20 sales of existing homes April 2007.
4 sales of existing homes April 2008.
One of those homes sold for 2.5 million.
Looking around, I have yet to see one "sold" sign on the houses for sale this year. They were everywhere last year.
My realtor friend tells me that the few offers being made right now are all "contingent" on the buyers home being sold. And thus the market depends on three parties agreeing on two prices. More troublesome is finding financing for two homes in this market.
My realtor friend tells me that the few offers being made right now are all "contingent" on the buyers home being sold. And thus the market depends on three parties agreeing on two prices.
So B offers to buy A's house, contingent on selling his own.
C agrees to buy B's house, contingent on selling his own.
D agrees to buy C's house, contingent on selling his own.
And so on. Eventually, somebody without a house to sell is required to make this whole thing work. And often, that person is a renter.
But, but El Rushbo said on his radio program today, the 3% "unexpected" increase in April shows that housing is recovering and that all is fine with the economy. then there are all the "analysts" on bloomberg radio and TV who just know everything will pick up in the 3rd quarter. This from an all knowing group who did not forsee the housing bubble, credit crisi, the spike in commodities, whew...
"There is a fear the economy is in a recession or going into one and people may find their jobs in jeopardy," said David Coard, head of fixed-income sales and trading at The Williams Capital Group in New York.
"When you talk to people on the street they seem to be really being squeezed at the pump and the supermarket while their income isn't keeping up."
The index has dropped by almost half since last July, when housing market troubles triggered the most severe credit crisis in at least a decade.
At the same time, inflation expectations rose to an all-time high 7.7 percent, well above April's 6.8 percent.
The pain was felt across the board, with consumers worried about both what is happening now and what might be to come. The present situation index dropped to 74.4 from 81.9, while the expectations barometer dived to 45.7 from 50.0.
Not wanting to hijack the thread, but I will add CR to my list of contrarian indicators. In January and March, CR published stock market futures at the very market bottoms. This weekend, CR published a sequel about high oil prices, and there they immediately start to turn down. Amazing.
It seems if CR starts talking about areas outside of RE, this is a near-perfect contrarian indicator. I hope he keeps it up.
Rush built his national audience largely by harping on the Clinton's various real and imagined transgressions Whitewater, Lewinsky, Vince Foster, the pardons, etc. all stories that had no direct, personal impact on the lives of his listeners. Whether he was spewing crap or truth couldn't be measured by those tuning in; naturally, a Dittohead would take what he said at face value.
Now, Rush is venturing into somewhat more delicate territory. I'm sure there are more than a few diehard Dittoheads who are on the verge of losing their homes, or who can't sell their home in order to take a new job, or who've lost their jobs or had their hours substantially reduced. Listening to some gasbag on the radio tell you that things are fine when your own experience is screaming something very different isn't conducive to wearing your "Rush is Right" t-shirt to the family picnic where you tell your relatives you've had to move back into your mom's house.
"Listening to some gasbag on the radio tell you that things are fine when your own experience is screaming something very different isn't conducive to wearing your "Rush is Right" t-shirt to the family picnic where you tell your relatives you've had to move back into your mom's house."
People who listen to guys like Rush really aren't paying attention to what's going on around them. When they start paying attention to reality -- because it's given them an uppercut to the jaw -- they stop listening to Rush.
This recession is going to leave a mark...I suspect we are looking at the next decade.
What no faith that The Chosen One will lead us to the Promised Land?
Actually, the scary thing is that the only people that understand the true depths of our problems may be the damn Neo-Cons; our standard of living requires either true American hegemony (e.g. post WWII to Vietnam) or unprecedented leveraging (post 1980 until the tap ran out last year). When have not been these conditions been satisfied? Oh, the 1970s and today.
"Optimistic-Joe writes:
Not wanting to hijack the thread, but I will add CR to my list of contrarian indicators... This weekend, CR published a sequel about high oil prices, and there they immediately start to turn down. Amazing.
It seems if CR starts talking about areas outside of RE, this is a near-perfect contrarian indicator. I hope he keeps it up."
That has to be most jack-a@@ed comment I've seen in a long time. And I've seen a lot recently.
Even slight familiarity with the size of dollar flows involved will tell you that the recent price spike will have critical short-term impact on the economy.
CR only highlighted the debate around the subject, which had hit a high volume level. All this indicates that CR probably doesn't live under a rock.
"That has to be most jack-a@@ed comment I've seen in a long time. And I've seen a lot recently."
O-Joe's a troll. If housing looks bad, he says it s a good time to buy and declares he'll buy a house this year. When the talk is about high gas prices, he says it'll pass and claim he's going to buy an SUV this week.
He's better mannered than Sebastian, but don't take him seriously. Or pay attention at all.
Two questions for anyone who may have the answers:
1.If a lender takes back a new home from a builder, either by deed-in-lieu or by foreclosure, and this home is later sold by the bank is it still being counted as a new home sale ?
2.Another related question, if the bank forecloses on a builder, are the foreclosed houses counted as new home sales ?
You all might be interested in this. Home builders are making liberal use of the down payment assistance programs. Essentially giving 100% loans and throwing in up to $5K on top of that to cover closing costs and who knows whatever else. I know of a couple of cases in which the extra cash on the back end was used to pay off judgements and/or collections in order to meet FHA requirements.
Keep in mind that these are FHA loans, i.e. insured by the government. As we ponder a bailout, we add fuel to the fire.
CLEVELAND SPRING FLING HISTORY Appears to be weakening with each year
2003\tJanuary to October = 10 months
2004\tMarch to September = 6 months
2005\tMarch to October = 7 month
2006\tMarch to July = 5 months
2007\tApril to July = 3 months
First
So the solution could be to drop interest rates for mortgages. Oops, that could be hard with mortgage rates held artificially low already.
CR
How high do you think 30 yr mortgage rates can get one year out?
No spring this year? Sorry, my sneezing and watery eyes say differnt.
Classic, MSNBC just spit out this headline!!!
"Stocks end day up amid good housing news"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/
Thanks to all the financial DDT sprayed the past few years, it was a "silent spring."
Man 17% interest rates... I wish.
Instead we are all getting robbed.
Ulp. This recession is going to leave a mark.
For sure.
Now, we sure have to wonder how long it will take before the bottom heaves a dead sigh, and troves into sight.
I suspect we are looking at the next decade.
So, buckle up, ignore the mainstream media, and get ready for yet another episode of down we go!
Housing looks to be moribund through this summer, with yet another push for salvation this fall and winter, followed by another dismal spring.
So bye bye ms american pie,
awww, you know the rest.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I just checked my home sale info for my zip code.
20 sales of existing homes April 2007.
4 sales of existing homes April 2008.
One of those homes sold for 2.5 million.
Looking around, I have yet to see one "sold" sign on the houses for sale this year. They were everywhere last year.
My realtor friend tells me that the few offers being made right now are all "contingent" on the buyers home being sold. And thus the market depends on three parties agreeing on two prices. More troublesome is finding financing for two homes in this market.
Silent Spring indeed.
Once again, the 2008 spring selling season has never really started.
It's just starting a little late this year because of global climate change.
Why on earth would SPF have gotten an injection?
It was already in violation of its covenants and probably could've been picked up in BK for pennies.
What happened to the red in the lower chart?
metabear,
The red's for 2008, so it only goes up to April.
My realtor friend tells me that the few offers being made right now are all "contingent" on the buyers home being sold. And thus the market depends on three parties agreeing on two prices.
So B offers to buy A's house, contingent on selling his own.
C agrees to buy B's house, contingent on selling his own.
D agrees to buy C's house, contingent on selling his own.
And so on. Eventually, somebody without a house to sell is required to make this whole thing work. And often, that person is a renter.
Typo alert: previous, not pervious
Ministry of Truth, That MSNBC headline is a classic!
"Stocks end day up amid good housing news"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/
But, but El Rushbo said on his radio program today, the 3% "unexpected" increase in April shows that housing is recovering and that all is fine with the economy. then there are all the "analysts" on bloomberg radio and TV who just know everything will pick up in the 3rd quarter. This from an all knowing group who did not forsee the housing bubble, credit crisi, the spike in commodities, whew...
"There is a fear the economy is in a recession or going into one and people may find their jobs in jeopardy," said David Coard, head of fixed-income sales and trading at The Williams Capital Group in New York.
"When you talk to people on the street they seem to be really being squeezed at the pump and the supermarket while their income isn't keeping up."
The index has dropped by almost half since last July, when housing market troubles triggered the most severe credit crisis in at least a decade.
At the same time, inflation expectations rose to an all-time high 7.7 percent, well above April's 6.8 percent.
The pain was felt across the board, with consumers worried about both what is happening now and what might be to come. The present situation index dropped to 74.4 from 81.9, while the expectations barometer dived to 45.7 from 50.0.
Consumer confidence hits 16-year low in May
| Reuters
With Big Bone Ben braking it off in their asses almost assures a lost decade.
Not wanting to hijack the thread, but I will add CR to my list of contrarian indicators. In January and March, CR published stock market futures at the very market bottoms. This weekend, CR published a sequel about high oil prices, and there they immediately start to turn down. Amazing.
It seems if CR starts talking about areas outside of RE, this is a near-perfect contrarian indicator. I hope he keeps it up.
Thanks!
O-Joe
Rush built his national audience largely by harping on the Clinton's various real and imagined transgressions Whitewater, Lewinsky, Vince Foster, the pardons, etc. all stories that had no direct, personal impact on the lives of his listeners. Whether he was spewing crap or truth couldn't be measured by those tuning in; naturally, a Dittohead would take what he said at face value.
Now, Rush is venturing into somewhat more delicate territory. I'm sure there are more than a few diehard Dittoheads who are on the verge of losing their homes, or who can't sell their home in order to take a new job, or who've lost their jobs or had their hours substantially reduced. Listening to some gasbag on the radio tell you that things are fine when your own experience is screaming something very different isn't conducive to wearing your "Rush is Right" t-shirt to the family picnic where you tell your relatives you've had to move back into your mom's house.
--
"No Spring in 2008"
You are right in more ways than you think, CR. We still have the winter weather in the surrounding areas. What global warming?
Jas
--
BTW, CR, do you now think that we could fall below 400K annual rate in New Home Sales for SFH?
Jas
CR, thanks for the great charts! That first one evokes the saying that a picture can say a thousand words. Chilling!
ya...in the early eighties sll that was needed was some solid morgage rate cuts. Of course kept cutting them over the course of the next 25 years.
Maybe we should do that strategy again.
"Listening to some gasbag on the radio tell you that things are fine when your own experience is screaming something very different isn't conducive to wearing your "Rush is Right" t-shirt to the family picnic where you tell your relatives you've had to move back into your mom's house."
People who listen to guys like Rush really aren't paying attention to what's going on around them. When they start paying attention to reality -- because it's given them an uppercut to the jaw -- they stop listening to Rush.
Jas Jain writes:
BTW, CR, do you now think that we could fall below 400K annual rate in New Home Sales for SFH?
Jas
Jas Jain
As usual I will take the opposite side of the trade than Jas and buy a house this year. Well, one of us will be right.
O-Joe
You live in Phoenix and are gonna buy a new house with gas prices the way they are?
You really are beyond hope.
AllenM writes:
This recession is going to leave a mark...I suspect we are looking at the next decade.
What no faith that The Chosen One will lead us to the Promised Land?
Actually, the scary thing is that the only people that understand the true depths of our problems may be the damn Neo-Cons; our standard of living requires either true American hegemony (e.g. post WWII to Vietnam) or unprecedented leveraging (post 1980 until the tap ran out last year). When have not been these conditions been satisfied? Oh, the 1970s and today.
"Optimistic-Joe writes:
Not wanting to hijack the thread, but I will add CR to my list of contrarian indicators... This weekend, CR published a sequel about high oil prices, and there they immediately start to turn down. Amazing.
It seems if CR starts talking about areas outside of RE, this is a near-perfect contrarian indicator. I hope he keeps it up."
That has to be most jack-a@@ed comment I've seen in a long time. And I've seen a lot recently.
Even slight familiarity with the size of dollar flows involved will tell you that the recent price spike will have critical short-term impact on the economy.
CR only highlighted the debate around the subject, which had hit a high volume level. All this indicates that CR probably doesn't live under a rock.
"That has to be most jack-a@@ed comment I've seen in a long time. And I've seen a lot recently."
O-Joe's a troll. If housing looks bad, he says it s a good time to buy and declares he'll buy a house this year. When the talk is about high gas prices, he says it'll pass and claim he's going to buy an SUV this week.
He's better mannered than Sebastian, but don't take him seriously. Or pay attention at all.
It looks like a bottom...time to buy before it's too late!!! According to the graph, there will be a bounce. Yehaw!
Two questions for anyone who may have the answers:
1.If a lender takes back a new home from a builder, either by deed-in-lieu or by foreclosure, and this home is later sold by the bank is it still being counted as a new home sale ?
2.Another related question, if the bank forecloses on a builder, are the foreclosed houses counted as new home sales ?
"That has to be most jack-a@@ed comment I've seen in a long time. And I've seen a lot recently."
Really? You are going to let Paulson off the hook that easily?
You all might be interested in this. Home builders are making liberal use of the down payment assistance programs. Essentially giving 100% loans and throwing in up to $5K on top of that to cover closing costs and who knows whatever else. I know of a couple of cases in which the extra cash on the back end was used to pay off judgements and/or collections in order to meet FHA requirements.
Keep in mind that these are FHA loans, i.e. insured by the government. As we ponder a bailout, we add fuel to the fire.
Seeing the same lack of spring bounce in the San Fernando Valley condo market.
All of the spring uptick activity is in the single family home market.
CLEVELAND SPRING FLING HISTORY Appears to be weakening with each year
2003\tJanuary to October = 10 months
2004\tMarch to September = 6 months
2005\tMarch to October = 7 month
2006\tMarch to July = 5 months
2007\tApril to July = 3 months