Great, force a deal with Bear, doing the antitrust dance and then bring the chairs into a circle and play musical dominos, and see who gets the next round of taxpayer cash!
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. all disclosed in regulatory filings Tuesday that they are cooperating with requests for information from various, but unspecified, regulatory and government agencies. Officials at the companies either declined to comment, or could not immediately be reached.
I think an explicit guarantee of the GSE's debt would have been a better move. That is what brought down Carlyle and will cause more problems if spreads increase.
Is $2.00 per share going to calm the markets. What about the genius investor who put millions in at 150.00 per share. He's probably going to have an issue with the accounting firm he hired. Sheesh
so how does this figure into the larger scheme of things, like severity of recession and alike? Thanks for your help in answering this question. I appreciate the talent in this blog, and would be more than curious about your answer.
NEW YORK - JPMorgan Chase says it will acquire rival Bear Stearns for $2 a share in a move aimed at averting spreading panic in the financial markets over tightening credit.
The Fed has realised that the investment banks can't wait until the TSLF becomes available later this month and so they've had to come up with another facility that's up and running tomorrow. They haven't even had time to think of an acronym for this one yet.
You folks underestimate the fed et al. It looks like the CDS market could come in quite a bit. Who wants to bet on financial firms going under when in the teeth of the panic the Fed gets them sold for a tuna salad sandwich. Pretty clever if you ask me.
It'll be perceived as a positive for the markets,'' said E. William Stone, who oversees $77 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia.It puts a floor under all the financials. The longer-term thesis is that the Fed won't let good companies fail based on lack of liquidity and a crisis of confidence.''
A floor? Sure, at negative enterprise value we have a floor. And this is a posive? This guy is running $77bil?
jg, I think the Fed is on track for at least 50bps if not 75 or 100 this week. They will probably cut this rate too.
Futures jumped on this announcement - if there had been no buyout, the market would have crashed. JPMorgan saves the day ... but what if Lehman, Citi or Merrill falls? Especially Citi ...
"put millions in at 150.00 per share. He's probably going to have an isssue"
Well, ringing up the lawyers right now!
Lets see if an info circular is going to be drafted. Lets see when the vote is. Shareholders do have rights maybe some would rather see it all in the crapper to make a blunt point.
In reality, BSC did fail. The token $2 basically wipes out the equity. The Fed steps in with JPM to keep the system running. It's not really different than the S&L crisis of the early 90's. I doubt that BSC management will get much severence. The layoffs will be massive. BSC failed.
@madjackmcmad: The Fed has realised that the investment banks can't wait until the TSLF becomes available later this month and so they've had to come up with another facility that's up and running tomorrow. They haven't even had time to think of an acronym for this one yet.
I think it's going to be called the "Drive-up window."
I'm watching Maria B. on CNBC with a TAPED program! Learning all about the Friday bailout. Yawn. I guess they don't pay her enough to work on Sunday nights.
Estimated transaction-related costs of approximately $6B pretax
Litigation
Cost of de-leveraging
Conforming accounting
Consolidation severance, technology and facilities
What was that? An emergency rate cut? But my prediction was for in the morning, and then who could have forseen a deuce a share for the bear? DANG......!!!!!
A question about that JPM presentation posted: does "no material adverse change clause" mean there is no "material adverse change clause"? Or are they referring to the usual clause allowing the buyer an out in the event of a material adverse change as a "no material adverse change clause"?
I hate bulletpoint presentations.... (No offense, risk_capital, I'm glad you posted this one.)
I seem to be in the minority here but for $30bil maximum Bernanke was ablr to pour oil on the water.
Remember that Bush insisted on a $50bil Lagniappe to business just "because he could do it".
BTW Although the Fed is taking the worst $30bil this clearly is not all the bad stuff SC had. So does Morgan also inherit additional risk which value must be subtracted from actual BSC value?
The following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ from those set forth in the
forward-looking statements: ... the failure of Bear Stearns
stockholders to approve the merger;...
Anybody have any idea what kind of subsidy this is to the banks if the Federal Reserve were to loan the 400B dollars it's announced?
Check my math...
If we assume that the primary dealers are borrowing money at 3.25% and the collateral pays 8% the spread is 4.75%.
4.75% spread on (announced) 400B dollars is 19B dollars per year. Not much...
But, if we assume that banks NIM is 3% and there is 13T dollars of assets on the banks balance sheets we get 390B dollars.
Total losses are estimated at 300-500B?
So, banks should be able to start expanding balance sheets again in 8-12 months from August?
Of course, that assumes continued "robust" demand for long term loans from a strong economy. A severe recession would depress long term rates and cut NIM. Japanese banks NIM is closer to 1.5%.
IF indeed its non-recourse, it means that the lender can look only to the value of the pledged property for repayment, instead of recourse (or general obligation) debt.
It means if they lend 90 cents against a security interest in a dollars worth of paper, no matter what that paper becomes worth, thats all they (the lender) will collect.
It is fundamentally no different from a put.
Basically, if this is non-recourse the Fed gave jpm a put option on $30B of stuff.
We would need to know what haircut but I'm presuming worst case this is at the money meaning the Fed (ie us) guaranteed to jpm that $30B of bsc assets would never (whatever "never" means in this context) be worth less than $30B
Most people are asleep at the switch the earlier reports said jpm was concerned re risk and needed some kind of backstop
This doesnt seem to have been pursued
It appears rather than guarantee no losses from operations and counterparty trades and the like the fed guaranteed no losses on the assets taken in.
This is a disguised refloat of the bsc balance sheet by a loan; in other words, jpm can conceptually if not fasb/gaap wise write up the value of these $30B to whatever amt the fed lent and use that as a floor
Anyone know for sure if this is non-recourse and if so are the other term facilities, particularly the new one, non-recourse?
It would be, from a mathematics standpoint, an incredible transfer from the balance sheet of the Fed to these other players if they gave low haircut non-recourse loans on BBB crap
Think of it like this
If John McCain or Obama or Hilary had a house worth, say, $800,000, down from $1,000,000 last year, and a buddy of theirs lent them $1,000,000 against it non-recourse, the press and the fbi would be all over it like ugly on an ape...
Is this to prevent the collapse of Mother Merrill?
Great, force a deal with Bear, doing the antitrust dance and then bring the chairs into a circle and play musical dominos, and see who gets the next round of taxpayer cash!
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. all disclosed in regulatory filings Tuesday that they are cooperating with requests for information from various, but unspecified, regulatory and government agencies. Officials at the companies either declined to comment, or could not immediately be reached.
It's hitting the fan.
My new investing mantra:
WWCD
(what would conjure do)
421 online
All contained ...right?
Conjure, after closing out a couple of shorts tomorrow, will be 100% cash, dollars and euros.
SKF to 160 tomorrow?
mp, dollars???
Desperately trying to get ahead of something.
I think an explicit guarantee of the GSE's debt would have been a better move. That is what brought down Carlyle and will cause more problems if spreads increase.
If you are going to panic, panic early,
Is $2.00 per share going to calm the markets. What about the genius investor who put millions in at 150.00 per share. He's probably going to have an issue with the accounting firm he hired. Sheesh
so how does this figure into the larger scheme of things, like severity of recession and alike? Thanks for your help in answering this question. I appreciate the talent in this blog, and would be more than curious about your answer.
NEW YORK - JPMorgan Chase says it will acquire rival Bear Stearns for $2 a share in a move aimed at averting spreading panic in the financial markets over tightening credit.
The Fed has realised that the investment banks can't wait until the TSLF becomes available later this month and so they've had to come up with another facility that's up and running tomorrow. They haven't even had time to think of an acronym for this one yet.
$2 is averting panic?
Weapons check
Ammo check
gold check
silver check
cash check
no debt check
farmland check
Ok carry o
"They haven't even had time to think of an acronym for this one yet."
How about PAN-ICK?!
I guess they can skip that earnings conference call.
From last thread - yes on Friday Moody's downgraded $80 billion of BSC's securities which may be event of default (?)
"mp, dollars???"
Not for long.
Jill writes:
"They haven't even had time to think of an acronym for this one yet."
SOP Seat of pant
or
SHTF
Dollar getting stronger in Japa
If the Fed wants to avert a panic, a good first step might be for them to stop panicking themselves.
Whoever is ramping the futures has balls of steel.
Gold up $5 1/2 in past 40 minutes
You can bet there's some strong arming of the Yen to keep it underwater. Look at the volatility of those trades!
of visitors going parabolic - up 145 in 6 minutes...
cash in $CDN...
I wonder if the monolines sold any bsc CDS's.
Maybe it does not matter, but does this imply a rate cut of only 0.25% on Tues./Wed.?
Hmmm... dollar weakening rapidly again.
Five minutes of bliss have passed?
DJ INDUSTRIAL AVG Mar 2008 (CBOT:ZD.H08.E) Up +88 at 12070
????
Was down 169 then reversed after fed announcement.
"participants in securitization markets"
Why don't they just come right out and say it?
This means securitzation CONDUITS, and it signals that banks can no longer honor their liquidity commitments to the shadow banking system.
600 - going going...
You folks underestimate the fed et al. It looks like the CDS market could come in quite a bit. Who wants to bet on financial firms going under when in the teeth of the panic the Fed gets them sold for a tuna salad sandwich. Pretty clever if you ask me.
"If the Fed wants to avert a panic, a good first step might be for them to stop panicking themselves."
Remember, this isn't a panic. It's an spontaneous high speed retreat in all directions.
You can always make stuff sound better by using more words.
jg writes: "Maybe it does not matter, but does this imply a rate cut of only 0.25% on Tues./Wed.?"
-- Depends on how Monday goes. They are flying by the seat of their pants, 1930s style.
And this must be a good news somehow... U.S. Futures are all up... madness!
Bloomberg.com
(Dow Future was as high as 110 a few minutes back)
I'm going to get the wife and kids and huddle around the bloomberg tonight. This is better than Orson Wells war of the worlds.
Historic!
Spooky, futures are coming back down fast.
Video headline on bloomberg:
"3/14 McCarty Says Bear STearns Shares May Fall to Zero"
I wouldn't think they would trade on Monday?
Heres a gem quote:
It'll be perceived as a positive for the markets,'' said E. William Stone, who oversees $77 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia.It puts a floor under all the financials. The longer-term thesis is that the Fed won't let good companies fail based on lack of liquidity and a crisis of confidence.''
A floor? Sure, at negative enterprise value we have a floor. And this is a posive? This guy is running $77bil?
Nikkei futures up 190... man
Bloomberg.com
zig-
Expired
Have you tipped CR and Tanta lately????
Conjure, after closing out a couple of shorts tomorrow, will be 100% cash, dollars and euros.
Very similar here.
Good to know my spirit conduit is working!
First I'm going to Safeway and stock up.
jg, I think the Fed is on track for at least 50bps if not 75 or 100 this week. They will probably cut this rate too.
Futures jumped on this announcement - if there had been no buyout, the market would have crashed. JPMorgan saves the day ... but what if Lehman, Citi or Merrill falls? Especially Citi ...
Best to all.
"put millions in at 150.00 per share. He's probably going to have an isssue"
Well, ringing up the lawyers right now!
Lets see if an info circular is going to be drafted. Lets see when the vote is. Shareholders do have rights maybe some would rather see it all in the crapper to make a blunt point.
This little episode comes to mind:
The Stock Market Crash of 1929
History in the making...
gold actually passed $1010 for a few minutes. thats up $15 on close..
What Barley said. This thing hasn't been voted by the shareholders yet.
Shouldn't they have put "investment grade" in quotes?
CR - Lets set up a lotto grid and take wagers (in spirit 'cause online stuff is not allowed in the US) on next spot to tickle the markets. My bet: C
reminder" link to live dow futures Sorry. Page not found.
CR, zig-
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/260966901x0x180609/8cbd90fb-0f16-4238-a908-e0a07a904682/JPM_Bear%20FINAL.pdf
CR- "...but what if Lehman, Citi or Merrill falls?"
As Martha Stewart might say, "Cash is a good thing."
650 Visitors Online WTF?
Moral Hazard
In reality, BSC did fail. The token $2 basically wipes out the equity. The Fed steps in with JPM to keep the system running. It's not really different than the S&L crisis of the early 90's. I doubt that BSC management will get much severence. The layoffs will be massive. BSC failed.
Alan on the apology and ringing handshake...http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/edbdbcf6-f360-11dc-b6bc-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
670!
Gold up $6 in past 45 minute
CR visitors at 675 - up %100 in past 45 minutes.
Euro just made a new all-time high. Markets will interprete this as a sign of Fed willingness to assume indefinite amounts of bad debt.
Where's Misean??
670 Visitors
If there's a market crash...
They will come
"Special Fed lending facility in place; non-recourse facility to manage up
to $30B +/- of illiquid assets, largely mortgage-related"
So it is a corporate buyout based on value - right...@ 30B free money it is great news JPM shares will move nicely, I'm sure
Markets will interprete this as a sign of Fed willingness to assume indefinite amounts of bad debt.
I guess the deflation - inflation argument is finally OVER.
All, I posted the details of the deal, and the access for the conference call (starting in a few minutes).
Should be interesting ....
Best Wishes.
MoneyHoney reporting on the good times in Europe...there's a sell signal...
@madjackmcmad:
The Fed has realised that the investment banks can't wait until the TSLF becomes available later this month and so they've had to come up with another facility that's up and running tomorrow. They haven't even had time to think of an acronym for this one yet.
I think it's going to be called the "Drive-up window."
cd
780 visitors on a sunday evening ?
arent you guys watching nba or something similar ?
Doc, last night we had several hundred inclement weather blog friends.
I'm watching "when barn animals attack!"
Great piece about a pet deer attacking a female jogger.
"Drive-up window" indeed, cd! That's a $30 Billion non-recourse facility. And they got the building, too!
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/260967780x0x180609/8cbd90fb-0f16-4238-a908-e0a07a904682/JPM_Bear%20FINAL.pdf
Slides for the meeting.
Thanks for the heads up, Risk Capital
No, we are watching the meltdown conjure predicted.
I know we aren't supposed to mention religion, but the apocalypse does come to mind.
The last time I felt like this was when I was hitting the live weather sattelites every five minutes as Katrina approached land.
``It puts a floor under all the financials."
Yeah, 2 bucks a share for the lot.
arent you guys watching nba or something similar ?
dr.dan | 03.16.08 - 7:56 pm | #
Rockets already won and NCAA brackets announced...this is a little bit crazier, without the scantily clad cheerleaders
Still don't know what to make of the futures being up big on this.
I'd have to shoot against a big up open, just as I'd cover into a big down open.
I'm watching Maria B. on CNBC with a TAPED program! Learning all about the Friday bailout. Yawn. I guess they don't pay her enough to work on Sunday nights.
I think that given a few minutes to think about it, the futures might go down again.
I repeat, we haven't even seen all the foreclosures yet. The resets will continue for this month and the next.
Estimated transaction-related costs of approximately $6B pretax
Litigation
Cost of de-leveraging
Conforming accounting
Consolidation severance, technology and facilities
zack, ym's are down 80 now...sweet AH trading.
Dow cash currently 11900, s&p cash 1279 - implied levels from spreadbetting - mkt doesnt like bailout and fed panic, gold on a tear 1015 now
What was that? An emergency rate cut? But my prediction was for in the morning, and then who could have forseen a deuce a share for the bear? DANG......!!!!!
A question about that JPM presentation posted: does "no material adverse change clause" mean there is no "material adverse change clause"? Or are they referring to the usual clause allowing the buyer an out in the event of a material adverse change as a "no material adverse change clause"?
I hate bulletpoint presentations.... (No offense, risk_capital, I'm glad you posted this one.)
crash never occurs when everyone is watching..impossible..
I've got a name for the Fed's new lending facility: Omnibus High Speed Helping Investment Transactions. The acronym is already on everyone's lips.
Anyone have NIKKEI live?
spooky 7:42, It's the Fed, they don't have balls of steel, they have a printing press.
Gump
I seem to be in the minority here but for $30bil maximum Bernanke was ablr to pour oil on the water.
Remember that Bush insisted on a $50bil Lagniappe to business just "because he could do it".
BTW Although the Fed is taking the worst $30bil this clearly is not all the bad stuff SC had. So does Morgan also inherit additional risk which value must be subtracted from actual BSC value?
Conference Call is starting.
Will tonight's visitors online catch up to gold?
The following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ from those set forth in the
forward-looking statements: ... the failure of Bear Stearns
stockholders to approve the merger;...
Take it or get nothing
Can we arrest the President now?
What is the difference between the mini Dow and big Dow futures?
r0m30 writes:
Anyone have NIKKEI live?
CNBC streaming Asia on their web site
NIKKEI 225 down 131.48 (9:05)
tks Mark
dollar below 98 ye
Anybody have any idea what kind of subsidy this is to the banks if the Federal Reserve were to loan the 400B dollars it's announced?
Check my math...
If we assume that the primary dealers are borrowing money at 3.25% and the collateral pays 8% the spread is 4.75%.
4.75% spread on (announced) 400B dollars is 19B dollars per year. Not much...
But, if we assume that banks NIM is 3% and there is 13T dollars of assets on the banks balance sheets we get 390B dollars.
Total losses are estimated at 300-500B?
So, banks should be able to start expanding balance sheets again in 8-12 months from August?
Of course, that assumes continued "robust" demand for long term loans from a strong economy. A severe recession would depress long term rates and cut NIM. Japanese banks NIM is closer to 1.5%.
Ha, ha, Brian J!
This has got to be causing some G10 CB friction.
Anyone seen Sebastian?
I don't mind if Sebastian shows up.
It's the return of JJ I'm dreading.
Dollar at 71
Sebastian cashed in some of that New Century stock and is spending sunday on his yacht with Kristen.
Nikkei down 255 at 9:11 eastern time
What is the meaning of "non-recourse" in this context??
Jim
Where's Tanta?
Mark D: Nikkei Live
Nikkei.com - Market Live
Gump
811 visitors - that a record?
856 @ 8:23
When they say the Nikkei is down, which group of stocks do they mean?
Nikkei -420 at 9:24. Yen at 97.79. Looks like a fun morning tomorrow.
Must be alot of foreign traders checking in for news and opinion.
ewbies... click ads !
811 visitors - that a record?
Asa | Homepage | 03.16.08 - 8:27 pm | #
I believe so.
First I'm going to Safeway and stock up.
For some reason, a share of Bear Sterns stock for less than a gallon of milk just seems weird.
bigchubasco | 03.16.08 - 7:49 pm | #
lawyerliz, NIKKEI = Nikkei.com - Market Live
LOL - How does this help the shareholders?.... You'll have to ask that to Bear Sterns!!
Or a hundred shares costing less than a couple of bags of groceries.
Dollar just busted through 97 Yen.
96.62 at 9:32
cd
Gold up $23
884 visitors
Dude, thnx. Can't get kitco to load.
Try AMPEX
If kitco doesn't work, bulliondirect.com is great...I've used them...great experience.
Buy BSC at $2 or less. Bankruptcy is better option and if sale gets shareholder vote, JPM will do well with new capabilities.
Short everything else.
Lawyerliz: "The apocolypse"? You
You mean Goldman Sachs is next?
IF indeed its non-recourse, it means that the lender can look only to the value of the pledged property for repayment, instead of recourse (or general obligation) debt.
It means if they lend 90 cents against a security interest in a dollars worth of paper, no matter what that paper becomes worth, thats all they (the lender) will collect.
It is fundamentally no different from a put.
Basically, if this is non-recourse the Fed gave jpm a put option on $30B of stuff.
We would need to know what haircut but I'm presuming worst case this is at the money meaning the Fed (ie us) guaranteed to jpm that $30B of bsc assets would never (whatever "never" means in this context) be worth less than $30B
Most people are asleep at the switch the earlier reports said jpm was concerned re risk and needed some kind of backstop
This doesnt seem to have been pursued
It appears rather than guarantee no losses from operations and counterparty trades and the like the fed guaranteed no losses on the assets taken in.
This is a disguised refloat of the bsc balance sheet by a loan; in other words, jpm can conceptually if not fasb/gaap wise write up the value of these $30B to whatever amt the fed lent and use that as a floor
Anyone know for sure if this is non-recourse and if so are the other term facilities, particularly the new one, non-recourse?
It would be, from a mathematics standpoint, an incredible transfer from the balance sheet of the Fed to these other players if they gave low haircut non-recourse loans on BBB crap
Think of it like this
If John McCain or Obama or Hilary had a house worth, say, $800,000, down from $1,000,000 last year, and a buddy of theirs lent them $1,000,000 against it non-recourse, the press and the fbi would be all over it like ugly on an ape...