Somebody out there is making a killing arbitraging between capital infusion prices and open market prices (especially when stocks inexplicably go up after an announcement of a heavily discounted infusion.)
Washington Mutual received a cash infusion and popped 30% in one day.
Wachovia, not so much love.
As time goes on, the terms get worse. And, I think in a month or two, the smaller banks will find it increasingly difficult to get terms as the housing market continues to deteriorate.
In my area of the country, Raleigh Durham, inventory levels of homes for sale have been jumping. Unemployment is increasing. And, we're an example of an area with "good" economic conditions.
The joke is that the hedge fund funding the deal is a JP Morgan fund which was the same bank that got some funding assistance to fund the funding of Bear Stearns and its CEO is on the Board of the NY Fed who helps quarterback the funding of a lot of all of this bank funding.
It is only in 2008 (this winter) that housing sales in my area have truly fallen thru the floor. Im in central CTm and trulia.com's charting tool has suggested why Ive been waiting so long for the bubble to burst around here. The yearly cycle of sales persisted through the end of 2007, despite all the credit turmoil. Now the early 2008 numbers are suggesting that the bubble has finally overextended itself.
Nassau Asset Management's NasTrac Quarterly Index reports a 110% increase in repossessions of tractor-trailers in 2007 compared to 2006. The value of the repos increased to slightly under $12 million last year from about $5.7 million the year before.
A significant portion of the jump in truck repossessions can be attributed to the decline in homebuilding, which affects many peripheral business sectors using trucks.
From the forest to the saw mill to the construction site, along with the movement of people in and out of those homes and the delivery of appliances and furniture to the home, there are trucks involved in every step of the process, said Nassau president Edward Castagna. The rings continue to expand out of the housing epicenter.
Vallejo will inch closer to financial ruin Tuesday when the City Council lets pass its do-or-die date to avert bankruptcy.
City staff members have been unable to come up with a detailed, long-term financial plan because negotiations with the police and fire unions are still ongoing. The city is asking for steep concessions from the unions, whose members are among the highest paid in the Bay Area and whose salaries comprise about 74 percent of the city's budget.
"We had hoped to have an agreement by April 22 to give to the council," said Mayor Osby Davis, who has sat in on the negotiations. "But I'm optimistic. There's always room for a resolution if people are willing to give and take."
Vallejo has been slammed by the crumbling housing market and its escalating public safety salaries. In March, faced with a $9 million deficit and no reserves, the city slashed funding to senior centers, the arts, museums, libraries and public works, and laid off 16 city workers. Police and firefighters took a 6.5 percent pay cut, and the city closed two fire stations.
The cuts are intended to keep Vallejo afloat through June 30. But the city needed to come up with a long-term solution to its financial woes by April 22, allowing it the minimum amount of time to declare bankruptcy if necessary. The city heads into the 2008-09 fiscal year with a projected deficit of $13 million.
If it declares Chapter 9 federal bankruptcy, it will be the biggest city in California to go that route, and the only one to do so because of long-term financial problems. Desert Hot Springs (Riverside County) declared bankruptcy in 2001 after it lost a lawsuit from a developer. Orange County declared bankruptcy in 1994 because of bad investments.
Negotiations with the unions are not going well, according to city officials. The parties met three times last week and the city is expected to look at a proposal from the unions on Monday, but no meetings are scheduled after that, Davis said.
Cutting police and fire salaries is critical to curing Vallejo of its financial mess, City Councilwoman Joanne Schivley said.
"We've already made many cuts, but those cuts don't get us to the root of the problem," she said. "The root of the problem is the contracts the city simply cannot afford."
The unions have said the city has revenues stashed in other accounts, and has shifted money from the general fund to distort the public safety apportionment.
The salaries - in some cases topping $200,000 a year - are due largely to overtime. The Fire Department has been short-staffed for years, forcing many firefighters to work mandatory overtime to comply with minimum staffing requirements.
Union leaders have said the long hours have taken a toll on the staff, resulting in divorces, loss of child custody and an increase in job- and stress-related injuries. The union wants the city to hire more firefighters rather than rely on existing staff to work overtime.
Calls to the fire union, city manager, finance director, auditor and several City Council members were not returned Friday.
Davis said he's hopeful the city can reach an agreement with the unions that will allow a balanced budget for 2008-09. If no agreement is reached, the city will be unable to pay all its bills after June 30.
The City Council is split on declaring bankruptcy. Some, including the mayor, think bankruptcy should be avoided at all costs because of the expense, stigma, and harm to the city's credit rating and economic development.
Others on the council see it as the only way to restructure the contracts and protect the city from lawsuits and creditors.
Because municipal bankruptcy is a largely untested area, no one is quite sure how it would affect the union contracts, Davis said.
"Bankruptcy is not a panacea," he said. "We need to do absolutely everything we can to avoid it. The unions will fight it, for starters."
Councilwoman Stephanie Gomes was not hopeful.
"We've been negotiating with these guys for two years," she said. "It's crazy to think we're going to come up with a resolution in the next few days. It's like a dog chasing its tail."
What's next?
The Vallejo City Council meets at 7 p.m. Tuesday at City Hall, 555 Santa Clara St., Vallejo.
Anonymous writes:
Overseas markets open higher. It's expected. Anything short of a nuclear bomb going off in downtown NYC will have markets going up nowadays.
That would be positive for the market too, because of the rebuilding that would be required. See, everything is bullish....as long as we don't pay attention to the economy's fundamental and structural problems. Even then, we can 'look across the valley'.
BAC raising capital this weekend too! I guess they'll be releasing some pretty grim results. Good timing, because this is the new improved bottomless kitchen sink quarter.
MADNESS!
SKF should gap DOWN $10 at the open. And the wild thing is when the market is on fire it's impossible to get a market order to come back for 1/2 hr using my broker, for that issue.
In Chicago, home prices fell 50% from '28 to '33. In New York, commercial real estate fell 50% over '29 to '39. Nationwide, the value of loans outstanding fell 31% from '29 to '33.
In this Greater Depression, the fall, losses, and writeoffs will be greater.
Thanks for the heads up on Roubini. I still get the sense that he's hedging his predictions- he thinks it's worse than he's letting on but he can't extend his professional opinion that far. He claims the pessimist's mantle but he's been a realist so far.
OMG....gotta go buy a poop load of this puppy...I'm it it for the long term...gunna pop 100% or more in the mor'nin, yes sir ye folks...gunna buy me my full retiermint on this...the feds done back sptuppid this and yus caknt looz money...
CR, households are in terrible trouble. And, when it is all said and done, it is all about households, which own the companies, hold the life insurance policies, and fund the government.
In '29, (mortgages + consumer credit)/GDP was 54%.
Today, it is 94%, a ratio 73% higher.
And, today, mortgage and consumer credit rates are near historic lows.
But, they will be moving up as defaults pile up and CPI keeps marching north.
That is why I look to '29 and its aftermath to get a sense of what might happen this time: because the '20s were the last time that we had a run up in debt and asset values like this.
Here is some more bear food for you...At least 20% of US domestic available seat miles(announced already) are coming out of the system over the next 9-12 months. Perhaps more if airline bk's keep coming.
Another day, another massive equity dilution. One day, serious investors will realize that the banks have basically traded a lower risk of the price going to $0, for a guarantee that the price will stay low for a very long time.
Even if a bank manages to avoid bankruptcy, there will be a massive float and profits will be more difficult to make since we won't be returning to the debt orgy of the past several years anytime soon.
On a side note...
Things have become scarier here at work. There's a re-org to save money and salaries are, by far, our biggest expense. It's clear that positions will be eliminated. Not for several months at the earliest. I'm somewhat sanguine about it, but you should see the looks in the eyes of people in their late twenties or early thirties who recently bought a home.
They are clearly scared to death. My hunch is they can barely afford their mortgage payment right now and if one of them loses their job, they'll rapidly go into debt. They have a choice of someday having kids, or ditching their current home and moving to someplace more affordable like Texas. I live in Maryland just outside of DC.
This news ought to pop the market 200 at the open.
Hey, that is only 40% below market. Ouch.
Looks like that's the new market now.
Somebody out there is making a killing arbitraging between capital infusion prices and open market prices (especially when stocks inexplicably go up after an announcement of a heavily discounted infusion.)
Washington Mutual received a cash infusion and popped 30% in one day.
Wachovia, not so much love.
As time goes on, the terms get worse. And, I think in a month or two, the smaller banks will find it increasingly difficult to get terms as the housing market continues to deteriorate.
In my area of the country, Raleigh Durham, inventory levels of homes for sale have been jumping. Unemployment is increasing. And, we're an example of an area with "good" economic conditions.
Dryfly is right,and it is still a gamble because there is no way to do appropriate due diligence in this amount of time.OPM is always easier to risk.
Some bank in cleveland needed to raise $6 billion? Ghost towns in MN? And that island next to europe is bailing out its banks?
now i'm worried.
The joke is that the hedge fund funding the deal is a JP Morgan fund which was the same bank that got some funding assistance to fund the funding of Bear Stearns and its CEO is on the Board of the NY Fed who helps quarterback the funding of a lot of all of this bank funding.
Fundementally, does something smell around here.
It is only in 2008 (this winter) that housing sales in my area have truly fallen thru the floor. Im in central CTm and trulia.com's charting tool has suggested why Ive been waiting so long for the bubble to burst around here. The yearly cycle of sales persisted through the end of 2007, despite all the credit turmoil. Now the early 2008 numbers are suggesting that the bubble has finally overextended itself.
iceman
WM only popped b/c the terms weren't initially revealed. WB dropped on the initial news which included the diluted price.
Deletion is the solution to pollutio
Overseas markets open higher. It's expected. Anything short of a nuclear bomb going off in downtown NYC will have markets going up nowadays.
Truck Repossessions Skyrocketing
Nassau Asset Management's NasTrac Quarterly Index reports a 110% increase in repossessions of tractor-trailers in 2007 compared to 2006. The value of the repos increased to slightly under $12 million last year from about $5.7 million the year before.
A significant portion of the jump in truck repossessions can be attributed to the decline in homebuilding, which affects many peripheral business sectors using trucks.
From the forest to the saw mill to the construction site, along with the movement of people in and out of those homes and the delivery of appliances and furniture to the home, there are trucks involved in every step of the process, said Nassau president Edward Castagna. The rings continue to expand out of the housing epicenter.
It's contained.....
Completely off topic for this post, but since the looming bankruptcy of Vallejo, CA was covered here when it started:
From The San Francisco Chronicle
Bankruptcy looking more likely for Vallejo
Bankruptcy looking more likely for Vallejo
Carolyn Jones, Chronicle Staff Writer
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Vallejo will inch closer to financial ruin Tuesday when the City Council lets pass its do-or-die date to avert bankruptcy.
City staff members have been unable to come up with a detailed, long-term financial plan because negotiations with the police and fire unions are still ongoing. The city is asking for steep concessions from the unions, whose members are among the highest paid in the Bay Area and whose salaries comprise about 74 percent of the city's budget.
"We had hoped to have an agreement by April 22 to give to the council," said Mayor Osby Davis, who has sat in on the negotiations. "But I'm optimistic. There's always room for a resolution if people are willing to give and take."
Vallejo has been slammed by the crumbling housing market and its escalating public safety salaries. In March, faced with a $9 million deficit and no reserves, the city slashed funding to senior centers, the arts, museums, libraries and public works, and laid off 16 city workers. Police and firefighters took a 6.5 percent pay cut, and the city closed two fire stations.
The cuts are intended to keep Vallejo afloat through June 30. But the city needed to come up with a long-term solution to its financial woes by April 22, allowing it the minimum amount of time to declare bankruptcy if necessary. The city heads into the 2008-09 fiscal year with a projected deficit of $13 million.
If it declares Chapter 9 federal bankruptcy, it will be the biggest city in California to go that route, and the only one to do so because of long-term financial problems. Desert Hot Springs (Riverside County) declared bankruptcy in 2001 after it lost a lawsuit from a developer. Orange County declared bankruptcy in 1994 because of bad investments.
Negotiations with the unions are not going well, according to city officials. The parties met three times last week and the city is expected to look at a proposal from the unions on Monday, but no meetings are scheduled after that, Davis said.
Cutting police and fire salaries is critical to curing Vallejo of its financial mess, City Councilwoman Joanne Schivley said.
"We've already made many cuts, but those cuts don't get us to the root of the problem," she said. "The root of the problem is the contracts the city simply cannot afford."
The unions have said the city has revenues stashed in other accounts, and has shifted money from the general fund to distort the public safety apportionment.
The salaries - in some cases topping $200,000 a year - are due largely to overtime. The Fire Department has been short-staffed for years, forcing many firefighters to work mandatory overtime to comply with minimum staffing requirements.
Union leaders have said the long hours have taken a toll on the staff, resulting in divorces, loss of child custody and an increase in job- and stress-related injuries. The union wants the city to hire more firefighters rather than rely on existing staff to work overtime.
Calls to the fire union, city manager, finance director, auditor and several City Council members were not returned Friday.
Davis said he's hopeful the city can reach an agreement with the unions that will allow a balanced budget for 2008-09. If no agreement is reached, the city will be unable to pay all its bills after June 30.
The City Council is split on declaring bankruptcy. Some, including the mayor, think bankruptcy should be avoided at all costs because of the expense, stigma, and harm to the city's credit rating and economic development.
Others on the council see it as the only way to restructure the contracts and protect the city from lawsuits and creditors.
Because municipal bankruptcy is a largely untested area, no one is quite sure how it would affect the union contracts, Davis said.
"Bankruptcy is not a panacea," he said. "We need to do absolutely everything we can to avoid it. The unions will fight it, for starters."
Councilwoman Stephanie Gomes was not hopeful.
"We've been negotiating with these guys for two years," she said. "It's crazy to think we're going to come up with a resolution in the next few days. It's like a dog chasing its tail."
What's next?
The Vallejo City Council meets at 7 p.m. Tuesday at City Hall, 555 Santa Clara St., Vallejo.
For information, go to City of Vallejo
sssnnnnniiiiifff..........woah!........wow.......
oh man...let's pump this sucker up! Let's buy a shitload of CITI...I know a dude over there...he's cool...
Gimme' another bump, bro!
sssnnnnniiiiifff..........uhhh.........uhhhh....whew!
Yeah! Solid gains!
What's that you say? A failing bank? Man, I want 50,000 shares of that shit AND another hit, if you don't mind! Time to celebrate!
SSSSSSsssnnnnniiiiifffFFFFF!
urk...
urk...
...
...
Dude...
Dude, you okay?
You're scaring me, man.
Oh shit!
Freekin' coke heads.
You all are mad because you're missing out on monster gains? Put all your money in a failing financial co.; you'll be rich.
CR,
Roubini is discussing your rebuttal to his piece tonight.
Anonymous writes:
Overseas markets open higher. It's expected. Anything short of a nuclear bomb going off in downtown NYC will have markets going up nowadays.
That would be positive for the market too, because of the rebuilding that would be required. See, everything is bullish....as long as we don't pay attention to the economy's fundamental and structural problems. Even then, we can 'look across the valley'.
BAC raising capital this weekend too! I guess they'll be releasing some pretty grim results. Good timing, because this is the new improved bottomless kitchen sink quarter.
MADNESS!
SKF should gap DOWN $10 at the open. And the wild thing is when the market is on fire it's impossible to get a market order to come back for 1/2 hr using my broker, for that issue.
cc-, thanks for the heads up on the R- rebuttal.
Hey, CR: What Roubini said! Yeah!
In Chicago, home prices fell 50% from '28 to '33. In New York, commercial real estate fell 50% over '29 to '39. Nationwide, the value of loans outstanding fell 31% from '29 to '33.
In this Greater Depression, the fall, losses, and writeoffs will be greater.
cccactii:
Thanks for the heads up on Roubini. I still get the sense that he's hedging his predictions- he thinks it's worse than he's letting on but he can't extend his professional opinion that far. He claims the pessimist's mantle but he's been a realist so far.
OMG....gotta go buy a poop load of this puppy...I'm it it for the long term...gunna pop 100% or more in the mor'nin, yes sir ye folks...gunna buy me my full retiermint on this...the feds done back sptuppid this and yus caknt looz money...
b-, could you post a link the BAC capital raising announcement?
CR, households are in terrible trouble. And, when it is all said and done, it is all about households, which own the companies, hold the life insurance policies, and fund the government.
In '29, (mortgages + consumer credit)/GDP was 54%.
Today, it is 94%, a ratio 73% higher.
And, today, mortgage and consumer credit rates are near historic lows.
But, they will be moving up as defaults pile up and CPI keeps marching north.
That is why I look to '29 and its aftermath to get a sense of what might happen this time: because the '20s were the last time that we had a run up in debt and asset values like this.
Here is some more bear food for you...At least 20% of US domestic available seat miles(announced already) are coming out of the system over the next 9-12 months. Perhaps more if airline bk's keep coming.
Cramer will pee in his pants on this news. CNBC get out the Depends.
Do any of these private equity funds employ a chartist?
Another day, another massive equity dilution. One day, serious investors will realize that the banks have basically traded a lower risk of the price going to $0, for a guarantee that the price will stay low for a very long time.
Even if a bank manages to avoid bankruptcy, there will be a massive float and profits will be more difficult to make since we won't be returning to the debt orgy of the past several years anytime soon.
On a side note...
Things have become scarier here at work. There's a re-org to save money and salaries are, by far, our biggest expense. It's clear that positions will be eliminated. Not for several months at the earliest. I'm somewhat sanguine about it, but you should see the looks in the eyes of people in their late twenties or early thirties who recently bought a home.
They are clearly scared to death. My hunch is they can barely afford their mortgage payment right now and if one of them loses their job, they'll rapidly go into debt. They have a choice of someday having kids, or ditching their current home and moving to someplace more affordable like Texas. I live in Maryland just outside of DC.