Hi CR, just curious - if the recession started in December, why do we measure from October's peak and not, say, 1 December? Isn't what happened two months previous kind of moot?
Well, I think it is time to dust off the trusty word processor and see if my investment property HELOC owner is willing to take 40% of the balance to clear the loan.
They just might take the bait.
Tanta!
Remember my crack about paying mils for tranches- are we there yet?
sterlingerl, this is just the common definition of a bear market in the stock market and is really independent of a recession. So we start at the market peak, and measure the percent decline.
well if you got a plan to be a bear
do it my way short the markets everywhere
get your kicks en route from the pigs
well it winds from emerging markets to LA
more than two trillion losses on the way
get your steak en route to wall street
Well well short the retailers, down to insurers
Banks and covered calls look oh so pretty
youll short automakers , tech, new Casino
Ethanol , refiners, dont forget Homebuilders
restaurants, automakers, steel producers
If you get hip to this kind of tip
and take that plunge into the abyss
get your take en route 66
Ok, I now see this as a criminal conspiracy between The Fed and wall street banks which is resulting in antitrust violations!
Re: Aiding and Abetting/Accessory
A criminal charge of aiding and abetting or accessory can usually be brought against anyone who helps in the commission of a crime, though legal distinctions vary by state. A person charged with aiding and abetting or accessory is usually not present when the crime itself is committed, but he or she has knowledge of the crime before or after the fact, and may assist in its commission through advice, actions, or financial support. Depending on the degree of involvement, the offender's participation in the crime may rise to the level of conspiracy.
Re: HEDGE FUND OPERATIONS
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 1998
U.S. House of Representatives,
Committee on Banking and Financial Services,
Washington, DC.
Let me just conclude by saying that the terms of the rescue package engendered by the Fed also raise troubling questions of financial concentration and antitrust. As a group working together, the new owners can have a greater impact on markets than in competition with one another. In this regard, it should be understood that the Fed's unprecedented extension of the too-big-to-fail doctrine to a hedge fund does not insulate the fund and its new owners from the constraints of the Sherman and Clayton acts.
The bailout may involve a tendency toward concentration that the Justice Department has an obligation to review.
If Bear Stearns were to go under, "it has the potential of bringing down the whole market," said Richard Bove, an analyst at Punk, Ziegel & Co. "This is the crescendo of the crisis."
Hey a new broom sweeps clean. Out with the old, in with the new. Why not just throw it out and get a new one? No point in salvaging a hopeless wreck.
PPT equals the mythical beast known as the Plunge Protection Team. It is known to come out of its lair when the market starts acting like a free market and obeys the law of gravity.
From Lehman taken from CFC playbook.
``We are extremely pleased with the success of the syndicated facility and view this as a strong signal from the market and our key bank relationships,'' said Paolo Tonucci, Lehman's global treasurer, in the statement.
These are code words for get the hell out of Lehma
I know it was posted on the other thread (thanks sterlingirl (sp)) but I thought it was so funny (or not really funny at all) that I had to post the link....
Bloomberg: March 14: Lehman Brothers, largest mortgage underwriter in U.S., obtained a $2 billion, unsecured, three-year credit line from 40 banks. "The unsecured facility replaces an existing credit line"; JPMorgan and Citigroup led the effort.
Why not 4 billion from 80 banks. Why does Lehman need so many banks? In the old days (4 mos ago) they could get 2 billion from 1 bank. Sheesh
SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) -- Antique store owners in lower Manhattan, ticket vendors at India's Taj Mahal and Brazilian business executives heading to China all have one thing in common these days: They don't want U.S. dollars.
Hit by a free fall with no end in sight, the once mighty U.S. dollar is no longer just crashing on currency markets and making life more expensive for American tourists and business people abroad; its clout is evaporating worldwide as foreign businesses and individuals turn to other currencies.
Experts say the bleak U.S. economic forecast means it will take years for the greenback to recover its value and prestige.
((((((((((((((((((((
Value? Prestige? Recover? Stop the jokes, I can't take any more, I'm laughing so hard it hurts.
While Bear Stearns was burning, Jimmy Cayne, the Wall Street firm's chief executive, was playing bridge.
The 74-year-old banker, a world-class bridge player, came under heavy fire from shareholders for spending much of last July at a tournament in Nashville or playing golf. At the time two Bear Stearns hedge funds were in crisis and eventually collapsed.
Cayne insisted that he had remained in control of the bank throughout but in January announced that he would step aside, although he remains chairman. His one time protege, Warren Spector, who had also been at the bridge tournament, was ousted in August.
A one-time scrap iron salesman, Cayne joined Bear Stearns in 1969 and became one of the firm's top brokers. He succeeded Alan Greenberg as chief executive in 1993 and reshaped Bear Stearns from a brokerage to fully fledged merchant bank.
After the firm wrote off $1.9bn (£0.9bn) in losses relating to the meltdown in the home loans industry, Cayne and other members of the management said they would forgo their bonuses. Still, Cayne, who took home £34m in pay in 2006, is unlikely to be impoverished.
Playing bridge is probably okay, even Warren B plays bridge. Now if he'd been playing a violin or a fiddle I'd really be pissed.
I don't mind the Fed stepping in and preventing a total collapse and crisis unwind. I will mind if it turns out that it is bailing out BSC shareholders in doing so.
If you want to see a bear market confirmation wait until next week when Bernanke drops the ff rate again and the market plunges. In 2000, when the US Fed kept dropping while foreign central banks held strong, the market plunged and it will do it again this time. What is important is not absolute rates, but the relative difference in rates between the US and other countries. When people find they can get 3% more in Europe than in the US they will move their money and foreign capital will return home. Foreigners haven't totally caught on yet but they will and they can't lower rates themselves this time because competition for raw materials from China will cause too much inflation. They will get through by letting their currency rise so they can export the same, while our currency sinks and we export more.
typo -- I meant to write that Europe will be able to import more with their highly valued currency while we will import less and export more due to our cheap dollars.
"So the question is: if Bear Stearns screwed up big time - as it did - with huge leverage, reckless investments, lousy risk management and massive underestimation of liquidity risk why should the US taxpayer bail out this firm and its shareholders? First fully wipe out those shareholders, then fire all the senior management and have the government take over such a bankrupt institution before a penny of public money is wasted in bailing it out. Instead now the use of public money to bail out financial institutions is spreading from banking ones to non banking ones. The Fed should at least give a clear and public explanation of why such extremely exceptional - and almost never used - intervention was justified"
If Bear Sterns employees cared about their company, they should agree to an across the board pay cut of 40% or so, and give up other perks and benefits, rather than rely on government welfare to bail them out.
You know, I'd probably like you a bit more if you were more civil. When debating, you only hammer when they get weak. You bring out the hammer every time.
I don't disagree with you necessarily but, man, your tone is so over bearing, it really does you no good.
Thanks for the visit and the nice comment. I'll be the general opposite of most mature musicians: I'll have gone through the drug addiction and recovery, psychotic episodes, failed marriages, and all the other dangerous dysfunctions before I release my debut CD. About 90% there.
It's not a bear market.
It's a bear world. Everything is going to cr*p.
It may not be a bear, but it sure looks like a cub.
Not enough Reverb on the vocal.
Check out my tunes. Way enough Reverb.
Also some tasty Cowbell!
Hi CR, just curious - if the recession started in December, why do we measure from October's peak and not, say, 1 December? Isn't what happened two months previous kind of moot?
I wonder if there is a correlation between lower srock prices and lower earnings?
Have a great weekend.
Well, I think it is time to dust off the trusty word processor and see if my investment property HELOC owner is willing to take 40% of the balance to clear the loan.
They just might take the bait.
Tanta!
Remember my crack about paying mils for tranches- are we there yet?
Someday this war's gonna end...
Some sunny "news"
Barton Biggs who now runs a $1.5B Traxis Partners hedge fund says we are in for a 1,000 point rally on the dow "next week or the week after"
How long before Traxis goes under do you suppose?
Barton Biggs Expects 1,000-Point Gain in Dow Average (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Before someone else beats me to it.
"How would that look in Euros?"
sterlingerl, this is just the common definition of a bear market in the stock market and is really independent of a recession. So we start at the market peak, and measure the percent decline.
It's just for fun ...
Best Wishes.
What else is there to say when you see charts like this:
Products and Services Overview
Friggin vertical!!!
Yes folks, 2304.5 bps spread.
23%!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
More Bull/Bear Market fun:
Safe Haven | Big SPX Daily Moves
In Chairman Mao We Trust
Coming soon to a dollar bill near you...
Oh for five snakes!
I broke out the Pinot early today. Seems the chimp and crew are flinging poo at the visitors.
The Care Bears had better take care.
Happy weekend - wonder about that full point rate cut market is predicting?
Next up, Lehman...
Fear not. There are plenty of bubble markets out there that are still in good shape.
Brazil, among others, is just off its highs and ready to blast higher with the next emergency rate cut rumor.
If you can't find a market in the midst of a melt-up, you're not trying hard enough.
CR made me do it,
Route 66
well if you got a plan to be a bear
do it my way short the markets everywhere
get your kicks en route from the pigs
well it winds from emerging markets to LA
more than two trillion losses on the way
get your steak en route to wall street
Well well short the retailers, down to insurers
Banks and covered calls look oh so pretty
youll short automakers , tech, new Casino
Ethanol , refiners, dont forget Homebuilders
restaurants, automakers, steel producers
If you get hip to this kind of tip
and take that plunge into the abyss
get your take en route 66
"CR", your best site for information AND entertainment (most reliably by O-Joe and Seb).
Ok, I now see this as a criminal conspiracy between The Fed and wall street banks which is resulting in antitrust violations!
Re: Aiding and Abetting/Accessory
A criminal charge of aiding and abetting or accessory can usually be brought against anyone who helps in the commission of a crime, though legal distinctions vary by state. A person charged with aiding and abetting or accessory is usually not present when the crime itself is committed, but he or she has knowledge of the crime before or after the fact, and may assist in its commission through advice, actions, or financial support. Depending on the degree of involvement, the offender's participation in the crime may rise to the level of conspiracy.
Re: HEDGE FUND OPERATIONS
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 1998
U.S. House of Representatives,
Committee on Banking and Financial Services,
Washington, DC.
Office of the Clerk - U.S. House of Representatives hba51526_0.HTM
Let me just conclude by saying that the terms of the rescue package engendered by the Fed also raise troubling questions of financial concentration and antitrust. As a group working together, the new owners can have a greater impact on markets than in competition with one another. In this regard, it should be understood that the Fed's unprecedented extension of the too-big-to-fail doctrine to a hedge fund does not insulate the fund and its new owners from the constraints of the Sherman and Clayton acts.
The bailout may involve a tendency toward concentration that the Justice Department has an obligation to review.
If Bear Stearns were to go under, "it has the potential of bringing down the whole market," said Richard Bove, an analyst at Punk, Ziegel & Co. "This is the crescendo of the crisis."
Hey a new broom sweeps clean. Out with the old, in with the new. Why not just throw it out and get a new one? No point in salvaging a hopeless wreck.
Anonymous writes:
9691.htm
More Bull/Bear Market fun:
404 Not Found
Great Article.
I just wish the rally in PM stocks would materialize. There seems to be sufficient non tinfoil hat support around for it.
Anyone....
Whats this PPT that people are talking about? Each reference is obscure and I cant crack it. (Or keep up with the volume on these wonderful days!)
If you can't find a market in the midst of a melt-up, you're not trying hard enough.
Ac, Thanks, the dumbass bulls make sure us bears stay in business.
PPT equals the mythical beast known as the Plunge Protection Team. It is known to come out of its lair when the market starts acting like a free market and obeys the law of gravity.
12th, Ha! thanks. I knew it wasnt the professional poker tour
I like it...
As usual, the big sharks swim away, buoyed by their powerful protectors, while the common clay sinks ever deeper into the mire.
When the rich are eating Niagara starch with the rest of the poor, then I'll enjoy the news.
From Lehman taken from CFC playbook.
``We are extremely pleased with the success of the syndicated facility and view this as a strong signal from the market and our key bank relationships,'' said Paolo Tonucci, Lehman's global treasurer, in the statement.
These are code words for get the hell out of Lehma
PWG
I know it was posted on the other thread (thanks sterlingirl (sp)) but I thought it was so funny (or not really funny at all) that I had to post the link....
Bloomberg: March 14: Lehman Brothers, largest mortgage underwriter in U.S., obtained a $2 billion, unsecured, three-year credit line from 40 banks. "The unsecured facility replaces an existing credit line"; JPMorgan and Citigroup led the effort.
Why not 4 billion from 80 banks. Why does Lehman need so many banks? In the old days (4 mos ago) they could get 2 billion from 1 bank. Sheesh
SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) -- Antique store owners in lower Manhattan, ticket vendors at India's Taj Mahal and Brazilian business executives heading to China all have one thing in common these days: They don't want U.S. dollars.
Hit by a free fall with no end in sight, the once mighty U.S. dollar is no longer just crashing on currency markets and making life more expensive for American tourists and business people abroad; its clout is evaporating worldwide as foreign businesses and individuals turn to other currencies.
Experts say the bleak U.S. economic forecast means it will take years for the greenback to recover its value and prestige.
((((((((((((((((((((
Value? Prestige? Recover? Stop the jokes, I can't take any more, I'm laughing so hard it hurts.
UBS looks to be the next player, down big AH:
UBS: Message Board for UBS AG (NEW) - Yahoo! Finance
I like Nouriel's take on things. One down, which other one to go? And how soon?
RGE - Step 9 of the Financial Meltdown: "one or two large and systemically important broker dealers" will "go belly up"
AllenM,
your post at 6:23 is among the scariest I've ever seen.
That is unfreakinbeleivable. This is out of control. WOW!!!
Next we will have some Lehmanade.
While Bear Stearns was burning, Jimmy Cayne, the Wall Street firm's chief executive, was playing bridge.
The 74-year-old banker, a world-class bridge player, came under heavy fire from shareholders for spending much of last July at a tournament in Nashville or playing golf. At the time two Bear Stearns hedge funds were in crisis and eventually collapsed.
Cayne insisted that he had remained in control of the bank throughout but in January announced that he would step aside, although he remains chairman. His one time protege, Warren Spector, who had also been at the bridge tournament, was ousted in August.
A one-time scrap iron salesman, Cayne joined Bear Stearns in 1969 and became one of the firm's top brokers. He succeeded Alan Greenberg as chief executive in 1993 and reshaped Bear Stearns from a brokerage to fully fledged merchant bank.
After the firm wrote off $1.9bn (£0.9bn) in losses relating to the meltdown in the home loans industry, Cayne and other members of the management said they would forgo their bonuses. Still, Cayne, who took home £34m in pay in 2006, is unlikely to be impoverished.
Playing bridge is probably okay, even Warren B plays bridge. Now if he'd been playing a violin or a fiddle I'd really be pissed.
Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions
St. Louis Fed: Series: BOGNONBR, Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions
Cliff dive updated as of today.
I don't mind the Fed stepping in and preventing a total collapse and crisis unwind. I will mind if it turns out that it is bailing out BSC shareholders in doing so.
I wonder if Ben would do the same for General Motors like he did for BSC?
Well, it has been a very busy week for me. I could not believe that BSC CEO did not know I was paying a visit to his company.
Don't these investment bank people listen to Conjure Bag? I mean really, did these clowns really think that this party would last forever?
Carlyle was the warm-up this week. Nothing like taking a little bling away from the Bushies to start the week with a bang!
I think I will pay a visit to the CEOs of Lehman, WaMu and Citi in the near future...
Peace Out!
If you want to see a bear market confirmation wait until next week when Bernanke drops the ff rate again and the market plunges. In 2000, when the US Fed kept dropping while foreign central banks held strong, the market plunged and it will do it again this time. What is important is not absolute rates, but the relative difference in rates between the US and other countries. When people find they can get 3% more in Europe than in the US they will move their money and foreign capital will return home. Foreigners haven't totally caught on yet but they will and they can't lower rates themselves this time because competition for raw materials from China will cause too much inflation. They will get through by letting their currency rise so they can export the same, while our currency sinks and we export more.
dollar down
typo -- I meant to write that Europe will be able to import more with their highly valued currency while we will import less and export more due to our cheap dollars.
To export things, wouldn't we have to make them first?
Anyone else beginning to suspect that a 125 bp cut might be possible, to stay ahead of expectations?
Nouriel's says:
"So the question is: if Bear Stearns screwed up big time - as it did - with huge leverage, reckless investments, lousy risk management and massive underestimation of liquidity risk why should the US taxpayer bail out this firm and its shareholders? First fully wipe out those shareholders, then fire all the senior management and have the government take over such a bankrupt institution before a penny of public money is wasted in bailing it out. Instead now the use of public money to bail out financial institutions is spreading from banking ones to non banking ones. The Fed should at least give a clear and public explanation of why such extremely exceptional - and almost never used - intervention was justified"
James,
Nice guitar work. Really good.
Cheers,
If Bear Sterns employees cared about their company, they should agree to an across the board pay cut of 40% or so, and give up other perks and benefits, rather than rely on government welfare to bail them out.
I have always wondered why it's called a Bear Market. Now I know.
Bah! Nuke it from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
Cheers,
JPM will get a look at Bear Stearns book. The Fed will agree to finance BS inventory. JPM will acquire BS at pennies on the dollar.
--
Since many big players and I do futures, S&P Futures were down 20.5% from peak to trough -- 1586.5 to 1262.0.
If it walks like a ... it is a Bear market, but it is just warming up. It is headed for 80%+.
Dopes need to be taken care of and the Scam Market will do its share.
Jas
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX:$XEU&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t94532218358&r=3691
that's the s&p divided by euros. definitely a bear market from that perspective.
Jas,
You know, I'd probably like you a bit more if you were more civil. When debating, you only hammer when they get weak. You bring out the hammer every time.
I don't disagree with you necessarily but, man, your tone is so over bearing, it really does you no good.
For what it's worth.
Cheers,
I wonder why we there is so little discussion of unwinding of carry trade? With dollar down so much, it seems about time.
Raj,
Soon the US will take the place of Japan related to carry trade. It will happen and it will not take that long.
Is it just me, or is the artist of "Bernanke Blues" tone deaf?
Misean,
Thanks for the visit and the nice comment. I'll be the general opposite of most mature musicians: I'll have gone through the drug addiction and recovery, psychotic episodes, failed marriages, and all the other dangerous dysfunctions before I release my debut CD. About 90% there.
(BTW, I composed all the backing tracks as well.)
James, great music at your site. Thanks for sharing!
Is it just me, or is the artist of "Bernanke Blues" tone deaf?
Cooking ramen in my percolator
Only as tone deaf as his subject.
"In Chairman Mao We Trust" ... TOO FUNNY!