Housing: Why was Kudlow so wrong?
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sun, 05/25/2008 - 1:35pm (130 comments)
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shotgu
Kudlow is correct that is why home prices doubles every 19 years.
Why not ridicule? The demographics of the baby boom and the decreasing household size were both predictable a dozen years ago. IMO Kudlow cherry picked his census data to support a preexisting conclusion and that in of itself is worthy of ridicule.
How come Larry Kudlow still has a job when he's so wrong all the time.
Rob Dawg, yes, but my intention in posting wasn't to ridicule Kudlow - but to point out the flaws in his approach.
I was arguing with so many of these guys back then - and Kudlow's piece stood out because he was a bit insulting.
Best Wishes.
I knew Kudlow as a paid political hack back in the roaring 70's. He just wants to be loved!
He learned to read a balance sheet at ITT Tech. Why bother.
Kudlow learned a while back that reality doesn't sell very well.
Tell people what they want to hear, not useful information that's likely to improve their lives.
Then create an industry around these false beliefs to rob them blind.
This is the Wall Street we have today.
Rob Dawg, yes, but my intention in posting wasn't to ridicule Kudlow - but to point out the flaws in his approach.
Don't worry, us posters will take care of the ridicule part.
So is household size going to hold steady as well? My assumption is that with baby boomer's retiring and dying off, they will leave a lot of excess capacity. I think baby boomers (and their elder parents) are dying at rate greater than replacement birth-rate.
I don't have any hard data to back this up, but I would think this is why the stock market and housing prices might not be zooming back up like everyone thinks. Who is going to buy the homes? Especially with the owner-occupied rate so high...
But hey, I'm not a shill for anything... just trying to understand what's going on.
About the most respect I can muster for Larry is the fact that he lets most of his guests articulate complete thoughts, sometimes even Barry Ritholtz.
There's nothing personal or mean spirited in my impatience. Like I mentioned above conclusion driven analysis needs to be identified wherever whenever. To his credit he serves to remind us the the US manufacturing technology innovation infrastructure remains strong.
Thanks for the flashback to 2005.
kudlow was so wrong because he's an idiot propagandist who has no interest in the facts. this is true of every issue he speaks about.
OT: In a prior post I mentioned a 24 country inflation value of 7% which I said was probably correct for the US.
I remembered where I saw it - Bill Gross's June investmet outlook on the PIMCO site.
Worth a read IMO.
PIMCO - IO June 2008
Jim
"If there were a Rushmore for Veeps, Cheney would be all four faces."
-DoomersNightmare
ac writes:
Kudlow learned a while back that reality doesn't sell very well.
Having spent much of the last three years trying to learn about investing, the markets and finance, I feel sure ac's comment applies to pretty much 98% of the commentary fed to us by the media. People like Kudlow are entertainers, they make money based on how many people listen to them. I really doubt if he would have cared whether his premise was right or wrong, just so people tuned in and his next contract was larger than the last.
This holds true of most of the analysis we are fed, we hear from people who want to be listened to, not those who have any verifiable expertise. When Bloomberg introduces someone as managing $15B in assets and he proceeds to spew the perceived wisdom de jour, I'm left to assume that there are a lot of morons who are pretty careless with their assets.
CR is about the only source I've found who has a genuine intellectual curiosity that isn't subordinated to a juvenile ego.
YLSP writes:
I think baby boomers (and their elder parents) are dying at rate greater than replacement birth-rate.
You have got to be kidding? Do you think the U.S. has birthrates on the order of Germany, Italy or Japan?
Why was Kudlow so wrong? It is clear from the picture - he wasn't wearing his glasses.
Actually, he did make some good points about tax advantages, but they were probably a better explanation of the past than (obviously) a predictor of the future. Unless you want to invoke them as a reason why the recovery may come sooner than 2012.
YLSP writes:
I think baby boomers (and their elder parents) are dying at rate greater than replacement birth-rat
We still have more births, but we are about the only developed nation that has significant immigration. Out population grows about 1% a year. That's one of the saving graces of this country.
I put my money on Brian Wesbury being the genius behind that crap.
Leix,
Nope... like I said this is just my "feeling". I didn't look at any data. We are no slouch, but we have an aging population, no?
Why was Kudlow so wrong?
There is a also a one line answer this question.
ac,
Don't worry, us posters will take care of the ridicule part.
The Bears Are/Were Delusional
Larry's off tonight but as always Kudlow & Company aims to be right on America, right on busines, and right on the money.
He was off that night. That's all it was.
Don't worry, us posters will take care of the ridicule part.
CR is about the only source I've found who has a genuine intellectual curiosity that isn't subordinated to a juvenile ego.
We'll take care of the juvenile ego part , too.
"Kudlow is wrong" is essentially a dog bites man story. The story of the year is when he's right about something. Which is never.
It may not be your intention to embarass or ridicule Kudlow, but he definitely deserves both.
The only easier targets I know of are Ben Stein and Don Luskin.
How convenient of CNBC to convene them together each night.
If it's your intention to embarrass the august Mr. Kudlow, first determine if someone can locate those Polaroids.
sdtfs,
We'll take care of the juvenile ego part , too.
Absolutely.
Fight fire with fire!
Also in the series...
Build more houses to solve a housing problem!
Issue more debt to solve a debt problem!
Print more money to solve a money printing problem!
Create more free lunches to solve a free lunch problem!
zackattack,
The only easier targets I know of are Ben Stein and Don Luskin.
How convenient of CNBC to convene them together each night.
Show of hands. Who is still winning Ben Stein's money? Don't be shy. Not everyone at once though. Please. Let's show some dignity here.
Bad loans are rising at Iowa's banks
desmoinesregister.com | Des Moines | The Des Moines Register
U.S. not yet half way through home mortgage trouble: Seidman (former FDIC chairman)
U.S. not yet half way through home mortgage trouble: Seidman
| Reuters
...the bears who are delusional.
Stag Mark, That video from July 2007 is hilarious!!
I hope to find one day that column from, perhaps February, 2007 where Ben Stein recommended VNQ, nearly top-ticking it.
Housing is not Larry's area of expertise in economics. That would be supply and demand of cocaine.
I wonder if there is any speculation in/on the price of oil?
It seems to me that almost all the "gasbags" on cable TV and talk radio engage in what is called "confirmation bias". They find an audience that has a strong point of view about something and then tell that audience what it wants to hear (and sell soap in the process). Lou Dobbs ,for example, goes on and on every night with indignation about illegal immigrants. Kudlow justifies the free market politics that put most of the wealth in a few hands. His audience probably appreciates being told they are entitled (and they may be).
Jim
Bob_in_MA sed: ...we are about the only developed nation that has significant immigration. Our population grows about 1% a year. That's one of the saving graces of this country.
List of countries by population growth rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Sample:
1 \tLiberia \t4.50
2 \tBurundi \t3.90
3 \tAfghanistan \t3.85
[...]
130 \tHong Kong \t1.00
131 \tUnited States \t0.97
132 \tMongolia \t0.96
[...]
228 \tMoldova \t-0.90
229 \tNiue \t-1.85
230 \tCook Islands \t-2.23
Lesson: you don't want to be at the extremes. Germany and Japan are declining slightly, Denmark, Norway and the UK are increasing slightly, Canada and the US are sitting around 0.9. (mostly due to immigration, I assume).
And who is sitting at 0.0? Pitcairn Island. So much for the argument about extremes.
Noni
PS where the heck is Niue?
FT Woods,
I found that video yesterday while looking for something to go with a post I was working on. Needless to say, I scrapped my original idea entirely and dwelled exclusively on the video. Go figure!
Kudlow is a troll -- please, CR, don't feed the trolls. ;>)
You old folks should stop spending time here analyzing and pretending to know something. Time to think about living life while you have a few years left. Face it, know one wants to listen to an old man speaking through his old sagged and folded skin.
p.s.: That last anon was me.
Strike that! My last post got eaten by haloscan, so I didn't "anon" like I thought I had. OOPS.
Stag Mark,
Welcome back! Where ya been hiding?
The business news shows on CNBC and Fox are pretty worthless sources of investment advice. Kudlow, Cramer, Cavuto and crowd are primarily entertainers. Cavuto is the perhaps the worst. I heard him tell a guest to "shut up" because he used the phrase "hedonic adjustments" when talking about the CPI. Cavuto sounded like he was about to call the police. Kudlow, who admits he was once a cocaine addict, is simply not to be taken seriously. His only degree is history, although he studied economics. All that would be ok except he rarely says anything intelligent about economics, but at least he's generally polite to his guests.
tj & the bear writes:
Stag Mark,
Welcome back! Where ya been hiding?
tj & the bear | 05.25.08 - 9:20 pm | #
He was hiding behind the fold of his skin. Peek-a-boo! lmao
Kudlow is a Shill and an idiot. Why was he wrong?... you don't have enough space in this comment section to write all the reasons.
Larry Kudlow is not a subject for debate.
He' a pimp for a phantom demon economy.
When he's not talking 'book', he's pumping 'book'.
It's a major flaw in the credibility of CNBC
that he's employed other than to sweep floors.
We need reliable sources to price these markets.
Fibs might allay some fears, but they feed doubts,
then fears.
DoomersNightmare should stick with
his skinhead tattoo fetish.
And move into a little condo
near the bus stop so you can
pay for this failed nation's sins.
StagMark,thanks for the link,and ffdic,I always appreciate yours as well.As far as the MSM when you look at the small number of corporations that control it we are lucky it is no worse.John Edwards made mention of this concentration and his campaign was over instantly.
Agree with all the Kudlow bashers. However, it seems to me that, for whatever reason, he's been wandering a bit off script lately. There are cryptic references to "Nicorette gum" that I suspect refer to his druggie past. The main thing, though, is he's suddenly worried about the dollar and criticizing Helicopter Ben for all the rate cuts (don't think he had any concerns on them at the time,though).
Unfortunately pretty well all the talking heads you will see on TV are pretty much useless.
I don't have the time or stomach to watch Kudlow, but he's positioned where he is because that's apparently what the people who watch CNBC want. Somebody like Doug Noland of the Prudent Bear may be a better forecaster, but the viewing public apparently doesn't want to hear that they are all doomed.
As for the talking heads from the brokerages, they are there just to spin happy tales and not do anything that could damage relationships with any corporate issuer. (There are a few exceptions, like Rosenberg from Merrill.) Thus, it's always a good time to buy shares or corporate bonds. However, there are limits - Goldman recently yanked Abbey Cohen once it was obvious that she was completely unhinged from reality.
I doubt that anyone in finance who's been employed for more than a few years takes any of them too seriously. All you can hope to do is pick up some ideas, but you have to ignore the investment recommendations.
Kudlow will be the ultimate contrarian indicator. When he capitulates, it'll be time to back up the truck.
However, there are limits - Goldman recently yanked Abbey Cohen once it was obvious that she was completely unhinged from reality.
Heh heh... that was obvious 8 years ago. What took them so long?
un autre canadien avec popcorn writes:
How come Larry Kudlow still has a job when he's so wrong all the time.
As an econ professor asked many years ago, suppose you have two analysts and have to fire one. Analyst #1 is right 65% of the time and analyst #2 is right 20% of the time. Who do you ax?
A: the better analyst since the odds are better if you bet against the worse analyst's calls.
Germany and Japan are declining slightly
Japan's population pyramid is collapsing from the bottom. There are ~HALF the number of kids 0-18 there than when I was first FOB there in 1992.
And CNBC continues to give occasional
stage to a certain blonde at a famous
investment house who admits she designed
now-infamous products that qualified as
debts for tax purposes, while also
qualifying as assets for rating
purposes.
why kudlow was wrong is a lot simpler than CR's analysis...kudlow lets his political views cloud his economic judgement, and if there was a housing bubble, it wouldn't have been the greatest story never told.
"How come Larry Kudlow still has a
job when he's so wrong all the time."
Pastor Hagee has a bigtime job.
GWB has a bigtime job.
Sumner Redstone has a bigtime job.
so
.
"Japan's population pyramid is
collapsing from the bottom. "
My deep appreciation to Japan for leading
the world in a trend that must grow quickly.
Larry Kudlow will become an uber-bear if Senator Obama wins the Presidency and Congress leans more Democrat as recent actions suggest.
Kudlow is a neocon hack. He ran for congress back in 1982 on a Democratic ticket. LOL.
tj & the bear and DoomersNightmare,
Where ya been hiding?
He was hiding behind the fold of his skin. Peek-a-boo!
I was hiding! That's amazing! I've been using the tweety bird defense from the aptly named Room and Bird episode.
Oh hello puddy tat, what you doin' up there? Ah, the poor puddy tat fall down. Wake up puddy tat. This is no time to go to sleep.
I thought I saw a dead puddy tat bounce. I did! I did see a dead puddy tat bounce!
I know, I know. Don't feed the cartoon sylvesters of the world. How can I stop though? It's a growth business.
Sylvester's Sequence
Grow doubly exponentially
What's not to like? Dow 113,423,713,055,421,844,361,000,443 anyone? Money and credit expansion is the greatest story never told!
Larry Kudlow will become an uber-bear if Senator Obama wins the Presidency and Congress leans more Democrat as recent actions suggest.
I doubt it. Kudlow was wearing pink mini-skirts and cheering the dotcom bubble during Clinton years. He is a neocon parasite. They are always on the look out for new hosts to infest
The housing bubble wasn't a story of demand exceeding supply nearly as much as it was a story of credit exceeding money.
Kudlow is looking for a positive spin on everything. He is incapable of any analysis.
Larry Kudlow has embarrassed himself time and again over the past 12 months. The real issue CR is raising here is much bigger than about any commentators (including maybe CR) may realize.
The mainstream media has shot its wad. Kudlow represents the MSM and CR represents the best of the bloggers. The MSM really has almost no rationale or purpose left. This is mainly because the MSM has been so sloppy and wrong, while blogs like CR have been so disciplined, consistent and accurate. Ultimately, the tide of public opinion will flow to those who are honest and right.
It has been that way in the U.S. since the days of Thomas Paine. Today, CR is most like Thomas Paine and Kudlow in comparison is a fraud.
Over the next decade, you are going to see almost everything we now know as "mainstream media" bite the dust.
If a blog like CR can fill the gap and monetize the opportunity, so be it. More power to them.
krudblow has a perty mouth.
El Cliffo,
The housing bubble wasn't a story of demand exceeding supply nearly as much as it was a story of credit exceeding money.
In addition to that, I might argue that the money supply was growing for those who didn't need credit and shrinking for those who did (i.e., growing income inequality).
It looked somewhat okay on average though, much like putting one foot in boiling water and the other in liquid nitrogen might seem okay on average.
I would just like to say that I have been a loyal subscriber to the NY Post for over two decades, through thick and thin.
Today, I woke up to a beautiful day, looked at the NY Post front page for 30 seconds, and decided that I don't want or need this newspaper any more. I cancelled my subscription.
Today's NY Post headline was so embarrassing that I can't post a link to it. They have taken it down.
But it said: "Kennedys RFK remark 'last nail' in Hill's coffin."
I don't need a newspaper that makes references to the coffins of our Presidential candidates.
The political manipulation and distortion that has become part of the SOP of the NY Post, day in and day out, is mind-boggling. Quite honestly, no U.S. resident needs to pay newspapers for this kind of garbage any more, especially when it is mostly available for free online, if you really want to read it.
I am going to try to send some of the money I've been paying the post to CR and Tanta. I urge you to do the same. Thank you and have a great holiday.
We still have more births, but we are about the only developed nation that has significant immigration
Ever hear of Canada or Australia?
Canada's legal immigration greatly exceeds US legal and illegal immigration combined on a per capital basis.
The UK and Ireland have also seen a large influx, again legal, from the new EU states (Poland etc) since 2004.
Home prices don't double every 19 years, they go up 1000 percent (one thousand percent) from 1993 to 2008.
Neutra's Kaufmann House in Palm Springs CA just fell out of a deal valued between $19 and $25 million. The house sold to the current owner in '93 for $1.9 million.
IMO, the drop in housing prices from 2005 to 1993 is well within an expected range, overshooting the expected inflation adjusted bottom, which would be around $3.2 million.
There's an elevator shaft down which home prices will continue to descend, hoocudanode, at break neck speed.
And a pox on all their houses as there is no free lunch, and house prices don't rise forever, and who cares if God's not making new land when the current occupants can't afford to be on it. The idiocy of greed and rock skippers will sink them like a string of albatrosses and a lead weight or two for good measure.
The gifts are coming; patience and attention to one's store of value are the two qualities required at this time.
The losers in the upper class can wish they were smarter, but the angel of economic death doesn't spare anyone's RE holdings in their portfolios. It's time to disgorge the 3rd bread-winner's holdings; bye bye RE.
Little known fact:
Did you know that Kudlow played the role of Lumpy Rutherford in Leave It To Beaver?
Credit where due for CNBC.
I generally have confidence in
Charlie Gasparino and David Faber.
BTW, that blonde that I hate to
see is Erin Callan, CFO at Lehman.
Fooled the feds, but welcomed on CNBC.
tj & the bear writes:
Kudlow will be the ultimate contrarian indicator. When he capitulates, it'll be time to back up the truck.
tj & the bear | 05.25.08 - 10:04 pm | #
I was thinking the same thing EXACTLY. LOL.
...average new construction since the early 1970s has hovered around 1.5 million to 1.75 million new starts per year. During the same period, the number of American households has increased by 48 million, or 75 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. It is plain to see that the family demand for homes has far outstripped the supply of newly built residences.
If he was cherrypicking data he didn't do it very well. Using his own data and being as charitable as possible we have 32 years (1973-2005; I can't see how "the early 70s" could be much later than '73) of at least 1.5 million new homes per year, or a minimum of 48 million total new homes, which he claims is "clearly outstripped" by the 48 million new households.
Why would anyone have taken this seriously, when he couldn't even do a back-of-the-envelope calculation on his own figures?
PS where the heck is Niue?
Noni Mausa | 05.25.08 - 8:53 pm |
Very small pacific island near fiji, more Niueans in NZ than on home island. They come to NZ for education and tend to end up staying.
when Kudlow comes on the mute button is next..he is an idiot! He reminds me of a hawker at the state fair.
Is it true he was snorting coke in his prior life?
I'm not quite the pushover that I was when I was younger,but I'm afraid that Erin B. and Maria B. in person could make me do anything......."Beat me,whip me,make me buy junk"
I think if you say "larry kudlow" three
times he will pass through the screen
as a hologram and bore you to death
with his same old same old.
Somebody above said Kudlow lets his guests finish their thoughts... What???! He cuts off those he disagrees with, criticizes them in what is couched as teasing, and then immediately switches over to a guest more in line with the company line (i.e. God created capitalism just as it exists today in America).
You can learn more in five minutes reading CR and Tanta than watching Kudow for a year. I don't think he correlates with anything. He's just a noise source.
But looking at more recent history, say, 2002 through 2007, the Census stats show the number of housing units increasing from 119.3 million to 128.0 million, while the number of households increased only from 105.0 million to 110.3 million.
(It's important to note that what Census actually measures is the fraction of household heads surveyed who report that they own their residence -- their nominal absolute number of households appears to be based on their estimate of the fraction of all households that they survey, and in 2002 was revised down by about 3.5 million.)
Interestingly, from 2006 to 2007, the fraction of household heads reporting themselves as owners declined and the Census estimate of the absolute number of homeowners declined, while the estimated number of renters climbed by one million.
Larry Kudlow is a charlatan. He cares only about his paycheck and nothing else. He had to apologize on national TV after his stock market cheerleading helped lead to the collapse of 2002. He tries to whip people into a frenzy so they BUY BUY BUY and Watch his show. When standing near Larry Kudlow, hold onto your wallet with both hands.
"CR is about the only source I've found who has a genuine intellectual curiosity that isn't subordinated to a juvenile ego."
CR is very good. But I would also recommend Bill Fleckenstein and Minyanville.
So Kudlow is Sebastian?
Kudlow is the blowhard who predicted oil @ $20bbl as a result of invading Iraq.
That being said, even a dolt like Larry could figure out the cuts since Jan have been inflative.
Bill Fleckenstein is right only 30% of the time. Do the opposite of what he says and you will make more money. In that sense it is good to know what he is saying.
Independant Guru Rating on Bill Fleckenstein: "poor" ... "In summary, Bill Fleckenstein's stuck-on-pending-disaster outlook has resulted in a very weak stock market forecasting record over the past few years. Confidence in this conclusion is moderate. When disaster does strike, he will have warned us, and warned us, and warned us..."
Jim Rogers, April 2008, in MoneyMorning.com
Jim Rogers: More Pain for the Greenback, and the Failure of the Federal Reserve
" At least in the 70s, we were still a creditor nation.
Japan could survive because they were the largest
creditor in the world at the time. .
Americas now the largest debtor the world has ever seen.
Whats happening in the U.S. is not going to be fun. "
CR, c'mon do you really not know the answer? Because he's a plutocrat.
The writer of the article is a mental midget compared to Kudlow. The writer of the article longs for the days of the Carter Administration. You know, interest rates of 14-16% unemployment of 12% and inflation rates through the roof.
yogurt: half of people from eastern europe have already gone back from UK & ireland. during 2007 libra lost 11% against euro and up to 33% against rising eastern european currencies.
Kudlow has done a lot of damage:
excerpts from wikipedia
In August 2001, Kudlow was paid about US$50,000 to give a public speech to Enron employees and to serve on an advisory board (snip)
On June 26, 2002, in a commentary by Kudlow in NRO titled "Taking Back the Market By Force", Kudlow called for the US to attack Iraq because "a lack of decisive follow-through in the global war on terrorism is the single biggest problem facing the stock market and the nation today."
Kudlow was one of 250 economic experts to sign an open letter dated February 12, 2003 endorsing George W. Bush's policies on economic growth and jobs.
John Wagnon
your need to call our host a mental midget suggests that you don't have a very strong argument to make.
as for the double digit interest rates during the carter administration...any economist worth his or her salt knows that the problems with our economy were om part, a decade or more in the making...largely the result of Lyndon Johnson's refusal to raise taxes to support the war in Vietnam and Johnson's desire to at the same time continue high gov spending in non defense areas that were his bread and butter.
sound familiar?
please try to respond to these points like a gentleman instead of issuing insults...otherwise you discredit your conservative credentials.
Further to my 12:51 comment above ...
I neglected to click on the "read more", else I'd have added that a major element in the housing boom was remarkable increase, from 1993 on, in the home ownership rate among the younger age cohorts (under-25, 25 to 29, and 30 to 34). I suspect that the only reason CR's graph of average household size stops declining around 1990 is that family sizes were increasing in the trailing edge of the baby boom, and adult immigrants starting and growing families were entering the country.
At bubble peak, the home ownership rate among the younger age cohorts had reached a record level, even higher than its previous peak in the last hurrah days of the late 1970s' boom.
Those who think happy days will soon be here again in the housing market should contemplate that during the latter days of the early-90s slump, ownership among the younger set was at its lows for modern times, and there was no glut of supply. Now we have the exact opposite.
Bernanke should have stepped in this morning in Japan! NIKKEI down!
You missed pointing out the key reason Kudlow was wrong... because he wanted to be wrong.
This, I think, (from CR's 2005 post) is what woke me up in 2005:
"The number of buyers falling into this category in any given month is unclear. But a California home builder recently got a sense when he sought to answer this question: How many of the potential buyers of his houses could still afford them if interest rates went up even a little?
To find out, the builder conducted a little experiment.
His firm's preferred lender had pre-qualified 90 potential buyers for a group of new houses. Since the houses wouldn't be ready for another six months, the builder tightened the loan criteria. He didn't want buyers to sign up for a house and then get frightened into canceling by rising rates.
He raised the threshold from a fully variable loan, the easiest to get since it immediately moves upward when rates increase, to a mortgage that was fixed for the first three years. That would shield buyers from rate jumps for at least a little while, but it's also more expensive.
Under the higher threshold, only about 15 of the buyers still qualified."
I love this blog. I love the bloggers. I have only one complaint: they can analyze the heck out pretty much anything, with great honesty but It REALLY bugs me that people like this, who have a better grasp on our economy than our academics and our political hacks -- are not running our economy, just commenting on it.
They educate us, and in the ideal world we take that knowledge and use it at the ballot box, but we all know how useful that device has become.
CR, Tanta, please take a weeklong retreat. Talk and take notes and build a better economy. Come back and show us what it looks like? Please.
Krudlow is a TV pundihack who is paid to be bullish, I suspect, in all cases. Why even speculate on why he is almost always wrong? He is a fool; that explains it without further ado.
There are three creatures who absolutely cannot be embarrassed: dogs, economists, and Republicans. Worry not about Kudlow, who is not just an economist but a Republican too. There's nothing you can say that will cause him to feel ashamed.
What rent-to-own said !!!
Why was Kudlow so Wrong?
That is easy. Because he is a right wing corporate tool with about as much analytical capability as most right wing pundits seem to posses. The fact that guys like that have a show on the TeeVee really tells you everything that you need to know about how deeply in trouble our entire American society is in both economics and politics.
When tools for power like that are elevated to positions of prominence and have that loud of a voice it is evidence that we are at or near end game for this system and it is becoming clear that our democracy is merely a veneer that is wearing thin.
I saw an article he penned on CNBC a few days back that opined that the market was recovering from mid march to mid May due to a "McCain Surge" and it has been tanking recently due to the fact that the market is now pricing in an Obama primary victory. I mean C'mon....how can this guy get paid millions of dollars to spew forth analysis like this?
Apropos population and depression:
Famine killed 7 million people in USA
why are you so apologetic? kudlow is always wrong. he's a shill.
"Kudlow will be the ultimate contrarian indicator. When he capitulates, it'll be time to back up the truck."
There was a TGBBGDDD (The Great Big Bell goes Ding, Ding, Ding) moment on Friday when CNBC ran its "Special Report: The Crude Oil Crisis."
When you look at the charts with an unjaundiced eye, you see the reversals in, oh, 28 out of 30 of the largest basic materials stocks. Tons of bearish engulfings, a lovely inside day last week to get short.
"public apparently doesn't want to hear that they are all doomed."
No one wants to hear doom and gloom all the time. You have to parse the guest messages. With a DVR, you can watch in 10-15 minutes when he has a value add guest. At least Kudlow has Shilling on and gave him credit for his call. He's a self admitted pundit with limited economic knowledge. He admits this sometimes. He definitely spews more than his knowledge supports. He had a professor guest on that boldly told him on air that he had no idea what he was talking about.
And, oh, another anecdotal data point about sentiment. More Ben Steinery:
EVERYBODY'S BUSINESS; Running Out of Fuel, But Not Out of Ideas - NY Times
CNBC knows which side their bread is buttered on. GE almost pulled the plug on them at the bottom of the Nascrash in 2002.
Their paychecks depend on them rebutting the bearish case. I think I'd probably channel the mothership pretty hard too in that case.
Kudlow owes the investing community a profound apology for being so wrong on everything from gold, oil, real estate, stocks, dollar, inflation and almost anything to do with economics and finance. The real question is; should anyone really keep a job when they are consistently wrong, and so pig headed to not even realize they are incompetent.
CNBC should be ashamed to let this moron have his own program. To have someone so incompetent as Kudlow spew his political and financial crap out day after day, flies in the face of what CNBC should be trying to do, which is giving accurate no spin financial information.
"Apropos population and depression:"
C'mon, this is from Pravda, and not the contemporary American Fox News version either, but the original Soviet government propaganda organ. You know, the folks who elevated the peddling of official horseshit to a high art form?
"Japan's population pyramid is collapsing from the bottom. There are ~HALF the number of kids 0-18 there than when I was first FOB there in 1992.
Troy | 05.25.08 - 10:14 pm |"
They might consider the dirty "I" word.
"There are three creatures who absolutely cannot be embarrassed: dogs, economists, and Republicans."
The most hilariously relevant comment I've seen in quite a while. I think I'd add Hillary to the list, though.
" BreakOut writes:
"Japan's population pyramid is collapsing from the bottom. There are ~HALF the number of kids 0-18 there than when I was first FOB there in 1992.
Troy | 05.25.08 - 10:14 pm |"
They might consider the dirty "I" word.
BreakOut | 05.26.08 - 9:56 am | # "
Interesting article in the NY Times addresses growing shortage of Japanese engineers. Because of Japanese cultural prejudices, Japan is responding by establishing engineering groups in other countries rather than bringing engineers to Japan.
They'll never embrace the "I" word. Not even when the streets are half-empty.
High-Tech Japan Running Out of Engineers - NY Times
The source of Kudlow's wrongness was that he incorrectly characterized the housing construction market as an 'efficient market'. I agree with the others that said he was just trying to tell people what they wanted to hear.
It's Memorial Day -- spare a moment for those who put themselves in service to our country and paid the ultimate.
Whether the wars were right or wrong or meaningful or meaningless, they swore to do what was asked of them, and they did.
And who is sitting at 0.0? Pitcairn Island. So much for the argument about extremes.
--Well, they're at zero only because they're not counting all the prison guards that that they've had to bring in.
Pitcairn sexual assault trial of 2004 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Famine killed 7 million people in USA
That article brings back horrible memories of being a young unemployed father of five back in 1932 when the cart was still rolling by every day:
"Bring out yer dead!"
Japan's population pyramid is collapsing from the bottom. There are ~HALF the number of kids 0-18 there than when I was first FOB there in 1992.
That's because so many people starved to death during the Lost Decade.
SEC has begun looking into Moody's: SEC chairman
SEC probing main credit rating agencies
| Reuters
That's nice but they might want to check into greed and the worlds oldest profession to get a little insight.
I LOVE ACCOUNTABILITY!!!
Thank you, Thank you, Thank you!!!!!
Other people love it too..
Now if we can ever get a TV show or a documentary to put up all the wrong prognosticatins over the years to really hold people accountable.
Think of all the good stuff from,
Kudlow
Cramer
Stein
Wesbury
Bill Chamberlin (local to SD)
Abbey Cohen
Dick Bove
Don Luskin
Bernanke
Paulson
Greenspan
Bush
on and on and on.....
It would be awesome!
What Yalt said.
Kudlow's own numbers failed to support his argument, making it kind of amusing that in the same breath he accused others of "shallow analysis."
Where is Tanta?
Average Joe! Those are my boys.
Chuckles wrotes:
There are three creatures who absolutely cannot be embarrassed: dogs, economists, and Republicans. ...
Chuckles | 05.26.08 - 5:06 am | #
and
Republicans Are Traitors has written similarly...
hey guys i m as angry with the current crop of republicans as anyone. but your blanket approach isn't best.
there are good and honorable republicans out there...off the top i'd say hagel, lugar, specter, whitehouse...just to name a few.
if i have anger towards republicans in general it is that they accepted the neo-con financial and military liars to live amongst them.
the neo-cons are not republicans
i read a couple of bios last night about kudlow. he has an impressive resume.
kinda cant help but think he often knew better than the nonsense he spewed forth but instead maybe decided to trade truth for money?
at one point he was assistant director of OMB, worked as a dc reporter for cnn and was on a board with freddie mac...all at the same time.
(were these sweetheart gigs?)
also did a stint with federal reserve in the open market operations section.
what is the difference between a prostitute and a shill?
answer...the prostitute delivers as promised and is more honorable than the shill who frequently sells nothing more than snake oil.
It's worse than that. I don't think Kudlow even did a back-of-the-envelope calculation. I think he just compared the two numbers and saw that one had (in his estimation) not really grown while the other had grown quite a bit.
The mistake Kudlow made is in comparing the flow of one item with stock in another. Start by supposing (just to make it simpler) that he had been correct about housing starts not increasing over the last 30+ years while the number of households has increased greatly. So what? Total households represents the summation of all past increases/decreases to one parameter, while housing starts is the yearly gross increment added to another parameter. He compared the two as if this provides useful information on supply and demand.
I don't know much about this guy but I can see that his intellect is not impressive.
duh, the big boys are talking happy and ignoring the facts SO THEY CAN GET THE LITTLE LOSERS TO BUY THE STOCK THEY ARE DUMPING BEFORE THE MARKET CORRECTS TO REALITY probably in August. I have written letter after letter to Kudlow, I remember when he was still touting Thornburg Mortgage when they were tanking. HE IS NOT AN IDIOT HE IS LIKE THE ENRON BIGWIGS WHO PULLED ALL THEIR MONEY OUT AND LEFT THE LITTLE GUYS HOLDING THE EMPTY BAG............scum scum scum
"what is the difference between
a prostitute and a shill?"
You are slightly less likely to get
AIDS by associating with a shill.
U.S. Population: A Second Analysis
1900 76
1910 92
1920 106
1930 123
1940 132
1950 151
"We don't do body count" - General Tommy Franks of U.S. Central Command
mock turtle - sheldon whitehouse is NOT a republican. arlen specter has shown himself to be a coward over and over again.
I have a tremendous amount of respect for Hagel.
But I think it says a lot that you could only find 4 Republicans worthy of praise, and one of them is a Democrat!
There are plenty of democrats deserving of opprobrium . . . Joe Lieberman comes readily to mind. But with the GOP, the entire party is rotten to the corps. The miracle is that there are still a few good apples in the bunch.
corps = core. Must be Memorial Day on the brain.
DON'T much like my republicans in congress but love the bush cheney duo ----6 years no bombing on our soil ----we are so fat with our freedom now aren't we, bush and cheney don't get us bombed every year and a half like the impeached rapist did,
and the democrat clowns in congress have the LOWEST APPROVALS IN HISTORY, NOW THAT IS A HARD THING TO DO WITH ALL THE IDIOTS THAT HAVE SERVED BUT THEY TRULY ARE THE DUMBEST.............
and lots of love out to the men and women this memorial day who volunteered to take this battle to the ground it belongs on, not new york and the uss cole..........
these men and woman are not being forced to fight NO MATTER HOW MANY TIMES THE dems and liberal media scream it,
how demeaning for the military that risks their lives for those blowhards that scream they are idiots and being forced to fight........
mccain has two sons over there and hussain and the missus can't spell - fight for this nation---
bush and cheney will be redeemed like reagan was when they are gone, (except for keeping that idiot hedge fund creep greenspan around, we couldn't get him to speak when he was in office and now he is gone we can't shut him up)
and slick willie is getting the rapist, racist, idiot felon reputation he deserves, don't you love it, that white trash couple are the gift that keeps on giving and the 2 year senator that thinks we have 57 states is going nowhere...........
minor typo:
"So, unless Kudlow is arguing for a significant further reduction in housing size..."
Should be:
"So, unless Kudlow is arguing for a significant further reduction in household size..."