Housing Bust: The Hamptons to Atlanta

I'd rather buy a Yugo.

As the saying goes, whent the tide goes out, you get to see who's swimming naked. Even in the Hamptons.

Is $10,000 a bottom price? Pretty soon the banks will be hiring live-in caretakers.

This does happen! In 1989 I bought a fixer beach house and its small lot from an estate for $10,000. It is located in Crystal Beach, Texas, Galveston County some 60 miles and a free 20 minute ferry ride from Houston. I sold it in 1995 when I moved to Dallas. I may buy another one in this bust.

tear 'em down and sell it for parts

Atlanta has some very problematic ZIPs. Unfortunately it's been that way for years (prior to this downturn). A MGIC contract UW we hired had a cheat sheet that had a warning and listed about a dozen ZIPs to look out for. There has been progress and their is some gentrification but some of the problematic ZIPs of the past will be problematic in the future.

kett82, in Detroit, there are homes selling for around $1 (obviously the homes have negative value - since the owner is liable).

Best Wishes

$20,000 for a house is still a little pricey. But at least we're getting there.

I just google earth'ed one of the ZIP codes... What's wrong with those places? Living in the suburbs of a crowded european city, 10 or 20 grands for a house over there seem just impossible. With today's euros it's not even an year of salary of a unskilled worker.
Anybody cares to explain?

kett82 | 05.12.08 - 10:27 am | #

In my area if it has a working well and septic,even if the house is condemned,yes it is worth that if you really want to build. Even at 3k for a lot(normal price) by the time you sink a well and septic or hook to the city you will be close to 30k. BTW cost per sq/ft here in SW Florida has dropped to around 40-50.00 for basic insides...I saw a sign in North Port the other day for a new build,ready move in 3/2/2,2k sq/ft for 90k...

Chris

In my county in western Mass, foreclosures are up 244% yoy, from a very low number. The foreclosures are mostly in blue-collar towns and rural areas. Meanwhile, in our relatively affluent small city, prices are flat and have actually gone up yoy in some neighborhoods. This is one of those areas thought to be recession proof--5 colleges and 2 hospitals in a county of 150,000.

Prices peaked here about three years ago but really haven't fallen much since, at least in nominal terms. They also hadn't risen anything like they did near Boston.

"Anybody cares to explain?"
Alessandro | 05.12.08 - 10:46 am |

In most of the realllllly cheap hoods you need a roof mounted .50 cal(m60 might work) to keep the zombies at bay.

Chris

If East Hampton has problems, NYC has problems, and the US has problems.

Alessandro, Gun controls in this country limit guns to those that can either purchase or steal guns, so barriers are not that high. It's not called the ownership society for nothing. Homes in these Zips are probably like sieves, complete with bullet-hole mood lighting.

capiche?

More from the Atlanta article "Wimberly said he'd recently sold a home in West End that tells the tale of what's happened in some neighborhoods. The home sold in March 2004 for $305,000 and then in August 2004 for $700,000. It tumbled to $122,900 in a sale last year. It sold recently for $51,000."

If the rule of thumb was limiting the price you pay for a home to 3 times family earnings, then we are still a long way from the bottom in most areas. With high fuel prices, the multiplier is probably 2 to 2.5 family income.

The home sold in March 2004 for $305,000 and then in August 2004 for $700,000. It tumbled to $122,900 in a sale last year. It sold recently for $51,000."
Anonymous | 05.12.08 - 10:56 am | #

O.K.,I can find huge losses through my local research but that right there is pretty damn impressive!!!

Chris

The listing the names of the rich folk in foreclosure is brutal.

No one will boot you out of the social circle (afraid of getting it - you - all over their shoe.) You're probably just expected to go away.

Better to own your little castle, like a blog posters, Anon.

And yet Atlanta's prices still look stable over at Housing tracker?

@Cobradriver and @barely
I see. We've got our fair share of dangerous neibourhoods in my city as well, but they don't look that nice. More like a series of 20 floors towers one after the other.

Bob_in_MA writes:
In my county in western Mass, foreclosures are up 244% yoy, from a very low number. The foreclosures are mostly in blue-collar towns and rural areas. Meanwhile, in our relatively affluent small city, prices are flat and have actually gone up yoy in some neighborhoods. This is one of those areas thought to be recession proof--5 colleges and 2 hospitals in a county of 150,000.

No offense Bob but you are really tempting the devil. Just because there are still a few legacy industries in Berkshire you are seriously underestimating some massive shifts. Look just a few miles to the west in Buffalo, etc. They have legacy industry, fine hospitals, great universities and still imploded. I remember when GE Plastics had world class research labs there doing Nobel level work. Nevermind that, the demographics make me shudder. Not the racist tinge of the recent immigrant problems but the age distribution of very young and very old. I track my old home town of West Spfld. They show much of the same A curious price stickiness. I'm thinking it is just cultural obfuscation as frugal Yankees suffer in the shadows. BTW, since when is the University of West Street count as a real college? Wink

Cobradriver - Wayne Flanagan will throw in a streetsweeper with purchase.

Alessandro, Gun controls in this country limit guns to those that can either purchase or steal guns, so barriers are not that high. It's not called the ownership society for nothing. Homes in these Zips are probably like sieves, complete with bullet-hole mood lighting.

Well if you're going to have guns I guess it makes sense to give them to people who actually make a living with them.

On the other hand if you're more into gun control, I think there's some appeal to saying: "OK, you can have a gun but it's got to be mounted either on the roof of your house or in your window so we know you're not just an ex-Realtor or Wall Street analyst making a career change."

Look just a few miles to the west in Buffalo, etc. They have legacy industry, fine hospitals, great universities and still imploded.

Upstate NY is a special case, since New York's government is totally dysfunctional. The entire upper part of the state is being kept in a late 20th century cryogenic freeze by Albany policymakers.

Re: the crazy swing in price for that ATL house. Even with all the craziness in values, that sounds like fraud and there was a lot of fraud in ATL. There were a couple of profiles of the fraud in the WSJ last fall I think.

$20,000 for a house is still a little pricey. But at least we're getting there.

I paid 13k for the one I'm living in, I dump my house in CA in September of 05. This place was furnished, had a new roof and a lean on it for the new siding that was for 13k. Itcost about 50 a month in taxes and isn't worth insuring. This has been a great place to watch this implosion from and will go to church as a donation in a few years. Nice neighbors to although they still think I paid to much.

At 10K, isnt better for the community to knock down buildings and turn them into greenspace? Less overhead like streetlights, garbage, and other services.

Rob Dawg,

No, not Berkshire, Hampshire. Berkshire is like Upstate NY. Old industries gone, tourism up.

And I wasn't offering opinion, just observations.

The old industries left this area long, long ago. Hardly any of the mills made it out of the 1930s. The Mill River Flood of 1874 killed off a lot of the mills. There are still small manufacturing plants around, but they are small.

I was born in a small city in Upstate NY, not far from Buffalo, about the same size as this one. The difference is night and day. Buffalo is not known for it's great universities, there is one mediocre university. That is my main memory of that area, a great mediocrity.

The Springfield area has a lot of absentee landlords, there was a lot of speculation there. Not the same animal either.

Rob Dawg... I live about a mile from the University of West St. Bite your tongue.

I do agree, however, that the prices are somewhat sticky... so far. I commute to Springfield every day and know by heart where all the for sale signs are. None have moved, and I'd say that in the past 2 weeks the # for sale has jumped about 25%.

Spring selling season is definitely here !

The home sold . . . in August 2004 for $700,000 . . .It sold recently for $51,000."

That's a decline of 92.7%. A few years ago, Sir John Templeton predicted a decline in residential real estate of only 90%.

Alessandro, you have those neighbourhoods also in Europe. I saw a few years ago a program about a north english council estate were you could buy homes for less than 10.000 pounds (100.000 was at that time a cheap house there). And it wasn't because the homes were dumps. It had more to do with the fact that you couldn't get a job when your employer saw your zip code.

30310 and 30315 are pretty bad neighborhoods. http://www.atlantapd.org/ucr/2007/z4Dec07.pdf

About a year and a half ago a car dealership in South GA had a sign up "Buy a car, get a free condo."

What can I say? People saw this coming.

There is a lot of supply in most of the ATL region, enough so a property in a bad neighborhood is hard to move.

The price of a used car? Whoever wrote that needs to check out recent used car prices; $10,000 is near the top, there are countless used cars out there going for $5,000 or less.

Not until I looked at used car prices did I start thinking that Mish might be right; food and oil price inflation is one thing, but when you factor in dramatic drops in housing and (used) automobiles, we may be looking at deflation overall.

Bob_in_MA writes:
Rob Dawg,

No, not Berkshire, Hampshire.

Apologies. An entirely different set of circumstances. As long as 25% of the population in Hampshire county remain 15-24 courtesy of the 5 real colleges there is some expectation of stability.

Fish,
If I know enough to call it "University of West St." don't I get something? Say free popcorn at the bank? Greater Pittsfield, and I use the term loosely, could go the way of their Quaker neighbors. Regardless, I've oft daydreamed of buying 600-700 acres and a bulldozer to create an exclusive 4 season "fly-in" community. Rough golf, X-Country skiing, small airstrip, executive cabins. Maybe if my great grandfather's farm ever sells again.

Peripheral Visionary | 05.12.08 - 12:08 pm |

I just got another email back from a Excursion seller. A 2001 with 129k and the 7.3 diesel. Asking 7k. Half of low NADA value. He just wrote he posted the add Saturday morning and he just closed the sale this morning...Crap,missed another Smile. People are buying but only the cheap bastards like me...

Chris

I just zillowed that area. Home prices have cratered because there are literally tons of homes that are partially completed and boarded up. This place looks like Detroit from a zillow point of view.

NO THANK YOU.

As long as 25% of the population in Hampshire county remain 15-24 courtesy of the 5 real colleges there is some expectation of stability.

I'm going to get all choked up...I went to undergrad there. Beautiful area that has pretty much remained the same (minus a couple of cornfields where malls and strip malls now are) since I was there...jobwise too. UMass is a huge employer, and S Hadley is the asparagras capital of the world. Used to be lots of tobacco too, but I think that's gone. Pretty insulated from the boom/bust because of it's location.

All the factories moved out long ago, and Springfield has not seen any resurgence in many years. The funny thing about MA is that from Worcester to Boston doesn't resemble anything at all from Worcester to the West. Either in industry or political tilt.

Rob Dawg

I do appreciate the West St and popcorn references. Unfortunately no cheap acreage anywhere in the Berkshires. Buildable lots in Lenox/Richmond go for 250k, boonies (the real boonies) a little less.

Bousquet is for sale though.

Cobradriver - are you still here?
I saw a sign in North Port the other day for a new build,ready move in 3/2/2,2k sq/ft for 90k...

I'm looking thru realtor.com but can't find that one, maybe because it's yet unbuilt. Prices are much lower in Northport than I thought, but still nothing as low as what you saw on the sign, so I'm wondering if that price included the sheetrock, or what.

My poor sister bought a condo in Northport last year for a great price of $175K. Sad Maybe I should take up a collection to get her mortgage paid off and cheer her up a little.

If the rule of thumb was limiting the price you pay for a home to 3 times family earnings, then we are still a long way from the bottom in most areas. With high fuel prices, the multiplier is probably 2 to 2.5 family income.

That was the rule of thumb, but I don't think we're going to see those levels again. With magazine racks chock-a-block with what your home is "supposed" to look like, not to mention TV channels, people are going to spend MORE of their income on their houses, and if that means 40 or even 50 year mortgages, so be it.

High gas prices are just going to cause a value shift between inner and outer suburbs, and to places with good arterial roads from those without. Heck, maybe not even that. I'm not confident in the ability of J6P first-time homeowner to realize how much extra gas that outer-burb place will be costing him until a month or two after closing...

Cobra driver,

The guy selling the X was an idiot. He could have easily got book or more if it was truly a 7.3L diesel and in decent shape. They are VERY popular for particular reasons and a person thinking out of the box might identify this.

Now a V10 or a 5.4L. Can't give them away.

Fish writes:
... Buildable lots in Lenox/Richmond go for 250k, boonies (the real boonies) a little less.

I was thinking my great grandparent's type property off the beaten track Cummington or whatever. Like: Cummington, MA, 01026 - MLS #182058 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®
200 acres so I'm thinking we need a little more correction before I can get the right 6-800 ac for 2 million or so.

Bousquet is for sale though.

Really? Wow. With the Maunder minimum and lots of other factors I'd love to be in on the deal going forward. Nah... truth be told their "black" slopes wouldn't interest me to teach my youngest. [For the record I've rope towed there with cable bindings on my wooden skis. ]

Outsider | 05.12.08 - 2:34 pm | #

Sorry it took so long...
Not on the MLS. It is a billboard on Toledo Blade between I75 and 41. Ouch,175k in North Port. Hopefully it has water views...

"Now a V10 or a 5.4L. Can't give them away.
brokeback benny | 05.12.08 - 3:16 pm | #"

That is what I have been looking at. I was as surprised as you at the price. I guess when people need cash now its gotta go. A v10 would do me just fine. I will tow about 2500 a year...

Chris

The truth is these zip are 99% black. This report will explain why the home are going for as little as 3000k
Demographic Report for: Fulton County, GA - Census Tract 005700 Block 2 ZIP 30315
Age \t 0-15 \t16-21 \t22-34 \t35-44 \t
Male \t18.98% \t4.85% ????\t\t7.20% \t
Female \t7.89% \t2.63% \t4.71% \t10.94% \t

Block Average Household Income: 18500
Education
No Diploma \t256
HS Diploma \t139
AA Degree \t0
BA/BS Degree \t14
Housing
Year \tMove-In \tBuilt
1999-2000 \t51 \t0
1995-98 \t92 \t0
1990-94 \t18 \t0
1980-89 \t43 \t0
1970-79 \t10 \t13
Before 1970 \t45 \t320
Gross Rent
$ 0-299 \t44
$300-549 \t63
$550-749 \t23
$750+ \t19
Average \t372

Occupancy
Owner \t87
Renter \t172
SFR Det \t258
SFR Att \t6
MF 2-4 \t59
MF 5+ \t10
Mobile Home \t0
NO ONE WANTS TO LIVE THERE THAT DOES NOT ALREADY. PEOPLE THAT ARE WANT TO GET OUT BUT ARE TO POOR TO MOVE.
WHAT ABOUT NO MALES IN THE SURVEY IN THE 22-34 AGE BRACKET THAT IS SCARY ARE ALL THE YOUNG BLACK MAN IN JAIL...

Chris,

Sounds too good to be true. You know how it goes.

You will only drive it 2500,..or only tow 2500? If you are only going to drive it 2500 towing or not...The V10 is a great motor and you can get these for 7000-10000 cheaper than a diesel on a comparable vehicle.

the diesels carry a premium for more than just the torque and increased mileage. Your a Ford guy,....it gives running an "SVO" new meaning. Check it out.

Atlanta's West End area where the house went from $700K to $51K does have some VERY beautiful Victorian era mansions. Up until the 1950's it was a pretty posh area--Atlanta's Federal Reserve Bank used to be located there.The problem with living in West End now is that it is Atlanta's equivalent of Israel's West Bank.

I am originally from Atlanta. I would not drive through those neighborhoods in broad daylight. Many of the foreclosures in Atlanta are in the slums. Speculators and crooked mortgage brokers went in, put a coat of paint on a shack, laid down new carpet, and sod. Then they sold the house for zero down with teaser rates. The families who fell for this are some of the least financial savvy people living in America for a variety of reasons. They were sold something that wasn't. The orginal lenders? Long gone with their money. Who knows where those mortgages went?

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