Neutron neighborhoods. And at the risk of sounding like Jas I think I was real insistent that this would have to happen even though CR disagreed on the magnitude.
The vacancy rate has been stable for about six quarters. Most of the increase occurred in '05/'06. One would think the growth in the vacancy rate would be positive due to the 2007 jump in the foreclosure rate.
IMO the "jump" in the vacancy rate is due to tighter lending standards that means you have to call a spade a spade. No more speculative flips recorded as primary residence. No more generic suburban tract houses called vacation second homes. REOs are also very likely to be vacant due to bank rules. The current 2.9% is just the visible part of the iceberg.
Check the data -- the "jump" in vacancies occurred before the credit tightening. After climbing from around 1.7 to 2.8%, vacancies have been flat for the past six quarters.
Its hard to attach any significance to the data series other than a whole lot of flippers left new homes empty in 2005 and 2006.
Maybe a big chunk of vacancies have been "disguised" as "for rent". I say "disguised" because they are for rent and for sale concurrently, and because the would-be landlords have set the rent at a level needed to cover the mortgage -- way above the market.
You think maybe we had a condo bubble?
From MarketWatch:
"The total U.S. housing stock increased by 2.1 million to 129.4 million in the past year, with about half of that increase accounted for by the increase in vacancies.
Much of the newer stock of housing is vacant, the data show.
Of all housing units built for owner-occupancy since April 2000, 10.2% were vacant, up from 8.8% in the fourth quarter and 4.7% two years ago.
While the vacancy rate for single-family homes has risen to 2.5%, the most dramatic increases in vacancies have been in smaller condominium projects.
For all owner-occupied buildings with two to four housing units, 9.4% were vacant, up from 8.1% last quarter. In all owner-occupied buildings with five to nine housing units, the vacancy rate was 15.2%, up from 12.2% last quarter and double the rate of two years earlier."
On the radio news in to work, KCBS said that vacancies in California were 7 percent. I don't know where they got that number, or whether it combined rental vacancies with vacant "owner-occupied" homes.
The jump in vacancy is because when a house forcloses, often times it had non owner occupants. I rent a house from an owner in about half a dozen homes in Discovery Bay, CA. He said that the last time he put a house up for rent, he had 30 applicants in 3 days. Many were former renters who git kicked out of their previous rental when the floplord was finally forclosed upon. This is a new situation to him. In the past, this was never the case. The forclosure situation is taking a lot of rentals off the market. Floplords (flippers turned landlords turned deadbeats) are starting to give up.
Watch what Sam does, not what he says. He also had lots of nice things to say about CRE when he was dumping his empire.
As for the Tribune, the size of the equity slice in comparison to total debt means he doesn't really have that much to lose. It's his backers that are freaking out.
Casey Serin used 'owner occupied' on all 17 of his defaulted loans and never got in any trouble. This despite his lenders, the local DA and the FBI being very well aware of the truth. Every level of commerce and government has explicitly endorsed the idea that owner occupied can mean anything you want.
Homeownership-Vacancy society?
Graphs later (I'm at the conference)
When I read it at first I swore it said...
"Gasps later (I'm at the conference)"
LOL. Maybe they are both right!
2% more and one outta twenty homes vacant.
chickenlittle writes:
2% more and one outta twenty homes vacant.
chickenlittle | 04.28.08 - 12:59 pm
The people in the other 19 homes are under house arrest.
That number should start to decline now that people stopped walking away.
Give me a break.
Looks like almost 100% of the increase is in the west - can almost guess areas....is it Phoenix, LV, LA, SD, Sac, Stockton?
Neutron neighborhoods. And at the risk of sounding like Jas I think I was real insistent that this would have to happen even though CR disagreed on the magnitude.
The vacancy rate has been stable for about six quarters. Most of the increase occurred in '05/'06. One would think the growth in the vacancy rate would be positive due to the 2007 jump in the foreclosure rate.
Any thoughts, CR?
IMO the "jump" in the vacancy rate is due to tighter lending standards that means you have to call a spade a spade. No more speculative flips recorded as primary residence. No more generic suburban tract houses called vacation second homes. REOs are also very likely to be vacant due to bank rules. The current 2.9% is just the visible part of the iceberg.
Rob Dawg,
Check the data -- the "jump" in vacancies occurred before the credit tightening. After climbing from around 1.7 to 2.8%, vacancies have been flat for the past six quarters.
Its hard to attach any significance to the data series other than a whole lot of flippers left new homes empty in 2005 and 2006.
Maybe a big chunk of vacancies have been "disguised" as "for rent". I say "disguised" because they are for rent and for sale concurrently, and because the would-be landlords have set the rent at a level needed to cover the mortgage -- way above the market.
Here's a nice 50-year vacancy chart if you don't want to wait around for CR's prettier version:
Interest Rate Roundup: U.S. housing vacancy rate sets a record high
Looks like a rapid rise from about 2005-2007. Talk about overcapacity!
You think maybe we had a condo bubble?
From MarketWatch:
"The total U.S. housing stock increased by 2.1 million to 129.4 million in the past year, with about half of that increase accounted for by the increase in vacancies.
Much of the newer stock of housing is vacant, the data show.
Of all housing units built for owner-occupancy since April 2000, 10.2% were vacant, up from 8.8% in the fourth quarter and 4.7% two years ago.
While the vacancy rate for single-family homes has risen to 2.5%, the most dramatic increases in vacancies have been in smaller condominium projects.
For all owner-occupied buildings with two to four housing units, 9.4% were vacant, up from 8.1% last quarter. In all owner-occupied buildings with five to nine housing units, the vacancy rate was 15.2%, up from 12.2% last quarter and double the rate of two years earlier."
On the radio news in to work, KCBS said that vacancies in California were 7 percent. I don't know where they got that number, or whether it combined rental vacancies with vacant "owner-occupied" homes.
Does anyone know what the vacancy rates were during the Great Depression?
Thank goodness those walkaways are over with.
How does one differentiate between vacant and "for rent" or "for sale"?
The jump in vacancy is because when a house forcloses, often times it had non owner occupants. I rent a house from an owner in about half a dozen homes in Discovery Bay, CA. He said that the last time he put a house up for rent, he had 30 applicants in 3 days. Many were former renters who git kicked out of their previous rental when the floplord was finally forclosed upon. This is a new situation to him. In the past, this was never the case. The forclosure situation is taking a lot of rentals off the market. Floplords (flippers turned landlords turned deadbeats) are starting to give up.
Watch what Sam does, not what he says. He also had lots of nice things to say about CRE when he was dumping his empire.
As for the Tribune, the size of the equity slice in comparison to total debt means he doesn't really have that much to lose. It's his backers that are freaking out.
dear all,
typical doubt being a math major. what's the definition of "owner occupied"?
if i live part of the year in one house and the rest in another, are both houses "owner occupied"?
what about vacation homes that the owner only occupies?
The new demographic: Very Empty Nesters.
Casey Serin used 'owner occupied' on all 17 of his defaulted loans and never got in any trouble. This despite his lenders, the local DA and the FBI being very well aware of the truth. Every level of commerce and government has explicitly endorsed the idea that owner occupied can mean anything you want.