real skilled craftsmen. Plenty of immigrant gardeners. None building high end cabinets.
I'm looking for cheap labor to fix things around my house. Nothing wrong with cheap labor. Many things wrong with expensive labor, though.
In San Diego we hired a legal tile contractor guy who did the floor and subbed out the difficult bath stone work he couldn't do to Mexicans. Don't know if they were illegal or not, but they did a great job.
I can only speak to the situation in my area (central AZ), but around here the Mexican nationals are not driving down wages in the skilled trades. They may depress wages in the unskilled laborer jobs, but not by very much. Even now with the slowdown (deadzone) in construction Mexicans will laugh at you if you offer less than $15 / hour for basic labor. That said, you will get a proper hour's work for your $15, as opposed to what many local kids will deliver.
Most of the Mexicans I run into as a contractor are either basic laborers, rough framers, concrete guys, plasterers, or tile setters. All are making good wages. The electricians, plumbers, insulators, and finish carpenters tend to be anglos and still command a good wage.
In Phoenix there are skilled craftsmen from south of the border, but they work for the rich folks and the luxury resorts. The rest of us have to deal with unskilled laborers who won't give you their last names, and probably not their real first names.
Like Outsider said, even if you think you are hiring a skilled craftsman you probably aren't. My most recent remodeling job I hired a highly recommended tile setter. She did a total of maybe 2 hours of work on the job. We must have had 15 different guys in the house, one after the other, all claiming to be each other's cousins filling in because the guy who was there the previous day was sick, and none of whom knew what they were doing. I finally kicked them all out, changed the lock, reactivated the alarm and am finishing the job myself.
Of course the problem is not immigration per se, the problem is a complete lack of any unions or any other organization and certification of skilled trades to keep the overall skill levels up. If we had a reasonable number of verifiably skilled craftsmen to begin with, unskilled immigrants wouldn't be able to compete away the jobs so easily.
albrt,
Unions had a purpose in the early 1900s and they will have a purpose again. Right now their only purpose is to create a competitive disadvantage for the companies they work for.
albrt, Unions had a purpose in the early 1900s and they will have a purpose again. However, right now, their only purpose is to the give companies they work for a competitive disadvantage.
Cool. Time warp double post.
Last.
This will never get read. But collectors of trivia might find it interesting?
In a few other countries, the Netherlands to my certain knowledge, tradesmen are granted licenses after certification in their particular fields, and the license is pulled if there are problems with the work. Recertification gets the license reinstated, but a second instance of problems is dealt with pretty severely.
This applies to workers who are performing the labor, not only to the owner, foreman, contractor. You have to demonstrate training and skill, or you don't work.
The Dutch didn't set out to replace unions - they still maintain guilds - but it does provide for oversight and discipline at the state level.
Laster.
I can't see that this is a union issue, but a "get everything for a Wal-Mart price" issue. Having previously owned a pavement resurfacing company, I showed up with clean trucks, clean cloths, using good product and good workers. Time and time again I ran into customers that were eager to hire the guy with half his teeth missing and a permanent black asphalt smudge on the front of his clothes, shirt, and teeth, all because he was a few bucks cheaper.