Once the Bank of England had gone off the gold standard in September 1931, what was the point in raising rates to defend the pound? Or, whatever happened to "beggar thy neighbor?"
Anyway, in the modern era I doubt the Fed cares as much about the dollar as keeping the financial system from melting down into a charred carcass of mortgage bonds. Ok, so the collapsing dollar is ever-so-slightly inflationary and the Fed does care about THAT, but if they have to choose between the banks and inflation they'll choose . . . . . BANKS.
No worries here. Mild recession? Been there done that....Hard landing? Fugggetaboutit, as you never have to land at all if you never took off in the first place.
The market has now bottomed from the recession that we never had...Printing money has always proved to be the end-all.
Lets not pick on Ben too much. Sure, he has no spine. But lets not forget that Al Greenspan was the architect of this debacle by continually encouraging speculation via the "Greenspan Put."
Imagine if LTCM failed hard, rather than the collusional bailout. Don't you think the Street would have implemented better risk controls than they actually did?
I say old chap, the sun never sets on the American Empire, until it does.
Um, TLT puts looking good to me soon.
On the other hand, look at that homebuilder rally today!!!
BWII dying is seriously bad mojo. Of course, the only folks who have spent much time contemplating its demise are the tinfoil crowd here.
Well, as a closet member, I have long acknowledged the possibility of the failure, but I had always assumed it would arrive contemporaneous with the peak in baby boomer retirements in twelve years. Ah well, stuff happens.
Now, let's all just put the genie back in the bottle...or the G7 will be a managed dollar decimation club.
It still gets back to the fact that we have consumed more than we produced and paid for it with debt. There is no way out but lower consumption. Put the baby boomer costs on top of this and it will be a long dark winter, I wish I could believe other wise but what is, is.
dont forget you are all heavyli armed in the USA.. well that will bring in future revenues from Tourist who will enjoy the cheap Dollar... talk about freakonomics...
When they make the movie Danny Devito will play the Bernanke role, great, I say. I don't remember Devito being in anything lately. And Bush will play Greenspan; Bush is a great actor. He hams it up and the press laughs and laughs. Then they go over to McCain's for bbq. Donald Trump will play himself, he'll get a cameo playing one of the few billionaire chumps.
The good news is the United States is lucky. We've picked the right time to have a dollar crisis right in the lead up to the Beijing Olympics. The Chinese should be ready to play ball with our Duke of Goldman Snatch & Secretary of the Treasury Paulson and our Fed, anything is open to suggestion in order to have a smooth Olympics. If we need to sell another week's worth of $100 bil in bonds, hit up Beijing first. It'll all be paid back spiritually when Bush attends the Games.
isnt the Bush visit a treath to the Olympics?? they possible need 2 million soldiers for security and empty Stadiums at such too...and just screened US Athletes.( undercover CIA agents)
the Chinese possible thinking hard to uninvite the Bozo politely...may buy getting rid of BW 2? bush would surely stay home as penalty...
Kasriel, Jim Grant, Roubini, and maybe this guy Wilbur Ross should be the central planners running our Fed. In science fiction mode we would not be where we are today, we would have steady growth but no boom, and probably more partial to warm clothes in Winter and domestic vacations rather than sending the kids to be hussies in Alcapone, Mexico.
Just cause a couple of over-valued things are falling in price does not mean there is deflation. Inflation, big time, all the way.
The amazing thing - again - is that we have a ringside seat to what's occurring. And it won't even go for a long period.
Sorry, but I'm a history freak. Those books will be relatively cheap entertainmente as I sit in my frayed circa 1999 chair, breathing fogged breath into the chill of the room, decorated by peeling wallpaper and a non-functional flat-screen TV.
The only good thing is that perhaps we
'll see posters akin to England in 1974 advocating that a good way to save energy is to bathe together.
áre there women involved in energy saving?? and would it be legal for the Spitzers of the World to say "i just saved Energy"??
sitenote: today i read in "The Economist" that during the German Hyperinflation it was cheaper to burn money then to buy gasoline... Historie is quite nice..
The quality of comments here leads me to believe that this blog is very widely read.
Nevertheless, Bretton Woods II does need to end at some point. China is already pegging to a basket of currencies and can slowly adjust that basked away from the dollar. This will be a very gradual process that is already under way. But dont expect China or Saudi Arabia to announce it.
The dollar has fallen quite a bit. Once Asia and Europe become affected by the US recession the dollar will recover.
What we are looking at is a fairly typical C/A currency adjustment.
Bubbles is Bernanke's body double for security reasons, already booked, not free. Perhaps Bubbles could play himself acting as Bernanke's body double. Bush is going to play Greenspan, so an opening appears for Bush's part. I'd say MJ, he needs the work and he didn't destroy the nation by buying a cheap home.
Actually China did announce they were ending the peg to the dollar and were adding more currencies to their basket. It happened a couple of years ago when they first started appreciating the Yuan from 8+ yuan/USD to the 7 yuan/USD today. Stetser at RGE monitor has been covering it. It's a difficult job that has never been done. Our problems keep buying China back in to supporting the USD exchange rate where China picked up another $60 bil in USD reserves in January. China's not in the driver's seat but they are on the steering committee. Yup, Greenspan & Bush have helped put China into a situation where they can guide Free Market America's future.
"Finally, it appears possible that the incentives provided by a series of regulations may have encouraged crowded trades. The so-called "cliff risk" created by the mandated use of ratings is one example. A paradox of the current turbulence is that a desire to shelter in the perceived safety of AAA-rated assets led to a dangerous explosion in the supply of synthetically created AAA-rated assets. Since many of these assets were financed by excessive leverage and many participants were constrained by mandates to sell on downgrades, the rush to the exits has proven extremely destabilizing."
I didn't read anything above. BB's "solution" did not work. Maybe he should go hug Jim Cramer. Damn them all. Damn them all to hell. What do you think now, Sebastian? Oh, the humanity.
In response to the Euro CD question way up near the top - Everbank offers FDIC insured CDs in various currencies. Note: I know nothing of the bank, so do your own due diligence.
A paradox of the current turbulence is that a desire to shelter in the perceived safety of AAA-rated assets led to a dangerous explosion in the supply of synthetically created AAA-rated assets
hahaha i call it speculation ...
the corner stone of Capitalism
Marx would have told him and every Drunk Idiot on a Street Corner begging for Money would have told him that this happens....
he would have to add:
To keep the save shelter we can now not downgrade all these save assets because it would impend the savety of the asset....
this war may end when my farts smell of channel....
Folks, I know this is off this topic, but since this is the active thread I'll bring it up here and see if I am totally off base here. Regarding the TAF and TSLF. If the Fed takes a 10% haircut, and the true vale of the MBS is $0.60 in the dollar, and these loans can be rolled over forever. Is this not the equivelent of handing over 400 x .9 =360, 360 x (.9-.6) = $108 billion to Wall St. That is not just pennies from heaven but Krugerrands from heaven for the St. Now if it staves off the complete financial meltdown scenario, that might be money well spent. However to do so with no Congressional authorization, let alone even any public debate is outrageous. And to do so when the st. is still paying common dividends and paying out massive aounts in executive bonuses should be enough to start a revolution. Please tell me where I am off base.
If the April IMF gold sale happens, I am sure China wouldn't mind finding a new home for that ~$1.5T they have laying around. Gold might be a good place for it prior to unpegging.
That's what it costs the government to forge a penny, thanks to the rising price of metal. A nickel costs 10 cents. Congress, in its infinite wisdom, has concluded that's a pretty bad deal.
A House subcommittee led by Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) convened a hearing Tuesday on a proposal to change the composition of both coins. Republicans and Democrats like the concept, particularly its promise to save taxpayers $100 million a year by using cheaper metals at the U.S. Mint. If the legislation clears the House and Senate and President Bush signs it, you could be plucking steel pennies off the street before year's end.
How do I buy Saudi government bonds? Or at least, Aramco bonds? Don't tell me Everbank...they skim too much off the top. Globalism should include the right to invest globally. in Sino or Saudi or UAE bonds.
"Now if it staves off the complete financial meltdown scenario, that might be money well spent."
Why? Let it burn. Why preserve those at the top whilst the rest writh in pain. So the system can rise up from the ashes and perpetrate the same crime again? Burn em down, I say.
I never saw gold-plated walls in public restrooms in Moscow, but I did see a lot of "used" money (rubles). I guess Lenin was a little bit confused about "values". Lets hope uncle Ben doesnt believe in the "gold-plated restroom walls" theory.
Maybe people are beginning to view rate cuts as nothing but subsidies for irresponsible and untrustworty behavior.
Maybe people are beginning to see through the whole premise of having an institution, which has no ability to create wealth, being in charge of making the US wealthier with pieces of paper and the rate cuts that make it possible to have lots and lots of pieces of paper.
Maybe it's all just starting to look like some big fraud.
If a contract between two parties means nothing anymore, maybe it's best just not to participate and focus your efforts on keeping your wealth out of other peoples' hands.
The Fed raised in Oct 1931 to defend the dollar-gold exchange ratio: people choosing dollars over gold would get rewarded, and the gold reserves of the US would be preserved. With the dollar decoupled from gold, there is no incentive to defend the dollar today - on the contrary, devalueing the dollar in terms of gold 1933 was one step to fight the depression, and Ben Bernanke knows about it well. I agree with previous poster who wrote
I doubt the Fed cares as much about the dollar as keeping the financial system from melting down into a charred carcass of mortgage bonds. Ok, so the collapsing dollar is ever-so-slightly inflationary and the Fed does care about THAT, but if they have to choose between the banks and inflation they'll choose . . . . . BANKS.
The only thing that could stop Bernanke from reducing the rate further are exploding long-term rates on treasuries, due to inflation fears, because they would burden the treasury and make other investments less competitive.
This is all hogwash and udder stupidity. Bush isnt history until January of next year, and he will continue to hinder economic and financial restructuring every week, every month that he remains. Once he is ousted and replaced, the next president will have a massive mess that will take a decade to unwind, and obviously who ever is elected will not be allowed to implement any sustainable ambitious plan. The next president does have power to remove every Fed Board Gov, including Chairman Ben, but then what? The re-invention of government is needed and necessary but will this provide a new level of trust or just new appointments resulting in counter-productivity?
This is a perfect storm with Bush in place to continue along with the greatest destruction of America, since..., well, since The Boston Tea Party. America has been altered beyond repair by this coup in power, and perhaps this is an opportunity to re-think Bretton Woods and determine our destiny.
Damned straight. Paper printing counterfeit institution controlling the worth of what productive people make. Burn them. And Eff the MF's who sustain them. Burn it all down.
Oh sorry, I'm in a mildly bad mood after meeting with a friend for dinner who's getting his head cut off.
I haven't seen this, but what is the danger of letting Bear Sterns fail? They have a clearing business that regularly minds small profits, gate keeper tokens, it's not enough to brag about at MOMA cocktail parties or enough to afford mega-year-end bonuses. It's analogious to the once monoline insurers, regular boring profits. Let someone pick off that business from BS and let the company fail. What is the damage to the whole?
Okay, bigger question, what is the danger of letting Citigrope or Fannie Mae fail, or let Citi and Fannie fail? Is the damage to our system worse than the universal damage we will feel from Bernanke's bailing?
In the spirit of Optimism, I agree with Misean's sentiment: Let 'em burn. I'm looking forward to a more level playing field. New opportunities will emerge from the ashes, and the ones who exploit them will end up on top.
If there's any justice, the middle class will drag the upper class down with it (nothing will change for the poor), and we'll all get a do-over. Otherwise, it'll be peonage and/or a 2 level caste system.
Re: I saw this today, any clue out there as to why The Treasury & IMF are playing with gold these days??
Section 4 of the Special Drawing Rights Act sets forth the general protocols. The "Secretary of Treasury" [Governor-IMF] issues an international letter of credit called a "Special Drawing Rights Certificate" to the Federal Reserve Banks "in such form and in such denomination as he may determine". The SDR is deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks which in turn credits the account of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) with Federal Reserve Notes in an amount equal to the value of the SDR certificate. SDR's became the "collateral security for Federal Reserve Notes".
Regularly foreign especially Asian markets fall, it looks like our NYSE will hit that iceberg, but end of day the Dow is down slightly or actually up for the day. Happened Thursday. What gives? It looks like foreign markets are adjusting to our problems faster than our own markets.
Re: Dealing with the Financial Turmoil: Contingent Risks, Policy challenges, and the Role of the IMF
Speech by Mr. John Lipsky
First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund
At the Peterson Institute
March 12, 2008
In other words, policy makers as a matter of course need to "think the unthinkable," and to consider how they would plan to react if contingencies arise. The need to prepare systematically for potential risks has been demonstrated amply during the past few months. After all, the failure of both financial institutions and public authorities to anticipate the current challenges already damaged some core institutions, undermining confidence and weakening economic prospects.
These are the potential transmission channels, but what are the main risksthe "unthinkables" that might be considered today in contemplating contingency plans?
For one, the possible emergence of a global financial decelerator could amplify the impact of the financial turmoil on the real economy.
Now is not the time to introduce regulatory changes that permit losses to be hidden. Indeed, banks need to improve their disclosure practices so investors and counterparties can better understand what assumptions and positions lie behind their balance sheets.
Dick is on his way to Saudi Arabia to shore up more sovereign funds.
Bush interview on PBS:
GHARIB: You know, we're becoming more and more dependent on foreign capital, and some of it is coming from the sovereign wealth funds. Do you think that they're making a positive contribution, especially in this current climate, or do you see risks that they're using money for a political agenda?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, first of all, it's our money -- and a lot of the time -- and therefore I think it makes sense for us to encourage them to reinvest in our country.
I think someone just stomped on the global financial decelerator! I think they thought things were going to zoom forwards and not slam backwards 50 years...
My thinking the unthinkable is maybe we should be hiring working economists, Kasriel, Roubini, Grant, rather than this brahmin caste of academe/govt/academe economists, Greenspan, Bernanke, as Fed Governators.
The dollar might rally against the Euro, but it will benefit neither. We are in a perfect storm. The dollar is only one element of the crisis. Even if we could get the value of the dollar back up relative to other currencies (not just the Euro), we'd probably be crushed by deflationary forces. Damned if we do, damned if we don't, but it really doesn't matter either way.
Re: THE PRESIDENT: Well, first of all, it's our money -- and a lot of the time -- and therefore I think it makes sense for us to encourage them to reinvest in our country.
That sums up the next 10 months folks, utter stupidity and wasted time!
Well, first of all, it's our money -- and a lot of the time...
Yeah we just let them hold it for a bit. I recall the Castro episode in the Simpsons when Montie Burns lets Castro hold his ten million dollar bill and then when he asks for it back Castro says "What bill?"
The last time Dirk Cheney went to Saudi Arabia, home of the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11, the Saudis read Dirk the riot act, our Iraq policy changed from supporting the Shites to underground support of the Sunnis tribes/gangs/militias/allies and creating a rival power to the Shites Iraq govt. We'd be safer if Dirk went to Montana and negotiated with some caged birds via shotgun.
But if Dirk, Earl of the Fourth Branch, does go to Saudi Arabia please take pictures. They might be as embarrasing 10 or 20 years from now as Romfield shaking hands with Hussein in the 1980s.
Anyways, Cheney starting in a few months is going to be cleaning up, he can't pressure the Saudis too much as they are future paymasters for him.
This comment section sucks. All half wit smartass comments and no real info. Why post if you aren't going to read? Its like littering on the info super hype-way.
I'll repost the original question:
How do I buy Saudi government bonds? Or at least, Aramco bonds? Don't tell me Everbank...they skim too much off the top. Globalism should include the right to invest globally. in Sino or Saudi or UAE bonds.
Given the rise in inflation in China and the Middle East, a break in the linkage to the US dollar is a certainty. Those calling for a bottom in the dollar..well, we heard alot of bottom callers in the Nasdaq as it slid all the way down from 5,000 to its final bottom.
Rich Lather, I don't know where to buy Saudi Arabian bonds, why don't you go do some research rather than complaining no one here is doing your research for you?
Arabia, shouldn't they be running a budget surplus, so why the bonds? Or bonds in short supply due to lack of need. Some Saudi wants to build a 1,500 meter high tower, how useless is that? Does that sound like a country that needs to issue bonds.
Grant's Interest Rate Observer has been covering the Iraqi dinar appreciation against the USD, so you're onto something. I am looking forward to reading your posts after you do your research.
i was telling my friend today at lunch that i'm having such a weird time with this 'recession.'
i've RIF'ed, taken on a subtenant, wound up a venture, buckled down and taken to heart the slow down.
but had one or two things broken a different way, i would never had really FELT the "recession" in my soul.
but they did so i did.
thats why this loan closing today just makes me ecstatic - i've been eating, drinking, sleeping a recession and now something (more) good has happened in the last few weeks
i can say with confidence that my own personal world has decidedly trended upwards for some weeks now (more to that story later) but i wouldnt say that the economy is headed that way.
as before i believed we were taking market share more than just growing and i hoped to continue that. we'll see
in DC, sure housing prices are dropping but the overall economy really feels sound.
havent been to mid america or nj or wherever recently though.
i'm way too small to be a bellweather for the economy LOL no kidding. so i'll take my lucky breaks just as they are, lucky breaks. maybe one day soon it'll change but i dont see it happening.
on another note i'm now working with a major land developer in NoVa and we just broke ground on a new phase of 200+ lots all of which are presold to major HB. we're also beginning the development of over 2MM sqft of commercial/retail/industrial as well as gobbling up BK'ed and defaulted land parcels.
expanding in this market is exhilarating and seems like the absolute best thing to do.
when they called it a 'sellers' market it paid to be a seller. now that its a buyer's market, it pays to be a buyer for sure.
Mish has predicted the dollar rebound for a LOOOONG time and been wrong at every turn!
January 3, 2006 The US$ should resume its downward slide as the FED puts an end to rate hikes. However, the bottom may already be in for a long time. There will not be a quick plunge back to the February March 2005 bottom as central banks everywhere are in a complete mess.
September 09, 2006 I predict the dollar will not make and hold a new low.
December 09, 2006 To put my neck on the line I suspect the US$ will hold the 80 level (or perhaps do a headfake below then reverse). Longer term, the US$ is indeed toast but that can be quite a ways off from here.
i'm way too small to be a bellweather for the economy LOL no kidding. so i'll take my lucky breaks just as they are, lucky breaks.
Dude:
a. as my better half points out, "luck" is the intersection of opportunity and hard work.
b. one of the persistent joys of the 'net, apart from being able to find out where to get Saudi bonds, is to take all of the disparate views and create something coherent.
c. If you can pull that off in NoVa - I lived 6 years in SS, MD and worked in DC - right now, more power to you.
Regardi Saudi bonds, I'd bet a nickel that since Islamic law prohibits the charging of interest, they do not issue bonds. There are ways around this issue for financing purposes, but I doubt that bonds actually exist.
If you are the type that wants to buy direct foreign sovereign bonds, and the way you gather your info is by posting a request on an unrelated blog, then I think you have shown that you are not the type who should be buying foreign sovereign bonds.
What next - post on your myspace page "anyone know about some sweet hedge funds?"
i hear ya. as i always say my 'wisdom' is hard fought. meaning, i learn everything the hard way and i work hard to find out which way is the right way. a new MBA every so often earned in the school of life.
Wrt to NoVa development -
sure prices blow, sure things are over built for now. but the unstoppable growth of the DC area shall not be stopped. only slowed, delayed, impacted etc, but as sure as time marches on, the DC metroplexarcana area will continue to grow.
get in the way of that growth and you've got a real thing going there. will it take 5-7-10 years from now? hell ya!
but, buying and preparing and starting now on new initiatives set to deliver in 2013 is the smart, prudent and GD'ed hopefully lucrative thing to do. especially if you can buy all cash and lever up when the time is right.
The last time Dirk Cheney went to Saudi Arabia, home of the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11, the Saudis read Dirk the riot act, our Iraq policy changed from supporting the Shites to underground support of the Sunnis tribes/gangs/militias/allies and creating a rival power to the Shites Iraq govt.
We still support those Iranian friendly Shiites and fight along side them against Sadr friendly Shiites. Hakim gets the red carpet treatment in the WH by Bush and Ahmadinejad gets the red carpet treatment in Iraq by Hakim.
Right mate, but it seemed a bit sardonic, given a gratuitous post. Eh, Eff it, let me buy another round and we'll discuss tomorrow's meltdown. You catch the tab next time my friend.
Viewing with alarm writes:
It still gets back to the fact that we have consumed more than we produced and paid for it with debt. There is no way out but lower consumption.
What we are looking at is a fairly typical C/A currency adjustment.
sharkbait | 03.13.08 - 10:07 pm | #
Those two comments pretty much sum it up. Ending BWII won't be a terrible thing at all for Americans unless they don't want to produce goods of the same approximate value to those we consume - do that and the dollar restrengthens and this becomes a 'nothing burger'.
If we don't want to makes stuff equivalent to what we consume then we are screwed and deserve to be screwed.
It will be a rough wake up call but not the end of the world.
Poll: how many of you have actually worked in an enterprise that produced something? My guess is most here have at one time or another but that most no longer do, that we are mostly 'parasites'. You might consider getting closer to the 'production side'... if BWII goes kaput - we'll all be laborers again.
Jim | 03.13.08 - 11:09 pm | # Where's a reliable place to get CDs in euros?
HSBC Singapore
You dont need to go there. Get the forms (email). Fill em, get your ID attested at a US HSBC branch. Send forms back.
Do everything else online
If we don't want to makes stuff equivalent to what we consume then we are screwed and deserve to be screwed.
Not really. There are other ways !!!!
The dollar's record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to prop up the currency in 13 years, say strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
it's sad, very sad to see the country go this way.
had we continued to narrow the debt as we doing before dubya, how different things might have been.
oh well that's all water under the dam now...or water under the reactor as we used to say in pennsylvania.
looks like we, collectively, are gonna get whats commin to us.
mt
ps to rich lather or whom ever...the reason this thread is kinda not action oriented ,i guess, is that most here realize there ain't nothin the feds gonna do to repair the damage...just forestall the inevitable....feeling resigned
will the dollar drop make us make more stuff? is there conclusive data one way or the other?
CR posted a chart showing import deficit a few days ago - oil related deficit WAY BIGGER... deficit related to other stuff declining.
So 'yes' we are buying less stuff offshore, making more stuff for ourselves and exporting more too. How long that holds up in a declining consumption market is hard to say. I do know anyone related to automotive or building hardware is in trouble no matter if they are domestic or foreign.
One thing I have seen lately are companies in hard pressed sectors coming to guys like me looking for 'jobs with margin'. These are firms that got pretty bloated in the boom.
I've been pretty cranky lately myself & told a few of them 'you can find margin - but not by raising price - you have to find margin by pushing cost out the bottom & that means cutting some of the fluff management has become accustomed too'. They weren't real happy with that - I won't be working with them.
Where have you looked? What have you found? Why not call a Canadian bank, like RBofScotland, and ask what they offer? Opening a CDN acct can't be that hard, if you have a CDN address.
I'm positive that the Cayman Islands will offer you what you want. But the servicing fees are very high, and eternal, on your CI corporation, so you're either rich or you're SOL in that direction.
I've opened an acct in the past in Poland, for a client. That's not very promising either; the paperwork requires an attorney, etc, etc, etc.
March 11 WSJ Op Ed page 11 sec A21: David Malpass Chief Economist Bear Stearns: " A clear presidential preference for a stronger dollar could cause an immediate leap in financial markets. U.S. stocks and corporate bonds are attractively priced-except for the dollar risk". His last remark: "The President should state a preference for a stronger and stable dollar. It has a good chance of stopping the credit crunch. It's free and easy. And let's face it: Other measures aren't working. So it is written so it shall be. Sheesh! Were in big trouble.
dc, good to see ya back pal, its been a while. However, if you want to bet on the rebound in the DC area, wouldnt it make more sense to buy some of the existing assets that are for sale now rather than add to the supply with a new development?
The dollar's record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to prop up the currency in 13 years, say strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Bloomberg.com refer=home
krish | 03.14.08 - 12:02 am | #
krish - they can prop up the dollar & keep exporting to us anytime they want to... all they have to do is start buying some of our commercial paper, ABS, MBS and everything else we've 'contained' over the last few decades.
Think they're gonna do that? I wouldn't put them past it but if they do - it just kicks the can even farther down the road.
BTW - up until about last October I would have bet money those foreign CBs would prop up the dollar to maintain their export advantage... went on record here many times saying so. I am now in the camp where I believe they have had enough and are actively looking for an alternative to BWII - the thing holding it up is none of them want THEIR currency to be it (it would be a huge job killer in the long run & politically destabilizing).
you crack me up. i've followed your advice over the years and you dont sell me anything. i've rif'ed, cut, de-fluffed and gotten real 'cuz you told me your daddy said always watch cash. too bad the other guys dont read this blog. i've got another guy in my old office while i'm a minority tenant in my own prime lease space.
dirk - likewise. i've been busy man, damn, so busy. miss my kids worse than this place. but yeah, buying stuff thats already built or needing repositioning or whatever is fine but we're dealing with a large site with a 20 year old cost basis. just makes sense.
The dollar's record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to prop up the currency in 13 years, say strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The key word is "may" as further reading shows:
A united bid to aid the dollar may still not be around the corner. For now, a falling U.S. currency and surging euro are giving support to a weakening American economy by spurring its exports. It's also helping the ECB contain inflation, which is at a 14-year high of 3.2 percent.
And considering the source I wouldn't bank on it. Why would the Eu want to prop up the US when they are benefitting:
The United States continues to dominate the ranks of the world's biggest companies, but to a much lesser degree than it did even a decade ago. It now accounts for nine of the Top 25, followed closely by Europe with eight. In 1998, the United States accounted for as many as 18 of the Top 25 companies, followed by Europe with five.
dryfly: "I've been pretty cranky lately myself & told a few of them 'you can find margin - but not by raising price - you have to find margin by pushing cost out the bottom & that means cutting some of the fluff management has become accustomed too'. They weren't real happy with that - I won't be working with them."
Exactly right. I'm surveying everyone in a niche, now, for the best possible prices; however, the big boys have the infrastructure to sustain themselves via federal contracts even in a downturn; so they've a lotta sex appeal. Doing a deal with a lowball player and then finding them on death's door and your goods in their pipeline is the kiss of economic death.
you crack me up. i've followed your advice over the years and you dont sell me anything. i've rif'ed, cut, de-fluffed and gotten real 'cuz you told me your daddy said always watch cash. too bad the other guys dont read this blog. i've got another guy in my old office while i'm a minority tenant in my own prime lease space.
I was in a plant lately and told the owners - two young guys who bought a machine shop for god sake, what possessed them - anyway I told them they got a potential gold mine IF they can survive the next 2-3 years. They are 'small and getting smaller' & might make it if the cash burn doesn't burn them up.
One of the things I told them was to use the skills they got from previous jobs to help them build the skill set of this shop. All it does now is service runs and low grade low quality stuff. They do what they do well but not enough value to ask for margin.
But they could do a lot more - one of the guys ran a foundry & now with machining experience he could put the two together & step in to the void left as Asians step out (and to certain degree they are).
If the dollar stays weak - we aren't going to have anywhere near the domestic capacity in either of those sectors (foundry products or machining & fabrication) - imports will become too expensive with a weak dollar. I'm already seeing it - it will get nothing but worse.
But the guys have to be upgrading their offering now - can't wait for the recovery 'to pay for it' or they'll miss it. Nor can they borrow to get there since they are broke. That means 'bootstrapping & guerrilla marketing' - a rust belt redo.
Anyone who gets good at that now is going to be prosperous in the future. The days of buying profits with cheap leverage are gone - you have to make your profits now. Most can't.
Exactly right. I'm surveying everyone in a niche, now, for the best possible prices; however, the big boys have the infrastructure to sustain themselves via federal contracts even in a downturn; so they've a lotta sex appeal. Doing a deal with a lowball player and then finding them on death's door and your goods in their pipeline is the kiss of economic death.
GaudiaRay | 03.14.08 - 12:24 am | #
I hear ya - but some of those big guys with contracts also have huge liabilities and can go down fast - think Enron & WorldCom.
Meanwhile some of the smaller guys are small because they stick to the knitting (do what they do well) & don't chase fantasies (like off balance sheet vehicles).
It is so hard to tell in both cases - I don't envy the buyers, they have a MUCH tougher job.
Japan breaks through 12,400 to new 2.5 year low. Yen about to go through 100 again.
Today was the clearest sign yet that these "market pumping events" are orchestrated and pre-announced to insiders. It was like all of a sudden everybody just knew it was the S&P thing that boosted the market, even though the S&P thing was basically meaningless.
I think the pattern is that a small group of hedge funds and prop desk get the word on the pump of the day from the PPT. They prime the pump and hope to draw in as many suckers as possible. Then, they gradually unwind. With each pump, it seems like the well is running a little more dry.
MT
What goes around comes around.
By 2004 who Bush was and who he represented was clear. Yet he was re-elected. Plus the support for the invasion etc gives a clear read on our fellow citizens. That is the sad thing to see our country undergoing.
It was interesting to see how Canada (which always reminds me of 1950's American) was able to coalesce and maybe found a workable solution to save themselves.
But the US is going to hoist itself on its own petard of a policy of utter self-interest.
The Evolution-based theory of parochial altruism bases the replacement of self-interest by cooperation upon the strict punishment of cheaters. Else utter self interest returns.
From Mish: "Expect the worse to get worse." Nobody is giving me any inkling that it's getting any better,'' said Arnold Goldner, a 56-year-old owner of a jewelry repair business in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Goldner said he hasn't been able to sell $5 million in auction-rate preferred bonds sold by closed-end funds from Nuveen Investments Inc. and BlackRock Inc., which borrow in the market alongside cities, hospitals, colleges and student lenders. I'm going to invent a mattress with a built in vault.
Even though it is generally true that it is good to start a business during a recession there are caveats. You have to figure out how to survive the recession, as a new business, without cashflow; and be right about how long the recession will last.
Sounds like you are buying up BKed land and not expecting to make money for the next 10 years. You got deep pockets my friend.
shark. wish those were my pockets. or not. funny thing i learned along the way. you dont need money actually. all you need is OPM. whats 80 limiteds to worry about when you've got complete control and freedom to wait?
and/or be working deals that just simply have a 5 year cycle?
plus, i think warehouse/flex/industrial real estate is gonna be hot hot hot
I think this country has some hope -- especially if Obama becomes president. We need someone intelligent to run this crazy place.
We've been ruled by greedy politicians who serve big business for way to long. We will all pay for being stupid enough to elect these people to office.
If the country continues on its present course the rich will get richer and the middle class in America will become extinct.
i've been pitching the idea seriously to several of my friends and family members about going in together to buy out one of those vacated machine shops in michigan and take the stuff back to chicago and open a fabrication plant.
my great grandfather/family survived the great depression by throwing his life's savings and every ounce of his energy to opening a foundry that ended up totally booming when the new deal projects started rolling along and during WWII.
it's clear that there will HAVE to be an industrial resurgence in this country. we won't be able to afford the stuff from abroad, and I don't think anyone wants to live a stone age existence. so given no other alternative, sweat and blood will have to rebuild this country.
dc1000 -- I think you either need deep pockets or collateral or investment to start a new business. Since we are entering the worst recession since 1930 I hope for your sake that you do have deep pockets or collateral even though you might not want to admit it here.
Also if you want to talk up real estate may be you should start your own blog?
I'm a conservative dude and I think that this guy is actually the way to go forward.
Not because of the left/right angle - I know already my taxes are going up - but he seems to have the FDR effect, especially with the kids. Highly frightening times re currency, economy, end of empire(?), war, etc. and he does inspire hope.
McCain? Granted, has character and does cross aisle so able to work with other side. But also too damned old.
Clinton? She's the scary one.
Suggest that you try to read a book called "Generations" (author?), which came out about 20 years ago, but with some interesting generational research thru our history. Obama seems to speak to that.
It seems to me that no one will come out of this particularly well. The US is obviously screwed. The Europeans will now be even less competitive with too strong a Euro. The Chinese are going to see massive oversupply and less demand from their main customer, the US which leads to evaporation of profit margins and finally, layoffs.
Basically, a world recession. Even the Saudi's will get screwed in the end as oil demand collapses and everyone realizes that peak oil is a myth (at least until another 30 years).
Since the US will not allow deflation no matter what, the rest of the world, who has been financing our consumption, will now realize that their booms were merely inflationary flare-ups.
So where to invest? Large cap US stocks will benefit from a weaker dollar. Stick to the ones that are less effected by recession and that are relatively cheap. Pfizer, JNJ, Procter & Gamble, AIG.
plus, i think warehouse/flex/industrial real estate is gonna be hot hot hot
You might want to do a little 'market research'. See if you can't talk to some of the folks who would be renting the things and ask them what they are looking for, price points, etc.
I see unbelievable amounts of the stuff going up around Chicago (south burbs near I80 and I57). So much I have a very hard time believing it isn't going to be heavily saturated.
If I was going to put in warehouse/flex build I'd look for proximity to airport freight operations... I see more companies shipping via air freight than at anytime in my life. Lot sizes & packages are smaller (we aren't talking coal shipments to Newcastle)... but security & fast turn are VERY important - hast to be a higher quality build.
That and warehouse/support combination operations... say an important international supplier to large local mfg company... the supplier will often site a warehouse near the plant AND staff the office with applications engineers & sales staff. Twofers.
Most of the flex build I've seen is worthless - doesn't do industrial well, doesn't do warehouse well, doesn't do retail well. A nofer.
But I don't know the biz well at all - just know nothing opinion.
Given the cost of fuel, wouldn't it be better going forward to instead look at proximity to rail? Or is that too far out on the time horizon to be a factor?
They have a trillion in assets. If you can figure them out, sure. I actually spent some time looking at their CDS exposure and ended up more concerned about their other assets.
i've been pitching the idea seriously to several of my friends and family members about going in together to buy out one of those vacated machine shops in michigan and take the stuff back to chicago and open a fabrication plant.
Sounds like a plan though I'm not sure I'd move the equipment to Chicago - there is glut of capacity there now (the shop I looked at was on the Illinois-Wisconsin border).
But I think you are on the right track - feel free to bounce ideas off me if you do. My rates here are very affordable but you get what you pay for...
Given the cost of fuel, wouldn't it be better going forward to instead look at proximity to rail? Or is that too far out on the time horizon to be a factor?
For cheap bulk commodities & large lots of mfg'd product that can be containerized - rail is great.
For small onesies and twosies shipments - especially expensive stuff that has to get somewhere far fast - air is the only way to go. There are a lot of these kinds of things.
Point is the facility dc builds needs to match the target use real well in a market where there is already too many buildings... that is if he wants it to sell.
I live in Minnesota - SE of the Twin Cities about an hour or so. I just sell industrial stuff in Chicago & Milwaukee and also Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Minnesota... I'm in Chicago-Milwaukee area about one week out of every month. I was just there the last few days.
Folks! All this whining here how you got screwed! Blame Bernanke, Greenspan, Bush, Canada, whoever, if you lose the game. But you just fool yourself. It's the game, not some character masks in it. The game is called capitalism and it has been like this, since capitalism emerged in Europe in the 16th century, and spread all over the world since then. Some win, many lose. Since you all want to be part of the game you will have to accept that you might end up on the loser side. If you don't like it quit the game, but you can't have the game without the rules.
In one of his first major speeches since becoming Secretary of Agriculture, Ed Schafer addressed the 4,500 attending the Commodity Classic in Nashville, Tenn., and told them this is a time for celebrating agriculture in America.
It's time to celebrate agriculture today, not only for our record exports and record prices for corn, wheat and soybeans, but also for the record level of farm income, as well, Schafer said.
Schafer also expressed his gratitude for being selected to head what he called the People's Department.
Re: the S&P announcement that subprime writedowns are complete, this wording struck me as choice:
"when we dissect the percentage of write-downs taken against various types of exposures, in our opinion the magnitude of some write-downs is greater than any reasonable estimate of ultimate losses.
Oh, ultimate losses?
Silly us! We thought what their statement meant was that banks have fully written off the worthless subprime MBS's they hold.
What they really meant was that only an unreasonable person could think that more than half those home loans will eventually fail.
Note: Roubini systemic failure a little closer. Something like a Triffin's Delima here, as deficit spending increased to foster growth it has the side-effect of making the dollar unattractive to investors...so as Fed attempts unclog the liquidity pipe, each time it does, mark-to-market corrections devalue shockingly the assets, seizing up credit in other areas...
Implicit in Kasriel's charts and analysis is that the Fed must lead, not the psychology. Clearly the Fed's cuts were anticipated, as the graphs show, and once a run starts there is no catching it. At some point the Fed must judge that it has done what it can reasonable do to try to lessen - not prevent- a recession and it must then hold or raise. It also must break the public perception that it is responsive to complaints by Friends of Ben.
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in pounds for three months increased by the most since Aug. 16, signaling an agreement this week by central banks to combat the credit squeeze by injecting $240 billion into money markets is failing.
The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, climbed 9 basis points to 5.93 percent, the highest since Dec. 31, the British Bankers' Association said today. The comparable euro rate rose 2 basis points to 4.62 percent, the most since Jan. 4.
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer prices in the U.S. were unexpectedly unchanged in February as fuel costs dropped, easing concern that inflation would keep accelerating as the economy slows.
And futures are up sharply following the benign CPI report from the government.
I'm gonna print that report out and take it to my grocery store and gas station to show them that their price increases are out of line with what the gumbnit is reporting as fact.
Ever get the feeling that no one in authority ever tells the truth?
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaires Bill Gross and Wilbur Ross and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission failed to restore confidence in the $330 billion auction-rate bond market, as borrowing costs for states and municipalities rose.
Auctions for borrowers from San Francisco to Houston were unsuccessful even after Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund, and Ross, who invests in distressed companies, said they were buying municipal debt to take advantage of rising yields. Thirty-year tax-exempt yields rose 6 basis points to 4.89 percent after falling 18 basis points last week from a three-year high of 5.01 percent, Municipal Market Advisors data show.
More than 67 percent of auctions failed this week, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. The market became unhinged last month, after dealers who supported the securities for more than two decades stopped bidding for bonds investors didn't want. Auction rates jumped to 6.73 percent this month from an average 3.94 percent in the previous year, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said.
Bear Stearns can't fund itself. BSC needs to go to the NY Federal Reserve through JPM and this is good news??
The company is otherwise bust, and the stock rallies 10%???
While the price of oil climbs above $110 a barrel, most Americans dread the day they will have to pay $4. On this tropical island and a few stations in California, $4 gas has already arrived, straining the pocketbooks of residents and businesses.
Former National Bureau of Economic Research President Martin Feldstein said that the current recession could be "substantially more severe" than the last few.
The real problem is less consumption by US consumers. An estimated $500 billion per year less. All the rest is just a bail out of funny money. Worldwide manufacturing was already facing deflationary pressures due to overcapacity.
--
Fed's bail out of Bear Stearns proves that we have Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City in control of the financial system.
How much money the top guys at BSC made when they were doing the bad things that are causing problems today two years ago?
I am sure that born-and-bred American dopes don't see this as a financial criminal activity, but it sure is.
Demise of the American econo-political is not far in the future, because that is the only way Crooks will be dislodged. American dopes are delusional if they think that voting can change things for the better. The past voting has gotten us here!
Has there ever been any research into the efficacy of techncal analysis? Are there enough followers to make it self reinforcing(ex the battles around Dow 12k) does it work outright or is it just reading tea leaves/ doubling down on mercury retrogrades?
I don't really know, but for some reason, from time past, I've had the idea that Aramco and all that belong to the Saudi Arabian citizens (royalty most of all). You're either a Saudi citizen or not and you can't buy debt or shares or any part of Saudi industry or assets if you are not. Well, think about, they can't tolerate infidels visiting certain cities. How could they allow them to acquire an interest in their industries?
Fuel Flat?? Around here prices at the pump just leaped over the 4 dollar mark.
Yikes if you need premium. We have diesel trucks and at 10mpg it takes some bucks to have fun. We may just ride the horses on the local trails.
I'm thinking Ben Bernanke will not want to do that.
Shopping list:
Gold
Agri Commodities
Euros
more Euros
Wish list:
Bunker
And all over a handful of pegs.
I miss President Hoover.
I'm convinced.
Where's a reliable place to get CDs in euros?
"I'm thinking Ben Bernanke will not want to do that."
The little bastard won't have a choice the bond market leads the FED.
When they make the movie, Bernanke will be played by Danny Devito.
Once the Bank of England had gone off the gold standard in September 1931, what was the point in raising rates to defend the pound? Or, whatever happened to "beggar thy neighbor?"
Anyway, in the modern era I doubt the Fed cares as much about the dollar as keeping the financial system from melting down into a charred carcass of mortgage bonds. Ok, so the collapsing dollar is ever-so-slightly inflationary and the Fed does care about THAT, but if they have to choose between the banks and inflation they'll choose . . . . . BANKS.
No worries here. Mild recession? Been there done that....Hard landing? Fugggetaboutit, as you never have to land at all if you never took off in the first place.
The market has now bottomed from the recession that we never had...Printing money has always proved to be the end-all.
(God save us all)
Lets not pick on Ben too much. Sure, he has no spine. But lets not forget that Al Greenspan was the architect of this debacle by continually encouraging speculation via the "Greenspan Put."
Imagine if LTCM failed hard, rather than the collusional bailout. Don't you think the Street would have implemented better risk controls than they actually did?
well this time the shoe is on the other foot...
The USA will have little to say about it
as opposite to Bretton Woods 1 ...
As i posted 3 weeks ago enjoy:-))
YouTube
- Nixon Ends Bretton Woods International Monetary System
what will Bush say???
you are truly Bushed now ( or amBushed?)
Too many nabobs nattering negativity here. Haven't you heard? S&P has announced the worst of the subprime fiasco is over and home prices will rise!
Given their track record on this thing to date, does anyone have reason to doubt them now?
Okay, name me another reason.
Alright, another!
The dollar has been Bushwhacked?
Yep, we're the collapsing empire now, not Britain.
The real question is, even if the Fed raises rates, will it help?
Hmm.
Sue Harvard they gave him the impression to be competent as CEO with a MBA...
"the US need cheaper Gas and fewer sale sign"
my Girlfriend chin actual hit the floor at hearing this and she isnt really into economics!!!!
I say old chap, the sun never sets on the American Empire, until it does.
Um, TLT puts looking good to me soon.
On the other hand, look at that homebuilder rally today!!!
BWII dying is seriously bad mojo. Of course, the only folks who have spent much time contemplating its demise are the tinfoil crowd here.
Well, as a closet member, I have long acknowledged the possibility of the failure, but I had always assumed it would arrive contemporaneous with the peak in baby boomer retirements in twelve years. Ah well, stuff happens.
Now, let's all just put the genie back in the bottle...or the G7 will be a managed dollar decimation club.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Or are we screwed by a chinese decision to sever the yuan after the olympics?
8/8/8- could that be the end of BWII?
It would be fitting and make that fit of Bush to Hoover dang near exact.
Was Kasriel leaves off is that in March 1933, we were forced off the gold standard with a near 40% devaluation. In total crisis and panic.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I guess that puts an end to the deflation vs. inflation debate.
It still gets back to the fact that we have consumed more than we produced and paid for it with debt. There is no way out but lower consumption. Put the baby boomer costs on top of this and it will be a long dark winter, I wish I could believe other wise but what is, is.
dont forget you are all heavyli armed in the USA.. well that will bring in future revenues from Tourist who will enjoy the cheap Dollar... talk about freakonomics...
Building an empire isn't half as much fun as losing one.
When they make the movie Danny Devito will play the Bernanke role, great, I say. I don't remember Devito being in anything lately. And Bush will play Greenspan; Bush is a great actor. He hams it up and the press laughs and laughs. Then they go over to McCain's for bbq. Donald Trump will play himself, he'll get a cameo playing one of the few billionaire chumps.
The good news is the United States is lucky. We've picked the right time to have a dollar crisis right in the lead up to the Beijing Olympics. The Chinese should be ready to play ball with our Duke of Goldman Snatch & Secretary of the Treasury Paulson and our Fed, anything is open to suggestion in order to have a smooth Olympics. If we need to sell another week's worth of $100 bil in bonds, hit up Beijing first. It'll all be paid back spiritually when Bush attends the Games.
the hubris is may the "fun " part but then.....
its like a huge binge party all are happy
as it last but the hangover is a pain..
(may never stop the party ?? someone tell BB)
isnt the Bush visit a treath to the Olympics?? they possible need 2 million soldiers for security and empty Stadiums at such too...and just screened US Athletes.( undercover CIA agents)
the Chinese possible thinking hard to uninvite the Bozo politely...may buy getting rid of BW 2? bush would surely stay home as penalty...
Bernanke should be played by Don Rickles and Bush by Abe Vagoda......
Kasriel, Jim Grant, Roubini, and maybe this guy Wilbur Ross should be the central planners running our Fed. In science fiction mode we would not be where we are today, we would have steady growth but no boom, and probably more partial to warm clothes in Winter and domestic vacations rather than sending the kids to be hussies in Alcapone, Mexico.
Just cause a couple of over-valued things are falling in price does not mean there is deflation. Inflation, big time, all the way.
they could hire Micheal Jacksons Bubbles for Bushs part he need the Money and it would be close to the real thing...
Yup.
The amazing thing - again - is that we have a ringside seat to what's occurring. And it won't even go for a long period.
Sorry, but I'm a history freak. Those books will be relatively cheap entertainmente as I sit in my frayed circa 1999 chair, breathing fogged breath into the chill of the room, decorated by peeling wallpaper and a non-functional flat-screen TV.
The only good thing is that perhaps we
'll see posters akin to England in 1974 advocating that a good way to save energy is to bathe together.
"as I sit in my frayed circa 1999 chair, breathing fogged breath into the chill of the room, "
And your bicycle and rice bowl are among your most prized possessions.
áre there women involved in energy saving?? and would it be legal for the Spitzers of the World to say "i just saved Energy"??
sitenote: today i read in "The Economist" that during the German Hyperinflation it was cheaper to burn money then to buy gasoline... Historie is quite nice..
The quality of comments here leads me to believe that this blog is very widely read.
Nevertheless, Bretton Woods II does need to end at some point. China is already pegging to a basket of currencies and can slowly adjust that basked away from the dollar. This will be a very gradual process that is already under way. But dont expect China or Saudi Arabia to announce it.
The dollar has fallen quite a bit. Once Asia and Europe become affected by the US recession the dollar will recover.
What we are looking at is a fairly typical C/A currency adjustment.
Let's take over Saudi Arabia in the name of defending the peg. (and the oil, lotsa oil)
Bubbles is Bernanke's body double for security reasons, already booked, not free. Perhaps Bubbles could play himself acting as Bernanke's body double. Bush is going to play Greenspan, so an opening appears for Bush's part. I'd say MJ, he needs the work and he didn't destroy the nation by buying a cheap home.
Yoringe wrote:
"they could hire Micheal Jacksons Bubbles for Bushs part he need the Money and it would be close to the real thing..."
Hey why not, both communicate by flinging poo.
I've been writing abiout this since who knows when.
jo6pac
at least we keep the laughs going..
"If you have nothing you have nothing to loose"..
is Neverland on sale??
i have some Euros....
Actually China did announce they were ending the peg to the dollar and were adding more currencies to their basket. It happened a couple of years ago when they first started appreciating the Yuan from 8+ yuan/USD to the 7 yuan/USD today. Stetser at RGE monitor has been covering it. It's a difficult job that has never been done. Our problems keep buying China back in to supporting the USD exchange rate where China picked up another $60 bil in USD reserves in January. China's not in the driver's seat but they are on the steering committee. Yup, Greenspan & Bush have helped put China into a situation where they can guide Free Market America's future.
What's the risk of the Chinese letting go of their US dollars as a way to control their own inflation???
Am I way off here or would it be possible that their levels of the greenback could essentially be "monetary policy" to them?
chrisofay,
Danny Devito is actually in a show called
"It's always sunny in Philadelphia". Pretty
funny show. Check it out on Myspace.
Michael Jackson as Condaleeza Rice.
Don Rickles as Dick Cheney.
Woody Allen as Alan Greenspan
Earl (from My Name is Earl) as George Bush.
Stephen Colbert as Kudlow
Louis Black as Cramer
George Carlin as Warren Buffet
Eugene Levi as Fahd bin Abdul Aziz
and Larry Mathers as the Beaver.
make that Jerry Mathers as the Beav.
Excellent Marcus Aurelius, Excellent!
Thanks!
Marcus Aurelius writes:
Michael Jackson as Condaleeza Rice.
Don Rickles as Dick Cheney.
Woody Allen as Alan Greenspan
Earl (from My Name is Earl) as George Bush.
Stephen Colbert as Kudlow
Louis Black as Cramer
George Carlin as Warren Buffet
Eugene Levi as Fahd bin Abdul Aziz
and Larry Mathers as the Beaver.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.13.08 - 10:21 pm | #
i smell a ueber block buster...
the projected revenue will balance the Budget.. mail to BB to get percents..
BTW deliciuos cast the best so far!!!!
Canadian ABCP restructuring close to being filed in court:
ABCP jam close to resolution
BOC Gov. comments:
Carney backs ABCP rescue effort
BOC Gov. speaks on addressing market turbulence:
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He coins new term: cliff risk
"Finally, it appears possible that the incentives provided by a series of regulations may have encouraged crowded trades. The so-called "cliff risk" created by the mandated use of ratings is one example. A paradox of the current turbulence is that a desire to shelter in the perceived safety of AAA-rated assets led to a dangerous explosion in the supply of synthetically created AAA-rated assets. Since many of these assets were financed by excessive leverage and many participants were constrained by mandates to sell on downgrades, the rush to the exits has proven extremely destabilizing."
Where's The Maestro when you really need him?
Some of that quirky speaking would make everything all right pronto.
The Hang Seng Index is 4 to 6% lower.
I didn't read anything above. BB's "solution" did not work. Maybe he should go hug Jim Cramer. Damn them all. Damn them all to hell. What do you think now, Sebastian? Oh, the humanity.
In response to the Euro CD question way up near the top - Everbank offers FDIC insured CDs in various currencies. Note: I know nothing of the bank, so do your own due diligence.
blowncue writes
A paradox of the current turbulence is that a desire to shelter in the perceived safety of AAA-rated assets led to a dangerous explosion in the supply of synthetically created AAA-rated assets
hahaha i call it speculation ...
the corner stone of Capitalism
Marx would have told him and every Drunk Idiot on a Street Corner begging for Money would have told him that this happens....
he would have to add:
To keep the save shelter we can now not downgrade all these save assets because it would impend the savety of the asset....
this war may end when my farts smell of channel....
Miss Devito in Sunny Philly, I'm living overseas and obviously missing some culture. Perhaps I should get one of those swingbox things.
Now I'm pessimistic, for a moment I thought I might have a future as a casting director but this guy Marcus gets all the accolades.
Keep even compete with a dead man even if he has those pithy sayings.
Once the world turned backward, but it was Superman. Now the world goes forward and Lois Lane can't save Jimmy.
Folks, I know this is off this topic, but since this is the active thread I'll bring it up here and see if I am totally off base here. Regarding the TAF and TSLF. If the Fed takes a 10% haircut, and the true vale of the MBS is $0.60 in the dollar, and these loans can be rolled over forever. Is this not the equivelent of handing over 400 x .9 =360, 360 x (.9-.6) = $108 billion to Wall St. That is not just pennies from heaven but Krugerrands from heaven for the St. Now if it staves off the complete financial meltdown scenario, that might be money well spent. However to do so with no Congressional authorization, let alone even any public debate is outrageous. And to do so when the st. is still paying common dividends and paying out massive aounts in executive bonuses should be enough to start a revolution. Please tell me where I am off base.
If the April IMF gold sale happens, I am sure China wouldn't mind finding a new home for that ~$1.5T they have laying around. Gold might be a good place for it prior to unpegging.
These days, your thoughts are worth 1.7 cents.
That's what it costs the government to forge a penny, thanks to the rising price of metal. A nickel costs 10 cents. Congress, in its infinite wisdom, has concluded that's a pretty bad deal.
A House subcommittee led by Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) convened a hearing Tuesday on a proposal to change the composition of both coins. Republicans and Democrats like the concept, particularly its promise to save taxpayers $100 million a year by using cheaper metals at the U.S. Mint. If the legislation clears the House and Senate and President Bush signs it, you could be plucking steel pennies off the street before year's end.
Economy : Economy News and Photos - Courant.com
The decline of the empire, currency debasement at it's finniest disguised as saving the taxpayers money as the printing presses run 24-7
How do I buy Saudi government bonds? Or at least, Aramco bonds? Don't tell me Everbank...they skim too much off the top. Globalism should include the right to invest globally. in Sino or Saudi or UAE bonds.
Where does one find them for sale?
We are getting closer to the drain we are circling. This is actually not funny. But far be it from me to deplore gallows humor.
So.
How many pegs sharpened would it take to spike the US consumer.
Cheers,
trader walt writes:
The Hang Seng Index is 4 to 6% lower.
That was yesterday - today up ~320 as I write.
Nik and Sing up too.
Dirk:
Outrageous, ain't it?
Dirk,
"Now if it staves off the complete financial meltdown scenario, that might be money well spent."
Why? Let it burn. Why preserve those at the top whilst the rest writh in pain. So the system can rise up from the ashes and perpetrate the same crime again? Burn em down, I say.
Cheers,
Anonymous
would this not increase the price of the metals they use further??
why not ditch the coins alltogheter and print "in God we trust" on Toiletpaper...
i really thought i would never see this live....
WSJ - It's a Buyers Market for Banks / Credit Woes Dim Hopes For Relief by Takeover
It's a Buyers Market for Banks - WSJ.com
Yoringe,
Pull out a $1 bill and rub it on your butt. Not very absorbant is it?
Not saying it's worth much...just saying.
Cheers,
I never saw gold-plated walls in public restrooms in Moscow, but I did see a lot of "used" money (rubles). I guess Lenin was a little bit confused about "values". Lets hope uncle Ben doesnt believe in the "gold-plated restroom walls" theory.
Maybe people are beginning to view rate cuts as nothing but subsidies for irresponsible and untrustworty behavior.
Maybe people are beginning to see through the whole premise of having an institution, which has no ability to create wealth, being in charge of making the US wealthier with pieces of paper and the rate cuts that make it possible to have lots and lots of pieces of paper.
Maybe it's all just starting to look like some big fraud.
If a contract between two parties means nothing anymore, maybe it's best just not to participate and focus your efforts on keeping your wealth out of other peoples' hands.
FFDIC writes:
SB...p_us_whats_news
WSJ - It's a Buyers Market for Banks / Credit Woes Dim Hopes For Relief by Takeover
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
ohh so no ponies its a Bank for everyone... really if you dont start laughing now you need a gargleblaster...
Dirk,
Most MBS's are worthless. No skin or all your MEWs out when values dive is huge trouble. Remind me when it hits the fan.
Don't know if anyone has posted this, very funny.
The Subprime Primer
The Fed raised in Oct 1931 to defend the dollar-gold exchange ratio: people choosing dollars over gold would get rewarded, and the gold reserves of the US would be preserved. With the dollar decoupled from gold, there is no incentive to defend the dollar today - on the contrary, devalueing the dollar in terms of gold 1933 was one step to fight the depression, and Ben Bernanke knows about it well. I agree with previous poster who wrote
The only thing that could stop Bernanke from reducing the rate further are exploding long-term rates on treasuries, due to inflation fears, because they would burden the treasury and make other investments less competitive.
This is all hogwash and udder stupidity. Bush isnt history until January of next year, and he will continue to hinder economic and financial restructuring every week, every month that he remains. Once he is ousted and replaced, the next president will have a massive mess that will take a decade to unwind, and obviously who ever is elected will not be allowed to implement any sustainable ambitious plan. The next president does have power to remove every Fed Board Gov, including Chairman Ben, but then what? The re-invention of government is needed and necessary but will this provide a new level of trust or just new appointments resulting in counter-productivity?
This is a perfect storm with Bush in place to continue along with the greatest destruction of America, since..., well, since The Boston Tea Party. America has been altered beyond repair by this coup in power, and perhaps this is an opportunity to re-think Bretton Woods and determine our destiny.
Ame
ac,
Damned straight. Paper printing counterfeit institution controlling the worth of what productive people make. Burn them. And Eff the MF's who sustain them. Burn it all down.
Oh sorry, I'm in a mildly bad mood after meeting with a friend for dinner who's getting his head cut off.
Cheers,
I haven't seen this, but what is the danger of letting Bear Sterns fail? They have a clearing business that regularly minds small profits, gate keeper tokens, it's not enough to brag about at MOMA cocktail parties or enough to afford mega-year-end bonuses. It's analogious to the once monoline insurers, regular boring profits. Let someone pick off that business from BS and let the company fail. What is the damage to the whole?
Okay, bigger question, what is the danger of letting Citigrope or Fannie Mae fail, or let Citi and Fannie fail? Is the damage to our system worse than the universal damage we will feel from Bernanke's bailing?
In the spirit of Optimism, I agree with Misean's sentiment: Let 'em burn. I'm looking forward to a more level playing field. New opportunities will emerge from the ashes, and the ones who exploit them will end up on top.
If there's any justice, the middle class will drag the upper class down with it (nothing will change for the poor), and we'll all get a do-over. Otherwise, it'll be peonage and/or a 2 level caste system.
Re: I saw this today, any clue out there as to why The Treasury & IMF are playing with gold these days??
Section 4 of the Special Drawing Rights Act sets forth the general protocols. The "Secretary of Treasury" [Governor-IMF] issues an international letter of credit called a "Special Drawing Rights Certificate" to the Federal Reserve Banks "in such form and in such denomination as he may determine". The SDR is deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks which in turn credits the account of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) with Federal Reserve Notes in an amount equal to the value of the SDR certificate. SDR's became the "collateral security for Federal Reserve Notes".
R for Recession
R for Republicans
R for Revolution.......The Boston Tea Party heard about this on in scool....
christofay,
They'll fail. Question is how much of your hide the Fed and gov't takes out of your butt on the way down.
Cheers,
Mish expects dollar to rally vs euro.
Just saying...
Mish called the top of this market with a 2 day precision.
Missed Information writes:
Mish expects dollar to rally vs euro.
As my Kid says " Dreams are free"
inflationary pipelines,
Post a damned link. SDR's and IMF stuff are important but can't be analyzed by what you posted.
Cheers,
Regularly foreign especially Asian markets fall, it looks like our NYSE will hit that iceberg, but end of day the Dow is down slightly or actually up for the day. Happened Thursday. What gives? It looks like foreign markets are adjusting to our problems faster than our own markets.
Play NYSE
Where's a reliable place to get CDs in euros?
Open a European bank account. Go there to do it if you have to.
misean always gets so cranky at night. his martini driven dog watching is funny after 11pm.
Re: Dealing with the Financial Turmoil: Contingent Risks, Policy challenges, and the Role of the IMF
Speech by Mr. John Lipsky
First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund
At the Peterson Institute
March 12, 2008
Dealing with the Financial Turmoil: Contingent Risks, Policy challenges, and the Role of the IMF, Speech by Mr. John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund
In other words, policy makers as a matter of course need to "think the unthinkable," and to consider how they would plan to react if contingencies arise. The need to prepare systematically for potential risks has been demonstrated amply during the past few months. After all, the failure of both financial institutions and public authorities to anticipate the current challenges already damaged some core institutions, undermining confidence and weakening economic prospects.
These are the potential transmission channels, but what are the main risksthe "unthinkables" that might be considered today in contemplating contingency plans?
For one, the possible emergence of a global financial decelerator could amplify the impact of the financial turmoil on the real economy.
Now is not the time to introduce regulatory changes that permit losses to be hidden. Indeed, banks need to improve their disclosure practices so investors and counterparties can better understand what assumptions and positions lie behind their balance sheets.
Dick is on his way to Saudi Arabia to shore up more sovereign funds.
Bush interview on PBS:
GHARIB: You know, we're becoming more and more dependent on foreign capital, and some of it is coming from the sovereign wealth funds. Do you think that they're making a positive contribution, especially in this current climate, or do you see risks that they're using money for a political agenda?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, first of all, it's our money -- and a lot of the time -- and therefore I think it makes sense for us to encourage them to reinvest in our country.
Our Money????
What a boob
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/features/special/subdir/080312_bush_transcript/
Would now be a good time to invest in steel
makers ? Dollar down=imports prices up ?
Inflation numbers for February come out tomorrow.
I think someone just stomped on the global financial decelerator! I think they thought things were going to zoom forwards and not slam backwards 50 years...
My thinking the unthinkable is maybe we should be hiring working economists, Kasriel, Roubini, Grant, rather than this brahmin caste of academe/govt/academe economists, Greenspan, Bernanke, as Fed Governators.
CR:
ML Implode reports EMC layoff notices:
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter News Pick-ups: Ailing/Watch: Bear Stearns Mortgage
The dollar might rally against the Euro, but it will benefit neither. We are in a perfect storm. The dollar is only one element of the crisis. Even if we could get the value of the dollar back up relative to other currencies (not just the Euro), we'd probably be crushed by deflationary forces. Damned if we do, damned if we don't, but it really doesn't matter either way.
dc1000,
Congrats on you're deal closing.
I lifted a 'tini to ya tonight.
And you're right, I am cranky. I'm seeing too many friends getting wiped out in this meltdown.
How am I to be happy?
Cheers,
Re: THE PRESIDENT: Well, first of all, it's our money -- and a lot of the time -- and therefore I think it makes sense for us to encourage them to reinvest in our country.
That sums up the next 10 months folks, utter stupidity and wasted time!
Well, first of all, it's our money -- and a lot of the time...
Yeah we just let them hold it for a bit. I recall the Castro episode in the Simpsons when Montie Burns lets Castro hold his ten million dollar bill and then when he asks for it back Castro says "What bill?"
dc1000
really great deal, thanks so much for sharing all day, anyone else have anything going on like dc1000??
Pipelines:
Took all the proceeds of the catholic church raffle to fill up teh gas tank, then got BOGO on sausage.
BTW, that's proceeds, not winnings.
The last time Dirk Cheney went to Saudi Arabia, home of the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11, the Saudis read Dirk the riot act, our Iraq policy changed from supporting the Shites to underground support of the Sunnis tribes/gangs/militias/allies and creating a rival power to the Shites Iraq govt. We'd be safer if Dirk went to Montana and negotiated with some caged birds via shotgun.
But if Dirk, Earl of the Fourth Branch, does go to Saudi Arabia please take pictures. They might be as embarrasing 10 or 20 years from now as Romfield shaking hands with Hussein in the 1980s.
Anyways, Cheney starting in a few months is going to be cleaning up, he can't pressure the Saudis too much as they are future paymasters for him.
This comment section sucks. All half wit smartass comments and no real info. Why post if you aren't going to read? Its like littering on the info super hype-way.
I'll repost the original question:
How do I buy Saudi government bonds? Or at least, Aramco bonds? Don't tell me Everbank...they skim too much off the top. Globalism should include the right to invest globally. in Sino or Saudi or UAE bonds.
Where does one find them for sale?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, first of all, it's our money -- and a lot of the time -- and therefore I think it makes sense for us to
if he really beliefs this well what can i say...
Its our Money because it US Dollar???
A MBA??? He is a MBA???? Lord i am a Chef!! can i be your president??
Inflationary Pipeline,
"Well, first of all, it's our money"
Well, no it's not. It's the FRB's. It loans it to us. We don't have any money. The private FRB does.
Thanks, I'll be here till saturday.
Cheers,
Given the rise in inflation in China and the Middle East, a break in the linkage to the US dollar is a certainty. Those calling for a bottom in the dollar..well, we heard alot of bottom callers in the Nasdaq as it slid all the way down from 5,000 to its final bottom.
Rich Lather, I don't know where to buy Saudi Arabian bonds, why don't you go do some research rather than complaining no one here is doing your research for you?
Arabia, shouldn't they be running a budget surplus, so why the bonds? Or bonds in short supply due to lack of need. Some Saudi wants to build a 1,500 meter high tower, how useless is that? Does that sound like a country that needs to issue bonds.
Grant's Interest Rate Observer has been covering the Iraqi dinar appreciation against the USD, so you're onto something. I am looking forward to reading your posts after you do your research.
Thanks.
Where does one find them for sale?
Rich_Lather | 03.13.08 - 11:23 pm
Apparently, no one knows. I did a search for a Dubai Index yesterday, and didn't come up with much.
If you find out, please let us know.
misean:
i was telling my friend today at lunch that i'm having such a weird time with this 'recession.'
i've RIF'ed, taken on a subtenant, wound up a venture, buckled down and taken to heart the slow down.
but had one or two things broken a different way, i would never had really FELT the "recession" in my soul.
but they did so i did.
thats why this loan closing today just makes me ecstatic - i've been eating, drinking, sleeping a recession and now something (more) good has happened in the last few weeks
i can say with confidence that my own personal world has decidedly trended upwards for some weeks now (more to that story later) but i wouldnt say that the economy is headed that way.
as before i believed we were taking market share more than just growing and i hoped to continue that. we'll see
in DC, sure housing prices are dropping but the overall economy really feels sound.
havent been to mid america or nj or wherever recently though.
i'm way too small to be a bellweather for the economy LOL no kidding. so i'll take my lucky breaks just as they are, lucky breaks. maybe one day soon it'll change but i dont see it happening.
on another note i'm now working with a major land developer in NoVa and we just broke ground on a new phase of 200+ lots all of which are presold to major HB. we're also beginning the development of over 2MM sqft of commercial/retail/industrial as well as gobbling up BK'ed and defaulted land parcels.
expanding in this market is exhilarating and seems like the absolute best thing to do.
when they called it a 'sellers' market it paid to be a seller. now that its a buyer's market, it pays to be a buyer for sure.
Misean writes:
Inflationary Pipeline,
"Well, first of all, it's our money"
Well, no it's not. It's the FRB's. It loans it to us. We don't have any money. The private FRB does.
Thanks, I'll be here till saturday.
Cheers,
Misean | 03.13.08 - 11:24 pm |
didnt he talk about saudi money?? Or SWF Money wich they got for delivering goods?? so its actual there Money??
I agree with christofay, we need to think through whether banks going bankrupt is really as scary as everyone makes it out to be.
Airlines go bankrupt all the time and still fly. Surely banks can go bankrupt and keep the ATMs and credit card systems working?
"Too big to fail" is just bullshit.
Mish has predicted the dollar rebound for a LOOOONG time and been wrong at every turn!
January 3, 2006
The US$ should resume its downward slide as the FED puts an end to rate hikes. However, the bottom may already be in for a long time. There will not be a quick plunge back to the February March 2005 bottom as central banks everywhere are in a complete mess.
September 09, 2006
I predict the dollar will not make and hold a new low.
December 09, 2006
To put my neck on the line I suspect the US$ will hold the 80 level (or perhaps do a headfake below then reverse). Longer term, the US$ is indeed toast but that can be quite a ways off from here.
I think Devito would be a wonderful Bernanke. I say Krusty the Klown with a Porky Pig voice-over plays Paulson.
Rich_Lather,
"This comment section sucks...How do I buy Saudi government bonds?"
How dare you you! Pipsqueak! What, I'm hear to do your investing research for you!? Who the F&^% do you think you are? Go blow your self dill hole.
Tell you what. I'll give you my paypal account...you drop in $1000 and I'll give you investment advise.
What a frigging blow job you are. Glod! I wanna just smack you upside the head.
Cheers,
"Where's a reliable place to get CDs in euros?"
Check out Everbank. They probably do.
dc1000,
Glad to hear it.
I seriously had a toast to ou today.
Cheers,
why do you want Euros there is no recession and the Dollar will rebound soon...
dc1000:
i'm way too small to be a bellweather for the economy LOL no kidding. so i'll take my lucky breaks just as they are, lucky breaks.
Dude:
a. as my better half points out, "luck" is the intersection of opportunity and hard work.
b. one of the persistent joys of the 'net, apart from being able to find out where to get Saudi bonds, is to take all of the disparate views and create something coherent.
c. If you can pull that off in NoVa - I lived 6 years in SS, MD and worked in DC - right now, more power to you.
ML Implode reports EMC layoff notices:
They are not going IPO?
misean-
thanks for the toast. though i'd be more flattered if i didnt think you were toasting one fool or another every 5 minutes or so each and every night.
'ere's to that ole boy dc1000- oops did i spill some on you darling?
'ere 'ere....now what was i talking about? oh yes that CR chap, what a chap, 'ere's a toast to you CR!
lol
" Reality is the Illusion that comes with a Lack of Alcohol"
Gargleblaster for all chaps and chapetes..
dc1000,
When have I cheered anybody else?
I mean I was flinging you a compliment and you throw me an insult...adn I didn't deserve it.
That's cold dude.
What have I done to you?
Cheers,
Rich_Lather
Why don't you get off your ass and use the info super hype-way to do your own damn digging.
Regardi Saudi bonds, I'd bet a nickel that since Islamic law prohibits the charging of interest, they do not issue bonds. There are ways around this issue for financing purposes, but I doubt that bonds actually exist.
If you are the type that wants to buy direct foreign sovereign bonds, and the way you gather your info is by posting a request on an unrelated blog, then I think you have shown that you are not the type who should be buying foreign sovereign bonds.
What next - post on your myspace page "anyone know about some sweet hedge funds?"
I suggest a savings account for you.
"ML Implode reports EMC layoff notices"
Wait, it's not too late for WB to buy them!
Pipelines:
If you really want to know what I'm doing right now, the honest - swear to God - truth is researching breastfeeding.
Really.
And the angle will look at breastfeeding as an example of pure supply/demand economics.
I prefer macroeconomics, myself.
homedad-
i hear ya. as i always say my 'wisdom' is hard fought. meaning, i learn everything the hard way and i work hard to find out which way is the right way. a new MBA every so often earned in the school of life.
Wrt to NoVa development -
sure prices blow, sure things are over built for now. but the unstoppable growth of the DC area shall not be stopped. only slowed, delayed, impacted etc, but as sure as time marches on, the DC metroplexarcana area will continue to grow.
get in the way of that growth and you've got a real thing going there. will it take 5-7-10 years from now? hell ya!
but, buying and preparing and starting now on new initiatives set to deliver in 2013 is the smart, prudent and GD'ed hopefully lucrative thing to do. especially if you can buy all cash and lever up when the time is right.
uh misean i think we had a total misfire there.
i was only alluding to our common regularity for enjoying 'tini time....
that is all.
christofay:
The last time Dirk Cheney went to Saudi Arabia, home of the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11, the Saudis read Dirk the riot act, our Iraq policy changed from supporting the Shites to underground support of the Sunnis tribes/gangs/militias/allies and creating a rival power to the Shites Iraq govt.
We still support those Iranian friendly Shiites and fight along side them against Sadr friendly Shiites. Hakim gets the red carpet treatment in the WH by Bush and Ahmadinejad gets the red carpet treatment in Iraq by Hakim.
"jkinthewoods writes:
Regarding Saudi bonds, I'd bet a nickel that since Islamic law prohibits the charging of interest, they do not issue bonds."
Jeebus, slaps hand against forehead, why am I so stupid?
dc1000,
OK....
Pubish stuff.
Right mate, but it seemed a bit sardonic, given a gratuitous post. Eh, Eff it, let me buy another round and we'll discuss tomorrow's meltdown. You catch the tab next time my friend.
Cheers,
Viewing with alarm writes:
It still gets back to the fact that we have consumed more than we produced and paid for it with debt. There is no way out but lower consumption.
What we are looking at is a fairly typical C/A currency adjustment.
sharkbait | 03.13.08 - 10:07 pm | #
Those two comments pretty much sum it up. Ending BWII won't be a terrible thing at all for Americans unless they don't want to produce goods of the same approximate value to those we consume - do that and the dollar restrengthens and this becomes a 'nothing burger'.
If we don't want to makes stuff equivalent to what we consume then we are screwed and deserve to be screwed.
It will be a rough wake up call but not the end of the world.
Poll: how many of you have actually worked in an enterprise that produced something? My guess is most here have at one time or another but that most no longer do, that we are mostly 'parasites'. You might consider getting closer to the 'production side'... if BWII goes kaput - we'll all be laborers again.
Jim | 03.13.08 - 11:09 pm | #
Where's a reliable place to get CDs in euros?
HSBC Singapore
Surely banks can go bankrupt and keep the ATMs and credit card systems working?
Indeed.
I'm not saying there are no issues with banks failing. Certainly the FDIC would be hard pressed to finance a tidal wave.
But I fail to see the value of all the gyrations to protect foolish shareholders whose investments should, by all rights, be wiped out.
Misean:
Why preserve those at the top whilst the rest writh in pain.
No need when they can just announce
number2son:
S&P has announced the worst of the subprime fiasco is over and home prices will rise!
And the true believers respond
AllenM:
look at that homebuilder rally today!!!
We all know who is going to pay for this one.
dryfly,
Regardless if we want to...we shall have to.
This is the BIG wake up call.
IMHO.
Cheers,
dryfly old friend.
good evening.
Jim | 03.13.08 - 11:09 pm | #
Where's a reliable place to get CDs in euros?
HSBC Singapore
You dont need to go there. Get the forms (email). Fill em, get your ID attested at a US HSBC branch. Send forms back.
Do everything else online
dry or others,
if i wanted to provide real estate to people who are currently benefiting from this adjustment wrt to the dollar, imports, exports, production etc -
do you think that industrial, warehouse, etc might be strong moving forward?
how long could this trend last? is it tectonic or fleeting? i'm guessing it'll last a decade or more. but who knows?
will the dollar drop make us make more stuff? is there conclusive data one way or the other?
what are you seeing on the 'streets'???
dryfly writes:
If we don't want to makes stuff equivalent to what we consume then we are screwed and deserve to be screwed.
Not really. There are other ways !!!!
The dollar's record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to prop up the currency in 13 years, say strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Dollar's Slump Puts Morgan, Goldman on `Intervention Watch' - Bloomberg.com
dc1000,
I don't know your market. In socal it appears to be evaporating...but what the hell do I know.
You're in DC. If Fed gov't employees habituate you places who cares,,,they print the money.
i don't know how to help you on that one bud...
Cheers,
it's sad, very sad to see the country go this way.
had we continued to narrow the debt as we doing before dubya, how different things might have been.
oh well that's all water under the dam now...or water under the reactor as we used to say in pennsylvania.
looks like we, collectively, are gonna get whats commin to us.
mt
ps to rich lather or whom ever...the reason this thread is kinda not action oriented ,i guess, is that most here realize there ain't nothin the feds gonna do to repair the damage...just forestall the inevitable....feeling resigned
mock turtle,
"had we continued to narrow the debt as we doing before dubya"
There was such before W. Do you have evidence of that...I'd like to see it.
Cheers,
will the dollar drop make us make more stuff? is there conclusive data one way or the other?
CR posted a chart showing import deficit a few days ago - oil related deficit WAY BIGGER... deficit related to other stuff declining.
So 'yes' we are buying less stuff offshore, making more stuff for ourselves and exporting more too. How long that holds up in a declining consumption market is hard to say. I do know anyone related to automotive or building hardware is in trouble no matter if they are domestic or foreign.
One thing I have seen lately are companies in hard pressed sectors coming to guys like me looking for 'jobs with margin'. These are firms that got pretty bloated in the boom.
I've been pretty cranky lately myself & told a few of them 'you can find margin - but not by raising price - you have to find margin by pushing cost out the bottom & that means cutting some of the fluff management has become accustomed too'. They weren't real happy with that - I won't be working with them.
Rich_Lather,
Where have you looked? What have you found? Why not call a Canadian bank, like RBofScotland, and ask what they offer? Opening a CDN acct can't be that hard, if you have a CDN address.
I'm positive that the Cayman Islands will offer you what you want. But the servicing fees are very high, and eternal, on your CI corporation, so you're either rich or you're SOL in that direction.
I've opened an acct in the past in Poland, for a client. That's not very promising either; the paperwork requires an attorney, etc, etc, etc.
March 11 WSJ Op Ed page 11 sec A21: David Malpass Chief Economist Bear Stearns: " A clear presidential preference for a stronger dollar could cause an immediate leap in financial markets. U.S. stocks and corporate bonds are attractively priced-except for the dollar risk". His last remark: "The President should state a preference for a stronger and stable dollar. It has a good chance of stopping the credit crunch. It's free and easy. And let's face it: Other measures aren't working. So it is written so it shall be. Sheesh! Were in big trouble.
dc, good to see ya back pal, its been a while. However, if you want to bet on the rebound in the DC area, wouldnt it make more sense to buy some of the existing assets that are for sale now rather than add to the supply with a new development?
dc,
grats, night,
All others,
Cheers,
Not really. There are other ways !!!!
The dollar's record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to prop up the currency in 13 years, say strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Bloomberg.com refer=home
krish | 03.14.08 - 12:02 am | #
krish - they can prop up the dollar & keep exporting to us anytime they want to... all they have to do is start buying some of our commercial paper, ABS, MBS and everything else we've 'contained' over the last few decades.
Think they're gonna do that? I wouldn't put them past it but if they do - it just kicks the can even farther down the road.
BTW - up until about last October I would have bet money those foreign CBs would prop up the dollar to maintain their export advantage... went on record here many times saying so. I am now in the camp where I believe they have had enough and are actively looking for an alternative to BWII - the thing holding it up is none of them want THEIR currency to be it (it would be a huge job killer in the long run & politically destabilizing).
dry-
you crack me up. i've followed your advice over the years and you dont sell me anything. i've rif'ed, cut, de-fluffed and gotten real 'cuz you told me your daddy said always watch cash. too bad the other guys dont read this blog. i've got another guy in my old office while i'm a minority tenant in my own prime lease space.
dirk - likewise. i've been busy man, damn, so busy. miss my kids worse than this place. but yeah, buying stuff thats already built or needing repositioning or whatever is fine but we're dealing with a large site with a 20 year old cost basis. just makes sense.
from Krish's article 12:02:
The dollar's record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to prop up the currency in 13 years, say strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The key word is "may" as further reading shows:
A united bid to aid the dollar may still not be around the corner. For now, a falling U.S. currency and surging euro are giving support to a weakening American economy by spurring its exports. It's also helping the ECB contain inflation, which is at a 14-year high of 3.2 percent.
And considering the source I wouldn't bank on it. Why would the Eu want to prop up the US when they are benefitting:
The United States continues to dominate the ranks of the world's biggest companies, but to a much lesser degree than it did even a decade ago. It now accounts for nine of the Top 25, followed closely by Europe with eight. In 1998, the United States accounted for as many as 18 of the Top 25 companies, followed by Europe with five.
Comment: Dollar decline reshuffles deck of titans
| Reuters
dryfly: "I've been pretty cranky lately myself & told a few of them 'you can find margin - but not by raising price - you have to find margin by pushing cost out the bottom & that means cutting some of the fluff management has become accustomed too'. They weren't real happy with that - I won't be working with them."
Exactly right. I'm surveying everyone in a niche, now, for the best possible prices; however, the big boys have the infrastructure to sustain themselves via federal contracts even in a downturn; so they've a lotta sex appeal. Doing a deal with a lowball player and then finding them on death's door and your goods in their pipeline is the kiss of economic death.
you crack me up. i've followed your advice over the years and you dont sell me anything. i've rif'ed, cut, de-fluffed and gotten real 'cuz you told me your daddy said always watch cash. too bad the other guys dont read this blog. i've got another guy in my old office while i'm a minority tenant in my own prime lease space.
I was in a plant lately and told the owners - two young guys who bought a machine shop for god sake, what possessed them - anyway I told them they got a potential gold mine IF they can survive the next 2-3 years. They are 'small and getting smaller' & might make it if the cash burn doesn't burn them up.
One of the things I told them was to use the skills they got from previous jobs to help them build the skill set of this shop. All it does now is service runs and low grade low quality stuff. They do what they do well but not enough value to ask for margin.
But they could do a lot more - one of the guys ran a foundry & now with machining experience he could put the two together & step in to the void left as Asians step out (and to certain degree they are).
If the dollar stays weak - we aren't going to have anywhere near the domestic capacity in either of those sectors (foundry products or machining & fabrication) - imports will become too expensive with a weak dollar. I'm already seeing it - it will get nothing but worse.
But the guys have to be upgrading their offering now - can't wait for the recovery 'to pay for it' or they'll miss it. Nor can they borrow to get there since they are broke. That means 'bootstrapping & guerrilla marketing' - a rust belt redo.
Anyone who gets good at that now is going to be prosperous in the future. The days of buying profits with cheap leverage are gone - you have to make your profits now. Most can't.
its taken me decades but oh my god, a penny saved is a penny earned
Exactly right. I'm surveying everyone in a niche, now, for the best possible prices; however, the big boys have the infrastructure to sustain themselves via federal contracts even in a downturn; so they've a lotta sex appeal. Doing a deal with a lowball player and then finding them on death's door and your goods in their pipeline is the kiss of economic death.
GaudiaRay | 03.14.08 - 12:24 am | #
I hear ya - but some of those big guys with contracts also have huge liabilities and can go down fast - think Enron & WorldCom.
Meanwhile some of the smaller guys are small because they stick to the knitting (do what they do well) & don't chase fantasies (like off balance sheet vehicles).
It is so hard to tell in both cases - I don't envy the buyers, they have a MUCH tougher job.
Misean-Still out there? Maybe this will cheer you up:
YouTube - Old Time God
Warning, profane language.
Great insight dryfly
dryfly, that sounds hard.
you mean we will have to work?
can we all just be day traders like that guy from another thread advertised?
Japan breaks through 12,400 to new 2.5 year low. Yen about to go through 100 again.
Today was the clearest sign yet that these "market pumping events" are orchestrated and pre-announced to insiders. It was like all of a sudden everybody just knew it was the S&P thing that boosted the market, even though the S&P thing was basically meaningless.
I think the pattern is that a small group of hedge funds and prop desk get the word on the pump of the day from the PPT. They prime the pump and hope to draw in as many suckers as possible. Then, they gradually unwind. With each pump, it seems like the well is running a little more dry.
MT
What goes around comes around.
By 2004 who Bush was and who he represented was clear. Yet he was re-elected. Plus the support for the invasion etc gives a clear read on our fellow citizens. That is the sad thing to see our country undergoing.
It was interesting to see how Canada (which always reminds me of 1950's American) was able to coalesce and maybe found a workable solution to save themselves.
But the US is going to hoist itself on its own petard of a policy of utter self-interest.
The Evolution-based theory of parochial altruism bases the replacement of self-interest by cooperation upon the strict punishment of cheaters. Else utter self interest returns.
From Mish: "Expect the worse to get worse." Nobody is giving me any inkling that it's getting any better,'' said Arnold Goldner, a 56-year-old owner of a jewelry repair business in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Goldner said he hasn't been able to sell $5 million in auction-rate preferred bonds sold by closed-end funds from Nuveen Investments Inc. and BlackRock Inc., which borrow in the market alongside cities, hospitals, colleges and student lenders. I'm going to invent a mattress with a built in vault.
dc1000
Even though it is generally true that it is good to start a business during a recession there are caveats. You have to figure out how to survive the recession, as a new business, without cashflow; and be right about how long the recession will last.
Sounds like you are buying up BKed land and not expecting to make money for the next 10 years. You got deep pockets my friend.
shark. wish those were my pockets. or not. funny thing i learned along the way. you dont need money actually. all you need is OPM. whats 80 limiteds to worry about when you've got complete control and freedom to wait?
and/or be working deals that just simply have a 5 year cycle?
plus, i think warehouse/flex/industrial real estate is gonna be hot hot hot
I think this country has some hope -- especially if Obama becomes president. We need someone intelligent to run this crazy place.
We've been ruled by greedy politicians who serve big business for way to long. We will all pay for being stupid enough to elect these people to office.
If the country continues on its present course the rich will get richer and the middle class in America will become extinct.
Vote for change people!
dc1000:
Just what do you mean by "flex"?
Hybrid between industrial and warehouse?
Thanks
dry fly,
i've been pitching the idea seriously to several of my friends and family members about going in together to buy out one of those vacated machine shops in michigan and take the stuff back to chicago and open a fabrication plant.
my great grandfather/family survived the great depression by throwing his life's savings and every ounce of his energy to opening a foundry that ended up totally booming when the new deal projects started rolling along and during WWII.
it's clear that there will HAVE to be an industrial resurgence in this country. we won't be able to afford the stuff from abroad, and I don't think anyone wants to live a stone age existence. so given no other alternative, sweat and blood will have to rebuild this country.
Pull out a $1 bill and rub it on your butt. Not very absorbant is it?
Not saying it's worth much...just saying.
Cheers,
Misean
that may start a trend
dc1000 -- I think you either need deep pockets or collateral or investment to start a new business. Since we are entering the worst recession since 1930 I hope for your sake that you do have deep pockets or collateral even though you might not want to admit it here.
Also if you want to talk up real estate may be you should start your own blog?
"Goldner said he hasn't been able to sell $5 million in auction-rate preferred bonds sold by closed-end funds from Nuveen Investments "
http://www.nuveen.com/etf/web_files/Closed-End%20Exchange-Traded%20Funds/Nuveen%20ARPS%20FINAL.pdf
Sharkbait:
I'm a conservative dude and I think that this guy is actually the way to go forward.
Not because of the left/right angle - I know already my taxes are going up - but he seems to have the FDR effect, especially with the kids. Highly frightening times re currency, economy, end of empire(?), war, etc. and he does inspire hope.
McCain? Granted, has character and does cross aisle so able to work with other side. But also too damned old.
Clinton? She's the scary one.
Suggest that you try to read a book called "Generations" (author?), which came out about 20 years ago, but with some interesting generational research thru our history. Obama seems to speak to that.
ah i only moonlight here once every few months.
homedad: flex is just that. can swing between office and light industrial mainly.
It seems to me that no one will come out of this particularly well. The US is obviously screwed. The Europeans will now be even less competitive with too strong a Euro. The Chinese are going to see massive oversupply and less demand from their main customer, the US which leads to evaporation of profit margins and finally, layoffs.
Basically, a world recession. Even the Saudi's will get screwed in the end as oil demand collapses and everyone realizes that peak oil is a myth (at least until another 30 years).
Since the US will not allow deflation no matter what, the rest of the world, who has been financing our consumption, will now realize that their booms were merely inflationary flare-ups.
So where to invest? Large cap US stocks will benefit from a weaker dollar. Stick to the ones that are less effected by recession and that are relatively cheap. Pfizer, JNJ, Procter & Gamble, AIG.
plus, i think warehouse/flex/industrial real estate is gonna be hot hot hot
You might want to do a little 'market research'. See if you can't talk to some of the folks who would be renting the things and ask them what they are looking for, price points, etc.
I see unbelievable amounts of the stuff going up around Chicago (south burbs near I80 and I57). So much I have a very hard time believing it isn't going to be heavily saturated.
If I was going to put in warehouse/flex build I'd look for proximity to airport freight operations... I see more companies shipping via air freight than at anytime in my life. Lot sizes & packages are smaller (we aren't talking coal shipments to Newcastle)... but security & fast turn are VERY important - hast to be a higher quality build.
That and warehouse/support combination operations... say an important international supplier to large local mfg company... the supplier will often site a warehouse near the plant AND staff the office with applications engineers & sales staff. Twofers.
Most of the flex build I've seen is worthless - doesn't do industrial well, doesn't do warehouse well, doesn't do retail well. A nofer.
But I don't know the biz well at all - just know nothing opinion.
its taken me decades but oh my god, a penny saved is a penny earned
penny & a half in our brackets . . .
dryfly:
Given the cost of fuel, wouldn't it be better going forward to instead look at proximity to rail? Or is that too far out on the time horizon to be a factor?
Regardi Saudi bonds, I'd bet a nickel that since Islamic law prohibits the charging of interest, they do not issue bonds.
Doesn't stop them from collecting interest on the US bonds they hold, does it?
The Saudis in fact did issue bonds back in the 80's when oil prices were low and they needed to borrow money. Saudi Arabia bond offering
However the worm has turned and as we all know the Saudis are now lenders, not borrowers. Thus no Saudi bonds.
AIG ?
They have a trillion in assets. If you can figure them out, sure. I actually spent some time looking at their CDS exposure and ended up more concerned about their other assets.
i've been pitching the idea seriously to several of my friends and family members about going in together to buy out one of those vacated machine shops in michigan and take the stuff back to chicago and open a fabrication plant.
Sounds like a plan though I'm not sure I'd move the equipment to Chicago - there is glut of capacity there now (the shop I looked at was on the Illinois-Wisconsin border).
But I think you are on the right track - feel free to bounce ideas off me if you do. My rates here are very affordable but you get what you pay for...
DaveJ
Invest in electric cars or such ...
A yen saved is a yen earned
Speaking of rail....
http://bnsf.com/investors/weeklyunits/20080308.pdf
The drop in containers related to imports from China.
Given the cost of fuel, wouldn't it be better going forward to instead look at proximity to rail? Or is that too far out on the time horizon to be a factor?
For cheap bulk commodities & large lots of mfg'd product that can be containerized - rail is great.
For small onesies and twosies shipments - especially expensive stuff that has to get somewhere far fast - air is the only way to go. There are a lot of these kinds of things.
Point is the facility dc builds needs to match the target use real well in a market where there is already too many buildings... that is if he wants it to sell.
Dryfly....where are you located in Chicago?
I'm in the North Central Suburbs.
Dryfly....where are you located in Chicago?
I live in Minnesota - SE of the Twin Cities about an hour or so. I just sell industrial stuff in Chicago & Milwaukee and also Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Minnesota... I'm in Chicago-Milwaukee area about one week out of every month. I was just there the last few days.
It's funny but I've never really been in the Southern suburbs. It's well over an hour in any kind of traffic.
U.S. dollar hits low of 99.84 yen in Asia, before recovering
Bloomberg:
NIKKEI -241.20 @ 12,182.24 (only 37 points above the DOW!!!!)
USD-JPY 100.17
OIL 109.78
GOLD 998.70
Yep, just another boring day in the markets.
Oh, and Bloomberg also shows US stock futures decidedly in the red.
gas-parino must be busy making up his friday rumor.
"gas-parino must be busy making up his friday rumor"
He's done supplying the crack rock, s&p delivered today. Who's turn is it this time?
Economy Hammered by Toxic Blend of Ailments
One Ill Compounds Another, Hammering the Economy - NY Times
The economy makes it to the top of the front page of the NYT. Above the Spitzer story. Interesting....
US stock futures decidedly in the red.
Then the U. S. markets open and down, but something happens during the day and the markets end flattish or slightly up.
There is happy talk about some bail out or some always wrong prognosticator makes an announcement.
Coals pulled out of fire, again. I know some day it isn't going to work but shsssh.
christofay:
Do you have a link to the stock futures? I tried to find the site, but failed!
OT - Now that the economy is edging past Spitzer for the MSM headline, what will the next Wag-the-Dog-esque distraction be?
A celebrity death?
Bush visits Africa again?
Another link:
Managers Caught in Bank Debt Trap
US Edition - Financial News Online
Folks! All this whining here how you got screwed! Blame Bernanke, Greenspan, Bush, Canada, whoever, if you lose the game. But you just fool yourself. It's the game, not some character masks in it. The game is called capitalism and it has been like this, since capitalism emerged in Europe in the 16th century, and spread all over the world since then. Some win, many lose. Since you all want to be part of the game you will have to accept that you might end up on the loser side. If you don't like it quit the game, but you can't have the game without the rules.
In one of his first major speeches since becoming Secretary of Agriculture, Ed Schafer addressed the 4,500 attending the Commodity Classic in Nashville, Tenn., and told them this is a time for celebrating agriculture in America.
It's time to celebrate agriculture today, not only for our record exports and record prices for corn, wheat and soybeans, but also for the record level of farm income, as well, Schafer said.
Schafer also expressed his gratitude for being selected to head what he called the People's Department.
Re: the S&P announcement that subprime writedowns are complete, this wording struck me as choice:
"when we dissect the percentage of write-downs taken against various types of exposures, in our opinion the magnitude of some write-downs is greater than any reasonable estimate of ultimate losses.
Oh, ultimate losses?
Silly us! We thought what their statement meant was that banks have fully written off the worthless subprime MBS's they hold.
What they really meant was that only an unreasonable person could think that more than half those home loans will eventually fail.
I have said many times that the healing is by:
Nobel prize-winner Ed Phelps pens:
Our Uncertain Economy
Note: Roubini systemic failure a little closer. Something like a Triffin's Delima here, as deficit spending increased to foster growth it has the side-effect of making the dollar unattractive to investors...so as Fed attempts unclog the liquidity pipe, each time it does, mark-to-market corrections devalue shockingly the assets, seizing up credit in other areas...
Premium content | Economist.com
Yves Smith's comments regarding the S&P forecast, filed late last night:
Page not found « naked capitalism
Implicit in Kasriel's charts and analysis is that the Fed must lead, not the psychology. Clearly the Fed's cuts were anticipated, as the graphs show, and once a run starts there is no catching it. At some point the Fed must judge that it has done what it can reasonable do to try to lessen - not prevent- a recession and it must then hold or raise. It also must break the public perception that it is responsive to complaints by Friends of Ben.
Money-Market Rate for Pounds Soars Most Since August (Update1)
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in pounds for three months increased by the most since Aug. 16, signaling an agreement this week by central banks to combat the credit squeeze by injecting $240 billion into money markets is failing.
The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, climbed 9 basis points to 5.93 percent, the highest since Dec. 31, the British Bankers' Association said today. The comparable euro rate rose 2 basis points to 4.62 percent, the most since Jan. 4.
[snip]
Meanwhile, another yen fueled pump in progress...
"its taken me decades but oh my god, a penny saved is a penny earned"
I paid a buck forty for some run of the mill mercury dimes yesterday.
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer prices in the U.S. were unexpectedly unchanged in February as fuel costs dropped, easing concern that inflation would keep accelerating as the economy slows.
Does anyone know a good planet to move too.
Barney Frank wants the govt to refinance up to $300 billion of 'troubled' mortgages with FHA guarantees/lenders to accept 10% below current appraisal:
Rep. Frank: Use $300 Billion to Fight Foreclosures : NPR
Aired on this morning's Morning Edition - NPR.
CPI tame, and guess what? Time to celebrate! Fuel prices held steady in Feb. I guess my gas tank grew because my fill-up bills sure didn't stay flat.
Try this for the naked capitalism post:
Is That S&P Forecast of Subprime "Bottom" Good News? « naked capitalism
And futures are up sharply following the benign CPI report from the government.
I'm gonna print that report out and take it to my grocery store and gas station to show them that their price increases are out of line with what the gumbnit is reporting as fact.
Ever get the feeling that no one in authority ever tells the truth?
CPI has become useless. Include food, energy and the cost of credit and it is way up.
CPI has become useless. Include food, energy and the cost of credit and it is way up.
But that's not what the report said:
8:30U.S. Feb. CPI energy prices down 0.5% , lowest since Aug.
How can gas go up but energy prices be down?
Gross, SEC Fail to Break Auction-Rate Bond Paralysis (Update1)
By Jeremy R. Cooke
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaires Bill Gross and Wilbur Ross and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission failed to restore confidence in the $330 billion auction-rate bond market, as borrowing costs for states and municipalities rose.
Auctions for borrowers from San Francisco to Houston were unsuccessful even after Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund, and Ross, who invests in distressed companies, said they were buying municipal debt to take advantage of rising yields. Thirty-year tax-exempt yields rose 6 basis points to 4.89 percent after falling 18 basis points last week from a three-year high of 5.01 percent, Municipal Market Advisors data show.
More than 67 percent of auctions failed this week, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. The market became unhinged last month, after dealers who supported the securities for more than two decades stopped bidding for bonds investors didn't want. Auction rates jumped to 6.73 percent this month from an average 3.94 percent in the previous year, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said.
[snip]
Bear Stearns can't fund itself. BSC needs to go to the NY Federal Reserve through JPM and this is good news??
The company is otherwise bust, and the stock rallies 10%???
No automotive paradise: $4 gas in Hawaii
[snip]
While the price of oil climbs above $110 a barrel, most Americans dread the day they will have to pay $4. On this tropical island and a few stations in California, $4 gas has already arrived, straining the pocketbooks of residents and businesses.
[snip]
Bear Stearns bailout on the tape.
Fed gives money to JP Morgan through the discount window to the Bear who can't access the window as a PD.
Hey Idiot
i hope u took your BSC profits when u had a chance.
the BSC vultures feeding on each other.
No way, this is great news!! Sure, it was insolvent yesterday, but BSC has financing now. The sky is the limit!!!
say good bye to bsc hello bull market
bail out after bail out after bail out; til all those with the pull to be bailed out are bailed out; then....
and if a de-coupling is still thought to be secure, why is it every time our stock market goes down, everybody else's in europe and asia does too?
why is the rest of the world not as confident about keeping their $ in their stock markets as we are about them doing so?
i don't know the answers to these questions; to tell the truth, i can barely formulate them, really
as a friend says, somebody will buy the bear now, but they sure won't be paying $60 . . . . . .
So when the CEO said that the idea that they needed money was "ridiculous!"...what...two days ago? He was lying? My worldview is shattered.
Relax, guys. It's a three-hour cruise.
I am with you 12th Percentile. I am crushed this morning.
I do not know who said it on this blog but "ridiculous" must have had another meaning to him when he said it versus what the investing public thought.
Bring out the bailout monkeys! Dow up 150 today.
we haven't heard from Tanta in awhile, hope she's ok...
Former National Bureau of Economic Research President Martin Feldstein said that the current recession could be "substantially more severe" than the last few.
TREASURIES-Bonds extend gains on severe recession remarks
| Reuters
strangely enough, as the discount window it's still not the same thing as an emergency 75 bps cut in FF.
just look at FF versus the 2 yr treasury, the Fed's still not opened the floodgates
Good one, burnside.
The real problem is less consumption by US consumers. An estimated $500 billion per year less. All the rest is just a bail out of funny money. Worldwide manufacturing was already facing deflationary pressures due to overcapacity.
Do the Fed is keeping BSC on life support via JPM?
What counterparty worry??
I guess I can quit worrying about my UltraShort funds.
the weather started getting rough
the tiny ship was tossed
if not for the courage of the fearless crew
the minnow would be lost
"Relax, guys. It's a three-hour cruise.
burnside"
Thanks, burnside, now I feel better.
i don't get it. BSC is on the primary dealer list of the FRB. why can't they directly access the discount window?
I can't believe that Bear beat Shiti to the outhouse, uh, I mean the Fed. same thing.
ah yes. its nice to have big friends in hi places also willing to beat the sh*t out of BSC.
o.k., nice rally, now lets get back bottom-feeding...anyone think we'll close down 200pts or more. I do.
come to papa.
--
Fed's bail out of Bear Stearns proves that we have Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City in control of the financial system.
How much money the top guys at BSC made when they were doing the bad things that are causing problems today two years ago?
I am sure that born-and-bred American dopes don't see this as a financial criminal activity, but it sure is.
Demise of the American econo-political is not far in the future, because that is the only way Crooks will be dislodged. American dopes are delusional if they think that voting can change things for the better. The past voting has gotten us here!
Jas
" The past voting has gotten us here!
Jas"
No thanks to you and other hypocrites like yourself.
yen just broke 100
Bear is done.
what a bunch of pussies. last 3d were quite the setup.
But not the Bears, starting to wake up this time of year, hungry.
yeah, shred the bulls.
Actually, Jas, had Al Gore been elected, the US path of destruction would have been far less.
And you proudly contributed to that awful whore Bush.
What the hell is your feeble-brained excuse?
ooooooooooh. blowin' hard out there . . .
LOL, whatever hedge fund pump monkies tried to pump BSC pre mkt got devoured by their own brethren.
i hope u boys spent the last coupla days reloading the shorts...
Ironic that their name is Bear, no?
Bear ushers in the 'Bear market'.
Karma is back, and the souls of many starving polar bears are seeking vengeance.
Is this our crash, idoc?
i said the other day that BSC started the downtrend last spring and they will be the ones to start the final phases.
I'm an Idiot
i sure hope u got out during that 10 min chance u had.
Glod at $1004.80
!!
Ben Bernanke is a simpleton.
OT
Has there ever been any research into the efficacy of techncal analysis? Are there enough followers to make it self reinforcing(ex the battles around Dow 12k) does it work outright or is it just reading tea leaves/ doubling down on mercury retrogrades?
Buy Glod !! =:-@
I don't really know, but for some reason, from time past, I've had the idea that Aramco and all that belong to the Saudi Arabian citizens (royalty most of all). You're either a Saudi citizen or not and you can't buy debt or shares or any part of Saudi industry or assets if you are not. Well, think about, they can't tolerate infidels visiting certain cities. How could they allow them to acquire an interest in their industries?
Fuel Flat?? Around here prices at the pump just leaped over the 4 dollar mark.
Yikes if you need premium. We have diesel trucks and at 10mpg it takes some bucks to have fun. We may just ride the horses on the local trails.
"ecoshift writes:
I'm convinced.
Where's a reliable place to get CDs in euros?"
Don't buy euros now at 1.56, dude, its waay overbought
Gold to hit $1,500 in about 2 years as Fed continues to debase currency while the economy sputters.
Marcus Aurelius, et al,
I was searching for bonds when I should have been searching for sukuk, the islamic equivalent.
I hate to post "this board sucks", but it does yield a bountiful harvest of replies.
Thanks for your input.