Can anyone explain what exactly the thinking behind Radian's write-back (ie positive P+L item) of $2.06 billion related to "impact of SFAS No. 157 fair value methodology change related to Radian's non-performance risk" is?
It seems like they're saying "Well, there's a probability we won't be able to pay these claims, so we're going to write them down"
Which, to anyone but an accountant would surely be madness?
As a percentage of unpaid principal balance, about 8.3 percent of the loans in IndyMac's mortgage servicing portfolio were at least 30 days late as of March 31. That's up from 5.4 percent a year earlier and up from 7.3 percent on Dec. 31, IndyMac said.
Loans 90 days past due or in foreclosure represented 6.5 percent of total assets, up from 1.1 percent in the year-ago period and up from 4.6 percent as of the close of the fourth quarter.
This weekend, USA Today ran a story on prime loans going belly up at an increasing rate. No surprises to this crowd, no specifical details -- almost like an opinion piece. I have a feeling they were preparing their readership for bad things to come.
The new definition of prime: someone who can afford the loan after it resets. By that definition, most prime is subprime.
Elvis, they saw this two years ago. But two years ago, they also owns Litton Loan Servicing along with C-Bass and were making money hand over fist on both legitimate and fraudulent defaults.
Now that Litton has been sold off, they no longer have reason or incentive to keep quiet...
This is kind of O/T, but some Alt-A loans reboot rate is based on the 6 month LIBOR rate, so maybe not O/T.
With 6 mo. LIBOR below 3% and dropping, my particular Alt-A 5 year fixed interest only which reboots 5/1/05, with a 2.25% margin could reset (for 6 mos) below 5%! (from current 4.625%)
THat would be a pleasant surprise.
Anyone know if the falling UK market means the 6 mo LIBOR would likely keep dropping to below 2% levels of 6 years ago?
No surprises here. Look at Bernankes charts-http://blog.metro-real-estate.com/?p=360 and the ARM reset calendar for ALT-A and Option ARMS-http://blog.metro-real-estate.com/?p=360
Why couldn't they see this two years ago?
Elvis, It's only now the rain is gone.
Here's a story about the housing market in Spain.
Helldorado: How expats dream life in the Spanish sunshine has turned into a property nightmare | Mail Online
Can anyone explain what exactly the thinking behind Radian's write-back (ie positive P+L item) of $2.06 billion related to "impact of SFAS No. 157 fair value methodology change related to Radian's non-performance risk" is?
It seems like they're saying "Well, there's a probability we won't be able to pay these claims, so we're going to write them down"
Which, to anyone but an accountant would surely be madness?
arggg, the houses in Spain fall mainly on the plain? help! I'm trapped in some weird analogy space in this thread!
So a bottom is forming?
We're not in a subprime or an ARM crisis, we are in a liar-loan crisis.
The subprime and ARM crisis will come later, when interest rates begin to rise again.
This website (via Barry Ritholtz Big Picture) is long, long overdue:
Ben Stein - Dickipedia - A Wiki of Dicks
A question of how long before Jas Jain, jg and ipodius get their own entries
Hey, just kidding! None of you reach the uber-dick status of a Ben Stein.
SPF was big in CA and FL - stock is crashing today. No bottom for them.
Indymac item that sticks out-
As a percentage of unpaid principal balance, about 8.3 percent of the loans in IndyMac's mortgage servicing portfolio were at least 30 days late as of March 31. That's up from 5.4 percent a year earlier and up from 7.3 percent on Dec. 31, IndyMac said.
Loans 90 days past due or in foreclosure represented 6.5 percent of total assets, up from 1.1 percent in the year-ago period and up from 4.6 percent as of the close of the fourth quarter.
This weekend, USA Today ran a story on prime loans going belly up at an increasing rate. No surprises to this crowd, no specifical details -- almost like an opinion piece. I have a feeling they were preparing their readership for bad things to come.
The new definition of prime: someone who can afford the loan after it resets. By that definition, most prime is subprime.
Elvis, they saw this two years ago. But two years ago, they also owns Litton Loan Servicing along with C-Bass and were making money hand over fist on both legitimate and fraudulent defaults.
Now that Litton has been sold off, they no longer have reason or incentive to keep quiet...
This is kind of O/T, but some Alt-A loans reboot rate is based on the 6 month LIBOR rate, so maybe not O/T.
With 6 mo. LIBOR below 3% and dropping, my particular Alt-A 5 year fixed interest only which reboots 5/1/05, with a 2.25% margin could reset (for 6 mos) below 5%! (from current 4.625%)
THat would be a pleasant surprise.
Anyone know if the falling UK market means the 6 mo LIBOR would likely keep dropping to below 2% levels of 6 years ago?
Thanks,
Dave
Interest rates are going up. Look at these resets on the horizon http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RxzD0s_7EYI/AAAAAAAABB4/ljDSXZhMG3o/s1600-h/IMFresets.jpg
Bonds and stocks moving up together. Who is right?
The denial out there is staggering.
One of the mayoral candidates in Davis asked someone to analyze the local RE market. Here is a write up of the study. The People's Vanguard of Davis: Analysis: Data Shows No Relationship Between Housing Prices and Rate of Growth in Davis
It's a long rationalization for why the good areas won't crack yada yada yada.
Add in oil up and the dollar is down but the DOW is up?
OT, but just a note to let you know I like the new format. It is very clean and easy on the eyes.
How long does irrational exhuberance last? Truly bewildered on market sentiment right now..or should I say I'm taking it in the shorts.
Maybe long is the new bubble....
Gary,
I really enjoyed dickipedia! Thanks for the reference...
Main Page - Dickipedia - A Wiki of Dicks
yeah ... copy and print Dpedia... won't last long , i figure
No surprises here. Look at Bernankes charts-http://blog.metro-real-estate.com/?p=360 and the ARM reset calendar for ALT-A and Option ARMS-http://blog.metro-real-estate.com/?p=360