idoc writes:
i would look out tomorrow guys in the markets. almost all stocks, esp. tech, financial, small cap, emerging mkts DOWN after hours b/c of TXN and Cit.
if you're interested in going short, nows the lowest risk time you're gonna get for a while given where we are in the charts and whats been happening with the fundamentals. no guarantees.
idoc | 04.21.08 - 8:36 pm |
Well, if you are a major pension fund, wealth fund or hedge fund you pull your money out, thus creating a run on the bank. The bank then offers you a much better deal to put your money back. Big fish get bigger.
"Where is all the money coming from, and what happens when it runs out?"
When it runs out, we can always open the discount windows to hedgefunds and sovereign wealth funds. And when the discount window runs out, we'll print more money.
idoc writes:
i would look out tomorrow guys in the markets. almost all stocks, esp. tech, financial, small cap, emerging mkts DOWN after hours b/c of TXN and Cit.
if you're interested in going short, nows the lowest risk time you're gonna get for a while given where we are in the charts and whats been happening with the fundamentals. no guarantees.
idoc | 04.21.08 - 8:36 pm |
I thought we might get back to 13000 on the DOW. Might come up a bit short. Time will tell...
I jumped into SRS and SKF on Friday - the nonsensical Citi bump was just what I was looking for as a short entry point. Of course, todays 12bn write down with more to come could send the market through the roof. Up is down, down is up...
And the winner is, ... the ABN Amro shareholders - a bank that dreadfully underperformed and somehow became caught up in a bidding war at the peak of easy credit mania.
So is this it? Was this as high as it could go, before the next leg down?
Wonder at what level will the PPT step in this time. Should they allow a test of lows again? Or should they try to stop it before then, knowing that it could get ugly if they screw up and don't stop it in time.
Andy Kessler laid down his rationale for why stock picking trumps indexing. Here, Kessler -- the former hedge manager, All-Star tech analyst, author and Tech Ticker contributor -- explains why he believes small-cap tech stocks are poised for big upside.
Kessler's theory is that times aren't as bad in Silicon Valley as the popular press would have you believe, and that money will soon start to flow out of over-loved areas like commodities and into the most unloved tech names.
I still believe the market will soon enter the Spring of it's discontent.
J.P. Morgan analyst Carla Antunes de Silva on Monday estimated the four biggest U.K. banks - RBS, Barclays, HBOS and Lloyds TSB - could be facing a capital shortfall of 37 billion pounds in total.
HBOS may have to raise 11 billion pounds, Barclays around 8 billion and Lloyds roughly 4 billion, de Silva estimated.
d*mn. i so wanted to short BCS yesterday. this weekends most telling article was on Libor and who was paying the most to borrow intrabank. it was HBOS #1 and BCS #2.
I seem to recall reading about a Citi research note arguing that European banks need to raise over $100bn overall (could have been $200bn, don't recall exactly; I believe it was quoted somewhere on FT Alphaville).
do u believe the Paulson Put can overcome the fundamental laws of physics?
idoc | 04.22.08 - 10:03 am | #
It isn't 'physics' and they aren't 'laws'. Economic fundamentals might trump gov't interventions but in both cases is people doing crazy people things - NOT nature. As a result just about anything can happen.
doom writes:
So is this it? Was this as high as it could go, before the next leg down?
Jason writes:
It nearly touched 12,900 on Friday. That wasn't close enough?
Teun Draaisma of Morgan Stanley is calling the top (from yesterday's Alphaville):
"...Sentiment has recovered somewhat. And of course, the authorities have made their drastic plays to avert the financial end of the world. But that still leaves us facing a big earnings recession, adds Draaisma...
Existing home sales out. I love this quote: "At the same time, many buyers continue to bide their time with a large number of homes to choose from, while other potential buyers remain on the sidelines." Um- aren't both groups of "buyers" doing the same thing -aka "not buying"?
ipodius - regarding Kessler, it isn't just SV... I think SV is way over-hyped today. Some opportunity still there for sure but the biz is way more diffuse than 90s. Its the occasional well run smallish mid-cap everywhere where the real nuggets are going to be found.
But its like looking for mushrooms - you're gonna get a lot of poop on your boots before you fill your basket.
Also low debt smallish mid-caps feast on rotting multi-nationals in a recession (more fungus analogy). So if you smell recession that smells like opportunity for these folks.
Unfortunately the best of them are many times privately held - I run into that quite often in my travels. The 'Oh Curses' moment when they tell me their company is private (and its run VERY well).
Speaking of stock market discontent, this is certainly an indicator on Bloomberg:
Falling shipments at United Parcel Service Inc. and FedEx Corp., who together deliver 80 percent of packages in the U.S., show the economy is in a recession and unlikely to rebound this year.
From the article, it looks like shipping is down and they don't project any increase this year.
i phrased it precisely the way i did b/c i knew guys like you would get all over me about the technicalities of expressing my point.
idoc | 04.22.08 - 10:21 am | #
Its one of my pet peeves - personification of nature. Ain't no real laws in economics or politics or sociology. People can do crazy shit as long as there are crazy people - see Zimbabwe.
Lord Keynes summed it up best with his bit about irrationality & liquidity. Market participants must ALWAYS remember it isn't nature, if it was this game would be pretty easy with few surprises. That's not how it is.
I hope CR takes a look at the SA and the non-SA times series when he writes up the existing home sales...the lack of a March uptick seems like quite a tell.
"Markel writes:
Existing home sales and prices not only dropped YOY, but fell from February to March"
There was speculation that might happen, as the GSEs added some loan premiums end of Feb, so whatever few sales there were in the pipeline got pulled forward.
I hope CR takes a look at the SA and the non-SA times series when he writes up the existing home sales...the lack of a March uptick seems like quite a tell.
Let me get this straight ... there are, according to the pundits, buyers out there (somewhere) "on the sidelines" and other buyers who are "biding their time."
I used to think I was greedy. Now, I realize I just had an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/business/worldbusiness/22ubs.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin>'excess of ambition'.
From the NYTimes report on UBS: The report also cites an insufficiently robust risk control framework and says the oversight of investment banking lacked effectiveness and focused too much on the maximization of revenue growth.
Meanwhile senior management apparently did not sufficiently challenge each other, the report said.
Remember that March had an Easter weekend this year, and spring break for many people. It was slower than normal. April is going to be better, but still significantly off last year. There are few buyers, especially in the jumbo market. That, btw, is going to pull down median sales prices abnormally.
doom asked: "Seb, what are you saying? Are you joining the dark side of the force?"
Absolutely not, and I think anyone that's still trying to short this market should re-consider. This is the third round-trip for buying/selling a small-cap portfolio this year and I've made money each time, up 11% year-to-date with almost zero drawdown (periods when the position goes against you, for the non-traders among us).
I've continuously held an SP500 Index fund as a LTBH (retirement account) since January, and it's up about 5% on the year even with today's sharp downturn.
First, baby! You are going down....
How many kitchen sinks are in this house?
whew!
I'm glad that's over.
I'm sure it's all out in the open now.
Another $24B in capital to raise? Where is all the money coming from, and what happens when it runs out?
And what will happen in the coming months (years?) as the real estate prices continues to go down?
Oh boy, we have an assembly line of "kitchen sinks" in the horizon.
idoc writes:
i would look out tomorrow guys in the markets. almost all stocks, esp. tech, financial, small cap, emerging mkts DOWN after hours b/c of TXN and Cit.
if you're interested in going short, nows the lowest risk time you're gonna get for a while given where we are in the charts and whats been happening with the fundamentals. no guarantees.
idoc | 04.21.08 - 8:36 pm |
Where is the money coming from?
Well, if you are a major pension fund, wealth fund or hedge fund you pull your money out, thus creating a run on the bank. The bank then offers you a much better deal to put your money back. Big fish get bigger.
"Where is all the money coming from, and what happens when it runs out?"
When it runs out, we can always open the discount windows to hedgefunds and sovereign wealth funds. And when the discount window runs out, we'll print more money.
We'll be OK, there's plenty of back-up plans.
Egregiously (OT): I sold my small-cap portfolio at today's open.
S.
Sebastian!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seb, what are you saying? Are you joining the dark side of the force?
Hmmm....isn't Seb a contrarian indicator??
"Egregiously (OT): I sold my small-cap portfolio at today's open."
For another loss?
idoc writes:
i would look out tomorrow guys in the markets. almost all stocks, esp. tech, financial, small cap, emerging mkts DOWN after hours b/c of TXN and Cit.
if you're interested in going short, nows the lowest risk time you're gonna get for a while given where we are in the charts and whats been happening with the fundamentals. no guarantees.
idoc | 04.21.08 - 8:36 pm |
I thought we might get back to 13000 on the DOW. Might come up a bit short. Time will tell...
Yeah, the rights issue has been getting a lot of press over here and I think shareholders are underwhelmed but this was better than the alternative.
Welcome Sebastian!
I jumped into SRS and SKF on Friday - the nonsensical Citi bump was just what I was looking for as a short entry point. Of course, todays 12bn write down with more to come could send the market through the roof. Up is down, down is up...
ac
u and i had a going at it back last August when we were around 14000 about which direction we were going then. lets not revisit that.
this time its me and mp.
And the winner is, ... the ABN Amro shareholders - a bank that dreadfully underperformed and somehow became caught up in a bidding war at the peak of easy credit mania.
I thought we might get back to 13000 on the DOW. Might come up a bit short. Time will tell...
It nearly touched 12,900 on Friday. That wasn't close enough?
So is this it? Was this as high as it could go, before the next leg down?
Wonder at what level will the PPT step in this time. Should they allow a test of lows again? Or should they try to stop it before then, knowing that it could get ugly if they screw up and don't stop it in time.
the PPT will be in there every day if they have to. the question becomes, do u believe the Paulson Put can overcome the fundamental laws of physics?
I guess Sebastian disagrees with this:
Andy Kessler laid down his rationale for why stock picking trumps indexing. Here, Kessler -- the former hedge manager, All-Star tech analyst, author and Tech Ticker contributor -- explains why he believes small-cap tech stocks are poised for big upside.
Kessler's theory is that times aren't as bad in Silicon Valley as the popular press would have you believe, and that money will soon start to flow out of over-loved areas like commodities and into the most unloved tech names.
I still believe the market will soon enter the Spring of it's discontent.
More to come it seems.
J.P. Morgan analyst Carla Antunes de Silva on Monday estimated the four biggest U.K. banks - RBS, Barclays, HBOS and Lloyds TSB - could be facing a capital shortfall of 37 billion pounds in total.
HBOS may have to raise 11 billion pounds, Barclays around 8 billion and Lloyds roughly 4 billion, de Silva estimated.
Barclays, HBOS may be next to seek capital, raise write-downs - MarketWatch
Brace, brace...
Carlomagno
d*mn. i so wanted to short BCS yesterday. this weekends most telling article was on Libor and who was paying the most to borrow intrabank. it was HBOS #1 and BCS #2.
These markets remind me of my first girlfriend. Every week the mood would change. One week we were in love, everything honkydory. Next week was hell.
Eventually hell won over.
oh, i forgot. the reason i couldn't short BCS is i'm out of ammo on the short side.
idoc,
I seem to recall reading about a Citi research note arguing that European banks need to raise over $100bn overall (could have been $200bn, don't recall exactly; I believe it was quoted somewhere on FT Alphaville).
do u believe the Paulson Put can overcome the fundamental laws of physics?
idoc | 04.22.08 - 10:03 am | #
It isn't 'physics' and they aren't 'laws'. Economic fundamentals might trump gov't interventions but in both cases is people doing crazy people things - NOT nature. As a result just about anything can happen.
Just saying.
doom writes:
So is this it? Was this as high as it could go, before the next leg down?
Jason writes:
It nearly touched 12,900 on Friday. That wasn't close enough?
Teun Draaisma of Morgan Stanley is calling the top (from yesterday's Alphaville):
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Draaisma: “The Bear Market Rally is Over”
"...Sentiment has recovered somewhat. And of course, the authorities have made their drastic plays to avert the financial end of the world. But that still leaves us facing a big earnings recession, adds Draaisma...
Existing home sales out. I love this quote: "At the same time, many buyers continue to bide their time with a large number of homes to choose from, while other potential buyers remain on the sidelines." Um- aren't both groups of "buyers" doing the same thing -aka "not buying"?
dry
i phrased it precisely the way i did b/c i knew guys like you would get all over me about the technicalities of expressing my point.
ipodius - regarding Kessler, it isn't just SV... I think SV is way over-hyped today. Some opportunity still there for sure but the biz is way more diffuse than 90s. Its the occasional well run smallish mid-cap everywhere where the real nuggets are going to be found.
But its like looking for mushrooms - you're gonna get a lot of poop on your boots before you fill your basket.
Also low debt smallish mid-caps feast on rotting multi-nationals in a recession (more fungus analogy). So if you smell recession that smells like opportunity for these folks.
Unfortunately the best of them are many times privately held - I run into that quite often in my travels. The 'Oh Curses' moment when they tell me their company is private (and its run VERY well).
Speaking of stock market discontent, this is certainly an indicator on Bloomberg:
Falling shipments at United Parcel Service Inc. and FedEx Corp., who together deliver 80 percent of packages in the U.S., show the economy is in a recession and unlikely to rebound this year.
From the article, it looks like shipping is down and they don't project any increase this year.
i phrased it precisely the way i did b/c i knew guys like you would get all over me about the technicalities of expressing my point.
idoc | 04.22.08 - 10:21 am | #
Its one of my pet peeves - personification of nature. Ain't no real laws in economics or politics or sociology. People can do crazy shit as long as there are crazy people - see Zimbabwe.
Lord Keynes summed it up best with his bit about irrationality & liquidity. Market participants must ALWAYS remember it isn't nature, if it was this game would be pretty easy with few surprises. That's not how it is.
But its like looking for mushrooms - you're gonna get a lot of poop on your boots before you fill your basket.
Best line of the morning dryfly...very Buffett-esque
Existing home sales and prices not only dropped YOY, but fell from February to March!! Exact opposite of seasonal pattern!
Real Estate Data, Statistics, Demographics, & Trends: NAR Current News
The idiot right rails against immigration, yet is quiet about sovereigns buying up the banks. They are the true idiots.
ok dry. i give up. let me rephrase.
can the Paulson Put repeal the economic cycle?
awaiting grade...
Its one of my pet peeves - personification of nature. Ain't no real laws in economics or politics or sociology.
Sorry, can't resist pettifoggery.
Personification of nature = saying "the computer plays this move"
I can't think of a name for what you're describing, so I'll concoct "naturification of persons"
I hope CR takes a look at the SA and the non-SA times series when he writes up the existing home sales...the lack of a March uptick seems like quite a tell.
"Markel writes:
Existing home sales and prices not only dropped YOY, but fell from February to March"
There was speculation that might happen, as the GSEs added some loan premiums end of Feb, so whatever few sales there were in the pipeline got pulled forward.
It nearly touched 12,900 on Friday. That wasn't close enough?
Well, yeah I don't think you can hold out for hard numbers like that.
Gotta be sensible.
1300 points of breathing room is a lot.
from everything i've seen regarding tightening lending stantards things are gonna get mighty worse before they get better.
I hope CR takes a look at the SA and the non-SA times series when he writes up the existing home sales...the lack of a March uptick seems like quite a tell.
I echo this comment.
I must not understand.
They write off L6B, but have to raise L12B.
Is the L12B to cover previous write offs or should we expect more?
can the Paulson Put repeal the economic cycle?
No, but it can make it significantly more volatile.
Market participants must ALWAYS remember it isn't nature, if it was this game would be pretty easy with few surprises.
Well, don't forget, nature can pull a few punches of her own -- hurricanes, tornadoes, drought... etc.
Man should be able to imbue the system with reason and sanity. One thing nature has over man is the lack of pride, ego, selfishness, etc.
Let me get this straight ... there are, according to the pundits, buyers out there (somewhere) "on the sidelines" and other buyers who are "biding their time."
Sounds to me like THERE ARE NO BUYERS.
I used to think I was greedy. Now, I realize I just had an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/business/worldbusiness/22ubs.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin>'excess of ambition'.
I can't think of a name for what you're describing, so I'll concoct "naturification of persons"
The word is anthropomorphism. Say it three times fast
It's sort of like when PETA people say animals are just people too.
From the NYTimes report on UBS:
The report also cites an insufficiently robust risk control framework and says the oversight of investment banking lacked effectiveness and focused too much on the maximization of revenue growth.
Meanwhile senior management apparently did not sufficiently challenge each other, the report said.
I bet this sounds great in Switzerdeutch.
Its one of my pet peeves - personification of nature.-dryfly
perfectly understandable coming from a nature guy like yourself (which i admire greatly BTW)
i'll try to avoid references to midwestern fundamentals in the future.
4shzl
since we're being picky this morning: its svitzadeutche.
Idoc,
the FED cannot prevent recessions, but they can ALWAYS prevent deflation.
Remember that March had an Easter weekend this year, and spring break for many people. It was slower than normal. April is going to be better, but still significantly off last year. There are few buyers, especially in the jumbo market. That, btw, is going to pull down median sales prices abnormally.
Your search - svitzadeutche - did not match any documents.
?
in a mid-western vein, let's split the difference:
"theriomorphism"?
The word is anthropomorphism
I'm thinking determinism is closer. We're not personifying, we're saying a human activity is a natural law.
doom asked: "Seb, what are you saying? Are you joining the dark side of the force?"
Absolutely not, and I think anyone that's still trying to short this market should re-consider. This is the third round-trip for buying/selling a small-cap portfolio this year and I've made money each time, up 11% year-to-date with almost zero drawdown (periods when the position goes against you, for the non-traders among us).
I've continuously held an SP500 Index fund as a LTBH (retirement account) since January, and it's up about 5% on the year even with today's sharp downturn.
Sebastian
awaiting grade...
idoc | 04.22.08 - 10:32 am | #
A Plus.