Seb is busy entering his trades for tomorrow, loading up on long positions during this price dip.

Besides, he only posts when the market is rallying.

Well, if you look, the word "in" is italicized. He's taking issue with the use of that preposition.

More accurate would be to say that GDP declined during the first quarter.

I doubt the resident bears will be so keen on finding statistical errors with GDP reporting methods, if the number came more negative than they expected.

When the bears are wrong, it is the entire world that is upside down.

S.

Sebastian, I see you just earned another ten bucks. (Okay, I guess this makes it twenty--skip the thanks.) Anyway, I came across a great quote from a financial pundit named Darryl Schoon:

The chickens are coming home to roost, and they closer they come, the more they are looking like vultures.

Which is to say, what's coming isn't going to be good for anyone except carrion-eaters.

Sebastian, I used to believe that you were just another misguided Pollyanna on anti-depressants. But lately you are too much like Tiny Tim ("tiptoe, through the tulips!") to be even cyberspatially real. So I think you are a paid shill.

What I wonder is, when the inevitable crash comes and blood runs in the streets, when our Constitution has to be cast aside to preserve some kind of military order (which will fail to keep order), when the rich are hung from lampposts and the poor starve in doorways, will you still defiantly tell yourself that selling your soul for ten dollars a pop was worth it?

It's really pretty simple, since inflation subtracts from GDP, and inflation is massively understated by the government (even Seb won't argue that), we are most certainly in a recession. The real GDP number is probably 1-2 points below the official number our Ministry of Information dispenses.

I do agree with the view that come Jan 09, the statistics will be quietly revised closer to the truth, so the new administration can blame the whole mess on his/her predecessor.

So Bush Lazear et all are disembling by asking: Depends on which "in you're in?"

IMF Says Inflation Back After Years of `Quiescence' (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

There's a lot of argument here about the comfortable rich vs. the sagging middle class. But in the U.S. today, more than you may realize, any weakness in the middle class will rebound negatively on the rich.

From the foreclosures and credit card defaults, it's a short step for a lot of people to the social welfare system. I am constantly amazed at how willing the system is today to take in failing people and households and spend whatever it takes to put them back on their feet. In some cases, if you added it all up, it takes a half million dollars or more.

Where does that money come from? Ultimately, a lot of it comes from corporations and well-off people, one way or another.

An unwritten story is how flooded all of the social welfare support systems are starting to get. These are mainly people no longer able (temporarily or permanently) to support themselves. It's a big reason why employment keeps growing in health care and govt. But it's not economic growth. It's economic drag and decline.

For Seb:

The Big Picture

I like you so much Seb. When you show up back on this board this is the time to go short again...

This is so funny: In europe despite higher and higher Euro they have this:

Trichet Sees `Rather Protracted' High Inflation (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

and in the US, despite falling dollar there is none....

Rich, the unwritten story is the destruction of the social welfare system. Compared to 30 years ago, there is no social welfare system.

You've gotta be kidding me.

By themselves, Medicare and Medicaid combined are the biggest social welfare system ever created.

Do you have any elderly friends or relatives in poor health? They can go to the emergency room whenever they want, at no cost. Some of them hit it 3-4 times a month, whenever they get a chest pain or feel dizzy.

Each visit can cost several hundred dollars minimum and several thousand if doctors order tests.

The doctors tend to order a lot of tests when Medicare is the payee.

Apologies if already posted but I thought this was interesting in light of yesterday's discussions of money supply and sterlilisation, etc.

“It took from 1914 until November 2007 for the Federal Reserve to accumulate $800 billion worth of Treasury debt. It has taken from December 17 to the end of April for the Fed to divest itself of $260 billion of this portfolio, a decrease of one-third. In its place, it has placed AAA-rated mortgages..." - Gary North

Fed Chooses Wall Street Over Main Street-Minyanville

On Cal's inflation graphic, I'd like to see any data indicating food price declines (other fresh vegatables declining? I don't think so).

All the food section should be way up as far as I've seen.

Further.
I've worked on cases involving medicare pricing and billing (going back to the earliest days of medicare -- mid-late 1960's) and it doesn't pay nearly what the provider could earn from well covered private patients.
Doctors (lawyers too incidentally) write off tons of bad debt every year. The pharmacy won't give you your medicine until you pay, but the doctor frequently renders his service and then tries to collect.