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thanks. that was awesumly insightful.
"awesome speech your holiness"
GWB yesterday......
Dude........
Ciao
MS
CR: Again I learn something new that isn't being reported by any of the outlet.
Thank you.
Very nice analytical wor, sir. You have convinced me!
Now run the numbers with GNP and you should see a whole different scenario. We are producing more overseas than in the US. Most of our imports are from our overseas production.
Since this recession seems to be following a pattern, what usually happens to revers the trend and pull us out of the recession? What indicators can we look for (albeit far down the road)?
Just for grins and in a slightly off-topic way, is there a correlation between recessions of varying severity and the end of two-term Presidential tenures? It always seems like we see downturns around this time... it's certainly not a perfect correlation, but likely a statistically-significant one.
I'd fiddle with it myself, but I just don't have the data lying around-- and I know other people way more wonkish than me do!
Greg, usually a key engine for recovery is housing. That is why this recession will probably linger - housing isn't going to recovery in any meaningful way soon.
I posted on this a couple of months ago: Housing as an Engine of Recovery
Best Wishes.
The only thing left to speculate in is commodities. Speculation is non-productive so there is an upper bound to the amount of speculation before bad side effects begin to kick in. Only so much money-for-nothing you can allow before it starts to tear the system apart. Either the banks are allowed to fail and and speculators are slaughtered or else the food riots will continue. What Bernanke is overlooking is that the discontinuation of the gold standard only worked AFTER the collapse. If he tries to prevent a collapse, I think the food riots will start moving inward from the outward reaches of the emerging economies to the more "developed" economies. On the ground, inflation and biofuel is wreaking havoc on the food supply. I'm hearing the word inflation from people inhabiting the middle of nowhere in the minds of policymakers. Inflation expectations are completely unanchored. Conjure clock may have stopped with the bailouts, but the doomsday clock is still ticking forward. While I don't think it is going to be as bad as tj & the bear, I do think most people in the comments don't responsibly appreciate the depressing reality quickly approaching. Good luck to everybody.
food riots - Google News
United Technologies Corp. (UTX:US) had the third-biggest loss in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, sliding 2.2 percent to $71. The maker of Pratt & Whitney jet-engines and Carrier air conditioners said there were some ``early signs of moderating'' commercial-construction growth in the U.S. and some European countries
CR,
Have you seen those two huge office towers being constructed off of the 805 near Sorrento Valley?? What the hell are they thinking??
Jwm in SD
I used to live in SD, moved to san clemente, drove past those new towers last week, wondered how soon they might be occupied...
One thing that eventually helps coming out of recession is low cost office space, but pretty tough for those builders/banks in the mean time...
Unfortunately, these charts are simply presenting more and more proof of how the hysteria over recession has taken hold.
Let's look at the 3rd chart, "Investment in Non-Residential Structures", etc.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SAekyAdPMOI/AAAAAAAAB14/uG7e19Whc6s/s1600-h/InvestmentMattersSurvey.jpg
Look at the blue line, starting from the left-hand side.
In the recovery following the recession of '90-'91, investment in non-residential structures went from negative to positive growth. Even though that growth began to go "sideways" starting about 1995, it remained positive all the way until 1999, when recession was still 2 years away.
So based on what happened between the previous two recessions, we aren't even to the "1995" level yet, since growth in investment in non-residential structures hasn't even started to slow yet.
Sebastia
awesome recessio
But... but... we NEED more shopping malls! On the way to work, I saw a tree - that is bad! It must be cut down and replaced with a Wal-mart immediately! How else will Amerikans get their daily drug-like dosage of mindless consumption? Oh, the humanity!