Historical Housing Graphs: Months of Supply, Sales and Inventory
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 05/23/2008 - 9:31am (44 comments)
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Just wondering how to tell owner occupied -vs- speculation and landlord/rental volumes. I'm guessing that some large percentage of foreclosures and delinquencies are the latter.
Looks like a great buyers market in 2010!
First?!? AND second?
OT and oh my (about 1/3 into the article):
Gasoline Near $4 Shortens Trips for U.S. Memorial Day (Update1)
By Angela Greiling Keane
[snip]
The Federal Highway Administration said today that U.S. motorists cut their driving by 4.3 percent in March, the biggest monthly drop ever.
[snip]
CR,
Whats going to happen when the sales bar gets below the inventory bar?
And short sales, REO's, etc...are they in these charts? Could be a lot worse than we know.
The trends are really remarkable. The don't appear to be decelerating at all.
Any chance we could get a historical NAR Spin Activity graph?
My house is not for sale.
I might be, for a high enough bid.
Another meaningless first?
(repost)
CR-
Where did the tips jar go?
I've got love for the work but no way to show it!
..........................
Nope - many appeared out of the either-or-net.
CR is on a roll today. Thanks a bunch.
I think "historical trends" will be thrown off by so many sales being REO/distressed. These sales don't contribute to the "housing chain of demand"
ades, I heard it got lost during the move, but, turns out, it wasn't packed well and now it's broken...seems CR hasn't had time to replace it yet, what with all of the demanding impatient posters here!
hopeinsd,
You bring up a good point. REO sales could cushion the pain Lowes and Home Depot are starting to experience. In contrast, I would expect apartment REITs like Cambden Properties to be hit by REO sales.
Best,
Very nice pictures, CR.
Geez, just think how bad the picture would look if cancelations held by homebuilders were counted in the inventory.... Yikes! Yes, past periods used the same method, so they weren't counted then either. But they are much, much worse in this bust. And so the inventory is actually understated when viewing historical charts like this....right?
And are the banks REOs all showing up in these inventory numbers? If not, then it's already gaaaaawwwwdd awful!!
Thanks CR! There is so much 'great' news here, new house permits, sales and prices are up, existing inventory is down, sales are up and prices are up, employment is up... maybe it's true, maybe not. However, one look at those graphs and my house bug quits itching!
FDICs Bair: Foreclosure Aid Is Train Wreck
FDIC’s Bair: Foreclosure Aid Is ‘Train Wreck’ - Real Time Economics - WSJ
Tim, that is the end of the world as we know it ... just kidding. That just means prices will falling fast.
nades, thanks for the thought. I haven't got around to adding it back yet.
Best to all.
Can anyone provide any reason why I shouldn't be loading up on HD Puts?
For the life of me, I can't see a way in which their share price won't be a shell of its former self in a year or so.
CR:
Is there a strong correlation between Home Price Appreciation and Months of Supply? Either way, that would be an interesting graph.
HaloScan is acting funny.
Great charts as always. Painful, but fascinating, to watch this unfold.
So. . . is this a great time to buy? (Does asking to encourage -- taunt -- those realtors out there. So sad)
CR, given your chart below on seasonal inventory patterns, is it somewhat misleading to use april numbers when all the others are year end numbers (when inventory is at a low point?)
I guess what i'm wondering is how that chart would look if they were all april numbers.
This is great work. It's such a pleasure to see data presented as real information, and so succinctly explained.
thanks.
Realtor Playbook
- Prices up = Great Time to Buy
- Prices down = Great Time to Buy
- Prices level = Great Time to Buy
- Stats from any Y year period can be used to show that home prices always go up
What will realtor mantra be in 10 years?
Realtor Playbook 2015
- Prices are at their lowest level since last year.
- Now is a great time to buy
- Over the past 50 years a home has been a great investment with appreciation rate of 10% per year*
- Run to your nearest realtor!
*Only true in 5% of the country, actual appreciation rate may vary from zip-code to zip-code.
How much is a federal bailout of Vallejo's creditors going to cost taxpayers?
In gallons of gas or Yuan please.
Dollars are so 20th century.
It's just not a challenge any more.
How will the realwhores going to spin this one?
I expect sales to continue to plunge as the economy weakens and banks credit quality deteriorates in its core businesses.
Yes, CR! The LT charts show the real picture. Excellent job.
I live in a "black hole"(Virginia Beach/Norfolk MSA) as far as publicly-available housing market data is concerned.
But I just read in a CNN.money.com report Top 100 markets forecast: Where home prices are headed next - May. 7, 2008... (with data from FiServ & Core Logic) on "home price forecasts in the 100 biggest markets", that my MSA-- VA Beach-- has experienced the THIRD highest 5-year increase in house prices in the entire bloody nation... Honolulu is #1, with a 5-year change-up of 95.3%, Miami #2 (94.8), & Va Beach #3 (at 90.1) Which shocked me-- you'll never read that bit of info in our local press.
Yesterday I read the OFHEO HPI, & it almost gives the same rankings: Miami (92.03% 5-year change-up), #2 is Honolulu (89.47%), & again, #3 is crappy old VA Beach, at 85.31%.
You'd think being #3 in the nation for bubbled-up prices might get a mention by local media, but no way. The local newspaper, the Virginian Pilot, is up for sale & will not alienate advertisers by printing "bad news" on local housing. (And it is very bad-- I managed to glean that South Hampton Roads sales volume has fallen by 70% in April-- tho prices here have fallen hardly at all.
But it's hard to gauge, in the "bad news blackout" by our media. In fact,the local realtors/builders/MLS owners openly boasted, online, about meeting with & pressuring the publisher of the Pilot to shill for them... "As a result of the meeting, the newspaper agreed to provide free advertising space three times a week for the industry to provide facts and figures to prove their case, as well as editorial space for industry leaders to submit columns to be featured prominently in the Sunday edition." Nation's Building News Online for April 21, 2008
Unbelievable. ("Pay no attention to that builder over there behind the curtain...)
Good God, they're like freaking Orcs...
I live in the Inland Empire and the real estate is booming. For every property there are multiple bids.
Rumor:
Ditech in talks to buy HD
RP, are you a realtor?
I'm not a realtor. I just started to look for homes this past week and found most homes are bank owned and have many bids on them. This is a real turn around. I don't know how to get into the market - realtors are so busy here that they don't follow up when you call. We drove around last night and picked up 12 flyers and today I called ...every single one has multiple offers. What is going on?
CR's too polite to mention it but for those of you simply dying to give him/them money, you can always go use the address listed on the page where you sign up for the monthly news letter. I don't know if the paypal link can handle both tips and subscriptions but checks and nickel-filled envelopes still work in theory. Late at night you can amuse yourselves by attempting to stuff stamp-covered martinis into post-office boxes for him. Ancient technologies, I know, but oh well.
What this does not say is how much of the sales are sales back to the bank. Many banks are not putting their REO's on the market. This is a Pollyannic view of what is going on. Include the REOs in the inventory and count legitimate sales only and the picture is dismal. Who are they trying to fool?
RP, in the late 80's we bought a home in Oklahoma. We tried buying an REO, the market was flooded with HUDs. Time after time we were outbid, by 30-40% of the asking price! We eventually bought a home from a lady who was transferred to the Pentagon, her original price was 87K, and we picked it up for about 50K... If we had given 87K for it, it's possible that we could have 'broke even' about 18 years later. Good luck, but be careful!
conspiracy theories, I'm upset I never thought of that... but then again, I think too rationally more often than not.
I can't even begin to speculate why Ditech would purchase HD, but then again I don't know much about Ditech.
Time for more hunting...
"We drove around last night and picked up 12 flyers and today I called ...every single one has multiple offers. What is going on?"
RP | 05.23.08 - 4:07 pm | #
RP,
Same thing that happened here in Charlotte County a year ago. The demand at the current price point is getting met. After this demand gets sucked up it'll slow a bunch. We had a huge train wreck of listings pile up in the last three months. But a year ago you could watch the cheap homes disappear. As a example...3 years ago/under 100k/maybe a dumpy trailer in a park.
2 years ago/under 100k/50-75 listings.
1 year ago/under 100k/150 listings.
Current under 100k/550 plus AND CLIMBING.
Ya'll are about 12 months behind the train wreck here in Florida as a fyi.
Chris
love to go to realtor.com/cape coral to see what I have to look forward to... the views here are much uglier though.
Everyone buying now thinks home prices are going to soar back up again by next year. I don't know when that mentality is going to disappear, but right now I'd say a generous guess is that those of us who don't agree with that sentiment are around 20% of America.
"love to go to realtor.com/cape coral to see what I have to look forward to... the views here are much uglier though."
Average Citizen | 05.23.08 - 4:42 pm
I don't know if you read it when I posted it,but the parents rental units in the Cape are almost at the same rents as when purchsed. 15 years ago. The Cape is a fucking accident that makes Charlotte County look sorta sane.
Have you seen the absolute insane amout of large lots in Charlotte county hit the MLS in the last three months ??? 400 plus have been added. All have outer space pricing. Gonna be a long summer.
Chris
YLSP, you are probably right.
Many (most?) folks think this has been an awful housing bust, but thank god it's just about over, thanks to benevolent government intervention, and of course the undeniable demographics and the obvious shortage of affordable housing!
We now return to our regularly-scheduled house-price appreciation...as you've come to love over the past 10 years.
RP writes:
I'm not a realtor. I just started to look for homes this past week and found most homes are bank owned and have many bids on them. This is a real turn around.
haha
yeahn right. Looked at a house a few weeks ago. it was sickening overpriced. The realtor has called several times telling us how we could bid $80-100K less.
That's called desperation. Screw'em i have no interest in their shack.
I like your charts but I think you are jumping to conclusions. Not like you.
First, you need to adjust for population. The simple reliance on a median over a long period of time when a lot of buyers entered the market is over an over simplification. Granted it would skew the numbers downward but still would provide more relevant data.
Second, the graph would seem to indicate that regardless of the adjustments I suggested that sales have historically fallen for a three year period in downturns and then trended back up. That being said do you think we might be at or near the trough if the same trend applies?
3. I've mentioned here before and on other blogs as well as my own that we are creating a national problem out of what is in fact a regional phenomena. If that is the case then the application of macro numbers to the issue is skewing analysis as well as response.
Thanks.
Where does the source data come from for these analyses?
Thx