With the increased price pressure on oil and the credit mess/economic downturn in the USA, I think its pretty safe to say the Indian Summer of the automotive age is drawing to a close.
There isn't anything in the US to replace the automobile. Most Americans live in suburbs, not in central cities, and can't use public transport. Not to mention all those in small towns, etc. The US is an automotive economy from start to finish and can't make do without cars, etc.
I think what he was referring to is the age of conspicuous consumption....centered on the Auto. Even more than houses...people overleverage themselves into status vehicles to say something about themselves and their status. This is coming to an end.
ades, I'm in SoCal, too. I was at the local VW dealer two weekends ago buying parts for some maintenance work. The service area was doing a brisk business, but I only saw one buyer in an office with a salesman and zero browsers while I was there. Lots of sales folks milling around.
Barley: Everything is declining, but so long as we fudge the numbers and don't look at the really bad ones, we can claim we're not in a recession. All the individual industries may be in a recession, but the Big Picture must always be one of infinite growth and inflating asset prices.
There isn't anything in the US to replace the automobile. Most Americans live in suburbs, not in central cities, and can't use public transport. Not to mention all those in small towns, etc. The US is an automotive economy from start to finish and can't make do without cars, etc.
Chris
Small towns are great for reduced car dependency. I live in a 75,000-pop town and I've got about 45,000 miles on my 10-year-old car. I drive it to work, but I could also walk if I had to--and I do when the roads ice up.
When I was a kid we lived in a small town in south Jersey. When it was my dad's week to drive the carpool to work, we used mass transit to go all the way to Philly for shopping. The department stores there would deliver our purchases within a couple of days.
That's a future we may be headed back to.
Not to deny that people in far-flung suburbs of places like LA are going to be in a very bad situation if gasoline supplies run short.
We're going to have to reorganize those people into live-work-shop geographic patterns that will work in a world of scarce oil. We might be able to pull it off if we listen to President Carter and ... oh, never mind.
Took my 7 year old car to a dealer for service and they literally lied about the problems with it. I assume they weren't serious about fixing it, but were trying to make me trade it in.
I'm thinking jingle mail with cars won't happen too much, because you can keep moving the car around long after you've stopped paying for it. The old avoid the repo man game.
Re: I think its pretty safe to say the Indian Summer of the automotive age is drawing to a close.
Wouldn't it be an interesting paradox if China got into the car game too late and thus as America destroys itself with debt and too much dependence on oil, China will be buying cars at the top of this economic cycle and thereby end up being behind the curve again, for their next generation?
Something in the news last week about the average age of America's fleet of cars at an all-time high. People are keeping them on the road longer. Wonder why... no, I don't.
Despite the well-publicized stories of people who got way in over their heads on car loans, more people are keeping their old cars longer or buying used from the lease market. Why not? These days, any car worth its salt has at least 100K trouble-free miles on it.
As far as John Stark's comment about small-town living: I agree, if you live and work in the same medium-sized towns, cars are not vital. We have two, but could get by with one. I can bike to work if I choose, she can bus to work (practically door to door) if she chooses. The market's a mile away.
Yes, there is a path through the red tape, I see it now:
...bad credit car loan application is designed especially for auto, car and truck buyers with credit problems, no credit, or unique sub prime auto loan requirements. We also are continually developing articles to help understand auto loans and financing.
REGULATION Z
Implements the Truth-in-Lending Law and was issued by the Federal Reserve Board to outline compliance guidelines and direction.
TRANSFER OF EQUITY
Transfer of an obligation and/or property from one individual to another.
TRUTH-IN-LEASING ACT
TRUTH-IN-LENDING ACT
Yes, we need 10 year auto loans withzero down and no limit on the time to repay the debt..yah baby!
The business person in me says that there is an opportunity here for automakers who can get folks to trade in their gas guzzling vehicles for cars that are so much more efficient that it makes financial sense.
Unfortunately for the domestics, its the Japanese automakers (as always) who can probably best exploit this trend.
he best car loan rates are out there if you search for them. Based on your credit past, you may find either a prime or sub prime auto lender is your best choice. The surest way to find the answer is to request free online loan quotes to narrow your choices.
The Differences Between Prime and Sub Prime Lenders
Prime and sub prime lenders differ in the types of loans they offer. Prime lenders offer A loans to those with credit scores of 650 or higher. Sub prime lenders provide loans to everyone else. Sometimes though, financing companies offer both types of financing.
Sub prime loans have higher rates and fees since the risk is higher for lenders. Reasonable lenders will only charge a couple of points higher for most types of loans.
Who Has The Best Rates?
Id like to find out who isbacking this stuff...yah know...wink wink!!
Took the Honda in for service and got a hard upsell on some additional servicing - just did the 30,000 mile service (2004) last go round - the deal is that the service center is the only cash flow these outfits are generating ATM...
World War II did a great job of rescuing the automakers from the economic ravages of the great depression by tasking them with government funded tank and jeep production, and the like.
Small towns are great for reduced car dependency. I live in a 75,000-pop town and I've got about 45,000 miles on my 10-year-old car. I drive it to work, but I could also walk if I had to--and I do when the roads ice up.
Well I was born in a small town in Nebraska [20,000 people] and lived there until I was 16. I walked to elementary school because it was close enough but nobody bought groceries or laundry or cleaning, etc., etc., and walked home with them. Nor did I walk to High School that was a mile from where I lived. The places where cars can be done without are large cities with neighborhood groceries and other stuff and this is common in Europe but relatively rare in the US. New York perhaps, but even there many would want groceries delivered, by taxi if necessary.
SPRINGFIELD, Mo. The Freedom Financial Group, a subprime auto finance company that primarily purchases contracts via independent dealers, recently announced it has signed a $15 million, two-year, revolving credit facility with ReMark Capital Group, which is an affiliate of the Goldman Sachs Group.
According to officials, the facility is secured by auto receivables originated by Freedom Financial.
Basically, Freedom Financial specializes in the acquisition, collection and servicing of subprime auto loans that are purchased primarily from independent dealers.
"We serve as an alternative credit source of financing for dealers who sell vehicles to customers who have past credit problems or might not be able to secure financing from traditional sources," Fenstermaker indicated.
As far as John Stark's comment about small-town living: I agree, if you live and work in the same medium-sized towns, cars are not vital. We have two, but could get by with one. I can bike to work if I choose, she can bus to work (practically door to door) if she chooses. The market's a mile away
At least ONE car is vital. If you mean you can do without two, three or four or a new one every three years, etc., I agree. But a household needs at least ONE car even in small towns.
Right - Most households need a car - but if you live close to work and the grocery store, and live in a decent neighborhood where you can find friends and recreation nearby, you only need to put a few thousand miles a year on that car. And in that case, if you take good care of your car, it will last 20 years or more.
For the consumer report (car #7 Yaris)check out this quote:
"It actually ranks at the top of the list in both reliability and low cost of ownership, but those factors are not included in Consumer Reports' basic vehicle score."
Yah, very good bet here on subprime auto loans; those guys at Goldman are so friggn smart!!!
n its portfolio acquisition business, ReMark purchases automotive and consumer loan portfolios across a wide credit spectrum. ReMark will purchase portfolios on both a re-occurring basis with sellers seeking a relationship driven, reliable source of periodic liquidity, as well as on a one-off transactional basis, often associated with a specific liquidity or credit event. ReMark generally purchases loan pools on a servicing released basis, but may consider acquisitions with the loan servicing retained for certain sellers.
ReMarks revolving line of credit program provides efficient and reliable receivables based financing to qualified direct and indirect loan originators, allowing such companies the ability to aggregate and grow their receivables portfolio.
ReMark has become an industry leader and a nationally recognized participant in the auto and consumer finance marketplace. Through the extensive portfolio acquisition, structured finance, and consumer credit experience of its management team, and as an affiliate of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., ReMark is well prepared to meet the needs of finance companies and financial institutions throughout the United States.
"upon further review of the affected area and it's designation as a 'distressed area' our lending department (that never seems to answer the phone) has determined that your HELOC (which was shut off a few weeks ago) has now been re-activated for the entire amount".
Of course there is nothing that states any changes to the actual agreement (which I'm sure there has been quite a few changes to the language)
Apparently enough people threatened to cancel them altogether (like me-thus not paying the fee to have it)) or risk having a non-accessible credit line still attached to your score.
Energy,
Work with car dealers everyday. They are buying our software to manage appointment, skill, shop hours capacity like crazy. Service delivers more profit than selling vehicles. Good dealerships have good service department. Sales sells first vehicle, service sells next 3!
My dealer clients have been crying recession since November. 20000 dealers x 78 employee average. They are cutting costs across board. Auto ties into many advertising companies-Google etc forecasts.
Industries Hurting barometer..
Real Estate-on the floor hurting
Mortgage-Near hell kind of hurting
Autos-Lots of hurt, more to come
Construction-Beavers are busier kind of hurt
Advertising-scaling back-more to come hurt
Banking-World of hurt
Blogging is up though...
After the first gas crisis in the 1970s, almost every family I new ended up buying a car that got great gas milage. As I recall, a diesel VW Rabbit got around 40 MPG.
Today everyone just complains about high gas prices. Alternatives to owning two big gas guzzlers exist.
Econ- dont walk in..
Go to the website first and you'll get a better deal. Guaranteed! Also make sure it's last week of the month and Tue/wed/thurs. night if possible.
Try to work three of same make dealerships.
Internet has to hold less gross on deal.
Hi there, this is Hank Paulson, with Paulson Chevrolet. Underwater on your house? Don't walk away! Driiiiive away in the style and comfort of a new Chevy Tahoe!
"At least ONE car is vital. If you mean you can do without two, three or four or a new one every three years, etc., I agree. But a household needs at least ONE car even in small towns."
I made the post you're replying to and yes, it'd be darned hard not to have one car. On the other hand -- this being a college town that experiments with "green" business -- cars are available to rent by the hour from Zipcar. They're stationed around town in dedicated parking places.
It wouldn't work in emergencies, but it's a start. Not cheap, either, but I've seen a full load of college students riding around in one; if they're splitting the cost, it's actually cheap.
People need to understand that transit "only" costs 4x as much and "only" takes 2x as long to perform basic passenger transport functions is because transit cherrypicks to only serve 7% of that particular market niche.
If you think autos are expensive and congestion wastes time just wait until you are forced onto transit.
On the subjects of cars and lending, I read an article in today's fish wrap about car title lending. I had not heard of this before but this is the worst scam I think I have ever seen. Worse than payday loans.
Basically people give their car title and a set of keys to the lender for a one month loan (can be rolled over and over as required) which ,according to the article, can have triple digit annualized interest rates. Miss a payment and lose your car.
In an honest world these loans would not be legal but the article showed the huge political contributions the lenders make to stay in business.
I don't think this scam is legal in NC (payday loans are not). How about in your areas??
And frankly -- college town again -- I'm seeing a heckuva lot more motor scooters around here than a couple of years ago, especially the Hondas. E-bikes, too.
If you're an entrepreneur in a climate that's not harsh, a scooter dealership isn't the worst idea. It's not all kids riding them, either.
Italian car sales are down 4% in February after 7.3% in January. Similar vibe starting to emerge as well about why do we bother buying new cars. (http://www.anfia.it)
Also Porsche North American sales are down 11% in February after a 14% drop in January. Maybe Santa found out they hadn't been such good kiddies after all.
I need to go find a link, but there is a business of renting securities from mutual funds, trusts, etc........nice huh! This is like renting the balance sheet or more like The Fed lending scam like TAF, where you dump something toxis and park it, while you report a different booked reality and then write off the transaction before you bring back the toxic waste, etc...
I don't think this scam is legal in NC (payday loans are not). How about in your areas??
Both (title loans and payday loans) are alive and well, here in Idaho....
And judges here can change the law simply by "judicial confirmation."
Fourth District Judge Thomas F. Neville has given the city of McCall a way out of a dilemma that threatened to shut down the citys ability to offer local services.
Neville late Friday granted the citys request for judicial confirmation, which will allow the city to get around state law that prohibits Idaho municipal governments from incurring long-term debt without a vote of the people.
and sitting in your private box with your hands on the steering wheel is O! so much more productive then sitting in a communal box doing other things. I get a fair bit of multi-tasking done during my wasted time on public transit. Granted, you do have to relax a bit and adapt to schedules (gasp!) and routes (gasp!) that are not your own (GASP!) but I'm clearly odd and can manage this. Odd how there aren't single perfect solutions for all people.
Probably the appropriate time for a repost of veggie oil and diesels run by veggie oils.
below a cut and paste links on Veggie oil/diesel cars etc.
I keep track of alternative technologies / env conscious stuff.
Many find the link below interesting.
Plant a few of these jatropha as a hedge. another wsj article
You should have a look at these type of alternative stuff.
Lister engines run on SVO (straight veggie oil). i.e electricity generation Lister engines
You could also change your diesel car to run on SVO (straight veggi oil).
(search for "SVO diesel" and you will come up with many leads
i.e use the jatropha oil to run your car. svo cars
The Big Picture blog had an entry a few days ago about Detroit house prices reaching 0$. Isn't it time to finally just let car manufacturers fold? I mean, the area is already completely devastated, so what is there to worry about? We can only keep them artificially alive for so long...
LENDING OF PORTFOLIO SECURITIES. Consistent with applicable regulatory requirements, the Fund may lend its portfolio securities to brokers, dealers and other financial institutions, provided that such loans are callable at any time by the Fund (subject to certain notice provisions described in the Statement of Additional Information), and are at all times secured by cash or money market instruments, which are maintained in a segregated account pursuant to applicable regulations and that are equal to at least the market value, determined daily, of the loaned securities. As with any extensions of credit, there are risks of delay in recovery and in some cases even loss of rights in the collateral should the borrower of the securities fail financially.
If you think autos are expensive and congestion wastes time just wait until you are forced onto transit
I lived in Tokyo 1992-2000 and it was the f'in bees knees, transit-wise. Transit was cheap enough to not be a budget item, just $3-$10/day depending on how many places you went.
'course, I was in my 20s and didn't have 2.5 kids. But the mamas with the 2 child seats on their shopping bikes were all "MIxx"s.
When you think about it, we all should be getting an hour of exercise a day to stay in shape. In Tokyo, people get that in the course of their daily life, and don't have to go to the "gym" or buy a stupid treadmill to walk in place.
In Tokyo, you only get from the grocery store what you can carry home.
NEW YORK, March 3 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Monday cut its ratings on Thornburg Mortgage Inc to "selective default," citing the company's announcement that it is in default with a counterparty on a reverse repurchase agreement.
Thornburg Mortgage (TMA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday it has failed to meet a surge in margin calls, raising concern the jumbo mortgage lender might file for bankruptcy. S&P lowered its rating from "B-minus," the sixth-highest junk rating. (Reporting by Dena Aubin; Editing by Dan Grebler)
"People need to understand that transit "only" costs 4x as much and "only" takes 2x as long to perform basic passenger transport functions is because transit cherrypicks to only serve 7% of that particular market niche.
If you think autos are expensive and congestion wastes time just wait until you are forced onto transit."
All you are saying is that transit won't work well for the kind of living arrangement we have now.
Well no shit, sherlok.
Hint: our living arrangements will have to change.
There won't be petroleum in 22nd century. It is just a 2 century (max) blip
I purchased my Miata in 2000 with the express intention of converting it to electric ca. 2010 or so. Battery technology is progressing nicely and I think it will make an excellent towncar with 30-50mi range and daily operating costs in the pennies (net capital investment in battery and PV).
"When you think about it, we all should be getting an hour of exercise a day to stay in shape. In Tokyo, people get that in the course of their daily life, and don't have to go to the "gym" or buy a stupid treadmill to walk in place.
In Tokyo, you only get from the grocery store what you can carry home.
BUT THEY DON'T HAVE LAWNS!
How can you not have a "big yard for the kids"? They will grow up to be cereal killahs!
I'm with the Dawg on this one. I use to ride the T in Boston. I went less than 6 miles each day. It took 1:15 in the morning and 1:30 in the evening. And that was a pretty direct path....
I was in a major city and the start and end destination were on the mass transit line... It was still hella slow....
A fairly interesting paper from the Brookings Institute analyzing various proposals to help fix the mortgage crisis.
Just thought I'd share, I know it has nothing to do with the auto sales article but it is relevant to the general site and this is the most recent post.
I'm with the Dawg on this one. I use to ride the T in Boston. I went less than 6 miles each day. It took 1:15 in the morning and 1:30 in the evening. And that was a pretty direct path....
you're not really grasping this new living arrangments thing, are you?
p.s. 8 miles takes me 40 minutes on the El which is a decrepit piece of shit. cherry picking and all.
OT - Car pool lanes: seem only useful 5% or less of the time, and when they are most useful, they are most dangerous because of the speed difference between the high occupancy lane and the congested lanes. It can be a major undertaking to go from the car pool lane to the off ramp through three or more lanes of stopped traffic.
I forget the stat but something like 60% of highway accidents in LA occur where it allows people to enter the HOV lanes. As you mentioned it is always a person trying to go from 0 to 75 before the guy behind him get to him. If you're ever there check the skid marks at these locations. The roads are pratically black at these locations....
NCJim, Title loans are alive and well in Texas. Saw my first late night title loan commercial last December. It was, of course, sandwiched in between the personal injury laywer adverts.
Zack, I bought my truck new cause the new vehicle premium was minimal. Also, I like to be the one to break in the vehicles that I plan to own till they drop dead. We bought my wife's minivan cause the new car premiums were too high. Premiums were high enough to justify the aftermarket warranty, which has been used more than it should.
In Tokyo, you only get from the grocery store what you can carry home.
Troy
ROTFLMAO
Do you know how thin my coworkers would be if they could only consume what they could carry? lol.
Actually, for years, as a kid, after school one of my chores was to bike ~ 2 miles to a grocery store and buy whatever the family needed. Thankfully it was downhill from the store to the house after the first half mile. The number of times I almost crashed because of the weight of food...
As to cars, I always buy new in a recession. If you keep your cars a long time, its worth it. We just bought a new Honda for $6k under list ($3k under invoie).
Warranty wouldn't really justify paying the full retail price.
Case in point... I bought her a Mustang with 6K miles through the credit union. It was a lease return.
The remainder of the 3/30 was good, then I bought an aftermarket warranty through the credit union for $300 that covered the power train. The terms of the warranty were such that, if you don't use it, you can get a refund on it at the end of the loan's life.
re the small town bit... A couple of assumptions that you may be making should be noted.
First, sidewalks. I was astounded when I moved to Georgia from Colorado at the absence of sidewalks. Oh, they are present in Atlanta and its surroundings. But all those small towns? snicker. Only in front of the businesses in main street, folks. I can get to the grocery store only by spending most of the distance walking across lawns or in the street.
Speaking of the grocery store - 1.5 miles each way to the closest. Well, no, not the closest. There is one 3/4 mile away that is indeed a mom-and-pop. Quality of goods is no better than what I get at the big box, and I have almost double the grocery bill. Noting, of course, that I can't buy many things there (like meat) which are available at the big box.
I've spent a large portion of my life in small towns, and I have no romanticism about them. They offer fewer services. They tend to charge higher prices, while at the same time offering lower wages. And as a rule they are insular - your presence is an irritant. There are exceptions, but they tend to be places with high mobility of at least part of the population (college towns for example).
I really, really wish for mass transit where I live. It's just not going to happen in the foreseeable future.
I was in a major city and the start and end destination were on the mass transit line... It was still hella slow....
all I can say that after 100 years of intensive capital investment a mass transit system can be pretty good . . . mass transit systems here in the states are uniformly half-assed USPS-quality affairs.
zack - new models. For example, Audi S5. If I want one now, buying one used is more expensive than a new order. granted, this doesnt last long, and in a year, car will be less than retail. However, also with this type of car, you never know how the car has been treated, and judging from how people are abusing this on the test ride, and the modding that is going on after sale, Im pretty sure many are getting torched.
But in general, for most cars, totally agree with you.
" guess I don't understand why anyone would ever buy a new vehicle, for reasons other than conspicuous consumption."
Some folks (who aren't home mechanics or don't know any) are put in the position of having to pay $350/month for a new car, on warranty, or $350/month for repairs on an aging one. It's less strain to own a new car sometimes.
I really, really wish for mass transit where I live. It's just not going to happen in the foreseeable future.
It's not an either/or thing. I used to live in an outer suburb of a small city in the Netherlands. The houses were smaller than you'd find here, but we had yards and big box stores and freeways and all the usual industrialized 21st century stuff. I didn't have a car, but most of my neighbors did -- they just didn't use them every day. Things were set up so we could get to work and school, basic shopping, recreation, etc. by bus or bike. And on weekends, people who had cars could drive them to discount grocery stores for big shopping trips, or to the home center, or to the beach, or off on a camping trip, or whatever. Because they had choices, they actually had more freedom (transportation-wise) than we have in the US.
Where I live now isn't all that different. I have to drive to work (it is SoCal, after all), but for a lot of daily stuff I can get where I need to go by foot, bike, or bus.
"Some folks (who aren't home mechanics or don't know any) are put in the position of having to pay $350/month for a new car, on warranty, or $350/month for repairs on an aging one"
Dude, what kind of cars are you driving?!?!
My 10-year old stick shift Toyota Camry has been doing its thing on nothing more than regular unleaded gas, oil changes and tire rotations. Every single thing in the car, from the A/C to the cruise control, works like I just drove the thing off the lot. 30 MPG in mixed driving.
Fair Disclosure: I bought the car used, previous owner had already replaced the timing belt. Even then, we're not talking 4 grand.
I'm convinced that for every good car story, there's a bad car story, for every good mechanic, there's a bad mechanic. In the end, it's no better than a zero sum game, plus the small benefit of having many stories to tell around the campfire in 20 years time.
Every morning I say prayers over my three vehicles. It seems to help.
Wifey. Sorry, she pretty much demanded it. Fear drives her decision, 100k warranty, and very low probability of breakdown. $10k premium to own new, doesn't even enter mind. It's just a given.
Me? The ultimate are 8-9 year old VW or Audi (if the leather interior is intact) Best place: near College campuses. Car goes to crap because of single point failure on something cheap, and from lack of any semblance of maintenance. Have to be weary of the rust dogs, or burnt out engines.
John Stark I grew up in Wash.DC.Born in 1941 at 17th and Irving streets. We could walk to the DGS grocery as well as all types of stores and the Tivoli theatre.We took the street car down town for high end shopping.Familys had on average one car.
I have a hard time believing that Chrysler sold 150,000 cars last month at all. That HAS to include sales to the "rental yards."
I rented a Dodge Caliber from Enterprise for a day recently, and was never so happy to turn a car back in. Slow, noisy, an irritating CVT transmission, slippery interior finish, lame seats.
I was at the local VW dealer two weekends ago buying parts for some maintenance work. Crotchety old man over here still inisits that if it has a gas gauge instead of a reserve tank it's a NEW beetle. Actually the car that reminds me of the classic beetle is the Toyota Echo. Cheap, quirky styling, and a seating position like a dining room chair. The New Beetle has a bizarly gunormous dash in an attempt to push the windhshield far out in front and give it the proportions of a rear engine vehicle.
"I guess I don't understand why anyone would ever buy a new vehicle, for reasons other than conspicuous consumption. "
The warranty, not having to worry for 100K miles, not knowing @$@ about cars so not being able to/not worrying about outsmarting some dealer. And most of all, not having to buy another car for 12-15 years, because I buy quality and run them until they don't run no more.
Regarding the Telegraph article you posted, you know it's bad when the Federal Reserve Chairman has to resort to actions referred to as Chapter 13, I mean Section 13, that is only limited to times of "exigent circumstances".
Exigent circumstances. I kinda knew what it meant but had to look it up anyway.
A number of you have critiqued my post on reduced car dependency and I don't disagree with too many of those critiques. In no particular order:
Mass transit will be less fun and less convenient than your Beemer in most cases.
Small-town living definitely lacks some of the amenities of LA, Manhattan, Paris, or London.
Millions of people live in far-flung suburban areas that will never work well for mass transit--They will need cars or carpools, at least, to get to the park and ride.
Existing transit systems often suck. But that's because they are poorly funded, a transportation welfare system for the impoverished, blind, and license-revoked. They need not be this way. Making them better will be very expensive, and there's a chance (a very good chance) we won't have the national wealth we will need to do the job in a satisfactory way. If we had to build the interstate highway system today, could we? Heck, we can't even keep interstate highway bridges from falling into the Mississippi.
I still feel like I "need" a car myself, and my wife feels the same way. So we have two. But when one of them dies (one of the cars, I mean--the older car is a teenager) we will likely get by with one. If I HAD to get by without either of our cars, I could do so in my present location, although I would feel oppressed.
It's likely that the future is going to feel more oppressive to many or most of us than the present. I think our standard of living is going to decline, and personal transportation is going to be one very big part of that. Hope I'm wrong.
"Some folks (who aren't home mechanics or don't know any) are put in the position of having to pay $350/month for a new car, on warranty, or $350/month for repairs on an aging one. It's less strain to own a new car sometimes."
You must have had some bad luck buying used cars. My last truck was a 1973 Ford that cost $500, spent another $500 on new tires, oil changes, $350 on brakes, and I've put 30,000 miles on it. happened upon a 1990 Chevy PU (I need a full size truck or I'd be in a Camry), paid $1,400 and it has only 20,000 miles on a new engine and drive train. I expect to get 100,000 more out of it. I've had a few lemons over the years, but on balance I've saved silly money over buying new. If I find a bargain I buy it and keep it as a backup, but I've yet to get stranded on the road.
3. Existing transit systems often suck. But that's because they are poorly funded...
What part of tens of billions annually is translated as poorly funded?
... Making them better will be very expensive, and there's a chance (a very good chance) we won't have the national wealth we will need to do the job in a satisfactory way.
Much more than three quarters of all Los Angeles Metropolitan Transportation money goes to the 2.5% of passenger travel by transit. Trust me when I tell you there isn't enough money in the US I mean in the entire US to adequately substitute transit in any one major metro to make a difference.
If we had to build the interstate highway system today, could we? Heck, we can't even keep interstate highway bridges from falling into the Mississippi.
Easy, just give up the big urban subsidies that drain national vitality. Let's start with baby steps. Double transit fares everywhere immediately. Keep in mind that means still no one will be paying anywhere close to the costs their trip incurs. See? It isn't money, just priorities.
What part of tens of billions annually is translated as poorly funded?
Tens of billions? What did the Interstate system or the air travel system cost in 2008 dollars? And I don't just mean the cement: Count the airlines, and the car buyers, etc.
We once did invest large sums (public and private) in mass transit: trains, trolleys etc. Then we stopped, wrote off that investment, and switched to streets, highways etc.
As you say: It isn't money, just priorities.
Doubling transit fares will mean fewer riders. Cost per rider then goes up. More riders brings cost per rider (and air pollution per rider) down.
But it does make me angry when people act as though doing all this will be fun or simple, or that we will do it out of anything other than necessity, because we can no longer afford to fill our personal tanks.
My fear is that we no longer have the capital we would need to invest in a really good transit system. So if the peak oil people are only partly right, we'll get to work by packing ourselves onto standing-room-only buses every day, like they do in Mexico City. Hope I'm wrong.
RD: What part of tens of billions annually is translated as poorly funded?
Tens of billions? What did the Interstate system or the air travel system cost in 2008 dollars? And I don't just mean the cement: Count the airlines, and the car buyers, etc.
The IHS was self funding.
We once did invest large sums (public and private) in mass transit: trains, trolleys etc.
Where do these myths start? The vaunted LA Trolleys were developer come ons to sell real estate.
Then we stopped, wrote off that investment, and switched to streets, highways etc.
Haven't you heard the truth behind NCL? They tried to save transit all over the nation and got blamed for killing it instead.
As you say: It isn't money, just priorities.
The problem is that transit advocates are interested in exclusively using OPM. AS you note in the next segment:
Doubling transit fares will mean fewer riders. Cost per rider then goes up. More riders brings cost per rider (and air pollution per rider) down.
Exactly. Transit is so unloved even people who pretend to like it need a porkchop tied to the deal before they pretend to like it.
They're no match for anyone's 3-series Beemer. But what they do better is get from here to there with penny-pinching economy, and identical status in the eyes of the emissions-testing, parking-ticketing law. And sometimes, anonymity can be an advantage in a car. Think about it (giggle)!
In today's terms, our 2000 Camry reminds me of grandma's equivalent: a 1970 Chevelle Malibu, Robin's-egg blue. Its fit, finish and design were superior to the Camry and IMO, equal to today's BMWs and Acuras. And what a marvel of low-buck good taste!
The 307 V8 and Turbo Hydra-Matic transmission exuded confidence: I'd take a mint example over a late-model Benz. Alas, times change, and a brand-new equivalent is unavailable at any price.
Tens of billions? What did the Interstate system or the air travel system cost in 2008 dollars? And I don't just mean the cement: Count the airlines, and the car buyers, etc.
The IHS was self funding.
How did that work exactly? If it WAS self-funding, it isn't any more. Last time I checked, I was funding the IHS and the rest of the road/street system several dollars a pop on every fillup.
Also, I'm arguing that another big part of my cost here is the cost of my car: the price of admission to the IHS and the rest of the road and street systems that my gas taxes are paying for. We all accept this system that costs us all many, many times the mass transit subsidies that anger some people so much. But this system may be literally and figuratively running out of gas.
Transit is so unloved even people who pretend to like it need a porkchop tied to the deal before they pretend to like it.
Rob Dawg
You bet it's unloved. We love our cars and we hate the bus. My argument doesn't have anything to do with that. I'm just saying we MAY be forced to abandon our "love affair with the automobile." Not by bureaucrats, but by economics. (BTW--if we really love cars so much, why do we enjoy movie scenes where cars get crashed, blown up etc.? Just wondering.)
For all this discussion about automobiles there is almost no discussion of what a huge hit they create to family budgets. Do the math; it a is very, very expensive method of moving around. And that is without quantifying the indirect costs.
The IHS was self funding.
How did that work exactly? If it WAS self-funding, it isn't any more. Last time I checked, I was funding the IHS and the rest of the road/street system several dollars a pop on every fillup.
If you don't know something the correct form is to ask, not tell and hope to be corrected.
Highway Revenue Act of 1956
Currently due to years of funding diversion there is accumulating a 1/4th to possibly 1/2 cent per vehicle mile difference twixt spending and necessity.
Also, I'm arguing that another big part of my cost here is the cost of my car: the price of admission to the IHS and the rest of the road and street systems that my gas taxes are paying for.
Yeah and buses are pulled by invisible ponies? You seem to think you deserve those for free.
We all accept this system that costs us all many, many times the mass transit subsidies that anger some people so much.
Stop this now. It is worse than a lie, it is propaganda. The 'costs us all' is selective accounting.
RD: Transit is so unloved even people who pretend to like it need a porkchop tied to the deal before they pretend to like it.
You bet it's unloved. We love our cars and we hate the bus. My argument doesn't have anything to do with that. I'm just saying we MAY be forced to abandon our "love affair with the automobile." Not by bureaucrats, but by economics.
I'll type slowly. No, transit is MORE expensive and uses no less energy. There, now we are clear. There are reasons for transit but speed, efficiency and cost are not three of them.
For all this discussion about automobiles there is almost no discussion of what a huge hit they create to family budgets. Do the math; it a is very, very expensive method of moving around. And that is without quantifying the indirect costs.
Automobility near always generates more income for families than it costs. People don't own cars to lose money in the sense you are suggesting. It's kind of insulting to constantly hear that the vast supermajority of families are ignorant of this fact. As to externalities, make sure you count the positives as well.
John, your arguing with Robert Cote, a disciple of the Wendal Cox school of Transportation planning. Cote, like Cox believes every transportation related problem in this country can be solved with more roads and highways. Peak Oil and Climate Change will change all that. The one thing we need to do NOW is expand and improve our mass transit and passenger rail systems. While it's true the car will never go away, the next 40 years will see more reliance of public transit as people start to move closer to the cities. The cheap plentiful oil that made our far flung 'burb's possible is gone. Change is coming whether Cox and Cote like it or now.
Totally OT, but somebody here mentioned an ETF based on grains/corn/agricultural. Given an election year, seems to me like the corn-based ethanol madness will continue for another 6mos or more. Anybody know the name of that elusive ETF?
I'll type slowly. No, transit is MORE expensive and uses no less energy. There, now we are clear. There are reasons for transit but speed, efficiency and cost are not three of them.
Rob Dawg
Hey Dawg, I agree with you. What you say here is not your or my opinion--It's fact. I get that. When you look at cost per passenger mile, transit is not pretty. IN many places it would be cheaper to give the riders cab fare. Of course, the rest of the public does get some benefit from the transit system, if it enables the riders to get to jobs, keeps a few more cars off the freeway etc. But no, it probably isn't cost effective in pure economic terms outside urban cores.
YES, Transit gets a public subsidy, (like police, fire, schools, parks and museums) whereas the highways etc are paid for by those of us who use them. I get that too.
I'm talking about the future--what do we do when economics force more people out of their cars? Should we be investing more money in alternatives NOW? Or do we wait until we have a very serious problem that will take years to solve?
Years ago, transit systems were profitable, privately owned companies. Buses, trains etc. Later, when commuters were given a choice of bus or personal car, they got the car, once that car became within their reach financially. (This was a gradual process that didn't really accelerate until after WWII. None of my grandparents ever drove a car because they could never afford one).
Fast forward a year, 10 years, a generation...at some point, we likely will get back to a situation in which lots of people won't be able to afford the car and the fuel. That's what I'm thinking about. What do we do then? I'm not arguing that life will be "better" because it probably won't.
I'm arguing that the way we live now is not the only possible future. That's not a terribly daring statement.
"Easy, just give up the big urban subsidies that drain national vitality.
"
This argument is penny wise and pound foolish. Urban areas pay far more in taxes than they receive in total govt. payouts.
Do urban transport systems pay for themselves? Of course not. But urban areas create wealth, and lots of it. Increased congestion would certainly create externalities such as increased congestion, which would reduce wealth creation.
Fast forward a year, 10 years, a generation...at some point, we likely will get back to a situation in which lots of people won't be able to afford the car and the fuel. That's what I'm thinking about. What do we do then?
Transit advocates have been predicting a transit renaissance since transit peaked in the late teens. Every possible change in the built environment and/or general economy and/or transportation technology won't benefit transit.
Time to move on.
N.B. notice how first time poster "spatch" has nothing to contribute except guilt by association and "don't listen to Rob Dawg". You also might note the pathetic use of real names from behind the cloak of anonymity. That's because some people have such poor self images and esteem and low intelligence that they are afraid of being revealed.
Rail destrots everything else in person-miles/gallon at typical occupancies:
Typical efficiency in urban service
Approximate, assumes 1.5 per road vehicle, 1 per motorcycle, see full table for details.
Mode \tPassenger-miles per gallon
Rail \t 600
Trolleybus \t 290
Diesel bus \t 78
Scooter/light motorcycle \t 75
Smart fortwo cdi \t 74
Toyota Prius \t 72
Ford Explorer \t 21
My weekend home is in a small town.
Need a gas guzzler to get there but I Thought I what about getting a vehicle for running around town for errands. Maybe sort of an enclosed scooter with 3 or four wheels for stability. Maybe $5K
And of course road legal.
Of course the internet was full of such....but not for sale in the USofA.
Zilch nada
TATA were art thou??
I didn't mean to hack you off, Dawg. I agree with a lot of what you're saying. I'm not predicting a transit renaissance, I'm predicting the forced decline of the luxurious automotive lifestyle that I enjoy as much as anybody. My favorite pastime is a long road trip!
When my grandparents were young adults, they rode streetcars. If they had been rich they would have bought cars. My dad bought a car because he could. The transit systems of 50 years ago are gone--the result of public policy choices and private choices. So today it's hard for a sane person to "choose" transit because that choice is either completely absent or barely fuctional, at great inconvenience.
I'm just saying--at some point the future could look like the world my grandparents knew. Or worse.
Rob, go and live in a place like Tokyo for a year or so. And then come back and lecture us about how transit is "so much more expensive than cars." Expensive according to what?!
Tokyo wouldn't EXIST in the economic shape it is today were it not for the transit system! Over 3 million people pass through Shinjuku station daily. And that's just one station. There are 6 million people riding the subways daily.
You going to try to get that number of people moving around Tokyo in cars for commuting every day? Given that a lot of people coming in by rail (which goes 30-50 mph on the tracks) come from 1-2 hours outside Tokyo. How long do you think it would take going by car? (I have direct experience of the difference: train from Tsuchiura to Ueno took 1 hour, 40 minutes if I used the express. Bus? 3 hours if I was lucky....)
Have you EVER seen what is possible with transit? Yah, I thought so....
We will need to simply not count auto sales in future calculations of growth and earnings; same as we no longer consider housing sales, nor do we consider rising prices a form of inflation, etc.
Nothing can interrupt our prosperity, and the Amerikan way of life must continue at all cost. Reality will not be allowed to get in the way.
First? W00t!
With the increased price pressure on oil and the credit mess/economic downturn in the USA, I think its pretty safe to say the Indian Summer of the automotive age is drawing to a close.
Can't really say I'm going to miss it.
This despite the new 9yr car loans.
Cheers,
And in a long February, too.
There isn't anything in the US to replace the automobile. Most Americans live in suburbs, not in central cities, and can't use public transport. Not to mention all those in small towns, etc. The US is an automotive economy from start to finish and can't make do without cars, etc.
do they really have 9 yr car loans?
Chris,
I think what he was referring to is the age of conspicuous consumption....centered on the Auto. Even more than houses...people overleverage themselves into status vehicles to say something about themselves and their status. This is coming to an end.
I live in SoCal... Recently all I have been able to think about is the massive number of new car dealer ships...
People here rotate cars ever 3 years it seems. I think that change is rapidly changing.... Could be very painful for the car companies....
Can I get a zero-down Option ARM on a new truck if I'm planning on living in it?
Is this not the 3rd M/M sales declines?
ades, I'm in SoCal, too. I was at the local VW dealer two weekends ago buying parts for some maintenance work. The service area was doing a brisk business, but I only saw one buyer in an office with a salesman and zero browsers while I was there. Lots of sales folks milling around.
This was around 2pm on a Saturday.
Barley: Everything is declining, but so long as we fudge the numbers and don't look at the really bad ones, we can claim we're not in a recession. All the individual industries may be in a recession, but the Big Picture must always be one of infinite growth and inflating asset prices.
Taking a purely selfish standpoint, I need people buying shiny new cars so I have lots of used ones to choose from. More bad news for me.
Maybe, just maybe, fewer trucks 'cause a soft housing market (I'm being politically correct) and this means fewer folks on the road leading to this:
"The owner of 15 Church's Chicken fast-food locations in the Tampa Bay area and Orlando is seeking bankruptcy court protection"
Bankruptcy blamed on rising costs, soft sales - Tampa Bay Business Journal:
There isn't anything in the US to replace the automobile. Most Americans live in suburbs, not in central cities, and can't use public transport. Not to mention all those in small towns, etc. The US is an automotive economy from start to finish and can't make do without cars, etc.
Chris
Small towns are great for reduced car dependency. I live in a 75,000-pop town and I've got about 45,000 miles on my 10-year-old car. I drive it to work, but I could also walk if I had to--and I do when the roads ice up.
When I was a kid we lived in a small town in south Jersey. When it was my dad's week to drive the carpool to work, we used mass transit to go all the way to Philly for shopping. The department stores there would deliver our purchases within a couple of days.
That's a future we may be headed back to.
Not to deny that people in far-flung suburbs of places like LA are going to be in a very bad situation if gasoline supplies run short.
We're going to have to reorganize those people into live-work-shop geographic patterns that will work in a world of scarce oil. We might be able to pull it off if we listen to President Carter and ... oh, never mind.
Monthly auto sales sure bounce around a lot - but the path seems to be of a ball mostly slipping and sometimes bouncing down some steps.
And OT but fascinating:
http://www.wikileaks.org/wiki/Bank_Julius_Baer:_Grand_Larceny_via_Grand_Cayma
Took my 7 year old car to a dealer for service and they literally lied about the problems with it. I assume they weren't serious about fixing it, but were trying to make me trade it in.
Are people walking away from cars? Are we seeing jingle mail with car keys yet?
I'm thinking jingle mail with cars won't happen too much, because you can keep moving the car around long after you've stopped paying for it. The old avoid the repo man game.
Re: I think its pretty safe to say the Indian Summer of the automotive age is drawing to a close.
Wouldn't it be an interesting paradox if China got into the car game too late and thus as America destroys itself with debt and too much dependence on oil, China will be buying cars at the top of this economic cycle and thereby end up being behind the curve again, for their next generation?
Something in the news last week about the average age of America's fleet of cars at an all-time high. People are keeping them on the road longer. Wonder why... no, I don't.
Despite the well-publicized stories of people who got way in over their heads on car loans, more people are keeping their old cars longer or buying used from the lease market. Why not? These days, any car worth its salt has at least 100K trouble-free miles on it.
As far as John Stark's comment about small-town living: I agree, if you live and work in the same medium-sized towns, cars are not vital. We have two, but could get by with one. I can bike to work if I choose, she can bus to work (practically door to door) if she chooses. The market's a mile away.
Are there subprime auto loans?
Maybe Chrysler will save the day ...
CR the comedian.
Chyrsler down 14%...
c&c,
Link please!
Yes, there is a path through the red tape, I see it now:
...bad credit car loan application is designed especially for auto, car and truck buyers with credit problems, no credit, or unique sub prime auto loan requirements. We also are continually developing articles to help understand auto loans and financing.
REGULATION Z
Implements the Truth-in-Lending Law and was issued by the Federal Reserve Board to outline compliance guidelines and direction.
TRANSFER OF EQUITY
Transfer of an obligation and/or property from one individual to another.
TRUTH-IN-LEASING ACT
TRUTH-IN-LENDING ACT
Yes, we need 10 year auto loans withzero down and no limit on the time to repay the debt..yah baby!
There are subprime auto loans. Any borrowing by a subprime person is considered a subprime loan.
2:55 Chrysler Feb. U.S. sales fall 14% to 150,093 vehicles
From marketwatch.com
The business person in me says that there is an opportunity here for automakers who can get folks to trade in their gas guzzling vehicles for cars that are so much more efficient that it makes financial sense.
Unfortunately for the domestics, its the Japanese automakers (as always) who can probably best exploit this trend.
Headline only, no link yet.
Can I get a zero-down Option ARM on a new truck if I'm planning on living in it?
dav
Yes....
no money down
Apache Tomcat/6.0.16 - Error report
It's a come tah Jesus moment:
he best car loan rates are out there if you search for them. Based on your credit past, you may find either a prime or sub prime auto lender is your best choice. The surest way to find the answer is to request free online loan quotes to narrow your choices.
The Differences Between Prime and Sub Prime Lenders
Prime and sub prime lenders differ in the types of loans they offer. Prime lenders offer A loans to those with credit scores of 650 or higher. Sub prime lenders provide loans to everyone else. Sometimes though, financing companies offer both types of financing.
Sub prime loans have higher rates and fees since the risk is higher for lenders. Reasonable lenders will only charge a couple of points higher for most types of loans.
Who Has The Best Rates?
Id like to find out who isbacking this stuff...yah know...wink wink!!
4822,
Took the Honda in for service and got a hard upsell on some additional servicing - just did the 30,000 mile service (2004) last go round - the deal is that the service center is the only cash flow these outfits are generating ATM...
"There isn't anything in the US to replace the automobile. Most Americans live in suburbs, not in central cities, and can't use public transport."
So true but with geological, political and oil exporter hoarding of scarcer oil resouces, we will do without.
A great tragedy is unfolding; far greater than an economic depression.
World War II did a great job of rescuing the automakers from the economic ravages of the great depression by tasking them with government funded tank and jeep production, and the like.
cancel Xmas for this year.......and possibly next.
But not for the top 1%....it's ALWAYS XMAS for them...
Ciao
MS
Small towns are great for reduced car dependency. I live in a 75,000-pop town and I've got about 45,000 miles on my 10-year-old car. I drive it to work, but I could also walk if I had to--and I do when the roads ice up.
Well I was born in a small town in Nebraska [20,000 people] and lived there until I was 16. I walked to elementary school because it was close enough but nobody bought groceries or laundry or cleaning, etc., etc., and walked home with them. Nor did I walk to High School that was a mile from where I lived. The places where cars can be done without are large cities with neighborhood groceries and other stuff and this is common in Europe but relatively rare in the US. New York perhaps, but even there many would want groceries delivered, by taxi if necessary.
SWEET!!!
SPRINGFIELD, Mo. The Freedom Financial Group, a subprime auto finance company that primarily purchases contracts via independent dealers, recently announced it has signed a $15 million, two-year, revolving credit facility with ReMark Capital Group, which is an affiliate of the Goldman Sachs Group.
According to officials, the facility is secured by auto receivables originated by Freedom Financial.
Basically, Freedom Financial specializes in the acquisition, collection and servicing of subprime auto loans that are purchased primarily from independent dealers.
"We serve as an alternative credit source of financing for dealers who sell vehicles to customers who have past credit problems or might not be able to secure financing from traditional sources," Fenstermaker indicated.
This will be Paulsons next job!!!!
Maybe Chrysler will save the day ...
Heh. With 4 of the worst 11 2008 models, as judged by Consumers Reports, Chrysler has more than financial troubles to worry about.
11 worst cars - Consumer Reports - Jeep Wrangler Unlimited (1) - CNNMoney.com
As far as John Stark's comment about small-town living: I agree, if you live and work in the same medium-sized towns, cars are not vital. We have two, but could get by with one. I can bike to work if I choose, she can bus to work (practically door to door) if she chooses. The market's a mile away
At least ONE car is vital. If you mean you can do without two, three or four or a new one every three years, etc., I agree. But a household needs at least ONE car even in small towns.
Hey isn't Charlie Gasparino a little late with his ABK rumor today (or am I early)?
Right - Most households need a car - but if you live close to work and the grocery store, and live in a decent neighborhood where you can find friends and recreation nearby, you only need to put a few thousand miles a year on that car. And in that case, if you take good care of your car, it will last 20 years or more.
For the consumer report (car #7 Yaris)check out this quote:
"It actually ranks at the top of the list in both reliability and low cost of ownership, but those factors are not included in Consumer Reports' basic vehicle score."
Not a very useful report.
Yah, very good bet here on subprime auto loans; those guys at Goldman are so friggn smart!!!
n its portfolio acquisition business, ReMark purchases automotive and consumer loan portfolios across a wide credit spectrum. ReMark will purchase portfolios on both a re-occurring basis with sellers seeking a relationship driven, reliable source of periodic liquidity, as well as on a one-off transactional basis, often associated with a specific liquidity or credit event. ReMark generally purchases loan pools on a servicing released basis, but may consider acquisitions with the loan servicing retained for certain sellers.
ReMarks revolving line of credit program provides efficient and reliable receivables based financing to qualified direct and indirect loan originators, allowing such companies the ability to aggregate and grow their receivables portfolio.
ReMark has become an industry leader and a nationally recognized participant in the auto and consumer finance marketplace. Through the extensive portfolio acquisition, structured finance, and consumer credit experience of its management team, and as an affiliate of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., ReMark is well prepared to meet the needs of finance companies and financial institutions throughout the United States.
"upon further review of the affected area and it's designation as a 'distressed area' our lending department (that never seems to answer the phone) has determined that your HELOC (which was shut off a few weeks ago) has now been re-activated for the entire amount".
Of course there is nothing that states any changes to the actual agreement (which I'm sure there has been quite a few changes to the language)
Apparently enough people threatened to cancel them altogether (like me-thus not paying the fee to have it)) or risk having a non-accessible credit line still attached to your score.
Stay Tuned......
Ciao
MS
Energy,
Work with car dealers everyday. They are buying our software to manage appointment, skill, shop hours capacity like crazy. Service delivers more profit than selling vehicles. Good dealerships have good service department. Sales sells first vehicle, service sells next 3!
My dealer clients have been crying recession since November. 20000 dealers x 78 employee average. They are cutting costs across board. Auto ties into many advertising companies-Google etc forecasts.
Industries Hurting barometer..
Real Estate-on the floor hurting
Mortgage-Near hell kind of hurting
Autos-Lots of hurt, more to come
Construction-Beavers are busier kind of hurt
Advertising-scaling back-more to come hurt
Banking-World of hurt
Blogging is up though...
What industry is doing well. Law? Farming?
After the first gas crisis in the 1970s, almost every family I new ended up buying a car that got great gas milage. As I recall, a diesel VW Rabbit got around 40 MPG.
Today everyone just complains about high gas prices. Alternatives to owning two big gas guzzlers exist.
I would hate to walk in to the sales showroom at a car dealership lateley. It must seem like the yearly bull shark mating frenzy in Tampa Bay.
Dang 70s show.
Stagflation big time.
Welcome to 1973.
Eight more friggin years of this stuff if it takes as long as last time.
Eight years.
Whocoodanode?
Someday this war's gonna end...
crispy&cole writes:
"Chyrsler down 14%..."
Another 'winner' for the Cerberus portfolio. Can they do anything right?
Econ- dont walk in..
Go to the website first and you'll get a better deal. Guaranteed! Also make sure it's last week of the month and Tue/wed/thurs. night if possible.
Try to work three of same make dealerships.
Internet has to hold less gross on deal.
Hi there, this is Hank Paulson, with Paulson Chevrolet. Underwater on your house? Don't walk away! Driiiiive away in the style and comfort of a new Chevy Tahoe!
.
3:25 pm stocks only go up. PPT to the rescue!
Re: Paulson Chevrolet
I see more of a Paulson RV Dealership?
"At least ONE car is vital. If you mean you can do without two, three or four or a new one every three years, etc., I agree. But a household needs at least ONE car even in small towns."
I made the post you're replying to and yes, it'd be darned hard not to have one car. On the other hand -- this being a college town that experiments with "green" business -- cars are available to rent by the hour from Zipcar. They're stationed around town in dedicated parking places.
It wouldn't work in emergencies, but it's a start. Not cheap, either, but I've seen a full load of college students riding around in one; if they're splitting the cost, it's actually cheap.
People need to understand that transit "only" costs 4x as much and "only" takes 2x as long to perform basic passenger transport functions is because transit cherrypicks to only serve 7% of that particular market niche.
If you think autos are expensive and congestion wastes time just wait until you are forced onto transit.
On the subjects of cars and lending, I read an article in today's fish wrap about car title lending. I had not heard of this before but this is the worst scam I think I have ever seen. Worse than payday loans.
Basically people give their car title and a set of keys to the lender for a one month loan (can be rolled over and over as required) which ,according to the article, can have triple digit annualized interest rates. Miss a payment and lose your car.
In an honest world these loans would not be legal but the article showed the huge political contributions the lenders make to stay in business.
I don't think this scam is legal in NC (payday loans are not). How about in your areas??
Jim
Footnoted.org had a good wrap up of WaMu / CFC / IMB ten-k's....
Subprime Friday… | footnoted.org
Interesting stuff....
And frankly -- college town again -- I'm seeing a heckuva lot more motor scooters around here than a couple of years ago, especially the Hondas. E-bikes, too.
If you're an entrepreneur in a climate that's not harsh, a scooter dealership isn't the worst idea. It's not all kids riding them, either.
OT Of course
"2:55 Chrysler Feb. U.S. sales fall 14% to 150,093 vehicles"
More good news to rally on!
Rob Dawg, by the time I am forced onto public transit, I anticipate all I will have is time.
Old folks don't tend to drive fast cars, why?
Cause all roads still lead to that final destination, and they have learned not to hurry to that one!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Italian car sales are down 4% in February after 7.3% in January. Similar vibe starting to emerge as well about why do we bother buying new cars. (http://www.anfia.it)
Also Porsche North American sales are down 11% in February after a 14% drop in January. Maybe Santa found out they hadn't been such good kiddies after all.
NC Jim ,
I need to go find a link, but there is a business of renting securities from mutual funds, trusts, etc........nice huh! This is like renting the balance sheet or more like The Fed lending scam like TAF, where you dump something toxis and park it, while you report a different booked reality and then write off the transaction before you bring back the toxic waste, etc...
I don't think this scam is legal in NC (payday loans are not). How about in your areas??
Both (title loans and payday loans) are alive and well, here in Idaho....
And judges here can change the law simply by "judicial confirmation."
Fourth District Judge Thomas F. Neville has given the city of McCall a way out of a dilemma that threatened to shut down the citys ability to offer local services.
Neville late Friday granted the citys request for judicial confirmation, which will allow the city to get around state law that prohibits Idaho municipal governments from incurring long-term debt without a vote of the people.
404 Page Not Found | Idaho Statesman
and sitting in your private box with your hands on the steering wheel is O! so much more productive then sitting in a communal box doing other things. I get a fair bit of multi-tasking done during my wasted time on public transit. Granted, you do have to relax a bit and adapt to schedules (gasp!) and routes (gasp!) that are not your own (GASP!) but I'm clearly odd and can manage this. Odd how there aren't single perfect solutions for all people.
Probably the appropriate time for a repost of veggie oil and diesels run by veggie oils.
below a cut and paste links on Veggie oil/diesel cars etc.
I keep track of alternative technologies / env conscious stuff.
Many find the link below interesting.
Plant a few of these jatropha as a hedge.
another wsj article
You should have a look at these type of alternative stuff.
Lister engines run on SVO (straight veggie oil). i.e electricity generation
Lister engines
You could also change your diesel car to run on SVO (straight veggi oil).
(search for "SVO diesel" and you will come up with many leads
i.e use the jatropha oil to run your car.
svo cars
"There isn't anything in the US to replace the automobile"
Buses, trains, bikes, walking...
Horses?
Car is only a 20th century device. There won't be petroleum in 22nd century. It is just a 2 century (max) blip.
The Big Picture blog had an entry a few days ago about Detroit house prices reaching 0$. Isn't it time to finally just let car manufacturers fold? I mean, the area is already completely devastated, so what is there to worry about? We can only keep them artificially alive for so long...
Perhaps car dealerships should open on Sundays to give people who actually work for a living more time to purchase an automobile?
Nah, thats craaaaaaaaazy talk.
LENDING OF PORTFOLIO SECURITIES. Consistent with applicable regulatory requirements, the Fund may lend its portfolio securities to brokers, dealers and other financial institutions, provided that such loans are callable at any time by the Fund (subject to certain notice provisions described in the Statement of Additional Information), and are at all times secured by cash or money market instruments, which are maintained in a segregated account pursuant to applicable regulations and that are equal to at least the market value, determined daily, of the loaned securities. As with any extensions of credit, there are risks of delay in recovery and in some cases even loss of rights in the collateral should the borrower of the securities fail financially.
If you think autos are expensive and congestion wastes time just wait until you are forced onto transit
I lived in Tokyo 1992-2000 and it was the f'in bees knees, transit-wise. Transit was cheap enough to not be a budget item, just $3-$10/day depending on how many places you went.
'course, I was in my 20s and didn't have 2.5 kids. But the mamas with the 2 child seats on their shopping bikes were all "MIxx"s.
When you think about it, we all should be getting an hour of exercise a day to stay in shape. In Tokyo, people get that in the course of their daily life, and don't have to go to the "gym" or buy a stupid treadmill to walk in place.
In Tokyo, you only get from the grocery store what you can carry home.
Perhaps car dealerships should open on Sundays to give people who actually work for a living more time to purchase an automobile?
many are, in southern california. i'm seeing service depts. also open on Sundays in places.
A little bit 'o salt on those wounds?
NEW YORK, March 3 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Monday cut its ratings on Thornburg Mortgage Inc to "selective default," citing the company's announcement that it is in default with a counterparty on a reverse repurchase agreement.
Thornburg Mortgage (TMA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday it has failed to meet a surge in margin calls, raising concern the jumbo mortgage lender might file for bankruptcy. S&P lowered its rating from "B-minus," the sixth-highest junk rating. (Reporting by Dena Aubin; Editing by Dan Grebler)
"People need to understand that transit "only" costs 4x as much and "only" takes 2x as long to perform basic passenger transport functions is because transit cherrypicks to only serve 7% of that particular market niche.
If you think autos are expensive and congestion wastes time just wait until you are forced onto transit."
All you are saying is that transit won't work well for the kind of living arrangement we have now.
Well no shit, sherlok.
Hint: our living arrangements will have to change.
$100 Detroit "dwellings"
http://www.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?ctid=2959&typ=7
There won't be petroleum in 22nd century. It is just a 2 century (max) blip
I purchased my Miata in 2000 with the express intention of converting it to electric ca. 2010 or so. Battery technology is progressing nicely and I think it will make an excellent towncar with 30-50mi range and daily operating costs in the pennies (net capital investment in battery and PV).
Another interesting article
The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed - Telegraph
"When you think about it, we all should be getting an hour of exercise a day to stay in shape. In Tokyo, people get that in the course of their daily life, and don't have to go to the "gym" or buy a stupid treadmill to walk in place.
In Tokyo, you only get from the grocery store what you can carry home.
BUT THEY DON'T HAVE LAWNS!
How can you not have a "big yard for the kids"? They will grow up to be cereal killahs!
On the HOPE NOW news, does anyone know if telling the borrower to do a short sale is considered a loan mod or is it considered a repayment plan?
our living arrangements will have to change.
I'm with the Dawg on this one. I use to ride the T in Boston. I went less than 6 miles each day. It took 1:15 in the morning and 1:30 in the evening. And that was a pretty direct path....
I was in a major city and the start and end destination were on the mass transit line... It was still hella slow....
Weighing Alternative Policies for Tackling the Mortgage Mess - Brookings Institution
A fairly interesting paper from the Brookings Institute analyzing various proposals to help fix the mortgage crisis.
Just thought I'd share, I know it has nothing to do with the auto sales article but it is relevant to the general site and this is the most recent post.
Yields on two-year US Treasuries plummeted to 1.63pc on Friday in a flight to safety, foretelling financial winter.
(from bork's link)
When this becomes a common phrase in the media we're all f@#%.....
At least Greenspan got his Fall....
FWIW Kondratiev wave - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I'm with the Dawg on this one. I use to ride the T in Boston. I went less than 6 miles each day. It took 1:15 in the morning and 1:30 in the evening. And that was a pretty direct path....
you're not really grasping this new living arrangments thing, are you?
p.s. 8 miles takes me 40 minutes on the El which is a decrepit piece of shit. cherry picking and all.
OT - Car pool lanes: seem only useful 5% or less of the time, and when they are most useful, they are most dangerous because of the speed difference between the high occupancy lane and the congested lanes. It can be a major undertaking to go from the car pool lane to the off ramp through three or more lanes of stopped traffic.
I forget the stat but something like 60% of highway accidents in LA occur where it allows people to enter the HOV lanes. As you mentioned it is always a person trying to go from 0 to 75 before the guy behind him get to him. If you're ever there check the skid marks at these locations. The roads are pratically black at these locations....
I guess I don't understand why anyone would ever buy a new vehicle, for reasons other than conspicuous consumption.
My last 4 cars, it's been worth $5 - 8K to shop (carefully) for used, lease turn-ins, repos, etc.
Let the first guy take the bulk of that depreciation hit.
You can do HOV lanes well. On I-394 coming into downtown Minneapolis, they have their own exit lanes.
I guess I don't understand why anyone would ever buy a new vehicle, for reasons other than conspicuous consumption.
The warranty.
That's it, HOPE NOW For Cars!!!
HOPE for cars, HOPE for America and HOPE for oil, HOPE for a new President, HOPE for someone other than those who are running....
NCJim, Title loans are alive and well in Texas. Saw my first late night title loan commercial last December. It was, of course, sandwiched in between the personal injury laywer adverts.
Zack, I bought my truck new cause the new vehicle premium was minimal. Also, I like to be the one to break in the vehicles that I plan to own till they drop dead. We bought my wife's minivan cause the new car premiums were too high. Premiums were high enough to justify the aftermarket warranty, which has been used more than it should.
Best,
I guess I don't understand why anyone would ever buy a new vehicle, for reasons other than conspicuous consumption.
NEW CAR SMELL
In Tokyo, you only get from the grocery store what you can carry home.
Troy
ROTFLMAO
Do you know how thin my coworkers would be if they could only consume what they could carry? lol.
Actually, for years, as a kid, after school one of my chores was to bike ~ 2 miles to a grocery store and buy whatever the family needed. Thankfully it was downhill from the store to the house after the first half mile. The number of times I almost crashed because of the weight of food...
As to cars, I always buy new in a recession.
If you keep your cars a long time, its worth it. We just bought a new Honda for $6k under list ($3k under invoie). 
'Just' as in December...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
should read "We bought my wife's minivan used cause"
Warranty wouldn't really justify paying the full retail price.
Case in point... I bought her a Mustang with 6K miles through the credit union. It was a lease return.
The remainder of the 3/30 was good, then I bought an aftermarket warranty through the credit union for $300 that covered the power train. The terms of the warranty were such that, if you don't use it, you can get a refund on it at the end of the loan's life.
re the small town bit... A couple of assumptions that you may be making should be noted.
First, sidewalks. I was astounded when I moved to Georgia from Colorado at the absence of sidewalks. Oh, they are present in Atlanta and its surroundings. But all those small towns? snicker. Only in front of the businesses in main street, folks. I can get to the grocery store only by spending most of the distance walking across lawns or in the street.
Speaking of the grocery store - 1.5 miles each way to the closest. Well, no, not the closest. There is one 3/4 mile away that is indeed a mom-and-pop. Quality of goods is no better than what I get at the big box, and I have almost double the grocery bill. Noting, of course, that I can't buy many things there (like meat) which are available at the big box.
I've spent a large portion of my life in small towns, and I have no romanticism about them. They offer fewer services. They tend to charge higher prices, while at the same time offering lower wages. And as a rule they are insular - your presence is an irritant. There are exceptions, but they tend to be places with high mobility of at least part of the population (college towns for example).
I really, really wish for mass transit where I live. It's just not going to happen in the foreseeable future.
I was in a major city and the start and end destination were on the mass transit line... It was still hella slow....
all I can say that after 100 years of intensive capital investment a mass transit system can be pretty good . . . mass transit systems here in the states are uniformly half-assed USPS-quality affairs.
zack - new models. For example, Audi S5. If I want one now, buying one used is more expensive than a new order. granted, this doesnt last long, and in a year, car will be less than retail. However, also with this type of car, you never know how the car has been treated, and judging from how people are abusing this on the test ride, and the modding that is going on after sale, Im pretty sure many are getting torched.
But in general, for most cars, totally agree with you.
" guess I don't understand why anyone would ever buy a new vehicle, for reasons other than conspicuous consumption."
Some folks (who aren't home mechanics or don't know any) are put in the position of having to pay $350/month for a new car, on warranty, or $350/month for repairs on an aging one. It's less strain to own a new car sometimes.
"half-assed USPS-quality affairs."
Very apt!
I really, really wish for mass transit where I live. It's just not going to happen in the foreseeable future.
It's not an either/or thing. I used to live in an outer suburb of a small city in the Netherlands. The houses were smaller than you'd find here, but we had yards and big box stores and freeways and all the usual industrialized 21st century stuff. I didn't have a car, but most of my neighbors did -- they just didn't use them every day. Things were set up so we could get to work and school, basic shopping, recreation, etc. by bus or bike. And on weekends, people who had cars could drive them to discount grocery stores for big shopping trips, or to the home center, or to the beach, or off on a camping trip, or whatever. Because they had choices, they actually had more freedom (transportation-wise) than we have in the US.
Where I live now isn't all that different. I have to drive to work (it is SoCal, after all), but for a lot of daily stuff I can get where I need to go by foot, bike, or bus.
"Some folks (who aren't home mechanics or don't know any) are put in the position of having to pay $350/month for a new car, on warranty, or $350/month for repairs on an aging one"
Dude, what kind of cars are you driving?!?!
My 10-year old stick shift Toyota Camry has been doing its thing on nothing more than regular unleaded gas, oil changes and tire rotations. Every single thing in the car, from the A/C to the cruise control, works like I just drove the thing off the lot. 30 MPG in mixed driving.
Fair Disclosure: I bought the car used, previous owner had already replaced the timing belt. Even then, we're not talking 4 grand.
I'm convinced that for every good car story, there's a bad car story, for every good mechanic, there's a bad mechanic. In the end, it's no better than a zero sum game, plus the small benefit of having many stories to tell around the campfire in 20 years time.
Every morning I say prayers over my three vehicles. It seems to help.
Update: Ooops, Guess not (Chrysler saving the day). From MarketWatch:
Chrysler Feb. U.S. sales fall 14% to 150,093 vehicles
What about Studebaker? Have they weighed in yet?
Reasons to buy new car:
Wifey. Sorry, she pretty much demanded it. Fear drives her decision, 100k warranty, and very low probability of breakdown. $10k premium to own new, doesn't even enter mind. It's just a given.
Me? The ultimate are 8-9 year old VW or Audi (if the leather interior is intact) Best place: near College campuses. Car goes to crap because of single point failure on something cheap, and from lack of any semblance of maintenance. Have to be weary of the rust dogs, or burnt out engines.
Fewlesh
John Stark I grew up in Wash.DC.Born in 1941 at 17th and Irving streets. We could walk to the DGS grocery as well as all types of stores and the Tivoli theatre.We took the street car down town for high end shopping.Familys had on average one car.
I have a hard time believing that Chrysler sold 150,000 cars last month at all. That HAS to include sales to the "rental yards."
I rented a Dodge Caliber from Enterprise for a day recently, and was never so happy to turn a car back in. Slow, noisy, an irritating CVT transmission, slippery interior finish, lame seats.
I was at the local VW dealer two weekends ago buying parts for some maintenance work. Crotchety old man over here still inisits that if it has a gas gauge instead of a reserve tank it's a NEW beetle. Actually the car that reminds me of the classic beetle is the Toyota Echo. Cheap, quirky styling, and a seating position like a dining room chair. The New Beetle has a bizarly gunormous dash in an attempt to push the windhshield far out in front and give it the proportions of a rear engine vehicle.
Reminds me of a quote by former Oakland Athletics announcer Bill King. "No sense in paying more than $250 for a car."
"I guess I don't understand why anyone would ever buy a new vehicle, for reasons other than conspicuous consumption. "
The warranty, not having to worry for 100K miles, not knowing @$@ about cars so not being able to/not worrying about outsmarting some dealer. And most of all, not having to buy another car for 12-15 years, because I buy quality and run them until they don't run no more.
borkafatty-
Regarding the Telegraph article you posted, you know it's bad when the Federal Reserve Chairman has to resort to actions referred to as Chapter 13, I mean Section 13, that is only limited to times of "exigent circumstances".
Exigent circumstances. I kinda knew what it meant but had to look it up anyway.
A number of you have critiqued my post on reduced car dependency and I don't disagree with too many of those critiques. In no particular order:
It's likely that the future is going to feel more oppressive to many or most of us than the present. I think our standard of living is going to decline, and personal transportation is going to be one very big part of that. Hope I'm wrong.
"Some folks (who aren't home mechanics or don't know any) are put in the position of having to pay $350/month for a new car, on warranty, or $350/month for repairs on an aging one. It's less strain to own a new car sometimes."
You must have had some bad luck buying used cars. My last truck was a 1973 Ford that cost $500, spent another $500 on new tires, oil changes, $350 on brakes, and I've put 30,000 miles on it. happened upon a 1990 Chevy PU (I need a full size truck or I'd be in a Camry), paid $1,400 and it has only 20,000 miles on a new engine and drive train. I expect to get 100,000 more out of it. I've had a few lemons over the years, but on balance I've saved silly money over buying new. If I find a bargain I buy it and keep it as a backup, but I've yet to get stranded on the road.
3. Existing transit systems often suck. But that's because they are poorly funded...
What part of tens of billions annually is translated as poorly funded?
... Making them better will be very expensive, and there's a chance (a very good chance) we won't have the national wealth we will need to do the job in a satisfactory way.
Much more than three quarters of all Los Angeles Metropolitan Transportation money goes to the 2.5% of passenger travel by transit. Trust me when I tell you there isn't enough money in the US I mean in the entire US to adequately substitute transit in any one major metro to make a difference.
If we had to build the interstate highway system today, could we? Heck, we can't even keep interstate highway bridges from falling into the Mississippi.
Easy, just give up the big urban subsidies that drain national vitality. Let's start with baby steps. Double transit fares everywhere immediately. Keep in mind that means still no one will be paying anywhere close to the costs their trip incurs. See? It isn't money, just priorities.
What part of tens of billions annually is translated as poorly funded?
Tens of billions? What did the Interstate system or the air travel system cost in 2008 dollars? And I don't just mean the cement: Count the airlines, and the car buyers, etc.
We once did invest large sums (public and private) in mass transit: trains, trolleys etc. Then we stopped, wrote off that investment, and switched to streets, highways etc.
As you say: It isn't money, just priorities.
Doubling transit fares will mean fewer riders. Cost per rider then goes up. More riders brings cost per rider (and air pollution per rider) down.
But it does make me angry when people act as though doing all this will be fun or simple, or that we will do it out of anything other than necessity, because we can no longer afford to fill our personal tanks.
My fear is that we no longer have the capital we would need to invest in a really good transit system. So if the peak oil people are only partly right, we'll get to work by packing ourselves onto standing-room-only buses every day, like they do in Mexico City. Hope I'm wrong.
RD: What part of tens of billions annually is translated as poorly funded?
Tens of billions? What did the Interstate system or the air travel system cost in 2008 dollars? And I don't just mean the cement: Count the airlines, and the car buyers, etc.
The IHS was self funding.
We once did invest large sums (public and private) in mass transit: trains, trolleys etc.
Where do these myths start? The vaunted LA Trolleys were developer come ons to sell real estate.
Then we stopped, wrote off that investment, and switched to streets, highways etc.
Haven't you heard the truth behind NCL? They tried to save transit all over the nation and got blamed for killing it instead.
As you say: It isn't money, just priorities.
The problem is that transit advocates are interested in exclusively using OPM. AS you note in the next segment:
Doubling transit fares will mean fewer riders. Cost per rider then goes up. More riders brings cost per rider (and air pollution per rider) down.
Exactly. Transit is so unloved even people who pretend to like it need a porkchop tied to the deal before they pretend to like it.
Scooby:
Amen on used Camrys.
They're no match for anyone's 3-series Beemer. But what they do better is get from here to there with penny-pinching economy, and identical status in the eyes of the emissions-testing, parking-ticketing law. And sometimes, anonymity can be an advantage in a car. Think about it (giggle)!
In today's terms, our 2000 Camry reminds me of grandma's equivalent: a 1970 Chevelle Malibu, Robin's-egg blue. Its fit, finish and design were superior to the Camry and IMO, equal to today's BMWs and Acuras. And what a marvel of low-buck good taste!
The 307 V8 and Turbo Hydra-Matic transmission exuded confidence: I'd take a mint example over a late-model Benz. Alas, times change, and a brand-new equivalent is unavailable at any price.
Tens of billions? What did the Interstate system or the air travel system cost in 2008 dollars? And I don't just mean the cement: Count the airlines, and the car buyers, etc.
The IHS was self funding.
How did that work exactly? If it WAS self-funding, it isn't any more. Last time I checked, I was funding the IHS and the rest of the road/street system several dollars a pop on every fillup.
Also, I'm arguing that another big part of my cost here is the cost of my car: the price of admission to the IHS and the rest of the road and street systems that my gas taxes are paying for. We all accept this system that costs us all many, many times the mass transit subsidies that anger some people so much. But this system may be literally and figuratively running out of gas.
Transit is so unloved even people who pretend to like it need a porkchop tied to the deal before they pretend to like it.
Rob Dawg
You bet it's unloved. We love our cars and we hate the bus. My argument doesn't have anything to do with that. I'm just saying we MAY be forced to abandon our "love affair with the automobile." Not by bureaucrats, but by economics. (BTW--if we really love cars so much, why do we enjoy movie scenes where cars get crashed, blown up etc.? Just wondering.)
For all this discussion about automobiles there is almost no discussion of what a huge hit they create to family budgets. Do the math; it a is very, very expensive method of moving around. And that is without quantifying the indirect costs.
The IHS was self funding.
How did that work exactly? If it WAS self-funding, it isn't any more. Last time I checked, I was funding the IHS and the rest of the road/street system several dollars a pop on every fillup.
If you don't know something the correct form is to ask, not tell and hope to be corrected.
Highway Revenue Act of 1956
Currently due to years of funding diversion there is accumulating a 1/4th to possibly 1/2 cent per vehicle mile difference twixt spending and necessity.
Also, I'm arguing that another big part of my cost here is the cost of my car: the price of admission to the IHS and the rest of the road and street systems that my gas taxes are paying for.
Yeah and buses are pulled by invisible ponies? You seem to think you deserve those for free.
We all accept this system that costs us all many, many times the mass transit subsidies that anger some people so much.
Stop this now. It is worse than a lie, it is propaganda. The 'costs us all' is selective accounting.
RD: Transit is so unloved even people who pretend to like it need a porkchop tied to the deal before they pretend to like it.
You bet it's unloved. We love our cars and we hate the bus. My argument doesn't have anything to do with that. I'm just saying we MAY be forced to abandon our "love affair with the automobile." Not by bureaucrats, but by economics.
I'll type slowly. No, transit is MORE expensive and uses no less energy. There, now we are clear. There are reasons for transit but speed, efficiency and cost are not three of them.
For all this discussion about automobiles there is almost no discussion of what a huge hit they create to family budgets. Do the math; it a is very, very expensive method of moving around. And that is without quantifying the indirect costs.
Automobility near always generates more income for families than it costs. People don't own cars to lose money in the sense you are suggesting. It's kind of insulting to constantly hear that the vast supermajority of families are ignorant of this fact. As to externalities, make sure you count the positives as well.
John Stark writes:
John, your arguing with Robert Cote, a disciple of the Wendal Cox school of Transportation planning. Cote, like Cox believes every transportation related problem in this country can be solved with more roads and highways. Peak Oil and Climate Change will change all that. The one thing we need to do NOW is expand and improve our mass transit and passenger rail systems. While it's true the car will never go away, the next 40 years will see more reliance of public transit as people start to move closer to the cities. The cheap plentiful oil that made our far flung 'burb's possible is gone. Change is coming whether Cox and Cote like it or now.
Totally OT, but somebody here mentioned an ETF based on grains/corn/agricultural. Given an election year, seems to me like the corn-based ethanol madness will continue for another 6mos or more. Anybody know the name of that elusive ETF?
I'll type slowly. No, transit is MORE expensive and uses no less energy. There, now we are clear. There are reasons for transit but speed, efficiency and cost are not three of them.
Rob Dawg
Hey Dawg, I agree with you. What you say here is not your or my opinion--It's fact. I get that. When you look at cost per passenger mile, transit is not pretty. IN many places it would be cheaper to give the riders cab fare. Of course, the rest of the public does get some benefit from the transit system, if it enables the riders to get to jobs, keeps a few more cars off the freeway etc. But no, it probably isn't cost effective in pure economic terms outside urban cores.
YES, Transit gets a public subsidy, (like police, fire, schools, parks and museums) whereas the highways etc are paid for by those of us who use them. I get that too.
I'm talking about the future--what do we do when economics force more people out of their cars? Should we be investing more money in alternatives NOW? Or do we wait until we have a very serious problem that will take years to solve?
Years ago, transit systems were profitable, privately owned companies. Buses, trains etc. Later, when commuters were given a choice of bus or personal car, they got the car, once that car became within their reach financially. (This was a gradual process that didn't really accelerate until after WWII. None of my grandparents ever drove a car because they could never afford one).
Fast forward a year, 10 years, a generation...at some point, we likely will get back to a situation in which lots of people won't be able to afford the car and the fuel. That's what I'm thinking about. What do we do then? I'm not arguing that life will be "better" because it probably won't.
I'm arguing that the way we live now is not the only possible future. That's not a terribly daring statement.
"Easy, just give up the big urban subsidies that drain national vitality.
"
This argument is penny wise and pound foolish. Urban areas pay far more in taxes than they receive in total govt. payouts.
Do urban transport systems pay for themselves? Of course not. But urban areas create wealth, and lots of it. Increased congestion would certainly create externalities such as increased congestion, which would reduce wealth creation.
Fast forward a year, 10 years, a generation...at some point, we likely will get back to a situation in which lots of people won't be able to afford the car and the fuel. That's what I'm thinking about. What do we do then?
Transit advocates have been predicting a transit renaissance since transit peaked in the late teens. Every possible change in the built environment and/or general economy and/or transportation technology won't benefit transit.
Time to move on.
N.B. notice how first time poster "spatch" has nothing to contribute except guilt by association and "don't listen to Rob Dawg". You also might note the pathetic use of real names from behind the cloak of anonymity. That's because some people have such poor self images and esteem and low intelligence that they are afraid of being revealed.
Rail destrots everything else in person-miles/gallon at typical occupancies:
Typical efficiency in urban service
Approximate, assumes 1.5 per road vehicle, 1 per motorcycle, see full table for details.
Mode \tPassenger-miles per gallon
Rail \t 600
Trolleybus \t 290
Diesel bus \t 78
Scooter/light motorcycle \t 75
Smart fortwo cdi \t 74
Toyota Prius \t 72
Ford Explorer \t 21
buses suck, but we know that.
www.strickland.ca - www.strickland.ca
isamu,
The TEDB staff have seen those assertions before and rejected them. Sorry.
BTW, my Ford Explorer seats 8 not 5 in maximum service.
lost in space at 03.03.08 on 9:19 pm wrote:
somebody here mentioned an ETF based on grains/corn/agricultural... Anybody know the name of that elusive ETF?
There's at least 6 agriculture ETFs to choose from:
Which of the 6 Agriculture ETFs is Best? -- Seeking Alpha
My weekend home is in a small town.
Need a gas guzzler to get there but I Thought I what about getting a vehicle for running around town for errands. Maybe sort of an enclosed scooter with 3 or four wheels for stability. Maybe $5K
And of course road legal.
Of course the internet was full of such....but not for sale in the USofA.
Zilch nada
TATA were art thou??
You city slickers that think 20-75K = small town, heh. In my part of the world, that is two counties worth of population.
I didn't mean to hack you off, Dawg. I agree with a lot of what you're saying. I'm not predicting a transit renaissance, I'm predicting the forced decline of the luxurious automotive lifestyle that I enjoy as much as anybody. My favorite pastime is a long road trip!
When my grandparents were young adults, they rode streetcars. If they had been rich they would have bought cars. My dad bought a car because he could. The transit systems of 50 years ago are gone--the result of public policy choices and private choices. So today it's hard for a sane person to "choose" transit because that choice is either completely absent or barely fuctional, at great inconvenience.
I'm just saying--at some point the future could look like the world my grandparents knew. Or worse.
Rob, go and live in a place like Tokyo for a year or so. And then come back and lecture us about how transit is "so much more expensive than cars." Expensive according to what?!
Tokyo wouldn't EXIST in the economic shape it is today were it not for the transit system! Over 3 million people pass through Shinjuku station daily. And that's just one station. There are 6 million people riding the subways daily.
You going to try to get that number of people moving around Tokyo in cars for commuting every day? Given that a lot of people coming in by rail (which goes 30-50 mph on the tracks) come from 1-2 hours outside Tokyo. How long do you think it would take going by car? (I have direct experience of the difference: train from Tsuchiura to Ueno took 1 hour, 40 minutes if I used the express. Bus? 3 hours if I was lucky....)
Have you EVER seen what is possible with transit? Yah, I thought so....
This is not a problem, comrades.
We will need to simply not count auto sales in future calculations of growth and earnings; same as we no longer consider housing sales, nor do we consider rising prices a form of inflation, etc.
Nothing can interrupt our prosperity, and the Amerikan way of life must continue at all cost. Reality will not be allowed to get in the way.
"Maybe Chrysler will save the day". LOL and more LOL.