Okay... I missed out the comments in the "website redesign" thread a while back, so let me just suggest it here: I think it would be interesting to see some polls.

Such as whether CR readers think we're in a recession and how many quarters it will last.

Or some multiple choice... like: Fill in the blank-

(a) Greenspanians
(b) Bagholders
(c) BSC investors
(d) porcine cosmetic engineers
(e) helicopter pilots

Any takers?

Sorta OT: Hey CR, what do you make of this analysis-- subprime losses perhaps much less than anticipated? (Reuters/HedgeWorld Reg. Required so cut-and-pasting the whole thing).

NEW YORK (HedgeWorld.com)—An analyst blogging on the web site bankstock.com offered a surprisingly low estimate Tuesday [April 22] of the cumulative losses from the subprime mortgage debacle.
The analyst, Thomas K. Brown, chief executive of hedge fund Second Curve Capital LLC, disclosed that his fund "buys and sells securities that are the subject of his articles."

Mr. Brown said his method is to look at the credit performance of the $120 billion worth of bonds that make up the ABX subprime mortgage indexes—in particular, those indexes created in 2006, when what he calls the "lending looniness" was at its height.

Of the $600 billion or so subprime mortgages originated in 2006, he wrote, extrapolating from the ABX, $282 billion have already been repaid and $306 billion are outstanding, so realized losses in this group come to just $12 billion. He considers this $12 billion figure to be reassuringly small, saying, "Pardon me for a moment while I'm non-hysterical."

The ABX isn't dispositive of course, but Mr. Brown makes this case for extrapolating from it: "On the one hand, the bonds were hand-picked to represent the market over-all; they should behave the same way the market does. On the other, they constitute a small enough universe that an analyst trying to glean future credit performance can take into account details such as loan-to-value ratios and loan originator."

Of the $306 billion outstanding, $100 billion is delinquent by 60 days or more. Here it is necessary to make some historically plausible assumptions. If 93% of those delinquent accounts go into foreclosure, and the loss severity that results is 45%, we get an estimated loss from past-due 2006 outstanding balances of $42 billion.

With some further guesstimation Mr. Brown suggests that there will be $23 billion of losses on the mortgages that are not now delinquent. Adding the three loss figures together results in a cumulative realized loss, 2006 vintage, of $77 billion. That's a total loss rate (on the original $600 billion) of 12.8%.

By contrast, the loss estimate that's embedded in the price of the ABX itself is significantly higher, at 18%. The real bears, the "Charlie Gasparino/Bill Ackman/George Soros Axis of Doom, meanwhile, surely has a number in mind that is much, much higher," he says. And he thinks they're bound to be disappointed.

CFaille@HedgeWorld.com

HedgeWorld | Unable to Display Page

Good summary CR. did you get any numbers as far as size of portfolio? Also when did GE spin this off and does Ge still own any of it?

A mortgage insurer admitting that there's a significant chance that they could be bankrupted attempting to make good on claims.

This is bad.

ee-
it's here, too.
U.S.-contracted ship fires toward boats in Gulf - Iran- msnbc.com

I saw the headline at marketwatch.com

UGH!

thanks crispy,

That gives me a better perspective.

My perspective is:

It's not the Greenspan's fault;
It's not Bernanke's fault;
It's not the Hedge funds' fault;
It's not Bear Stearns fault;
It's not the mortgage brokers' fault;
Not the banks, cdo's, siv's, ninja loans, NAR, etc.

This is purely Carlton Sheets fault and his blasted late night "no money down" real estate courses in the mid to late nineties. Funny how he's been keeping his head low lately...

President George W. Bush said on Friday the U.S. economy is in a slowdown but tax rebates that will start hitting consumers' bank accounts next week should help.

Bush: Economy in slowdown, checks on the way
| Reuters

Make sure you buy a couple tanks of gas his oil buddies need the money.

"But I don't want my tax dollars to further inflate the budget deficit and then just go to China and Saudia Arabia anyway."

You guys ever see that MADtv video with Steve Jobs and the iRack. Its hilarious.

Sebastian

If you think the stimulus is good for a country with almost a 10 TRILLION dollar budget deficit you are one stupid bastard.

Sebastian is a paid shill...

no one would waste their time posting as frequently as he does here if they invested the way he does.

"Head in the Sand Investing for Dummies"

by Sebastian Shill

Keep the propaganda machine a pumpin!

I am in Chicago and one of my clients owns a regional retail company and his words were:

Jan/Feb were better YOY than 2007
March is scaring us

and just this week it was:

Retail is bad, I see more stores closing. Our goal for 2008 is to break even and move on to better times.

Contacts in Private Equity and industrial sector echo that they noticed march deterioration and that 2008 will be "ok" but 2009 is projected to be a huge "mess."