That graph of inflation-adjusted home improvement spending is one of the most illuminating housing-related things I've seen in a while. Does anyone know what proportion of remodeling was financed with home equity loans and mortgages with "a little extra" added to the loan amount? Could be a hard number to get at, I guess, but I'm guessing most of that "investment" was done with borrowed money.
The legislation would ``ensure America's families can continue to access the federal college loans they are eligible for regardless of what is happening in the credit markets,'' said Democratic Representative George Miller of California, chairman of the House education panel. The legislation approved today also would increase the amount students could borrow
i'd like to borrow 50 million to learn how to make 3 billion in one year like Paulson.
I have a friend who does home remodeling; he still has business, but mainly top-end. In other words, from people who don't have to borrow the money.
He's currently doing a major backyard deck/path/patio/pond project that includes a $5K wood-fired pizza oven imported from Italy. Client is a dotcommer who got out with his money intact.
Well, I think people used to do smaller projects one at a time. Lately it's been whole-house gutting and flipping.
We tend to do 1-2 smaller projects every year. We've never spent over 40K in a year on anything. Our neighbor in his 30s gutted his whole house, remodeled everything and is now remodeling the entire yard. Of course he's put 125K into a 500K house (now about 450-475, perhaps, and going down), but that's his choice and his problem....
My next door neighbor just had some nice stonework done down to the pool. He also has the house for sale for $1,000,000.00 more than the zillow estimate. Probably because the neighbor across the street just had the bushes chopped down and has his on the market for $4,000,000.000 than the zillow estimate. Yes, millions. Nothing like a little spit polish to help hit the number.
two neighbors: one had the house on the market for a year at 800k, no bites the whole time so they took it off. The other recently kicked out the renters and are trying to sell for 725k. No bites.
It amazes me that people are still remodeling here in KC! We went to a friends house a couple of days ago to take out their microwave, it's white and it just won't go with the new granite countertops. The man was unable to, he'd been out of work for a couple of months due to a staph infection, but he didn't want to pay the extra amount for them to remove it when they brought the new appliances. Their new wood floors sure were pretty!
When my husband and I look at houses, he's forever commenting on how much we would have to spend if we bought such and such house... but between big junk pickup and garage sales, about all we would need (at the new Lowe's that just opened up across from Home Depot) is light bulbs!
"Yes, the Joint Center for Housing Studies forecast is in nominal terms, but it appears they believe this slump in home improvement will be milder than the downturns during the previous two housing busts (early '80s and early '90s)."
What information is convincing the JCHS to conclude that this "slump" will be milder than the 80s and 90s?
Talk about smoking the crack! And recovery in the 2nd half..of the century MAYBE! Okay, perhaps by 2015 the sales market picks up, but improvements have been the secondary fuel for this entire clusterschuck. Even you, CR, have excerpted articles about 5 yr old condos with stainless and marble kitches sitting empty in drives. Improvements will go back to a marginal bidness, with either Lowes or HD long gone in BK.
Idled home improvement contractors are not going to show up in the unemployment numbers. And idled home improvement contractors are going to push up foreclosure rates.
Goodbye subprime, we're talking unemployment now. This group won't benefit from unemployment comp extensions.
Instead of sponsoring a child overseas, or maybe in addition to, we might need to think sponsoring a home improvement contractor. We could have their pictures on the brochures, pick the contractor you want to sponsor.
MEW is the key. The key is broken in half and has been poured down the toilets with the cement. Without MEW, people will be doing a lot of small projects (painting, repairing roofs, ect...) by themselves. Home Depot will have to rent out 3/4 of their floor space to youth indoor hockey and soccer leagues.
Two entirely separate things. First, the HomeLowesDepotImproveCentres have mispositioned themselves. They barely carry DIY stuff anymore. What they carry is too expensive. Too much FAR dedicted to design centres and such.
Second, we need a cattle prod for anyone who can say conditions are unprecedented AND predicts a bottom. The two are mutually exclusive.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Capital One Financial Corp, (COF.N: Quote, Profile, Research) a credit card and banking company, said on Thursday that first quarter earnings fell, as it set aside three times as much money for credit losses as the same quarter last year.
The McLean, Virginia company said quarterly net income fell to $548.5 million, or $1.47 a share, from $675.0 million, or $1.62 a share a year earlier.
Capital One said the outlook for credit performance weakened due to the slowing U.S. economy, but that its business is generating strong capital. The company boosted its quarterly dividend more than twelve-fold, as part of a plan to pay out more of its earnings to investors.
Total revenue was $3.87 billion, up from $3.38 billion in the same quarter last year
Google the "Harvard" center and find out who its contributors are. This is the same "Harvard" center that predicted a mild, "soft landing" of sideways house prices in 2006.
Hmmmm...does that include the 6 gallons of interior paint I bought last Saturday from a local non-chain sotre, and the new liner for my water garden pond that I just bought (Ebay of course- I never pay full retail if I can help it)? On the other hand, I'm the one up on the laddr with the paintbrush and spackle, and I'm the one who will be installing the new liner.
I agree with the 15-20% guestimate. The only caveat is that consumer balance sheets, while still weak in the early nineties, are even worse off this time around. This could mean even more downside now that the ATM is closed. But then again, it is different this time.
Well, I am doing some smaller remodeling myself. Old house. I figure we can't sell it in this market, but we could upgrade it to enjoy it ourselves. If you put in the elbow grease, it is a lot less expensive.
dd, thank you for digging up the madam's phone book of regular johns for the Harvard Ho House, as well as their laughable predictions. Saved me the trouble.
The more frequently you're proven wrong, the more frequently your predictions are quoted.
Instead of sponsoring a child overseas, or maybe in addition to, we might need to think sponsoring a home improvement contractor. We could have their pictures on the brochures, pick the contractor you want to sponsor.
Outsider | 04.17.08 - 6:30 pm | #
I want to see Sally Stuthers wandering through a Lowe's, mushing about the poor guys who have no life since the credit crunch.
Maudlin music plays and you see two guys playing pinochle to pass the time.
STH...Save the Homebuilder
And I damned sure want a thank you note.
Wait...isn't that they're calling the new congress bill?
I look at that chart and I wonder what the sudden change was in the early 70s when the trend change from flat to rising. But I look at that bump and the current one and I'll predict that stainless steel will be the "avacado green" of the 2020s. And granite countertops the "double wall oven."
"Don't inflate out of financial mess: Fed's Fisher "
Trying to solve the financial industry's structural problems with more interest rate cuts would only worsen the situation by raising inflation, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Thursday
"The answer ... is not to compound the bad by repeating the oft-prescribed remedy of inflating our way out of our predicament with a wing-and-a-prayer promise that it can always be reined in later," Fisher said.
"To wrap ourselves in the toxic, defensive mantle of protectionism ... is akin to embracing inflation as a remedy to the credit market correction," he said.
A question for the board;
Over at Minyanville, there is a thought line that has said dollar devaluation and asset inflation goes hand in hand (ie. a 30% decline in the dollar and a 15% rise in the DOW = bull market?). Tonight on his show Larry Kudlow, Mr. cutratesnow himself, has called for the FED to RAISE rates 25-50bps at the next meeting to strengthen the dollar. My question is:
1.) Do you believe that the falling dollar allowed stocks to go up (I do)
2.) If rates are raised, the stock market tanks (I am not sure)
Kohn is even more sanguine:
"Banks must continue to focus on improving their management of counterparty risks. During the financial market disruptions surrounding the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management almost 10 years ago, counterparty risk was a central concern. Subsequently, a private-sector group called the Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group developed a set of best practices for counterparty risk that greatly helped to set the tone for the needed improvements. These efforts do not appear to have been wasted, as attested to by the lack of serious losses from defaults of hedge fund counterparties in the recent turmoil. However, banks do not appear to have followed those best practices for their counterparty relationships with monoline financial guarantors, where counterparty risk has crystallized into large losses."
Um, more coming down the pike?
Another nugget:
"All banks--large and small--need to consider whether they need greater capital cushions. The largest banks should consider whether their changing business model means that they need to hold more capital against some of the newer risks I discussed earlier. It is especially concerning that so many of these newer risks have arisen at the same time. Smaller banks must make sure their capital is sufficient to protect against the risk associated with the greater concentrations that have seemed to accompany the increased competition from securities markets."
Translation: You idiots don't have enough capital to survive crisis. So stop making stupid boneheaded loans to wall street. Now, what does this mean?
Krugman is right. More sewage is coming up from the floorboards, and the pumps are working full blast.
If they go up in a couple of weeks, the markets will certainly tank.
If the increase comes after a long period of cuts or inaction during which the dollar slide against major currencies attains supersonic speeds, then the markets might cheer the increase. In between these two scenarios, anything can happen.
JJL, I'm not so sure about the dollar theory. Regarding interest rates, that's another story. From a fundamental point of view, the lower risk-free rate would tend to push equities higher.
If rates are raised, the stock market tanks (I am not sure)
This is probably is more dunce cap by me than thinking cap, but raising rates at this point will increase savings. This will decrease borrowing by the US consumer. Other countries have had a mercantilist approach to the US. If the US consuming is not consuming why support the dollar? If they pull their backing on the dollar interest rates on bonds will go up. The US consumer then will increase savings drawing money out of the stock market and into fixed instruments.
This kind of news is not bad for those of us who can "do it yourself". Most of us are going to be spending more years in our current house so why not do the things that make it more to our taste and add features we need? Prices of stuff at Home Depot and Lowes will drop and we can take advantage of that. Contractors may be hungry and happy to get work also.
Joy has the right idea.
I bought my old house in 71 and we lived in it till 96. I added a bedroom, skylights and remodeled the baths, utility and kitchen myself. Took a bit of time as it was all out of current income.
This house was a real fixer but we could afford it on one income. Had a large lot in an improving area.
Hope none of you have to sell in this crappy market.
this is my perspective as the owner of a residential design/build company:
hell yeah that figure is optimistic! we've seen a significant slow down in the expenditures of home owners on home improvements. hell, even myself, i've slowed down on the things i'll buy for the house.
sure we have a steady flow of clients doing their thing but nothing like before. before it was every tom dick and college graduate doing a 95% ltv mini perm based on the appraised as completed value.
it took my simple mind a long time to even understand why and how the banks would lend homeowners money to improve their house based on what the value might be. then i got it and worked the hell out of it.
nonetheless, what we see today are the senior associate types who bought a small house in a great location who dont/cant move but need more space because kid number 2 or 3 is on the way. they have cash and steady income so they can pay.
but the lil old lady that lived in her family house for 30 years aint getting an asset based loan for her renovations anymore.
take it from me, boots on the ground, feeling every second of this - shit is way slower than 4.8%!!!
A panel discussion at a college in upstate New York filled with economists (including a fellow of the AEI, no less) drawing parallels between now and the
Depression. Lots of anti-Fed talk, some pro-Volcker.
Worth a glance.
It occurs to me that some home remodeling might not get done because it won't add value to the selling price. The things that will still be done will be the more pragmatic additions, minus imported snob appeal touches.
Talk about smoking the crack!
I believe with a name like JOINT Center, the question is whether the spiff is cut with crack or angel dust.
I'm much too timid to predict company earnings, but with the way the Home Depot stores are treating their employees (cutting hours, forced relocation, general low morale), their shrinkage is going to go from large to enormous. Every time I hear a new story about how their employees have found a new way to move product out the back door (or the front for that matter) I'm amazed at the criminal ingenuity. Locally they just started verifying large items (water heaters, stoves) moving out of the door, makes me think that they lost a few.
I've made a few snide remarks (no, really!) about their computer inventory that never seem to match with the stock on hand.
I just realized my kitchen decor still reflects the taste of the person who sold it to us 8 years ago, the basement is still only partially finished...there are some minor holes/cracks in the walls. The faucets are oxidizing and starting to leak. The vanities were cheap in 1978. This kind of thing. We did extract equity to put up a deck and fence, but we are just glad to have significant paper equity at this point and don't plan to piss it away. We can budget $200 or so for each miniproject (paint, spackle, caulk, wallpaper, faucets, etc.) and trickle them out over the next couple of years while we save for the more expensive items that will be difficult to do ourselves.
Gee, Crispy, the Bakersfield paper threw the president of San Joaquin Bank some real hardball questions, didn't they?
Yeah, they forgot to ask: "What is your name? Bart Hill What is your quest? I seek the Holy Grail What is your favorite colour? Blue, no, pink! Aaaaarghhh"
I'm with you, Joy. I've just never understood how people can want to spend all their evenings refinishing floors or ripping out cabinets. I usually like a house when I buy it, run it into the ground over 5-10 years or so, then fix it up just in time to sell it. Works for me. But I wouldn't want to go to all that trouble in this market.
otal money market mutual fund assets fell by $52.03 billion to $3.484 trillion for the week, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.
Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds fell by $6.54 billion in the latest week to $1.263 trillion.
Assets of taxable money market funds in the retail category fell by $4.60 billion to $960.65 billion for the week ended Wednesday, the Washington-based mutual fund trade group said. Tax-exempt fund assets fell by $1.93 billion to $301.93 billion.
Assets of institutional money market funds fell by $45.49 billion to $2.222 trillion for the same period. Among institutional funds, taxable money market fund assets fell by $39.27 billion to $2.038 trillion; assets of tax-exempt funds fell by $6.22 billion to $183.57 billion.
The seven-day average yield on money market mutual funds fell in the week ended Tuesday to 2.13 percent from 2.21 percent the previous week, said Money Fund Report, a service of iMoneyNet Inc. in Westboro, Mass. The 30-day average yield fell to 2.20 percent from 2.33 percent, according to Money Fund Report.
Co-worker gave me a 10 minute lecture about "buy now before the price of house goes up again." He explained to me that the price of everything is going up, therefore houses will cost more in the future. I tried to explain that because things like food and gas are going up, people won't have money to spend on housing so much.
After he left some other co-workers came over and were talking... they both own houses and I got to hear about how one bought for $270k and it went up to like $800k, and the other bought in a not so great neighborhood... the older said... "it's going to start getting weird..." .
Investors are pointing fingers at the likes of UBS, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo and Piper Jaffray. Wells Fargo was sued this week by a California firm seeking to represent multiple clients.
In a prepared statement, Wells Fargo said, "The industry is dealing with difficult challenges caused by unprecedented events the past few months in the auction-rate market. ... We're doing what we can to support our customers who hold these securities."
Piper Jaffray declined to comment Thursday about what could prove to be a lawyers' holiday.
"We are in the first act of the dance of a thousand veils," said Terry Fruth, a veteran securities lawyer who is meeting with prospective clients and other lawyers. "One thing these auction-rate securities are not: a money-market sort of fund."
"The Wall Street houses and banks want to minimize more capital-eating write-offs. Some are lending to their customers and letting them use the auction-rate securities as collateral."
Not only are Auction rate securities nice for last second window dressing, but you can loan them out or rent them!
This is probably is more dunce cap by me than thinking cap, but raising rates at this point will increase savings.
Probably not - higher rates will increase unemployment even faster than it is already increasing & that - in aggregate - will drive savings even lower.
At least for awhile - until we move well into recovery.
What it will also do is drive consumption lower NOW... and drive domestic production of goods & services lower too.
Consumption is going lower no matter what - the only question is will it be because the dollar is worth less or is it because we have higher unemployment. One way or the other the imbalances rebalance.
hey dry. hope you're well. things here are crazy hectic. keeping on topic, our residential design/build shop is slow as hell but the same people have transitioned into commercial (where they came from in the first place) very easily which makes for a nice recession time transition.
lets see how they handle the move into institutional.
leasing and sales for us are all about dead but thats mostly due to lack of effort.
i've transitioned into more of a straight up acquisitions specialist with a little of the people management stuff on the side. no more project management here because i suck at it. but we're seeing the whole gamut of building project moving ahead albeit in smaller volumes.
55k commercial exurban stuff, 500 lot land development deals, 150k urban base building mixed use projects, little quirky infill stuff etc etc.
just had a great ground breaking that felt surreal.
all this on the anniversary of the King riots and the misery than ensued for FORTY years.
funny thing - as i was explaining my depression garden to my city friends (i have the good fortune of having land in the city upon which to have a garden) i told them that i might be growing corn soon enough full time on my acre.
LOL
hope you are doing well dryfly, i miss hearing more of your insights
hope you are doing well dryfly, i miss hearing more of your insights
dc1000 | 04.18.08 - 12:13 am | #
Hey dc - I'm trying to transition myself. Chasing aerospace hard again... haven't done that since the late 90s.
I don't have a lot of solid 'ag suppliers' anymore - else I'd be there too. Too many of my clients (the guys I sell for) are wrapped up in automotive - I think more than one will go POOF...
Aerospace is hot right now... really hot. Planes are old & the carriers need better fuel efficiency or they won't make it. They have to replace a good portion of the fleet even if passenger miles decline in this recession.
If that doesn't work I'm going to hibernate. Wake up when the recovery comes.
an organization called crestmont research has some interesting graphs and presentations that show clearly the rise and fall of the dow does not presage corresponding changes in the economy...gdp.
I posted that at the end of CR's article on the TED spread. That is what happens to mfg companies in tight credit markets - they require projects to pay back in less than a year or NO-GO. Its an innovation killer for sure.
I haven't seen hurdles the high on viable long running & profitable product lines since the 80s.
Seriously.
BTW - that part goes into a product HEAVILY used in commercial RE & top end res RE development... improved component for HVAC application. I can't say more since it isn't out on the market yet & I signed NDAs... but you will be using them in about a year or two.
an organization called crestmont research has some interesting graphs and presentations that show clearly the rise and fall of the dow does not presage corresponding changes in the economy...gdp.
mock turtle | 04.18.08 - 12:51 am | #
I've always thought that. That the dow is a good predictor of the future economy like your rear view mirror is a good predictor of road conditions ahead. I mean the road ahead probably is pretty much like the road you've just gone over so the rear view mirror 'predicts' just fine...
Until it doesn't any more and you are in the ditch. Same with the dow...
there's a great skit on saturday night live where the record producer tells the band their sound is dynamite...except for one thing...he's gotta have more cowbell.
the skits funny because th entire band is pretty talented except for the guy striking the cowbell, who has been a nuisance to the rest of the band, but when the producer asks for more, well the cowbell goes outta control...
like big ben and the interest rate cuts.
used to be a good youtube link for the skit but they took the audio down and substituted the WRONG tune. copyright issue guess
I am currently driving through a particularly hard hit area of Northern California about twice per week, in order to get a sense of the time to buy into it. There is a large number of forclosures in the neighborhood, which is why I noticed it. As I was driving through on a Sunday, however, I noticed piles of old furniture, washers, dryers, water heaters, toilets, and wood, lots of wood, being set out for the trash. This is in front of the houses that are not currently in foreclosure too. I surmise that there is a remodeling boom going on in the neighborhood in order to get these houses available for sale before they foreclose.
This neighborhood is a blue collar neighborhood, where I suspect that a lot of the people in the homes are, or more probably were, in the construction trades. This neighborhood soon might be 20% unoccupied.
"China's markets are as predictive of the China recovery as Las Vegas crap tables are of the US economy."
second that... but what it's saying about the Chinese punters' psyche, I think, is that there's fear about the gov'ts anti-inflation "macro measures" which get lots of coverage. Also dilution issues with certain stocks as well as the supply of new ones on stream.
Once worried about the fallout of an bubble in equities, now the authorities can worry about having "fixed it".
Daisy, I don't know which analyst survey you are looking at, but C lost $1.02 a share while according to MarketWatch "Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected the firm to report a loss of 95 cents a share", while Bloomberg still reports estimated EPS for Q1 at -0.92.
OK, Citi's results were only a little worse than expected, which is good. Now WS seems to be going by the sign of the second derivative of the loss curve!
I see tulips...
Hey, where's my recession bar on the graph? We need that bar - as we all know, The Powers That Be won't acknowledge this recession now or ever, so it's up to CR and Tanta.
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BTW, someone was impersonating me earlier Ipodius | 04.17.08 - 7:44 pm | was not me, as I was in the middle of teaching a class then. I think this blog *is" getting more disgusting. I hope you can find out who that was CR and remove those posts.
I usually like a house when I buy it, run it into the ground over 5-10 years or so, then fix it up just in time to sell it. Works for me. But I wouldn't want to go to all that trouble in this market.
I'm there but I don't hold out realistic hopes of selling it. So I decided to change the house that I have. I swear if I have to look at Mrs. S's choice of wallpaper and flooring anymore I will probably go postal. Plus the maintenance is needed because the house is old and the cracks are beginign to show--might as well replace the broken doors with snazzy new ones frex.
Home-improvement spending is unlikely to improve until 2009, and the second half of 2008 is shaping up to be weaker than the first, according to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. Blogger: Blog not found
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foist?
When the home ATM peters out, we have home copper mine.
Printing money is sort of like adding grease to the machinery to make it work better.
What kind of institution adds grease to machinery that is not there?
You get about one week's grace with grease until the gummed up bearings and seals go south.
Sorry, but they (Harvard) are a bunch of intellectual inbreeders.
That graph of inflation-adjusted home improvement spending is one of the most illuminating housing-related things I've seen in a while. Does anyone know what proportion of remodeling was financed with home equity loans and mortgages with "a little extra" added to the loan amount? Could be a hard number to get at, I guess, but I'm guessing most of that "investment" was done with borrowed money.
U.S. House Backs Bill to Avert Student Loan Crunch (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
The legislation would ``ensure America's families can continue to access the federal college loans they are eligible for regardless of what is happening in the credit markets,'' said Democratic Representative George Miller of California, chairman of the House education panel. The legislation approved today also would increase the amount students could borrow
i'd like to borrow 50 million to learn how to make 3 billion in one year like Paulson.
I have a friend who does home remodeling; he still has business, but mainly top-end. In other words, from people who don't have to borrow the money.
He's currently doing a major backyard deck/path/patio/pond project that includes a $5K wood-fired pizza oven imported from Italy. Client is a dotcommer who got out with his money intact.
Well, I think people used to do smaller projects one at a time. Lately it's been whole-house gutting and flipping.
We tend to do 1-2 smaller projects every year. We've never spent over 40K in a year on anything. Our neighbor in his 30s gutted his whole house, remodeled everything and is now remodeling the entire yard. Of course he's put 125K into a 500K house (now about 450-475, perhaps, and going down), but that's his choice and his problem....
Oh, and he bought it in 2005 for 560K. ;^)
My next door neighbor just had some nice stonework done down to the pool. He also has the house for sale for $1,000,000.00 more than the zillow estimate. Probably because the neighbor across the street just had the bushes chopped down and has his on the market for $4,000,000.000 than the zillow estimate. Yes, millions. Nothing like a little spit polish to help hit the number.
CR
The chart seems to be at 140 trillion... might the left side be in 000's, not millions?
two neighbors: one had the house on the market for a year at 800k, no bites the whole time so they took it off. The other recently kicked out the renters and are trying to sell for 725k. No bites.
It amazes me that people are still remodeling here in KC! We went to a friends house a couple of days ago to take out their microwave, it's white and it just won't go with the new granite countertops. The man was unable to, he'd been out of work for a couple of months due to a staph infection, but he didn't want to pay the extra amount for them to remove it when they brought the new appliances. Their new wood floors sure were pretty!
When my husband and I look at houses, he's forever commenting on how much we would have to spend if we bought such and such house... but between big junk pickup and garage sales, about all we would need (at the new Lowe's that just opened up across from Home Depot) is light bulbs!
"Yes, the Joint Center for Housing Studies forecast is in nominal terms, but it appears they believe this slump in home improvement will be milder than the downturns during the previous two housing busts (early '80s and early '90s)."
What information is convincing the JCHS to conclude that this "slump" will be milder than the 80s and 90s?
pq the information that is convincing the JCHS is called "blind hope"
I think the market for pergraniteel is going down more than 4.8%
There will be LOTS of home & property improvement in the future.
Barred windows, steel-framed doors, razor wire, just to name a few things.
Talk about smoking the crack! And recovery in the 2nd half..of the century MAYBE! Okay, perhaps by 2015 the sales market picks up, but improvements have been the secondary fuel for this entire clusterschuck. Even you, CR, have excerpted articles about 5 yr old condos with stainless and marble kitches sitting empty in drives. Improvements will go back to a marginal bidness, with either Lowes or HD long gone in BK.
Idled home improvement contractors are not going to show up in the unemployment numbers. And idled home improvement contractors are going to push up foreclosure rates.
Goodbye subprime, we're talking unemployment now. This group won't benefit from unemployment comp extensions.
Instead of sponsoring a child overseas, or maybe in addition to, we might need to think sponsoring a home improvement contractor. We could have their pictures on the brochures, pick the contractor you want to sponsor.
MEW is the key. The key is broken in half and has been poured down the toilets with the cement. Without MEW, people will be doing a lot of small projects (painting, repairing roofs, ect...) by themselves. Home Depot will have to rent out 3/4 of their floor space to youth indoor hockey and soccer leagues.
Maybe the morgue look of stainless and granite will go out of style really quick and the market will pick up. Just a thought.
And don't forget paintball events.
Somehow all their forecasts seem to be rather "favorable" to the construction industry, perhaps as a result of some funding ?
Two entirely separate things. First, the HomeLowesDepotImproveCentres have mispositioned themselves. They barely carry DIY stuff anymore. What they carry is too expensive. Too much FAR dedicted to design centres and such.
Second, we need a cattle prod for anyone who can say conditions are unprecedented AND predicts a bottom. The two are mutually exclusive.
Oh, and the parking lots will be rented out for go-cart races and bake sales.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Capital One Financial Corp, (COF.N: Quote, Profile, Research) a credit card and banking company, said on Thursday that first quarter earnings fell, as it set aside three times as much money for credit losses as the same quarter last year.
The McLean, Virginia company said quarterly net income fell to $548.5 million, or $1.47 a share, from $675.0 million, or $1.62 a share a year earlier.
Capital One said the outlook for credit performance weakened due to the slowing U.S. economy, but that its business is generating strong capital. The company boosted its quarterly dividend more than twelve-fold, as part of a plan to pay out more of its earnings to investors.
Total revenue was $3.87 billion, up from $3.38 billion in the same quarter last year
CR, consider the source:
Google the "Harvard" center and find out who its contributors are. This is the same "Harvard" center that predicted a mild, "soft landing" of sideways house prices in 2006.
From it's website at 404 Not Found :
Policy Advisory Board- Member Companies
84 Lumber Company, AGC Flat Glass North America, American Standard, Andersen Corporation, Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
Beazer Homes USA, Inc., BlueLinx Corporation
Boise Cascade, LLC, Boral Industries
The Bozzuto Group, Bradco Supply Corporation
Builders FirstSource, Building Materials Holding Corporation, Canfor Corporation, Centex Corporation, CertainTeed Corporation
Champion Enterprises, Countrywide Financial Corporation, Crosswinds Communities,
Fannie Mae, Fortune Brands Home and Hardware
Freddie Mac, GAF Materials Corporation
Georgia-Pacific Corporation, Gibraltar Industries
Hanley Wood, LLC, Hearthstone, The Home Depot, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc., Huttig Building Products, Inc., Jeld-Wen, Johns Manville Corporation, KB Home, Kimball Hill Homes
Kohler Co., Lafarge North America, Lennar Corporation, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Marvin Windows and Doors, Masco Corporation
Masonite International Corporation, McGraw-Hill Construction, MI Windows and Doors, Inc.
Moulding and Millwork, Inc., Move, Inc., National Gypsum Company, Oldcastle Building Products, Inc., Owens Corning, Pacific Coast Building Products, Pella Corporation, Ply Gem Industries, Inc., Pro-Build Holdings, Inc., Pulte Homes, Inc.
Realogy Corporation, Reed Business Information
S&B Industrial Minerals S.A., The Sherwin-Williams Company, Simpson Strong-Tie
Stock Building Supply, Temple-Inland, USG Corporation, Weyerhaeuser, Whirlpool Corporatio
"We could have their pictures on the brochures, pick the contractor you want to sponsor. :)"
there are a few contractors (like the roofer who wanted to charge me $800 for a simple job) I'd love to see pushing a shopping cart.
dd,
You failed to mention these other members: Satan, Oprah, and the Dixie Chicks.
This is good news right?
What information is convincing the JCHS to conclude that this "slump" will be milder than the 80s and 90s?
Congress is getting ready to pay the mortgage for anyone that decides to stop writing their checks.
With everyone getting their credit cards taken by daddy (HELOC being removed...) I bet it also falls off the cliff....
~
"Congress is getting ready to pay the mortgage for anyone that decides to stop writing their checks."
Second American Revolution: 15 April 2009
Hmmmm...does that include the 6 gallons of interior paint I bought last Saturday from a local non-chain sotre, and the new liner for my water garden pond that I just bought (Ebay of course- I never pay full retail if I can help it)? On the other hand, I'm the one up on the laddr with the paintbrush and spackle, and I'm the one who will be installing the new liner.
mp said: "Sorry, but they (Harvard) are a bunch of intellectual inbreeders."
Well, thank God we've got "better" people here.
I think this blog is actually starting to get more disgusting.
S.
mp said: "Sorry, but they (Harvard) are a bunch of intellectual inbreeders."
Well, thank God we've got "better" people here.
I think this blog is actually starting to get more disgusting.
S.
Sebastian | 04.17.08 - 7:33 pm | #
I do beleive that is a very low blow to the inbreeders also.
I agree with the 15-20% guestimate. The only caveat is that consumer balance sheets, while still weak in the early nineties, are even worse off this time around. This could mean even more downside now that the ATM is closed. But then again, it is different this time.
To: Minister of Truth
Q. Any sign of a bottom in Las Vegas real estate?
SeattleSun
Back in the Emerald City
Tis explains the huge banner in front of Lowes: Contractor Business Sale- Loans 3%!!!
Did I mention the banner was huge?
Well, I am doing some smaller remodeling myself. Old house. I figure we can't sell it in this market, but we could upgrade it to enjoy it ourselves. If you put in the elbow grease, it is a lot less expensive.
dd, thank you for digging up the madam's phone book of regular johns for the Harvard Ho House, as well as their laughable predictions. Saved me the trouble.
The more frequently you're proven wrong, the more frequently your predictions are quoted.
I'm glad that we're helping the economy by remodelling the basement; but by paying CASH, we get to help the economy without helping the bankers.
Got to love it.
Instead of sponsoring a child overseas, or maybe in addition to, we might need to think sponsoring a home improvement contractor. We could have their pictures on the brochures, pick the contractor you want to sponsor.
Outsider | 04.17.08 - 6:30 pm | #
I want to see Sally Stuthers wandering through a Lowe's, mushing about the poor guys who have no life since the credit crunch.
Maudlin music plays and you see two guys playing pinochle to pass the time.
STH...Save the Homebuilder
And I damned sure want a thank you note.
Wait...isn't that they're calling the new congress bill?
Now I really want a thank you note.
I look at that chart and I wonder what the sudden change was in the early 70s when the trend change from flat to rising. But I look at that bump and the current one and I'll predict that stainless steel will be the "avacado green" of the 2020s. And granite countertops the "double wall oven."
I think this blog is actually starting to get more disgusting.
You ever hear the one about the boil sucker?
May have been a previous link. I got it off Jesse's cafe american. Here comes the Alt A crisis, mr mortgage about ten minutes
YouTube - Mr Mortgage - HERE COMES THE ALT-A CRISIS 4-16-08
we get to help the economy without helping the bankers.
YouTube -
Every dollar in the economy has been lent into it. We are always paying the owners of the federal reserve whether we like it or not.
Sebastian- "I think this blog is actually starting to get more disgusting."
Sebastian, be careful, or I'll have no choice but to lay some of your own dialectic on you.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"Don't inflate out of financial mess: Fed's Fisher "
Trying to solve the financial industry's structural problems with more interest rate cuts would only worsen the situation by raising inflation, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Thursday
"The answer ... is not to compound the bad by repeating the oft-prescribed remedy of inflating our way out of our predicament with a wing-and-a-prayer promise that it can always be reined in later," Fisher said.
"To wrap ourselves in the toxic, defensive mantle of protectionism ... is akin to embracing inflation as a remedy to the credit market correction," he said.
Fisher for President '08.
"I think this blog is actually starting to get more disgusting.
You ever hear the one about the boil sucker?"
I haven't heard that 'joke' since about 1959.
A question for the board;
Over at Minyanville, there is a thought line that has said dollar devaluation and asset inflation goes hand in hand (ie. a 30% decline in the dollar and a 15% rise in the DOW = bull market?). Tonight on his show Larry Kudlow, Mr. cutratesnow himself, has called for the FED to RAISE rates 25-50bps at the next meeting to strengthen the dollar. My question is:
1.) Do you believe that the falling dollar allowed stocks to go up (I do)
2.) If rates are raised, the stock market tanks (I am not sure)
Lets put our thinking caps on.
Cal,
Fisher must have missed this one:
Expired
Kohn is even more sanguine:
"Banks must continue to focus on improving their management of counterparty risks. During the financial market disruptions surrounding the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management almost 10 years ago, counterparty risk was a central concern. Subsequently, a private-sector group called the Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group developed a set of best practices for counterparty risk that greatly helped to set the tone for the needed improvements. These efforts do not appear to have been wasted, as attested to by the lack of serious losses from defaults of hedge fund counterparties in the recent turmoil. However, banks do not appear to have followed those best practices for their counterparty relationships with monoline financial guarantors, where counterparty risk has crystallized into large losses."
Um, more coming down the pike?
Another nugget:
"All banks--large and small--need to consider whether they need greater capital cushions. The largest banks should consider whether their changing business model means that they need to hold more capital against some of the newer risks I discussed earlier. It is especially concerning that so many of these newer risks have arisen at the same time. Smaller banks must make sure their capital is sufficient to protect against the risk associated with the greater concentrations that have seemed to accompany the increased competition from securities markets."
Translation: You idiots don't have enough capital to survive crisis. So stop making stupid boneheaded loans to wall street. Now, what does this mean?
Krugman is right. More sewage is coming up from the floorboards, and the pumps are working full blast.
The next wave will be special.
Someday this war's gonna end...
AllenM- "More sewage is coming up from the floorboards,..."
Very colorful.
JJL,
The rates will of course go up, someday.
If they go up in a couple of weeks, the markets will certainly tank.
If the increase comes after a long period of cuts or inaction during which the dollar slide against major currencies attains supersonic speeds, then the markets might cheer the increase. In between these two scenarios, anything can happen.
JJL, I'm not so sure about the dollar theory. Regarding interest rates, that's another story. From a fundamental point of view, the lower risk-free rate would tend to push equities higher.
If rates are raised, the stock market tanks (I am not sure)
This is probably is more dunce cap by me than thinking cap, but raising rates at this point will increase savings. This will decrease borrowing by the US consumer. Other countries have had a mercantilist approach to the US. If the US consuming is not consuming why support the dollar? If they pull their backing on the dollar interest rates on bonds will go up. The US consumer then will increase savings drawing money out of the stock market and into fixed instruments.
This kind of news is not bad for those of us who can "do it yourself". Most of us are going to be spending more years in our current house so why not do the things that make it more to our taste and add features we need? Prices of stuff at Home Depot and Lowes will drop and we can take advantage of that. Contractors may be hungry and happy to get work also.
Joy has the right idea.
I bought my old house in 71 and we lived in it till 96. I added a bedroom, skylights and remodeled the baths, utility and kitchen myself. Took a bit of time as it was all out of current income.
This house was a real fixer but we could afford it on one income. Had a large lot in an improving area.
Hope none of you have to sell in this crappy market.
this is my perspective as the owner of a residential design/build company:
hell yeah that figure is optimistic! we've seen a significant slow down in the expenditures of home owners on home improvements. hell, even myself, i've slowed down on the things i'll buy for the house.
sure we have a steady flow of clients doing their thing but nothing like before. before it was every tom dick and college graduate doing a 95% ltv mini perm based on the appraised as completed value.
it took my simple mind a long time to even understand why and how the banks would lend homeowners money to improve their house based on what the value might be. then i got it and worked the hell out of it.
nonetheless, what we see today are the senior associate types who bought a small house in a great location who dont/cant move but need more space because kid number 2 or 3 is on the way. they have cash and steady income so they can pay.
but the lil old lady that lived in her family house for 30 years aint getting an asset based loan for her renovations anymore.
take it from me, boots on the ground, feeling every second of this - shit is way slower than 4.8%!!!
U.S. video game sales rise 57 percent in May
U.S. video game sales rise 57 percent in May
| Reuters
Talk about getting a jump om the headline. Ummmmmm this April.
TG if you think the FED raising rates by even 50bps will increase the NEGATIVE savings rate of the good old USA you need to read some more.
Nobody saves, and everybody owes. It keeps things moving along.
All financial institutions are hurting in Central California, except one (because they lowered their loan loss provision):
Bakersfield Bubble
Sorry if someone has already linked to this earlier (couldn't read all comments today), but this at Reuters is interesting:
Experts see Depression parallels in U.S. crisis
| Reuters
A panel discussion at a college in upstate New York filled with economists (including a fellow of the AEI, no less) drawing parallels between now and the
Depression. Lots of anti-Fed talk, some pro-Volcker.
Worth a glance.
It occurs to me that some home remodeling might not get done because it won't add value to the selling price. The things that will still be done will be the more pragmatic additions, minus imported snob appeal touches.
Talk about smoking the crack!
I believe with a name like JOINT Center, the question is whether the spiff is cut with crack or angel dust.
Gee, Crispy, the Bakersfield paper threw the president of San Joaquin Bank some real hardball questions, didn't they?
I'm much too timid to predict company earnings, but with the way the Home Depot stores are treating their employees (cutting hours, forced relocation, general low morale), their shrinkage is going to go from large to enormous. Every time I hear a new story about how their employees have found a new way to move product out the back door (or the front for that matter) I'm amazed at the criminal ingenuity. Locally they just started verifying large items (water heaters, stoves) moving out of the door, makes me think that they lost a few.
I've made a few snide remarks (no, really!) about their computer inventory that never seem to match with the stock on hand.
I just realized my kitchen decor still reflects the taste of the person who sold it to us 8 years ago, the basement is still only partially finished...there are some minor holes/cracks in the walls. The faucets are oxidizing and starting to leak. The vanities were cheap in 1978. This kind of thing. We did extract equity to put up a deck and fence, but we are just glad to have significant paper equity at this point and don't plan to piss it away. We can budget $200 or so for each miniproject (paint, spackle, caulk, wallpaper, faucets, etc.) and trickle them out over the next couple of years while we save for the more expensive items that will be difficult to do ourselves.
Gee, Crispy, the Bakersfield paper threw the president of San Joaquin Bank some real hardball questions, didn't they?
Yeah, they forgot to ask: "What is your name? Bart Hill What is your quest? I seek the Holy Grail What is your favorite colour? Blue, no, pink! Aaaaarghhh"
Someday this war's gonna end...
AllenM | 04.17.08 - 9:43 pm | #
Did anyone ever answer your tag line with CCR?
YouTube - Creedence Clearwater Revival: Someday Never Comes
mp - Yeah. I think he is on the newspaper board of directors...
sdtfs - lmao!!!
I'm with you, Joy. I've just never understood how people can want to spend all their evenings refinishing floors or ripping out cabinets. I usually like a house when I buy it, run it into the ground over 5-10 years or so, then fix it up just in time to sell it. Works for me. But I wouldn't want to go to all that trouble in this market.
OT, but with GOOG's good earnings report, why are the index futures down?
I've just never understood how people can want to spend all their evenings refinishing floors or ripping out cabinets
For some people it's all about the journey, not the destination. When they can't make any more improvements, they look for a new house/project.
Two words: More cowbell.
i'm miss that guy... where'd he go
otal money market mutual fund assets fell by $52.03 billion to $3.484 trillion for the week, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.
Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds fell by $6.54 billion in the latest week to $1.263 trillion.
Assets of taxable money market funds in the retail category fell by $4.60 billion to $960.65 billion for the week ended Wednesday, the Washington-based mutual fund trade group said. Tax-exempt fund assets fell by $1.93 billion to $301.93 billion.
Assets of institutional money market funds fell by $45.49 billion to $2.222 trillion for the same period. Among institutional funds, taxable money market fund assets fell by $39.27 billion to $2.038 trillion; assets of tax-exempt funds fell by $6.22 billion to $183.57 billion.
The seven-day average yield on money market mutual funds fell in the week ended Tuesday to 2.13 percent from 2.21 percent the previous week, said Money Fund Report, a service of iMoneyNet Inc. in Westboro, Mass. The 30-day average yield fell to 2.20 percent from 2.33 percent, according to Money Fund Report.
Marcus Aurelius writes:
Two words: More cowbell.
Are you surfing CR and The Big Picture at the same time again?
Co-worker gave me a 10 minute lecture about "buy now before the price of house goes up again." He explained to me that the price of everything is going up, therefore houses will cost more in the future. I tried to explain that because things like food and gas are going up, people won't have money to spend on housing so much.
After he left some other co-workers came over and were talking... they both own houses and I got to hear about how one bought for $270k and it went up to like $800k, and the other bought in a not so great neighborhood... the older said... "it's going to start getting weird..." .
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/59/Cowbell.gif
Investors are pointing fingers at the likes of UBS, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo and Piper Jaffray. Wells Fargo was sued this week by a California firm seeking to represent multiple clients.
In a prepared statement, Wells Fargo said, "The industry is dealing with difficult challenges caused by unprecedented events the past few months in the auction-rate market. ... We're doing what we can to support our customers who hold these securities."
Piper Jaffray declined to comment Thursday about what could prove to be a lawyers' holiday.
"We are in the first act of the dance of a thousand veils," said Terry Fruth, a veteran securities lawyer who is meeting with prospective clients and other lawyers. "One thing these auction-rate securities are not: a money-market sort of fund."
Broken securities market draws fire | StarTribune.com
One more quote from previous story:
"The Wall Street houses and banks want to minimize more capital-eating write-offs. Some are lending to their customers and letting them use the auction-rate securities as collateral."
Not only are Auction rate securities nice for last second window dressing, but you can loan them out or rent them!
Given that home equity is tapped out for many people, this decline was inevitable and will probably get worse.
This is probably is more dunce cap by me than thinking cap, but raising rates at this point will increase savings.
Probably not - higher rates will increase unemployment even faster than it is already increasing & that - in aggregate - will drive savings even lower.
At least for awhile - until we move well into recovery.
What it will also do is drive consumption lower NOW... and drive domestic production of goods & services lower too.
Consumption is going lower no matter what - the only question is will it be because the dollar is worth less or is it because we have higher unemployment. One way or the other the imbalances rebalance.
hey dry. hope you're well. things here are crazy hectic. keeping on topic, our residential design/build shop is slow as hell but the same people have transitioned into commercial (where they came from in the first place) very easily which makes for a nice recession time transition.
lets see how they handle the move into institutional.
leasing and sales for us are all about dead but thats mostly due to lack of effort.
i've transitioned into more of a straight up acquisitions specialist with a little of the people management stuff on the side. no more project management here because i suck at it. but we're seeing the whole gamut of building project moving ahead albeit in smaller volumes.
55k commercial exurban stuff, 500 lot land development deals, 150k urban base building mixed use projects, little quirky infill stuff etc etc.
just had a great ground breaking that felt surreal.
all this on the anniversary of the King riots and the misery than ensued for FORTY years.
funny thing - as i was explaining my depression garden to my city friends (i have the good fortune of having land in the city upon which to have a garden) i told them that i might be growing corn soon enough full time on my acre.
LOL
hope you are doing well dryfly, i miss hearing more of your insights
OT:
If stock markets are really forward indicators of economies, what's the Shanghai market saying about China?
Good news from the credit front: Credit may be easing
Don't trouble yourselves with that little blurb at about the Fed swapping $159B worth of Treasuries for "more risky" collateral. Utterly meaningless.
hope you are doing well dryfly, i miss hearing more of your insights
dc1000 | 04.18.08 - 12:13 am | #
Hey dc - I'm trying to transition myself. Chasing aerospace hard again... haven't done that since the late 90s.
I don't have a lot of solid 'ag suppliers' anymore - else I'd be there too. Too many of my clients (the guys I sell for) are wrapped up in automotive - I think more than one will go POOF...
Aerospace is hot right now... really hot. Planes are old & the carriers need better fuel efficiency or they won't make it. They have to replace a good portion of the fleet even if passenger miles decline in this recession.
If that doesn't work I'm going to hibernate. Wake up when the recovery comes.
Marcus Aurelius
i'm with ya...gotta have more cowbell,
but as the fed approaches zirp we'll have to kiss the cowbell good bye
If stock markets are really forward indicators of economies, what's the Shanghai market saying about China?
China's markets are as predictive of the China recovery as Las Vegas crap tables are of the US economy.
Dryfly
an organization called crestmont research has some interesting graphs and presentations that show clearly the rise and fall of the dow does not presage corresponding changes in the economy...gdp.
Hey dc - if you are still out there... check this:
Comment on earlier thread...
I posted that at the end of CR's article on the TED spread. That is what happens to mfg companies in tight credit markets - they require projects to pay back in less than a year or NO-GO. Its an innovation killer for sure.
I haven't seen hurdles the high on viable long running & profitable product lines since the 80s.
Seriously.
BTW - that part goes into a product HEAVILY used in commercial RE & top end res RE development... improved component for HVAC application. I can't say more since it isn't out on the market yet & I signed NDAs... but you will be using them in about a year or two.
No more cowbell! We have clearly had a field day with cowbells and it's time to round the herd up and go to slaughter!
an organization called crestmont research has some interesting graphs and presentations that show clearly the rise and fall of the dow does not presage corresponding changes in the economy...gdp.
mock turtle | 04.18.08 - 12:51 am | #
I've always thought that. That the dow is a good predictor of the future economy like your rear view mirror is a good predictor of road conditions ahead. I mean the road ahead probably is pretty much like the road you've just gone over so the rear view mirror 'predicts' just fine...
Until it doesn't any more and you are in the ditch. Same with the dow...
there's a great skit on saturday night live where the record producer tells the band their sound is dynamite...except for one thing...he's gotta have more cowbell.
the skits funny because th entire band is pretty talented except for the guy striking the cowbell, who has been a nuisance to the rest of the band, but when the producer asks for more, well the cowbell goes outta control...
like big ben and the interest rate cuts.
used to be a good youtube link for the skit but they took the audio down and substituted the WRONG tune. copyright issue guess
25 online right now? i bet the dow soars tomorrow....
ok, back to watching foster dogs kick the sh*t out of themselves and love it...
ahhh the joys of just being concerned about your next meal.... actually who am i kidding... i was thinking about lunch at 9:45 this morning....
cheers!
I am currently driving through a particularly hard hit area of Northern California about twice per week, in order to get a sense of the time to buy into it. There is a large number of forclosures in the neighborhood, which is why I noticed it. As I was driving through on a Sunday, however, I noticed piles of old furniture, washers, dryers, water heaters, toilets, and wood, lots of wood, being set out for the trash. This is in front of the houses that are not currently in foreclosure too. I surmise that there is a remodeling boom going on in the neighborhood in order to get these houses available for sale before they foreclose.
This neighborhood is a blue collar neighborhood, where I suspect that a lot of the people in the homes are, or more probably were, in the construction trades. This neighborhood soon might be 20% unoccupied.
bob - you're currently driving? Please stop texting & watch the road!
Re: mock turtle
More than just a skit about a song. It explains the genesis of the cowbell in "Don't fear the Reaper" by Blue Oyster Cult.
YouTube -
dryfly sez:
"China's markets are as predictive of the China recovery as Las Vegas crap tables are of the US economy."
second that... but what it's saying about the Chinese punters' psyche, I think, is that there's fear about the gov'ts anti-inflation "macro measures" which get lots of coverage. Also dilution issues with certain stocks as well as the supply of new ones on stream.
Once worried about the fallout of an bubble in equities, now the authorities can worry about having "fixed it".
Alt-A fiasco.
YouTube - Mr Mortgage - HERE COMES THE ALT-A CRISIS 4-16-08
Citi losses bigger than expected, stock surges. Just as I expected.
Citi loses were LESS than expected, just awful instead of apocalyptic.
Honeywell, Cat and Google had blow out earnings after IBM was better than expected. Futures are out of sight.
We are going to see a lot of short whining here on Calculated Risk today. It would seem that the end of the world has been postponed.
Did they say 4.8% or 48%?
Hi DC,
According to a survey of analysts by Bloomberg the loss of $5.01billion is worse than the $4.75billion expected.
Even on Bizarro world we know to check first speak after.
Dollar soaring overnight against Yen and Euro.
Does this mean a down day for WallSt.?
Daisy, I don't know which analyst survey you are looking at, but C lost $1.02 a share while according to MarketWatch "Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected the firm to report a loss of 95 cents a share", while Bloomberg still reports estimated EPS for Q1 at -0.92.
OK, Citi's results were only a little worse than expected, which is good. Now WS seems to be going by the sign of the second derivative of the loss curve!
I see tulips...
Allegations of fraud and conspiricy among SEC, FRB, JPM, and Tresuary regarding Bear Sterns deal
404 Not Found
Hey, where's my recession bar on the graph? We need that bar - as we all know, The Powers That Be won't acknowledge this recession now or ever, so it's up to CR and Tanta.
Don't worry folks, if you didn't get the right number in your "how much did Citi lose?" pool there'll be another one starting in a couple of months.
On a related note, RBS is basically having a capital call on its shareholders to the tune of $20-25bn.
Happy Days Are Here Again
!!!!
yyy. The link is down.
Bandwidth Limit Exceeded
The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to the site owner reaching his/her bandwidth limit. Please try again later.
PMs in freefall.
24-hour Spot Chart - Gold
24-hour Spot Chart - Silver
The last time I saw fx move this sharply, it was a coordinated CB/FCB intervention early in the Clinton years.
A lot of short positions experienced spontaneous combustion then.
BTW, someone was impersonating me earlier Ipodius | 04.17.08 - 7:44 pm | was not me, as I was in the middle of teaching a class then. I think this blog *is" getting more disgusting. I hope you can find out who that was CR and remove those posts.
The REAL ipodius
@ Anon Bosche
Yes it is but if you "cache" it you should be able to pull it up. If that doesn't work I'll post here if you'd like.
I usually like a house when I buy it, run it into the ground over 5-10 years or so, then fix it up just in time to sell it. Works for me. But I wouldn't want to go to all that trouble in this market.
I'm there but I don't hold out realistic hopes of selling it. So I decided to change the house that I have. I swear if I have to look at Mrs. S's choice of wallpaper and flooring anymore I will probably go postal. Plus the maintenance is needed because the house is old and the cracks are beginign to show--might as well replace the broken doors with snazzy new ones frex.
"We are going to see a lot of short whining here on Calculated Risk today."
nope.
can i haz twm pleez
¥=105!
Ted Spread. Bed Spread. You'll need that graphic and plenty of it for nighttime cover as you'll be sleeping on your lawn as they Repo your house.
Home-improvement spending is unlikely to improve until 2009, and the second half of 2008 is shaping up to be weaker than the first, according to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Blogger: Blog not found
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