Architecture Billings Index Remains Weak
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 05/21/2008 - 9:08am (26 comments)
in
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can those guys design a new fed
All the housing numbers for April have been pretty consistent, I wonder if it's a case of raw land for custom homes or teardowns for custom homes. Right now wouldn't be the worst time to be picking over contractors.
OK, lets build a project that nobody wants, get the money from Wachovia( the numbers do not have to make sense there), will pocket our profits from the construction loan, then give it back to wachovia and then to the FED.
I love being a Capitalist.
So you're saying housing is bottoming?
first?
Not even close
Incredible, bad news from the FOMC notes, and the market actually DROPS. I better start drinking again. Naw, it'll close in the green.
LEH jan options big uptick
1.26 0.22 jan20p
In a world of $150 oil, there will be a lot of work for architects as old energy-guzzling facilities are town down and rennovated or replaced.
Likewise for a cap-and-trade system.
Likewise for a national commitment to rebuilding infrastructure.
An architect isn't a bad thing to be.
2:00 Fed dissenters: Any more cuts would prove costly
Costly like $200 a barrel oil, or costly like the sacrifice of all first born sons, or how costly...?
Btw, to those of you asleep, the financial markets are responding to these minutes as though they'd made a new rate decision.
Sebastian, O-Joe, Ipodsomething!! Get to your account and BUY BUY BUY !! Everything's on sale!!
The key here is that the index fell off a cliff in early 2008, and that there is "an approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending".
Maybe, but seems there was a pretty good bounce in April, and The inquiries for new projects score was 53.9.
So back to Rich's point that maybe we're seeing some sector rotation.
what no more rate cuts??? the fed's worried about inflation? what a bunch of clowns!
i see severe stagflation ahead, followed by demand destruction in bubbled assets, followed by deflation, followed by depression. welcome to your personal nightmare ben bernanke!
"An architect isn't a bad thing to be."
How about a high priced Ho, is that a bad thing to be?
Semi OT:
Found on Riskopedia, anatomy of a CPDO presentation.
http://riskopedia.files.wordpress.com/2007/03/cpdo.pdf
rising unemployment, high inflation ... can anyone say stagflation? Can we get Volcker back as Fed Chair?
What are you guys worried about. There's nothing but blue sky ahead. The architecture index is telling up the bottom is IN.
Hapsburger,
That April ABI rating of 45.5 indicates April billings were lower than those in March.
It isn't a rebound. Probably won't do for a bellwether.
Oil Rises Above $132 on U.S. Supply Drop, Bank Price Forecasts
Oil Rises Above $134 on U.S. Supply Drop, Bank Price Forecasts - Bloomberg.com
Benny doing helicopter drops so the banks raise forecast.
Message to Bernanke,
Ben, its time to raise rates to pop the oil bubble. Yes Ben, it is a bubble, and yes you created it.
rich writes:
In a world of $150 oil, there will be a lot of work for architects as old energy-guzzling facilities are town down and rennovated or replaced.
Likewise for a cap-and-trade system.
Likewise for a national commitment to rebuilding infrastructure.
An architect isn't a bad thing to be.
rich | 05.21.08 - 2:12 pm | #
Now if only we had money (or money worth something) to trade them for that effort.
I wonder if they will work for food.
That chart is pretty deceptive. Since it seems to be a graph of "rate of change" and 50 is "zero", then we are still declining just at a slower rate. There is no recovery there. A recovery is only at a zero-crossing (50 on the chart). As well, there was no decline until the previous zero crossing. It crossed with historical vigor in Jan-08.
An architect isn't a bad thing to be.
rich | 05.21.08 - 2:12 pm | #
Now if only we had money (or money worth something) to trade them for that effort.
"I wonder if they will work for food."
we already only work for food...
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