The $10 Trillion Man?

You mean $9.397 trillion but not $9,397 trillion, right?

If I were you CR, I'd double down on that bet. I have complete "faith" in our monkey in chief to spend like a drunken sailor straight through 10T and beyond.

sell bonds. I cant believe the chinese keep buying these things. They must be retarded.

jin, yes, of course, we are talking trillions here! I changed the comma to a period.

Kp, I suspect that Bush will pull out the stops next January to keep spending down (with administrative tricks) - and pass the bill on to Obama (or McCain). Otherwise, $10 trillion looks like a solid bet.

Best Wishes.

Helen Thomas: "Mister President, the idea of raising taxes in the face of the worst recession this country has seen in almost 75 years strikes many as incredibly counterproductive. How can you propose a tax increase in the face of the numbers coming out of Wall Street?"

Obama: "That's a great question, Helen. It's like this- the tax increase is primarily aimed at stimulating economic growth inside our country. We're going to put an extra tax on companies that decide to farm out jobs offshore. We're going to close the loophole on American-based companies that keep their bank accounts offshore. And we're going to put an extra tax on new cars that get less than 30 miles to the gallon. We want our citizens to know that we plan on balancing the budget this year, and we plan on starting to pay off the borderline-criminal national debt. That change needs to start at home. Thanks, Helen, next question please."

"Bush’s solution? “Go shopping more.”" (Source - Page not found - ThinkProgress

Shopping, spending, standard operating Bush procedure.

It needs to be said;
WORST PRESIDENT EVER!

New all time low on the Dollar.

WOW$ 

How can he keep spending down if he plans to keep the Iraq invasion going on? Things are deteriorating there.

Also, although it cannot be calculated, there is an opportunity cost to Bush's two terms as well. We haven't fixed infrastructure, increased competitiveness, cleaned up the environment, chipped away at entitlements deficits. All that money was heaped on the pavements in Iraq and had a match tossed on it to burn. 8 years of waste.

"Four things come not back again : the spoken word, the sped arrow, the past life and the neglected opportunity."

Put a fork in this pig.

If I had to pick between reasonable regulation in either banking or cutting your grass I believe it is obvious which is the more serious matter.

sell bonds. I cant believe the chinese keep buying these things. They must be retarded.

The Chinese, for the amount of their losses, are buying Taiwan.

Or, to put it in another way, the US is selling Taiwan off, bit by bit.

Actually, if we are planning on having a huge stagflationary bust, you might just as well spend it. I am guessing that wall street will fail to return this years inflation rate, as will tbonds, as will just about anything dollar based, unless you count the lottery.

Tie this in with the previous posts on MEW, and the Fed gov't is going to provide enough stimulation to keep the ball rolling for quite a while.

After all, buying off half of iraq to get sufficient peace to get the heck outta there is going to be expensive- followed by just about everything else.

I was talking to an old friend about this mess, and he commented that you predicted this in college. I said, yes I did, but I thought it would take a lot longer to get to this stage. I thought I would have a lot longer to prepare. Oh well, reality is what you get.

$10 trillion with $5 owed to ss and medicare. So if we start selling those medicare tbonds, is that inflationary? I would say the money supply is then expanding handily.

The fed is just behind the curve- buy MBS and short tbonds!!!

All you get is dollars, which of course are worth less every year.

You just have to wait until the value of dollar plummets to match the value of the debt you owe;-}

Someday this war's gonna end...

president Bush won't be able to keep the number below 10 trillion.

here's why.

it's clear to all that the plan is to drop money and inflate our way out of the financial maelstrom.

since debt is nominal , not inflation adjusted, i bet the 10 trillion national debt mark will be exceeded on president Bush's watch.

by the way presidents Reagan and Bush 2 increased the national debt, in total dollars, more than all other administrations combined.

And the Bush Medicare prescription drug benefit added another $8 trillion to the entitlements unfunded liability.

Born on the Fourth of July | FreedomWorks

I don't believe the 10 trillion includes the present value of pension liabilities or promised prescription drug benefits.
We could just continue to roll over the 10 trillion. That would be about $4 a day for every person in the US.

"The Chinese, for the amount of their losses, are buying Taiwan.

Or, to put it in another way, the US is selling Taiwan off, bit by bit."

Polonius (neither a borrower nor a lender be, hah!), how is this taking place?

But you can't argue with results....

To be fair he inherited the first $5T of that. If you really want to get jiggy with the numbers the $10T he'll leave us with is probably worth about the same as the $5T he started with.

It might be prudent to figure in the associated costs of attacking Iran, which President Cheney is slavering to do before his term in the Oval Underground Bunker is finished.

The Deficit should break $10 trillion easily by October. The real deficit was already running in the $600 billion range. It looks like the recession will push it up into the $800B-1T mark.

Very few people can have this said about them: The world would be a substantially better place with you

No rational person can stand up for Bush...

[Ok; I feel better.... end of rant]

a trillion dollars

i am told...

one dollar placed edge to edge covering the entire surface of the 48 states, with no space left blank... stacked 23 dollars high!!!!!!!!!!

While Clinton and Obama want to spend an additional $1 to $1.5 trillion on top of the current budget.

Isn't socialism great. It's Free!

When will the projections top $100 Trillion?

But Prez McCain will deal with it by eliminating earmarks, all $18 billion of them or 0.6% of federal spending. Of course not all earmarks are total wastes like the bridge to nowhere, in a more open process probably 50% of them would be enacted so make that 0.012% of federal spending cut. Of course no journalist interviewing him ever has the balls to point this out and allows this crap to slide.

Does this include the roughly $2.5 trillion the GSE's, Fannie, Freddie, et.al, are on the hook for? As the Fed moves ever closer to explicitly guaranteeing their debt, shouldn't it, like Citi did w/ its SIV's, put their debt on its books, too?

When will the projections top $100 Trillion?

They won't. Confidence has been breaking down for several years, that's why gold & silver have risen steadily for the past 5 years.

I saw an article last night that for the first time, German bonds are trading at better interest rates than US treasuries.

It's very sad.
It could have been different.

good thing we spend $800 Billion a year on "defense" and another $150 Billion on our occupations.

As someone noted earlier, the Dollar Index has now taken out its pre-Fed-fueled-rally low (recently down 93 bps). Whether it's worries about the deficit ... rumblings of a dollar de-pegging in the Middle East ... or something else almost doesn't matter. The net effect is more upward pressure on commodities prices (How about that $110/barrel oil?) and import prices. I can't wait to see tomorrow's report on that front, by the way.

4 full stacks of 1 dollar bills from the surface of the earth to the surface of the Moon. Literally.

Helen Thomas: "Mister President, the idea of raising taxes in the face of the worst recession this country has seen in almost 75 years strikes many as incredibly counterproductive. How can you propose a tax increase in the face of the numbers coming out of Wall Street?"

Obama: "That's a great question, Helen. It's like this- the tax increase is primarily aimed at stimulating economic growth inside our country. We're going to put an extra tax on companies that decide to farm out jobs offshore. We're going to close the loophole on American-based companies that keep their bank accounts offshore. And we're going to put an extra tax on new cars that get less than 30 miles to the gallon. We want our citizens to know that we plan on balancing the budget this year, and we plan on starting to pay off the borderline-criminal national debt. That change needs to start at home. Thanks, Helen, next question please."

Helen Thomas: Well, Mr. President, if we heavily tax "American" companies that offshore low-skill jobs, won't they - and ALL their jobs - just move completely offshore? And if we heavily tax cars that consume too much fuel, won't that close down Detroit production lines and throw more Americans out of work? Meanwhile helping to employ South Korean, Japanese, and Chinese? Mr. President, do you have any ideas that would actually work in the real world? Oh, I forgot, you've never worked in the real world.

It's very sad.
It could have been different.
Broward Horne

Too bad someone didn't take FDR out to the woodshed

“A lot of people in America think there is a trust – that we take your money in payroll taxes and then we hold it for you, and then when you retire, we give it back to you….but that’s not the way it works. There is no trust fund – just IOUs.”

George W. Bush , University of West Virginia, April of 2005

Code word bend-over.

Helen Thomas: Where am I?
Other reporter: (whispered)It's a White House Press briefing, Helen.
Helen: Oh, Mr. President, when will you bring the troops home. I mean, Viet Nam is so far away.
President Obama: Yes, well, as I was saying, when I offer health care to ALL Americans, I can ASSURE you that we will operate the program with the same HIGH level of competency that you have become accustomed to in ALL federal programs. You can be assured that we will be FAR more cost effective than any of those evil "PRIVATE" corporations that try to earn a "PROFIT".

CR, it is impossible for the national debt to reach $10 trillion.

Federal law, under 31 USC 3101, limits the maximum possible national debt to $9,815,000,000,000.

So, as you see, a $10 trillion national debt would be illegal. I'm certain the treasury won't break the law on this.

We should all be thankful for the foresight of our legislators who put this wise and prudent limit in place.

Rob,

Do you seriously believe that inflation averaged 9% over the bush administration (implied by 50% loss of value over 8 years)? If so then we've been in a deep recession throughout the 2000's and real interest rates have been so low that even my credit card company is getting a negative rate of return when I carry a balance.

It's tough to say congrats on this one.

I do say that we should have a national holiday to party like it's
$999,999,999,999.99.

sorry drop a couple of 9's

Does this include the roughly $2.5 trillion the GSE's, Fannie, Freddie, et.al, are on the hook for?

The US government doesn't back Fannie or Freddie, what a silly idea.

Allow me to quote directly from a Fannie prospectus:

The SMBS certificates and the payments of principal or interest, as applicable, on the SMBS certificates are not guaranteed by the United States, and do not constitute a
debt or obligation of the United States or any of its agencies or instrumentalities other than
Fannie Mae.

Freddie notes carry a similar disclaimer. Anybody who bought Freddie or Fannie securities had it disclosed to them very clearly that there is no government backing, I can't imagine why anyone would think anything to the contrary. Wishful thinking I suppose.

ya....I remember in 1982, I think it was, the world's banks were technically insolvent due to lending to Third World Countries.

Curious thing is they came up with bridge loans to save the day. Anybody know if those bridge loans were repaid?

President Obama: Yes, well, as I was saying, when I offer health care to ALL Americans, I can ASSURE you that we will operate the program with the same HIGH level of competency that you have become accustomed to in ALL federal programs. You can be assured that we will be FAR more cost effective than any of those evil "PRIVATE" corporations that try to earn a "PROFIT".
Meltdown Man | 03.12.08 - 3:38 pm | #

Actually, I just realized, Bernacke is finally doing what has never been accomplished before: bringing socialists and capitalists together! He is using government money to buy and support "the capitalist system".

Finally, something we can all support and agree upon.

Karl Marx pointed out, "Public credit becomes the credo of capital. And with the rise of national debt making, lack of faith in the national debt takes the place of the sin against the Holy Ghost, for which there is no forgiveness." Since I don't believe in it, you can repay my share of the $10 trillion.

200 billion infusion = market up for 1 day. What a deal!!!!

BB, I want my pony now!

Finally, something we can all support and agree upon.

Unless you are short financials...but, if that were the case, it would require that the markets not be manipulated.

Since the topic is politics, it occurred to me today that we are at a turning point in economic thinking. The commenters on this blog are representative of 2 major schools of thought:

  1. We need to move toward the European economic model, with more social services such as universal health care.
  2. We need small government.

The small government group has been riding high since the days of Ronald Reagan, but those days are rapidly coming to an end, in my opinion. Europeans are better off than Americans these days.

For you libertarians, show me where your libertarianism works in practice.

Thank you, and good luck to us all...

I also remember the debt breaking a trillion also around 1982...maybe a year off.

Perhaps the pace is 100 trillion in 2033 if not earlier. The longer you have been off the gold standard the further out in the ocean you are.

Well, I am not exactly libertarian, but I'd say that less government socialism has worked out better for:

Hong Kong (China so far keeping their hands pretty well off)
Singapore (recently)
Korea
Japan

Hmmm... basically the growing economies. Now how could that be...

"The small government group has been riding high since the days of Ronald Reagan, but those days are rapidly coming to an end, in my opinion. Europeans are better off than Americans these days."

Detroit Dan,
Small government has never been practised in my lifetime. There were periods where it grew less than others, but it NEVER stagnated, let alone shrunk.

Rob,
Do you seriously believe that inflation averaged 9% over the bush administration (implied by 50% loss of value over 8 years)?

Rounding error. There was about $5.8T in debt at the start of Bush's first budget and looks to be $9.8T at the end of his last. A 69% increase in 8 years. That's a compounded 6.6% rate of inflation which, if anything, is lower than I'm willing to entertain.

Bruce writes:
200 billion infusion = market up for 1 day. What a deal!!!!

BB, I want my pony now!

Bruce, they handed out all the ponies they had yesterday. If you missed it that's your problem.

OriginalFrank,

You're preaching "less government" in the midst of a financial crisis that's at least partially due to lack of proper governmental control and regulation of the players in this field. Secondly, I don't know about the others, but in S. Korea, the government has an incestuous relationship with the business community, hardly a hands-off approach. Get real!

Well, the 1 day bull market is over.
Dow ~-46
Dollar trashed

200 billion infusion = market up for 1 day. What a deal!!!!

Emperor's Club promises to get it up for only $5,500... an hour

Original Frank:

Let's assume IBM decides to go 'foreign'. What would be the remedy for lost tax dollars, offshoring of jobs, increased pollution, workplace injuries, etc.?

Taxes and tariffs. Whether 'foreign' or 'American', corporations must pay if they wish to conduct business here in the States. Business can and should be penalized for engaging in activities that result in detriment to society and to the country. Laws, taxes and tariffs are routinely applied to these ends.

So I'm not sure I understand your point, really.

Gandalf,
I just started Atlas Shrugged...about a quarter of the way through...your discourse sounds amazingly similar...I can't wait to read the next chapter

I see all the Smoots and Hawleys are cropping up. It's like magic, isn't it?

The problem with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs was that other countries responded by raising tariffs of their own.

This time, Congress should stop that mistake from happening again. They should make it illegal for other countries to raise tariffs.

Problem. Solved.

@ OriginalFrank 3:29 pm:

So you are saying that if we don't kiss corporate arse they will go give live under Hu Jintao and raise their children to speak Chinese? Do you really believe this?

As to the oil or housing affect, oil is much worse. Since the losses in housing were spread to other countries there is some gain to factor in. Oil on the other hand, tranfers cash direct to your competitors. This is a much greater threat than whether J6P can get a HELOC.

Honestly, you need to pull $2T out of that $10T dollar number for money that the Government owes to itself (Social Security Trust Fund).

You also need to pull out another ~$1T for the "free" money that the Federal Reserve provides to the Government that serves as our monetary base (at least until BB started spending Treasuries like a drunken monkey).

That leaves about a ~7T dollar burden on the US economy or about 53% of GDP. How does that compare to other countries:

Japan: 182%
Germany: 67%
Great Britain: 42%
Italy: 107%
Belgium: 86%
China: 22%
Zimbabwe: 108%
Mexico: 20%
Canada: 65%

I'm guessing the tipping point for US public debt is around 1-1.5X GDP (13-20T) dollars. Beyond that creditors will start to demand much higher risk premiums because it will be nearly impossible to service the debt loads without printing.

BTW, I think Japan is very close to the edge. The bank of Japan has become very political. The threat of "normalizing" interest rates sets off howls of protest from the Government and appointments have become a political hot-potato.

The only thing that has saved the Yen so far is very high household savings rate and large reserves.

BB, I want my pony now!
Bruce | 03.12.08 - 3:51 pm | #

BB: "Sorry i gave all my ponies to the Bear of Sterns and he ate them."

Well Tanta your prediction is looking like it will hold:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government turned in a $175.56 billion budget deficit for February, a record for any month, as federal spending grew but a slowing economy caused receipts to fall 12.1 percent from a year earlier, the U.S. Treasury said on Wednesday.

Feb budget gap balloons to record $175.56 bln
| Reuters

I just started Atlas Shrugged...about a quarter of the way through...your discourse sounds amazingly similar...I can't wait to read the next chapter
Meltdown Man | 03.12.08 - 4:11 pm |

An entertaining read for sophmores. However, far from reality. Just remember that Alan Greenspan was one of Ayn Rand's biggest fans, and just look at how well that did in real life. Alan used to hang out with her like once a week until she croaked.

bZb writes:
OriginalFrank,

You're preaching "less government" in the midst of a financial crisis that's at least partially due to lack of proper governmental control and regulation of the players in this field.

** Actually, I am not preaching less government so much as suggesting that most government operations and program seem to produce more problems than they solve. Therefore they exacerbate and/or disguise the problems as the problems continue to grow.

** I do agree that effective government regulation of some business operations is a necessary evil. The question is always how much, and at what cost. Clearly we have had too little of the banking/mortgage/investment space since the repeal of Glass Seagal. That should be corrected. However, probably due to my vantage point that allows me observe many government functions at work, I am not optimistic about the effectiveness of any attempted corrective measure. Perhaps we have worked ourselves into a societial dead end like the late stage Romans who were too dissolute to effectively reform.

Secondly, I don't know about the others, but in S. Korea, the government has an incestuous relationship with the business community, hardly a hands-off approach. Get real!

** I was actually referring to the government/citizen relationship as less socialist than the US (and far less than the EU). I agree that the government/big business relationship has historically been quite intertwined.

Sam writes:
@ OriginalFrank 3:29 pm:

So you are saying that if we don't kiss corporate arse they will go give live under Hu Jintao and raise their children to speak Chinese? Do you really believe this?

** Err... I may be wrong but I believe there are many other attractive options than moving wholesale to China.

** I know I for one would not want to do to that -- it was hard enough for me to learn Chinese and my child is not at all interested.

Bush is hardly an example of limited government....he's the biggest spender since LBJ.

"Mission Accomplished!"

When you think about it, THEIR mission was accomplished - we're all going to be poor!

Gandalf writes:
Original Frank:

Let's assume IBM decides to go 'foreign'. What would be the remedy for lost tax dollars, offshoring of jobs, increased pollution, workplace injuries, etc.?
...
So I'm not sure I understand your point, really.

*** Think it over; it may come to you.

Heh, the idea that Japan is libertarian, or some kind of paragon of rapid growth is absurd. Particularly compared with The US.

Japan has universal health care. Japan has one of the most comprehensive public transit systems in the world. Japan has very extensive ties between big business and government. Japan is just now finally coming out of a decade long period of very slow growth.

Japan's total taxation as percent of gdp in 2000 was 27.1% vs the US 29.6%, our much larger military spending makes up that entire difference (our 3.7% vs their 1%).

Speaking of Randian rant's, this one may be a bit inflammatory, buckle up.

Smoking Mirrors

I see the wingnut prognosto-prevaricators are trashing Obama forward.

We have a solid set of track records to compare for the 50 years. You guys own large government, large deficits, and declining socio-economic health. With a few of incidents of treason (Nixon/Watergate/Iran-Contra/Valerie Plame) thrown in for good measure.

You are "Borrow and Spend" or "Steal and Spend" Republicans.

Obama will outspend Bush?

Says you.

I agree with Dirk van Dijk. The philosophy espoused in Atlas Shrugged is pretty juvenile stuff. It was an entertaining read. I get nauseated every time some asshat financier or overpaid CEO thinks he's Hank Reardon or John Galt. Give me a @#$%ing break. Like supply side economics, it's a free lunch philosophy that rationalizes unfettered greed.

I am sorry to inform the Randians that a strong cohesive society actually requires some personal sacrifice.

Sorry.

Umm, I'd like to clear up a common misconception.

Reagan took office in a climate of high taxes, extensive regulation, Cold War, and economic malaise.

Bush is an idiot.

I hope that helps.

"Mr. President, do you have any ideas that would actually work in the real world? Oh, I forgot, you've never worked in the real world.
OriginalFrank"

Apparently you are talking about Bush here. Or are you just another idiot hypocrite?

OriginalFrank:

Err... I may be wrong but I believe there are many other attractive options than moving wholesale to China.

Then why mention China:

Meanwhile helping to employ South Korean, Japanese, and Chinese?

Those were your words. Do you really think Japan and South Korea would let them into their market?

Let's assume IBM decides to go 'foreign'.

Well since there are military and national security issues if such a move was even pondered, just how do you suppose that will be resolved?

Think it over; it may come to you.

Well, I am not exactly libertarian, but I'd say that less government socialism has worked out better for:

Hong Kong (China so far keeping their hands pretty well off)
Singapore (recently)
Korea
Japan

All those countries have universal national health insurance. All 4 are different, but Japan has a system pretty similar to Clinton's proposal. Do you research before you rant?

Sam, you are conflating different things.

  1. yes, China, Korea and Japan will benefit if we decide to heavily tax cars with lower mileage. That is not much related to where relocating US companies might go. There are many Caribbean locations, for example, that would no doubt be pleased to pick up world HQ for global companies.
  2. Let's assume IBM decides to go 'foreign'. Well since there are military and national security issues if such a move was even pondered, just how do you suppose that will be resolved?

Wasn't my hypothetical, nor did I answer. Too vague, too many possibliities, and I am too short on bits.

Sorry, Fair, I am only personally acquainted with China's and HK's health care systems.

If you believe that those are actually health insurance, please visit!

More directly responding to your note, I referenced overall government socialism vis-a-vis the citizen, not specifically health care. The US (and EU, again) far outspend these countrys in social transfer payments.

Do you read before you rant?

OriginalFrank, your comments were directed at Obama's healthcare proposals, not his nonexistent proposals for increased transfer payments. It's a simple and straightforward fact that every other industrialized country has some form of government-mandated and subsidized health insurance, and every one spends less than we do but has better life expectancy. If you've got some beef with Obama's plan (which is close to Germany's or Japan's) please present them. For starters, please explain why the US will have problems with a system repeatedly shown superior to our current one. You will find your arguments more convincing if the countries you cite as not having national healthcare actually don't.

raising the gas guzzler tax on new vehicles to 24-28 mpg might not be a horrible idea...then just add a gradually increasing tax for used cars that starts at a low number and rises as the used car ages...eventually the inefficient vehicles will be forced off the roads...not sure about anyone else, but few things piss me off more than getting behind some piece of trash in a black-smoke-belching hoopty...

certainly for those that bought SUVs and the like and financed the 40-60k for them, it wouldn't be much of a hit...just roll it into the loan and pass a little more cash the lender's way...

there will be some stimulation of the efficient car market, but a great deal of that manufacturing is here anyway...

not sure i really see the problem...

They are busy raising money for his library here in Dallas (most expensive yet). You can send the money to me if you want to make a contribution. It is confidential.

Ten trillion? No sweat.

Cheney has gotten rid of that problem. Deficits don't matter nor does the debt. You just write it off or down or devalue the currency and then it just kinda goes away, right? Anyhoo we can sell out to the Chinese if it gets really bad. That's why they are saving, right? To buy us out when the time comes.

Well at least we know global warming is a liberal myth ....

"OriginalFrank, your comments were directed at Obama's healthcare proposals, not his nonexistent proposals for increased transfer payments"

No they weren't - they were addresing his non-existent plan to tax gas guzzlers and tax US companies that offshore work. You are thinking of someone else's comments.

"every one spends less than we do but has better life expectancy"

My understanding is that life expectancy is heavily influenced by lifestyle choices that are beyond the reach of government healthcare bureaucracies, unless they begin legally enforcing daily exercise, preventing unhealthy food choices, etc. So I don't put much faith in any significant correlation between socialized medicine and life expectancy.

"If you've got some beef with Obama's plan (which is close to Germany's or Japan's) please present them. For starters, please explain why the US will have problems with a system repeatedly shown superior to our current one".

"Superior" is an opinion. Based on my reading, moving to socialized medicine simply exchanges one set of problems for another. For example, exchanging Insurance bureaucrats with government bureaucrats. Personally, I'd rather have neither involved in my medical care. I do see potential benefits in a broader universal health care coverage arrangement, but putting it into the hands of government strikes me as the wrong direction. Think Katrina response -- now apply that level of organization and effectiveness to your cancer operation.

It is amusing to see that the seemingly intelligent posters here can still be blinded by an ideology that is bringing our country down around our ears even as we speak. I have always found it hard to believe - much less understand - the hatred FDR engendered as he saved the country from similar stupidity.

I have heard Carter's "malaise" mentioned. No mention of the cause: having the guts to stand by Volker while he saved the dollar from the disastrous deficits of the Nixon/Ford years. The last balanced budgets both occurred under Democrats - Clinton and Truman. Nixon - master of the big lie - claimed a balanced budget one year with every accounting trick in the book, including illegally impounding funds and running record deficits in the previous and successive years.

Clinton's balanced budgets actually involved retiring debt.

When I see this kind of ideo-illogic posted on a site by (I presume) mortgage industry insiders, it becomes clearer to me exactly how we got into this mess.

Some people believe exactly what they want to believe despite all evidence to the contrary and no mater how ridiculous it makes them look.

Nation’s Largest Baking Companies March On Washington

Nation's Largest Baking Companies March On Washington | BarterNewsBlog.com - Barter, Indirect Barter, Business-to-business Barter, Barter Companies, Entrepreneurship, Commercial Barter Industry, Multilateral Barter

So as Americans enjoy their favorite breads, pastas and pastries,
the price is on the way up as the baking industry adjusts to wheat
price shocks. According to the USDA, the price of a bushel of wheat
in February, 2007 was $4.71 which rose to $10.40 in February, 2008
for a 220 percent increase. Durum wheat, used for pastas, went from
$5.16 per bushel in February 2007 to $16.40 in February 2008, a 317
percent increase.

“As these prices squeeze margins for bakers, America’s baking
industry is getting ready to stage a major food-related demonstration,
calling it the ‘Band of Bakers March on Washington.’”

Anyone wanna guess at a long-term Treasury short position in some Bush dynasty accounts in Switz, Cayman, or, DUM-DA-DUM, PARAGUAY? (ok, ok, i'm trying to put too much together in one spot)

But, hey, someone had those still-"untraceable" puts on AA and UA the week before 9/11. Is there a pattern here?

It's so much easier to DESTROY a financial entity, than it is to build up value. And the side bets can be just as good, either way, actually faster on the way down.

Wouldn't put it past them, betting on a sure thing, when they've got their hands on the market scales of US Treasury worth.

Revenue down, expeditures up, SHORT those bonds!

The United States of Enron, SPV...
.
.

Related counter point: The Net Domestic Product (NDP) equals the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) minus depreciation on a country's Capital (economics) goods. This is an estimate of how much the country has to spend to maintain the current GDP. If the country is not able to replace the capital stock lost through depreciation, then GDP will fall. In addition, a growing gap between GDP and NDP indicates increasing obsolescence of capital goods, while a narrowing gap would mean that the condition of capital stock in the country is impro

"The US government doesn't back Fannie or Freddie, what a silly idea."

WideEyedChild,

I think (hope) that's a stab at sarcasm?

The Fed is even now trading treasuries for MBS from everyone but the GSE's--claiming they don't want the impression that they back the GSE's, yet apparently not minding the impression that they are a lender of last resort for Bear Stearns.

And surely you don't mean to think words in a prospectus matter a whit? For heaven's sake the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve publicly announced the other day that banks should just write/cram down mortgage debt for folks that are underwater in their homes. The words in those loan documents matter about as much as the words in a Fannie prospectus.

You see, Fannie and Freddie, et al., are pretty much the only players in the mortgage game right now. Of course the Fed wouldn't let them fail. It would be political and economic suicide. And if the Fed wouldn't let them fail, then their debt is really federal government debt. It should be added to the debt tally.

You mean $9.397 trillion but not $9,397 trillion, right?
Spending too much time listening to them furriners have you? (European practice is to use a comma for a decimal point rather than a period)

The small government group has been riding high since the days of Ronald Reagan, but those days are rapidly coming to an end, in my opinion. Europeans are better off than Americans these days.

Naah, small government policies got kicked out with David Stockman. All we get is small government platitudes.

Shorter Original Frank: Rush Limbaugh says, so it must be true.

I really wish you guys were wrong sometimes.

I have not read all the posts so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

Isn't is customary to compare administrations' performance by lagging the data one year so that it compares each administration to the year in which its budget was passed?
I think this is the case, in which Bush should be judged on FY 2002 through FY 2009, in which case the $10 trillion man just might actually occur.

JRL.

Republican ace in the hole?

WAR
(forget about debt when you can steal resources and markets). With the fall of the soviet union, the post wwII expansion ended. The markets conquered in the cold war are homogenizing labor and production costs - and thinly spreading western style goods and services across the globe. If the US wants to restore its cold war economic hegemony, conquest is the only answer - the neocon answer.

and McCain's the heir apparent.

The point of "Atlas Shrugged" was that beaucracy becomes corrupt, which drives out all productive actors, via various forms of political and economic rent seeking....Rand was speaking of the USSR from direct experience, but does it sound a shade familiar to us here in the US? At some point, the rent seeking extraction is so large that further participation in the system offers no further gain for the individual. Again, is this starting to sound familiar? Employment participation rate, anyone?
Wall Street Bonuses versus Real Wage gains, anyone? Black markets creep up outside the main system, as real economic activity seeks to avoid the rent seekers to eek out a living, while rent seekers attempt to clamp down on uncontrollable/rent-free economically profitable activities...Sound familiar? 1 in 100 Americans in prison, not all for violence?

There was no real solution to that problem in the book -- the title and content suggested that the only solution was to walk away from the economic system when further individual participation is a net loss. Some would
say glod prices are a measure of folks
walking away from the current economic system....

My dad always used to say "the bad drives out the good"....I'm getting his meaning a bit more every day.

Walking away from the system seems like a pretty expensive reset, compared to fixing what's wrong (free lunch crowd), but maybe we just don't have enough of the right kinds of minds in the right positions of power to avoid what Jared Diamond has described...

We have met the enemy, and it is us.

The point of the book is that industrialists are noble creators and that unions, regulators, progressives in general and anyone who stands in their way is whiny, gutless, dishonest and evil. The characters are caricatures and the book could have greatly befitted from a truly ruthless editor.

There is one basic truth in the book - that innovation can be good - with the subtext that powerful forces will stand in opposition of upsetting their applecart. Other than that, Atlas is the sheerest propaganda.

The Soviet Union was not socialism, it was state capitalism (everybody existed for the benefit of the state). Actual socialism does exist - in the Scandinavian countries and to a lesser extent in Europe as a whole. With a healthy mix of capitalism, it works very well.

Unrestrained capitalism leads to oligarchic dictatorship and societal stagnation - as in the Latin American countries - now us.

The collectivist crap of the Communists never worked anywhere - but neither has Randian capitalism - except, in both cases, for the elites.

UnEasyOne -- not sure who said the soviet union was socialism -- must be responding to someone other than me?

I agree about the need for a ruthless editor, btw, but Rand did not describe any (large scale) working alternative, capitalistic or not...certainly nothing that could work on a large enough scale to matter even in olden days...she described how innovators would escape rent seekers. Nothing more. That was the whole point of "shrugged"....it described how rent seeking always fails. It was a 1957 prediction that the USSR would eventually fall, and a warning that economies should not organize that way if they expect to survive long term

Incidentally, I suspect most folks misinterpret Rand BECAUSE she needed a ruthless editor...I think people bail out early and rely on other folk's interpretations.

Rand was a windbag.
Apparently horny, and maybe a little S&M ish.

But her point was rent seeking economies will implode, because innovators will shrug and walk if there is no individual incentive.

When I referred to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics as not being socialist, I was only establishing a baseline for discussion - not arguing with you.

Excuse my ignorance, but I'm not at all sure what you mean by "rent seeking."

If Rand's point was that removal of ALL incentive (per the USSR) is inherently flawed, she wouldn't have been so controversial.

As I read the book, Rand was asserting that any regulation or progressivism was the precursor to descent into collectivist hell. Her followers in the government (Greenspan) seem to have had the same idea.

UnEasyOne - ah.......I see....you've got to remember that AT THE TIME SHE WROTE IT, that was a controversial argument. The USSR was considered a viable system, and a competitor.

Now, after the fall of the USSR, it's probably easy to forget that reality, and thus go searching for a reason because the primary argument is now moot: the USSR did fall.

Actually, in the early seventies, when I first read the book - and Greenspan was Chairman of Nixon's Council of Economic Advisers, the absence of incentive in the communist system couldn't have been less controversial. Even as a leftest/antiwar activist, I met exactly one Maoist (memorable because when I completely trashed his feeble arguments he would scream DUMMY!! repeatedly while whatever audience we had laughed). When the book was written (1957) the country wasn't exactly in the throes of leftist/pro-communist revolution. The only controversy was whether McCarthy should have been stopped sooner, or loyalty oaths should be more prevalent. Nixon had recently risen to prominence by accusing his opponents of communist tendencies, and was soon to narrowly lose the presidency - to a more liberal anti-communist.

In fact, it was later established that, were it not for dues paid by undercover FBI agents, the American Communist Party would have been insolvent and shriveled away for lack of interest.

In any case, if you actually read the book you will see that it is as I described - an attack on liberalism, unionism and progressivism in general. It begins with a situation not so unlike ours and as the liberals gain mote and more control (as "Atlas" shrugs) descends into the aforementioned collectivist hell.

I agree that it is important to understand the difference between the "unified budget deficit" and the General Fund deficit. In the graph at http://usbudget.blogspot.com/2008/02/actual-numbers-and-sources-can-be-seen.html, you can see the difference between the unified budget deficit (in purple) and the General Fund deficit or "gross deficit" (in red). This latter deficit includes all of the monies being borrowed from the trust funds, chiefly Social Security. These will need to be repaid and need to be counted to get an accurate view of our financial state. In fact, we should also be looking at the budget's long-run budget projections, shown at http://usbudget.blogspot.com/2008/02/long-run-budget-projections.html.

UnEasyOne - I did read it. We'll have to agree to disagree, I guess.

"sell bonds. I cant believe the chinese keep buying these things. They must be retarded"

They modernized a country by buying up our ink & paper bonds with their ink & paper money. They sold us a bunch of junk but now they have developed the infrastructure to be a first world power. If I were them I would be building up their military & navy now that US consumer is going in the tank.

I'm convinced that we have no intention of paying off that debt. When Cheney says with such certainty that they will be vindicated for Iraq in 30 years this is what he means. We are in Iraq and trying to get into Iran, because physical control of oil will be the only economic asset we will have once we default on our debt. We have no production, and with credit dried up we aren't much of a market anymore. Our greatest assets are weapons of war, and they aren't a viable basis for trade for the obvious downside risk. Economic depression was a necessary condition that allowed Hitler to rise to power, and look what he convinced an otherwise rational population to do. I would argue that our population here is far more easily manipulated, and the propaganda machine here is much greater than Hitler could have ever dreamed of. Convincing us to go into Iran might not be so tough.

We'll be lucky if that doesn't blow up by another few hundred billion due to our fallacious wars in the middle east, or hey, maybe Double Dubya will get his birthday wish and invade Iran or some other country and rack us up for another few trillion in debt. Even if we don't hit $10T by Jan 19th, 2009, W's effects will be felt for an entire generation.

Double Dubya doubled the Debt, slurped up the surplus to destroy us with deficit. No sane woman or man should want to be President after this guy, because they're going to be compared very unfavorably to FDR in their attempts to save us. FDR helped the people, and invented political polling to guide the democracy. Modern day politicos help the money, and ignore political polling because they think they should be President-Dictators like Dubya has set a precedent for.

I'll honestly be shocked to see America recover from Dubya's Destruction in my lifetime, which should be at least another 79 years.

Didn't progressivism win? I mean, we have laws against housing, job, public space discrimination. We still expect a fair day in court, despite the income levels of the participants. Some right now don't get one, but we expect it as the norm. We expect public schools to be free and free of religious teaching. We intervene when parents are violent with their own children, in their own homes. We expect our city-distributed water to be clean and drinkable. I could go on and on here...

Progressivism is everywhere and nearly all of it is taken for granted as the norm by the majority of Americans. None of these things were expected in the past, progressives put them in place.

Steps to ruin an economy:

1) Cut taxes
2) Start a war
3) Increase domestic spending

DOO, debt explodes, the dollar tanks and the Republicans refuse to take any responsibility. But when debts don't matter, and you believe in higher powers like "the free market", or devine intervention telling us to pre-emptively invade another country, you don't have to take responsibility for anything.

Party on, the economy is toast. Short those bonds, keep the invasion going and watch what will happen.

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