1.2M good paying jobs at that.

Cheers,

You don't need many construction workers to slap together a dozen cookie-cutter KHOV shacks, hence, you don't need to lay many of them off when business slows.

Charts- Thanks for hat tip
Heading to Hawaii tomorrow. Will head to bank first..

CHARTS- thanks!

There's always this:

Australia May Recruit U.S. Builders to its Beaches, Wineries

Australia May Recruit U.S. Builders to its Beaches, Wineries - Bloomberg.com

Hell, I might have to dust of me tools and head down under mate.

Cheers,

Well, well, well. It does not look so good any more. I need to do some more research this weekend but my optimistic scenario is endangered here.

So far I thought Jan. 22 were the lows in the equity markets and we would avoid even one negative GDP growth quarter. I can probably say more over the weekend.

O-Joe

There is one more thing I have learned recently~ That is how the trade imbalances will pan out. Clearly, the US$ will devalue for so long until local manufacturing and services are competitive again. It will be a gradual process; not pain-free but not causing a sudden fall either.

I still think we'll see a ~two year counter trend with lower gold and higher $, but from the second half of 2010 watch out below.

O-Joe

Yukoner,

Bah...It hits 120F in the San Fernando Valley.

Walk in the park mate.

Cheers,

r_c,

Did anyone tell wheat fungus there was a new thread?

Please say no.

Cheers,

Misean,
Okay, I'm a northern boy and a heat wimp. Plus 30 (85 of your degrees?) is too damm hot to work in! And when, many years ago I worked temporarily and illeagally in Oz building fences (to help fund a trip) the 35 to 40 degree temps just about killed me.

30 below zero is pushing it in the other direction, mostly because the nails you hold in your mouth tend to freeze in place and peeling off the skin of the inner lip is really no fun at all.

"MBIA spokesman Willard Hill said Fitch's rating practices were "not at all" a factor in the withdrawal request. Armonk, New York-based MBIA did ask Fitch to continue rating more than $1.1 billion of unsecured debt issued by the company."

yeah and the letter that attacked Fitch the other day was just cause-

MBIA Asks Fitch to Withdraw Insurer Ratings
| Reuters

The failure of globalization, the failure of supply side economics.... both darlings of the failed conservative republican experiment.

How much more evidence does one need to see that the republicans sold out and sold US citizens down the river?

I thought the illegals were NOT captured in unemployment data. That was the reason used for why construction employment held up for so long. So how can it be now that the total job force is shrinking, illegals going home are used as the reason why?

OT question - I am still having problems keeping up with messages. When I pull up the Halocan screen - there is no place to click for a search feature - so I can find what I last wrote 1000 messages ago - or what anyone wrote to me - or to find what someone said about something. Is there an easy way to search through these threads?

I did happen on this question in a fast scroll:

"Robyn:

Reviewed the Zionsdirect site the other night.

Question for you. Didn't have time to call them in daytime and didn't see answer on site, but in what dollar

increments are these sold? $10K? More/less?

Looked at PA munis and reviewed what they had available. Think that healthcare related (think hospital) (dad-burned Golden Monkey!) would be better able to survive and not blow up a la other munis.

Thanks
homedad43"

Most munis are normally sold in increments of $5k - but there is a lot of secondary market stuff on Zionsdirect (which simply passes through everything found on BondDesk - a huge bond clearing center which is used by lots of brokerage firms - you can check its website to see what it is). So you can find everything from bonds where the minimum purchase is $1k - to bonds where the minimum purchase is an entire lot of $500k. The norm though is $5k give or take. When you look at the offerings - they will say something like 250(10) which means there's $250k for sale - with a minimum order of $10k.

I have never bought a health care/hospital issue. In fact - for 30 years - all I have ever bought is general obligation bonds - and some essential services revenue bonds. None has an underlying rating less than AA-. I don't buy hospitals - airports - industrial development bonds - etc.

There will always be a need for health care - but the finances of a lot of hospitals are precarious in light of medicare and medicaid cutbacks - and unreimbursed money spent to take care of people who don't have access to any form of medical payments. Perhaps there are some good hospitals out there - but - to find them - you have to be prepared to analyze the credit quality of a particular issuer - from the time you're thinking about buying it - to the day it's called or redeemed - without regard to insurance. I don't know about you - but I don't have enough time in the world to do that.

I assume you are looking at PA bonds because you live in PA - have an in-state tax exemption - and the tax rate there is horrendous (I used to live in Philadelphia - and that was doubly horrendous).

If so - two thoughts come to mind. First - I don't see a lot of great PA paper on the market (I don't have to worry about state taxes - so I look everywhere). It may be worth paying the state tax and buying better credits out of state.

Second - the Supreme Court of the United States heard arguments about the constitutionality of the in-state/out-of-state tax rules which apply to munis in lots of states a few months ago. It is possible - although considered unlikely - at least by the financial press - that such rules will be ruled unconstitutional. The Supreme Court usually rules on all pending cases before it ends its term (in June?) - so - if you haven't done anything yet - I'd sit and wait and see how the Supreme Court rules. Roby

Robyn:

To search within a Haloscan window, simply flick Ctrl-F or F3. Depending on your browser, a window or panel will pop up somewhere and you can search for "Robyn" to find your previous comments.

Martin Wolf reprint published today offers qualified optimism relative to Roubini:

gulfnews : US will stand firm even if it has to face the worst-case scenario

The "what's a Bagatelle?" quote:

"If the worst comes to the worst, the government can mount a bail-out similar to the one of the bankrupt savings and loan institutions in the 1980s. The maximum cost would be seven per cent of GDP. That would raise US public debt to 70 per cent to GDP and would cost the government a mere 0.2 per cent of GDP, in perpetuity. That is a fiscal bagatelle."

"MBIA spokesman Willard Hill said Fitch's models would require it to put too much capital to back its business of guaranteeing now-troubled structured finance debt, which MBIA intends to separate from its less risky business of insuring municipal bonds."

MBIA Dislikes Fitch's Rating Models - WSJ.com

For the S&P 500, Q4 07 earnings are particularly ugly.

With 98% of the S&P 500 having reported, Q4 earnings are down, year-over-year, 30% (continuing) to 60% (as reported).

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS 

Almost hilarious, the drop.

Undocumented, skilled labor.

"The U.S. is spending more than its income. People cannot afford their mortgage debts and are walking away from their houses," he added."

Why is he the only one that mentions this fact? All the bail out plans never quite understand this sticky problem!

One of the mysteries in 2007 was why BLS reported residential construction employment didn't decline as much as expected based on housing starts and completions.

What mystery? One word and one phrase answer it easily.

Word = ILLEGAL

Phrase = PAID OFF THE BOOKS AND UNDER THE TABLE

Fitch's response on Business Wire with copy of MBIA letter to Fitch:

News

From MBIA letter to Fitch URL link above, the Your Rates Suck quote:

"Finally, and in consideration of the above reasons, we can no longer justify the high cost of the Fitch Insurer Financial Strength rating. The fee proposal you gave us is three times the amount you charged in 2005 - a rate of growth well in excess of similar fees charged by the other major rating agencies. While we recognize the investment Fitch has made in its financial guarantors rating group in recent years, we have an obligation to continually evaluate our cost structure and control expense growth in an effort to maintain the highest level of profitability."

OT - Thanks Yeek - I probably should have asked that question a few months ago. But better late than never.

Nades - We spent about 10 days in Costa Rica about 20 years ago. It is certainly a beautiful country. And the local langoustines are delicious. I understand that petty crime is a problem now (it wasn't then).

What probably hasn't changed is that the roads - even somewhat major ones in terms of getting from here to there - are horrendous - and a lot of the drivers are crazy (blind passing in the mountains). We had planned to rent a car and drive to the west coast ourselves. When I took a look at the proposed Hertz rental car (a wreck) - and the rental contract (only about $10k in insurance - and your US policy doesn't cover you in CR) - we decided to hire a driver with a van (he was actually cheaper than the rental car). He managed to damage his car quite seriously on the trip from San Jose to the Pacific Coast when he hit a pothole - and wound up taking an unexpected vacation while his car was being repaired (he took his time off - and then drove us back to San Jose). Unless you are a very young person with not a lot of money - I'd hire a driver. And make sure his vehicle has seat belts! Even if you are a young person - if you're traveling with a bunch of friends - a driver may be the way to go (our driver's van could accommodate maybe 3 tourists - luggage - and a bunch of surfboards).

Don't know your travel plans - or your budget. We stayed at a place in Quepos (west coast) called La Mariposa. Was run then by a couple of gay guys from the US (and I mean that in a good sense - lovely decorating - excellent food). It's still there - and you might take a look at it. There are now luxury properties in the country which seem to cater to people who like to fish (my brother the fisherman is going there next month). So Mariposa probably seems kind of quaint compared to these newer places. Anyway - like I said - worth at least a web site visit.

We took the train from San Jose to the east coast. It managed to decouple going up through the hills - and we found our part of the train sliding down the hill until the front of the train managed to back up and get us reconnected. It was kind of scarey. A first world country it is not.

Try to learn some Spanish before you go. My husband and I speak Spanish - and it was useful (there are a lot of people who don't speak any English).

BTW - as a woman - I don't think I'd want my husband to hide all our valuables in my unmentionables. He can hide them in his unmentionables. Would make him look like a Calvin Klein underwear model . Roby

why have a damn independent ratings agency with this type of bs mentality-

"Second, and related to our first issue, Fitch's capital model assumptions for public finance risks are inconsistent with MBIA's view, the markets in which these securities trade, and the views of the other major rating agencies."

who gives a flying #$@%^&* if their inconsistent to MBIA's view.

risk capital,

"Fitch's capital model assumptions for public finance risks are inconsistent with MBIA's view, the markets in which these securities trade"

Well we know how these securities are holding up in the markets. So Fitch must be OVER valuing these securities. Perhaps MBIA wants to get them marked to market.

/end sarcasm.

Cheers,

Misean-

this is unfreakinbeliveable!

risk capital,

I heard it when it broke on Bloom TV. About did a spit take. I'm just not too damned sure what it means. Why they're trying to dump Fitch...As far as I can tell this hasn't happened before. I may have to increase voltage to the hat.

I keep thinking there may be something brewing in the Cayman Island RE. Pure speculation on my part.

Cheers,

OT -- where can I go to buy a put on gold or GLD (I think we have a nice drop coming with the stock market correction)?

Also, can I buy a call on gold or GLD there, too (for when I transfer assets to overseas; I want to hedge against a possible run up in price)?

Thanks, folks!

risk capital,

It confuses me. Re Fitch:

Their fees are too high.

Their model doesn't work in this environment.

We don't like you neener neener.

You're French.

(The last two are mine.)

Fitch's model's are somewhat more conservative, so in a turbulent environment, a conservative rating makes more sense.

Something is going on behind the scenes. My spidey sense is tingling...Oh wait, that's the Super Colander Tin Foil Hat shocking me again.

Cheers,

How about this:

We appreciate the service Fitch has provided to MBIA in the past. As we continue to evaluate our five-year transformation plan, and with the expectation of a return to normalcy in the market's valuation of the IFS rating, we look forward to obtaining a Fitch rating for any and all insurance entities that could be established to target specific marketplaces around the globe.

The nerv to ask Fitch to keep rating that other stuff... arghhhh what kind of people are these???? MBIA's arrogance is beyond words! This is worse than Jeff Skilling!

I think we are witnessing a very sensitive moment in terms of rating agency trust. This spring we will find out how much self-respect they can keep. MBIA is going nuts, they are breaking what so far has been silent politics, and are carrying out the politics in the public domain, which is not only ugly/low, but it also reveals to those among us who are more naive, that indeed, the monoline rating process has been a closet political process since a loooong time ago.

LOL... and 2 hours later it turns out that THIS IS related to Fitch's methods.

As the Company continues to evaluate its five-year transformation plan, and with the expectation of a return to normality in the market’s valuation of the IFS rating, MBIA expects that there will be opportunities to work with Fitch for ratings on the Company’s future insurance entities

If I were Fitch I would immediately issue a PR saying "Fitch hereby publicly commits to never again any NEW business from MBIA".

Remember- even Republicans like gold!

YouTube - Maybe he's a Republican? 

There is always a deal folks;-}

Someday this war's gonna end...

probert-

agree, I hope an analyst has the kahuna's to tell the whole story here, this is total bullshit.

Hey wait a tic you retard (paulson), oversight is a key initiative in your department, retard! Look at your own web apge idiot!

404 Not Found

The Administration is committed to maintaining America’s leading role in the global capital markets through the Treasury Department’s capital markets competitiveness action plan. As part of this plan, Treasury is working to prepare a blueprint that seeks a rationalized regulatory structure that can adapt to the dynamic U.S. marketplace while improving oversight.

Has anyone seen that other retard Im looking for, Warbash..no Wahbash, no Warsh..yah, WARSH???

If Financial Isaac can reduce our economic lives down to a single FICO score why do we need the monolines and rating agencies?
Hand the business over to Financial Isaac to reduce the company to a single score

Obviously illegal workers were a major source of laborers for construction.

Probably the worst kept "secret" in the country the last 5 years.

Yet another boob:

Re: Auditors play an essential role in assuring the investing public that financial statements are both relevant and reliable.

Bullshit bub!

Remarks by Mark W. Olson, Chairman

Today's Global Audit Environment Annual Washington Conference of the Institute for International Bankers

March 3, 2008

The PCAOB’s approach to oversight of these non-U.S. audit firms continues to evolve, in part due to the fact that similar auditor oversight bodies are being established throughout the world. This is having an important impact on our work.

MarkS,

They're jobs Amerikans don't want to do. All my carpenter buddies hate working. Including the hispanic ones 2nd and 3rd and 4th..11th generation ones. They love getting undercut by $5/hr underskilled tooless illegals.

Cheers,

Gary,

"NEVER USE YOUR WORK EMAIL FOR PERSONAL BUSINESS!"

Bwahahaahaha.

I'm the first one asked to read it. Friggin' hillarious. Well no actually it's quite boring, but some sexual inuendo emails are quite funny. Had one about a threesome being planned on a Friday.

I wrote the companies email policy. It said that we monitor emails.

Head shakingly funny.

Cheers,

So, some real dog turds were sent by MBIA to Fitch, S&P, and Moody's. The later played ball and Fitch didn't. Now MBIA wants that shite destroyed/returned, and also for Fitch to butt out.

MBIA may wish it had held it's temper.

Cheers,

"In Krugman's view, Geither is "...pretty close to saying that the financial markets are melting down."
"
I read the whole talk by Geithner and came away pretty impressed by the guy. He clearly knows what he is doing and sounds very calm. I am glad he is at the center of the storm as opposed to some goober politico.