CR,

Posts set on rapid-fire today, huh?

Anyway, I just want to thank both Tanta and CR for this wonderful blog...

o place to run no place to hide

imf selling gold so that even pm and related commodities will not provide a haven.

Wasn't it the late Sen Dirkson who once said, "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon it starts to add up to real money."

How does that square with the notion that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent?

Just wondering...

for me l=k

and

Cooking ramen in my percolator...you are right on, thanks to CR and Tanta for a great great blog

hope people are hitting the tip jar now and the

Does this mean that the confessional is still open?

wtf is 'out of footprint?'

KeyCorp is a regional bank. "Out of footprint" means outside of their region.

Kind of like if you lived in California and speculated on property in Florida or Arizona. Stuff no sane person would do.

ABK and WB at 52-week lows. MBI and BAC working on it...

P.S. Hey CR, is Ambac writing down a quarter-billion in CDO exposure not even news anymore?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will make public as early as June several enforcement cases involving subprime mortgage-related investigations, two sources familiar with the probes told Reuters on Wednesday.

Some U.S. SEC subprime probes nearing end -sources
| Reuters

A little fine, a slap on the wrist then back to ripping off the American public and investors, just like after the dot boom bubble.
Bank on it.

Kudos to bloomberg for the great headline

Good to see an honest headline from the MSM on occasion anyway

KeyCorp is a regional bank. "Out of footprint" means outside of their region.

Kind of like if you lived in California and speculated on property in Florida or Arizona. Stuff no sane person would do.

Isn't that exactly what a bank does everytime they purchase a securitized investment for their portfolio?

Dispersion of risk or creation of correlation were none previously existed....what ever you want to call it...securitization is IB fee generating BS.

Greedy and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

--Dean Wormer

The whole Bloomberg article is interesting. This was my favorite comment:

Banks are concluding that they must unload foreclosed properties to get the properties off their books, said Jeff Davis, an analyst at FTN Midwest Securities in Nashville. Davis rates KeyCorp ``neutral.''

We're getting to the point where reality is sinking in and the sellers are cutting prices,'' Davis said.The deeper we go into the year, the more foreclosed properties trading hands will impact the data.''

Another good comment is in there about halving the dividends. Eventually, this We-have-to-pay-a-dividend stupidity is going to stop. It will probably stop when they can't sell any more stock.

CR, how do you think credit unions will fare in this downturn, vis-a-vis traditional banks?
Thanks

Nemo said: P.S. Hey CR, is Ambac writing down a quarter-billion in CDO exposure not even news anymore?

Unless it's a full billion, we're just not interested anymore.

Off topic, but Fed Governor Mishkin announced his resignation effective August.

Rats and sinking ships come to mind.

Finally, an article calling a spade a spade, that is, the banks have been delusional.

I've been watching a couple properties here that can only be bank owned. After numerous teeny tiny price drops they are now approaching what they sold for one and a half years ago. An individual owner would have given up on these elephants months ago and walked.

The bank could have sold them last summer with a hefty price drop and maybe come close to breaking even.

Now, compared to current asking prices, they look like total turds on the MLS.

The banks are astoundingly bad at handling money.

CR, how do you think credit unions will fare in this downturn, vis-a-vis traditional banks?

Saw something about 2nd mortgage holders: Navy FED CU squeaked into the top ten, the rest were banks. I'm still trying to figure out if that has significance.

--
"Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide." – John Adams, 2nd President of the United States

Success in a democracy depends upon breeding dopes and Bankrupters know it well! As a result, American democracy has been turned into the rule of the Debt Pushers.

Mounting evidence that born-and-bred American dopes never understood the evil nature of the US econo-political in promoting and pushing debt, especially, for consumption. Solutions to all the economic problems, ever since Greenspan got into the game, have been to push more debt.

I think that suicide watch for the American econo-political system is in order. The current debt crisis will take the ultimate toll on the system and Bankrupters would run for their lives.

Jas

2008 - the kitchen sink year.
2009 - the bathtub year.

Is KeyCorp saying they only lent to homebuilders, no CRE?

Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining.

Keycorp uses "footprint" to mean the 13 states in which they have branches and "community banking" (retail and small business) activities. They are strongest in the Midwest and NY state (mostly upstate, not NYC).

As of 3/31/08, they had $19 billion of real estate loans, of which $8.5 billion was for construction and $10.5 billion was for mortgage.

Heaviest concentrations were in owner-occupied residential (30.5%), non-owner-occupied residential (19.2%), retail (12.9%), and multi-family (12.2%). However, a large share of these loans was not in the footprint but in the West.

They take in deposits in their 13-state footprint. But they made a lot of real estate loans out West.

When your home base is Cleveland, you can't make a living lending at home.

New York Community Bancorp looks in a good shape from its stock performance.

"Miskin leaving the Fed after just a year and a half!!!"

Oh, so I assume he's going back to the wonderful land of Oz, to look for the wizard. Never mind. I am confusing him with those happy little Munchkins.

--
Mishkin was supposed to be one of "the three ring leaders at the Fed" together with Kohn and Burn-ass-ke.

We have seen lot of turnover at the Fed during the past 2.5 years. Trouble ahad?

Jas

"Inflation expectations have remained reasonably well anchored so far, which is encouraging," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Gary Stern told the Eau Claire, Wisconsin Chamber of Commerce in a speech.

REFILE-UPDATE 2-Rate hikes key to containing inflation-Stern
| Reuters

Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, will raise prices the most in the company's 111- year history because of surging costs for energy and raw materials used to make Styrofoam, pesticides and plastics.

The ``unparalleled'' increases of as much as 20 percent on all of Dow's 3,200 products are needed after a 42 percent jump in first-quarter spending on raw materials and energy, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris said today. The increases take effect June 1, the company said in a statement.

Dow Raising Prices Most Ever as Energy Costs Surge (Update4) - Bloomberg.com

OK, Gary what ever you say.

Eli Broad (KB Home) just gave a blistering and honest interview on Bloomberg.

Said we are in a recession.

Home prices will fall another 10% overall.

This will take years to work through.

Some home markets won't recover until 2011 or later.

Says investors should be in cash, energy, foreign stocks, multinationals

Qualified the home builder stocks saying "If you want to be in HB's then....."

Days of double digit returns are over....returns will be in low single digits.

Don't recall this kinda talk a year ago.

A late-day rally for those positioning for the upside surprise revision to Q1 GDP perhaps?

The chairman of a Senate oversight committee, Joseph Lieberman, has said he is considering legislation to place limits on large institutional investors in commodities markets, which have posted record prices this year in agricultural products and oil. The chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee said that the legislation would be aimed at speculators and other investors who use commodities as a way to hedge against swings in other investment instruments like stocks and the dollar.

This is hillarious and a great way to push more money out of the country. Of course that might be there motiivation! They want a lower dollar and they are intent on getting it. "Take your money and go trade futures on the Dubai market" is the message.

Of course a lower dollar will mean even higher oil prices, but hey - at least they won't be trading on our exchanges, only on our fuel pumps!

And of course, SEBasstion doesn't care because he only buys "domestic".... which might be true of services, but not true of "goods".

Looking foward to the crazy antics of our next adminstration as they continue to stand in the way of the rules and thus cause everyone, including the undeserving, much pain.

Regionals financials crumbling...and Mishkin to walk away...

Priceless.

Cheers,

A late-day rally for those positioning for the upside surprise revision to Q1 GDP perhaps?

This will drive oil up and crush the markets, catch 22.

The ``unparalleled'' increases of as much as 20 percent on all of Dow's 3,200 products are needed after a 42 percent jump in first-quarter spending on raw materials and energy, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris said today. The increases take effect June 1, the company said in a statement.

That's what dryfly did all day today - getting surcharges ready to go out June 1.

To the moon Alice to the moon...

i> Alec writes:
Is KeyCorp saying they only lent to homebuilders, no CRE?

Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining.
Alec | 05.28.08 - 2:29 pm | #

Hmmmm, being in the industrial heartland, I wonder if they back up & fund any PEs, hedge funds or SIVs? Naw... never - everything is on book and perfectly transparent. And even if they did have a tiny weeny SIV or two those could never come back on the books to haunt them right?

None of these regionals would be as stupid as the big city IBs in doing that kind of nonsense, right, right?

I have a feeling there is going to be more than one act in this play.

puravidavid writes:

Wasn't it the late Sen Dirkson who once said, "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon it starts to add up to real money."

The correct version of Dirksen's oft-misquoted line is: "A billion here and a billion there, and pretty soon I'll have real PAC money."

1.3% Is very small... I expect this to
increase....

They also did a bunch of student loans - especially law schools. i bet those are looking pretty bad right now too

I think that suicide watch for the American econo-political system is in order. The current debt crisis will take the ultimate toll on the system and Bankrupters would run for their lives.
Jas
Jas Jain

Jas,
You forgot to mention your "next year" disclaimer, which can be traced back online to at least 2004.
O-Joe

If the (outside of RE) CR contra-indicator still works, we need to go long bank stocks asap here.
O-Joe

@ barely

What's 2010? Copper plumbing and fixtures?

Key Bank was involved in two of the deals I worked on (not real estate deals). I was not impressed in either case.

I have had this happen before with other companies. Every time I've come away asking "How do you run a company like this" or "I can't figure out how they make money", it turned out they were losing a lot of money then or soon afterward.

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