The business and financial news has flipped from fear to hope and back again many times in recent weeks, creating an extremely choppy trading environment. Investors moods and stock volatility have jumped up and down abruptly with the latest reports. When mass psychology shifts so dramatically and unpredictably from hope to fear, without warning, risk control becomes more important than aggressive profit seeking
No, I haven't been banned from Broker 'Verse. I have never actually been tempted to comment over there. Most of the stuff I read there leaves me speechless.
It makes you wonder when subprime will be back again in residential.
Imagine the scene in 2015 when some young shiny MBA comes into his boss' office at Landwide Financial and says, "I've created a spreadsheet to show that if the rate premium is high enough and we slice it up to the appropriate investors, we can make a lot of money and it makes sense for everyone."
I can just see the chorus, sung by a line of middle-aged mortgage lenders and real estate professionals in pinstripe suits. While tow trucks take away their Porches in the background.
iceman said: "Imagine the scene in 2015 when some young shiny MBA comes into his boss' office at Landwide Financial and says, "I've created a spreadsheet to show that if the rate premium is high enough and we slice it up to the appropriate investors, we can make a lot of money and it makes sense for everyone."..."
I know you're just joshing, but you're a lot closer to a Universal Truth about markets than you realize.
I'm totally disgusted with the lapdog mentality of the bubblevision STARS and their distinguished guests.
The "R" word. What the hell is that? It's less than juvenile, it's pitiful, that adults would be so sheepish as to refuse to call a spade a spade. They financial community sure isn't sheepish about welcoming handouts or taking everyone's $$$.
iceman, I know your just joking around, but I think 2015 is about 50 years too soon. Young MBA's in 2015 will be experts on too much leverage and have to listen to their crusty co-workers talk about the Golden Era of Risk. Their granchildren in 2060 will have no clue though.
Now we begin the generation of over-regulation and socialist progress.
w said: "Young MBA's in 2015 will be experts on too much leverage"
But by then it'll be 'different this time'.
My theory is that our collective memory lasts only half the cycle length. If it takes, say, ten years for the cycle to repeat itself, collective memory only lasts five years.
The Fed is supposedly being given some power to look at all books and they will have some unclear power to help market stability.
Wouldn't one way to do that be to get these derivative experts from various institutions and force/create a sort of derivatives clearinghouse where these IBs are FORCED to gradually unwind their positions?
And aren't Bear and JPM big counterparties to each other? Can they just cancel all those devirvatives contracts out? Done and done!
There's no question everything will backlash into a new era of heavy government regulation and socialized government serviced. We have no choice at this point.
Comrade Obama is just the right guy to lead us forward.
With fires being set by some clear losses, I've penned this partial ditty. Apologies to The Byrds.
For every subprime - burn, burn, burn,
There was a reason - burn, burn, burn.
And a crime for many persons cashing out HELOC's.
A time to buy, a time to appraise,
A time for no docs, a time to inflate.
A time skipping reason, a time to reset.
A time to foreclose, a time to vacate.
Comrade Obama is just the right guy to lead us forward.
Is Hillary or Mccain any better? They dont know a hoot about economics. All three of them dont and all 3 dont have what it takes for the country to believe in them. Thats the problem. We need a rich untouchable businessman in the oval office for 8 years to straighten this mess out. Who that is? There are plenty but why would they take on such a task? Thats why we are all in deep doo. Alot of people believe Ron Paul is the man, but I can assure you of one thing, if by some alien miracle he were elected President he would be assasinated at the swearing in ceremony.
Red Pill said: "...And aren't Bear and JPM big counterparties to each other? Can they just cancel all those derivatives contracts out? Done and done!"
Gonna wind up a bull thinking that way.
All those leveraged derivatives don't just go one way. A massive amount of them simply offset each other. If IB "A" is long $1 trillion and IB "B" is short $1 trillion, yes, that's a combined total of $2 trillion, but...
JMO, but that's the way a lot of this debt "problem" should be viewed.
Could you people take your lame "socialism" crap to some other blog?
If this turns into the same thing we saw the other day on a "political" post, I'll end up doing the same thing to it: shutting it off.
Really. The net is just full of sites where "Comrade" and "Capitalist Pig" are considered original witticisms or cogent thoughts. So, go there, please.
I've created a spreadsheet to show that if the rate premium is high enough and we slice it up to the appropriate investors, we can make a lot of money and it makes sense for everyone
The funny thing is that, yes, that is a good model. IF you don't write loans for people who a) can't verify their income and b) (which is related to a) can't afford to pay the loan back. Otherwise the securitization process is fine.
Bosch,
I'm from OH...he's a freakin' nut who can't even keep a city from default...and you want him to run the country? Well, since we are technically bankrupt as a country, at least he's experienced.
Terry said: "...My theory is that our collective memory lasts only half the cycle length. If it takes, say, ten years for the cycle to repeat itself, collective memory only lasts five years."
Well, that's one of the few cycle theories I could get behind, because it's based on something real (albeit difficult to measure).
And the really big market losses (1929-33, 1973-74, 2000-2002) are a generation apart because almost nobody remembers, or believes that it can happen again.
And besides, wasn't this tagged as a HUMOR thread? Sheesh. So many one-trick ponies.
And since all the news seems to come from Crywitness News - all bad, all the time.
I thought I'd inject an uplifting insight. The mail just came in. With so many corporations getting (perhaps deservedly) such a bad image, there's one (who's catalog arrives regularly) that should get a mention for its philanthropic efforts.
I speak of Victoria's Secret, for expanding the economic opportunities for so many unfortunate young women born with hip dysplasia and without nipples.
despicable, disgusting there is simply no shame to the corporate lobby in Washington. is there a lobbyist in Washington for the citizens of the USA ? can i send him a check to legislate in the interest of the long term good of the country instead of catering to the largest handout ? isn't that what the people get for voting for these greedy foresightless scum bags who pride themselves on being Senators and Legislators.
Personally, I prefer the "Mortgage Servicing Pie" version of Mr. McLean's anthem to the version referenced over on BU... YouTube - Mortgage Servicing Pie
Racer X writes:
Help, does anyone know arithmetic!
Reminds me of the brief time I worked in the the QC lab of a major bottler when they rolled out Dasani. We were supposed to multiply and divide by five constants to get some number. My memory is fuzzy but I think it was concerning the ozone level per liter. Anyway after performing this pointless exercise on a ten-key for an entire shift I consolidated them into one number. Well, I had to justify the math to the department head. It was surprisingly difficult to demonstrate the obvious to him. To be fair, he only held the position because they had forced the old QC manager out because she wouldn't play the games with the numbers, so it's safe to say they wanted an idiot in the position.
And I had moved into the lab from being a delivery driver so there was suspicion. Still, they wanted a Chemistry degree for my position and waived it for my Bio background, so he should have had some kind of higher ed.
I don't think we are safe yet from that Bright Young Genius in 2015. Until the dominant mood in the country and business community is "never again," we won't be safe even in the relatively near term. At the moment the dominant mood seems to be "Let's get the last of the bad news behind us so we can get back to business as usual," by which people still seem to mean the glory of the bubble days. I think there are many willing to admit that in 2006 and 2007 things got a little out of hand, but believe that 2005 was the gold standard...
anaon
the article was just sad. Now we are giving additional tax breaks to home builders. for what. I want a tax break from buyin a piece of crap from a national homebuilder who wont fix a thing because they pulled out of my area.
15 billion subsidy for the builders in the Senate plan. Straight out of the treasury via tax givebacks.
Well, now we know why the builder stocks have been going up!
Oh, and Isakson's brilliant tax credit for buying foreclosed homes means the government is subsidizing foreclosures over workouts. We are paying to make things worse. He should be impeached.
Tanta,
Great laughter. Apologies should be given to the "preacher" in Ecclesiastes 3.
The folk singer, the name which escapes me right now, needs a bit of applause too.
I want the world to know that Fafblog is back. The world is saved! Now I have a blog to go to when the primary race and finally the race to Nov has driven me stark raving mad.
I made the decision a long time ago that if a candidate has a R after their name he/she doesn't get my vote.
I know that is stupid but that is what 8 years of gwb will do to yoo. Yoo what a slip of the fingers.
Tanta! Damm You!
Now you have driven me back to the old Testament and my favorite, Ecclesiastes.
Please get someone to do Ecc 1 justice with a bit of poetic snark. It begins:
Vanity of vanities, says the preacher, vanity of vanities! All is vanity. Then after Ecc comes some Old Testament porn: The Song of Solomon. Yahooo!
Thank you Tanta,
I thought you were sleeping!
The business and financial news has flipped from fear to hope and back again many times in recent weeks, creating an extremely choppy trading environment. Investors moods and stock volatility have jumped up and down abruptly with the latest reports. When mass psychology shifts so dramatically and unpredictably from hope to fear, without warning, risk control becomes more important than aggressive profit seeking
Tanta, was that you?
Re: The author of this message has lost his/her posting privileges.
by Banned User April 2, 2008
If you think the Bear Stearns bailout was unconstitutional digg this to help get the word out.
Yes, your tax dollars will be used to bail out BEAR STEARNS
See comments for link to senate banking committee page. Taxpayer funds should not be appropriated without Congressional approval.
It is rather past my nap time.
No, I haven't been banned from Broker 'Verse. I have never actually been tempted to comment over there. Most of the stuff I read there leaves me speechless.
It makes you wonder when subprime will be back again in residential.
Imagine the scene in 2015 when some young shiny MBA comes into his boss' office at Landwide Financial and says, "I've created a spreadsheet to show that if the rate premium is high enough and we slice it up to the appropriate investors, we can make a lot of money and it makes sense for everyone."
I can just see the chorus, sung by a line of middle-aged mortgage lenders and real estate professionals in pinstripe suits. While tow trucks take away their Porches in the background.
Please Wait | Channel4.com
Bit of a spam site but I'm posting it for the game. . . something for the brokers to pass the time.
Remember the Recessepression!
That was great!
I hope you remembered to wash your hands after that.
iceman said: "Imagine the scene in 2015 when some young shiny MBA comes into his boss' office at Landwide Financial and says, "I've created a spreadsheet to show that if the rate premium is high enough and we slice it up to the appropriate investors, we can make a lot of money and it makes sense for everyone."..."
I know you're just joshing, but you're a lot closer to a Universal Truth about markets than you realize.
Or was that satire that I just didn't get?
Sebastia
LIUNA Begins ´´Pigs at the Trough´´ Tour at KB Home Annual Meeting
LIUNA Begins ´´Pigs at the Trough´´ Tour at KB Home Annual Meeting
They've released a report opposing the builder bailout provisions in the proposed housing bill:
http://tinyurl.com/2rvp46
Bacon Dreamz this poster needs your help
Mortgage Grapevine: Math wizards...need secret formula
I'm totally disgusted with the lapdog mentality of the bubblevision STARS and their distinguished guests.
The "R" word. What the hell is that? It's less than juvenile, it's pitiful, that adults would be so sheepish as to refuse to call a spade a spade. They financial community sure isn't sheepish about welcoming handouts or taking everyone's $$$.
Pathetic.
Racer X, that's generally the kind of thing I see on that board that leaves me speechless and with a bad case of writer's block.
barely - Clinton only received a "B word"
Help, does anyone know arithmetic!
If they did, we wouldn't be owing more than we're earning these days, now, would we?
I guess here in the Silicon Valley, we are simply not subprime. I closely watch my old neighborhood, where we sold our house 3 years ago.
Out of 4 open houses last weekend, 3 are already sale pending. Prices have not dropped much, if at all. The real beauties are still bubbling upwards.
I am humbled.
But as Christina Ricci said in the movie "Addam's Family" when she was asked why she dressed like somebody had died....
"Wait."
Help, does anyone know arithmetic!
oh great, now i have to go get a new cup of coffee.
BAnned Commenter's post is deleted.
iceman, I know your just joking around, but I think 2015 is about 50 years too soon. Young MBA's in 2015 will be experts on too much leverage and have to listen to their crusty co-workers talk about the Golden Era of Risk. Their granchildren in 2060 will have no clue though.
Now we begin the generation of over-regulation and socialist progress.
Was probably CR having fun.... LOL
Now we begin the generation of over-regulation and socialist progress.
w | 04.02.08 - 4:15 pm | #
I think many of our "economic historians and theorists" are forgetting about this part of the cycle.
This has been damn interesting to watch unfold. Who needs TV?
Thank Glod somebody has the courage to trawl the swamps.
w said: "Young MBA's in 2015 will be experts on too much leverage"
But by then it'll be 'different this time'.
My theory is that our collective memory lasts only half the cycle length. If it takes, say, ten years for the cycle to repeat itself, collective memory only lasts five years.
I think the cycle is in us. So it takes three generations to repeat.
Triad (TGIC) is belly up it appears...
Tell me if this is a completely naive idea.
The Fed is supposedly being given some power to look at all books and they will have some unclear power to help market stability.
Wouldn't one way to do that be to get these derivative experts from various institutions and force/create a sort of derivatives clearinghouse where these IBs are FORCED to gradually unwind their positions?
And aren't Bear and JPM big counterparties to each other? Can they just cancel all those devirvatives contracts out? Done and done!
There's no question everything will backlash into a new era of heavy government regulation and socialized government serviced. We have no choice at this point.
Comrade Obama is just the right guy to lead us forward.
With fires being set by some clear losses, I've penned this partial ditty. Apologies to The Byrds.
For every subprime - burn, burn, burn,
There was a reason - burn, burn, burn.
And a crime for many persons cashing out HELOC's.
A time to buy, a time to appraise,
A time for no docs, a time to inflate.
A time skipping reason, a time to reset.
A time to foreclose, a time to vacate.
Feel free to add verse.
Well, that would make this a 'real crisis' then, by at least T's definition.
Don't know what happened...I'm duh poet
Bacon Dreamz this poster needs your help
Now I see where all the people who dropped out of the academic track because "math is too hard" ended up.
rich
Comrade Obama is just the right guy to lead us forward.
Is Hillary or Mccain any better? They dont know a hoot about economics. All three of them dont and all 3 dont have what it takes for the country to believe in them. Thats the problem. We need a rich untouchable businessman in the oval office for 8 years to straighten this mess out. Who that is? There are plenty but why would they take on such a task? Thats why we are all in deep doo. Alot of people believe Ron Paul is the man, but I can assure you of one thing, if by some alien miracle he were elected President he would be assasinated at the swearing in ceremony.
Kucinich for Prez
Ron Paul for Veep
and
Waxman for AG
Red Pill said: "...And aren't Bear and JPM big counterparties to each other? Can they just cancel all those derivatives contracts out? Done and done!"
Gonna wind up a bull thinking that way.
All those leveraged derivatives don't just go one way. A massive amount of them simply offset each other. If IB "A" is long $1 trillion and IB "B" is short $1 trillion, yes, that's a combined total of $2 trillion, but...
JMO, but that's the way a lot of this debt "problem" should be viewed.
Sebastia
Could you people take your lame "socialism" crap to some other blog?
If this turns into the same thing we saw the other day on a "political" post, I'll end up doing the same thing to it: shutting it off.
Really. The net is just full of sites where "Comrade" and "Capitalist Pig" are considered original witticisms or cogent thoughts. So, go there, please.
Here that stuff is just tedious.
I've created a spreadsheet to show that if the rate premium is high enough and we slice it up to the appropriate investors, we can make a lot of money and it makes sense for everyone
The funny thing is that, yes, that is a good model. IF you don't write loans for people who a) can't verify their income and b) (which is related to a) can't afford to pay the loan back. Otherwise the securitization process is fine.
Kucinich for Prez?
Bosch,
I'm from OH...he's a freakin' nut who can't even keep a city from default...and you want him to run the country? Well, since we are technically bankrupt as a country, at least he's experienced.
Terry said: "...My theory is that our collective memory lasts only half the cycle length. If it takes, say, ten years for the cycle to repeat itself, collective memory only lasts five years."
Well, that's one of the few cycle theories I could get behind, because it's based on something real (albeit difficult to measure).
And the really big market losses (1929-33, 1973-74, 2000-2002) are a generation apart because almost nobody remembers, or believes that it can happen again.
Sebastia
Meltdown Man
technically bankrupt in my book is the same as bankrupt. Just a bunch of semantics. I am getting sicker every day
ipodius, you must be disappointed that Everquest Financial
never happened, coz they totally would have hired you for PR.
why am I getting sicker. from articles like this
UPDATE 1-US Senate agrees in principle on housing bill-Reid
The expected legislation would provide a tax break to home builders....
UPDATE 2-Tax credits, FHA in US Senate housing bill-leaders
| Reuters
What is going on? the lunacy of it all....
Here that stuff is just tedious.
And besides, wasn't this tagged as a HUMOR thread? Sheesh. So many one-trick ponies.
And since all the news seems to come from Crywitness News - all bad, all the time.
I thought I'd inject an uplifting insight. The mail just came in. With so many corporations getting (perhaps deservedly) such a bad image, there's one (who's catalog arrives regularly) that should get a mention for its philanthropic efforts.
I speak of Victoria's Secret, for expanding the economic opportunities for so many unfortunate young women born with hip dysplasia and without nipples.
anon
despicable, disgusting there is simply no shame to the corporate lobby in Washington. is there a lobbyist in Washington for the citizens of the USA ? can i send him a check to legislate in the interest of the long term good of the country instead of catering to the largest handout ? isn't that what the people get for voting for these greedy foresightless scum bags who pride themselves on being Senators and Legislators.
Subprime = Prostitution (* Legalised)
Legalised Subprime = Legalised Prostitution
Legalised Subprime is AKA as FHA. You get the picture.
Tanta said: "Here that stuff is just tedious."
Thank you, ma chère.
Personally, I prefer the "Mortgage Servicing Pie" version of Mr. McLean's anthem to the version referenced over on BU...
YouTube - Mortgage Servicing Pie
Racer X writes:
Help, does anyone know arithmetic!
Reminds me of the brief time I worked in the the QC lab of a major bottler when they rolled out Dasani. We were supposed to multiply and divide by five constants to get some number. My memory is fuzzy but I think it was concerning the ozone level per liter. Anyway after performing this pointless exercise on a ten-key for an entire shift I consolidated them into one number. Well, I had to justify the math to the department head. It was surprisingly difficult to demonstrate the obvious to him. To be fair, he only held the position because they had forced the old QC manager out because she wouldn't play the games with the numbers, so it's safe to say they wanted an idiot in the position.
And I had moved into the lab from being a delivery driver so there was suspicion. Still, they wanted a Chemistry degree for my position and waived it for my Bio background, so he should have had some kind of higher ed.
I don't think we are safe yet from that Bright Young Genius in 2015. Until the dominant mood in the country and business community is "never again," we won't be safe even in the relatively near term. At the moment the dominant mood seems to be "Let's get the last of the bad news behind us so we can get back to business as usual," by which people still seem to mean the glory of the bubble days. I think there are many willing to admit that in 2006 and 2007 things got a little out of hand, but believe that 2005 was the gold standard...
David Freddoso on National Review Online
anaon
the article was just sad. Now we are giving additional tax breaks to home builders. for what. I want a tax break from buyin a piece of crap from a national homebuilder who wont fix a thing because they pulled out of my area.
The tax break is good for three years so total gift might be 33BN bucks. Well maybe we can round that off at 39BN/
Why don't we let the builders work it off by building in New Orleans?
anaon writes:
the article was just sad. Now we are giving additional tax breaks to home builders.
Well of course. The homebuilders are too big to fail.
And as long as the keep building, the taxpayers can keep on paying for them.
15 billion subsidy for the builders in the Senate plan. Straight out of the treasury via tax givebacks.
Well, now we know why the builder stocks have been going up!
Oh, and Isakson's brilliant tax credit for buying foreclosed homes means the government is subsidizing foreclosures over workouts. We are paying to make things worse. He should be impeached.
I have to admit, I threw out the IRS announcement about the rebates without reading it all. (It wasn't Tantaesque enough to hold my attention.)
Isn't the rebate taxable income?
Tanta,
Great laughter. Apologies should be given to the "preacher" in Ecclesiastes 3.
The folk singer, the name which escapes me right now, needs a bit of applause too.
I want the world to know that Fafblog is back. The world is saved! Now I have a blog to go to when the primary race and finally the race to Nov has driven me stark raving mad.
I made the decision a long time ago that if a candidate has a R after their name he/she doesn't get my vote.
I know that is stupid but that is what 8 years of gwb will do to yoo. Yoo what a slip of the fingers.
Tanta! Damm You!
Now you have driven me back to the old Testament and my favorite, Ecclesiastes.
Please get someone to do Ecc 1 justice with a bit of poetic snark. It begins:
Vanity of vanities, says the preacher, vanity of vanities! All is vanity. Then after Ecc comes some Old Testament porn: The Song of Solomon. Yahooo!
"I made the decision a long time ago that if a candidate has a R after their name he/she doesn't get my vote."
Republican
DemocRat
LibeRtaRian
GReen
NadeR
Independent
Works for me.
Tanta,
Can you provide a link?
Re: The net is just full of sites where "Comrade" and "Capitalist Pig" are considered original witticisms or cogent thoughts. So, go there, please.
Please get someone to do Ecc 1 justice with a bit of poetic snark. It begins:
Vanity of vanities, says the preacher, vanity of vanities! All is vanity
Here, have it in lolcat.
Ecclesiastes 1 - LOLCat Bible Translation Project
CR ate my link.
Nice to see that ALL the humor over there at BP isn't unintentional.
GP and Joy
Thanks