Lots of people on this board have said the same thing 18 months ago. Good to see S&P on the ball.

yeah, the stinger is in the long tail. If you assume the next 18 months are dominated by the foreclosure wave, that 15 month projection, or prediction, or whatever it is, suggests writing off 2010, and not just the spring 2009 selling season.

Yawn! Already priced into the market.

Biggest wave of Option ARM's hitting maximum neg am in 2010 (along with the 5 year interest only's). Can't wait for that leg down.

They will of course take an additional 18 months to offload. People will be so disgusted with the thought of real estate by then. Can anybody say 2012 AT THE EARLIEST!!!!

Like I said in the prior comments section - Now we are talking real money. I like the 400B number!

Drip, drip, drip is not supposed to be measured in multiple billions.

What pisses me off is that being the smartest person in the room is now the sucker bet. You did the work, you saw BS was going to zero. You did the work and saw Countrywide was worse. And your money on those correct observations? Gone, gone to the people who were wrong and lying and are still rich. Richer than they were before you stupidly tried to invest according to the facts.

Lets all watch what Fremont does. The FDIC notice went out March 24ish I think...wez over 30 days!

Everyplace will be affected, but there will be great local variations.

Some communities (counties, towns, neighborhoods) will suffer disproportionatley both in quality of life and financial resources to govern effectively. As I see the SF Bay Area, the poor will be poorer and the wealthy not quite so bad. Could lead to severe social problems.

Yawn! Already priced into the market.

We have a 20 year depression priced into the market.

Don't hesitate to load up on any stock you want.

Everything's a steal.

Don't give up now Rob Dawg. One more quarter at most.

Citi Announces $3 Billion Common Stock OfferingLast update: 4/29/2008 4:25:02 PMNEW YORK, Apr 29, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Citi today announced it has commenced an offering of approximately $3 billion of common stock. Citi expects the offering to include an over-allotment option to purchase additional shares of common stock. The offering is being conducted as a public offering registered under the Securities Act of 1933. On a pro forma basis, after giving effect to Citi's recent issuance of $6 billion of preferred stock and an assumed issuance of $3 billion of common stock in this offering, as of March 31, 2008, Citi's Tier One capital ratio would have been approximately 8.5%. "We are issuing common equity at this time as we continue to optimize our capital structure," said Gary Crittenden, Chief Financial Officer of Citi. "We're pleased with the strong interest we have already received regarding this issuance."

So homes going into foreclosure today - in S&P's view and on average - will be liquidated 15 months from now, or in the summer of '09. So much for the '09 spring selling season - it will be dominated by REOs from the record foreclosure activity today.

How do (all) the homebuilders, banks and IBs survive this? Well, they don't...but you wouldn't know from looking at their stock prices.

How do state/local governments continue their bloated spending? They don't either. And forget about retailers, consumer discretionaries, etc...

So what percentage of the economy is left unscathed? I just don't undestand how the faithful continue to forecast a recovery later this year, with climbing stock prices. Unbelievable.

S&P a little late and few hundred Billion short but it's a start. I keep reading the recovery is just around the corner that must be a country corner and not a city block.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom is gaining momentum

Rob Dawg,
I feel your pai

Massive dilution! HBOS may be having cash concerns and goes cap in hand..."please sir, may I have some more"

HBOS cash call gets sceptical response |
Business |
The Guardian

...met a Goldman-Sachs type guy, who had been VP of Lending for a Major Bank ....I explained how my maid is going to lose a bunch of money as a result of her "No-Down/no Doc should never have been given Loan" that he and his "banking buddies" gave to her..

The Goldman Sachs guys' comment:

"Hey, she tried, she lost. Home Ownership isn't right for everyone. She can go back to the apartment from where she came. Life goes on."

The Bankers Theme Song:

OobleeDee Ooblee Dah..

Life Goes On...Brah!

Oh, How the Life goes On......

Beaver

This is no big deal, downgrading this shit, as this is a component of positive inflation and will help some companies trim fat off very lean bones. This sets up opportunity for re-valuing some mis-priced securities and as such is welcome news and will viewed with highly optimistic enthusiasm! To think that $41 billion has any influence on GDP is like counting raindrops on the deck of The Titanic and heading for the lifeboats too early!

"Don't hesitate to load up on any stock you want."

tell that to my unemployed neighbor, his wife and two kids, who was laid off from his commercial construction welding job and now has to vacate his modest rental home and move back to his parents in the next county.

Barley,

Fremont sold its banking operations to CapitalSource two weeks ago.

How do state/local governments continue their bloated spending? They don't either. And forget about retailers, consumer discretionaries, etc...

Local governments will have to collect taxes from whomever owns the REO. Should the comps show falling values, expect the county appraiser to lower the taxable value (which would generate less tax revenue). A vando'ed house might even be condemned. Some of the local budget expenditures are energy-based (diesel, gas, heating, etc). You can see where this is going !

These last years Americans have really enjoyed life much above their actual incomes. That was thanks to morons like Far Eastern citizens that saved their hard earned pennies to buy dollars. And their Central Banks that bought American debt that no one intended to pay back. Now, they are thinking that they'd better enjoy life themselves rather than paying for someones else's party. So now its time to end the party and go back to hard work, hard saving, hard no buying anything that you strictly need...

Steve thx for the news. How long has CapitialSource been in the banking business? And, will the new/renewed $1B line be enough across their business lines given the downdraft?

Completely understand that its only 22 branches and the ticket was only just over 58M. Still...

I love these 'priced into the market' guys (usually blue hair, big ole shoes, blowing up balloons at kid's parties.)

Hey, why isn't he big recovery priced into the market then?

WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com

Boston Properties Inc.'s (BXP) first-quarter net income plummeted 90% as the company recorded $20 million in gains on real-estate sales, compared with hefty real-estate gains of $781.1 million a year earlier.

From Mish: Calculated Risk discussed the discrepency between Case-Shiller and the OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) in House Prices: Comparing OFHEO vs. Case-Shiller and House Price Indices.
I thought it was the bloggers who were spreading all the bad news that wasn't true. Ministry of truth V.S. the bloggers. Maybe this someday this will be made into a blogumentary. Cheers

Rob Dawg, you have recourse. Gun shows nationwide. Just choose the CR community as your jury.

Let's see... $41B in paper sitting in a hedge fund levered at 12 to one is two weeks GDP of the United States of America...

If Sheila gets her way, it'll be in the spring selling season of 2029.
yikes!!!

Bair Proposal Seeks Government Loans To Aid Homeowners - WSJ.com

So what percentage of the economy is left unscathed?

Military spending!, read somewhere without it GDP would be -2% instead of +.5%. Sorry can't find the article.

Barley,

I don't follow CapitalSource, but I would take the renewal of their $1B credit line as a non-negative (which is not the same these days as a positive...).

So these RMBSs are now rated what, AAA- perhaps? Does the Fed own any of these, or just the CDOs?

bernie reloaded writes:
These last years Americans have really enjoyed life much above their actual incomes. That was thanks to morons like Far Eastern citizens that saved their hard earned pennies to buy dollars. And their Central Banks that bought American debt that no one intended to pay back. Now, they are thinking that they'd better enjoy life themselves rather than paying for someones else's party. So now its time to end the party and go back to hard work, hard saving, hard no buying anything that you strictly need...
bernie reloaded | 04.29.08 - 8:39 pm | #

Do I know you?

Rob Dawg writes:
Drip, drip, drip is not supposed to be measured in multiple billions.

What pisses me off is that being the smartest person in the room is now the sucker bet.

Rob, the economy and the stock market do not move in tandem nor in a straight line.

Patience with your shorts. Just make sure you can outlast the most irrational investor without causing yourself a catastrophic loss.

"This approach is scalable, administratively simple, and will avoid unnecessary foreclosures to help stabilize mortgage and housing prices," the draft said.

It is not constructive to stabilize mortgage or house prices at artificially high prices.

Wonder how the FED taking MBS/ABS collateral is affecting the "work out"/foreclosure process on the underlying loans/tranches that go bad in the now "extra" collateralized pools? If at all?

Sorry, there's been a little confusion from my previous comment. When I said, "Yawn! It's priced into the market" I meant to say "Yawn! It's been swapped for treasuries at the Fed Window and that's been priced into the market."

Yawn! Wink

Standard & Poor's also cut its corporate credit rating and senior unsecured debt rating on The New York Times Co. to "BBB-" from "BBB."

C has 5.2 billion shares out, and 1.28 dividend. (bloomberg Src)

so they decide to issue equity to pay the common divvy?

Fed needs more money.

Or maybe they just need to stop bailing people out of their gambling debts?

Citi needs more money. April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the U.S. bank hit with writedowns on subprime mortgages and bonds, is selling $3 billion of stock two weeks after reporting its second straight quarterly loss.

The shares are being sold in a public offering, New York- based Citigroup said today in a statement. Citigroup already has raised more than $30 billion of capital since December. A weakening U.S. economy and rising consumer delinquencies forced Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit to rescind assurances earlier this year that the bank didn't need to raise more funds.

This was extremely disappointing,'' William Fitzpatrick, an equity analyst at Optique Capital Management in Racine, Wisconsin, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.We were hoping they wouldn't have to go the equity markets like this.''

Can I ask just one stupid question: What part of "Public offering" am I not understanding. Who in their right mind is buying this stuff. Who is buying the hybrid bonds from banks that are likely insolvent. Who is investing in Amback and other monolines that are going monolithic. Can anyone out there with a brain enlighten me.

But Ambac is still AAA. Ha!

My investment advisor, Mr. Strummer, had this to say


The ice age is coming, the sun is zooming in
Engines stop running and the wheat is growing thin
A liquidity error, but I have no fear
Cali is drowning-and I live by the river

Have no fear. He obviously was incorrect about the thin wheat.

Threat Music

bigchubasco,
Well, I bought an equal number of Calls and Puts on ABK, sold the Puts when it dropped, which gave me about a 30% gain over the cost of both.
Now I am one of the holders of ABK June 7.5 Calls that are sorta worthless, but who cares.

So I guess I am one of those people.

bigchubasco - I make no claim to having a brain after my investment performance of the last couple months, but my guess is that the buyers of C and ABK all share one thing in common: a firm belief in the Wright Model B.

calpers, tiia-cref, a lotta other public funds, you know, suckers

"You think it will fly Orville" I use that one a lot.
calpers, tiia-cref, a lotta other public funds, you know, suckers. If that is the case- the game is rigged and were all screwed. If this is in fact a giant ponzi scheme then we are all more than screwed.
Well, I bought an equal number of Calls and Puts on ABK, sold the Puts when it dropped, which gave me about a 30% gain over the cost of both.
Now I am one of the holders of ABK June 7.5 Calls that are sorta worthless, but who cares.

What can I say.

So I have only one question... is $41B considered real money yet or is this another "billion here, billion there" nuthin' burger? I'm beginning to think too many nuthin' burgers gives a dude one helluva a belly ache...

Dryfly
Isn't Trillion then it's real $
jo6pac

a belly ache... that is later diagnosed as terminal cancer. If the Fed's TAF has led to this sudden euphoria in the credit markets then were screwed simply because it implies ponzi finance. If it is something else we have hope. 41 billion and nothin to show for it- Wendy's only went for 2 billion and at least it came with some beef.

The 13T US GDP has been built on inflated assets and debts. For the last 7 yrs, without the tax cuts, the deficit-financed spending for war, the huge housing bubble where would our economy be, the willingness of foreign CB's to hoard US dollars and bonds? Now, the stimuli are waning, the dollars are falling, the risk-averse behavior are back in vogue, new technologies are still in the lab,etc, in this environment even with rising exports, it will be tough to sustain the artificial GDP growth of recent past. So the billions here billions there are more and more valuable, relatively speaking in this economic malaise.

Products and Services Overview

Notice the triple A's vs., all others. BB is leaving his mark.

Inventory not cleared out for another year and a half? Or longer, I'd guess. I'm betting we will see government-backed programs to tear down quite a few single family homes, or what is left of them, in some urban areas.
If you hold a REO and calculate maybe $400 to $800 a month to hold a property for a year and a half only to then sell at a major loss, you'd start looking at moving that sucker immediately at any price... then you put it on the market at a give-away price and have not a single offer. That's when you really start to sweat.

I've been bugging a local realtor (nyc suburbs) to give me a realistic assessment of what is going on for over a month now. She finally said yesterday "last year, this time, we probably had 95 buyers for every 100 homes. This year we have about 8 buyers for every 100 homes, and 4 of them want the same house."

For many reasons, we've been the last to feel the brunt of this storm. But another month or so of this and people are going to be running for the exits.

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