Oil is so high that in Poland I'm abandoning my car and using public transport. In the state, where distances are vast, it's not a option yet. Could they implement a more efficient public transport system ?
A car of 500kg or more to move a person of 100 kg is bad economic. Motobike may be ?
A few years ago Ford had $24 B in cash, they blew through that in losses, they then took out a loan and mortgaged their factories. How are they going to pay off their mortgaged factories and afford to stay in business with gas rising and the recession just starting??
I own several Fords and I hope that they'll still be around for a while...??
Oh, good! At least from now on when I'm driving my sedan, I'll be able to see in front of me beyond the gas guzzling truck or SUV in front of me. It used to be this way, you know. But then it became fashionable to drive BIG and TALL.
Here in Canada we are paying $5 per gallon for regular gas (higher gas taxes). It is a study in pain to watch owners of SUVs and pickups standing by their vehicle and filling, filling, filling. I pull in with my 600 cc Honda motorcycle. $15 dollars later I have a full tank and pull away with the SUV/pickup people still pumping and more than $80 showing on the dials. Ouch! With oil selling at double what it was a year ago, gas prices are going a lot higher this summer. So my next venture is a Lithium Ion electric motor assist Trek bicycle. The electric system is made by Bionx in Quebec.
I have (Ford Focus) and it was a POS. The transmission was boggy and the engine was loud and coarse. I can't believe they sold this car in Europe a few years ago. All recent Fords i have driven have been crap. Very disappointing considering the US is/was the leader in technology and invented the auto assembly line. Live and die bye the Truck I guess.
Who the hell knew that the IEA hadn't EVER taken supply into account?
"The decision to rigorously survey supply -- instead of just demand, as in the past -- reflects an increasing fear within the agency and elsewhere that oil-producing regions aren't on track to meet future needs."
I have to admit to chuckling a bit when I filled up my hybrid yesterday. The ground was littered with receipts of $84 and up. The attendant and I chatted about gas prices while the folks filling the Canyoneros surrounding me stayed very quiet.
Up high in the WSJ piece is the notion that oil companies have underinvested in exploration and development. Yeah, so we've heard. With prices where they are now, surely that will change, but in the medium term, the claim is that supply will be constrained.
That very likely means growth will be impaired globally, prices remain high - all the stuff anybody here could guess. The interesting thing will be seeing how we adapt. Conservation and coal?
How are we to escape: runaway inflation, skyrocketing energy prices (Peak Oil, etc.), a collapsing economy, etc. Every round of problems brings another round of plant closures, reduced production, and lost jobs... leading to more problems. The cycle feeds upon itself, and all our leaders can do is send out tiny vote-buying checks and tell us "all is well!"
Looks like Depression time, or at least a LONG, grinding Recession that will redefine "normal" as something far less than what we've been used to during the years of excess.
Can someone who actually owns a hybrid please comment if it's actually worth buying one?
Try to be objective - if you had to decide again whether or not to buy one, would you ABSOLUTELY do it again, or just MAYBE do it again, or probably NOT do it again?
How do the numbers work out including cost, tax rebates, and fuel economy?
I've had a full sized chevy pickup for about 10 years now. The other day my brothers were complaining about pickups and SUVs. About how they were so unnecessary. Bla Bla Bla. Not that I dont disagree with them.
I compaired how much gas I use vs them. They were shocked to hear I spend less than $100/mo on gas. They all spend more. The reason is I don't drive nearly as much as they do. I have about 35,000 miles which equates to about 3,500/yr. Their cars are under 5 years old and have over 100,000 miles. They drive a lot more than I do. They make a lot of unnecessary trips. I drive to work and back and once a week drive to the grocery store. The bottom line is they waste way more gas than I do.
The kicker was when one of them asked to borrow my truck so he could pick up something so he didn't have to pay for delivery. It turns out, based on my estimate, i'll have to spend over $50 in gas so he can save a $40 delivery fee.
In my opinion, having people work close to home and reduce unnecessary trips will do a lot more for the price of gas than reducing SUVs. Although both would help.
Ford and the rest of society should have been doing a slow transition to increased energy efficiency for the past 20 years. We could have done it on our own terms. Now we have to scramble to do it based on the vagaries of the supply and demand for oil.
No matter how energy efficient they make cars, I can't imagine trading my bicycles for one.
We've had out Honda Civic Hybrid since 2004. We've driven it through Alaska winters of -40 degrees, through the Mojave, down the Alcan 4 times and never had a problem.
No one gets my hybrid! We have 110k miles on it now and it runs smoothly. My biggest complaint is that the temperature controls aim to reach a certain degree rather than letting the drver choose the exact temperature of air blowing.
And yes, when we need a new vehicle it will be a hybrid.
(I need to go visit the folks and mom's new hip- be back later today.)
"In my opinion, having people work close to home and reduce unnecessary trips will do a lot more for the price of gas than reducing SUVs. Although both would help."
Funny, this is how things used to be, back before the Housing Bubble resulted in insane overdevelopment of oversized and overpriced houses so people had to live 50-miles away from work to be able to "afford" a McMansion on a teaser loan. Oh, and back before all this idiocy, we actually HAD jobs to drive to; now, they've been outsourced, insourced (illegals), or are just plain gone. Good thing the unemployment numbers don't reflect this!
Yep, Amerika has really done a number on itself this time!
They ran this company into the ground years ago. It's so nice to drive on the roads without the SUV's now breathing down the backs of those who drive smaller more efficient vehicles.
Seems the current state of Corporations these days is for the CEO's to be AWOL--off playing bridge, while things go to pot.
How come the Japanese have a better clue that American auto makers?
Cooking ramen in my percolator | 05.22.08 - 9:39 am | #
Ever been to a Japanese factory, even here in the states? Amazing.
Plus their companies are run by people who understand making cars and not run by people who understand making deals. Completely different skill set. US companies make great deals until the deal requires some one actually making product.
I was in Japanese plants earlier this week with a person who hadn't been in one before - the factory was cleaner than her home. The training they put into workers is amazing (compared to US mfgrs).
The difference is philosophical - where the emphasis is placed. Ford, GM, place it at the boardroom-stockholder level. Japanese place it at the customer & factory floor level - do that well and the the stock will take care of itself. But don't expect huge returns - Japanese stocks behave more like annuities & bonds than our go-go rah-rah stock markets.
I mean for all you folks out there saying how great your Toyota or Honda is - how many of you own their stock?
Japan is different - that's why I keep having hissy fits whenever I hear somebody say 'we are becoming Japan' - for good and bad, it ain't happenin'.
Ironically, this morning my Honda Civic was sideswiped by a Ford F-250 Superduty pickup truck. I'm afraid the insurance company is going to total my 1996 Honda. By contrast, the Superduty only got a few scratches, and it's on the road guzzling gas and prowling for more little cars.
Let's face it. All auto manufacturers and consumers got caught with their pants down.
Gas prices have doubled in 3 years. Almost 30 percent in the past 6 months!
Even with computer aided design and testing and other technologies which help speed up the from the drawing board to the showroom design times....adaptation takes longer than it takes for specs to bid up oil prices. From the consumer side...getting rid of an upside down SUV may not be financially advisable unless gas goes to the moon.
So we all wait and hope that the bubble crashes sooner rather than later. I don't think that these high prices will fade from memory too quickly. The age of the Canyonero have passed...at least for this generation anyway.
Wow, we ran out of oil and it got expensive. Hoocodanode?
I agree with the comment above about deal making. For those unfamiliar with corporate management in the US, salesmanship skills replaced operational know how about thirty years ago. It's the reason why we can't make a good car, why CEOs are paid so much for such poor performance, and oh, yeah, why nobody ever listened to people like Tanta for the past few years.
The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world's top 400 oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought.
I'm finishing up call reports now & getting ready to leave on a quickie visit to another auto supplier tomorrow before the long weekend - so haven't read all the comments.
HOWEVER I will add one thing: the report that Ford is cutting back production is NOT a terrible thing - at least not viewed as terrible from this semi-insider's POV. NOT cutting back in face of declining demand would be the disaster.
What the domestics need to do is rebalance their fixed vs variable cost structure so they are still profitable at lower builds. This will certainly mean additional lay offs (some have already occurred). Most of those lay offs need to happen on the 'fixed cost side' - white collar types. That is how you rebalance variable & fixed cost... that and close offices & plants.
As for large vs small vehicles - the really sharp companies have a profitable balance (see Toyota - anyone here ever drove a full size Land Cruiser or Tundra? They aren't toys). Detroit has no mix, they are one trick ponies and their one trick is out of favor right now.
These are salvageable businesses but they have to recommit to the customer & production focus NOT to Wall Street & deal making. Until that happens they are accidents waiting to happen.
Why exactly is the entire fianncial complex up. UBS does a deal at a 30% discount to market and the brokers are sells (thank for the heads up Dick) but the entire complex is up. here we go again..
As for large vs small vehicles - the really sharp companies have a profitable balance (see Toyota - anyone here ever drove a full size Land Cruiser or Tundra? They aren't toys). Detroit has no mix, they are one trick ponies and their one trick is out of favor right now.
This shows the massive corporate governance failure in this country. Like the mortgage industry, this scenario was perfectly predictable yet none of the major corporations did anything significant to prepare for it. It was far easier to rake in short term profit using a blatantly unsustainable business model, and treat any news about clouds on the horizon as simply a PR problem.
I'd assume at this point that GM, Ford, and Chrysler are simply dead men walking and their production capacity will hopefully be taken over by a more adaptable and efficient host.
These are salvageable businesses but they have to recommit to the customer & production focus NOT to Wall Street & deal making. Until that happens they are accidents waiting to happen.
Dryfly, that is true of so many corporations today.
All of the US automakers also have European divisions which have been making smaller, more efficient cars over there for many years. What's keeping them from making the modifications necessary to comply with US standards (which certainly has to be less than doing any design and retool from the ground up) and producing and selling them here?
nanya writes:
Can someone who actually owns a hybrid please comment if it's actually worth buying one?
Try to be objective - if you had to decide again whether or not to buy one, would you ABSOLUTELY do it again, or just MAYBE do it again, or probably NOT do it again?
How do the numbers work out including cost, tax rebates, and fuel economy?
What about service - any problems with it yet?
nanya | 05.22.08 - 9:58 am | #
The question you have to ask first is: what is your driving profile?
Miles per year?
Ratio of urban start & stop vs, rural high speed never stop?
Requirements for passengers & cargo?
That kind of thing.
Generally the less you drive the more a hybrid pays off - ESPECIALLY if you can kit it so it plugs in at night.
Also the more start-n-stop you do the more favorable the hybrid is. The 'hybrid function 0f electric motor running only works at slow speeds and while the battery is still charged - once you get up to speed the engine kicks in and the vehicle runs like any other gas powered vehicle - except its carrying a very heavy battery and electric motor besides.
So if you drive mostly highway miles at high speed an efficient gas or diesel powered vehicle would be better. Urban start-n-stop and hybrids really rock.
There aren't many really useful large hybrids yet (for cargo & lotsa passengers) but there will be. Watch for the eventual diesel-hybrids in trucks & SUVs designed for urban use - they are coming.
BTW - both my wife & I drive man transmission turbo charged Jetta diesels - they rock. Drive like sports cars yet get 50 mpg. But we do a lot of highway driving at 70 mph plus. A hybrid is not the answer for us - not until we move into a city (possible but someday not on the immediate radar).
I am a biker - a motorcycle was my first motor vehicle - and I am laughing my a** off at the SUV and truck owners who are getting hammered filling up their pigmobiles. I do have a car - a mid-80s BMW "eta" which gives me a little over 30mpg on the highway - but I stick to the bike as much as possible at >50mpg.
I don't hate trucks inherently - I have had an F150 myself w/ the V8 Triton - a nice motor. There is, without a doubt, a time and proper place for them. I didn't rack up a lot of miles on mine either -
All of the US automakers also have European divisions which have been making smaller, more efficient cars over there for many years. What's keeping them from making the modifications necessary to comply with US standards (which certainly has to be less than doing any design and retool from the ground up) and producing and selling them here?
nearpass | 05.22.08 - 10:45 am | #
I'd buy the European manual tranny diesel version of the Ford Focus in a heartbeat if I could get one here - they aren't even offered due to US pollution control reg interpretations. I attribute a lot of that to Detroit pressuring EPA & wanting to keep European producers out who are VERY STRONG in clean diesel technology - they have enough problems w/the Japanese hybrids.
Hybrid performance is lame compared to modern diesels - euro diesels would become severe economic competition for Detroit overnight.
In fairness there are some additional particulate issues w/ diesels but modern diesels are minimally worse than autos - compare the lower overall emissions (from better overall furl efficiency of diesels) and it comes out a wash.
We'll see more diesels but probably only after Detroit fails.
We don't have "Peak Oil". What we have going on here is peak stupidity emanating form DC and the FED. Bad things happen when a country decides to purposely devalue it's currency to bailout insolvent banks and individuals especially when it is the worlds reserve currency.
Japan is different - that's why I keep having hissy fits whenever I hear somebody say 'we are becoming Japan' - for good and bad, it ain't happenin'.
If only it were looking that good. Right?
I remember working with some guys from Japan a few years back on an automation project. They wouldn't go home at night - they'd literally sleep for a couple of hours at the site and then go right back to work.
If the Chinese have that kind of a work ethic I wonder if the US really stands a chance in the new global decoupled economy.
I did not think Poland had roads? At least not close to what is needed. I believe there are old roads built by the Germans still in use and called "Hitlerstrasses." This was a deliberate result of Soviet policy.
I drive a Ford/Mercury. I don't love it but I got a great deal on it. It is actually a well thought out car with some nice touches. It suffices for what I use it for, almost.
I haven't heard anyone brag about how cool their American car is for a long time. Bitch yes, recommend one, no. This is what is going to kill them. Nobody will buy the gas guzzlers and no one wants the other cars they make.
Oh, we need more comments on how old your car is and how long you have had it please. I love reading how the comments devolve into "Well, my 1953 De Soto has 800,000,000 miles on it and runs on a specially modified cactus juice fuel I devised myself in the woodshed."
BTW - many of the Japanese US transplants have those same work ethics - that's why they locate to Bumfuck & hire ex-farmers... they work that hard too.
And as for the Chinese? They work hard but don't work as 'smart' as the Japanese do. Not a comment on ethnicity or anything - I attribute it to the fact they haven't had their 'Deming Moment' yet - if they do we are so toast.
"We don't have "Peak Oil". What we have going on here is peak stupidity emanating form DC and the FED."
I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with you there -- if we were at PS (Peak Stupidity), supplies of stupidity would be dwindling. I think as it stands there is more than enough stupidity to drive us right into the ground.
And as for the Chinese? They work hard but don't work as 'smart' as the Japanese do. Not a comment on ethnicity or anything - I attribute it to the fact they haven't had their 'Deming Moment' yet - if they do we are so toast.
I think endemic corruption is really going to keep hurting the Chinese the most. At least in the US you don't have to bribe mid-level bureaucrats to get anything done. Our bribery is only at the political levels, where it's easier to deal with in the long run.
I do agree with the other point about a lot of cultural factors at work. Chinese tend to be raised in a very authoritarian environment, which makes teamwork and innovation really difficult for the average worker. We've got the edge on innovation; too bad most of the recent innovation has been made in turning bullshit into money.
I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with you there -- if we were at PS (Peak Stupidity), supplies of stupidity would be dwindling. I think as it stands there is more than enough stupidity to drive us right into the ground.
But just think where we'd be if only we could harness the power of human stupidity? Then we'd truly have a source of energy too cheap to meter... and renewable to boot (more of it born every day!).
The "big three" (and most of the major airlines) will all declare BK before this mess is over. They won't go away, though; they'll just use it to jettison obligations and move forward.
I have thought that replacing a cars braking system with a compressor and a couple air tanks would really cut down on fuel for stop and go drivers. The air tanks would hold compressed air for power assist when the car accelerates and uses the most fuel.
"But just think where we'd be if only we could harness the power of human stupidity? Then we'd truly have a source of energy too cheap to meter... and renewable to boot (more of it born every day!)."
I have been defending my stupidity thusly for years. It powers me through most of the day!
The "big three" (and most of the major airlines) will all declare BK before this mess is over. They won't go away, though; they'll just use it to jettison obligations and move forward.
Agree - they will move on to create more stupidity having learned little.
It is for reasons like that that I wish there was more 'downside' to corporate bankruptcy - a higher hurdle to reorganization and a greater tendency to push them into liquidation. If the managers had as much to fear from BK as did grunt workers and stock & bond holders - they might think a little harder & a little longer before doing some of this stupid stuff.
Thank you for that insight. I was wondering the same thing. Looking back at my car owning history, I have never owned an American car. Mostly German, but also mostly small production stuff like the Passatt Wagon. I just bought a new car last week, a Mazda5, another small production mini mini van. Mazda doesnt even advertise it. They apparently dont need to sell 20 million of them for it to work for them.
My husband has bought all American cars. He had a Dodge Intrepid which we really liked but was discontinued b/c it didnt sell enough units. And so on. I really dont understand why the minimum sales have to be in the 10s of millions for it to work for domestic automakers.
Once again incompetent corporate managers are blaming "the economy" for their failings. Yes, oil has spiked in the last few months, but, my God, it's been going up steadily with very few pauses for 6 years now. And only now, did these Einsteins figure out that people want fuel-efficient cars.
Yes we need shorther commutes, public tarnsit, etc. But just increasing the fleet mpg 50%, which requires no new technology whatsoever would shave 25% off the oil import tally and have a HUGE impact on price.
Ministry of Truth writes:
I have thought that replacing a cars braking system with a compressor and a couple air tanks would really cut down on fuel for stop and go drivers. The air tanks would hold compressed air for power assist when the car accelerates and uses the most fuel.
Ministry of Truth | 05.22.08 - 11:27 am | #
Eaton is all over that already - will roll out in trucks very soon if not out already. I worked on some parts in it (NDA - can't say more).
I remember about 7 years ago when Bill Ford rammed through an $8 Billion special dividend, thinking that it wouldn't be long before it came back to haunt the company. (Of course, it wouldn't haunt the Ford family, now $8B more liquid than they were)
Of course, the Bush - Greenspan monetary spigot policy staved off the day of reckoning for a few extra years, but nothing lasts forever.
Yes we need shorther commutes, public tarnsit, etc. But just increasing the fleet mpg 50%, which requires no new technology whatsoever would shave 25% off the oil import tally and have a HUGE impact on price.
Aheadofthecurve | 05.22.08 - 11:30 am | #
Exactly.
If you double the fuel efficiency of the fleet and half the number of miles driven per person - both doable without hardship considering current fleet & the amount of 'discretionary driving' - you cut oil consumption for personal transport 75%.
Don't need more mechanical engineering PhDs to do that. Duh!
I remember reading in 2005 - and I saved the article (somewhere)! - an interview with the head of GM where he was imploringly asked about why GM offered NO hybrids, not one, even though the technology was 10 years old at that point. He said something soothing about how we have to look realistically at "the situation."
The fact that US automakers did not offer even one token hybrid to the market told me that they deserved their fate. Even now, the hybrids have been introduced first into the SUV lines. Now, that's stupid.
We had the first shot fired over heads during the last oil crisis. Plenty of time to plan & change our ways. Why am I thinking this is deja vu all over again? Corporate management needs a frontal lobotomy.
"Can someone who actually owns a hybrid please comment if it's actually worth buying one?
Try to be objective - if you had to decide again whether or not to buy one, would you ABSOLUTELY do it again, or just MAYBE do it again, or probably NOT do it again?"
Depends on what "worth" means. I have a last-year's Prius and I love it. Maintenance has not been a problem.
There was no economic need for me to have a Prius. We actually drive relatively little; maybe 20-30 in-town miles daily, though with a lot of hill-climbing. With maybe 500 pound passenger load (we're big) we get 43+ mpg daily.
At that rate it'd take a bazillion years to pay off the price difference between the Prius and a regular car. But we bought it for energy security, worst case. If there ever comes a time when gas is actually in short supply -- not just expensive -- we're ready.
It's a wonderful car for in-town and commute driving, where it's at its most efficient compared to gas-powered cars; the gas engine simply turns off when the car stops, even for a few seconds.
Out on the highway it gets 50+ miles per gallon with the AC on. This is comparable to Dryfly's much beloved turbo diesels, but with the advantage of better economy in-town as well.
I would absolutely do it again. As far as whether you should, what's most important? If you spend a lot of time in your car, yes, probably: I'm seeing them more frequently as taxicabs and company cars.
That said, the new Honda hybrids, if the price differential is little, will truly blow most caveats out of the water. Detroit will be toast. They put all their bets on the high-margin no-brainer SUVs, and they've got nothing to fall back on.
"If you double the fuel efficiency of the fleet and half the number of miles driven per person - both doable without hardship considering current fleet & the amount of 'discretionary driving' - you cut oil consumption for personal transport 75%."
The first is a piece of cake. The second is tougher. It's amazing how resistant people are-my wife teaches at a school about 25 miles away. There are quite a few other teachers who live in a 2-3 mile radius of us. She organized a car pool last year; after about a month the others dropped out. If gas is near $5 this fall, it might be worth revisiting.
My inlaws bought a Prius in October 2006 and absolutely love it.
You have to accept that you're paying a little extra to do the right thing . . . though they're starting to get a karmic payback on that, with the massive increase in gas prices.
Do you think the European-style diesels will be available in the US soon? We were living in Europe last year and couldn't believe the variety available. The big dilemma in our house is whether to sell our Toyota Sienna now or wait until there are more fuel efficient options on the market. We don't need the van anymore and are looking for something small. The Jetta sounds great.
Bob Lutz will be the downfall of GM.....
As soon as Wagoner was appointed CEO that signaled the end of any chance they had of competing with.....anyone.
The first is a piece of cake. The second is tougher. It's amazing how resistant people are-my wife teaches at a school about 25 miles away. There are quite a few other teachers who live in a 2-3 mile radius of us. She organized a car pool last year; after about a month the others dropped out. If gas is near $5 this fall, it might be worth revisiting.
Aheadofthecurve | 05.22.08 - 12:04 pm | #
Actually what you are telling me says the miles drived reduction will be easier than you thing - move closer to work AND do fewer one item discretionary trips.
If you had said everyone you know lives close to work & they have already cut back on trips then a 50% reduction would be difficult. What you describe tells me there is a lot of low hanging fruit - just need the will to execute it $5 plus per gallon can instill some will power.
BTW - my wife drives 50 mile each way but in a 50 mpg vehicle it isn't terrible - so far. We are looking to relocate closer to her job after our last child graduates next year. Or she will look for other work locally. Depends on which makes more sense at the time.
There is a lot of low hanging fruit out there. Won't be one solution rather a 'fruit salad' approach.
For once we get to see some real capitalism. How refreshing. Don't make products people need or want? ... you get to make room and provide cheap start-up materials for the next competitor.
I bought a Ford in 1991, ran for 12 years. Great car, got 27/31 and had excellent pickup. 12 years later, they hadn't topped it (in fact they had backslid), so I bought a Toyota.
No one put a gun to FMC's head and forced them not make truly efficient commuter cars that they could be selling easily now. And while they were not making them, they were mocking them. Sayonara to them
You have to accept that you're paying a little extra to do the right thing . . . though they're starting to get a karmic payback on that, with the massive increase in gas prices.
I once saw a cartoon that I have not been able to find again. It shows a couple standing around their kitchen table looking at the bills and the man says: "So, we didn't throw a party when gas reached $3 a gallon, and we didn't throw one when gas reached $4 a gallon, but we definitely should throw one when it hits $5" and the caption reads: "How to tell a prius owner."
Maybe I should just redraw it... I'm thinking of using it for the cover of a party invitation
I'm not sure that hybrids right now are actually worth the extra $ to do the "right thing" when you consider that there are other options out there. Even just with gasoline burning cars. I love my Echo; my 2002 Echo is just short of getting the same gas mileage of a 2002 Prius, and for about $8K CDN cheaper.
As I drive about 600km/month, even if I get an extra 10km/l (I get between 18-19km/l) and gas hits $4/l (currently is ~$1.26) that would still be almost 14 years to save any money. When one considers that the 2002 prius gets about 20km/l (I.E. 1-2km/l better; not 10) it's simply a question of whether one buys lottery tickets and/or designer clothes/handbags/watches.
dryfly-Moving is expensive and disruptive and there may be many reasons why people don't want to. Car-pooling, one would think is easy, so I was surprised the others weren't interested. By the way, my wife says she doesn't hear complaints about gas prices in the staff room (and these are teachers not CEOs). I have read that even today, gas consumes a smaller % of family income than it did in 1982. If so, maybe prices have to go still higher!
RE: the prius, people should consider the lifespan of the battery pack, its environmental impact, and the potential secondary cost effects over on the inputs for its productive capital.
The part where the diesel beats it is the part where the diesel engine will still be running when the car around it has fallen to pieces. I haven't really looked at the Prius end to end, but I have to wonder if it's really more efficient or just more efficient from the current perspective of the end user.
Do you think the European-style diesels will be available in the US soon? We were living in Europe last year and couldn't believe the variety available. - Berylmarkham
They are coming... How soon? Don't know. I'm looking at the 08 Jetta's now - need to make a little more money before I turn in my 04 though. The diesels run riduculous number of miles - I have 150K on my 04... my wife has almost that much on her 03 - neither has had major maint.
And 'yes' we all drive a lot out here in flat land. At least I'm not driving my truck... plus I do more work over the net than I ever dreamed I'd do when gas was ~$2/gal.
Berylmarkham: Do those diesels meet air quality regs, especially in CA? - AOTC
For the most part 'yes'. With the cleaner low sulfur fuels & particulate traps pretty much 'yes' - or close to CA standards.
CA standards are pretty much BS - want everyone to go to electric cars so then we end up with coal power plants out in the desert sending acid & C02 & particulates east - but Cali Birkie wearers get to feel all superior while lakes die in Appalachia, NE & Canada. Nice.
As far as diesels in general - old models were real smokers - Europeans worked most of the bugs out of those long ago.
I haven't really looked at the Prius end to end, but I have to wonder if it's really more efficient or just more efficient from the current perspective of the end user.
Urban start-n-stop commuter type driving the Prius rocks. Over the road long haul it sucks compared to diesel. Simple analysis there but pretty much right on.
dryfly-Moving is expensive and disruptive and there may be many reasons why people don't want to.
They won't want to drive small cars or eat a more 'local less energy dependent diet' either - but they will - or some mix of it all. Eventually.
Again think low hanging fruit & fruit salad - not one mandated solution. That is the power of price signals vs regulation - lets you find the solution that works best for you... but price signals drive & enforce those changes better than any regulation ever could. believe me - I feel it as I drive around NAFTA Zone paying current fuel prices!
I think the gas mileage is obvious, but I haven't seen any discussion on brake replacement costs about the SUV. These things are heavy; people have to be eating up those brake pads.
A subcompact will get you about as good of mileage and often better on the highway than a hybrid. It is the same reason Honda dropped the Accord Hybrid. If I remember right, the Toyota Highlander laid an egg when it was originally released. Going by vehicles with similar weights, it seems the hybrid can improve urban gas mileage by about 50% and you lose 10% on the highway. This is well and good except you are paying a significant premium. With the Highlander that is $5000. You need to be putting on a lot of urban miles to justify that. What the Prius has done has been to make a vehicle smaller than the Corolla fashionable.
As for Ford, they aren't in the worst shape in the world. The Focus is due for a redesign. The 500 is a better Taurus and will represent the mid-sized segment better for them now that it will be called a Taurus. The advantage of the F-Series is than it hasn't tended to be a vanity truck, so there is a real commerical base with farmers and what not there. How they hold up against the Tundra in that segment will determine how much pain they feel.
NoVa writes:
I did not think Poland had roads? At least not close to what is needed. I believe there are old roads built by the Germans still in use and called "Hitlerstrasses." This was a deliberate result of Soviet policy.
What the Prius has done has been to make a vehicle smaller than the Corolla fashionable.
Corollas must be a lot bigger than they used to be, but i haven't car shopped in a while, so I haven't seen inside one. I can load 10 foot long 2x6s diagonally into our prius at homedepot and still have six inches to spare. (no front seat passenger, obviously.) And the interior space is almost that of a camry for passengers, but yes, the premium, without the $3000 in tax breaks we got when we bought ours 4 years ago.
But it has nice unintended consequences and that is cleaner city air at ground level. I bike a lot and I can't stand all the toxic fumes while waiting at a light, especially since as a hybrid owner, I maddeningly know they are unnecessary... as I wait there holding my breath.
I have a truck. It's an old VW Rabbit Pickup with a 1.6 diesel. It's quite "speed challenged", but I can maintain highway speeds & carry quite a lot of stuff in it. It averages 46mpg on the hwy. I don't feel so ridiculous driving it anymore...
It is certainly possible that VW doesn't yet export such cars to the U.S. - domestic demand in Europe is certainly high enough, and the filter systems were definitely a bottleneck in the somewhat recent past..
They export their best here - I own two - its just that Cali regs are the toughest in the world. Like I said above - their intent is to go electric, build a bunch of coal plants in the desert & export their pollution to the rest of NATA Zone and feel smug about it. Well maybe not intentionally but that is the practical effect.
Regardless diesels DO produce more particulates even with the traps & best technology compared to fuel injected gas vehicles but so little that the reduction in OTHER pollutants & CO2 from the reduced fuel usage by diesels MORE than offsets the small (and in modern diesels I mean real small) increase in particulates.
Also most of the particulate production comes at start up (warming up) and due to acceleration. Both more common during start-stop urban driving.
Hybrids are a better answer in cities ASSUMING you can't use public transportation. Diesels make more sense long haul over the road. Pick the right tool to do the job.
M.Z. Forrest
Camry: 189.2 in 21/31 Hybrid (33/34)
Prius: 175 in. 48/45
The ratio of passenger compartment to total length in a Prius is far larger than in a Camry. The hood on the Prius is a short little thing because the engines are side-by-side and the gas one is only a 1.5l and the Camry needs to leave space for a v6.
You will be happy to discover Kenworth and International are delivering hybrid medium duty trucks as we type. At least one of the forestry lift truck makers is using a hybrid chasis to make buckets trucks now. The truck motor kicks on every once in a while to recharge the battery that runs the lift hydralics. Users are reporting up to 25% fuel savings plus it is quieter in residential work sites.
Yes we still have some of the German build roads, in similar shape to the Chicago ones Some random pisc from Warsow 404 - Not Found t=603282
darius | 05.22.08 - 2:03 pm | #
Yes, I posted elsewhere a lot of fotos of old Warshau und I reconized the insurance building that has been around since the 1930's? We were in Krakow last Summer.
Poland looks to be investing a lot of money in infrastructure...EU money?
"RE: the prius, people should consider the lifespan of the battery pack, its environmental impact, and the potential secondary cost effects over on the inputs for its productive capital."
Toyota offers a $200 bounty for every hybrid battery, which gets fully recycled at the end of its lifespan.
-
-
Someone else asked for folks' hybrid experiences. For what it's worth, I bought a used 2002 Toyota Prius last year, and it runs fine. No traditional car can beat a hybrid for Los Angeles traffic. Regular cars burned through gasoline while crawling 2mph through rush hour traffic on the 405. The Prius, on the other hand, cuts its gasoline engine at every opportunity -- when coasting, braking, stopped, or going under 20mph.
If you have to put up with Los Angeles-level traffic, I strongly recommend a hybrid.
my wife and i have a van, a pick up and a 2004 ford focus
i like the focus a lot except for road noise. handles better than my old model 2002 bmw, gets 35 mpg at 65 mph on the interstate and is roomy for a sub compact.
if i jerk it around on city streets millage goes down to 26...65k on it now, and no problems.
well, since gasoline and diesel are heavily taxed in europe, asian gasoline cars with small engines 1.5 can achieve 80kW/109hp wih a very nice consumption.
Yes, I posted elsewhere a lot of fotos of old Warshau und I reconized the insurance building that has been around since the 1930's? We were in Krakow last Summer.
Poland looks to be investing a lot of money in infrastructure...EU money?
Nova | Homepage | 05.22.08 - 8:15 pm | #
I was born and lived in Krakow for 14 years. Poland being in the EU has attracted lots of outside investors. It has also experienced huge real estate run ups as well although the financing was never loose as in the US.
Sorry, but "First".
Welcome to the Consumer goldilocks depression
One more reason why anyone buying equities on the E in forward P/E estimates needs to rethink things
Oil is so high that in Poland I'm abandoning my car and using public transport. In the state, where distances are vast, it's not a option yet. Could they implement a more efficient public transport system ?
A car of 500kg or more to move a person of 100 kg is bad economic. Motobike may be ?
A few years ago Ford had $24 B in cash, they blew through that in losses, they then took out a loan and mortgaged their factories. How are they going to pay off their mortgaged factories and afford to stay in business with gas rising and the recession just starting??
I own several Fords and I hope that they'll still be around for a while...??
What about GM and Chrysler, not much better.
Tony1790
They should drag the Pinto concept out of the mothballs.
What a great car.
Sorry.
Detroit's Nightmare
Detroit's Cold Shoulder
How come the Japanese have a better clue that American auto makers?
Oh, good! At least from now on when I'm driving my sedan, I'll be able to see in front of me beyond the gas guzzling truck or SUV in front of me. It used to be this way, you know. But then it became fashionable to drive BIG and TALL.
Here in Canada we are paying $5 per gallon for regular gas (higher gas taxes). It is a study in pain to watch owners of SUVs and pickups standing by their vehicle and filling, filling, filling. I pull in with my 600 cc Honda motorcycle. $15 dollars later I have a full tank and pull away with the SUV/pickup people still pumping and more than $80 showing on the dials. Ouch! With oil selling at double what it was a year ago, gas prices are going a lot higher this summer. So my next venture is a Lithium Ion electric motor assist Trek bicycle. The electric system is made by Bionx in Quebec.
first car NOT!
Have you driven a Ford lately?
I have (Ford Focus) and it was a POS. The transmission was boggy and the engine was loud and coarse. I can't believe they sold this car in Europe a few years ago. All recent Fords i have driven have been crap. Very disappointing considering the US is/was the leader in technology and invented the auto assembly line. Live and die bye the Truck I guess.
Tim:
Did you ever have the opportunity to drive a Pinto? Automotive engineering at its finest.
They don't build them like that anymore.
Neuf,
You have a motorbike, aye. I am looking at that trek bike with the "automatic" transmission its a good deal around 500 USD.
Who the hell knew that the IEA hadn't EVER taken supply into account?
"The decision to rigorously survey supply -- instead of just demand, as in the past -- reflects an increasing fear within the agency and elsewhere that oil-producing regions aren't on track to meet future needs."
Link: Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch - WSJ.com
Everybody's dumping on SUVs. I have a Chevy Equinox, which is an SUV not much bigger than most cars. It's a lot smaller than a Trailblazer.
Last week, I parked in a garage for 3 hours in Greenwich Village and it costs $48. That included an $8 SUV surcharge.
Very greedy country. SUV owners are trapped. Nobody feels our pain.
I have to admit to chuckling a bit when I filled up my hybrid yesterday. The ground was littered with receipts of $84 and up. The attendant and I chatted about gas prices while the folks filling the Canyoneros surrounding me stayed very quiet.
Yeah, I was right.
Sandb,
Up high in the WSJ piece is the notion that oil companies have underinvested in exploration and development. Yeah, so we've heard. With prices where they are now, surely that will change, but in the medium term, the claim is that supply will be constrained.
That very likely means growth will be impaired globally, prices remain high - all the stuff anybody here could guess. The interesting thing will be seeing how we adapt. Conservation and coal?
Rich-
Why should anyone feel your pain?
5F10 Canyonero
Can you name the truck with four wheel drive,
smells like a steak and seats thirty-five..
Canyonero! Canyonero!
Well, it goes real slow with the hammer down,
It's the country-fried truck endorsed by a clown!
Canyonero! (Yah!) Canyonero!
[Krusty:] Hey Hey
The Federal Highway comission has ruled the
Canyonero unsafe for highway or city driving.
Canyonero!
12 yards long, 2 lanes wide,
65 tons of American Pride!
Canyonero! Canyonero!
Top of the line in utility sports,
Unexplained fires are a matter for the courts!
Canyonero! Canyonero! (Yah!)
She blinds everybody with her super high beams,
She's a squirrel crushing, deer smacking, driving machine!
Canyonero!-oh woah, Canyonero! (Yah!)
Drive Canyonero!
Woah Canyonero!
Woah!
Toast... the economy is toast, or soon will be.
How are we to escape: runaway inflation, skyrocketing energy prices (Peak Oil, etc.), a collapsing economy, etc. Every round of problems brings another round of plant closures, reduced production, and lost jobs... leading to more problems. The cycle feeds upon itself, and all our leaders can do is send out tiny vote-buying checks and tell us "all is well!"
Looks like Depression time, or at least a LONG, grinding Recession that will redefine "normal" as something far less than what we've been used to during the years of excess.
Can someone who actually owns a hybrid please comment if it's actually worth buying one?
Try to be objective - if you had to decide again whether or not to buy one, would you ABSOLUTELY do it again, or just MAYBE do it again, or probably NOT do it again?
How do the numbers work out including cost, tax rebates, and fuel economy?
What about service - any problems with it yet?
I've had a full sized chevy pickup for about 10 years now. The other day my brothers were complaining about pickups and SUVs. About how they were so unnecessary. Bla Bla Bla. Not that I dont disagree with them.
I compaired how much gas I use vs them. They were shocked to hear I spend less than $100/mo on gas. They all spend more. The reason is I don't drive nearly as much as they do. I have about 35,000 miles which equates to about 3,500/yr. Their cars are under 5 years old and have over 100,000 miles. They drive a lot more than I do. They make a lot of unnecessary trips. I drive to work and back and once a week drive to the grocery store. The bottom line is they waste way more gas than I do.
The kicker was when one of them asked to borrow my truck so he could pick up something so he didn't have to pay for delivery. It turns out, based on my estimate, i'll have to spend over $50 in gas so he can save a $40 delivery fee.
In my opinion, having people work close to home and reduce unnecessary trips will do a lot more for the price of gas than reducing SUVs. Although both would help.
rich - "have a Chevy Equinox, which is an SUV"
uhhh, afraid the classification for that vehicle is crossover. It's a 21st century station wagon.
Ford and the rest of society should have been doing a slow transition to increased energy efficiency for the past 20 years. We could have done it on our own terms. Now we have to scramble to do it based on the vagaries of the supply and demand for oil.
No matter how energy efficient they make cars, I can't imagine trading my bicycles for one.
We've had out Honda Civic Hybrid since 2004. We've driven it through Alaska winters of -40 degrees, through the Mojave, down the Alcan 4 times and never had a problem.
No one gets my hybrid! We have 110k miles on it now and it runs smoothly. My biggest complaint is that the temperature controls aim to reach a certain degree rather than letting the drver choose the exact temperature of air blowing.
And yes, when we need a new vehicle it will be a hybrid.
(I need to go visit the folks and mom's new hip- be back later today.)
Isn't this more positive news?
The auto industry's problems are nothing a crash program to develop the hydrogen infrastructure of the nation could not easily solve.
"In my opinion, having people work close to home and reduce unnecessary trips will do a lot more for the price of gas than reducing SUVs. Although both would help."
Funny, this is how things used to be, back before the Housing Bubble resulted in insane overdevelopment of oversized and overpriced houses so people had to live 50-miles away from work to be able to "afford" a McMansion on a teaser loan. Oh, and back before all this idiocy, we actually HAD jobs to drive to; now, they've been outsourced, insourced (illegals), or are just plain gone. Good thing the unemployment numbers don't reflect this!
Yep, Amerika has really done a number on itself this time!
CR wrote: "It just keeps getting worse for the auto industry." Perhaps it would be better stated: "the domestic auto industry."
They ran this company into the ground years ago. It's so nice to drive on the roads without the SUV's now breathing down the backs of those who drive smaller more efficient vehicles.
Seems the current state of Corporations these days is for the CEO's to be AWOL--off playing bridge, while things go to pot.
WHAT TO DO?
How come the Japanese have a better clue that American auto makers?
Cooking ramen in my percolator | 05.22.08 - 9:39 am | #
Ever been to a Japanese factory, even here in the states? Amazing.
Plus their companies are run by people who understand making cars and not run by people who understand making deals. Completely different skill set. US companies make great deals until the deal requires some one actually making product.
I was in Japanese plants earlier this week with a person who hadn't been in one before - the factory was cleaner than her home. The training they put into workers is amazing (compared to US mfgrs).
The difference is philosophical - where the emphasis is placed. Ford, GM, place it at the boardroom-stockholder level. Japanese place it at the customer & factory floor level - do that well and the the stock will take care of itself. But don't expect huge returns - Japanese stocks behave more like annuities & bonds than our go-go rah-rah stock markets.
I mean for all you folks out there saying how great your Toyota or Honda is - how many of you own their stock?
Japan is different - that's why I keep having hissy fits whenever I hear somebody say 'we are becoming Japan' - for good and bad, it ain't happenin'.
Ironically, this morning my Honda Civic was sideswiped by a Ford F-250 Superduty pickup truck. I'm afraid the insurance company is going to total my 1996 Honda. By contrast, the Superduty only got a few scratches, and it's on the road guzzling gas and prowling for more little cars.
"guzzling gas and prowling for more little cars."
Sorry for your loss...thanks for the laugh.
Let's face it. All auto manufacturers and consumers got caught with their pants down.
Gas prices have doubled in 3 years. Almost 30 percent in the past 6 months!
Even with computer aided design and testing and other technologies which help speed up the from the drawing board to the showroom design times....adaptation takes longer than it takes for specs to bid up oil prices. From the consumer side...getting rid of an upside down SUV may not be financially advisable unless gas goes to the moon.
So we all wait and hope that the bubble crashes sooner rather than later. I don't think that these high prices will fade from memory too quickly. The age of the Canyonero have passed...at least for this generation anyway.
Wow, we ran out of oil and it got expensive. Hoocodanode?
I agree with the comment above about deal making. For those unfamiliar with corporate management in the US, salesmanship skills replaced operational know how about thirty years ago. It's the reason why we can't make a good car, why CEOs are paid so much for such poor performance, and oh, yeah, why nobody ever listened to people like Tanta for the past few years.
Not sure if a repost, from today's WSJ online:
Energy Watchdog Warns
Of Oil-Production Crunch
IEA Official Says Supplies
May Plateau Below
Expected Demand
By NEIL KING JR. and PETER FRITSCH
May 22, 2008; Page A1
The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world's top 400 oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought.
[snip]
I'm finishing up call reports now & getting ready to leave on a quickie visit to another auto supplier tomorrow before the long weekend - so haven't read all the comments.
HOWEVER I will add one thing: the report that Ford is cutting back production is NOT a terrible thing - at least not viewed as terrible from this semi-insider's POV. NOT cutting back in face of declining demand would be the disaster.
What the domestics need to do is rebalance their fixed vs variable cost structure so they are still profitable at lower builds. This will certainly mean additional lay offs (some have already occurred). Most of those lay offs need to happen on the 'fixed cost side' - white collar types. That is how you rebalance variable & fixed cost... that and close offices & plants.
As for large vs small vehicles - the really sharp companies have a profitable balance (see Toyota - anyone here ever drove a full size Land Cruiser or Tundra? They aren't toys). Detroit has no mix, they are one trick ponies and their one trick is out of favor right now.
These are salvageable businesses but they have to recommit to the customer & production focus NOT to Wall Street & deal making. Until that happens they are accidents waiting to happen.
Nice Yen easy money blast attack this morning.
Surprisingly little effect... so far.
The crime spree never ends.
Why exactly is the entire fianncial complex up. UBS does a deal at a 30% discount to market and the brokers are sells (thank for the heads up Dick) but the entire complex is up. here we go again..
BTW probably better to look at the 1 day for the Yen.
The upshot:
Through April, U.S. sales of subcompact cars shot up 33 percent, while sales of large SUVs were down 29 percent, according to Autodata Inc.
It's about time!
As for large vs small vehicles - the really sharp companies have a profitable balance (see Toyota - anyone here ever drove a full size Land Cruiser or Tundra? They aren't toys). Detroit has no mix, they are one trick ponies and their one trick is out of favor right now.
This shows the massive corporate governance failure in this country. Like the mortgage industry, this scenario was perfectly predictable yet none of the major corporations did anything significant to prepare for it. It was far easier to rake in short term profit using a blatantly unsustainable business model, and treat any news about clouds on the horizon as simply a PR problem.
I'd assume at this point that GM, Ford, and Chrysler are simply dead men walking and their production capacity will hopefully be taken over by a more adaptable and efficient host.
The upshot:
Through April, U.S. sales of subcompact cars shot up 33 percent, while sales of large SUVs were down 29 percent, according to Autodata Inc.
It's about time!
Ahh... brings back memories of the family Cadillac getting swapped out for a bright red Toyota Corolla around 1980 or so.
apan is different - that's why I keep having hissy fits whenever I hear somebody say 'we are becoming Japan' - for good and bad, it ain't happenin'.
Yes, dryfly is right. The US has gone to the territory no one has gone before, like the Star Trak slogan.
Or like USSR default after Afghan war ? Only USA is $13 trillion economy ? Too big to fail.
These are salvageable businesses but they have to recommit to the customer & production focus NOT to Wall Street & deal making. Until that happens they are accidents waiting to happen.
Dryfly, that is true of so many corporations today.
All of the US automakers also have European divisions which have been making smaller, more efficient cars over there for many years. What's keeping them from making the modifications necessary to comply with US standards (which certainly has to be less than doing any design and retool from the ground up) and producing and selling them here?
Strategically our dependence on auto centric and oil hungry transportation in this country is our Maginot Line.
We are stubborn!
nanya writes:
Can someone who actually owns a hybrid please comment if it's actually worth buying one?
Try to be objective - if you had to decide again whether or not to buy one, would you ABSOLUTELY do it again, or just MAYBE do it again, or probably NOT do it again?
How do the numbers work out including cost, tax rebates, and fuel economy?
What about service - any problems with it yet?
nanya | 05.22.08 - 9:58 am | #
The question you have to ask first is: what is your driving profile?
Miles per year?
Ratio of urban start & stop vs, rural high speed never stop?
Requirements for passengers & cargo?
That kind of thing.
Generally the less you drive the more a hybrid pays off - ESPECIALLY if you can kit it so it plugs in at night.
Also the more start-n-stop you do the more favorable the hybrid is. The 'hybrid function 0f electric motor running only works at slow speeds and while the battery is still charged - once you get up to speed the engine kicks in and the vehicle runs like any other gas powered vehicle - except its carrying a very heavy battery and electric motor besides.
So if you drive mostly highway miles at high speed an efficient gas or diesel powered vehicle would be better. Urban start-n-stop and hybrids really rock.
There aren't many really useful large hybrids yet (for cargo & lotsa passengers) but there will be. Watch for the eventual diesel-hybrids in trucks & SUVs designed for urban use - they are coming.
BTW - both my wife & I drive man transmission turbo charged Jetta diesels - they rock. Drive like sports cars yet get 50 mpg. But we do a lot of highway driving at 70 mph plus. A hybrid is not the answer for us - not until we move into a city (possible but someday not on the immediate radar).
Way OT...
I am a biker - a motorcycle was my first motor vehicle - and I am laughing my a** off at the SUV and truck owners who are getting hammered filling up their pigmobiles. I do have a car - a mid-80s BMW "eta" which gives me a little over 30mpg on the highway - but I stick to the bike as much as possible at >50mpg.
I don't hate trucks inherently - I have had an F150 myself w/ the V8 Triton - a nice motor. There is, without a doubt, a time and proper place for them. I didn't rack up a lot of miles on mine either -
All of the US automakers also have European divisions which have been making smaller, more efficient cars over there for many years. What's keeping them from making the modifications necessary to comply with US standards (which certainly has to be less than doing any design and retool from the ground up) and producing and selling them here?
nearpass | 05.22.08 - 10:45 am | #
I'd buy the European manual tranny diesel version of the Ford Focus in a heartbeat if I could get one here - they aren't even offered due to US pollution control reg interpretations. I attribute a lot of that to Detroit pressuring EPA & wanting to keep European producers out who are VERY STRONG in clean diesel technology - they have enough problems w/the Japanese hybrids.
Hybrid performance is lame compared to modern diesels - euro diesels would become severe economic competition for Detroit overnight.
In fairness there are some additional particulate issues w/ diesels but modern diesels are minimally worse than autos - compare the lower overall emissions (from better overall furl efficiency of diesels) and it comes out a wash.
We'll see more diesels but probably only after Detroit fails.
We don't have "Peak Oil". What we have going on here is peak stupidity emanating form DC and the FED. Bad things happen when a country decides to purposely devalue it's currency to bailout insolvent banks and individuals especially when it is the worlds reserve currency.
Japan is different - that's why I keep having hissy fits whenever I hear somebody say 'we are becoming Japan' - for good and bad, it ain't happenin'.
If only it were looking that good. Right?
I remember working with some guys from Japan a few years back on an automation project. They wouldn't go home at night - they'd literally sleep for a couple of hours at the site and then go right back to work.
If the Chinese have that kind of a work ethic I wonder if the US really stands a chance in the new global decoupled economy.
Anyone else live in the Phoenix area, and want a 28% return on investment while using less energy?
Install a solar water heater.
I did not think Poland had roads? At least not close to what is needed. I believe there are old roads built by the Germans still in use and called "Hitlerstrasses." This was a deliberate result of Soviet policy.
I drive a Ford/Mercury. I don't love it but I got a great deal on it. It is actually a well thought out car with some nice touches. It suffices for what I use it for, almost.
I haven't heard anyone brag about how cool their American car is for a long time. Bitch yes, recommend one, no. This is what is going to kill them. Nobody will buy the gas guzzlers and no one wants the other cars they make.
Oh, we need more comments on how old your car is and how long you have had it please. I love reading how the comments devolve into "Well, my 1953 De Soto has 800,000,000 miles on it and runs on a specially modified cactus juice fuel I devised myself in the woodshed."
Recession? What recession?
Give me one of these...
OneCAT Compressed Air Vehicle
Right now. Enough of those on the highway would change the calculus of the oil problem.
There are prototypes in various sizes and shapes.
If only it were looking that good. Right?
Exactly.
BTW - many of the Japanese US transplants have those same work ethics - that's why they locate to Bumfuck & hire ex-farmers... they work that hard too.
And as for the Chinese? They work hard but don't work as 'smart' as the Japanese do. Not a comment on ethnicity or anything - I attribute it to the fact they haven't had their 'Deming Moment
' yet - if they do we are so toast.
"We don't have "Peak Oil". What we have going on here is peak stupidity emanating form DC and the FED."
I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with you there -- if we were at PS (Peak Stupidity), supplies of stupidity would be dwindling. I think as it stands there is more than enough stupidity to drive us right into the ground.
And as for the Chinese? They work hard but don't work as 'smart' as the Japanese do. Not a comment on ethnicity or anything - I attribute it to the fact they haven't had their 'Deming Moment' yet - if they do we are so toast.
I think endemic corruption is really going to keep hurting the Chinese the most. At least in the US you don't have to bribe mid-level bureaucrats to get anything done. Our bribery is only at the political levels, where it's easier to deal with in the long run.
I do agree with the other point about a lot of cultural factors at work. Chinese tend to be raised in a very authoritarian environment, which makes teamwork and innovation really difficult for the average worker. We've got the edge on innovation; too bad most of the recent innovation has been made in turning bullshit into money.
I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with you there -- if we were at PS (Peak Stupidity), supplies of stupidity would be dwindling. I think as it stands there is more than enough stupidity to drive us right into the ground.
But just think where we'd be if only we could harness the power of human stupidity? Then we'd truly have a source of energy too cheap to meter... and renewable to boot (more of it born every day!).
There is an Onion article in there somewhere.
The "big three" (and most of the major airlines) will all declare BK before this mess is over. They won't go away, though; they'll just use it to jettison obligations and move forward.
I have thought that replacing a cars braking system with a compressor and a couple air tanks would really cut down on fuel for stop and go drivers. The air tanks would hold compressed air for power assist when the car accelerates and uses the most fuel.
But just think where we'd be if only we could harness the power of human stupidity?
Maybe someday we'll have e^CDO, Level 5, or HSBS (human stupidity backed securities).
"But just think where we'd be if only we could harness the power of human stupidity? Then we'd truly have a source of energy too cheap to meter... and renewable to boot (more of it born every day!)."
I have been defending my stupidity thusly for years. It powers me through most of the day!
The "big three" (and most of the major airlines) will all declare BK before this mess is over. They won't go away, though; they'll just use it to jettison obligations and move forward.
Agree - they will move on to create more stupidity having learned little.
It is for reasons like that that I wish there was more 'downside' to corporate bankruptcy - a higher hurdle to reorganization and a greater tendency to push them into liquidation. If the managers had as much to fear from BK as did grunt workers and stock & bond holders - they might think a little harder & a little longer before doing some of this stupid stuff.
Thank you for that insight. I was wondering the same thing. Looking back at my car owning history, I have never owned an American car. Mostly German, but also mostly small production stuff like the Passatt Wagon. I just bought a new car last week, a Mazda5, another small production mini mini van. Mazda doesnt even advertise it. They apparently dont need to sell 20 million of them for it to work for them.
My husband has bought all American cars. He had a Dodge Intrepid which we really liked but was discontinued b/c it didnt sell enough units. And so on. I really dont understand why the minimum sales have to be in the 10s of millions for it to work for domestic automakers.
Once again incompetent corporate managers are blaming "the economy" for their failings. Yes, oil has spiked in the last few months, but, my God, it's been going up steadily with very few pauses for 6 years now. And only now, did these Einsteins figure out that people want fuel-efficient cars.
Yes we need shorther commutes, public tarnsit, etc. But just increasing the fleet mpg 50%, which requires no new technology whatsoever would shave 25% off the oil import tally and have a HUGE impact on price.
Ministry of Truth writes:
I have thought that replacing a cars braking system with a compressor and a couple air tanks would really cut down on fuel for stop and go drivers. The air tanks would hold compressed air for power assist when the car accelerates and uses the most fuel.
Ministry of Truth | 05.22.08 - 11:27 am | #
Eaton is all over that already - will roll out in trucks very soon if not out already. I worked on some parts in it (NDA - can't say more).
I remember about 7 years ago when Bill Ford rammed through an $8 Billion special dividend, thinking that it wouldn't be long before it came back to haunt the company. (Of course, it wouldn't haunt the Ford family, now $8B more liquid than they were)
Of course, the Bush - Greenspan monetary spigot policy staved off the day of reckoning for a few extra years, but nothing lasts forever.
Yes we need shorther commutes, public tarnsit, etc. But just increasing the fleet mpg 50%, which requires no new technology whatsoever would shave 25% off the oil import tally and have a HUGE impact on price.
Aheadofthecurve | 05.22.08 - 11:30 am | #
Exactly.
If you double the fuel efficiency of the fleet and half the number of miles driven per person - both doable without hardship considering current fleet & the amount of 'discretionary driving' - you cut oil consumption for personal transport 75%.
Don't need more mechanical engineering PhDs to do that. Duh!
Maybe someday we'll have e^CDO, Level 5, or HSBS (human stupidity backed securities).
Cooking ramen in my percolator | 05.22.08 - 11:27 am | #
I guess I was misinformed - I thought ALL CDOs were powered by human stupidity already?
I remember reading in 2005 - and I saved the article (somewhere)! - an interview with the head of GM where he was imploringly asked about why GM offered NO hybrids, not one, even though the technology was 10 years old at that point. He said something soothing about how we have to look realistically at "the situation."
The fact that US automakers did not offer even one token hybrid to the market told me that they deserved their fate. Even now, the hybrids have been introduced first into the SUV lines. Now, that's stupid.
Too much hysteria. A big vehicle is still cheap insurance. You only live once.
We had the first shot fired over heads during the last oil crisis. Plenty of time to plan & change our ways. Why am I thinking this is deja vu all over again? Corporate management needs a frontal lobotomy.
"Can someone who actually owns a hybrid please comment if it's actually worth buying one?
Try to be objective - if you had to decide again whether or not to buy one, would you ABSOLUTELY do it again, or just MAYBE do it again, or probably NOT do it again?"
Depends on what "worth" means. I have a last-year's Prius and I love it. Maintenance has not been a problem.
There was no economic need for me to have a Prius. We actually drive relatively little; maybe 20-30 in-town miles daily, though with a lot of hill-climbing. With maybe 500 pound passenger load (we're big) we get 43+ mpg daily.
At that rate it'd take a bazillion years to pay off the price difference between the Prius and a regular car. But we bought it for energy security, worst case. If there ever comes a time when gas is actually in short supply -- not just expensive -- we're ready.
It's a wonderful car for in-town and commute driving, where it's at its most efficient compared to gas-powered cars; the gas engine simply turns off when the car stops, even for a few seconds.
Out on the highway it gets 50+ miles per gallon with the AC on. This is comparable to Dryfly's much beloved turbo diesels, but with the advantage of better economy in-town as well.
I would absolutely do it again. As far as whether you should, what's most important? If you spend a lot of time in your car, yes, probably: I'm seeing them more frequently as taxicabs and company cars.
That said, the new Honda hybrids, if the price differential is little, will truly blow most caveats out of the water. Detroit will be toast. They put all their bets on the high-margin no-brainer SUVs, and they've got nothing to fall back on.
"If you double the fuel efficiency of the fleet and half the number of miles driven per person - both doable without hardship considering current fleet & the amount of 'discretionary driving' - you cut oil consumption for personal transport 75%."
The first is a piece of cake. The second is tougher. It's amazing how resistant people are-my wife teaches at a school about 25 miles away. There are quite a few other teachers who live in a 2-3 mile radius of us. She organized a car pool last year; after about a month the others dropped out. If gas is near $5 this fall, it might be worth revisiting.
Just one thing about the Prius hybrid; it is now, or soon will be, easily convertible to a plug-hybrid for $10K installed.
Convert your hybrid electric vehicle into a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
That's a 5,000-cycle advanced lithium-ion battery pack that fits down in the spare tire well (not sure where the spare's supposed to go!).
Cost effective? Maybe not at this point for most people. But cool.
My inlaws bought a Prius in October 2006 and absolutely love it.
You have to accept that you're paying a little extra to do the right thing . . . though they're starting to get a karmic payback on that, with the massive increase in gas prices.
Dryfly,
Do you think the European-style diesels will be available in the US soon? We were living in Europe last year and couldn't believe the variety available. The big dilemma in our house is whether to sell our Toyota Sienna now or wait until there are more fuel efficient options on the market. We don't need the van anymore and are looking for something small. The Jetta sounds great.
Bob Lutz will be the downfall of GM.....
As soon as Wagoner was appointed CEO that signaled the end of any chance they had of competing with.....anyone.
Ciao
MS
K.E.R.S.
Google it.....
and it's not the Kentucky Retirement System....
a modification of that system for mass production wouldn't be that difficult.
Ciao
MS
Berylmarkham: Do those diesels meet air quality regs, especially in CA?
The first is a piece of cake. The second is tougher. It's amazing how resistant people are-my wife teaches at a school about 25 miles away. There are quite a few other teachers who live in a 2-3 mile radius of us. She organized a car pool last year; after about a month the others dropped out. If gas is near $5 this fall, it might be worth revisiting.
Aheadofthecurve | 05.22.08 - 12:04 pm | #
Actually what you are telling me says the miles drived reduction will be easier than you thing - move closer to work AND do fewer one item discretionary trips.
If you had said everyone you know lives close to work & they have already cut back on trips then a 50% reduction would be difficult. What you describe tells me there is a lot of low hanging fruit - just need the will to execute it $5 plus per gallon can instill some will power.
BTW - my wife drives 50 mile each way but in a 50 mpg vehicle it isn't terrible - so far. We are looking to relocate closer to her job after our last child graduates next year. Or she will look for other work locally. Depends on which makes more sense at the time.
There is a lot of low hanging fruit out there. Won't be one solution rather a 'fruit salad' approach.
For once we get to see some real capitalism. How refreshing. Don't make products people need or want? ... you get to make room and provide cheap start-up materials for the next competitor.
I bought a Ford in 1991, ran for 12 years. Great car, got 27/31 and had excellent pickup. 12 years later, they hadn't topped it (in fact they had backslid), so I bought a Toyota.
No one put a gun to FMC's head and forced them not make truly efficient commuter cars that they could be selling easily now. And while they were not making them, they were mocking them. Sayonara to them
I once saw a cartoon that I have not been able to find again. It shows a couple standing around their kitchen table looking at the bills and the man says: "So, we didn't throw a party when gas reached $3 a gallon, and we didn't throw one when gas reached $4 a gallon, but we definitely should throw one when it hits $5" and the caption reads: "How to tell a prius owner."
Maybe I should just redraw it... I'm thinking of using it for the cover of a party invitation
I'm not sure that hybrids right now are actually worth the extra $ to do the "right thing" when you consider that there are other options out there. Even just with gasoline burning cars. I love my Echo; my 2002 Echo is just short of getting the same gas mileage of a 2002 Prius, and for about $8K CDN cheaper.
As I drive about 600km/month, even if I get an extra 10km/l (I get between 18-19km/l) and gas hits $4/l (currently is ~$1.26) that would still be almost 14 years to save any money. When one considers that the 2002 prius gets about 20km/l (I.E. 1-2km/l better; not 10) it's simply a question of whether one buys lottery tickets and/or designer clothes/handbags/watches.
dryfly-Moving is expensive and disruptive and there may be many reasons why people don't want to. Car-pooling, one would think is easy, so I was surprised the others weren't interested. By the way, my wife says she doesn't hear complaints about gas prices in the staff room (and these are teachers not CEOs). I have read that even today, gas consumes a smaller % of family income than it did in 1982. If so, maybe prices have to go still higher!
RE: the prius, people should consider the lifespan of the battery pack, its environmental impact, and the potential secondary cost effects over on the inputs for its productive capital.
The part where the diesel beats it is the part where the diesel engine will still be running when the car around it has fallen to pieces. I haven't really looked at the Prius end to end, but I have to wonder if it's really more efficient or just more efficient from the current perspective of the end user.
Do you think the European-style diesels will be available in the US soon? We were living in Europe last year and couldn't believe the variety available. - Berylmarkham
They are coming... How soon? Don't know. I'm looking at the 08 Jetta's now - need to make a little more money before I turn in my 04 though. The diesels run riduculous number of miles - I have 150K on my 04... my wife has almost that much on her 03 - neither has had major maint.
And 'yes' we all drive a lot out here in flat land. At least I'm not driving my truck... plus I do more work over the net than I ever dreamed I'd do when gas was ~$2/gal.
Berylmarkham: Do those diesels meet air quality regs, especially in CA? - AOTC
For the most part 'yes'. With the cleaner low sulfur fuels & particulate traps pretty much 'yes' - or close to CA standards.
CA standards are pretty much BS - want everyone to go to electric cars so then we end up with coal power plants out in the desert sending acid & C02 & particulates east - but Cali Birkie wearers get to feel all superior while lakes die in Appalachia, NE & Canada. Nice.
As far as diesels in general - old models were real smokers - Europeans worked most of the bugs out of those long ago.
I haven't really looked at the Prius end to end, but I have to wonder if it's really more efficient or just more efficient from the current perspective of the end user.
Urban start-n-stop commuter type driving the Prius rocks. Over the road long haul it sucks compared to diesel. Simple analysis there but pretty much right on.
dryfly-Moving is expensive and disruptive and there may be many reasons why people don't want to.
They won't want to drive small cars or eat a more 'local less energy dependent diet' either - but they will - or some mix of it all. Eventually.
Again think low hanging fruit & fruit salad - not one mandated solution. That is the power of price signals vs regulation - lets you find the solution that works best for you... but price signals drive & enforce those changes better than any regulation ever could. believe me - I feel it as I drive around NAFTA Zone paying current fuel prices!
That was my point.
I think the gas mileage is obvious, but I haven't seen any discussion on brake replacement costs about the SUV. These things are heavy; people have to be eating up those brake pads.
A subcompact will get you about as good of mileage and often better on the highway than a hybrid. It is the same reason Honda dropped the Accord Hybrid. If I remember right, the Toyota Highlander laid an egg when it was originally released. Going by vehicles with similar weights, it seems the hybrid can improve urban gas mileage by about 50% and you lose 10% on the highway. This is well and good except you are paying a significant premium. With the Highlander that is $5000. You need to be putting on a lot of urban miles to justify that. What the Prius has done has been to make a vehicle smaller than the Corolla fashionable.
As for Ford, they aren't in the worst shape in the world. The Focus is due for a redesign. The 500 is a better Taurus and will represent the mid-sized segment better for them now that it will be called a Taurus. The advantage of the F-Series is than it hasn't tended to be a vanity truck, so there is a real commerical base with farmers and what not there. How they hold up against the Tundra in that segment will determine how much pain they feel.
that cracked me up
NoVa writes:
I did not think Poland had roads? At least not close to what is needed. I believe there are old roads built by the Germans still in use and called "Hitlerstrasses." This was a deliberate result of Soviet policy.
Yes we still have some of the German build roads, in similar shape to the Chicago ones
Some random pisc from Warsow [Warszawa] by Machoney - SkyscraperCity
Corollas must be a lot bigger than they used to be, but i haven't car shopped in a while, so I haven't seen inside one. I can load 10 foot long 2x6s diagonally into our prius at homedepot and still have six inches to spare. (no front seat passenger, obviously.) And the interior space is almost that of a camry for passengers, but yes, the premium, without the $3000 in tax breaks we got when we bought ours 4 years ago.
But it has nice unintended consequences and that is cleaner city air at ground level. I bike a lot and I can't stand all the toxic fumes while waiting at a light, especially since as a hybrid owner, I maddeningly know they are unnecessary... as I wait there holding my breath.
I have a truck. It's an old VW Rabbit Pickup with a 1.6 diesel. It's quite "speed challenged", but I can maintain highway speeds & carry quite a lot of stuff in it. It averages 46mpg on the hwy. I don't feel so ridiculous driving it anymore...
It is certainly possible that VW doesn't yet export such cars to the U.S. - domestic demand in Europe is certainly high enough, and the filter systems were definitely a bottleneck in the somewhat recent past..
They export their best here - I own two - its just that Cali regs are the toughest in the world. Like I said above - their intent is to go electric, build a bunch of coal plants in the desert & export their pollution to the rest of NATA Zone and feel smug about it. Well maybe not intentionally but that is the practical effect.
Regardless diesels DO produce more particulates even with the traps & best technology compared to fuel injected gas vehicles but so little that the reduction in OTHER pollutants & CO2 from the reduced fuel usage by diesels MORE than offsets the small (and in modern diesels I mean real small) increase in particulates.
Also most of the particulate production comes at start up (warming up) and due to acceleration. Both more common during start-stop urban driving.
Hybrids are a better answer in cities ASSUMING you can't use public transportation. Diesels make more sense long haul over the road. Pick the right tool to do the job.
Lengths of each. Mileage
Camry: 189.2 in 21/31 Hybrid (33/34)
Corolla: 178.7 in. 27/35
Prius: 175 in. 48/45
Yaris: 169.3 in 29/35
The ratio of passenger compartment to total length in a Prius is far larger than in a Camry. The hood on the Prius is a short little thing because the engines are side-by-side and the gas one is only a 1.5l and the Camry needs to leave space for a v6.
Camry Legroom (front/rear) \t41.6/38.3
EPA Passenger Volume (cu. ft.) \t101.4
Prius Legroom (front/rear) 41.9/38.6
EPA Passenger Volume (cu. ft.) 96.2
But thanks for playing.
Whatever. Cabin space is not the descriptor used for determining vehicle class and is not determinate for gas mileage.
Dry
You will be happy to discover Kenworth and International are delivering hybrid medium duty trucks as we type. At least one of the forestry lift truck makers is using a hybrid chasis to make buckets trucks now. The truck motor kicks on every once in a while to recharge the battery that runs the lift hydralics. Users are reporting up to 25% fuel savings plus it is quieter in residential work sites.
Yes we still have some of the German build roads, in similar shape to the Chicago ones
Some random pisc from Warsow 404 - Not Found t=603282
darius | 05.22.08 - 2:03 pm | #
Yes, I posted elsewhere a lot of fotos of old Warshau und I reconized the insurance building that has been around since the 1930's? We were in Krakow last Summer.
Poland looks to be investing a lot of money in infrastructure...EU money?
"RE: the prius, people should consider the lifespan of the battery pack, its environmental impact, and the potential secondary cost effects over on the inputs for its productive capital."
Toyota offers a $200 bounty for every hybrid battery, which gets fully recycled at the end of its lifespan.
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Someone else asked for folks' hybrid experiences. For what it's worth, I bought a used 2002 Toyota Prius last year, and it runs fine. No traditional car can beat a hybrid for Los Angeles traffic. Regular cars burned through gasoline while crawling 2mph through rush hour traffic on the 405. The Prius, on the other hand, cuts its gasoline engine at every opportunity -- when coasting, braking, stopped, or going under 20mph.
If you have to put up with Los Angeles-level traffic, I strongly recommend a hybrid.
my wife and i have a van, a pick up and a 2004 ford focus
i like the focus a lot except for road noise. handles better than my old model 2002 bmw, gets 35 mpg at 65 mph on the interstate and is roomy for a sub compact.
if i jerk it around on city streets millage goes down to 26...65k on it now, and no problems.
well, since gasoline and diesel are heavily taxed in europe, asian gasoline cars with small engines 1.5 can achieve 80kW/109hp wih a very nice consumption.
Yes, I posted elsewhere a lot of fotos of old Warshau und I reconized the insurance building that has been around since the 1930's? We were in Krakow last Summer.
Poland looks to be investing a lot of money in infrastructure...EU money?
Nova | Homepage | 05.22.08 - 8:15 pm | #
I was born and lived in Krakow for 14 years. Poland being in the EU has attracted lots of outside investors. It has also experienced huge real estate run ups as well although the financing was never loose as in the US.