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Did Larry Ellison decide to build his new home there?
That would skew the average stats;-}
Oh, I see, college perfessor homes.
Ohio University.
The other University in Ohio, not the one in columbus which shall not be named by those who have graced Ann Arbor.
here's some data (i'll keep googlin'):
http://www.odod.state.oh.us/research/FILES/S0/Athens.pdf
Maybe someone at HUD made a mistake and listed Athens County, OH instead of Athens/Clark County Georgia?
After reading the wiki on Athens, OH, I'm inclined to agree with Winston.
Oh, I see, college perfessor homes
Exactly. There are all kinds of communities with "college professor homes" in economically-stricken midwestern states, and none of them is on the list. No Ann Arbor. No Evanston. No Madison.
Why Athens?
Tanta,
My old drinking...err stomping grounds.
Athens County...Home of Ohio University.
Most all homes there are very nice and well done. Even the areas out of town are large (10-100ac) with huge homes...
The bad thing is OU is the only game in town,pretty much.
Chris
Especially since Athens GA is expensive enough to be on the list and it isn't.
It occurred to me that maybe a Congressman or Senator from the area might've been responsible, but the town's congressman, David Hobson is retiring.
Any big political fundraisers live in the area? Maybe someone has a house or two they want to sell (or buy?).
Athens GA skipped? Maybe the entire state? Lots of loan problems in that state.
Tanta, did you look into this?
OFHEO says:
In support of HUDs calculation of county median home prices, OFHEO provided HUD rural house price indexes for 48 states. HUD used these indexes, which reflect price changes for homes outside of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, to estimate median prices in counties for which sales price data were sparse.
OH: 4Q07 index value 167.28 (1Q95 = 100)
It is called gov. stupidity.
I know people who have become/looked into becoming college professors in college towns and one of the big benefits they always consider is the ability to buy a nice house right next to the college for $90k or whatever.
--
Athens County, Ohio
Sterling Reputation as Poor Area, even in Oh!-High-O!:
Homeownership rate, 2000 60.5%
Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2000 $84,300
Median household income, 2004 $29,785
Persons below poverty, percent, 2004 20.2%
There must be 2-3 influential people who want to buy $450K homes. BTW, supposedly HUD will use Radar Logic Data.
Jas
Perhaps they just have a twisted sense of humor.
Well something weird is going on as the county really got in on the boom late if you believe the chart on this site: Athens County, Ohio detailed profile - houses, real estate, cost of living, wages, work, agriculture, ancestries, and more
Median price $400,000 by 2006 Q2.
Why is Riverside/San Bernardino, CA at $500,000. That is also not 125%. Maybe they are looking at those cities with a lot of forclosures and adding an extra 25%+ just in case.
Angela
OH: 4Q07 index value 167.28 (1Q95 = 100)
Yeah, I saw that.
I do believe that HUD used annual numbers rather than Q4 (which would be most current) or Q3 (which is the traditional change point for use in calculating the conforming limit). I haven't found any description of their methodology for these "temp" limits, but there is information on "appealing" limits that makes reference to use of whole-year data to "take into account disruptions" in the market.
But even if you went to Q107 you don't get anywhere near a median of $346,000 for this county in any data I've found so far.
weird.
I think might be better spent looking at the political roster - Scratching backs is a reality.
I scoped out a few Ohio real estate sites, max price I saw was 525 on one house, pretty much everything else is between 100 and 200 though. I'd go with the typo hypothesis.
JKB
That's friggin weird! A place with 62k people having going from 10 or so home sales per quarter to 275 and median housing prices going from a $50,000 median house price to a $400k median price in one year. Something smells REALLY strange in that data!
As pointed out by JKB:
http://pics4.city-data.com/cotrends/ctr95.png
While the median may be low, someone was buying homes for high-dollar amounts.
That's an interesting little chart there, JKB. If I'm reading it correctly the Q407 median is based on 50 transactions.
powerful Representatives district?
O/T but some economists enjoy seeing trickle down:
This just in now we can see the Feds funding leverage. I have a new term "Dead Debt Swapping"tm:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday said it would commit $1 billion to shore up six leveraged municipal bond hedge funds that have been hammered by steep declines in asset values in recent weeks.
The funds, managed by Citi under the ASAT Finance and MAT Finance names, have already soaked up some $600 million to allow them to continue trading and meet margin calls, said Citi. The funds held about $2 billion in bonds, backed by another $13 billion or so in debt, or leverage
My bet is own the wealthy purchasing hobby farms. This county seems even more perfect for that with the university nearby to provide culture.
If you look at Zillow there seem to be mainly 1500-2000 sq. ft. houses for sale between 100-200 thousand. No bubble here that I can see.
Sorry here is the link:
Citigroup Commits $1 Bln to Shore Up Muni Hedge Funds
| Reuters
I can verify that there is NO WAY that Athens county requires jumbo loans. We went there for a state park visit and home prices have to be far below the state average UNLESS there were some sales with significant farmland included. I'll 12th Athens Co., GA.
"significant farmland" - soy/corn production for ethanol perhaps
Barley,
That's possible. The city has a biolubricant company and on their chamber of commerce website they are trying to attract an ethanol plant.
"significant farmland" - soy/corn production for ethanol perhaps
No. I'm not buying that. HUD, of all parties, is supposed to be smart enough to ignore agricultural and commercial RE in these data.
"Hobby farm" maybe, as those can slip into residential RE. But not soybeans. No way.
I found this Realtor. They only list 8 properties over $200k and one of those is commercial. Nothing is way over the top. Maybe $550k for a house and 38 acres.
website:
Athens Realty - Homes and Houses for sale in Athens, Ohio, Ohio University, and Southeast Ohio
they are trying to shake you off their trail.
Remember the joke with Karl Rove and Dick Cheney discussing nuking Iran and killing 400,000 locals and a blonde with big hooters?
Who cares about Ohio?
More importantly - What happened to Spitzer today? I was too busy seeing dollahs vanish in my trading account to listen to the sociopath's plight today.
No Way? Maybe
HUD > "Sensitive and flexible, geered to local economies"
barely, I have basically been ignoring comment threads on my own blog all day because I am frankly tired of Spitzer commentary.
Can we like, give it a rest?
What happened to Spitzer today?
Talk of impeachement or legal proceedings if he does not resign
oh, but what the children, the childern, the children...
Sorry Tanta. Spitzer off.
Only one explanation: mortgage fraud
Only one explanation: mortgage fraud
Well, I don't know if that's the only possible explanation, but that possibility has surely got to worry us all.
Oh yeah, and italics off.
OT: CNBC (Kudlow) continues to define the RE problem as house prices falling. IMHO the solution is for prices to fall (or incomes rise but I am absolutely sure Kudlow would oppose that) until the median house price is around 2-3x median household income. Maintaining the current imbalance will NOT clear the market now that subprime is a four letter word.
CNBC is the ground zero of class warfare. Very instructive to understand their bias.
Jim
I grew up in Cincinnati and spent a good deal of time in Athens County hunting and roaming the country side. The area is well known for marajuana production - there and especially Meggs County just to the south.
I imagine the larger loan size is needed to cover acreage needed to hide the plot.
Could that county had a high end develpment finished and sold last year?
With enough units it can tip the scales.
This realtor
Larry Conrath Realty
shows what looks like recently built homes, some listed w/acreage, but a few without, that are $400k+
The county doesnt have anything online for property records, but I suspect some developer decided that the area needed McMansions, hence the spike in prices.
I've seen some mention of high tech companies in the area due to the university and just read a news story about Ohio University using grants to study the feasibility of on demand air taxi service at their airport. They are talking executive jets so there must be some money coming into the area.
It big money is coming into the area and with the dearth of real estate transactions, could one or two big sales a year skew the median?
holy smokes this county must just be a huge mcmansion farm if that is what is causing it. before this the only jumbo in athens OH was the jumbo fries at arby's.
I bet it was politics. They wanted a few counties outside of CA, etc., so it wouldn't like the rest of the country was bailing out a few places, which of course, is what it is.
Here is my bid for being an uber-nerd.
According to Wikipedia and USPS, the zip codes for the country at 45701, 45764, 45710, 45711, 45716, 45719, 45723, 45732, 45740, 45782, 44622, 44254, 44085, 45373, 45688
Feeding those zip codes into the ever helpful website of the NAR (http://www.realtor.com) I find a total of 844 properties for sale. Not a whole lot.
If I look at the highest asking price, what first strikes me is how stupid the NAR is... because the 2 most expensive listings are in there twice. Same address, same price, different MLS IDs. Looking at the next most expensive listing, I see that this must have been a fun game in Athens OH amongst the realtors there (to list multiple times), since 7646 Vandermark Rd is listed 3 times (all at $531K ask).
On the low end, the same data problems exist. 111 Canad Rd is listed at a $1 price etc...
But, if you take the median even with all of this data crap of the 844 "properties", you get the median ask price of $149,900.
For the curious, this is 3325 Redbud in Troy OH.
That graph scares me. More than the inventory graph of San Diego or Phoenix. It definately, as others already noted, implies a McMansion building frenzy.
Now to see if Freddie and Fannie can sell enough bonds to make a difference.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ahh, found the land records...
LandAccess - LandAccess Ohio Disclaimer
"Can we like, give it a rest"
I guess I'll have to go slummin' on CNN or MSNBC.
Sorry for the double post.
But please explain to me the point of having Portland OR's limit at $418,750.
I'm sure that extra ~$2k makes all the difference!
At $523,750, I'll admit Boston surprised me on the low side too.
I'm a little disapointed at how high they set the Hawaiian limits.
Oh, look how low Miami is too! $423,750. A whole extra $7k. This plan will obviously save that condo market.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
all those ohio mcmansions and miami condos will soon be slipping back into 'conforming classic' mode (ie value below 417k) soon enough.
That graph kind of looks like a cobra to me. Is that a sign?
I was wondering the same thing about Salt Lake City.
median about 233,000 and new conforming limit of 729,750.
What's up with that?
SLC has a conforming limit of $729,750? Holy Father of Mormonism. That is insane. Sounds like a dart board was used for this exercise.
Okay, perfessors want to retire on their homes country.
lol, good luck at buiding that chart backup to healthy!
Ye gawds, we just had the most revolutionary Fed action yet, and I am contemplating a podunk University Town in 'hio!
Lol. Might as well move to Silver City New Mexico, at least the views are better and the humidity is less.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Hazard writes:
Athens GA skipped? Maybe the entire state? Lots of loan problems in that state.
Hazard | 03.11.08 - 6:28 pm | #
No more than Ohio
Off topic
Very cool graphical look at AAA bonds that FAIL for investment grade.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=iQUy2GaasArs
Only slightly off-topic, but who wins the best facial hair among the realtors at http://www.athens-realty.com/main.php?page=realtors§ion=realtors_top
It's basically dead even between Rick Swart and Paul Sarchet, with the tie-breaker going to Rick, because it looks like Sarchet's might actually be a toupee
How about Truth or Consequences, ALlenM?
Athens is (mostly) represented by Charlie Wilson (same name, different war) who serves on the financial services committee and drafted part of the FHA bill that "cracks down on inflated home appraisals."
What would be interesting to see is the owners of the McMansion developments, and to track the campaign contributions...
Know a lady that grew up in T or C, she wouldn't go back to live there until she was near dead, and then would complain about it.
I would do Sedona, but the flakes are just too much with their phony new ageism. Flagstaff is too cold, and Tucson too big. Trying to talk to my wife about Fredonia, but she thinks it is too close to Colorado City- lol;-=}
Someday I might just get to retire;-}
What does the Fed consider Aaa? What if the bond is rated Aaa by Moody's and not Fitch?
Makes no sense. Here are statistical averages for this location:http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:WwQ-u970I1oJ:www.city-data.com/county/Athens_County-OH.html+Athens+County,+Ohio+china&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us
Based on the records search, Larry Conrath (the realtor) seems to be the biggest generator of filing fees in Athens. Zero campaign contributions that I can find via the web, but his name comes back as active in his community. Maybe it's just capitalism working out for him.
ooops sorry. Wrong context.
I think fraud. But alternately, a high-end retirement home (400-600 condo units) might be able to generate those kind of numbers. It's a stretch, but if you are entertaining options other than fraud, that would be most plausible.
I don't know anything about the county but look at that red line. Crash and burn time! Prices in 08Q1-Q2 are going back to $100K if the pilot doesn't pull up in time. That curve looks like what NASA's Vomit Comet does.
Somebody is going to be hurting badly.
Per Ohio Department of Development, in 2006, Athens County added a total of 97 residential buildings, 26 SFRs with an average price of $180k and 71 condos with an average condos of $44k. So McMansions are out.
College/university towns have gotten to be very popular.
Oxford,MS , home of the University of Mississippi,
had condos on the town square going for 750k.
Never discount wealthy alumni.
Okay. I found the website for the Athens County Auditor. It's actually pretty advanced as far as search functions go. I did an advanced search for sales between $500,000 and $20,000,000 occurring between 1/1/06 and 3/11/08. The search yielded 140 results.
The search results upon click through take you to the appraised/assessed value. At the top of that page you can click on "sales" to get the sales history on the parcel.
First link is to the aforemetioned search
Search for big $$ sales in Athens
Next link is to a page showing one of the sales records - this one was for less than 1 acre lot zoned residential. Built in 1992 and sold at that time for $34,000. Sold again in March 2007 for $542,000!!!
McMansion??
Finally a link to the main search page
Advanced Search
Have fun...
Judging by the way that the median housing price crashed from Q3 2007 to Q4 2007, there'll probably be a bunch of stories on CNN about how terrible the housing crash has become.
Athens, OH = San Diego, CA
Oh, the humanity.
BTW Bacon Dreamz - where do you come up with this stuff?
Next link is to a page showing one of the sales records - this one was for less than 1 acre lot zoned residential. Built in 1992 and sold at that time for $34,000. Sold again in March 2007 for $542,000!!!
You have an unimproved lot there in 1992. It looks like the house was built in 1999.
Still, that 2007 price is insane.
"Never discount wealthy alumni."
Common on. You're not serious, are you? Are you?
"Still, that 2007 price is insane."
Or criminal.
I have to agree with Winston and Topher...Dad and bro still live in Athens GA i'm 3rd generation we have all been in banking and realestate..
and it too is home to UGA...
But we got hit hard with bubble up and the low 400's would be a reasonable increase.....
nice victorian homes...
top rated for retirement now...
and the music scene is awesome..but its also the smallest county in all of GA...
Plus i used to drink with a topher when i was at UGA...
IMHO
Could it be that residential property was rezoned commercial or multifamily ? Athens is very compact
and the University is probably short on room to grow.
True but only 23 of those are residential and another 25 are farms.
Tanta,
Not sure I agree - I'll defer to your better grasp of these things but when I look here
Residential Record
I see under "year built" 1993
Scratch that - I meant this link
a href="http://www.athenscountyauditor.org/PropertySearch/Data.aspx?ParcelID=A010260402100>Corrected Link from above post
"But can anyone tell me what they're smoking at HUD?"
They must be smokine some of Athen's finest. I guess all the pot growers like nice houses.
ahhh I hate haloscan
Really this time this is the correct link at least I hope it is....
BTW Bacon Dreamz - where do you come up with this stuff?
i'm magic.
I see under "year built" 1993
OK, I was speed-reading. If you click on the "improvements" tab it says the garage was built in 1999.
I've never seen this particular website or county data before, so I don't want to make claims about how stuff appears here. I'm just wary sometimes of the original price given for any parcel, because it is so often the lot.
Perhaps this Athens, OH "intergenerational golf club community" might help explain the mystery?
University Estates, a golf club community. Athens, Ohio, Realty, Condos, Custom Homes, Builders, Lots, Retirement
Mike wins the today's prize for best commenting while drinking too many after-dinner martinis!
I have a friend that bought a 1200 sq ft house in athens back in october. 10 acres $80,000. He is currently employed framing houses for a small time spec builder. the builder has 2 completed houses which sit unsold and a third is under construction. I was told a newly arrived proffessor made an offer on one of the houses (around $350,000). problem was he had to sell his house in florida first...he received a housing stipend from the university of about $1500 a month and offered that as rent.
There is a ton of data on the Athens County, Ohio: Online Auditor - Home web site...you can do searches and export to .csv.
Hmmm. Not sure how to take that -
Mike wins the today's prize for best commenting while drinking too many after-dinner martinis!
Sadly I haven't had any martini's or any other alcohol - I will have to change that...
Athens is just across the river from West Virginia.
Has anyone dusted this report for Senator Byrd's fingerprints?
The linked house is big 3400sf, next to Athens country club. Owned by a OU Prof. Google Earth appears to show a lot of big houses and development activity in that area.
Hmmm. Not sure how to take that
probably best to take it straight up. you never know when you might be confronted with a GM article around here. blech.
Luxury McMansions in BF Athens, OH!
Ponies, yes ponies on site!
University Estates, a golf club community. Athens, Ohio, Realty, Condos, Custom Homes, Builders, Lots, Retirement
Welcome to the University Estates web site. This exciting, new, southeastern Ohio lifestyle / retirement community is located in Athens, home of Ohio University. Housing options include condominiums in single floor plan and three-story townhome designs, and beautiful custom homes located on scenic, wooded lots. Visit High Pointe Village, Grande Vista Village or Phase 1 of the custom home sites. Take a look at the progress, plans and layout of our spectacular 18-hole golf course.
Are my comments showing up?
Just trying a different approach.
Thanks.
Tanta,
I admit it! I immediately jumped to comment, and didn't read any comments to this post. I also, noticed this anomaly, and thought to myself, Hummm? who's the Congressman/Senator for this district? Just another example of how this War is going to affect All of Us...the tax paying public. Reference FHA Reform...Has everyone written their Representatives today?
Athens, Georgia ==>Athens, Ohio
is my explanation.
(After a day of wrestling with patent prosecutions I'm not putting anything below what a bureaucracy can do by mistake.)
tranche water, I think you have found the gold pony. Combined with the chart by JKB it looks this thing came on line and sold a bunch of high end properties at the top of the boom.
grumpy realists, you mean the US still has patents to prosecute? thought the Chinese stole them all.
gotz to go to epodunk
Athens County, OH - county housing, home & apartment costs - ePodunk
12th fastest growing county in Ohio 2000-2003
Population growth - Ohio counties
Athens County, OH - county housing, home & apartment costs - ePodunk
Not much help yet
"Hobby farm" maybe, as those can slip into residential RE. But not soybeans. No way.
According to a friend who hails from the areas, one of the local agricultural specialties is of the weed variety. Adjacent Meigs County is more famous for the stuff, though.
p.s. Anyone on pony watch can sit through the 10 minute informational video on their site- it's near the end, when they start talking about phase 3.
"The sort with a surprising amount of time to kill given your apparent educational background and skill levels."
Indeed.
That graph scares me. More than the inventory graph of San Diego or Phoenix. It definately, as others already noted, implies a McMansion building frenzy.
What concerns me about that graph is the almost complete lack of any sales prior to 4Q05. Forget the price appreciation. Where were the sales before that quarter ? The county didn't spring forth from nowhere... there had to be a comparable quantity of sales (regardless of the price).
ote the $4000-6000 homes
I can't explain the prices, but the city-data graph lines up nicely with the completion of a divided highway bypass from Columbus,OH to Athens County. Completion of this bypass put Athens Co. in easy second-home commuting distance of Columbus. The county is one of the most scenic in the state, and the push of illmatic lending (and some speculation) along with the pull of ye olde quainte second home probably conspired to drive the prices up.
But really. Athens County? Not 45243?
So am I correct in that it looks like this high Jumbo loan limit might be driven by a single development? Who do these developers know?
Anyone got access to:
Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) analysis program from Peertrax
According to this doc numbers might source from the following disparate systems.
http://www.ci.lancaster.oh.us/dept/commdev/pdf/Lancaster%20FHIA.pdf
The 1990/2000 Census
Zoning Regulations for City of Lancaster
Various reports on housing programs, land use controls, affordable housing, and local legislation
Fair housing complaint information from the City of Lancaster, through the Ohio Civil Rights Commission & Housing Opportunities Made Equal
Real estate ads from the area newspapers
The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) analysis program from Peertrax
Maptitude and Peertrax mapping and data program
Interviews with key community representatives
One more-
So if you moved into your phase 3 Podunk, OH McMansion with golf frontage and stable rights...
And you used your savings from the LFKAJ to Jumbo differential to buy a horse...
Could you lay claim to the first free Bailout Pony?
Just askin'...
A little OT, but: the new FHA guidelines were passed along to my (real estate) office today. They are WAY less restrictive than I thought they'd be. You can check them out at San Fernando Valley Real Estate.
note the $4000-6000 homes
note the $4000-6000 homes
JKB-
Yes, your hypothesis of one development causing this looks good to me. "University Estates" doesn't look to be into the multiple hundreds of homes though, so I'll bet some repeated flipping activity is getting into the county data.
Well done Athens, OH.
Where would you like your golden pony statue?
.
Completion of this bypass put Athens Co. in easy second-home commuting distance of Columbus.
You don't suppose that the alumni were buying second homes so they'd have someplace comfy to stay on football weekends ? (not to mention the flipping aspect)
Anyone got a line on recent FC data for that county ?
I don't know anything about this stuff, but I'm really impressed by the diligence of the commenting brain trust.
Keep up the good work, guys!
From Wiki's 2000 census:
The median income for a household in the county was $27,322, and the median income for a family was $39,785. Males had a median income of $30,776 versus $23,905 for females. The per capita income for the county was $14,171. About 14.00% of families and 27.40% of the population were below the poverty line, including 21.20% of those under age 18 and 12.90% of those age 65 or over.
The research skills of the uber nerds are breath taking. What if they concentrated on world peace? They could find the answer and a pony too!
Lawn grass, I believe in the 6k homes.
This region has little to no economic development. Food pantrys in the area often have a three hour line. Its a rural appalachian county.
This being the case, it's a speculators dream. Cash poor and land rich with slim regulation on development? Buy a dowdy 1960s ranch from a local for 40k and sell it to dentist from New Albany for 150k. It happened.
But there are "homes" in this area that are straight out of Let Us Now Praise Famous Men.
Page Not Found!
Athens Ohio Real Estate
Athens Ohio Real Estate
Athens Ohio Real Estate: Search Results
Completion of this bypass put Athens Co. in easy second-home commuting distance of Columbus.
Well, somebody must have had a bad day when they realized that Fannie "the Bitch is Back" Mae ain't buying second homes in the LFKAJ product.
And you couldn't ever do second homes in FHA without lying about it.
I think the whole increased confroming loan limit idea is stupid. But since you posted the link, I took a look at the Colorado designated areas. Three of the counties listed, Ouray, Hinsdale and San Juan, have a combined population of about 4,000 people (which equates to a whole
100 homes sales a year total, of which maybe 10 would fall within the expanded range). And I am left scratching my head why they didn't include the entire counties of Eagle and Summit (two of the most expensive in the State), but only specified a small, average micropoletion area within each.
And I agree that it should be Athens GA, rather than Athens OH.
Note one of the above is +$900,000 but sorry it is in another county
And this 495,000 log cabin in the hills
Athens County Ohio Property - Real Estate & Land Available For Sale
Here is the link to the $4000-6000 homes. Looks like there might be a foreclosure meltdown on some of these.
One explaination might be the presence of Ohio University, a rather large component of the state university system in Ohio. The associated folks might not be millionaires but but they haul down a pretty impressive salary compared to their rural Ohio brethren.
The link dammit
Search Foreclosures Nationwide | RealtyTrac
Tnata-
It was the home equitATM. Columbus, Ohio isn't Irvine, CA but the effect was the same. Appraised values shoot up and all of a sudden you have Free! Money!
and then something happens and your state becomes one of the leaders in FC rates in the nation.
I see the link does not take you to Athens county Ohio. Let your finders do the walking.
JD, I spent most of the morning looking at this stuff, and I haven't decided whether it's just that the methodology was ignorant, or if someone was trying to make this "look like" not just a CA-NY-FL-DC deal.
Just for starters, out of 236 affected areas, 72 have an increase of less than 5%. The cake is taken by Weld County, CO, with a new loan limit of $417,500.
Mike in Long Island > Nice work! Dont care how many after dinner martinis
Weld County - that place went crazy building left and right
e.g. go to
Foreclosures on Yahoo! Real Estate - Foreclosure Information, Trends & more!
search on zip 80631
One explaination might be the presence of Ohio University, a rather large component of the state university system in Ohio. The associated folks might not be millionaires but but they haul down a pretty impressive salary compared to their rural Ohio brethren.
So when was Ohio U opened? When did the faculty start getting paid better than average? Look at the chart I posted. The median price went from $50K in Q305 to nearly $450K less than a year later?
Tanta - I like Weld County. Having lived in Denver for a time you cant but help to enjoy the awesome blue skies and eastern horizens that never end.
An equally strange thing happened out West with Salt Lake getting the max for conforming and FHA, while neighboring cities, with higher median prices, recieved much lower increased limits, if at all.
See this post for details.
My sister is an OSU professor.
Her husband was an OU professor.
They did not, do not, make enough to justify a jumbo loan.
Please don't blame the strange prices on OU or OSU professors.
Norka
Nigel, the calculation was not 175% of median price.
It was the higher of the current conforming limit or 125% of the area median price, with a maximum of 175% of the current conforming limit ($729,750.)
I don't have any idea how Salt Lake City's max got calculated, either.
something is amiss here. I thought the same thing when I saw a WV county in the over 417 club. For the first time in my life, I wish I was at work. I will post more tmrw.
Bacon take it easy on the dr.peppers.
Maybe I scanned through the comments too fast, but doesn't anyone find it odd that there were only a handful of sales in all of 2004 and the first half of 2005 and then the sales count sky rockets. I wonder if the graph is correct.
I get a total sales count of approx 1,600 units from 2H05 to 4Q07. That can't be from one development (University Estates??)...can it?
BTW, I'm amazed at the amount of relevant info dug up by everyone tonight...job well done!
Anon:
There's a chance it may be mostly University Estates if there are some questionable sales getting into the data that was used:
I.e. the developer sells all to an investment group -> investment group sells to individual specuvestors -> specuvestors flip and reflip.
300 homes could easily become 900 sales- so the median sale could be a $400k U. Estates house.
Possible anyway.
I'm not sure what I'm seeing under this commercial real estate for the Athens OH area listing but it appears to be land transactions tied into the University Estates venture.
Anyone find sample price listings for University Estates? The homes are nice enough although they don't appear to be of $500K value. The background info for the development states that they were founded in 2000. They are still working on "Phase 1" with Phase 2&3 coming soon while the development is just now entering into the final stages of being incorporated into the city... It doesn't sound to me that this venture exactly caught fire.
I did find, as others have pointed out, some high priced homes (and a lot of land parcels) for the area. However I suspect that they fall outside the bell curve of any normalized data spread. Especially so considering the rather limited sample size and its volatility. And therein lies the risk of profiling based on a small sample size over a relatively short time frame. I can't prove that is what happened here but it sure looks likely - then again that would be profiling...
Disclaimer from the web site (city-data.com)JKB found...no disrespect JKB.
"Home sales trends information Powered by On Board LLC
Copyright © 2008 On Board LLC. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
City-data.com does not guarantee the accuracy or timeliness of any information on this site. Use at your own risk."
No offense taken. I was suspicious of the validity of the website myself. However, there has been nothing to account for the county ending up on the Jumbo list. By all information found, the rise in housing prices seem to be as recent and as sudden as shown in the graph.
This is reflected in that Walmart is the 5th largest employer: :: Athens Area Chamber of Commerce
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/bulletins/b03-04_attach.pdf
11900 Athens, OH Micropolitan Statistical Area Principal City: Athens Athens County
1.25 times the median house price for the highest priced county in the property's metropolitan or micropolitan area
So, we need to find ONE house that throws the median off into the stratosphere. Where oh where is that data point?
(Mean, Median, Mode, and Range Mean, median, and mode are three kinds of "averages". There are many "averages" in statistics, but these are, I think, the three most common, and are certainly the three you are most likely to encounter in your pre-statistics courses, if the topic comes up at all.
The "mean" is the "average" you're used to, where you add up all the numbers and then divide by the number of numbers. The "median" is the "middle" value in the list of numbers. To find the median, your numbers have to be listed in numerical order, so you may have to rewrite your list first. The "mode" is the value that occurs most often. If no number is repeated, then there is no mode for the list.
The "range" is just the difference between the largest and smallest values.)
For the first time in my life, I wish I was at work.
You'll forgive us for that, won't you?
Bacon take it easy on the dr.peppers.
pop? never touch the stuff. makes me babble of syncopated newts.
Found a local article on the housing market. From early February regarding foreclosures. Californians will find solace in that the county has 15-16 foreclosures a month, up from 5 or 6 in 2002. In Feb, the foreclosed properties had an appraised value of $28,500 to $180,000. No sign of the high priced properties. They must really be hidden from the regular population.
404 - Error: 404
Athens is located in Wayne National Forest, which is the only national forest in Ohio. According to Wikipedia, much of this land is owned by the federal government without the mineral rights, those having been retained by former owners. Not sure is this is related or not.
"makes me babble of syncopated newts"
again the 'puter screen needs cleani
University Estate Mortgage Loans... (duplicate post to the '401 Foreclosure' post but I couldn't figure out how to move it) Sorry..
Looks like the Ohio University Credit Union is getting set to offer Fannie Mae approved mortgages for University estates pending approval by Fannie Mae.
Re: The 'median' value. Establishing the median value rather than a simple average would be the more accurate within a small sample size. The further normalize the data distribution you should also discard the lower and upper outliers - say 5% of the sample size on either end.
Nice catch, JKB. This part suggests caution in looking at FC prices:
Williams said that when the properties are auctioned off, the minimum bids have to begin at two-thirds of the appraised value of the property. Whoever purchases the property must pay 10 percent of the agreed-upon price that day, and the rest of the purchase price within 30 days, Williams said.
You cant back out, she added.
Often, no one appears at the auctions to bid on the properties except the banks or mortgage companies that are owed money on them, Williams said. If they buy back the properties, they only have to pay the back taxes on the land. The banks and mortgage companies then can sell the properties on their own in order to obtain the money owed them, according to Williams.
If a jurisdiction allows bids to start at the tax due, and multiple bids are allowed, then lenders will generally not start at their "make whole amount." They'll start at the minimum bid and go up to make-whole only if they have to.
So you would want to be cautious about trying to derive existing mortgage from FC prices.
Note: many jurisdictions don't allow multiple bids. In those, the lender nearly always bids its full make-whole amount.
OFHEO on New FHA Loan Limits | FHA Mortgage Guide
There are two data sources reflecting the new maximum limits. The first, on OFHEOs Web site, available at http://www.ofheo.gov/media/hpi/AREA_LIST.pdf, reports only those counties and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that are affected by the new loan limits. Data for all areas are available on the HUD Web site at https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicostlook.cfm
.
We are only looking at new maximum limits.
https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicostlook.cfm
Is really fun if you look by county at just OHIO.
You get a WTF moment when you see Athens is the spike. It ain't in GA. It is in Ohio and even amoung OH it stands out.
If I was looking ahead to November,
I might not want to irritate Ohio
by denying it the prestige of a
new loan limit somewhere.
I might then commence to blindfold
a newbie, and have him place a pin
somewhere on a map of Ohio.
Multiple flipping between parties can drive prices up really really fast.
I watched a house on the Seattle MLS a few years back, a real junker, that was obviously being flipped back and forth among people who knew each other. It would get sold then be back up for sale a few months later, rinse, repeat.
Withing a year it had been sold at least four times and the price had gone from @ 280K to slightly over $1 million . They probably got some HELOC $$ out of it too along the way before all was over.
Isn't that the scam? You sell it to a friend and split the profit, repeat.
When it got over a million, that was the end of the road. It sat on the MLS for over a year with ridiculous 5K price reductions every 4 months. I assume it finally went into foreclosure.
Thank the asleep at the wheel politicians and financial "regulators" for allowing, and even encouraging this death game with housing.
Think it might be politics too -
The Athens NEWS
dem just got elected sheriff narrowly over repub -- obama too athens city, but hillary took rural areas...hmmy
was athens promised any new industry/biz by any of these politicians I wonder...I think you all should email this thread to the paper anyhow..
yeeps - "took athens city"
here's another one: Baltimore's median price used for the new limit is $448K, while NAR says the median is $291K. wtf?
per UBS:
Conversations with HUD officials as well as a careful look at the data indicates that the HUD data uses the median home prices for the most expensive county in each MSA, and every county in the MSA is set at the same limit. This methodology was based on the fact that congressional intent was to push the loan limits as high as they would go (to encompass as many loans as possible). Indeed, this makes sense for a temporary increase, which is engineered to allow more loans to go the Agency execution channel.
Data for all areas are available on the HUD Web site at
Fun to look at the Florida listings. Only one county hit the maximum: Monroe (the Florida Keys). aka Hurricane Alley.
Everything up in my part of the state is pretty much at the minimum levels (and rightly so).
Conversations with HUD officials as well as a careful look at the data indicates that the HUD data uses the median home prices for the most expensive county in each MSA
That, they have always done (in setting FHA limits).
The thing is, a county that isn't part of an MSA just gets its true median. Supposedly.
Our Athens County isn't in spitting distance of an MSA that would drive its median up to the MSA level.
I'm an OU graduate and spent 5 years of my life in Athens. For the record, OU is the oldest university in Ohio, founded in 1804.
I do think this University Village is the culprit. I was trying to find where this development was on a location map. But the link on the web site is bad -- just keeps going back to the same page. Weird in a fishy way?
Here's the link: http://www.universityestatesoc.com/athens.html#
Also, being a university town, there's a lot of student housing. That's old fashioned real estate investing -- making rental income off of a steady customer base. So I would think some of the house prices in the city of Athens may be higher than surrounding areas due to this. But University Village is far from student housing.
http://www.fhaoutreach.com/gridInfo.jsp?state=oh&county=athens
shows the median home sales price to be $346,000 for Athens County. There is no indciation where that came from or how many transactions went into calcualtion of the median. It isn't hard to go to the FHA web site and find recent mortgaee letters that explain how this calcualtion was done in prior years. It looks like these medians are based on HUD CHUMS data. I believ CHUMS or CHUM is the automated underwriting and reporting system used for HUD loans. I assume the process is still the same. You can download the file for all counties inthe country if you like.
doesn't anybody around here work at HUD?
here's another one: Baltimore's median price used for the new limit is $448K, while NAR says the median is $291K. wtf?
a) I don't think they used NAR medians, I believe OFHEO provided the data.
b) FIPS code 12580 - "Baltimore-Towson MSA" consists of the counties of Baltimore, Baltimore City, Anne Arundel, Howard, Harford, Carroll, and Queen Anne's. Of these, the one county with the highest median price is used to compute the new limit for the entire MSA.
I don't know the area that well, but conceivably, Queen Anne County (pop.46,241) could be relatively posh - with a median price of $359k. 125% of that is $448k. Threfore the entire MSA (pop. 2,658,405) gets the limit set at $448k. Yes, if you think this is a tad f*cked up - it is.
This wouldn't explain the Athens MSA question, however, since that MSA consists of a single county.
I still haven't figured out the Athens thing. The bad news is I think someone made a boo-boo. The good news is only about 5 households in Athens County will be able to take advantage of it.
a) I don't think they used NAR medians, I believe OFHEO provided the data.
yeah, i was just pointing out how big the difference is between the data they used and the NAR data.
It looks like these medians are based on HUD CHUMS data. I believ CHUMS or CHUM is the automated underwriting and reporting system used for HUD loans
That just isn't possible.
If HUD used a database of prices associated with loans with FHA insurance, they would always come up with a much smaller number than NAR or anyone else, since that database is selected for the lowest-end properties.
As far as I can tell, they got data from NAR, OFHEO, MIRS (FHFB), and who knows where else, and picked out a number they liked.
As far as I can tell, they got data from NAR, OFHEO, MIRS (FHFB), and who knows where else, and picked out a number they liked.
= max()
The good news is only about 5 households in Athens County will be able to take advantage of it.
Which wouldn't worry me except if it turns out that one of those 5 households is one of Alphonso Jackson's golfing buddies.
As far as I can tell, they got data from NAR, OFHEO, MIRS (FHFB), and who knows where else, and picked out a number they liked.
=max()
oh go fork yourself, haloscan.
Occam's Razor might suggest this really was supposed to be Athens Ga, notwithstanding all of the great detective work.
Having worked for the government for 14 years it's always amazing how anything gets completed with any degree of accuracy.
I was trying to find where this development was on a location map.
If you compare the UV map with the Google map for Athen, OH (using the satellite option), you'll see that the development is located north of Athens, toward the west end of town. The oval shaped (stadium?) artifact is evident in both views and gives an excellent anchorage point in comparing the two views.
I just ran a query on Athens, OH and there were some observations from Ventura, CA mixed in. It got me to thinking this might have to do with the ol' garbage-in garbage-out.
Athens, OH didn't exist as an MSA before the new CBSA definitions came out, which was in 2003, I think. The old MSA codes were 4 digits. Believe it or not, but five years on, there are some legacy systems that still haven't been upgraded to report the new 5-digit FIP codes, so some still use the old MSA codes. Which has two effects - it further limits an already very limited number of observations in tiny markets like Athens, and it opens up the possibility for bad data to be mixed in as a result of truncation, or incorrect data mapping. I can't say for sure that's to blame here, but it wouldn't surprise me if it had something to do with it.
...And you couldn't ever do second homes in FHA without lying about it.
But you can do a kiddie condo. List the student as the occupant borrower even if they don't have any income and the parent as the non-occupant borrower.
"bacon dreamz writes:
oh go fork yourself, haloscan.
bacon dreamz | 03.12.08 - 10:19
bacon dreamz wins the today's prize for best commenting while drinking too many after-breakfast bloody marys!
Athens, OH didn't exist as an MSA before the new CBSA definitions came out, which was in 2003, I think.
I think you are correct. I downloaded the Census Bureau tables and got for this county:
FIPS 39009
CBSA_2003: 11900
No "priors" (No CB MSA designation in 1999)
Geocoding has never been my specialty, but how the hell could you get Ventura, CA in there? Even if you just messed up the prefixes, Ventura is 06111/37100. Not close.
Occam's Razor might suggest this really was supposed to be Athens Ga, notwithstanding all of the great detective work.
Well, but Tanta's Corollary to Occam's Razor suggests that if this were true, the realty/mortgage/political establishment in Athens GA would be screaming bloody murder if they had any expectation that they would have been on the list.
So far I haven't heard any of that, if it's going on.
Well, I know I am correct about Athens being a 'new' MSA, I just don't know exactly when it 'officially' took effect.
As far as how the hell the Ventura loans got in there...I have no idea.
Do second homes get sold more frequently than primary homes? I'm seeing a lot of ski resort counties on that list...all CA ski resort areas are covered, and NV's only listed area includes Stateline (Tahoe).
I'm stunned to see Salt Lake with the same limits as coastal California, and Salt Lake City's big enough that I can't see how Park City, etc., drives the average value that high. But if second homes are sold more frequently then maybe ski resort towns can disproportionately impact their county's sales prices.
freddie's conforming-jumbo stuff is out:
404 File Not Found - Freddie Mac
Do second homes get sold more frequently than primary homes?
In general? No.
But in many markets high-end homes keep selling even while low-end homes don't. So in a market with expensive second homes, you can find second homes impacting median prices.
freddie's conforming-jumbo stuff is out:
I'm already on it. (For once.)
When downloading the HUD data from Unable to locate requested information the following is the file description:
"This file represents the layout of the loan-limit data files made publicly available through the hud.gov web site. There are three data files: one for FHA Single Family, one for FHA HECM, and one for GSE loans (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). These data files represent the records resident in HUDs master file of county-level loan limits. Median prices provided in the data files are the values used to calculate the various loan limits, and may not represent actual home prices in any respective county. For an explanation of HUDs methodology in determining applicable median prices and calculating loan limits, see HUD Median Price Estimates.
The loan limits found in the associated data files are applicable for the timeframes outlined in the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. This file will only be updated if HUD determines, in response to an appropriately filed appeal (see Mortgagee Letter 2008-06), that there is sufficient justification to change its initial determination of the appropriate median price for any given county."
You may says this isn't possible but I believe it is more likely that this is HUD data (or an error within that CHUM) than some conspiracy or Athens GA error. HUD did this so quickly. Is it reasonable to expect they could have made the kind of arbitrary adjustemnts that you describe for more 3,000 counties in the US including obscure ones like Athens Co Ohio in such a short time. Conspriracies take more time than that. Somehow HUD data is showing a 346,000 median price for this county. I have actually emailed the sfadmin for an expalanation earlier this week for our part of the country but was referrred to the regional HUD homeownership center. I have not heard back from them.
The median price is not reflective of the market in Athens OH because there are two distinct markets there. One, old decrepit or borderline homes from 30k-150k, and recent custom homes built just outside the city on newly developed ridge-lines, built for 250-600k. 5 years ago OU was having a hiring frenzy trying to attract well-funded senior investigators, most of whom still had to take a pay-cut to come to Athens. This hiring frenzy has turned into a hiring freeze as the new president has against the wishes of the faculty focused on increasing the student population to increase tuition funds as opposed to going for grant money and prestige. (given the inflation-adjusted decrease in federal research money, that's not such a bad plan). My parents moved there in 2001, and built a very modest house (relative to their neighbors) for $260k because there simply wasn't anything they could buy in the existing homes market. My mom is now needing to sell at this juncture, and while buyers on her house won't need a jumbo loan (assuming only inflation price-increases), they will on all her neighbors houses, so I for one salute HUD or whomever for potentially keeping up the home prices on the huge mansions on the hillsides around her, so that she might not take too bad a of a hit on her own.
Phaedrus, I understood you to be suggesting that the median price data came from HUD's underwriting datafiles. I was observing that that's hardly likely.
Of course the data they are manipulating is in their own databases. CHUMS is just the portal for getting to it. However, that data originates from another source, is what we're all saying.
Of course HUD shows the median for this county as $346,000. That's why they calculated its new loan limit as 125% of that.
My question is how they arrived at $346,000.
I live 5 miles southeast of Athens, Ohio and work in the building industry in Columbus.
I can't answer the question, but the county is extremely diverse.
The northwestern and eastern parts are fairly low income.
The areas around Athens proper are mid-high income. Not a lot of McMansions, but quite a few good quality older ones along with some well-designed newer homes.
Property in the city itself runs high, and is at a premium. Fairly high tax rates, fairly constrictive property laws, combined with a LOT of rental property.
Insular economy. Captive consumers. Gas prices usually quite a bit higher than the surrounding counties.
Few houses for sale, mostly lots. Land is more expensive than the other counties surrounding. Especially closer to the town.
The University development is mostly a failure. It was planned as a larger group of McMansions on a hill west of Athens, but there are very few lots sold. The chemical run-off from the development and golf course has caused some problems.
Oh, and like the other Athens, we have a killer music scene.
maybe HUD is just corrupt did you see this from the NYTimes editorial blog?
Your Federal Housing Dollars at Work - The Board Blog - NYTimes.com
The University development is mostly a failure. It was planned as a larger group of McMansions on a hill west of Athens, but there are very few lots sold. The chemical run-off from the development and golf course has caused some problems.
Thanks for the update - I figured as much. Very few related home sales. Project appears to have stalled. And the University Credit Union is pushing a "University Estate Mortgage Loans" package - "ARM rates apply until project approved by Fannie Mae".
I also see quite a bit of backlash to the project on the part of local environmental groups. So the question remains - how did this area qualify for GSE jumbo status? Accident? Faulty math? Politics?. The bigger question is how prevalent is the practice of targeting specific locals for 'out of bounds' home evaluations?
Could it be that Dow Chemical (plant just outside of Parkersberg,WV and across the river from this county)
is ramping up some production? Hiring engineers & tech types, high wages & big houses? (google maps Washington,WV)
There is an alternative energy plant associated with OU planned for Meigs County, and while it's a different county, I understand that a lot of the employees will be with the university also. But I think that's only 115 jobs, all tech.
I'm more inclined to think the whole thing is an accident.
I think those of us who live in Athens County, while we want better available jobs, we'druther outsiders just stay out. It's an educated area, but countrified, fairly isolated, and we like it like that.
"Alo writes:
Think it might be politics too -
dem just got elected sheriff narrowly over repub -- obama too athens city, but hillary took rural areas..."
Both sheriff candidates were Dem. As of last election, I think there is one 'pub official... County Auditor, which makes sense.
Hopefully it's not too late to contribute to this UberNerd thread. Having become pretty familiar with county deed search engines (mainly Wayne County, Michigan), I ran some queries against the Advanced Search site.
Here's the first search I did, under the "Advanced" tab. (All other settings are default.)
Sale Date between 01/01/2007 and 12/31/2007
Sale Price between 10 and 100000000
Land Use: 510,511,512,513,514,550,560,561,569 (Single Family Residential/Condo/Mobile Home)
= 679 Results
So, this should be roughly the total number of home sales for 2007. I used a $10 minimum price so any $0/$1 quit-claim deeds don't show up. Now the next search:
Sale Price between 10 and 346000, other criteria same
= 660 Results
There were 660 homes sold for $346,000 or less, which is way more than half the total number of homes sold (679), so $346,000 must be too high for a median price. After trying some lower numbers for the search, I came up with:
Sale Price between 10 and 89000, other criteria same
= 339 Results (half of 679)
So, from this records search, it would appear that the median sale price in Athens County during 2007 is around $89,000. This is not too far off of the $111,891 average home sale price from the Ohio Association of Realtors. (given that average price is usually a bit higher than median) Granted, I might not have the Land Use criteria set exactly right, but the outcome doesn't change that much when I try different settings, for example if I just search for land use zone 510, the median is $82,000. Nothing I do takes it anywhere near $346,000.
I think this comes fairly close to showing that the HUD data is wrong. Somebody needs to call the folks at HUD and knock some heads.
There is nothing conclusive in this document about our anomaly, but it is a good read.
It does point out that Ohio has been working on doing what they can with the foreclosure problem and that might play into why Athens is an interesting data point.
"Ooh-ooh-ooooh!"
Horshack from Welcome back Kotter
google me this:
foreclosure + prevention + task + force
http://www.com.state.oh.us/admn/pub/FinalReport.pdf
page 18
c. Work with HUD to promote refinance options using FHA loans. On August 31, President Bush announced a new FHASecure plan, to allow families with strong credit histories who had been making timely mortgage payments before their loans resetbut are now in defaultto qualify for refinancing.
d. Encourage prime lenders to offer flexible, affordable refinance loans utilizing resources of the Federal Home Loan Bank, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as their own portfolio lending products.
Hmmm
Old limits for Athens from
FHA Loan Limits for OHIO
County Name \tSingle Family \tDuplex \tTri-plex \tFour-plex
ATHENS \t$200,160 \t$256,248 \t$309,744 \t$384,936
ATHENS, OH (MICRO)