Wall Street positive spin-We think this and fed ex warning should help oil and gas inventories rise, effectively reducing gas prices and inflation substantially in the 2nd quarter! Buy! Buy!
Interesting that AMZN seems not to care at all...as if its biz is not directly related to ups/fedex EPS (fedex said something about growth two weeks ago)
"What is fairly clearly the case from the data, is that if adjustable rate mortgages weren't available, the purchases (of homes) still would've occurred," he [Greenspan] said.
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials anticipated that the economy would shrink in the first half of the year, with some concerned about ``a prolonged and severe economic downturn.''
``Many participants thought some contraction in economic activity in the first half of 2008 now appeared likely,'' the Fed said in minutes of the March 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released in Washington today.
bunch of freaking doomers
they know nothing
wrightB4eva(tm)
Markel, I mentioned the pending stats briefly this morning - I don't follow them too closely, but they show March / April sales will probably be weak - I'd guess in the 4.8 million (SAAR) range.
Pending home sales at all-time low
Realtors' group says its index of homes under contract to sell fell sharply in February.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: April 8, 2008: 11:00 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- An index of homes under contract for sale fell more than expected in February, reaching the lowest level since the index's 2001 debut, according to a report released Tuesday.
The National Association of Realtors' (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index fell to 84.6 in February, down 1.9% from a revised reading of 86.2 in January and down 21.4% versus the same period last year.
jg, man, I hope you are wrong. Clearly there are downside risks, but I still think a lingering recession (at least lingering effects from the recession) with unemployment reaching 6.5% - maybe 7% is the most likely scenario. I'd guess real GDP will decline around 1% or so this year - a depression would probably mean a 10% decline in GDP!
I'm in retail and up 22% YOY. Why? I sell homebrewing and winemaking supplies. Want in? Sorry, the worldwide shortage of hops is a huge barrier to entry. BTW, we've always considered ourselves a contrary indicator. Peace.
Well, my UPS visits are up because I either shop locally or shop online and have stuff delivered, since I hate wasting gas driving all over. My neighbor has UPS pick up shipments for their small business from her van. They used to have a warehouse space, but closed it.
Maybe UPS just needs to start appealing to people to shop online, and hurry along the CRE decline...
That Citi deal is great. The private equity folks break the bank, then get paid to put it back together:
"Although details of the deal were still being worked out, people familiar with the matter said Apollo Management, the Blackstone Group and TPG would buy the loan portfolio at a discount that could come in at about 90 cents on the dollar.
The Citi portfolio includes loans used to finance acquisitions by Apollo, Blackstone and TPG . . ."
Always want to get hops to grow for shade/aroma in AZ(and sell to the local microbrewery) but the hopsellers don't move the rhizomes til marh and I need to plant them in Dec/jan to get the 2 growing seasons.
UPS is exposed to a double whammy....high oil prices and a recession. They will have to lower their earnings guidance again shortly.
OT but I'm amazed at the opinions of analysts that suggest manufacturing won't significantly contract and will be spurred by a weak dollar. IMO manufacturing has been - for too long - outsourced that in the US, one cannot use it, as a measure for any meaningful/analytical prognosis.
April 8 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its
counterparty credit rating on MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (MGIC Investment)
to 'BBB' from 'A-' and its counterparty credit and financial strength ratings
on the mortgage insurance subsidiaries (MGIC) to 'A' from 'AA-'. The ratings
were removed from CreditWatch
Old Republic International Corp. (ORI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (ORI) to 'A' from 'A+' and its
counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on ORI's core subsidiaries
to 'AA-' from 'AA'
PMI Group Inc. (PMI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (PMI Group) to 'BBB+' from 'A' and its counterparty
credit and financial strength ratings on PMI Group's mortgage insurance
subsidiaries in the U.S. (PMI) and Europe (PMI Europe) to 'A+' from 'AA
SAN FRANCISCO (Thomson Financial) - PMI Group Inc. said late Tuesday its claims paying resources are unaffected by Standard & Poor's downgrade of the company's ratings.
Earlier Tuesday, S&P lowered its counterparty credit rating on PMI Group Inc. to 'BBB+' from 'A' and its counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on PMI Group's mortgage insurance subsidiaries in the U.S. and Europe to 'A+' from 'AA'.
"Time to short eBay"... seriously, are you kidding? It hasn't been around that long... but if you take them at their word, "America's Garage Sale' or whatever they say... eBay's gonna be PLENTY busy selling used plasma tvs, BMWs, photo gear... all the HELOC-aquired toys.
And hops? I am proud to say, that I watch the crop carefully... every other day on my way to Portland via Hwy 99, I drive through hundreds of acres of the climbing vines. Impressive. Tasty, too.
"PMI Group Inc. said late Tuesday its claims paying resources are unaffected by Standard & Poor's downgrade of the company's ratings."
The article later goes on to state that PMI called S&P "little bitches" and offered to fight them on the street corner. Furthermore, PMI said that there was no mortgage crisis nor was there an overbuilding of homes. Finally, PMI declared that Santa Claus is dead while they beat four puppies with a stick.
The latest signs come from Standard & Poor's, which on Tuesday reported that technical default notices have been reported for about $159 billion of subprime mortgage bonds.
The swelling of those defaults means liquidations may be on the rise as investors known as "super senior" holders of the securities increasingly force sales of the bonds to squeeze out junior investors, who are farther back in line to claim those assets.
Moreover, the sales are coming at the worst time, when doubts about the true value of the securities remain. Selling in a thin market could depress prices and choke off financing for corporations, potentially extending a credit crisis that has gripped global markets since last year.
"Investors may be trying to liquidate more than $150 billion of securities when there are no or few buyers," said Brian Yelvington, an analyst at CreditSights, a New York-based research firm. "Gravedancers won't enter the market knowing there are forced sales about to hit the pipeline."
Relevant quote:
"Our most recent macroeconomic forecast shows unemployment reaching 5.8% in
2009, and there is considerable uncertainty in the job markets. The
deterioration in the housing markets has also been worse than our expectations.
Now, we believe median home prices will decline 20% from the peak in 2006. By
contrast, the forecasts we used in November 2007 assumed a decline of 11%.
As a result of the deterioration in the housing and job markets, Standard &
Poor's believes mortgage insurers' operating results for 2008 and 2009 will
compare unfavorably with our previous expectations. Our current forecasts
predict that most companies will not generate an underwriting profit until
2010, but individual results will vary."
And even more hits in this near the bottom:
". In
the short term, replacing the capacity provided by those mortgage insurers that
Standard & Poor's rates below 'AA-' would be extremely difficult. Standard &
Poor's estimates that firms now rated below 'AA-' accounted for 58% of the
industry's flow market share in 2007. The other mortgage insurers do not have
the capital to absorb all of this volume. Standard & Poor's would likely
downgrade any mortgage insurer that loses its eligibility to insure mortgages
sold to the GSEs.
In addition to the rating actions on mortgage insurers, Standard & Poor's
lowered its counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on PMI Guaranty
Co. to 'A+' from 'AA', removed them from CreditWatch negative, and assigned a
negative outlook. Standard & Poor's also placed its 'AA' counterparty credit,
financial strength, and financial strength ratings on Radian Asset Assurance
Inc. on CreditWatch negative."
Weeeeellll, that about kills the non GSE mortgage paper market.
Buckle up and get ready folks, here comes the next big air pocket for equities!!!
OT but I'm amazed at the opinions of analysts that suggest manufacturing won't significantly contract and will be spurred by a weak dollar. IMO manufacturing has been - for too long - outsourced that in the US, one cannot use it, as a measure for any meaningful/analytical prognosis.
I have to agree with the analysts that a lot of industries aren't going to contract. Many industries are now completely acylical and highly resistant to economic downturns. Consider the telegraph industry, residential and commercial coal gas distribution, sales and manufacturing of typewriters, as well as service providers such as milkmen. They should all see very little decline in business activity or income even during a severe recession...
"What is fairly clearly the case from the data, is that if adjustable rate mortgages weren't available, the purchases (of homes) still would've occurred," he [Greenspan] said.
What is fairly clearly the case is that you shouldn't trust people who use more than one adverb per sentence.
I truly feel terrible for the small business owners of the U.S. and world. They have no time to monitor money supply and lending standards. They relied upon the Federal Reserve for prudent stewardship.
If you guys imagine purchasing agents in the US aren't moving towards domestic sourcing, then you're mistaken.
From the perspective of an industrial supply/industrial controls warehousing and distribution operation, I can tell you that pricing and on-time delivery considerations are driving our firm in the only practical direction: inventories, already significantly sourced here in the US, reflect a sharply rising domestically-manufactured component.
Dryfly does this far better than I ever will - I've pursued a life at one remove from the family business and am not in the thick of it. But I keep an eye on it, and I'm puzzled by those who imagine this country "doesn't make anything".
Perhaps some of you aren't involved in, or are unfamiliar with manufacturing in the US? And perhaps that colors your impressions?
The basic "your ratings suck" statement from the newly downgraded firms is priceless. All the private equity guys buying back into firms like WM must be a form of dollar cost averaging for all the bad paper they already hold.
Greenspan: Could use public funds to settle housing woes
Tue Apr 8, 2008 5:05pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday the Bush administration should look back to the 1980s savings and loan crisis for lessons on settling the housing crisis by committing taxpayers' money to the project.
"I think if you're going to deal with a situation like this it's an issue for appropriated funds of the Treasury to set up something like the Resolution Trust Corporation, which as you remember was very successful in resolving the S&L crisis," Greenspan said on CNBC television.
The RTC was set up to liquidate assets of troubled savings and loan associations that had been declared insolvent by the Office of Thrift Supervision. It operated between 1989 and 1995 and closed or helped resolved hundreds of thrifts, many of which had gotten into trouble through sloppy lending practices
IMO, this whole debate on recession severity is based on jobs.
Tell me when jobs will turn positive and continue into a positive trend. Then tell me what kind of jobs they will be. I see flat to negative job growth continuing for a long time.
Until somebody provides an answer on how jobs will be created, how can you say anything but deep recession or depression?
Perhaps some of you aren't involved in, or are unfamiliar with manufacturing in the US? And perhaps that colors your impressions?
Problem is that manufacturing in the US is so darn productive. It doesn't take a lot of people on the line to keep the US stocked with measuring cups.
I remember back-in-the-day when Walmart still used to pretend that it cared where it bought its stuff. They had a big sign that touted the six jobs that Walmart supported by buying US measuring cups. I remember looking at that and thinking, six people to put cups on every shelf in every Walmart in America.
Most people in the US don't know anybody who really makes stuff. There aren't a lot of them. They don't even know somebody who knows somebody who makes stuff.
Of course, they know a lot of people that are indirectly involved in making stuff. People who market stuff, sell stuff, design stuff, transport stuff, maintain and account for stuff.
But, it's hard to wrap your head around the fact that those people are much, much greater in number than the people who actually make the stuff.
GAO spending audit-Govt credit cards.
Hey where's my server?
snip of content
The review of card spending at more than a dozen departments from 2005 to 2006 found that nearly 41 percent of roughly $14 billion in credit-card purchases, whether legitimate or questionable, did not follow procedure either because they were not properly authorized or they had not been signed for by an independent third party as called for in federal rules to deter fraud.
For purchases over $2,500, nearly half or 48 percent were unauthorized or improperly received.
Out of a sample of purchases totaling $2.7 million, the government could not account for hundreds of laptop computers, iPods and digital cameras worth more than $1.8 million. In one case, the U.S. Army could not say what happened to computer items making up 16 server configurations, each of which cost nearly $100,000
C recovered most of today's slide AH on the sale. I wonder if recessionary earnings reports will even dent the Bulls' enthusiasm to squeeze the shorts...
Kicker, I always like your perspective - well, usually.
But I'm not describing the makers of tea towels here. We handle components for refineries, mining, chemical processing, power distribution and production, jet engine manufacturing, pharmaceutical lab processing, bridge and highway construction, and for many industrial processes which require automated control systems.
And that's just one company. And it's not measuring cups.
But, it's hard to wrap your head around the fact that those people are much, much greater in number than the people who actually make the stuff.
I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. Every person who is responsible for bringing the materials together necessary to make stuff is just as responsible for making the stuff as the guy who screws in the screw or turns the dial on the machine. Without capital, land, and natural resources, stuff doesn't get made.
There's a great essay about this written by Leonard Read called "I, Pencil" which documents the miracle of the creation of an object we take for granted. It takes thousands of people working together to create something as pedestrian as a pencil. No one guy "makes" it.
But I'm not describing the makers of tea towels here.
Sorry, I didn't mean to give that impression.
I used measuring cups and Walmart because most people can relate to the numbers.
My point is that manufacturing in most industries has become so highly productive that there isn't a need for the same number of line workers that we had in the 70's and 80's.
We look at China and blame them for "stealing" our manufacturing jobs but don't forget that between '95 and '02 China lost 15 million manufacturing jobs to productivity gains.
on UPS ... What isn't clear here is how much of UPS revenue decline is due to the general economy and how much is due to increased competition.
For the small and very small shipper, USPS is giving UPS a major run for their money. USPS Click N Ship combined with Carrier Pickup easily duplicates (and in some cases exceeds) UPS service (and you can ship 6 times a week). I'd call this issue a combination of the economy and competition.
About eBay ... recall what Warren Buffett said about businesses that have 'a moat' around them to fend off competitors. The only moat eBay has is its internal inertia. Lots of people are unhappy with eBay (fee structures, etc). New, less expensive competitors are popping up right and left (look at eCrater and Blujay, just to name a few). eBay may be the big dog on the block, but there are lots of others nipping at the edges.
I'm always ambivalent in discussions of productivity v full employment as I'm no great fan of make-work, and prefer to see gains in productivity result in higher pay.
Do we have too many people to have full employment? And what on earth do you do about that?
Every person who is responsible for bringing the materials together necessary to make stuff is just as responsible for making the stuff as the guy who screws in the screw or turns the dial on the machine.
Really?
So when the banker that finances the pencil factory is asked what he does he says he "makes pencils?"
And the CRE broker who leases the space to the pencil factory is asked what he does he says he "makes pencils?"
And the millwrights who install the machines to make the pencils when asked what they do say they "make pencils?"
The way some people talk you'd think the US was about to experience a imminent shortage of manufactured goods. Like all the factories of the world are running flat out producing all the goods that possibly can be produced and soon there won't be enough.
I'm not even sure that every raw material producer is running flat out but I'm sure that there is plenty of slack in world manufacturing capacity.
So when the banker that finances the pencil factory is asked what he does he says he "makes pencils?"
And the CRE broker who leases the space to the pencil factory is asked what he does he says he "makes pencils?"
And the millwrights who install the machines to make the pencils when asked what they do say they "make pencils?"
The answer to all your questions is no. The fact remains though that pencils are not made without those people, so they are as responsible for making pencils as the guy who runs the lathe that shapes the wood into a pencil-like shape. Whether they perceive that they make pencils or not is irrelevant.
Homer is about to be fired for the scam, but Karl takes the blame and is fired instead. Homer is invited to give a speech at the next meeting. Homer is nervous about giving the speech without Karl, but reasons that as long as he has hair, everything will be fine. When he gets home, he finds that Bart has spilled all of Homer's Dimoxinil in a misguided attempt to grow a beard. The next day, Homer, bald again, arrives at the meeting. His fears are alleviated when Karl appears with a pre-written speech for him. Karl then kisses Homer and pats him on the butt, explaining Karl's loyalty to Homer. Homer presents his speech, but the audience is unable to take him seriously without hair. Rather than punishing him, Burns, a fellow sufferer of male pattern baldness, sympathizes with Homer's situation. Homer is demoted back to his old position. In bed that night, Homer is devastated now that he is making less money, can not buy the kids things he promised them and that Marge will not be attracted to him anymore. Marge assures him that his old job always got them by and the kids would have to get over it. As for Homer still being attractive, Marge reassures him by singing "You Are So Beautiful To Me."
My point is that manufacturing in most industries has become so highly productive that there isn't a need for the same number of line workers that we had in the 70's and 80's.
Hell I'M NOT TECHNICALLY in mfg... I'm in support of mfg. In a 'service job'. If Burnside really is in distribution s/he isn't probably in mfg either... not technically. That would be 'wholesale sales'.
The point is that all that capital & resources used in mfg proper gets, bought/sold, engineered, distributed, warehoused, insured, financed, analyzed & securitized. For every guy in the control room or on the line running a robot... there are dozens of folks in suits backing them up... invisible. You jack up mfg activity - it doesn't take long & it spills over into a lot of these 'other activities'.
It blows my mind that otherwise SMART analytical economics types know so little about a major segment of the world economy. You guys need to do more homework... spend less time blogging.
I'm not even sure that every raw material producer is running flat out but I'm sure that there is plenty of slack in world manufacturing capacity.
At what price? What do 'they' get in return? More US paper?
The crisis is that we have a bunch of consumers (us) who are being carried by them and the 'them' are pretty sick of it & don't really want anymore paper.
So what ya gonna do? Either you (1) consume less (2) give'em something they want or (3) make the stuff yourself. We will see all three happen to some degree but only #2 & #3 provide a trajectory that keeps us close to our current standard of living. the option of just giving them paper & promises is increasingly off the table.
If UPS is shipping less packages then somebody else is certianly having inventory problems. I imagine inventory will become a major problem in the next 6 months. You heard it hear first.
There's a fabrication arm - plasma polishing or custom castings, but it's not the core business.
And more shirts than coveralls.
Anyway, I was coming to a point you've made nicely - it would be good to look more closely than we have at manufacturing. It's going to be important, so why make guesses.
Yeah, everyone may be tangentially engaged in the pencil-making business, but all these folks "adding value" are what sucks out the returns.
Buffett was quoted (in reference to stock and bond brokers), as referring to these layers of people as "helper-aiders". I wonder if he meant "helper-ators" as a contraction on operators.
Just too many fingers in the pie.
There are always long tails, they are always inefficient and they don't last long term. I suspect this is part of the reason why bubbles don't last.
The best example I can give is infrastructure investment right now. All this money and expected returns being thrust into roads, bridges, sewer, etc, will ultimately get sucked out by locals-derivatively.
Yeah, everyone may be tangentially engaged in the pencil-making business, but all these folks "adding value" are what sucks out the returns.
You mean the manufacturer's profit margins?
I see the razor thin margins in manufacturing as the result of Asian (and to some extend European) mercantilism.
Currency pegs, subsidies, and protective trade policies serve to create a glut of manufacturing capacity. And that's in an industry that is already prone to gluts. It doesn't cost much more to make factory that can build 2M widgets a day than one that can build 1M widgets.
With so much supply, all the pricing power in the last couple decades has shifted to those that control access to the consumer. It hasn't helped that the Federal Reserve has stepped in over the last 20 years to make sure that excess production capacity is ever rung out of the system.
In the US, the profits have moved from manufacturing, to wholesalers, to retail, to marketing giants like Google.
Google probably makes more money selling TVs than Sony does.
Dryfly and Burnside: Think about the pervasiveness of the real estate/buy/sell/homebuilder/broker/title/pmi/contractor/home depot/etc. industry and all its attendant retinue of suits/dinners at Morton's/car sales. Its a bigger part of the economy than the real manufactured stuff you guys deal in, and probably has a bigger financial blowback (busted helocs, bad cre loans etc).
I kind of agree with everything you say, and it think its what will raise us out by our bootstraps in the end, but for now, its a minor part of the picture
At what price? What do 'they' get in return? More US paper?
It's a Hobson's choice...
Either take our paper or shut down your excess production capacity and watch your economy and financial markets collapse (since your fiscal policies has made sure that everybody has leveraged that cash flow to the hilt).
Now, if there isn't any "slack" in the system and we are facing a shortage of manufactured goods in the world, let me know.
It seems to me y'all are typing past each other with respect to the time frame of your observation/analysis...there is going to be some severe pain in the retooling to domestic sourcing and actually producing something that the rest of the world wants - short to mid term - that capital reallocation is occurring now but it is a process of many years to complete (I won't bore you with the tale of the cycle time from lease sale to first production for deepwater oil & gas projects).
In support of Dryfly's comments RE the impact of mfrg, it has by far and away the largest multiplier (diffusive effect) of any business.
Service, tech, sales, distribution. The techie stuff that goes into most modern mfrg is incredible.
Over the long term, increasing your manufacturing base is by far and away the best avenue for creating real wealth.
People who think of manufacturing jobs as line workers completely miss the point. Most of these factories are very automated, but every nearly every industry group benefits. E.G. trucking, warehousing, wholesale & other distribution, packaging, accounting, finance, importing, commodities, chips, computers, robotics, capital machinery of all kinds, techs of all kinds - it's just an incredible chain of effects.
It isn't a quick stimulus. An effective drop in mortgage rates will pop through and start showing up the home building industry within six months as the market gets good and building, etc, accelerates. But it is overall a very large impact that is also stable. Once you build the base, it costs to move it.
Kicker, I agree w/ much of your analysis. There is a productive capacity glut save for mineral extraction and ag production. In these sectors, marginal costs are expanding for each ton and barrel produced (nod to you, energyecon).
From what I've ben told if you put em in planters and chill em in a fridge for a couple of weeks you can trick em into 2 seasons. Otherwise it's one; sprout in January, harvest in May before the heat gets to be too much.
Thank god I'm gonna live in a flood irrigation district and install cisterns to feed my drip irrigation. The neighborhood is considered flood plain and if I expand the footprint I have to account for this. Multiple cisterns, grasscrete, you name it.
That was quick CR!
Yes the recession is going full speed ahead...
They issued an 8k for this? No details yet.
OT,
But is so familiar about this number...hmmmm can't quite place it
Water Pipelines Across the US Are Breaking; Repair Costs Put at Nearly $300 Billion
crispy&cole, I haven't seen an SEC filing yet.
March sounds like a terrible month across the board.
Best to all
Recession? No.
Expansionary downclimb? Yes!
Yahoo finance shows an 8k filed - but they have no details.
The fed will now take brown shorts as collateral...move along everything is contained.
Fetch me my brown trousers!
The fed will order 30 million empty packages to be moved across the country to boost UPS liquidity problems. Any loss will be billed to the treasury.
Wall Street positive spin-We think this and fed ex warning should help oil and gas inventories rise, effectively reducing gas prices and inflation substantially in the 2nd quarter! Buy! Buy!
(sarcasm)off
.. boost UPS liquidity.
Interesting that AMZN seems not to care at all...as if its biz is not directly related to ups/fedex EPS (fedex said something about growth two weeks ago)
I'm a big short fan of AMZN, so we'll see.
Perhaps Ben can ship dollars to each and every household via UPS?
Here is the SEC filing. Just the Press Release - nothing more.
Best to all.
"What is fairly clearly the case from the data, is that if adjustable rate mortgages weren't available, the purchases (of homes) still would've occurred," he [Greenspan] said.
Expired
April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials anticipated that the economy would shrink in the first half of the year, with some concerned about ``a prolonged and severe economic downturn.''
``Many participants thought some contraction in economic activity in the first half of 2008 now appeared likely,'' the Fed said in minutes of the March 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released in Washington today.
bunch of freaking doomers
they know nothing
wrightB4eva(tm)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
crispy&cole writes:
The fed will now take brown shorts as collateral...
Don't have any, will somewhat brown underpants do?
I still can't believe Greenspan said that.
Is it time for a forever tracking label?
Thanks CR!
CR, there's been updated housing market news in the last few days--pending and new home sales stats. Hope to get your and Tanta's take.
12 bil more for Citi....when will these people learn?
FT.com / Financials - Citi in $12bn loan sale to private equity
You say 'recession,' I say 'depression.'
Such will be apparent to all (except Sebastian and O-Joe) in the winter, when the economic data are plunging and there is no end in sight.
Markel, I mentioned the pending stats briefly this morning - I don't follow them too closely, but they show March / April sales will probably be weak - I'd guess in the 4.8 million (SAAR) range.
Best Wishes.
We're all wearing brown shorts now.
(except for me - I'm not wearing any!)
And still, analysts tell us, we will have record earnings for 2008.
Skepticism will make a comeback someday.
Pending home sales at all-time low
Realtors' group says its index of homes under contract to sell fell sharply in February.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: April 8, 2008: 11:00 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- An index of homes under contract for sale fell more than expected in February, reaching the lowest level since the index's 2001 debut, according to a report released Tuesday.
The National Association of Realtors' (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index fell to 84.6 in February, down 1.9% from a revised reading of 86.2 in January and down 21.4% versus the same period last year.
Realtors: Pending home sales at record low in February - Apr. 8, 2008
jg, man, I hope you are wrong. Clearly there are downside risks, but I still think a lingering recession (at least lingering effects from the recession) with unemployment reaching 6.5% - maybe 7% is the most likely scenario. I'd guess real GDP will decline around 1% or so this year - a depression would probably mean a 10% decline in GDP!
Best Wishes.
"We're all wearing brown shorts now."
After brown shorts comes brown shirts.
I'm in retail and up 22% YOY. Why? I sell homebrewing and winemaking supplies. Want in? Sorry, the worldwide shortage of hops is a huge barrier to entry. BTW, we've always considered ourselves a contrary indicator. Peace.
"You say 'recession,' I say 'depression.'
I say, "DANGER WILL ROBINSON!"
4822 | 04.08.08 - 6:07 pm
Brown shirts and Blackwater.
Maybe the USPS will warn next and then raise rates to $.51 per letter. Buy those Forever stamps while you can.
"I'm in retail and up 22% YOY."
That's not very impressive when last years sales were 10.
10 what?
Well, my UPS visits are up because I either shop locally or shop online and have stuff delivered, since I hate wasting gas driving all over. My neighbor has UPS pick up shipments for their small business from her van. They used to have a warehouse space, but closed it.
Maybe UPS just needs to start appealing to people to shop online, and hurry along the CRE decline...
"I'd guess real GDP will decline around 1% or so this year"
A decline of 1% or a decline to 1%?
I say 2008 GDP growth at -.3%
CR, I, too, hope that I am wrong.
Unfortunately, the last time that we had this household + corporate/municipality debt to GDP ratio was in '29.
Actually, today, we are twice that '29 ratio.
Only a massive increase in productivity and savings can save us.
I see no impetus for that.
I need a drink of that brown water, now.
There used to be a healthy fear of $100 oil, and with good reason.
jg, make yer own.
time to short ebay
That Citi deal is great. The private equity folks break the bank, then get paid to put it back together:
"Although details of the deal were still being worked out, people familiar with the matter said Apollo Management, the Blackstone Group and TPG would buy the loan portfolio at a discount that could come in at about 90 cents on the dollar.
The Citi portfolio includes loans used to finance acquisitions by Apollo, Blackstone and TPG . . ."
safe_as_apartments writes:
Recession? No.
Expansionary downclimb? Yes!
I'm not a climber, but I believe the next sequence is rappelling
Always want to get hops to grow for shade/aroma in AZ(and sell to the local microbrewery) but the hopsellers don't move the rhizomes til marh and I need to plant them in Dec/jan to get the 2 growing seasons.
Saw the post on C selling more assets.
I could not believe this in the article:
"Kohlberg Kravis Roberts also signalled its determination to wade more aggressively into the market"
These folks still in default for a wack of debt, no?
most hop crops are single season perennials. Does the AZ climate allow for 2 crops per season?
Hahaha I'm mostly a lurker but did anyone just see our boy Cramer?
...and I quote:
"addicts are just less economically sensitive when they need a fix."
Marketwatch ticker just now
MTG] S&P downgrades MGIC, Old Republic, PMI & Radia
UPS is exposed to a double whammy....high oil prices and a recession. They will have to lower their earnings guidance again shortly.
OT but I'm amazed at the opinions of analysts that suggest manufacturing won't significantly contract and will be spurred by a weak dollar. IMO manufacturing has been - for too long - outsourced that in the US, one cannot use it, as a measure for any meaningful/analytical prognosis.
S&P action
S&P cuts ratings of four mortgage insurers on housing slump - MarketWatch
cd - reuters link:
TEXT-S&P release on four U.S. mortgage insurers
| Reuters
April 8 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its
counterparty credit rating on MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (MGIC Investment)
to 'BBB' from 'A-' and its counterparty credit and financial strength ratings
on the mortgage insurance subsidiaries (MGIC) to 'A' from 'AA-'. The ratings
were removed from CreditWatch
Old Republic International Corp. (ORI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (ORI) to 'A' from 'A+' and its
counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on ORI's core subsidiaries
to 'AA-' from 'AA'
PMI Group Inc. (PMI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (PMI Group) to 'BBB+' from 'A' and its counterparty
credit and financial strength ratings on PMI Group's mortgage insurance
subsidiaries in the U.S. (PMI) and Europe (PMI Europe) to 'A+' from 'AA
PMI fights back
(funny look at the huge trades late in the day)
SAN FRANCISCO (Thomson Financial) - PMI Group Inc. said late Tuesday its claims paying resources are unaffected by Standard & Poor's downgrade of the company's ratings.
Earlier Tuesday, S&P lowered its counterparty credit rating on PMI Group Inc. to 'BBB+' from 'A' and its counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on PMI Group's mortgage insurance subsidiaries in the U.S. and Europe to 'A+' from 'AA'.
PMI Group: claims paying resources unaffected by S&P downgrade - Forbes.com
"Time to short eBay"... seriously, are you kidding? It hasn't been around that long... but if you take them at their word, "America's Garage Sale' or whatever they say... eBay's gonna be PLENTY busy selling used plasma tvs, BMWs, photo gear... all the HELOC-aquired toys.
And hops? I am proud to say, that I watch the crop carefully... every other day on my way to Portland via Hwy 99, I drive through hundreds of acres of the climbing vines. Impressive. Tasty, too.
Brew on, folks.
"PMI Group Inc. said late Tuesday its claims paying resources are unaffected by Standard & Poor's downgrade of the company's ratings."
The article later goes on to state that PMI called S&P "little bitches" and offered to fight them on the street corner. Furthermore, PMI said that there was no mortgage crisis nor was there an overbuilding of homes. Finally, PMI declared that Santa Claus is dead while they beat four puppies with a stick.
So will the Fed pony up 150B?
The latest signs come from Standard & Poor's, which on Tuesday reported that technical default notices have been reported for about $159 billion of subprime mortgage bonds.
The swelling of those defaults means liquidations may be on the rise as investors known as "super senior" holders of the securities increasingly force sales of the bonds to squeeze out junior investors, who are farther back in line to claim those assets.
Moreover, the sales are coming at the worst time, when doubts about the true value of the securities remain. Selling in a thin market could depress prices and choke off financing for corporations, potentially extending a credit crisis that has gripped global markets since last year.
"Investors may be trying to liquidate more than $150 billion of securities when there are no or few buyers," said Brian Yelvington, an analyst at CreditSights, a New York-based research firm. "Gravedancers won't enter the market knowing there are forced sales about to hit the pipeline."
D'OH! I stare at this site all day, don't know why I didn't see the post on pending sales. Retinal fatigue, perhaps.
Um, hey Seb you want to maybe start lightening up on equities:
TEXT-S&P release on four U.S. mortgage insurers
| Reuters
Relevant quote:
"Our most recent macroeconomic forecast shows unemployment reaching 5.8% in
2009, and there is considerable uncertainty in the job markets. The
deterioration in the housing markets has also been worse than our expectations.
Now, we believe median home prices will decline 20% from the peak in 2006. By
contrast, the forecasts we used in November 2007 assumed a decline of 11%.
As a result of the deterioration in the housing and job markets, Standard &
Poor's believes mortgage insurers' operating results for 2008 and 2009 will
compare unfavorably with our previous expectations. Our current forecasts
predict that most companies will not generate an underwriting profit until
2010, but individual results will vary."
Wheew, ain't that just a bucket of roses.
Someday this war's gonna end...
And even more hits in this near the bottom:
". In
the short term, replacing the capacity provided by those mortgage insurers that
Standard & Poor's rates below 'AA-' would be extremely difficult. Standard &
Poor's estimates that firms now rated below 'AA-' accounted for 58% of the
industry's flow market share in 2007. The other mortgage insurers do not have
the capital to absorb all of this volume. Standard & Poor's would likely
downgrade any mortgage insurer that loses its eligibility to insure mortgages
sold to the GSEs.
In addition to the rating actions on mortgage insurers, Standard & Poor's
lowered its counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on PMI Guaranty
Co. to 'A+' from 'AA', removed them from CreditWatch negative, and assigned a
negative outlook. Standard & Poor's also placed its 'AA' counterparty credit,
financial strength, and financial strength ratings on Radian Asset Assurance
Inc. on CreditWatch negative."
Weeeeellll, that about kills the non GSE mortgage paper market.
Buckle up and get ready folks, here comes the next big air pocket for equities!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Wheew, ain't that just a bucket of roses.
Someday this war's gonna end...
AllenM
Well, I'd better cover some positions - the market is zoom up tomorrow! 3% maybe 4% gains?
OT but I'm amazed at the opinions of analysts that suggest manufacturing won't significantly contract and will be spurred by a weak dollar. IMO manufacturing has been - for too long - outsourced that in the US, one cannot use it, as a measure for any meaningful/analytical prognosis.
I have to agree with the analysts that a lot of industries aren't going to contract. Many industries are now completely acylical and highly resistant to economic downturns. Consider the telegraph industry, residential and commercial coal gas distribution, sales and manufacturing of typewriters, as well as service providers such as milkmen. They should all see very little decline in business activity or income even during a severe recession...
Much like manufacturing in the US today.
$2B cash, most hoarded in '07. Weep not for Big Brown
UPS: Balance Sheet for UNITED PARCEL SVC - Yahoo! Finance
ac - dont forget cobblers
ac,
You said it.
And candlemakers.
And wainwrights. Never know when you're going to need a good wain.
"What is fairly clearly the case from the data, is that if adjustable rate mortgages weren't available, the purchases (of homes) still would've occurred," he [Greenspan] said.
What is fairly clearly the case is that you shouldn't trust people who use more than one adverb per sentence.
Especially the quilting industry...keep's you warm when the candle burns out.
You say 'recession,' I say 'depression.'
Let's call the whole thing off!
And Pony Express riders.
I'm long salt. It makes everything taste better. Even leather.
Not quite cliff diving (see graph at the bottom), but rather a pronounced 'rappel':
News Release | National Restaurant Association
I truly feel terrible for the small business owners of the U.S. and world. They have no time to monitor money supply and lending standards. They relied upon the Federal Reserve for prudent stewardship.
F*** the Fed.
If you guys imagine purchasing agents in the US aren't moving towards domestic sourcing, then you're mistaken.
From the perspective of an industrial supply/industrial controls warehousing and distribution operation, I can tell you that pricing and on-time delivery considerations are driving our firm in the only practical direction: inventories, already significantly sourced here in the US, reflect a sharply rising domestically-manufactured component.
Dryfly does this far better than I ever will - I've pursued a life at one remove from the family business and am not in the thick of it. But I keep an eye on it, and I'm puzzled by those who imagine this country "doesn't make anything".
Perhaps some of you aren't involved in, or are unfamiliar with manufacturing in the US? And perhaps that colors your impressions?
The basic "your ratings suck" statement from the newly downgraded firms is priceless. All the private equity guys buying back into firms like WM must be a form of dollar cost averaging for all the bad paper they already hold.
Greenspan: Could use public funds to settle housing woes
| Reuters
Greenspan: Could use public funds to settle housing woes
Tue Apr 8, 2008 5:05pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday the Bush administration should look back to the 1980s savings and loan crisis for lessons on settling the housing crisis by committing taxpayers' money to the project.
"I think if you're going to deal with a situation like this it's an issue for appropriated funds of the Treasury to set up something like the Resolution Trust Corporation, which as you remember was very successful in resolving the S&L crisis," Greenspan said on CNBC television.
The RTC was set up to liquidate assets of troubled savings and loan associations that had been declared insolvent by the Office of Thrift Supervision. It operated between 1989 and 1995 and closed or helped resolved hundreds of thrifts, many of which had gotten into trouble through sloppy lending practices
CR,
IMO, this whole debate on recession severity is based on jobs.
Tell me when jobs will turn positive and continue into a positive trend. Then tell me what kind of jobs they will be. I see flat to negative job growth continuing for a long time.
Until somebody provides an answer on how jobs will be created, how can you say anything but deep recession or depression?
Greenspan: Could use public funds to settle housing woes
Somebody tar, feather, and gag Mr. Magoo, please, and set him in a corner to moulder.
p.s. (/rant)
This is all priced in.
Perhaps some of you aren't involved in, or are unfamiliar with manufacturing in the US? And perhaps that colors your impressions?
Problem is that manufacturing in the US is so darn productive. It doesn't take a lot of people on the line to keep the US stocked with measuring cups.
I remember back-in-the-day when Walmart still used to pretend that it cared where it bought its stuff. They had a big sign that touted the six jobs that Walmart supported by buying US measuring cups. I remember looking at that and thinking, six people to put cups on every shelf in every Walmart in America.
Most people in the US don't know anybody who really makes stuff. There aren't a lot of them. They don't even know somebody who knows somebody who makes stuff.
Of course, they know a lot of people that are indirectly involved in making stuff. People who market stuff, sell stuff, design stuff, transport stuff, maintain and account for stuff.
But, it's hard to wrap your head around the fact that those people are much, much greater in number than the people who actually make the stuff.
GAO spending audit-Govt credit cards.
Hey where's my server?
snip of content
The review of card spending at more than a dozen departments from 2005 to 2006 found that nearly 41 percent of roughly $14 billion in credit-card purchases, whether legitimate or questionable, did not follow procedure either because they were not properly authorized or they had not been signed for by an independent third party as called for in federal rules to deter fraud.
For purchases over $2,500, nearly half or 48 percent were unauthorized or improperly received.
Out of a sample of purchases totaling $2.7 million, the government could not account for hundreds of laptop computers, iPods and digital cameras worth more than $1.8 million. In one case, the U.S. Army could not say what happened to computer items making up 16 server configurations, each of which cost nearly $100,000
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
C recovered most of today's slide AH on the sale. I wonder if recessionary earnings reports will even dent the Bulls' enthusiasm to squeeze the shorts...
Kicker, I always like your perspective - well, usually.
But I'm not describing the makers of tea towels here. We handle components for refineries, mining, chemical processing, power distribution and production, jet engine manufacturing, pharmaceutical lab processing, bridge and highway construction, and for many industrial processes which require automated control systems.
And that's just one company. And it's not measuring cups.
But, it's hard to wrap your head around the fact that those people are much, much greater in number than the people who actually make the stuff.
I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. Every person who is responsible for bringing the materials together necessary to make stuff is just as responsible for making the stuff as the guy who screws in the screw or turns the dial on the machine. Without capital, land, and natural resources, stuff doesn't get made.
There's a great essay about this written by Leonard Read called "I, Pencil" which documents the miracle of the creation of an object we take for granted. It takes thousands of people working together to create something as pedestrian as a pencil. No one guy "makes" it.
TCA:
Long salt.
Wingtips: a shoe in '07, your lunch in '08!
But I'm not describing the makers of tea towels here.
Sorry, I didn't mean to give that impression.
I used measuring cups and Walmart because most people can relate to the numbers.
My point is that manufacturing in most industries has become so highly productive that there isn't a need for the same number of line workers that we had in the 70's and 80's.
We look at China and blame them for "stealing" our manufacturing jobs but don't forget that between '95 and '02 China lost 15 million manufacturing jobs to productivity gains.
China Losing More Manufacturing Jobs Than U.S. But Adding Service Jobs at a Rapid Pace
It is the same angst that the US had when farm productivity shot through the roof and we no longer were a nation of farmers.
time to short ebay
on UPS ... What isn't clear here is how much of UPS revenue decline is due to the general economy and how much is due to increased competition.
For the small and very small shipper, USPS is giving UPS a major run for their money. USPS Click N Ship combined with Carrier Pickup easily duplicates (and in some cases exceeds) UPS service (and you can ship 6 times a week). I'd call this issue a combination of the economy and competition.
About eBay ... recall what Warren Buffett said about businesses that have 'a moat' around them to fend off competitors. The only moat eBay has is its internal inertia. Lots of people are unhappy with eBay (fee structures, etc). New, less expensive competitors are popping up right and left (look at eCrater and Blujay, just to name a few). eBay may be the big dog on the block, but there are lots of others nipping at the edges.
Kicker, of course. Perfectly valid and true.
I'm always ambivalent in discussions of productivity v full employment as I'm no great fan of make-work, and prefer to see gains in productivity result in higher pay.
Do we have too many people to have full employment? And what on earth do you do about that?
My dear Greenspanato! I have come into possession of a fine pipe of Amontillado . . . You must come down to the cellar and see.
Every person who is responsible for bringing the materials together necessary to make stuff is just as responsible for making the stuff as the guy who screws in the screw or turns the dial on the machine.
Really?
So when the banker that finances the pencil factory is asked what he does he says he "makes pencils?"
And the CRE broker who leases the space to the pencil factory is asked what he does he says he "makes pencils?"
And the millwrights who install the machines to make the pencils when asked what they do say they "make pencils?"
The way some people talk you'd think the US was about to experience a imminent shortage of manufactured goods. Like all the factories of the world are running flat out producing all the goods that possibly can be produced and soon there won't be enough.
I'm not even sure that every raw material producer is running flat out but I'm sure that there is plenty of slack in world manufacturing capacity.
So when the banker that finances the pencil factory is asked what he does he says he "makes pencils?"
And the CRE broker who leases the space to the pencil factory is asked what he does he says he "makes pencils?"
And the millwrights who install the machines to make the pencils when asked what they do say they "make pencils?"
The answer to all your questions is no. The fact remains though that pencils are not made without those people, so they are as responsible for making pencils as the guy who runs the lathe that shapes the wood into a pencil-like shape. Whether they perceive that they make pencils or not is irrelevant.
Well, I can second Dryfly when he observes his bailiwick booming. From our perspective, business is very, very good and looking better all the time.
He proposes, I think, that America is retooling to meet its own needs, and our experience suggests this is so.
Won't happen overnight, but clearly it's in progress.
TCA,
I think Kicker's point is there is no guy at the lathe.
We need Karl @ The Fed and UPS!
http://thumbsnap.com/v/D9bvjT9N.gif
Homer is about to be fired for the scam, but Karl takes the blame and is fired instead. Homer is invited to give a speech at the next meeting. Homer is nervous about giving the speech without Karl, but reasons that as long as he has hair, everything will be fine. When he gets home, he finds that Bart has spilled all of Homer's Dimoxinil in a misguided attempt to grow a beard. The next day, Homer, bald again, arrives at the meeting. His fears are alleviated when Karl appears with a pre-written speech for him. Karl then kisses Homer and pats him on the butt, explaining Karl's loyalty to Homer. Homer presents his speech, but the audience is unable to take him seriously without hair. Rather than punishing him, Burns, a fellow sufferer of male pattern baldness, sympathizes with Homer's situation. Homer is demoted back to his old position. In bed that night, Homer is devastated now that he is making less money, can not buy the kids things he promised them and that Marge will not be attracted to him anymore. Marge assures him that his old job always got them by and the kids would have to get over it. As for Homer still being attractive, Marge reassures him by singing "You Are So Beautiful To Me."
My point is that manufacturing in most industries has become so highly productive that there isn't a need for the same number of line workers that we had in the 70's and 80's.
Hell I'M NOT TECHNICALLY in mfg... I'm in support of mfg. In a 'service job'. If Burnside really is in distribution s/he isn't probably in mfg either... not technically. That would be 'wholesale sales'.
The point is that all that capital & resources used in mfg proper gets, bought/sold, engineered, distributed, warehoused, insured, financed, analyzed & securitized. For every guy in the control room or on the line running a robot... there are dozens of folks in suits backing them up... invisible. You jack up mfg activity - it doesn't take long & it spills over into a lot of these 'other activities'.
It blows my mind that otherwise SMART analytical economics types know so little about a major segment of the world economy. You guys need to do more homework... spend less time blogging.
I'm not even sure that every raw material producer is running flat out but I'm sure that there is plenty of slack in world manufacturing capacity.
At what price? What do 'they' get in return? More US paper?
The crisis is that we have a bunch of consumers (us) who are being carried by them and the 'them' are pretty sick of it & don't really want anymore paper.
So what ya gonna do? Either you (1) consume less (2) give'em something they want or (3) make the stuff yourself. We will see all three happen to some degree but only #2 & #3 provide a trajectory that keeps us close to our current standard of living. the option of just giving them paper & promises is increasingly off the table.
If UPS is shipping less packages then somebody else is certianly having inventory problems. I imagine inventory will become a major problem in the next 6 months. You heard it hear first.
Dryfly,
Yup. We're primarily distribution.
There's a fabrication arm - plasma polishing or custom castings, but it's not the core business.
And more shirts than coveralls.
Anyway, I was coming to a point you've made nicely - it would be good to look more closely than we have at manufacturing. It's going to be important, so why make guesses.
All this talk about pencils reminds me that I'll soon be selling them on the corner (along with apples).
"No man is a lathe."
Yeah, everyone may be tangentially engaged in the pencil-making business, but all these folks "adding value" are what sucks out the returns.
Buffett was quoted (in reference to stock and bond brokers), as referring to these layers of people as "helper-aiders". I wonder if he meant "helper-ators" as a contraction on operators.
Just too many fingers in the pie.
There are always long tails, they are always inefficient and they don't last long term. I suspect this is part of the reason why bubbles don't last.
The best example I can give is infrastructure investment right now. All this money and expected returns being thrust into roads, bridges, sewer, etc, will ultimately get sucked out by locals-derivatively.
On the contrary, Mack, we couldn't serve industry without every one of the people we have.
Don't worry. When fossil fuels get scarce more people can again be employed in manufacturing and farming.
Yeah, everyone may be tangentially engaged in the pencil-making business, but all these folks "adding value" are what sucks out the returns.
You mean the manufacturer's profit margins?
I see the razor thin margins in manufacturing as the result of Asian (and to some extend European) mercantilism.
Currency pegs, subsidies, and protective trade policies serve to create a glut of manufacturing capacity. And that's in an industry that is already prone to gluts. It doesn't cost much more to make factory that can build 2M widgets a day than one that can build 1M widgets.
With so much supply, all the pricing power in the last couple decades has shifted to those that control access to the consumer. It hasn't helped that the Federal Reserve has stepped in over the last 20 years to make sure that excess production capacity is ever rung out of the system.
In the US, the profits have moved from manufacturing, to wholesalers, to retail, to marketing giants like Google.
Google probably makes more money selling TVs than Sony does.
Dryfly and Burnside: Think about the pervasiveness of the real estate/buy/sell/homebuilder/broker/title/pmi/contractor/home depot/etc. industry and all its attendant retinue of suits/dinners at Morton's/car sales. Its a bigger part of the economy than the real manufactured stuff you guys deal in, and probably has a bigger financial blowback (busted helocs, bad cre loans etc).
I kind of agree with everything you say, and it think its what will raise us out by our bootstraps in the end, but for now, its a minor part of the picture
At what price? What do 'they' get in return? More US paper?
It's a Hobson's choice...
Either take our paper or shut down your excess production capacity and watch your economy and financial markets collapse (since your fiscal policies has made sure that everybody has leveraged that cash flow to the hilt).
Now, if there isn't any "slack" in the system and we are facing a shortage of manufactured goods in the world, let me know.
It seems to me y'all are typing past each other with respect to the time frame of your observation/analysis...there is going to be some severe pain in the retooling to domestic sourcing and actually producing something that the rest of the world wants - short to mid term - that capital reallocation is occurring now but it is a process of many years to complete (I won't bore you with the tale of the cycle time from lease sale to first production for deepwater oil & gas projects).
In support of Dryfly's comments RE the impact of mfrg, it has by far and away the largest multiplier (diffusive effect) of any business.
Service, tech, sales, distribution. The techie stuff that goes into most modern mfrg is incredible.
Over the long term, increasing your manufacturing base is by far and away the best avenue for creating real wealth.
People who think of manufacturing jobs as line workers completely miss the point. Most of these factories are very automated, but every nearly every industry group benefits. E.G. trucking, warehousing, wholesale & other distribution, packaging, accounting, finance, importing, commodities, chips, computers, robotics, capital machinery of all kinds, techs of all kinds - it's just an incredible chain of effects.
It isn't a quick stimulus. An effective drop in mortgage rates will pop through and start showing up the home building industry within six months as the market gets good and building, etc, accelerates. But it is overall a very large impact that is also stable. Once you build the base, it costs to move it.
The fed will now take brown shorts as collateral...move along everything is contained.
crispy&cole | Homepage | 04.08.08 - 5:36 pm | #
To match the brown underwear Ben had a month ago
...was at UPS this morning, sending another box off to the East Coast.
"That'll be $79" she said, looking me right in the eye.
I stared at her a few second, said, "It was $14 dollars for the same box yesterday."
She didn't even blink, or look at the computer screen. "OK" she said.
Sign in the bar reads: GENTLEMEN, WATCH YOUR COAT AND HAT
JaiL
Kicker, I agree w/ much of your analysis. There is a productive capacity glut save for mineral extraction and ag production. In these sectors, marginal costs are expanding for each ton and barrel produced (nod to you, energyecon).
Matty,
From what I've ben told if you put em in planters and chill em in a fridge for a couple of weeks you can trick em into 2 seasons. Otherwise it's one; sprout in January, harvest in May before the heat gets to be too much.
Thank god I'm gonna live in a flood irrigation district and install cisterns to feed my drip irrigation. The neighborhood is considered flood plain and if I expand the footprint I have to account for this. Multiple cisterns, grasscrete, you name it.