I noticed that BSC had writedowns of only 2.6B. Does that mean that the roughly 30B that the FED has backstopped will not count towards the final total?
So by consensus estimates...we are at about the halfway point for writedowns.
George Bailey brought his bank back to solvency without a government bailout.....I think how he did it was to put momma dollar and pappa dollar together into a basket and put them into the vault....and that was before Viagra...
FFDIC:
That's what I don't get. "B-52" Ben says he doesn't forsee any more banks(I guess that includes commercial and investment) going belly up, yet we have been hearing stories about the FDIC hiring. It doesn't make any sense. Then again, the market rose today because Ben said everything is contained, when he has been saying that for a year. Don't the markets have any kind of long term memory?
a few weeks ago I looked at a house. then came back a few days later to say I wanted to bid on it. the realtor is the owner. house was priced at $550k. So i wanted to do a formal bid but he did not have paperwork so verbally offered $475k. He turned it down saying needed bank pre-approval. so about a week later i called up and said I had bank pre-approval and told him I got it and he then said $530K.
It ended there.
Then 2 weeks later called up saying I would like to put a new formal bid in writing and have the new pre-approval. The man snapped and said he wanted $530k min and asked what do i offer over the phone. I said i would like to do this in writing since I have the approval with the new higher bid. he then said you probably are not bidding much more anyway and he wanted $530K min. Again I said would like to just do a formal bid in writing and it was higher and that he could do whatever he likes with the bid. Also said that i was a renter and had no house to sell with an approval. He snapped back and said $530k min and i am a realtor and know what i am doing. then i asked how long the house was on the market? (which i know is already 6-7 months) then he hung up on me.
I have some Susan B. Anthony dollars and and Susan is pretty "uncirculated" (read: disease free). I think she is even more valuable because she is not paper but some kind of metal....
I've been hearing more specifics on the terms of the Lehman deal. Pretty interesting stuff. They basically did the offer ain such a way as to engineer a massive short squeeze. UBS did the same.
I'm hearing the Street worked together to make both LEH and UBS 'hard to borrow' just in the nick of time.
There's a big difference between capital the bank has raised and capital the bank hopes to raise. Most of the capital reported there is from successful offering but there's some wishful thinking too.
The next question is will the banks be able to raise the next 200 billion to cover further write-offs? They've reached the limit with existing capital but there are more hits coming.
That is called market manipulation and not fair to people who made the right call on the stock.
Paulsen and bernanke have decided who the winners will be in a so called free market???
Re: George Bailey brought his bank back to solvency
Potter did very well without competition, and was able to expand his market share! The town expanded and benefited from trickle down supply side economies of efficiency, i.e, more booze, more whores, more dope and an infinite future of economic expansion from consumers trapped in a web of delight!
I'm glad to see all the capital getting invested in banks. As someone who borrows regularly to finance commercial real estate, I'm of the opinion that lending is a good place to be nowadays. 300-400 over Libor for 60%-65% loan to purchase price loans will turn out to be very profitable.
My advice is to find another house. Just because values are falling doesn't mean that any particular seller has to accept them. Find someone who wants to sell today and is willing to price his house accordingly.
He snapped back and said $530k min and i am a realtor and know what i am doing. then i asked how long the house was on the market? (which i know is already 6-7 months) then he hung up on me.
what would you do now?
sounds like somebody owns $530k on the house and can't negotiate.
no need to throw money away.
I'd move on.
as they say, there's a whole lot of houses in the sea
A Green Shoe, also known by its legal title as an "over-allotment option" (the only way it can be referred to in a prospectus), gives underwriters the right to sell additional shares in a registered securities offering if demand for the securities is in excess of the original amount offered. The Green Shoe can vary in size up to 15% of the original number of shares offered.
The Green Shoe option is popular because it is the only SEC-permitted means for an underwriter to stabilize the price of a new issue post-pricing. Issuers will sometimes not permit a greenshoe on a transaction when they have a very specific objective for the offering, and do not want the possibility of raising more money than planned. The term "Green Shoe" comes from a company founded in 1919 as Green Shoe Manufacturing Company, now called Stride Rite Corporation, which was the first company to permit this practice to be used in an offering.
Fencesitter, that agent, by law, has to present any written offer. His verbal $530,000 is not a valid offer, because all real estate offers, except month-to-month leases, are subject to the statute of frauds (must be in writing).
I would go directly to the seller and explain that the realtor refuses to take your written offer. Ask the seller if you can present it to him/her in person. You have nothing to lose.
n connection with the offering, SVB Financial Group has entered into convertible note hedge transactions with counterparties, one of which is an affiliate of the initial purchaser of the notes (the "hedge counterparties") and intends to use a portion of the net proceeds from this offering to pay for the cost of the convertible note hedge transactions. SVB Financial Group has also entered into separate warrant transactions with the hedge counterparties, which have partially offset the cost of the convertible note hedge transactions.
here is the story i can piece together.
Just check out info at the county clerk.
the homedebtor I mean owner bought the house in 1972 at $55k, but owes $300k mortgage with a $100k heloc a month later. $300k loan was taken out in 2005 and it is an option arm that resetted in 2006 so there is equity left. it's looks like we got a flipper that went flop.
Now the homedebtor will have to go to sleep tonight not knowing how much i was really going to bid.
what would you do now?
Fencesitter | 04.02.08 - 12:43 pm |
Personally I would walk. As a second option put in a written offer at your 475 or even a little less. Make it good for 30 days or so. Make the asshole seller realize after 30 you move on...If you are flexible in what to own you can drive a VERY hard bargin right now...
Chris
P.S. - Make sure a lawyer or agent puts in the written offer for you.
CNNMoney.com
Consumer bankruptcies jump 27%
Wednesday April 2, 12:15 pm ET
The number of individuals filing for bankruptcy surged during the first-quarter as American households struggled to stay on top of debt, according to a report released Wednesday.
The American Bankruptcy Institute said that consumer bankruptcy filings increased 27% nationwide in the first three months of the year, compared with the same period last year. In March alone, 86,165 individuals filed for consumer bankruptcy - a 13% increase over the 76,120 cases filed in February.
"Bankruptcies are rising due to the heavy burden of household debt and growing mortgage problems," said ABI Executive Director Samuel J. Gerdano. "We expect this trend to continue through 2008."
The ABI found that nearly 32% of all consumer bankruptcy cases were Chapter 13 filings, which is available to individuals with regular income and calls for budgeting some of the debtor's future earnings to pay off creditors.
Annualizing the march numbers that translates into over 1 million bankruptcies a year, or about 0.4% of the population once you exclude kids. This is even with a bankruptcy law that even Draco of Athens might find harsh. Yeah, somehow I think a recession is possible Ben.
"New orders for manufactured goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $5.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $424.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.3 percent January decrease. Shipments, down two of the last three months, decreased $9.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $423.0 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent January increase. Unfilled orders, up thirty-three of the last thirty-four months, increased $7.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $822.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.8 percent January increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.50, up from 5.38 in January. Inventories, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $538.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.3 percent January increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.27, up from 1.24 in January."
The nation's 8,534 banks and thrifts earned a combined $105.5 billion in 2007, a drop of 27 percent, or nearly $40 billion, from 2006.
That ended a string of six consecutive years of record earnings for the U.S. banking industry, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Fourth-quarter earnings fell to a 16-year low of $5.8 billion.
"It's no surprise to anyone that the second half of 2007 was a very tough period for the banking industry," said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair. "Fourth-quarter results were heavily influenced by a number of well-publicized write-downs by large banks."
That included the four largest banks doing business in Florida.
Fourth-quarter profits fell by 95 percent at Bank of America's, 98 percent at Wachovia, 99 percent at SunTrust and 80 percent at Regions Financial.
They combined for $8 billion less in profits during the final three months of the year.
Just over half of U.S. banks reported lower profits for the entire year.
Provisions for loan losses more than doubled to $68.2 million. The average return on assets, a key measure of earnings performance, fell to 0.86 percent from 1.28 percent a year earlier.
The FDIC had 76 banks on its "problem list" of troubled institutions, up from 50 over the year.
girlbear said: "George Bailey brought his bank back to solvency without a government bailout...."
Did he bring it back to solvency? Or just provide liquidity? The problem arose when Uncle Billy misplaced $5,000 that was actually in the bank's possession.
I would argue that George Bailey provided liquidity to an otherwise sound institution for which there was a desperate need in the community.
Others in the community recognized that need and provided further liquidity, with Sam Wainwright (playing the role of Ben Bernanke, using a strange backward time-warp) ultimately stepping-in to provide an amount of liquidity, up to $25,000, to guarantee that the institution didn't fail.
I see the current situation far more as a liquidity problem than a solvency problem. The IB's "lost" the money, just like Uncle Billy did, but that doesn't mean their business model is broken and they won't be able to make money in the future.
Re: The problem arose when Uncle Billy misplaced $5,000 that was actually in the bank's possession.
Wrong, the $5000 was being transfered. Potter was correct in suggesting that George was guilty of nonfeasance, because, The Baily Savings & Loan failed to deposit the money and account for the transaction and thus perform the duty fully.
However, Potter was guilty of Malfeasance, i.e, which denotes outright sabotage which causes intentional damage.
Banks need capital for sure. Bonus season will be here before you know it. The summer season at the Hamptons is going to be a bust. We can't have THAT again in 2009.
Re: I see the current situation far more as a liquidity problem than a solvency problem. The IB's "lost" the money, just like Uncle Billy did, but that doesn't mean their business model is broken and they won't be able to make money in the future.
sad truth said: "Wrong, the $5000 was being transfered. Potter was correct in suggesting that George was guilty of nonfeasance, because, The Baily Savings & Loan failed to deposit the money and account for the transaction and thus perform the duty fully."
When I said "bank's possession" I meant "the savings and loan's" possession as the institution that was in trouble.
Which is about as far as I want to stretch this analogy.
Did anyone from congress question Bernanke on the lavish bonuses to bankers in light of the need to raise capital and a fed bailout?
It seems to me, that the tens of billions in wall street bonuses in 2005 thru 2007 necessitated the need for a fed and government bailout of the financial system.
Angry Saver - It should be clear to everyone by now that BB doesn't care about the public interest. He only cared about fulfilling the FED mandate at any cost.
Anyone that would see Bear Stearns in the role of George Bailey is clearly out to lunch, because without a doubt, Bear Stearns is the epitome of Potter! Furthermore, I imagine you see Paulson as the supernatural agent of Clarence Odbody -- and the US taxpayers as the group of retards at the end of the film in the Bailey living room, who sing, "Auld Lang Syne".....
"Did anyone from congress question Bernanke on the lavish bonuses to bankers in light of the need to raise capital and a fed bailout?"
no.
there was very little critical said about BenB or the bailout.
most of it came from Senator Casey as I posted in the previous thread.
I have a post at 1118am about what Senator Casey (sp?) said and then around 1146 of what Paul said on the previous thread
most of the others were simply acknowledging that the bailout was probably necessary, and wondered if more were needed in the future... and then asked him what he thought THEY should do as Congress to help.
girlbear writes:
George Bailey brought his bank back to solvency without a government bailout.....I think how he did it was to put momma dollar and pappa dollar together into a basket and put them into the vault....and that was before Viagra...
girlbear | 04.02.08 - 12:38 pm | #
That explains everything & especially why that wouldn't work today.
See nowadays they aren't 'mommy & daddies' but rather 'domestic partners'... they don't make new dollars on their own but rather must 'adopt' from gov't & swf. Good thing that's still allowed or we'd all be 'screwed'.
The IB's wont make money because they haven't made money. Everything they thought was profit of the last 5 years was an illusion.
They profited off of lending money at lower rates than the risk allowed. This means short term profits at the expense of long term profits.
That is just beginning to unwind.
Fannie and Freddie are the only ones who are being allowed to lend money at below risk-adjusted levels. They will be the loss-leaders who will insure that no private company will be able to come into the market to compete (rates have to be much higher now to account for lending money to people facing a recession to buy assets that are depreciating at prices that are above their ability to afford).
This will go on as long as Fannie and Freddie survive. When they bust, well govt will save them and home lending will essentially be a cost of government (can you say airlines).
This is a disaster that will take years before we look back and realize what we did.
Japan took 10-20 years to realize they messed up. If they didn't know what to do then, why do we think we know what to do know (especially since everyone who is "solving" this problem are the same ones who didn't even see it when this blog was on its second year!)
Why would you buy the house from such a prick? If it was the only house available, I would still not buy it. I don't do business with people who behave like that, even if it was a good deal (which it does not sound like it is).
Under questioning from Robert Casey Jr., a Democratic Senator from Pennsylvania, Mr. Bernanke said Wednesday that the assets in the Feds collateral were investment grade, entirely current and performing. But, he was asked, what if BlackRock, which the Fed has hired to manage the collateral, concludes that they are worth far less than $30 billion? Can the Fed go back and ask for more?
Mr. Bernankes answer was brief: No, we cant.
And why did the Fed agree to put itself at risk?
In a prepared statement to the lawmakers, Mr. Bernanke emphasized that Bear was on the brink of collapsing, which he said could have unleashed a parade of horribles on the markets.
Below, an excerpt from his testimony about the Feds decision to intervene:
On March 13, Bear Stearns advised the Federal Reserve and other government agencies that its liquidity position had significantly deteriorated and that it would have to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy the next day unless alternative sources of funds became available. This news raised difficult questions of public policy. Normally, the market sorts out which companies survive and which fail, and that is as it should be. However, the issues raised here extended well beyond the fate of one company. Our financial system is extremely complex and interconnected, and Bear Stearns participated extensively in a range of critical markets. With financial conditions fragile, the sudden failure of Bear Stearns likely would have led to a chaotic unwinding of positions in those markets and could have severely shaken confidence. The companys failure could also have cast doubt on the financial positions of some of Bear Stearns thousands of counterparties and perhaps of companies with similar businesses. Given the current exceptional pressures on the global economy and financial system, the damage caused by a default by Bear Stearns could have been severe and extremely difficult to contain. Moreover, the adverse effects would not have been confined to the financial system but would have been felt broadly in the real economy through its effects on asset values and credit availability.
I want FULL disclosure on this and I want to know where Bernanke and Paulson and Bush and Cheny have bank accounts and i want to know what sort of conflict of interests this case presents to taxpayers!!
Brnanke better have more of an explanation Thursady, because this is total crap!
The companys failure could also have cast doubt on the financial positions of some of Bear Stearns thousands of counterparties and perhaps of companies with similar businesses. Given the current exceptional pressures on the global economy and financial system, the damage caused by a default by Bear Stearns could have been severe and extremely difficult to contain. Moreover, the adverse effects would not have been confined to the financial system but would have been felt broadly in the real economy through its effects on asset values and credit availability
Re: The problem arose when Uncle Billy misplaced $5,000 that was actually in the bank's possession.
"Wrong, the $5000 was being transfered. Potter was correct in suggesting that George was guilty of nonfeasance, because, The Baily Savings & Loan failed to deposit the money and account for the transaction and thus perform the duty fully.
However, Potter was guilty of Malfeasance, i.e, which denotes outright sabotage which causes intentional damage."
sad truth
Uncle Billy (bank depositer)walked into the bank during business hours and handed (unwittingly)$5000.00 to the Bank President, Mr. Potter. This is still a bank transaction that took place in the banking institution. Bank President Potter's fidicuary responsibility was to deposit the $5000.00 into the depositor's bank account. Bank President Potter did not record this transaction and instead pocketed the money from the depositor, Uncle Billy. And there's an eyewitness, his butler.
The Fed chief's largest assets last year were two annuities TIAA Traditional and CREF Stock Large Cap Blend, which were each valued at between $500,001 (364,778) to $1,000,000 (729,554).
The disclosure form asks only for broad ranges for the values of holdings.
The value of his assets last year totaled between $1.12 million (820,000) and $2.41 million (1.76 million). The income from his investments, which includes checking and savings accounts, came to between $136,500 (99,584) and $318,000 (231,998). Both the asset and income figures are in line with those reported for 2005.
Bernanke listed no individual stocks or corporate bonds among his holdings last year.
The chairman and other Federal Reserve board members are not allowed to own stock in banking organizations or shares of mutual funds specializing in banking and finance. Other holdings generally are permitted.
The Fed sets interest rate policy in the United States and is responsible for overseeing the nation's banking system to ensure its soundness.
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Manhattan apartment sales plunged the most in 18 years in the first quarter as buyers faced the prospect of a recession and job cuts at Wall Street securities firms.
Sales fell 34 percent from a year earlier and inventory rose 4.6 percent to 6,194 units, New York-based real estate appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a report today. The median price of a Manhattan co-operative apartment or condominium increased 13.2 percent to a record $945,000.
The chairman and other Federal Reserve board members are not allowed to own stock in banking organizations or shares of mutual funds specializing in banking and finance. Other holdings generally are permitted.
He snapped back and said $530k min and i am a realtor and know what i am doing. then i asked how long the house was on the market? (which i know is already 6-7 months) then he hung up on me.
what would you do now?
offer 530 verbally then, claim to fax over offer but never do.
Lewis v. United States, 680 F.2d 1239 (1982)
Federal reserve banks are not federal instrumentalities for purposes of a Federal Tort Claims Act, but are independent, privately owned and locally controlled corporations in light of fact that direct supervision and control of each bank is exercised by board of directors, federal reserve banks, though heavily regulated, are locally controlled by their member banks, banks are listed neither as "wholly owned" government corporations nor as "mixed ownership" corporations; federal reserve banks receive no appropriated funds from Congress and the banks are empowered to sue and be sued in their own names. . .
It is clear from this that in some circumstances, the Federal Reserve Bank can be considered a government "instrumentality", but cannot be considered a "federal agency", because the term carries with it the assumption that the federal government has direct oversight over what the Fed does. Of course it does not, because most people who know about this subject know that the Fed is "politically independent."
The common claim that the Fed is accountable to the government, because it is required to report to Congress on its activities annually, is incorrect. The reports to Congress mean little unless what the Chairman reports can be verified by complete records. From its founding to this day, the Fed has never undergone a complete independent audit. Congress time after time has requested that the Fed voluntarily submit to a complete audit, and every time, it refuses.
offer 530 verbally then, claim to fax over offer but never do.
Initially that got me laughing, but its a bad idea. Offering anything verbally was probably a bad idea. He can sit and stew and tell himself you're not serious or you can't get the financing or whatever. A written offer is something that stares him in the face with the clock ticking. He can sign or he can counter or he can let it expire, but he can't pretend he didn't get an offer, which is likely what he's doing now.
The verbal 530 without the paperwork would just help convince him that he's right - the buyer wasn't serious.
Re: The Fed chief's largest assets last year were two annuities TIAA Traditional and CREF Stock Large Cap Blend, which were each valued at between $500,001 (364,778) to $1,000,000 (729,554).
Herbert M. Allison, Jr.
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
He is also a member of the Business Roundtable, the Financial Services Roundtable, the Committee Encouraging Corporate Philanthropy, the Council of Graduate Schools Advisory Committee, the Harvard Graduate School of Education Visiting Committee, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's International Advisory Committee.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York's International Advisory Committee.
IAA-CREF is a Fortune 100 financial services company that is the leading retirement system for people who work in the academic, research, medical and cultural fields. With over $435 billion in combined assets under management (12/31/07
I'm with Fair Economist; there's a big difference between 'hope to raise' and 'have raised.'
It will be very interesting to track UBS' progress raising its $15 billion.
The folks in the Far East and Middle East have gotten burned on their investments in the newly-public hedge funds and their recent 'saves' of the investment banks.
We'll see if they are 'once burned, twice learned.
Whether the Fed is an instrumentality for purposes of the FTCA doesn't mean anything in this context unless you also recently slipped on their sidewalk.
While the Fed is financially self-sustaining, Congress is quite capable of repealing or narrowing its statutory powers, regardless of what label you apply to the institution.
Fencesitter,
What is your zip code? I want to review what is on the market at http://www.realtor.com at that price point. There should be other SFH available in that zip or surrounding zips. I would walk away from this house for now and focus on the entire market in your area. I also would not contact this seller/realtor/asshole again. If you happen to be in Dallas, TX there is a great home for sale on my street in your price range. Good luck. Here is the link: Search Results - Dallas Real Estate
Pardon me for getting back to the original post, but...
Anybody have anything like a financial multiplier that we could use to evaluate the impact on overall credit of a roughly $100 bln decline in lender capital?
Fencesitter, at this point in time, for every month you wait, you'll be making money. Plus this seller will be nothing but trouble all the way down the line. There are so many nice homes out there, that you should not allow yourself to get an emotional attachment to a single one; if you are emotional about it the seller will jerk you around no end.
Fencesitter, you pissed him off, not a good negotiating strategy. Find another place. On the other hand, if he does come back to you he's desperate enough to take your initial offer.
Reread some negotiating books and learn to smooze,...try to make it seem like you're trying to help while taking advantage of him. Have you learned nothing from the current Wall Street crap?
I have some Susan B. Anthony dollars and and Susan is pretty "uncirculated" (read: disease free). I think she is even more valuable because she is not paper but some kind of metal....
Anybody have anything like a financial multiplier that we could use to evaluate the impact on overall credit of a roughly $100 bln decline in lender capital?
Banks are currently leveraged about 15x and the primary dealers are leveraged about 30xs.
So, if you take that at face value you'd get about 600B-800B dollars in less "credit" in the economy.
But, most banks went into the current crisis over-capitalized. If we look at M1-M2 we see that total bank credit is actually up about 7% YOY.
That either means that banks were over-capitalized enough to absorb the losses without impacting credit or that bank depositors and money market funds are currently sitting on losses (and don't know it yet). Or both.
Banks are currently at minimum required capital levels so future losses will more than likely lead to a reduction in M1-M2 (unless the Federal decides that they are going to look the other way when it comes to insolvent banks al-la Japan)
"Who can stop these a$$h#les from bailing out foreclosure morons?"
Well, fencesitter, the list gets shorter and shorter.
We know Clinton wants to bail the "foreclosure morons". So she's out.
Now, to my dismay, Obama got added to the list this week, calling for the gov. to "put a floor under the housing market that could help those in foreclosure" (and ***screw you folks with half a brain!****).
We'll see if McCain folds to the REIC on this too.
There's been a lot of public outrage expressed over the idea of bailouts for homedebtors. Yet the politicians and media seem hell bent on ignoring that outcry.
Conclusion: the REIC is their master.
If McCain doesn't fold, that would be a crowd of one, but I'm not holding my breath.
Re: the realtor/seller. Seller is underwater, panicked, and stupid. You probably bid 50k more than has last bid three month's before so he got very excited. Then you killed his dream again and he blames you. Screw him. Even if you bid 530 he will start thinking "Hey, I am breaking even. Maybe I can even turn a profit." He'll ask for more.
Real estate markets are still dropping, some at amazing rates, others doing the Wiley Coyote Stand-in-thin-air Routine for now. Overall, based on rental rates, incomes, supply, restricted mortgage lending, and the recession, look for 35% (yes THIRTY-FIVE percent) more drop for median prices. The median price is about 201k right now, so look for it to head to 135k. Some higher end properties could fall more, some much less in percentage terms. Much depends on the income of the area, leverage, etc.
And why is anyone shocked by Bernanke? You mean he lied or sugar-coated or obfuscated? Gosh, Washington has never done that to us before. He helped the rich guys on Wall Street first? Gee, really. Well, go tell Dick Cheney because I am "sure" he cares.
Boo hoo. We are all screwed. We let Wall Street steal billion upon billions in bonuses for 25 years while the real economy was hollowed out. American consumers cared only about bigger houses, bigger cars, fancy toys and more cheeseburgers. Borrow, spend. Borrow, spend. Fat, lazy, arrogant, ignorant, and childish.
Boo hoo!
ps: I am a wealthy banker/trader who has lived abroad for over twenty years. Coinsider my perspective and look harder at yourselves.
Finally first!?
denninger wrote: I want pictures of the prison rapes committed upon your person...
Somebody go tell FDIC to stop hiring then.
denninger must have had a couple of bad trading days
I noticed that BSC had writedowns of only 2.6B. Does that mean that the roughly 30B that the FED has backstopped will not count towards the final total?
So by consensus estimates...we are at about the halfway point for writedowns.
Does anybody have a differnt view?
George Bailey brought his bank back to solvency without a government bailout.....I think how he did it was to put momma dollar and pappa dollar together into a basket and put them into the vault....and that was before Viagra...
I think the problem is it's so hard to tell the female dollars from the males. They all have male pictures on them. We need some female bucks.
FFDIC:
That's what I don't get. "B-52" Ben says he doesn't forsee any more banks(I guess that includes commercial and investment) going belly up, yet we have been hearing stories about the FDIC hiring. It doesn't make any sense. Then again, the market rose today because Ben said everything is contained, when he has been saying that for a year. Don't the markets have any kind of long term memory?
question.
a few weeks ago I looked at a house. then came back a few days later to say I wanted to bid on it. the realtor is the owner. house was priced at $550k. So i wanted to do a formal bid but he did not have paperwork so verbally offered $475k. He turned it down saying needed bank pre-approval. so about a week later i called up and said I had bank pre-approval and told him I got it and he then said $530K.
It ended there.
Then 2 weeks later called up saying I would like to put a new formal bid in writing and have the new pre-approval. The man snapped and said he wanted $530k min and asked what do i offer over the phone. I said i would like to do this in writing since I have the approval with the new higher bid. he then said you probably are not bidding much more anyway and he wanted $530K min. Again I said would like to just do a formal bid in writing and it was higher and that he could do whatever he likes with the bid. Also said that i was a renter and had no house to sell with an approval. He snapped back and said $530k min and i am a realtor and know what i am doing. then i asked how long the house was on the market? (which i know is already 6-7 months) then he hung up on me.
what would you do now?
Outsider:
I have some Susan B. Anthony dollars and and Susan is pretty "uncirculated" (read: disease free). I think she is even more valuable because she is not paper but some kind of metal....
I've been hearing more specifics on the terms of the Lehman deal. Pretty interesting stuff. They basically did the offer ain such a way as to engineer a massive short squeeze. UBS did the same.
I'm hearing the Street worked together to make both LEH and UBS 'hard to borrow' just in the nick of time.
World Recession and the Perfect Short Squeeze
There's a big difference between capital the bank has raised and capital the bank hopes to raise. Most of the capital reported there is from successful offering but there's some wishful thinking too.
The next question is will the banks be able to raise the next 200 billion to cover further write-offs? They've reached the limit with existing capital but there are more hits coming.
That is called market manipulation and not fair to people who made the right call on the stock.
Paulsen and bernanke have decided who the winners will be in a so called free market???
Re: George Bailey brought his bank back to solvency
I'm glad to see all the capital getting invested in banks. As someone who borrows regularly to finance commercial real estate, I'm of the opinion that lending is a good place to be nowadays. 300-400 over Libor for 60%-65% loan to purchase price loans will turn out to be very profitable.
Fencesitter:
My advice is to find another house. Just because values are falling doesn't mean that any particular seller has to accept them. Find someone who wants to sell today and is willing to price his house accordingly.
He snapped back and said $530k min and i am a realtor and know what i am doing. then i asked how long the house was on the market? (which i know is already 6-7 months) then he hung up on me.
what would you do now?
sounds like somebody owns $530k on the house and can't negotiate.
no need to throw money away.
I'd move on.
as they say, there's a whole lot of houses in the sea
or something like that.
Greenshoe - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A Green Shoe, also known by its legal title as an "over-allotment option" (the only way it can be referred to in a prospectus), gives underwriters the right to sell additional shares in a registered securities offering if demand for the securities is in excess of the original amount offered. The Green Shoe can vary in size up to 15% of the original number of shares offered.
The Green Shoe option is popular because it is the only SEC-permitted means for an underwriter to stabilize the price of a new issue post-pricing. Issuers will sometimes not permit a greenshoe on a transaction when they have a very specific objective for the offering, and do not want the possibility of raising more money than planned. The term "Green Shoe" comes from a company founded in 1919 as Green Shoe Manufacturing Company, now called Stride Rite Corporation, which was the first company to permit this practice to be used in an offering.
Fencesitter, that agent, by law, has to present any written offer. His verbal $530,000 is not a valid offer, because all real estate offers, except month-to-month leases, are subject to the statute of frauds (must be in writing).
I would go directly to the seller and explain that the realtor refuses to take your written offer. Ask the seller if you can present it to him/her in person. You have nothing to lose.
E.G:
n connection with the offering, SVB Financial Group has entered into convertible note hedge transactions with counterparties, one of which is an affiliate of the initial purchaser of the notes (the "hedge counterparties") and intends to use a portion of the net proceeds from this offering to pay for the cost of the convertible note hedge transactions. SVB Financial Group has also entered into separate warrant transactions with the hedge counterparties, which have partially offset the cost of the convertible note hedge transactions.
here is the story i can piece together.
Just check out info at the county clerk.
the homedebtor I mean owner bought the house in 1972 at $55k, but owes $300k mortgage with a $100k heloc a month later. $300k loan was taken out in 2005 and it is an option arm that resetted in 2006 so there is equity left. it's looks like we got a flipper that went flop.
Now the homedebtor will have to go to sleep tonight not knowing how much i was really going to bid.
hammerhead writes:
the seller is the realtor.
what would you do now?
Fencesitter | 04.02.08 - 12:43 pm |
Personally I would walk. As a second option put in a written offer at your 475 or even a little less. Make it good for 30 days or so. Make the asshole seller realize after 30 you move on...If you are flexible in what to own you can drive a VERY hard bargin right now...
Chris
P.S. - Make sure a lawyer or agent puts in the written offer for you.
fencesitter:
many realtor-owners have multiple properties.
I'm sure this flipper needs to get the $530k to pay off that house and also get current on another house.
I'll bet that part of the "equity" in the house s/he's selling came from a HELOC from a different home.
s/he needs to sell at $530k to pay off this house, and the HELOC of the other..
just a guess.
again, why deal with a butt-head? there are plenty of nice families around town you can buy from.
Ah, the Bailey Savings & Loan. Great movie.
YouTube - It's A Wonderful Life bank run (full version)
Slightly OT, but part of the reason they will need the new capital.
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CNNMoney.com
Consumer bankruptcies jump 27%
Wednesday April 2, 12:15 pm ET
The number of individuals filing for bankruptcy surged during the first-quarter as American households struggled to stay on top of debt, according to a report released Wednesday.
The American Bankruptcy Institute said that consumer bankruptcy filings increased 27% nationwide in the first three months of the year, compared with the same period last year. In March alone, 86,165 individuals filed for consumer bankruptcy - a 13% increase over the 76,120 cases filed in February.
"Bankruptcies are rising due to the heavy burden of household debt and growing mortgage problems," said ABI Executive Director Samuel J. Gerdano. "We expect this trend to continue through 2008."
The ABI found that nearly 32% of all consumer bankruptcy cases were Chapter 13 filings, which is available to individuals with regular income and calls for budgeting some of the debtor's future earnings to pay off creditors.
Annualizing the march numbers that translates into over 1 million bankruptcies a year, or about 0.4% of the population once you exclude kids. This is even with a bankruptcy law that even Draco of Athens might find harsh. Yeah, somehow I think a recession is possible Ben.
durable goods
Yep, everything is on course for a quick economic turn around and a massive market rally.
Downturn is rough on community banks
Just one in region made gains in 2007
Downturn is rough on community banks | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader
The nation's 8,534 banks and thrifts earned a combined $105.5 billion in 2007, a drop of 27 percent, or nearly $40 billion, from 2006.
That ended a string of six consecutive years of record earnings for the U.S. banking industry, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Fourth-quarter earnings fell to a 16-year low of $5.8 billion.
"It's no surprise to anyone that the second half of 2007 was a very tough period for the banking industry," said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair. "Fourth-quarter results were heavily influenced by a number of well-publicized write-downs by large banks."
That included the four largest banks doing business in Florida.
Fourth-quarter profits fell by 95 percent at Bank of America's, 98 percent at Wachovia, 99 percent at SunTrust and 80 percent at Regions Financial.
They combined for $8 billion less in profits during the final three months of the year.
Just over half of U.S. banks reported lower profits for the entire year.
Provisions for loan losses more than doubled to $68.2 million. The average return on assets, a key measure of earnings performance, fell to 0.86 percent from 1.28 percent a year earlier.
The FDIC had 76 banks on its "problem list" of troubled institutions, up from 50 over the year.
PISS OFF BERNANKE!
girlbear said: "George Bailey brought his bank back to solvency without a government bailout...."
Did he bring it back to solvency? Or just provide liquidity? The problem arose when Uncle Billy misplaced $5,000 that was actually in the bank's possession.
I would argue that George Bailey provided liquidity to an otherwise sound institution for which there was a desperate need in the community.
Others in the community recognized that need and provided further liquidity, with Sam Wainwright (playing the role of Ben Bernanke, using a strange backward time-warp) ultimately stepping-in to provide an amount of liquidity, up to $25,000, to guarantee that the institution didn't fail.
I see the current situation far more as a liquidity problem than a solvency problem. The IB's "lost" the money, just like Uncle Billy did, but that doesn't mean their business model is broken and they won't be able to make money in the future.
Sebastia
Tell him to go to hell. $475K-$530K is too much, anyway. We still have much farther to drop. 6-7 months on the market? Ha, let him squirm
Fence-
Even if the owner accepts your offer.
You're wanting to spend $475,000 on a house that's at least 36 years old?
Is this house sitting on a top of a known gold deposit, or...?
We need some female bucks.
'Doughs
thanks. This house would probably have sold at about $590k at bubble peak just to give some perspective
Fencesitter - patience... housing bubbles collapse over years because of idiots like your seller.
Fencesitter
IMHO, you would be better off to wait 2 years...and then buy for probably about 400k.
Fencesitter....keep sitting.
Actually, a good strategy I read here. Over the next few months, get 10 of your friends to send written offers for 15 to 50% of the asking price.
Then make your offer. I don't know the legality of this - anyone care to comment ?
I have been sitting for 3.5 years already. Ok another 6 months to a year won't hurt.
reasoning:
this house probably in 1995 sold for about $240K ...
5% appreciation or about $445k real value at 5% trendline.
Re: The problem arose when Uncle Billy misplaced $5,000 that was actually in the bank's possession.
Wrong, the $5000 was being transfered. Potter was correct in suggesting that George was guilty of nonfeasance, because, The Baily Savings & Loan failed to deposit the money and account for the transaction and thus perform the duty fully.
However, Potter was guilty of Malfeasance, i.e, which denotes outright sabotage which causes intentional damage.
Banks need capital for sure. Bonus season will be here before you know it. The summer season at the Hamptons is going to be a bust. We can't have THAT again in 2009.
Re: I see the current situation far more as a liquidity problem than a solvency problem. The IB's "lost" the money, just like Uncle Billy did, but that doesn't mean their business model is broken and they won't be able to make money in the future.
I see it as accounting fraud!
Fencesitter: I'd send a formal offer of $470k good for 24 hours, and tell him it will drop by $2000 every week.
If he wants to sell he will.
sad truth said: "Wrong, the $5000 was being transfered. Potter was correct in suggesting that George was guilty of nonfeasance, because, The Baily Savings & Loan failed to deposit the money and account for the transaction and thus perform the duty fully."
When I said "bank's possession" I meant "the savings and loan's" possession as the institution that was in trouble.
Which is about as far as I want to stretch this analogy.
S.
Did anyone from congress question Bernanke on the lavish bonuses to bankers in light of the need to raise capital and a fed bailout?
It seems to me, that the tens of billions in wall street bonuses in 2005 thru 2007 necessitated the need for a fed and government bailout of the financial system.
YouTube - Sittin' Up With The Dead-Ray Stevens
Uh-Hu
Angry Saver - It should be clear to everyone by now that BB doesn't care about the public interest. He only cared about fulfilling the FED mandate at any cost.
Anyone that would see Bear Stearns in the role of George Bailey is clearly out to lunch, because without a doubt, Bear Stearns is the epitome of Potter! Furthermore, I imagine you see Paulson as the supernatural agent of Clarence Odbody -- and the US taxpayers as the group of retards at the end of the film in the Bailey living room, who sing, "Auld Lang Syne".....
Please, go back and pump a stock at Yahoo!
I think she is even more valuable because she is not paper but some kind of metal....
LOL. Even stamp out slugs are valuable these daze.
Sebastian, Any Stock tips today? I need to recover my setback yesterday.
Re: Did anyone from congress question Bernanke on the lavish bonuses to bankers in light of the need to raise capital and a fed bailout?
Did anyone question if they all clinked champagne glasses and snorted coke?
"Did anyone from congress question Bernanke on the lavish bonuses to bankers in light of the need to raise capital and a fed bailout?"
no.
there was very little critical said about BenB or the bailout.
most of it came from Senator Casey as I posted in the previous thread.
I have a post at 1118am about what Senator Casey (sp?) said and then around 1146 of what Paul said on the previous thread
most of the others were simply acknowledging that the bailout was probably necessary, and wondered if more were needed in the future... and then asked him what he thought THEY should do as Congress to help.
very little was critical at all
I think it's the middle managers who are the back bone of this country's corporations. I also think the middle managers are losing faith. Not good.
girlbear writes:
George Bailey brought his bank back to solvency without a government bailout.....I think how he did it was to put momma dollar and pappa dollar together into a basket and put them into the vault....and that was before Viagra...
girlbear | 04.02.08 - 12:38 pm | #
That explains everything & especially why that wouldn't work today.
See nowadays they aren't 'mommy & daddies' but rather 'domestic partners'... they don't make new dollars on their own but rather must 'adopt' from gov't & swf. Good thing that's still allowed or we'd all be 'screwed'.
The IB's wont make money because they haven't made money. Everything they thought was profit of the last 5 years was an illusion.
They profited off of lending money at lower rates than the risk allowed. This means short term profits at the expense of long term profits.
That is just beginning to unwind.
Fannie and Freddie are the only ones who are being allowed to lend money at below risk-adjusted levels. They will be the loss-leaders who will insure that no private company will be able to come into the market to compete (rates have to be much higher now to account for lending money to people facing a recession to buy assets that are depreciating at prices that are above their ability to afford).
This will go on as long as Fannie and Freddie survive. When they bust, well govt will save them and home lending will essentially be a cost of government (can you say airlines).
This is a disaster that will take years before we look back and realize what we did.
Japan took 10-20 years to realize they messed up. If they didn't know what to do then, why do we think we know what to do know (especially since everyone who is "solving" this problem are the same ones who didn't even see it when this blog was on its second year!)
Malaise.
@fencesitter -
Why would you buy the house from such a prick? If it was the only house available, I would still not buy it. I don't do business with people who behave like that, even if it was a good deal (which it does not sound like it is).
Under questioning from Robert Casey Jr., a Democratic Senator from Pennsylvania, Mr. Bernanke said Wednesday that the assets in the Feds collateral were investment grade, entirely current and performing. But, he was asked, what if BlackRock, which the Fed has hired to manage the collateral, concludes that they are worth far less than $30 billion? Can the Fed go back and ask for more?
Mr. Bernankes answer was brief: No, we cant.
And why did the Fed agree to put itself at risk?
In a prepared statement to the lawmakers, Mr. Bernanke emphasized that Bear was on the brink of collapsing, which he said could have unleashed a parade of horribles on the markets.
Below, an excerpt from his testimony about the Feds decision to intervene:
On March 13, Bear Stearns advised the Federal Reserve and other government agencies that its liquidity position had significantly deteriorated and that it would have to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy the next day unless alternative sources of funds became available. This news raised difficult questions of public policy. Normally, the market sorts out which companies survive and which fail, and that is as it should be. However, the issues raised here extended well beyond the fate of one company. Our financial system is extremely complex and interconnected, and Bear Stearns participated extensively in a range of critical markets. With financial conditions fragile, the sudden failure of Bear Stearns likely would have led to a chaotic unwinding of positions in those markets and could have severely shaken confidence. The companys failure could also have cast doubt on the financial positions of some of Bear Stearns thousands of counterparties and perhaps of companies with similar businesses. Given the current exceptional pressures on the global economy and financial system, the damage caused by a default by Bear Stearns could have been severe and extremely difficult to contain. Moreover, the adverse effects would not have been confined to the financial system but would have been felt broadly in the real economy through its effects on asset values and credit availability.
FRB: Testimony--Bernanke, The economic outlook--April 2, 2008
Testimony
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
The economic outlook
Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress
April 2, 2008
He should resign today!
dryfly said: "That explains everything & especially why that wouldn't work today."
Also, Viagra is more a "recreational" drug, which doesn't do anything to enhance fertility or "crop yield."
S.
I want FULL disclosure on this and I want to know where Bernanke and Paulson and Bush and Cheny have bank accounts and i want to know what sort of conflict of interests this case presents to taxpayers!!
Brnanke better have more of an explanation Thursady, because this is total crap!
The companys failure could also have cast doubt on the financial positions of some of Bear Stearns thousands of counterparties and perhaps of companies with similar businesses. Given the current exceptional pressures on the global economy and financial system, the damage caused by a default by Bear Stearns could have been severe and extremely difficult to contain. Moreover, the adverse effects would not have been confined to the financial system but would have been felt broadly in the real economy through its effects on asset values and credit availability
I just don't know who would invest in an IB here. These institutions seem to only be able to thrive in an asset inflation environment.
It's hard see further asset inflation from these valuations. In fact, asset deflation seems likely given the ongoing de-leveraging.
Also, Viagra is more a "recreational" drug, which doesn't do anything to enhance fertility or "crop yield."
LOL - CROP YEILD!!! I could of used that a decade or two ago when the seeds were being sown. Though not sure the wife would have seen the humor.
Re: The problem arose when Uncle Billy misplaced $5,000 that was actually in the bank's possession.
"Wrong, the $5000 was being transfered. Potter was correct in suggesting that George was guilty of nonfeasance, because, The Baily Savings & Loan failed to deposit the money and account for the transaction and thus perform the duty fully.
However, Potter was guilty of Malfeasance, i.e, which denotes outright sabotage which causes intentional damage."
sad truth
Uncle Billy (bank depositer)walked into the bank during business hours and handed (unwittingly)$5000.00 to the Bank President, Mr. Potter. This is still a bank transaction that took place in the banking institution. Bank President Potter's fidicuary responsibility was to deposit the $5000.00 into the depositor's bank account. Bank President Potter did not record this transaction and instead pocketed the money from the depositor, Uncle Billy. And there's an eyewitness, his butler.
The Fed chief's largest assets last year were two annuities TIAA Traditional and CREF Stock Large Cap Blend, which were each valued at between $500,001 (364,778) to $1,000,000 (729,554).
The disclosure form asks only for broad ranges for the values of holdings.
The value of his assets last year totaled between $1.12 million (820,000) and $2.41 million (1.76 million). The income from his investments, which includes checking and savings accounts, came to between $136,500 (99,584) and $318,000 (231,998). Both the asset and income figures are in line with those reported for 2005.
Bernanke listed no individual stocks or corporate bonds among his holdings last year.
The chairman and other Federal Reserve board members are not allowed to own stock in banking organizations or shares of mutual funds specializing in banking and finance. Other holdings generally are permitted.
The Fed sets interest rate policy in the United States and is responsible for overseeing the nation's banking system to ensure its soundness.
Search - Global Edition - The New York Times
Anonymous,
He should resign today!
I agree.
An excellent academic record is not a substitute for good judgement and foresight.
dryfly said: "Though not sure the wife would have seen the humor."
Yeah, I can just see my poll numbers among women posters here drop through the basement. I don't think the joke's wit will cut much ice.
S.
OT but not (apologies if a repost):
Manhattan Condo, Co-op Sales Decline Most in 18 Years (Update2)
By Sharon L. Lynch
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Manhattan apartment sales plunged the most in 18 years in the first quarter as buyers faced the prospect of a recession and job cuts at Wall Street securities firms.
Sales fell 34 percent from a year earlier and inventory rose 4.6 percent to 6,194 units, New York-based real estate appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a report today. The median price of a Manhattan co-operative apartment or condominium increased 13.2 percent to a record $945,000.
[snip]
o.k. can we have a massive 200-300pts sell off now...?
DECEMBER 31, 2007
TIAA-CREF
INSTITUTIONAL MUTUAL FUNDS
TIAA-CREF INSTITUTIONAL MUTUAL FUNDS - Growth & Income Fund
178,088 Morgan Stanley
TOTAL SECURITY AND COMMODITY BROKERS 30,052,938
Is there a conflict of interest with bernanke, if he can manipulate the market with taxpayer funds, of which he did not have authority to use??
These people are crooks!!
The chairman and other Federal Reserve board members are not allowed to own stock in banking organizations or shares of mutual funds specializing in banking and finance. Other holdings generally are permitted.
How can Bernanke, warsh or these other crooks not hold complex financial securities if they own mutual funds??
These are lies and crooks and God should strike down Dodd if he doesnt protect America!
He snapped back and said $530k min and i am a realtor and know what i am doing. then i asked how long the house was on the market? (which i know is already 6-7 months) then he hung up on me.
what would you do now?
offer 530 verbally then, claim to fax over offer but never do.
Lewis v. United States, 680 F.2d 1239 (1982)
Federal reserve banks are not federal instrumentalities for purposes of a Federal Tort Claims Act, but are independent, privately owned and locally controlled corporations in light of fact that direct supervision and control of each bank is exercised by board of directors, federal reserve banks, though heavily regulated, are locally controlled by their member banks, banks are listed neither as "wholly owned" government corporations nor as "mixed ownership" corporations; federal reserve banks receive no appropriated funds from Congress and the banks are empowered to sue and be sued in their own names. . .
It is clear from this that in some circumstances, the Federal Reserve Bank can be considered a government "instrumentality", but cannot be considered a "federal agency", because the term carries with it the assumption that the federal government has direct oversight over what the Fed does. Of course it does not, because most people who know about this subject know that the Fed is "politically independent."
The common claim that the Fed is accountable to the government, because it is required to report to Congress on its activities annually, is incorrect. The reports to Congress mean little unless what the Chairman reports can be verified by complete records. From its founding to this day, the Fed has never undergone a complete independent audit. Congress time after time has requested that the Fed voluntarily submit to a complete audit, and every time, it refuses.
Those in the know about the Fed, realize that it does keep certain records secret....
Court Rules Fed is Privately Owned
Bernanke's allegiance is neither to country nor citizen. His sworn fealty is to the private banks, corporations, and investors.
These are lies and crooks and God should strike down Dodd if he doesnt protect America!
Why do you think God cares a whit about America? It is reaping exactly what it has sown.
Furthermore,
Re: TIAA-CREF
How can Paulson with $700 million in wealth not be connected to funds that benefit from collusion????
How can a blind trust not be impacted by market manipulation like this????
offer 530 verbally then, claim to fax over offer but never do.
Initially that got me laughing, but its a bad idea. Offering anything verbally was probably a bad idea. He can sit and stew and tell himself you're not serious or you can't get the financing or whatever. A written offer is something that stares him in the face with the clock ticking. He can sign or he can counter or he can let it expire, but he can't pretend he didn't get an offer, which is likely what he's doing now.
The verbal 530 without the paperwork would just help convince him that he's right - the buyer wasn't serious.
$136 billion, eh? They'll need more.
Under federal law, God is no allowed to do this without holding a Senate hearing.
Ok, conflict of interest:
Re: The Fed chief's largest assets last year were two annuities TIAA Traditional and CREF Stock Large Cap Blend, which were each valued at between $500,001 (364,778) to $1,000,000 (729,554).
Herbert M. Allison, Jr.
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
He is also a member of the Business Roundtable, the Financial Services Roundtable, the Committee Encouraging Corporate Philanthropy, the Council of Graduate Schools Advisory Committee, the Harvard Graduate School of Education Visiting Committee, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's International Advisory Committee.
IAA-CREF is a Fortune 100 financial services company that is the leading retirement system for people who work in the academic, research, medical and cultural fields. With over $435 billion in combined assets under management (12/31/07
I'm with Fair Economist; there's a big difference between 'hope to raise' and 'have raised.'
It will be very interesting to track UBS' progress raising its $15 billion.
The folks in the Far East and Middle East have gotten burned on their investments in the newly-public hedge funds and their recent 'saves' of the investment banks.
We'll see if they are 'once burned, twice learned.
"Why do you think God cares a whit about America?"
Which God? There have only been about hundred different ones at least threw out history.
Which God? There have only been about hundred different ones at least threw out history.
Take your pick. I don't think any of them care about the human construct we refer to as the nation-state.
Who can stop these @$$HOLES from bailing out foreclosure morons?
This is BS!
The only problem here is the massive toxic loans and the over inflated house prices that need to correct down to sanity.
Stabilize home values?
Homes are extremely overvalued based on incomes and rents.
rich, I know you actively follow SRS: am I completely insane to hold it right now? Didn't see it falling this far.
RPS:
Whether the Fed is an instrumentality for purposes of the FTCA doesn't mean anything in this context unless you also recently slipped on their sidewalk.
While the Fed is financially self-sustaining, Congress is quite capable of repealing or narrowing its statutory powers, regardless of what label you apply to the institution.
Fencesitter,
What is your zip code? I want to review what is on the market at http://www.realtor.com at that price point. There should be other SFH available in that zip or surrounding zips. I would walk away from this house for now and focus on the entire market in your area. I also would not contact this seller/realtor/asshole again. If you happen to be in Dallas, TX there is a great home for sale on my street in your price range. Good luck. Here is the link:
Search Results - Dallas Real Estate
Pardon me for getting back to the original post, but...
Anybody have anything like a financial multiplier that we could use to evaluate the impact on overall credit of a roughly $100 bln decline in lender capital?
Fencesitter, at this point in time, for every month you wait, you'll be making money. Plus this seller will be nothing but trouble all the way down the line. There are so many nice homes out there, that you should not allow yourself to get an emotional attachment to a single one; if you are emotional about it the seller will jerk you around no end.
Why do you think God cares a whit about America?
Obviously, there is something in the wind
Fencesitter, you pissed him off, not a good negotiating strategy. Find another place. On the other hand, if he does come back to you he's desperate enough to take your initial offer.
Reread some negotiating books and learn to smooze,...try to make it seem like you're trying to help while taking advantage of him. Have you learned nothing from the current Wall Street crap?
I'm with Fair Economist; there's a big difference between 'hope to raise' and 'have raised.'
Kinda like the difference between 'M1' and 'M3'?
I have some Susan B. Anthony dollars and and Susan is pretty "uncirculated" (read: disease free). I think she is even more valuable because she is not paper but some kind of metal....
Sadly, those mixed relationships rarely work out.
Anybody have anything like a financial multiplier that we could use to evaluate the impact on overall credit of a roughly $100 bln decline in lender capital?
Banks are currently leveraged about 15x and the primary dealers are leveraged about 30xs.
So, if you take that at face value you'd get about 600B-800B dollars in less "credit" in the economy.
But, most banks went into the current crisis over-capitalized. If we look at M1-M2 we see that total bank credit is actually up about 7% YOY.
That either means that banks were over-capitalized enough to absorb the losses without impacting credit or that bank depositors and money market funds are currently sitting on losses (and don't know it yet). Or both.
Banks are currently at minimum required capital levels so future losses will more than likely lead to a reduction in M1-M2 (unless the Federal decides that they are going to look the other way when it comes to insolvent banks al-la Japan)
"The financial institutions have turned to their own governments, sovereign wealth funds of other countries' governments and public investors."
Cool! This is how it works from a Machiavellian perspective:
We end up with a bunch of newly built brick-and-mortar houses in our country, and they (and their governments) end up holding the bag.
It's not fair, but it works if you live in the US.
Were is Fortis in this list?
fencesitter,
Buy the house down the street for 470k and screw
him on the comps
"Who can stop these a$$h#les from bailing out foreclosure morons?"
Well, fencesitter, the list gets shorter and shorter.
We know Clinton wants to bail the "foreclosure morons". So she's out.
Now, to my dismay, Obama got added to the list this week, calling for the gov. to "put a floor under the housing market that could help those in foreclosure" (and ***screw you folks with half a brain!****).
We'll see if McCain folds to the REIC on this too.
There's been a lot of public outrage expressed over the idea of bailouts for homedebtors. Yet the politicians and media seem hell bent on ignoring that outcry.
Conclusion: the REIC is their master.
If McCain doesn't fold, that would be a crowd of one, but I'm not holding my breath.
Re: the realtor/seller. Seller is underwater, panicked, and stupid. You probably bid 50k more than has last bid three month's before so he got very excited. Then you killed his dream again and he blames you. Screw him. Even if you bid 530 he will start thinking "Hey, I am breaking even. Maybe I can even turn a profit." He'll ask for more.
Real estate markets are still dropping, some at amazing rates, others doing the Wiley Coyote Stand-in-thin-air Routine for now. Overall, based on rental rates, incomes, supply, restricted mortgage lending, and the recession, look for 35% (yes THIRTY-FIVE percent) more drop for median prices. The median price is about 201k right now, so look for it to head to 135k. Some higher end properties could fall more, some much less in percentage terms. Much depends on the income of the area, leverage, etc.
And why is anyone shocked by Bernanke? You mean he lied or sugar-coated or obfuscated? Gosh, Washington has never done that to us before. He helped the rich guys on Wall Street first? Gee, really. Well, go tell Dick Cheney because I am "sure" he cares.
Boo hoo. We are all screwed. We let Wall Street steal billion upon billions in bonuses for 25 years while the real economy was hollowed out. American consumers cared only about bigger houses, bigger cars, fancy toys and more cheeseburgers. Borrow, spend. Borrow, spend. Fat, lazy, arrogant, ignorant, and childish.
Boo hoo!
ps: I am a wealthy banker/trader who has lived abroad for over twenty years. Coinsider my perspective and look harder at yourselves.
broken link?? anyone point me to the table? thx
Thanks for dropping by Sing Expat. Now run away and nourish on the teat of your own greatness.
You should be good at that. You've been running for two decades.
Hey Price Stout! Frightened by the prospect of failure or already accustomed to it/
Fortis doesn't exist anymore, so I guess it's been subsumed by RBS & Banco Santander
Article has been pulled - is there another link?
Fortis still exists, It was ABN AMRO which was taken over