I notice that if it contained the presumed start of the recession you put in your graphs, the continuing claims would be about the same as it was at the start of the last recession.
Official unemployment numbers always fail to capture the unofficial employment like prostitution, drug dealing, and armed robbery (which likely have an inverse corrolation to rising official unemployment), so they will always be inaccurate. Six or eight tricks a day and you can make a good living (as long as you don't go blow it at Uncle Cracky's place).
"Official unemployment numbers always fail to capture the unofficial employment like prostitution, drug dealing, and armed robbery..."
Yeah well that's irrelevant. Illegal day laborers built houses and did dry wall work in CRE. Jobs, that without illegals, would be in the official stats. 'Tutes and drug dealers can never be included in official stats as the activity that they perform is in itself illegal...not their immigration status.
"Misean writes:
When these stats are able to track illegal alien unemployment let me know."
Much of the construction work had been performed by hispanics, many who were most likely unauthorized "guest workers". Am curious about the implications of this. Fewer UC claims, lower official unemployment rates but also slower population growth (as many return home) and less demand for retail, apartment rentals, trucks, etc.
btw, an anecdotal observation at my local Walmart; fewer hispanic shoppers & many more upper middle class ladies who in the past would have never been seen in any store less than a Target!
To think this all started with a $2B loss at bear stearns.Of course $2B was a lot more money then than it is now...
Tom Stone
I think it all started with that 250k gains exemption law in 1998 or maybe it was that Robert Kyosaki (sp?)Rich Dad/Poor Dad's fault. Or maybe it started with Al Gore. While inventing the internet he probably invented the housing bubble. That pseudo-green bastard.
Tom Stone writes:
To think this all started with a $2B loss at bear stearns.Of course $2B was a lot more money then than it is now...
Tom Stone | 05.08.08 - 9:21 pm | #
Good point.
Perhaps we will have hit the "bottom" when $2B is once again a considerable sum as compared to reamining shareholder's equity.
I don't know how to link to comments but to respond to the above commenter, CR already answered your question this morning. I think it went like this, based on memory. 6% unemployment very likely, 7% possible, still don't believe in the big eight.
Since the continuing claims numbers are somewhat buffered by the cumulative nature of the statistic, I find it pointless to have a 4 week moving average.
Citigroup considers $400bn asset sale
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: May 9 2008 00:41 | Last updated: May 9 2008 00:41
Citigroup will on Friday identify as much as $400bn in non-core assets that could be sold as part of plans to reduce costs and restore profit growth to double-digit rates, according to people close to the situation.
At a long-awaited meeting with Wall Street analysts, Vikram Pandit, Citis chief executive, also plans to confirm his pledge, first disclosed in the Financial Times, to cut Citis cost base of over $60bn by about 20 per cent.
"No, no, no... they could never show up in the official stats because they are jobs Americans won't do. Didn't you get the memo?"
Bwahahahaha!
As an aside, the co. I work for has an office in Sacremento. I had to do some work there on a Saturday, and a tree trimming crew showed up. Bunch of college kids having a blast climbing trees and landscaping. Lots of young men banter. Guess the land lord had trouble finding illegals to make the rounds and Shanghaied these guys. Else they wanted to do the damned job for the money to buy beer that night.
Oh, and btw, RE agents and their assorted RE minions are often independent contractors. So they don't get to be in the rolls either. Some of these people made good money.
Rubin: Sorry sir, we turned them into the discount window for t-bills that we swapped to pay for the underwriting for the preferred shares that we're paying 8.5% on in order to pay the dividend to keep the share price from going into the toilet!
Pandit: Then sell a bunch of worthless assets and do something obviously manipulative.
Rubin: Like what sir?
Pandit: I don't know, what would Mozillo do?
Rubin: He'd say that we're on a hiring spree to pick up all the best and brightest from the other companies with inferior business models while he creates a share repurchase plan to buy up all his personal holdings on the open market.
Pandit: Too late for that. I've got it. Let's raise the dividend!
My wife is a realtor, self employed. I guess I could be considered an investor as I just read blogs and manage my money and investments. My neighbor is a carpenter. He works with 4 other carpenters, 2 plumbers (maybe two actually file taxes). We all could lose our jobs tomorrow and the official stats wouldn't change. We can't file for unemployment even though we pay into it and have paid a bunch into it. As far as the government is concerned, we don't exist, except when i make that fat tax payment every quarter/year.
There's something happening here, what it is, ain't exactly clear..
I'm hoping for another big rally so i can buy a bunch more of SRS and a little SKF. It will be good for the economy. I'll pay taxes on my gains.
I'm not getting it tonight. Either I hit a time warp or everyone is rehashing things that we ID'd a long
time ago (RE jobs not identified by official unemployment stats, illegal workers not being counted, jobs being lost as a result of the real estate bubble bursting), and acting like it is real-time divulged, cutting edged news. We all know the South of the Border worker wasn't counted and, has left or is in the process of leaving, etc... What gives?
Is it time for a group 'tini shotgun to bring sanity back? I can provide some moonshine, for moonshine 'tinis, if needed.
What about construction employment remaining stubbornly high despite falls in starts? This used to be a hot topic but has faded recently - after we got into the financial mess if memory serves me right.
WHat happens to the continuing claims when the unlucky collecting soul gets to the end of his rope? Does he fall off the stat? In that case extending unemployment benefits that the dems want to do and dubya is opposed to, makes sense, from a perception standpoint. McCain doesn't want to run if continuing claims are 8million.
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization says the global food bill has risen 57pc in the last year. Soaring freight rates have compounded the effect. The Balic Dry Index has doubled since January, vaulting through the 10,000 mark this week.
So is Citi gonna play beat the number for the next couple of years by divestiture and cost cutting(although part of the same shit sandwich) or cleave off a big chunk to cover their fanny for various exposures and become a lean and mean organization that knows how to lose lots of money.
Cut 20% of the alleged asset base while shedding an equal amount of "cost base". Does Citi still have Travelers around to unload?
once you get started with an idiotic economic system like this, debt must never stop growing because everyone owes both the money AND interest, and that means that money must never stop growing, even if you are just paying the interest that is due this money that was borrowed
i am reading that when workers unemployment benefits have run out they are no longer counted among the ranks of the unemployed...
also not counted
those who get a part time job
underemployed
give up (discouraged workers)
welfare
return to school and others
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Is_it_true_that_in_the_calculation_of_nation's_unemployment_rate_un-employees_who_stopped_receiving_unemployment_benefits_are_not_counted
First?
Looks like a repeat of dotcom, pretty gloomy.
Need to hit 400-420 initial, 3200 continuing to convince me we are really screwed.
I notice that if it contained the presumed start of the recession you put in your graphs, the continuing claims would be about the same as it was at the start of the last recession.
CR, any update to your personal expectation on unemployment figures?
I believe a million job losses by the end of 08 is very possible as well as a 6% unemployment rate.
300 now
700 by September
1 mil by the end of December
Then another mil in 2009. Easily put the unemployment rate at 7%.
I see your point that an 8% unemployment rate may be too drastic.
When these stats are able to track illegal alien unemployment let me know.
The local hangs of illegal day laborers along Ventura blvd are increasingly empty these days.
Cheers,
Well the Government better do something about the rising number of unemployed...and quick!
How else is the Treasury going to collect enough tax receipts to pay for ALL of the stimulus/bailout programs?!?
Misean,
good to hear from you agai
mock turtle,
Unleashing a new database on the clusers at work. It's eating my brain and time.
p.s. cluser=clueless user. :-0
Cheers,
Official unemployment numbers always fail to capture the unofficial employment like prostitution, drug dealing, and armed robbery (which likely have an inverse corrolation to rising official unemployment), so they will always be inaccurate. Six or eight tricks a day and you can make a good living (as long as you don't go blow it at Uncle Cracky's place).
Elvis,
"Official unemployment numbers always fail to capture the unofficial employment like prostitution, drug dealing, and armed robbery..."
Yeah well that's irrelevant. Illegal day laborers built houses and did dry wall work in CRE. Jobs, that without illegals, would be in the official stats. 'Tutes and drug dealers can never be included in official stats as the activity that they perform is in itself illegal...not their immigration status.
Cheers,
"Misean writes:
When these stats are able to track illegal alien unemployment let me know."
Much of the construction work had been performed by hispanics, many who were most likely unauthorized "guest workers". Am curious about the implications of this. Fewer UC claims, lower official unemployment rates but also slower population growth (as many return home) and less demand for retail, apartment rentals, trucks, etc.
btw, an anecdotal observation at my local Walmart; fewer hispanic shoppers & many more upper middle class ladies who in the past would have never been seen in any store less than a Target!
Misean,
What's up? Are you Imposter Misean or are you just playing "obvious night?"
JJW,
Let me save you the wait. We are really screwed.
The only new jobs being added in my area are grocery store clerks and anything to do with bankruptcies and foreclosures.
To think this all started with a $2B loss at bear stearns.Of course $2B was a lot more money then than it is now...
To think this all started with a $2B loss at bear stearns.Of course $2B was a lot more money then than it is now...
Tom Stone
I think it all started with that 250k gains exemption law in 1998 or maybe it was that Robert Kyosaki (sp?)Rich Dad/Poor Dad's fault. Or maybe it started with Al Gore. While inventing the internet he probably invented the housing bubble. That pseudo-green bastard.
Tom Stone writes:
To think this all started with a $2B loss at bear stearns.Of course $2B was a lot more money then than it is now...
Tom Stone | 05.08.08 - 9:21 pm | #
Good point.
Perhaps we will have hit the "bottom" when $2B is once again a considerable sum as compared to reamining shareholder's equity.
Elvis,
"What's up? Are you Imposter Misean or are you just playing "obvious night?"
The Super Colander Tin Foil Hat would prevent an imposter. At least it should. Several 'tini's on the other hand can prevent anything.
I've checked the mirror and I appear to be me. So I don't think a T-1000 has dopplegangered me.
Should my arm turn into a sword, all bets are off, however.
Cheers,
Good, I like having the Non-Imposter Misean around.
"How else is the Treasury going to collect enough tax receipts to pay for ALL of the stimulus/bailout programs?!?"
They'll borrow every last cent of savings in the world until they get cut off then it will be don't cry for me Argentina.
I don't know how to link to comments but to respond to the above commenter, CR already answered your question this morning. I think it went like this, based on memory. 6% unemployment very likely, 7% possible, still don't believe in the big eight.
Now, stop reading blogs and get a job.
Thanks CR, good catch. Pictures still speak clearer than words.
Since the continuing claims numbers are somewhat buffered by the cumulative nature of the statistic, I find it pointless to have a 4 week moving average.
Illegal day laborers built houses and did dry wall work in CRE. Jobs, that without illegals, would be in the official stats.
No, no, no... they could never show up in the official stats because they are jobs Americans won't do. Didn't you get the memo?
bsneath,
"Much of the construction work had been performed by hispanics, many who were most likely unauthorized "guest workers"
Nope, they're illegal aliens.
Guests are invited.
Cheers,
OT: Citibank's having a yardsale.
FT.com / Financials - Citigroup considers $400bn asset sales
Citigroup considers $400bn asset sale
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: May 9 2008 00:41 | Last updated: May 9 2008 00:41
Citigroup will on Friday identify as much as $400bn in non-core assets that could be sold as part of plans to reduce costs and restore profit growth to double-digit rates, according to people close to the situation.
At a long-awaited meeting with Wall Street analysts, Vikram Pandit, Citis chief executive, also plans to confirm his pledge, first disclosed in the Financial Times, to cut Citis cost base of over $60bn by about 20 per cent.
dryfly
"No, no, no... they could never show up in the official stats because they are jobs Americans won't do. Didn't you get the memo?"
Bwahahahaha!
As an aside, the co. I work for has an office in Sacremento. I had to do some work there on a Saturday, and a tree trimming crew showed up. Bunch of college kids having a blast climbing trees and landscaping. Lots of young men banter. Guess the land lord had trouble finding illegals to make the rounds and Shanghaied these guys. Else they wanted to do the damned job for the money to buy beer that night.
I'm not sure which
Cheers,
Slightly OT, but check out this Hillary video:
Meanwhile, deep inside Hillary's brain:
The Secret Diary of Steve Jobs: Meanwhile, deep inside Hillary's brain ...
Oh, and btw, RE agents and their assorted RE minions are often independent contractors. So they don't get to be in the rolls either. Some of these people made good money.
I'm just saying...
Cheers,
Blitzer Heirenstaubein that is very OT.
It is so wrong on so many levels.
You are a bad, bad boy...
I loved it.
A financial play in one act.
location: Citigroup internal board meeting
Pandit: Cabin boy! Fetch me my brown trousers!
Rubin: Sorry sir, we turned them into the discount window for t-bills that we swapped to pay for the underwriting for the preferred shares that we're paying 8.5% on in order to pay the dividend to keep the share price from going into the toilet!
Pandit: Then sell a bunch of worthless assets and do something obviously manipulative.
Rubin: Like what sir?
Pandit: I don't know, what would Mozillo do?
Rubin: He'd say that we're on a hiring spree to pick up all the best and brightest from the other companies with inferior business models while he creates a share repurchase plan to buy up all his personal holdings on the open market.
Pandit: Too late for that. I've got it. Let's raise the dividend!
Rubin: Brilliant, sir!
Blitzer Heirenstaubein,
The irony will be on Nov. 4th when BO loses 0-50. The Dems will have wished they'd run the bitch - at least to push blame elsewhere.
Gee, Bangalore torpedoed the stance that things aren't really all that bad.
Wa - Wa - Wa - Waaaaaaaaaa
Sorry, couldn't resist.
My wife is a realtor, self employed. I guess I could be considered an investor as I just read blogs and manage my money and investments. My neighbor is a carpenter. He works with 4 other carpenters, 2 plumbers (maybe two actually file taxes). We all could lose our jobs tomorrow and the official stats wouldn't change. We can't file for unemployment even though we pay into it and have paid a bunch into it. As far as the government is concerned, we don't exist, except when i make that fat tax payment every quarter/year.
There's something happening here, what it is, ain't exactly clear..
I'm hoping for another big rally so i can buy a bunch more of SRS and a little SKF. It will be good for the economy. I'll pay taxes on my gains.
p.s. cluser=clueless user. :-0
That's OK; they are calling you names right about now too.
Now, stop reading blogs and get a job.
Do you have one to give me?
What's the blip in 05? Katrina?
Emma Anne,
"p.s. cluser=clueless user. :-0
That's OK; they are calling you names right about now too. :-)"
Uh huh!
nt load letter anyone?
YouTube - System Administrator's Day song
Cheers,
Emma Anne, yes - that was related to Katrina and Rita.
Best Wishes.
Blitzer Heirenstaubein | 05.08.08 - 9:57 pm | #
That was a brilliant piece of work.
Shame it's not fiction.
Blitzer Heirenstaubein
Disturbing.
I would like to know the movie please.
Cheers,
I'd like to thank all The Super Delegates (here) for that supportive welcome tonight!
Misean: I think it is the Bunker staring Sir Anthony Hopkins
The Bunker (1981) (TV)
Blitzer:
All time classic. That made my night.
I'm not getting it tonight. Either I hit a time warp or everyone is rehashing things that we ID'd a long
time ago (RE jobs not identified by official unemployment stats, illegal workers not being counted, jobs being lost as a result of the real estate bubble bursting), and acting like it is real-time divulged, cutting edged news. We all know the South of the Border worker wasn't counted and, has left or is in the process of leaving, etc... What gives?
Is it time for a group 'tini shotgun to bring sanity back? I can provide some moonshine, for moonshine 'tinis, if needed.
I'm kind of weirded out.
What's the blip in 05? Katrina?
Yeah, the timing is about right. That blip was a 700k bump in initial claims. How many were in NOLA proper ?
So MetLife gets access to the discount window? Rich, help me out here....ML-implode says MetLife is buying FirstHorizon:
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter News Pick-ups: First Horizon / MetLife a "Done Deal"
Any idea why the institutional investors are selling in waves?
Safe Haven | Are Institutional Investors Close to Selling?
I just love the way CR drops in to answer an on track question in the midst of all the weird by-play.
Who's next?
India suspends trading in soybean oil, potatoes, rubber and chickpeas
India bans futures trading in four more commodities: reports - MarketWatch
Okay, I get the food. What's up with the rubber?
CR,
What about construction employment remaining stubbornly high despite falls in starts? This used to be a hot topic but has faded recently - after we got into the financial mess if memory serves me right.
WHat happens to the continuing claims when the unlucky collecting soul gets to the end of his rope? Does he fall off the stat? In that case extending unemployment benefits that the dems want to do and dubya is opposed to, makes sense, from a perception standpoint. McCain doesn't want to run if continuing claims are 8million.
Convenient way to keep up appearances.
$400bn in non-core assets
make that 4 bullet's
that's some serious non-performers there.
geez , if Pandit can get close to fair market on that stuff,he may be able to supersize his big-mac meal
ow if he can mark it to fantasy, he can get xom, ge ...that would be quite the trade.
Misean,
It's called Der Untergang (The Downfall).
Der Untergang (2004)
And BO will lose 'cause BO is Black.
Ain't sayin' it's right, just sayin' we're racist.
CR, Isn't it true that 2 + 2 = 4? And what do you get if you take 1 away from 4? Baffled.
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization says the global food bill has risen 57pc in the last year. Soaring freight rates have compounded the effect. The Balic Dry Index has doubled since January, vaulting through the 10,000 mark this week.
Global free market for food and energy faces biggest threat in decades - Telegraph
So is Citi gonna play beat the number for the next couple of years by divestiture and cost cutting(although part of the same shit sandwich) or cleave off a big chunk to cover their fanny for various exposures and become a lean and mean organization that knows how to lose lots of money.
Cut 20% of the alleged asset base while shedding an equal amount of "cost base". Does Citi still have Travelers around to unload?
Why didn't they just hire Carly Fiorina?
justSlightly OT, but check out this Hillary video:
Meanwhile, deep inside Hillary's brain:
Blogger: Page not found brain.html
al sharpton, jesse jackson, rev wrong, and b obama will be playing crack whore with chelsea in the white house come jan21
once you get started with an idiotic economic system like this, debt must never stop growing because everyone owes both the money AND interest, and that means that money must never stop growing, even if you are just paying the interest that is due this money that was borrowed
A fear of falling Fed credit
Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
barely at 11:03
i am reading that when workers unemployment benefits have run out they are no longer counted among the ranks of the unemployed...
also not counted
those who get a part time job
underemployed
give up (discouraged workers)
welfare
return to school and others
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Is_it_true_that_in_the_calculation_of_nation's_unemployment_rate_un-employees_who_stopped_receiving_unemployment_benefits_are_not_counted
i will try to find a more authoritative link.
MET already bought most of the profitable bits of Travelers back in '05. (Annuities and Individual Life)
For those who care, here's some data.
Citi - About Citi - Press Room
IIRC, the P&C arm was spun off as it's own company not too long afterwards.
http://www.travelers.com/SPT03PortalMain.asp?startpage=/corporate/ThomsonJump.html?p=irol-irhome
Apparently, things are really peachy, and markets will hit new highs later this year:
Facts show we're not in a recession or bear market. Outside the Box - MarketWatch
Effe