DOW has crossed over 12,700-12,800, big technical breakout. The bulls are in charge for the next 3 months no matter how much complaining we do! Another quarter, more borrowed time.

what is the evidence the cancellation rate has peaked? Q1 2008 > Q1 (2007-2006-2005)

let us see what the whole year will look like, at the very least until Q1 2009.

In regard to the previous thread and the overvalued home listing and this new story about growth -- the housing bubble seems to never have popped and as amazing as it may be, the return of the bubble is probably very near.

The interesting thing is the lotto/casino mentality where people want that 300% increases and demand the need to trade up, i.e, the greed-linked drive fuels stocks and houses and debt doesnt matter anywhere in the food chain.

The babyboomers probably neverreallyc lost much in the last year and wallstreet is being bailed out. The Fed and SEC are turning a blind eye to everything and with stocks up almost 10% since the Bear/JPM bail out, is it any wonder that the construction boom is ready to explode! In this environment all bad news is good and there is a rush to confess and write down as much as possible and book it as a mechanism for future growth; it's insane and like dotcom valuations, but this is a world run by nepotism, corruption, collusion and as with Pottersville, let the fun continue!

Re: The March numbers show that overall foreclosure activity so far this year continues to run nearly 60 percent above the levels we saw last year," said James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "On a year-over-year basis, default notices were up nearly 57 percent and bank repossessions were up nearly 129 percent, but auction notices were up only 32 percent, indicating that more defaulting homeowners are simply walking away and deeding their properties back to the foreclosing lender. This deed-in-lieu-of-foreclosure process allows the lender to take possession of a property without putting it up for public foreclosure auction."

I think people will feel things are getting better and buy in. Adds more fuel to the double dip theory, since we will end up with a mild recovery for the second half of the year from those who can afford it (for now) and then an even bigger decline later on when oops, they can't really afford it....

The Powers That Be really need things to appear to be ok through November. After that they can let it all go to hell for whoever is elected to take the blame.

Slowing cancellation rates make complete logical sense. The build rate is down, sales rate is down, and mortgages harder to get. Anyone who is in the market for a new house now, is honestly in the market and fully qualified.

CR is spot on here and I can't see where this points to anything but just normal reaction to market conditions. I'd be shocked if the cancellation rate didn't drop significantly soon.

And contrary to popular belief, RE is still selling, even in bubble areas (two people I know are having their best years ever). The people who are buying have their own reasons for doing so, but the difference is that, now, buyers are more qualified and have the funds. The segment that was buying in the "no money down, take an exotic lean and let's refi" crowd are gone gone gone.

Well Portland, I don't think it is positive per se, just a natural result of the forces at work. The people that would have contracted for a new house and not fully qualified, or doing it for investment have been forcibly shaken out of the market. In this case I think it is pure attrition.

The only positive I can see is that the builders have begun building less, thereby letting inventory decrease so that pricing has a better chance to stabilize.

The good news is cancellations appear to have peaked,...

Why is this "good news" to you? Do you have a personal stake in some of the builders? Or do you mean that from the perspective of the builders, or at least NVR, it's good news? You are not the only blogger who phrases things this way. Personally, I could not care less what happens to builders -- e.g. what their cancellation rates are. Well, actually, TBH I'd like to see cancellation rates remain high, making it more likely that some of them will go bust. After seeing how industrial homebuilding absolutely ravages open space, especially in California, I want to see a stake driven through its heart. Huge sprawling tracts of cookie cutter homes. Hideous sprawl. No public transit infrastructure in sight, or seemingly ever even considered. Completely unsustainable. Good effing riddance.