Where I live, we have lots of empty strip malls. It wouldnt surprise me if they didnt keep building them for another year or two. I think China has an enormous appetite for empty strip malls
I call BS on the lenders. "No one not the borrower or lender benefits when a customer cannot pay back a loan," says Joe Ohayon, a vice president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, one of several lenders that has had home loans in Green Valley Ranch. He says foreclosure "is only a last resort."
One they were more than happy to pursue during the boom. They told folks to sell or refi fast and hit them with every fee under the sun during the boom.
Now, nobody wins. Ha!
They made immense profits from their subprime sleaze operation at saxon, yet they spout this when they start to lose.
Commercial is next over the barrel, and it couldn't happen to nicer folks.
Blogs are, as New York Universitys Jay Rosen puts it, an extremely democratic form of journalism. On his PressThink blog, a site that has become essential for anyone looking at the evolution of journalism, he offers 10 points to explain why. Here are the first three:
The weblog comes out of the gift economy, whereas most (not all) of todays journalism comes out of the market economy.
Journalism had become the domain of professionals, and amateurs were sometimes welcomed into itas with the op-ed page. Whereas the weblog is the domain of ama teurs and professionals are the ones being welcomed to it.
In journalism since the mid-nineteenth century, barriers to entry have been high. With the weblog, barriers to entry are low: a computer, a Net connection, and a soft ware program like Blogger or Movable Type gets you there. Most of the capital costs required for the weblog to work have been sunk into the Internet itself, the largest machine in the world (with the possible exception of the international phone system.)
The nature of journalistic authority is shifting, he told me.
In a bottom-up, chaotic system like weblog world, certain sites are important without anyone designating that, Rosen said. Moreover, when the people formerly called the audience are now participants, thats a different kind of relationship.
Grassroots journalism has more problems than deciding whether anonymous posting is a good or bad idea. For starters, consider the trolls.
How do you know if a troll is on your site? The definition on Ward Cunninghams Wiki says it best:
A troll is deliberately crafted to provoke others with the inten tion of wasting their time and energy. A troll is a time thief. To troll is to steal from people. That is what makes trolling heinous.
Trolls can be identified by their disengagement from a con versation or argument. They do not believe what they say, but merely say it for effect.
Trolls are motivated by a desire for attention by people and cant or wont acquire it in a productive manner.
Someone may be insufferable, infuriating, fanatical, and an ignorant idiot to boot without being a troll.
I checked out a bank owned open house today. On Falling Star in Chula Vista, Ca. LP is $470,000. The previous owner paid over $700,000. The entire neighborhood is a war zone with bank owned signs. This and all the other houses around it sold new in the mid $600,000's-$700,000's. Zillow the street and pull up previous sale prices.
Only the first few homes have gone through the forclosure or sale process. By my estimation the entire neighborhood (save a few crazy hold-outs) will forclose over the next several years. They are just too upsidedown to stay. That means that for this neighborhood, and thousands like them across the nation, the banks are in the very very early stages of taking the losses yet to come.
The realtor, a realist, told me she assists on these community workshops to help people save themselves. She said that the banks, whose reps show up to help, get very very mad at her when her advice to most is to simply walk away. She told me she tells them it's a business decision. You must chose your family over the banks.
By the way, back on topic, this neighborhood has a vons and accompanying strip mall about halfway done just up the street.
They new communities supposed to support these stores are frozen with no new building, and many empty homes.
Another Albertson's store, about 3 miles north, is brand new and huge. The place is a ghost town, beautiful and great to shop in as there are more cashiers than customers.
Rob Dawg, I'll add the sum when I get a chance - but this post was just to show non-residential spending / investment - and how we can be pretty sure it declined in Q1.
REBear, Goldman's GDP estimate, as of yesterday, was -0.5% in Q1 and -1.0% in Q2. I'll look around for more.
"Only the first few homes have gone through the forclosure or sale process."
Just to clarify, there are probably 20-30 homes for sale in the neighbhorhood of about 200-300 homes, so just the first 10% seem to have caused the banks heartache. I would have to guess 80-90% of the remaining 90% will eventually do the same.
Someone may be insufferable, infuriating, fanatical, and an ignorant idiot to boot without being a troll.
i think this is where i fit in...
only because i see this GE moneyplus thing as a total scam ...i mean , really 3-4% interest when t bills are sub1 ! .. exactly where/what is ge going to do with the funds , and also have it ready at a moments notice for withdrawal. I smell problems.
Things are going to get worse believe it or not.
Average Joe | 04.05.08 - 6:36 pm | #
We are working on month six of FC's = sales. Feb was a dead heat and March is still updating. Yes,I still see moving vans leaving the hood more than moving in...
doom writes:
Surely, there must be some good news somewhere.
doom,
As bad as SW Florida is,property is selling. It is selling at 2002-2003 prices and still dropping. I figure we will end up around 1999-2000 unless prices drastically overshoot on the downside. This works out to a 60-70% drop from the highest point.
Just remember,cheaper properties drop quicker due to the ability to take a smaller loss...
get way more done in a given day than the lackeys who waster 2 - 3 hrs' per day commuting, way too many meetings, get repeatedly interrupted by aimless co-workers, then find excuses why they get anything done !
Wow ! two posts about Denver in the last couple of days and even though I live around here ( more Boulder than Denver, but still ) I can contribute nothing to the main post.
After 4 years I do of course know something about the area( Cornish and Italian coal miners - coal mining in WINTER only, natch) , its history and its geography, demographics but the stuff these last two articles have discussed seems a world away from me.
Of course I don't even get the Denver Post or the Rocky Mountain News (Boulder daily ) and I don't watch network news at all nor do I tune into local stations well perhaps PBS and NPR but that's it.
With the net, online video phones, phones - people in England, Canada, Philly, AZ, New England, India, France, Turkey, Australia and LA of course seem to be closer than ever.
The alienation concept of Marxism seems almost complete. I live here but I left my heart in Los Angeles - or was it London or ...
If Goldman GDP estimates hold good, the 2008 recession will have less impact than the 2001 recession.
Ummm...these guys were selling shit that they were shorting at the same time. If you want to bank on their mild recession calls...don't date my daughter.
By Javier Blas in Addis Ababa
Thursday Apr 3 2008 20:00
Rising food prices could spread social unrest across Africa after triggering riots in Niger, Senegal, Cameroon and Burkina Faso, African ministers and senior agriculture diplomats have warned.
Kanayo Nwanze, the vice-president of the United Nations' International Fund for Agriculture, told a conference in Ethiopia that food riots could become a common feature, particularly after the price of rice has doubled in three months.
"The social unrest we have seen in places such as Burkina Faso, Senegal or Cameroon may become common in other places in Africa," Mr Nwanze said.
In some parts of the world the price of rice trumps everything else.
"Ummm...these guys were selling shit that they were shorting at the same time. If you want to bank on their mild recession calls...don't date my daughter."
Walked into the neighborhood coffee house this afternoon and the owner was manning the counter. The weekend counter girl quit and he can't afford to replace her. Business is 'way off; he cleared $200 last month and doesn't even take a salary. He's been there 30 years.
12th percentile,
We live in NJ and work in the tech sector. My wife who works for a start up hasn't been paid since Mar 1. Last week an additional 10% 'efficiency was realized' at my work place. A former colleague after passing an interview was told that the position was no longer available. The list goes on.
Think about it for one moment. What wouThe operation works like this: exporters (or speculators) bring USD to Saudi Arabias or Taiwans central bank (FCB), etc, etc, and exchange USD for local currency. FCB prints the money to fund the USD exchange, and then ships the USD hot potato back to the US via securities purchases. Export/speculators take the local currency and get a hold of goods, commodities, and materials causing even more maladjustment, crack up boom hoarding, and now hyper-inflation. This results in too many trashy US securities (and debt to foreigners) outstanding, and too much local currency abroad. In the example of hoarding I note from the March 29th Economist, an article called Pile Up a chart (that I cant replicate) showing 60 million tonnes of iron ore stockpiles sitting in Chinas ports. Thats up from 40 million tonnes last summer, and is probably just the tip of the crack up boom.
Now that the USD recyclers economies are being wrecked in an orgy of suicidal self-abuse, one would think that the dots would have been connected long ago. It is no longer just that these FCBs hold severely overpriced Treasury and housing agency securities ($2.215 trillion worth), now that have infected the entire planet with hyper-inflationary conditions. It truly appears that they intend to wait for the palaces to be stormed before doing anything (too late) about it.
Was doing some work on the car today and listening to terrestrial radio for some strange reason when I heard another version of those NAR commercials that say "we'd like you to know that now is the BEST time to buy".
This one was clearly directed at commercial real estate and "multi-family properties". When the announcer said that "we'd like you to know that the commercial real estate market is in great shape" I chortled and then heaved a little bit in my mouth.
Although you have to be suspicious of advertising that says that commercial real estate is in great shape, it's still not clear to me that it will go the route of subprime. Yes, loans came from the same lenders. Yes, multifamily acts like single-family with a lag. Yes, there was a lot of overbuilding in growth areas like Las Vegas. But, default rates are still very low. How are you so sure that CRE is a landmine?
So I'm just returning from 4 months off - my wife and I went traveling. I had to take a break from the trading desk and all the mindless moronic bulls on the various blogs. I'm happy to see they are licking their wounds and back at their days jobs. Thanks for playing! I'm also glad to see some of the same quality contributors are still hanging around these parts. You may or may not have seen this, but it's pretty good. Not my normal source for info or analysis, but I enjoyed it.
How are you so sure that CRE is a landmine?
CRE. It is all in the numbers. RE by definition is leveraged. Last boom cycle took leverage to a new level. It is all a matter of being able to cover the interest expense. If you don't get enough rental income how do you do that. The rollover/refi game is over!
Regarding Gene Epstein of Barron's, he's a member of Kudlow's "greatest story never told" club. Last fall he didn't see a recession. Of course, now it's going to be short and shallow. Oh....and a rebound in the second half.
He assumes the 80k job loss in March is the worst number we'll see. Yet, he doesn't even mention that this was the weakest recovery for jobs since WWII, and we've already lost half the jobs that were 'created' last year in just the last 3 months. And the jump in weekly unemployment claims and continuing claims is startling.
He compares the current job losses to the 2001 and 1991 recessions as 'not that bad', but the BLS is using the birth/death model which 'created' most of the jobs last year, and I believe wasn't even used in 1991, and has been tweaked since 2000.
He's basically saying that we're half way through, apparently ignoring other data which is deteriorating and shows no sign of bottoming. Factory orders last week fell twice what was expected.
Wasn't he one of those that thought sub-prime a non-issue because it was contained and too small relative to GDP to matter? His columns that he wrote the last few years show him mainly to be a supply side apologist for the Bush administration, shilling propped up data and spinning bad economic news into a dishonest, "everything's fine", positive light and misleading his readers every step of the way. What a hack.
CRE question - my impression is that the cap rates for CRE was taken down to very low levels - and the refi/resale rollover effect masked almost all distress (problem? no problem, CRE only goes up!)...quite similar to the low default rates in residential...until recently.
So did the (presumably) insanely low cap rates contribute to overpriced CRE a factor in addition to the leverage that may contribute to a CRE downturn?
The Charlotte Observer
FDIC Chief: We could do more. "We should have been on top of our game."
(Well, yes the FDIC should have been doing a hell of a lot more Sheila but Bushie Don Powell wouldn't allow it!) Charlotte.com
The combination of underlying fundamentals (rent growth and occupancy rates) getting worse during a credit crunch making it difficult to buy or refinance a property.
Just like homeowners expected to get out of their loans b/c their home appreciated in value, CRE owners expected to get out of their loans because they expected occupancies to continue to get better, rents to continue to rise, capitalization rates to stay at historic lows, and financing to remain cheap.
First
two first in two days
i dont seem to have a life
Second! Redefine your objective and you can always come out on top. Like MBIA.
CR,
If it doesn't mess up the first graph too much could you add the sum of the two datums for a combined construction spending line?
Third. Touching. Aliens. Momentum is a bitch. The pendulum stopped and is coming the other way.
Damn. Fourth or fifth. Dimensions I know little about except real estate is in the dumps there, too.
Where I live, we have lots of empty strip malls. It wouldnt surprise me if they didnt keep building them for another year or two. I think China has an enormous appetite for empty strip malls
Surely, there must be some good news somewhere.
Nope, and don't call me Shirley.
CR,
When can experts start narrowing down Q1 GDP? Or is there no way to narrow down before Apr 30?
Thanks!
One comment from the last article:
I call BS on the lenders. "No one not the borrower or lender benefits when a customer cannot pay back a loan," says Joe Ohayon, a vice president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, one of several lenders that has had home loans in Green Valley Ranch. He says foreclosure "is only a last resort."
One they were more than happy to pursue during the boom. They told folks to sell or refi fast and hit them with every fee under the sun during the boom.
Now, nobody wins. Ha!
They made immense profits from their subprime sleaze operation at saxon, yet they spout this when they start to lose.
Commercial is next over the barrel, and it couldn't happen to nicer folks.
Someday this war's gonna end...
OT:
We the Media
By Dan Gillmor
We the Media - by Dan Gillmor [Authorama]
Blogs are, as New York Universitys Jay Rosen puts it, an extremely democratic form of journalism. On his PressThink blog, a site that has become essential for anyone looking at the evolution of journalism, he offers 10 points to explain why. Here are the first three:
The nature of journalistic authority is shifting, he told me.
In a bottom-up, chaotic system like weblog world, certain sites are important without anyone designating that, Rosen said. Moreover, when the people formerly called the audience are now participants, thats a different kind of relationship.
Trolls and Other Annoyances
We the Media - 9. Trolls, Spin, and the Boundaries of Trust (by Dan Gillmor)
Grassroots journalism has more problems than deciding whether anonymous posting is a good or bad idea. For starters, consider the trolls.
How do you know if a troll is on your site? The definition on Ward Cunninghams Wiki says it best:
A troll is deliberately crafted to provoke others with the inten tion of wasting their time and energy. A troll is a time thief. To troll is to steal from people. That is what makes trolling heinous.
Trolls can be identified by their disengagement from a con versation or argument. They do not believe what they say, but merely say it for effect.
Trolls are motivated by a desire for attention by people and cant or wont acquire it in a productive manner.
Someone may be insufferable, infuriating, fanatical, and an ignorant idiot to boot without being a troll.
OT, as usual, but here is a great article on people starting to walk away.
Ghost Town USA | Marketplace From American Public Media
I checked out a bank owned open house today. On Falling Star in Chula Vista, Ca. LP is $470,000. The previous owner paid over $700,000. The entire neighborhood is a war zone with bank owned signs. This and all the other houses around it sold new in the mid $600,000's-$700,000's. Zillow the street and pull up previous sale prices.
Only the first few homes have gone through the forclosure or sale process. By my estimation the entire neighborhood (save a few crazy hold-outs) will forclose over the next several years. They are just too upsidedown to stay. That means that for this neighborhood, and thousands like them across the nation, the banks are in the very very early stages of taking the losses yet to come.
The realtor, a realist, told me she assists on these community workshops to help people save themselves. She said that the banks, whose reps show up to help, get very very mad at her when her advice to most is to simply walk away. She told me she tells them it's a business decision. You must chose your family over the banks.
Things are going to get worse believe it or not.
By the way, back on topic, this neighborhood has a vons and accompanying strip mall about halfway done just up the street.
They new communities supposed to support these stores are frozen with no new building, and many empty homes.
Another Albertson's store, about 3 miles north, is brand new and huge. The place is a ghost town, beautiful and great to shop in as there are more cashiers than customers.
Who says this housing/CRE bubble is all bad.
I'll bet the blue line in the first chart is hoping it doesn't get all pointy like the red line.
Rob Dawg, I'll add the sum when I get a chance - but this post was just to show non-residential spending / investment - and how we can be pretty sure it declined in Q1.
REBear, Goldman's GDP estimate, as of yesterday, was -0.5% in Q1 and -1.0% in Q2. I'll look around for more.
Best to all.
"Only the first few homes have gone through the forclosure or sale process."
Just to clarify, there are probably 20-30 homes for sale in the neighbhorhood of about 200-300 homes, so just the first 10% seem to have caused the banks heartache. I would have to guess 80-90% of the remaining 90% will eventually do the same.
CR: a picture is worth a 1000 words! Any guesses on Q1 GDP?
What do you think about Epstein "Goldilocks Recession" call in Barron's today?
Anonymous | 04.05.08 - 6:28 pm |
A post on trolling at CR? U a troll too?
Someone may be insufferable, infuriating, fanatical, and an ignorant idiot to boot without being a troll.
i think this is where i fit in...
only because i see this GE moneyplus thing as a total scam ...i mean , really 3-4% interest when t bills are sub1 ! .. exactly where/what is ge going to do with the funds , and also have it ready at a moments notice for withdrawal. I smell problems.
Things are going to get worse believe it or not.
Average Joe | 04.05.08 - 6:36 pm | #
We are working on month six of FC's = sales. Feb was a dead heat and March is still updating. Yes,I still see moving vans leaving the hood more than moving in...
doom writes:
Surely, there must be some good news somewhere.
doom,
As bad as SW Florida is,property is selling. It is selling at 2002-2003 prices and still dropping. I figure we will end up around 1999-2000 unless prices drastically overshoot on the downside. This works out to a 60-70% drop from the highest point.
Just remember,cheaper properties drop quicker due to the ability to take a smaller loss...
Chris
If Goldman GDP estimates hold good, the 2008 recession will have less impact than the 2001 recession.
EconStats - GDP data | GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | GDP - BEA release : 10/29/2009
Request on charts like this: Please enlarge just the last year so we can more easily see what has happened.
Thanks
@Octavio Richetta - I have looked for the article you mentioned in Barron's and can't find it. Could you post a link, if you're on-line? Thanks.
Virtual office rules !
get way more done in a given day than the lackeys who waster 2 - 3 hrs' per day commuting, way too many meetings, get repeatedly interrupted by aimless co-workers, then find excuses why they get anything done !
i.e. why they CAN'T get anything done !
Wow ! two posts about Denver in the last couple of days and even though I live around here ( more Boulder than Denver, but still ) I can contribute nothing to the main post.
After 4 years I do of course know something about the area( Cornish and Italian coal miners - coal mining in WINTER only, natch) , its history and its geography, demographics but the stuff these last two articles have discussed seems a world away from me.
Of course I don't even get the Denver Post or the Rocky Mountain News (Boulder daily ) and I don't watch network news at all nor do I tune into local stations well perhaps PBS and NPR but that's it.
With the net, online video phones, phones - people in England, Canada, Philly, AZ, New England, India, France, Turkey, Australia and LA of course seem to be closer than ever.
The alienation concept of Marxism seems almost complete. I live here but I left my heart in Los Angeles - or was it London or ...
-K
Re: above - Wrong thread - Please ignore.
-K
Suecris: this is what you need: NBER Stays Behind the Curtain on Recession - Economic Beat - Gene Epstein - Barrons.com
If Goldman GDP estimates hold good, the 2008 recession will have less impact than the 2001 recession.
Ummm...these guys were selling shit that they were shorting at the same time. If you want to bank on their mild recession calls...don't date my daughter.
Octavio Richetta
always glad to see your posts at CR.
i have learned from your contributions at RGE monitor (Roubini).
Fear of unrest mounts as hunger spreads
By Javier Blas in Addis Ababa
Thursday Apr 3 2008 20:00
Rising food prices could spread social unrest across Africa after triggering riots in Niger, Senegal, Cameroon and Burkina Faso, African ministers and senior agriculture diplomats have warned.
Kanayo Nwanze, the vice-president of the United Nations' International Fund for Agriculture, told a conference in Ethiopia that food riots could become a common feature, particularly after the price of rice has doubled in three months.
"The social unrest we have seen in places such as Burkina Faso, Senegal or Cameroon may become common in other places in Africa," Mr Nwanze said.
In some parts of the world the price of rice trumps everything else.
"Ummm...these guys were selling shit that they were shorting at the same time. If you want to bank on their mild recession calls...don't date my daughter."
Walked into the neighborhood coffee house this afternoon and the owner was manning the counter. The weekend counter girl quit and he can't afford to replace her. Business is 'way off; he cleared $200 last month and doesn't even take a salary. He's been there 30 years.
That's a recession call. And not for a mild one.
12th percentile,
We live in NJ and work in the tech sector. My wife who works for a start up hasn't been paid since Mar 1. Last week an additional 10% 'efficiency was realized' at my work place. A former colleague after passing an interview was told that the position was no longer available. The list goes on.
Think about it for one moment. What wouThe operation works like this: exporters (or speculators) bring USD to Saudi Arabias or Taiwans central bank (FCB), etc, etc, and exchange USD for local currency. FCB prints the money to fund the USD exchange, and then ships the USD hot potato back to the US via securities purchases. Export/speculators take the local currency and get a hold of goods, commodities, and materials causing even more maladjustment, crack up boom hoarding, and now hyper-inflation. This results in too many trashy US securities (and debt to foreigners) outstanding, and too much local currency abroad. In the example of hoarding I note from the March 29th Economist, an article called Pile Up a chart (that I cant replicate) showing 60 million tonnes of iron ore stockpiles sitting in Chinas ports. Thats up from 40 million tonnes last summer, and is probably just the tip of the crack up boom.
Now that the USD recyclers economies are being wrecked in an orgy of suicidal self-abuse, one would think that the dots would have been connected long ago. It is no longer just that these FCBs hold severely overpriced Treasury and housing agency securities ($2.215 trillion worth), now that have infected the entire planet with hyper-inflationary conditions. It truly appears that they intend to wait for the palaces to be stormed before doing anything (too late) about it.
ld you do with all those dollars?
Was doing some work on the car today and listening to terrestrial radio for some strange reason when I heard another version of those NAR commercials that say "we'd like you to know that now is the BEST time to buy".
This one was clearly directed at commercial real estate and "multi-family properties". When the announcer said that "we'd like you to know that the commercial real estate market is in great shape" I chortled and then heaved a little bit in my mouth.
When will those pesky "REALTORS" learn?
doug @10:37PM
Although you have to be suspicious of advertising that says that commercial real estate is in great shape, it's still not clear to me that it will go the route of subprime. Yes, loans came from the same lenders. Yes, multifamily acts like single-family with a lag. Yes, there was a lot of overbuilding in growth areas like Las Vegas. But, default rates are still very low. How are you so sure that CRE is a landmine?
Hotels, office space and retail space is way overbuilt in most markets and it will take years to work down the excess.
Industrial and distribution space is spotty but there's excess capacity in many places industry has abandoned.
Condos, condo hotels, and mixed use condos/retail are an unmitigated disaster.
Apartments are okay and might improve over the next few years.
So I'm just returning from 4 months off - my wife and I went traveling. I had to take a break from the trading desk and all the mindless moronic bulls on the various blogs. I'm happy to see they are licking their wounds and back at their days jobs. Thanks for playing! I'm also glad to see some of the same quality contributors are still hanging around these parts. You may or may not have seen this, but it's pretty good. Not my normal source for info or analysis, but I enjoyed it.
YouTube -
Regarding Gene Epstein of Barron's, he's a member of Kudlow's "greatest story never told" club. Last fall he didn't see a recession. Of course, now it's going to be short and shallow. Oh....and a rebound in the second half.
He assumes the 80k job loss in March is the worst number we'll see. Yet, he doesn't even mention that this was the weakest recovery for jobs since WWII, and we've already lost half the jobs that were 'created' last year in just the last 3 months. And the jump in weekly unemployment claims and continuing claims is startling.
He compares the current job losses to the 2001 and 1991 recessions as 'not that bad', but the BLS is using the birth/death model which 'created' most of the jobs last year, and I believe wasn't even used in 1991, and has been tweaked since 2000.
He's basically saying that we're half way through, apparently ignoring other data which is deteriorating and shows no sign of bottoming. Factory orders last week fell twice what was expected.
Wasn't he one of those that thought sub-prime a non-issue because it was contained and too small relative to GDP to matter? His columns that he wrote the last few years show him mainly to be a supply side apologist for the Bush administration, shilling propped up data and spinning bad economic news into a dishonest, "everything's fine", positive light and misleading his readers every step of the way. What a hack.
CRE question - my impression is that the cap rates for CRE was taken down to very low levels - and the refi/resale rollover effect masked almost all distress (problem? no problem, CRE only goes up!)...quite similar to the low default rates in residential...until recently.
So did the (presumably) insanely low cap rates contribute to overpriced CRE a factor in addition to the leverage that may contribute to a CRE downturn?
The Charlotte Observer
FDIC Chief: We could do more. "We should have been on top of our game."
(Well, yes the FDIC should have been doing a hell of a lot more Sheila but Bushie Don Powell wouldn't allow it!)
Charlotte.com
The tape bomb in CRE is similar to residential:
The combination of underlying fundamentals (rent growth and occupancy rates) getting worse during a credit crunch making it difficult to buy or refinance a property.
Just like homeowners expected to get out of their loans b/c their home appreciated in value, CRE owners expected to get out of their loans because they expected occupancies to continue to get better, rents to continue to rise, capitalization rates to stay at historic lows, and financing to remain cheap.