I understand there might be a systemic risk event. Is this slowing it, preventing it, or just concentrating it? Who consolidates next? Can the FED buy all of the failed financial institutions?
Read London Telegraph Ambrose Evans Pritchard Column today. CR, I apologize for pimping Pritchards work but it is always valuable to see yourself as others see you. Ambrose is declaring the beginning of the end for the dollar as reserve currency. Inflation arrives with a vengence until the crash.
I think the Fed has now lost the confidence of the remaining few that still believed that they could fix this mess. And just think, while we just entered recession, the job losses, massive layoffs, and other business/bank failures are yet to come.
"Market conditions are such that prophecies become self-fulfilling in this environment."
I can hear Sebastian now, "The economy was doing just fine until everyone started demanding their money back."
Sorry Seb, couldn't resist the good-naturedly dig. Although I vigorously defend your right to express your views, I think you missed the boat on this one - Wright B turns out to be Wrong B.
can anyone substantiate the danger at lehman with some numbers (lets compare with that of BSC)
I'm working on some analysis now. I imagine conjure is ferociously blasting through excel too. Frankly, I didn't think the next down was LEH. But I can tell you that if you look at the put activity and compare what happened to Bear in the weeks before, you'll have an idea of where the bets are.
The Company invests in certain distressed debt instruments of which the issuers are VIEs. The Company has
determined that it is the primary beneficiary of such VIEs.
The Company has made investments in entities that own power plants. Certain entities are VIEs of which the
Company is the primary beneficiary.
To bolster its position in energy, Bear recently
announced an agreement to acquire a portfolio of
power and gas contracts, as well as other assets,
from The Williams Companies, Inc. DBRS views
this transaction favorably, because it gives Bear
Stearns a geographically diverse generation
portfolio that complements the Companys
growing energy-trading activities. The physical
power plant tolling agreements and power
contracts as well as information systems will add
substantially to the Companys existing equity
ownership in various power-related assets and
enhance Bear Energys growing capabilities
The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. (NYSE:BSC) today announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire substantially all of the power and natural gas assets comprising the power trading business of Williams Power Company, Inc., an energy trading and marketing subsidiary of The Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE:WMB). Bear Energy LP, a Houston-based, wholly owned subsidiary of Bear Stearns, will assume the portfolio of assets, which includes approximately 7700 megawatts of gas-fired tolling capacity, 1800 megawatts of full requirements power supply contracts, and an associated trading book. Bear Energy will also acquire various information systems and seek to hire Williams Power Company employees.
The transaction, which is subject to regulatory and other approvals, is expected to close during Bear Stearns fiscal fourth quarter ending November 30, 2007, and is expected to be accretive to earnings and earnings per share in fiscal 2008.
This transaction marks a substantial leap forward for our energy business, commented Bear Stearns chairman and chief executive officer James E. Cayne. We have taken our presence in the energy markets to a new level in a way that is consistent with our prudent approach to building businesses. This acquisition provides us with strategically located generation capacity in key markets that will position us to take advantage of improving market and regulatory dynamics.
"The general definition of a bear market is a 20% decline in the major indexes over a several month period.
The S&P 500 peaked at 1565.15 (closing) on October 9, 2007.
As of today, the S&P 500 is off 17.7%; not quite a Bear market.
And no bank failures today ... so here is a song for Friday afternoon."
What a difference a few days make. If the market were to open were futures are priced this evening the S&P would now meet the general definition of a bear market. - PDX
CNBC TV just went live here in the Midwest with their CNBC Asia feed, replacing usual canned programming. Interesting. (9:00 p.m. CDT) A first on a Sunday night.
Sometimes the system goes on the blink
And the whole thing turns out wrong
You might not make it back and you know
That you could be well oh that strong
And I'm not wrong...
It is interesting that Bear assumed Williams risk:
On November 9, 2007, we closed on the sale of substantially all of our power business to Bear Energy, LP, a unit of The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc., for $496 million, subject to post-closing adjustments. The assets sold included tolling contracts, full requirements contracts, tolling resales, heat rate options, related hedges and other related assets including certain property and software. This sale reduces the risk and complexity of our overall business model.
Who cares who's next. They're all going down. At the beginning of the end, we'll have one giant insolvent bank - The Legacy Bank Of the United Sates. Then, we'll have a war.
I kinda wonder if we will get news blackouts/ blocks and internet problems to control info flow....just a guess, but earlier I guessed that we will be trading our dollars in for walmart shopping cards.... I can be wrong
The volatility in the Dow futures is through the roof. It's dancing back and forth between 230ish down and 190ish down in the space of less than a minute.
ellie writes: "CNBC TV just went live here in the Midwest with their CNBC Asia feed, replacing usual canned programming. Interesting. (9:00 p.m. CDT) A first on a Sunday night."
-- Wow! But there's nothing to see here, no banks have failed, what are you hoping for, a train wreck? (OK.)
Rapidly Escalating Crisis reside in the securities financing repo market and the Credit default swap (CDS) marketplace. Leading the list of companies that saw the prices of their CDS (default protection) surge significantly this week were GMAC, Bear Stearns, Ford, Sallie Mae, Countrywide, and Lehman Brothers. These six companies combine for (as of their most recent financial statements) Total Assets of almost $2.0 TN, supported by Shareholders Equity of about $75bn. Or, stated differently, these six companies were leveraged (mostly in financial assets) to capital at a ratio in the neighborhood of 25 to 1. Moreover, derivative and other off-balance sheet guarantees and commitments would surely run in a multiple of hundreds of times the combined assets for these firms.
Wait, wait.....wait till the alt-a's start to go. There are plenty of signs they are crumbling already. Then the Option Arms in a few years. Those people are still paying their 1% "fake bullshit" rate. That's why they are still in the house.
We haven't even peaked with the subprime ARM's. That's only a few months away. What we've seen up to now in mortgage defaults is not even close to what will come.
Tell them Tanta. You know how much of this garbage is still out there.
sw, that's a good summation in the wsj on LEH, which is why I didn't think they would be next. The market has it doubts, however, if you look at the activity surrounding the shares.
Frankly I think the next one in the on-deck circle is a bank.
"Dopes. Stupid, Occidental Dopes. Look at them. Shuffling down the potholed-laden streets, emaciated. Maybe Sally Struthers will throw a bag of grain at them."
On February 14, 2008, The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. (the "Company") entered into The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. 2008 Trust Agreement (the "Trust Agreement"). Pursuant to the terms of the Trust Agreement and as contemplated by the amendments to The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. Capital Accumulation Plan for Senior Managing Directors and The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. Restricted Stock Unit Plan that were approved by the stockholders at the 2007 annual meeting of stockholders, the Company established a trust (the "Trust") for the purpose of holding shares of common stock of the Company, par value $1.00 (the "Shares"), underlying awards granted to selected employees and certain key executives under The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. Capital Accumulation Plan for Senior Managing Directors and The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. Restricted Stock Unit Plan. The Company has initially funded the Trust with 27,316,339 Shares. Pursuant to the Trust Agreement, Wilmington Trust Company, an independent trustee, will vote the Shares held in the Trust in accordance with the instructions received from the participants entitled to such awards and shall vote any Shares with respect to which proper instructions are not received in proportion to Shares for which proper instructions have been received.
Wilmington Trust does not own the 27.3MM shares. They are simply holding those shares for Bear senior management compensation. Check out the annual report if you don't believe me.
Remember LEH can now borrow from the discount window @ 3.25%.
Wouldn't it take a repricing event for a LEH or a C to go under? They can borrow at 3.25% (probably lower come Tuesday) using all their lovely AAA cough paper to back it up.
Joe Six Pack writes: "Inflation hits the Dollar store." They will have to rename it the 2 Dollar store. You will be able to buy BSC stock in the same aisle as Ben's Best BBQ Sauce.
Heres what I dont understand. If Wilmington owns those on their own books (not for a client or 10 clients) why did their stock only drop a $1.36 on Friday. I mean that would have been an $800 mil + loss and they have a market cap of 2 bil?
My wife just reminded me of two Beavis and Butthead episodes that seem to be good metaphors for what our financial geniuses have perpetrated:
The boys have boxes of $1 chocolate bars they are selling for a school fundraiser. Butthead sells one of his and gets $1. But he's hungry, so he buys a candy bar from Beavis and gives him the dollar. Then Beavis buys a bar from Butthead and so on until all the candy bars are gone.
The boys have $1. They go to a copying place and spend the dollar making $1 worth of copies of the dollar that they think they will be able to fob off on local merchants. The merchants decline to accept this fiat currency and they wind up penniless.
LEH has gone to great lenghts to stress $100 billion of liquidity (all in) though lines and facilities
10K
"At November 30, 2007, our liquidity pool was approximately $35 billion, up from approximately $31 billion at November 30, 2006 and down slightly from approximately $36 billion at the end of the third quarter of the 2007 fiscal year. Long-term capital (long-term borrowings, excluding borrowings with remaining contractual maturities within twelve months of the financial statement date, and total stockholders equity) was at approximately $146 billion at the end of 2007 fiscal year, up from approximately $100 billion at November 30, 2006 and $142 billion at the end of the third quarter of the 2007 fiscal year. Also during 2007, Holdings and LBIs credit ratings were upgraded by two credit rating agencies
Liquidity pool. We maintain a liquidity pool available to Holdings that covers expected cash outflows for twelve months in a stressed liquidity environment.
Ut oh!
Funding of assets. We fund assets based on their liquidity characteristics, and utilize cash capital1 to provide financing for our long-term funding needs.
If there's any validity to the law of averages, maybe our deciderer and his clique will f*ck up and get this one right - pull our chestnuts out of the fire with some world-class statesmanship.
This is where the true value of a Harvard MBA will be demonstrated.
Poor Fed! Everything they do seems to backfire. Would the futures be any worse if they had let BSC fail outright? Can they come up with another "emergency move" before the open, the second one in 12 hours? I bet BB ain't gonna get any sleep tonight!
Don't you think that the Fed is officially out of bullets? The 100bp cut is already baked in for this one. Everything else up to this point has worked for a day or 2. Now their moves are being viewed as panic.
lol...trying to be steady, but things are just popping. I'll repeat that I don't think LEH is the next one down, although I'm not sure of its long-term prognosis. I'm still sensing a bank...but you will only know about that after the fact and it won't be publicized like this as it happens.
Obviously, if the Dow tanked to 1000 tomorrow, we would all buy. Realistically though, at what point is it a true bargain and not still trying to catch a knife.
Markets over react on both sides (up and down). What is a good target entry point for the DOW?
doom, remember that if there was irrationality on the way up, there is irrationality on the way down. So what you are trying to do is sort that from the facts. Frankly, I think 11200 is the magic number for irrational. Just like I think that the rest of the resets, option arms etc are irrelevant as what you are seeing is the pricing in of where everyone thinks they will end up. Are those prices overly pessimistic? I am certain. How much? I'm not so certain there yet...
Doom, everything looks fraught with peril to me. U.S. stocks for obvious reasons. Cash and treasuries are guaranteed losers if inflation heats up. Foreign markets won't be safe for long. Feh.
"The contraction phase of credit and business cycles, driven by fear, have historically been far shorter and far more abrupt than the expansion phase, which is driven by a slow but cumulative build-up of euphoria."
His typical almost incoherent way of trying to call a bottom, for his own purposes. A-hole.
Geoff, I read that not as you did, but as saying "this is the part where you need to have your shoulder harness and seatbetls on becase after that long climb up, the descent is fast and you can get thrown from your chair. BSC didn't have it harness on. The descent is in process.
"In the current crisis, as in past crises, we can learn much, and policy in the future will be informed by these lessons. But we cannot hope to anticipate the specifics of future crises with any degree of confidence. Thus it is important, indeed crucial, that any reforms in, and adjustments to, the structure of markets and regulation not inhibit our most reliable and effective safeguards against cumulative economic failure: market flexibility and open competition."
Mr. Potter: [to George Bailey] Look at you. You used to be so cocky. You were going to go out and conquer the world. You once called me "a warped, frustrated, old man!" What are you but a warped, frustrated young man? A miserable little clerk crawling in here on your hands and knees and begging for help. No securities, no stocks, no bonds. Nothin' but a miserable little $500 equity in a life insurance policy.
[Potter chuckles]
Mr. Potter: You're worth more dead than alive!
If any of you have friends in the financial media, please ask them to actually report the "non-recourse" nature of the loan to JPM.
Practically speaking, is there any difference between a non-recourse loan and a grant? I mean, if they don't pay back the loan, what are they going to do, slash JPM's FICO score?
It's bad enough for the Fed to be making cheap loans in the name of liquidity, but this seems like an old-fashioned bailout with a fancy moniker. I hope the media notices - at $30 billion and a population of approx 300M, that's about $100 per man, woman and child. Your tax dollars at work!
Yes, ramen expands even at room temperature. I simply add the seasoning after transferring the ramen into my bowl. It's best to try Yakisoba through percolator as well; it's just ramen with Worcestershire sauce, mayo, a little bit of wasabi, some veggies, and soy sauce.
My company used to provide "Starbucks" brand coffee for our percolators, but times have changed. But there's nothing to complain about, because I know that a lot of people have it harder.
Thank you for asking.
WAMU is screwed. Besides whats out there I've heard rumblings (last fall) from people who know people that Wamu doesn't have a prayer and the guys at the FDIC or whoever is in charge of pulling the plug on insolvent banks have them on a very short leash. Basically its a when not if. But what do I know. Hell didn't mish post a snapshot of one of their AAA funds where 15% was REO in 9 months....
The fall of the Roman Empire
- Decline in Morals and Values
Not really. Classic morals and values were replaced by Christian morals and values. I don't think morals and values had much to do with the decline of the Roman Empire. In fact it didn't "decline"; it morphed into the Roman Catholic Church. The Pope replaced the Emperor, etc., etc.
So, am I a big stupid doo-doo brain for being strong in cash and treasuries or what?
Inflation is gonna kill my future, and everyone else's, so why not let a little deflation take place and right-size our ponzeconomy once and hopefully for all?
The ones left standing would be the ones who practiced prudence and diligence in the face of ridicule and scorn from the highest levels (Alan G.--I'm talking about you too, you magnificent bastard). They'd be a good group to call upon to jump start what will by them be a 3-5 trillion dollar economy and restart us on the road to manageable, reasonable prosperity.
Or we could go the way of the Weimar Republic--good times!
Jillayne - You really think that WAMU is regulated by the Home Loan Bank of Seattle? They are regulated by the OTS and FDIC. FHLBs aren't even regulators.
Tyrone & worried_in_ca,
I'm in the same boat. I don't have the treasury option in my plan. I warned my HR representative (email)about this but was brushed aside. I will sue them to the hilt if i loose money. The Supreme court said it was OK to do that, right?
re carlyle:
"... The Company will now move forward with the winding up and
liquidation application. During a compulsory winding up, all remaining
CCC assets will be liquidated by a court appointed liquidator in a
timely and orderly manner..."
I planted some turnips and onions today. But I'd do that anyhow. The cilantro is doing nicely, I still have citrus, and I harvested some plum tomatoes and a few banana peppers. I'm gonna go to Home Depot and buy some more plants.
Even if all the other banks are rosy, that won't stop people from speculating on their demise. The question alone of "who is next" means there will be a next. And then who's after that? No one is safe.
I live in Maine. We still have a foot of snow in the yard. I'm going to start peppers and tomatoes inside in a couple weeks. Won't be able to plant them outside until mid-May.
I have been following CR for a couple of years.We had a record count of visitors today,and a record number of comments (320 plus on one thread!).Early August was close with the BSC hedge fund collapse.Thank you all for your comments,following these historic events in real time is fascinating.
For BSC, the Fed went throught JPM. Who would be the front for Lehman?
The NYSE ought to open tomorrow with the flight of the Valkyries
Some Wagner ought to lighten the mood
Walker - Maybe Goldman or CS? I don't think any of the other banks are in any position to buy lunch, let alone a bank.
Another major leaguer getting canned? Unbelievable, and gold is now up 27 pesos.
I think the sound track from Jaws would be better!
Walker - Raises Hand pick me! pick me!
If the Fed will loan me $30 billion, I'll buy Lehman for $4.50 and a bag of chips.
I understand there might be a systemic risk event. Is this slowing it, preventing it, or just concentrating it? Who consolidates next? Can the FED buy all of the failed financial institutions?
That's a non-recourse loan... don't forget !
Read London Telegraph Ambrose Evans Pritchard Column today. CR, I apologize for pimping Pritchards work but it is always valuable to see yourself as others see you. Ambrose is declaring the beginning of the end for the dollar as reserve currency. Inflation arrives with a vengence until the crash.
I think the Fed has now lost the confidence of the remaining few that still believed that they could fix this mess. And just think, while we just entered recession, the job losses, massive layoffs, and other business/bank failures are yet to come.
The panic button has now been pushed.
Fuld better come back....LEH is about to get teed up.
Hey,
Can you wait just a second on LEH, I just need a few seconds to find some connections between Bear subs and hedges:
Bear Stearns also conducts business through other wholly owned subsidiaries, including Bear Stearns Global Lending Limited, Custodial Trust Company, Bear Stearns International Limited, Bear Stearns Bank, Bear Stearns Financial Products Inc., Bear Stearns Capital Markets Inc., EMC Mortgage Corporation, Bear Stearns Mortgage Capital Corporation, Bear Wagner, Bear Stearns Credit Products Inc., Bear Energy LP, Bear Stearns Forex Inc., Bear Stearns Asset Management Inc and Rooftop Mortgages. Bear Stearns also holds an 80% interest in Bear Measurisk.
Interesting Times writes:
That's a non-recourse loan... don't forget !
So do the math: Take 30B and divide by the number of US residents and you will know what your 2009 tax penalty premium.
(At lease for BSC, anyways)
Thank God this did not happen pre-bonus time as some would be really miffed, huh.
don't forget Wamu! I thought JPM was supposed to save them when the time came but Bear got there first.
LEH can take their new $2 bil line of credit and do an LBO.
Will today be the day that we look back on and say, "yep, that was it, it was maybe till then. That was the official start to the collapse".
Well now that people--including the WSJ of all things--are openly bandying about the possibility of LEH failing, I think it's a foregone conclusion.
They had just as much exposure to toxic paper as BSC did, and when Mr. Margin starts calling on in a few hours, they won't be there to meet him.
Market conditions are such that prophecies become self-fulfilling in this environment.
Just think of all the people who owned BSC on the Margin and will get a margin call tomorrow! What will they sell to cover it?
Ok, these are my guys:
Bear Stearns Bank plc....................................... Ireland
Bear Stearns Global Lending Limited......................... Cayman Islands
apologies if this was already posted, but I didn't remember it from the conference call thread...
U.S. Fed Cuts Discount Rate, Says Dealers May Borrow
don't forget Wamu! I thought JPM was supposed to save them when the time came but Bear got there first.
WAMU won't go down until the option ARMs hit. That is where their real liability is.
Barley
"So do the math: Take 30B and divide by the number of US residents and you will know what your 2009 tax penalty premium. "
That hurts.
piter
LEH's ceo will set you straight "that's ridiculous, totally ridiculous"
The fall of the Roman Empire
- Decline in Morals and Values
- Public Health
- Political Corruption
- Inflation
- Unemployment
- Military Spending
???? Fall of the United States ????
NOTE: I would not test the FDIC limit at any bank right now. I would keep at most $75,000 at any 1 bank.
NOTE: I would not test the SPIC limit at any brokerage right now. I would keep at most $400,000 at one brokerage firm.
Full disclosure - I am a Canadian who was long on US banks. Bought oil and gold last august....
Counterparty: Knock-knock
LEH: Who's there?
Counterparty: Margin
Counterparty: Knock-knock
LEH: Who's there?
Counterparty: Margin
Counterparty: Knock-knock
LEH: Who's there?
Counterparty: Orange
LEH: Orange who?
Counterparty: Orange you going to deliver my margin?
dd
remember subprime is contained- only the entire financial system is at risk
Nikkei off 437
Interesting Times writes:
Full disclosure - I am a Canadian who was long on US banks. Bought oil and gold last august
It is still not to late to short BMO!
Shorted C - put @10.75. Been walking this on for 6 months. Rather fun.
Live currency quotes (warning - you might want to be sitting down if you're long dollars or short yen)
<a href="http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-rates/>here
lawyerliz writes:
Nikkei off 437
And the Y=97
We all favour a strong dollar. Yup.
can anyone substantiate the danger at lehman with some numbers (lets compare with that of BSC)
the return of their ceo sounds ominous enough though
The Dow futures aren't even down 2%. It doesn't seem like all that much of a big deal yet.
"Market conditions are such that prophecies become self-fulfilling in this environment."
I can hear Sebastian now, "The economy was doing just fine until everyone started demanding their money back."
Sorry Seb, couldn't resist the good-naturedly dig. Although I vigorously defend your right to express your views, I think you missed the boat on this one - Wright B turns out to be Wrong B.
Rats, I covered my shorts on LEH last week.
Barley - CM will take the hit too...
I feel so unpatriotic when I short banks...
Nikkei off 437
The East is Red.
(sorry, SPI reference)
A "crash" would require a drop of somewhere like 10%. We are a LONG way from that.
Has anyone else coined "St. Patrick's Day Massacre" yet? If not, allow me....
A "crash" would require a drop of somewhere like 10%. We are a LONG way from that.
Good. Then I have a little time to get the hell out of US $$s.
Troy writes:
Nikkei off 437
Nothing here move along - we need to see India and China drop by 2-3% to take some froth out then the real fun begins
2% tomorrow, 2% Tuesday, 2% Wednesday....
OK, so it's a SLOW crash.... like a car crash, in the ocean...
isn't that what Tanta was saying this morning?
can anyone substantiate the danger at lehman with some numbers (lets compare with that of BSC)
I'm working on some analysis now. I imagine conjure is ferociously blasting through excel too. Frankly, I didn't think the next down was LEH. But I can tell you that if you look at the put activity and compare what happened to Bear in the weeks before, you'll have an idea of where the bets are.
We are a LONG way from that
would you prefer the term "trainwreck" then? More momentum means more crash-boom-bang action before things come to a stop.
Oooops Anonymous | 03.16.08 - 10:02 pm was me.
Remember LEH can now borrow from the discount window @ 3.25%. Depends how much junk they have, but if they might be more liquid than Bear.
Tip #1a:
The Company invests in certain distressed debt instruments of which the issuers are VIEs. The Company has
determined that it is the primary beneficiary of such VIEs.
The Company has made investments in entities that own power plants. Certain entities are VIEs of which the
Company is the primary beneficiary.
To bolster its position in energy, Bear recently
announced an agreement to acquire a portfolio of
power and gas contracts, as well as other assets,
from The Williams Companies, Inc. DBRS views
this transaction favorably, because it gives Bear
Stearns a geographically diverse generation
portfolio that complements the Companys
growing energy-trading activities. The physical
power plant tolling agreements and power
contracts as well as information systems will add
substantially to the Companys existing equity
ownership in various power-related assets and
enhance Bear Energys growing capabilities
The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. (NYSE:BSC) today announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire substantially all of the power and natural gas assets comprising the power trading business of Williams Power Company, Inc., an energy trading and marketing subsidiary of The Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE:WMB). Bear Energy LP, a Houston-based, wholly owned subsidiary of Bear Stearns, will assume the portfolio of assets, which includes approximately 7700 megawatts of gas-fired tolling capacity, 1800 megawatts of full requirements power supply contracts, and an associated trading book. Bear Energy will also acquire various information systems and seek to hire Williams Power Company employees.
The transaction, which is subject to regulatory and other approvals, is expected to close during Bear Stearns fiscal fourth quarter ending November 30, 2007, and is expected to be accretive to earnings and earnings per share in fiscal 2008.
This transaction marks a substantial leap forward for our energy business, commented Bear Stearns chairman and chief executive officer James E. Cayne. We have taken our presence in the energy markets to a new level in a way that is consistent with our prudent approach to building businesses. This acquisition provides us with strategically located generation capacity in key markets that will position us to take advantage of improving market and regulatory dynamics.
Ok?
CR on Friday:
"The general definition of a bear market is a 20% decline in the major indexes over a several month period.
The S&P 500 peaked at 1565.15 (closing) on October 9, 2007.
As of today, the S&P 500 is off 17.7%; not quite a Bear market.
And no bank failures today ... so here is a song for Friday afternoon."
What a difference a few days make. If the market were to open were futures are priced this evening the S&P would now meet the general definition of a bear market. - PDX
666 visitors on line - not a good sig
Nikkei down 500+
Somebody leave now - 666 visitors on line. please.
@ Anonymous | 03.16.08 - 10:02 pm |
Thanks. Could you pls share some intial numbers ? (or point to an XL link)
CNBC TV just went live here in the Midwest with their CNBC Asia feed, replacing usual canned programming. Interesting. (9:00 p.m. CDT) A first on a Sunday night.
With so much time before the opening bell tomorrow, many traders don't want to commit to a position tonight. Anything can happen. You know how Ben is.
But as we get closer to the bell, the futures will take a decisive stance.
I will wake up early, get my coffee, sit back and enjoy the fireworks.
Sometimes the system goes on the blink
And the whole thing turns out wrong
You might not make it back and you know
That you could be well oh that strong
And I'm not wrong...
Cause you had a bad day
It is interesting that Bear assumed Williams risk:
On November 9, 2007, we closed on the sale of substantially all of our power business to Bear Energy, LP, a unit of The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc., for $496 million, subject to post-closing adjustments. The assets sold included tolling contracts, full requirements contracts, tolling resales, heat rate options, related hedges and other related assets including certain property and software. This sale reduces the risk and complexity of our overall business model.
hang seng down 900 points - TIMBERRRRRRR
Here is the list of BSC holders from yahoo:
BSC: Major Holders for ELEMENTS BG SM CP ET - Yahoo! Finance
I don't see Wilmington Trust anywhere on it...
I can't believe I just heard somebody say: "the problems are only in housing and financials. The real economy is still doing quite nicely."
Who cares who's next. They're all going down. At the beginning of the end, we'll have one giant insolvent bank - The Legacy Bank Of the United Sates. Then, we'll have a war.
I scrimped and saved, and now I have enough dollars to wallpaper my bedroom. Thank you your eminence Ben (Inflation) Bernanke.
Questions to think about in order to answer the blog's question:
a) Does LEH's access to the Fed window with all these types of assets imply complete confidence by counterparties?
b) Does the Fed window imply the Fed can muscle LEH into sale?
Nikkei just crossed the Dow futures and is still truckin'. Lunch in Tokyo is going to be... interesting.
I can't believe that O-Joe went to sleep early tonight. It's only a little passed 10pm on a Sunday. And there's still over 600 people at the party.
Party on!!!!!!!!
Hong Kong (-1095) just passed Gold (1025)on the downside.
I kinda wonder if we will get news blackouts/ blocks and internet problems to control info flow....just a guess, but earlier I guessed that we will be trading our dollars in for walmart shopping cards.... I can be wrong
Nikkei now down over 500
The volatility in the Dow futures is through the roof. It's dancing back and forth between 230ish down and 190ish down in the space of less than a minute.
crispy&cole writes:
Somebody leave now - 666 visitors on line. please.
LOL,
Very good crispy&cole.
Can someone post a link that shows Wilmington owning 27,000,000 BSC?
Thanks
"the problems are only in housing and financials. The real economy is still doing quite nicely."
Now we need somebody to come on and tell us we are in the 9th inning of the credit crisis
Party on!!!!!!!!
Even though I'm hedged a little in SDS, I'm not much in a "partying" mood.
More like this youtube link.
ellie writes: "CNBC TV just went live here in the Midwest with their CNBC Asia feed, replacing usual canned programming. Interesting. (9:00 p.m. CDT) A first on a Sunday night."
-- Wow! But there's nothing to see here, no banks have failed, what are you hoping for, a train wreck? (OK.)
The "real" economy? WTF!
Would that be the same damn economy fueled by MEW??????
Beemer writes:
"the problems are only in housing and financials. The real economy is still doing quite nicely."
Other than that, Ms. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?
Here is a link to see if your savings are covered by the FDIC. Just go to the calculator on the bottom.
http://www4.fdic.gov/EDIE/
Rapidly Escalating Crisis reside in the securities financing repo market and the Credit default swap (CDS) marketplace. Leading the list of companies that saw the prices of their CDS (default protection) surge significantly this week were GMAC, Bear Stearns, Ford, Sallie Mae, Countrywide, and Lehman Brothers. These six companies combine for (as of their most recent financial statements) Total Assets of almost $2.0 TN, supported by Shareholders Equity of about $75bn. Or, stated differently, these six companies were leveraged (mostly in financial assets) to capital at a ratio in the neighborhood of 25 to 1. Moreover, derivative and other off-balance sheet guarantees and commitments would surely run in a multiple of hundreds of times the combined assets for these firms.
404 - Error: 404
Batter up!
wsj has an article that seems to indicate lehman is in a much better position to battle the liquidity squeeze than most
Liquidity Squeeze Reveals Vulnerability - WSJ.com
Wait, wait.....wait till the alt-a's start to go. There are plenty of signs they are crumbling already. Then the Option Arms in a few years. Those people are still paying their 1% "fake bullshit" rate. That's why they are still in the house.
We haven't even peaked with the subprime ARM's. That's only a few months away. What we've seen up to now in mortgage defaults is not even close to what will come.
Tell them Tanta. You know how much of this garbage is still out there.
One word - commodities!
Illinois-Shaped Corn Flake for Sale
Oh, baby! Coming Up on CNBC: OPPORTUNITY CALLS
Right.
Who was CNBC Asia just talking about that was ripping the crap out of Bernanke and the Fed?
Beemer: an economics professor from the University of Maryland...didn't catch his name.
beemer - I saw that, they said this was 1929.
Fed officials said that despite the dire situation the markets face,
"Tomorrow morning, we get to print a tombstone in the WSJ for the deal financing we've provided, which we think is pretty cool!"
Where is Jas Jain? He must be hold up in his bunker.
Hang Seng down 4.8%
Jas? He's sittin in a corner with Conjure, snickering.
anon:
Wilmington Trust Corp, et al. · SC 13G · Bear Stearns Companies Inc · On 2/22/08
Filed On 2/22/08 5:08pm ET · SEC File 5-36788 · Accession Number 893220-8-507
GGREGATE AMOUNT BENEFICIALLY OWNED BY EACH REPORTING PERSON
\t
\t27,336,926
SEC Info - Wilmington Trust Corp, et al. - SC 13G - Bear Stearns Companies Inc - On 2/22/08
also other holders:
BSC: Major Holders for ELEMENTS BG SM CP ET - Yahoo! Finance
We were fried the day the Bush/Cheney administration was inaugurated.
We were fried the day Volcker resigned and Greenspan assumed the role of head central planner.
Take your pick
sw, that's a good summation in the wsj on LEH, which is why I didn't think they would be next. The market has it doubts, however, if you look at the activity surrounding the shares.
Frankly I think the next one in the on-deck circle is a bank.
The good news is that I'm all in treasuries.
The bad news is that I'm all in treasuries.
"Inflation hits the Dollar store."
They will have to rename it the 2 Dollar store.
You will be able to buy BSC stock in the same aisle as Ben's Best BBQ Sauce.
Here, I'll do my Jas impersonation:
"Dopes. Stupid, Occidental Dopes. Look at them. Shuffling down the potholed-laden streets, emaciated. Maybe Sally Struthers will throw a bag of grain at them."
"Dopes."
Moody's affirms JPM ratings
"Take your pick"
August 15th 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window paying for another useless war like the one we are now fighting.
Blowncue - It's not Jas without a Crooks in there somewhere.
blowncue, that was right on. LMAO
Thanks. I was digging what little I heard the prof saying.
Hey - Maybe S&P will come out on Monday aft and say they see the end of the subprime crisis & the markets will close up
FYI )off topic for LEH):
On February 14, 2008, The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. (the "Company") entered into The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. 2008 Trust Agreement (the "Trust Agreement"). Pursuant to the terms of the Trust Agreement and as contemplated by the amendments to The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. Capital Accumulation Plan for Senior Managing Directors and The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. Restricted Stock Unit Plan that were approved by the stockholders at the 2007 annual meeting of stockholders, the Company established a trust (the "Trust") for the purpose of holding shares of common stock of the Company, par value $1.00 (the "Shares"), underlying awards granted to selected employees and certain key executives under The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. Capital Accumulation Plan for Senior Managing Directors and The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. Restricted Stock Unit Plan. The Company has initially funded the Trust with 27,316,339 Shares. Pursuant to the Trust Agreement, Wilmington Trust Company, an independent trustee, will vote the Shares held in the Trust in accordance with the instructions received from the participants entitled to such awards and shall vote any Shares with respect to which proper instructions are not received in proportion to Shares for which proper instructions have been received.
easy come, easy go?
BTW... the Illinois-shaped cornflake is now carrying a bid of $32. You can buy 16 shares of Bear Stearns with that.
"If Bear is worth $2 what is everyone else worth":
Nobody makes money in a true bear market, not even the bears Todd Harrison - MarketWatch
Wilmington Trust does not own the 27.3MM shares. They are simply holding those shares for Bear senior management compensation. Check out the annual report if you don't believe me.
Wilmington has no exposure.
Remember LEH can now borrow from the discount window @ 3.25%.
Wouldn't it take a repricing event for a LEH or a C to go under? They can borrow at 3.25% (probably lower come Tuesday) using all their lovely AAA cough paper to back it up.
The good news is that I'm all in treasuries.
The bad news is that I'm all in treasuries.
To be rich you need 2 things, money, and money that is worth something.
Lehman hauled out the tin cup and went around to the banks last week. It only took 40 marks to get 2 billion. I think they're safe for this week.
Nobody was going to help Bear.
total dollar collapse happenin now - yen 96.15, eur 158.70, chf < 97!!! gold 1028
"If Bear is worth $2 what is everyone else worth"
Less, Bear got out the exit first.
Joe Six Pack writes: "Inflation hits the Dollar store." They will have to rename it the 2 Dollar store. You will be able to buy BSC stock in the same aisle as Ben's Best BBQ Sauce.
-- Ahhhh! (Spews chablis all over keyboard.)
Thanks Scotty...
Heres what I dont understand. If Wilmington owns those on their own books (not for a client or 10 clients) why did their stock only drop a $1.36 on Friday. I mean that would have been an $800 mil + loss and they have a market cap of 2 bil?
Well most of my shorts should continue to pay off. When will this SRS start to skyrocket?
below 96
My wife just reminded me of two Beavis and Butthead episodes that seem to be good metaphors for what our financial geniuses have perpetrated:
You gotta be patient with SRS.
CNBC: What was that about a "credit rating downgrade for the United States" -- by the Chinese? Didn't catch it.
Neg Am...You are undoubtedly correct
Chablis? Tonight, it's Cab all the way. You need strong stuff to watch this kind of news.
Yep, I watched the dollar fall below 96 with my very own eyeballs. Ugh.
Hang seng now down 7.5% - 1,096
Joe Six Pack writes:
"Inflation hits the Dollar store."
They will have to rename it the 2 Dollar store.
Or the "Euro Store"
MOM, that's right. They closed on a 2B unsecured line last week.
Hang seng now down 7.5% - 1,096
No worries, not a crash yet, needs to be 10%.
BEWARE: the yen carry trade. More assets (even more than normal under the circumstances)are going to be sold off. It's gonna get ugly.
beemer et al: It was Peter Morici from U.Md.
I thought chablis sounded better than gin-and-tonic (not a lot of tonic).
Carry trades are unwinding. Australian dollar dropped a penny at the same time as the yen went up.
Has Tokyo stopped trading??
anybody buying skf at the open?
isn't it lunchtime in Tokyo?
Beavis & Butthead invest their $1 in a retirement account at Merrill Lynch, Lehman, BCS, GS, etc, (take your pick).
They still end up penniless except without the memory of eating a good chocolate bar.
The New World Disorder.
Can't get an update. Index shows 11:00 @ -514.61. Has reporting been suspended??
That is all - Bob
How about a dollar crash and a market crash on the same day.
I'm sure the PPT fellas were in the conference room right next door to the BSC/JPM paper-rock-scissors negotiations.
Dow futures over the last 10 minutes have made another big move down. (259) now.
asian guy on bloomberg earlier said we test 95 on yen before 100; i didn't think he'd think it'd happen TONIGHT!!!
Does Tokyo close for a lunch break?
"Bernie, you've been doing a heckuva job".
Boat52: yes.
Nikkei market takes an afternoon break. So it will stay fixed at -514 until trading resumes in an hour or so after lunch.
Bob H writes:
Can't get an update. Index shows 11:00 @ -514.61. Has reporting been suspended??
They break for lunch.
Mr. Beach...Boat 52 says thanks
Lunch cancelled due to loss of appetite for dollars
Hang Seng H is down 7%
Hang Seng is down 4.9%
anybody else drinking tonight?
Thanks for the clarification. Obviously I'm a new Nikkei cliff diving spectator.
There's gonna be a lot of puked "raw fish" on the streets of Japan this lunch time.
Sniglet writes:
A "crash" would require a drop of somewhere like 10%. We are a LONG way from that.
I think the Japanese are close to 5% right now. Do they count?
anybody else drinking tonight?
non anon, if you want to fly the plan after you blew an engine, you need a very steady hand.
LEH has gone to great lenghts to stress $100 billion of liquidity (all in) though lines and facilities
10K
"At November 30, 2007, our liquidity pool was approximately $35 billion, up from approximately $31 billion at November 30, 2006 and down slightly from approximately $36 billion at the end of the third quarter of the 2007 fiscal year. Long-term capital (long-term borrowings, excluding borrowings with remaining contractual maturities within twelve months of the financial statement date, and total stockholders equity) was at approximately $146 billion at the end of 2007 fiscal year, up from approximately $100 billion at November 30, 2006 and $142 billion at the end of the third quarter of the 2007 fiscal year. Also during 2007, Holdings and LBIs credit ratings were upgraded by two credit rating agencies
Liquidity pool. We maintain a liquidity pool available to Holdings that covers expected cash outflows for twelve months in a stressed liquidity environment.
Ut oh!
Funding of assets. We fund assets based on their liquidity characteristics, and utilize cash capital1 to provide financing for our long-term funding needs.
Bob H writes: "Thanks for the clarification. Obviously I'm a new Nikkei cliff diving spectator."
-- We all be here watching for the meltdown thingie.
Plane, fly the plane. Lord, all this excitement and my typing is worse than usual!
Bank of Indonesia started selling dollars!!
The PPT? You mean Bush's Brain Trust?
If there's any validity to the law of averages, maybe our deciderer and his clique will f*ck up and get this one right - pull our chestnuts out of the fire with some world-class statesmanship.
This is where the true value of a Harvard MBA will be demonstrated.
Bush: "It's a soft patch"
Damn it man... I'd hate to see a hard patch...
oh yeah total assetsb $700 billion approx. 40 billion res mortghage and 40B cmbs
Lehman next?
Why waste a 1% rate cut.....throw a couple of more onto the pile.
Only so many more cuts available
Wonder what will happen in Bombay. I remember when they went all oogly moogly a few months ago and stopped trading. Should I stay up?
ipodius, Good Luck flewing that plan!
Oops, you self-corrected. Sorry, although I might give flewing a try.
Poor Fed! Everything they do seems to backfire. Would the futures be any worse if they had let BSC fail outright? Can they come up with another "emergency move" before the open, the second one in 12 hours? I bet BB ain't gonna get any sleep tonight!
mal - CNBC india link:
404 Not Found
My solution to park all the CDO and other crap to virtual world secondlife.com sounds now even more and more sensible
Give banksters a SECOND CHANCE!
Sebastian?
O-Joe?
Guys?
Guys?
This is not good.
Don't you think that the Fed is officially out of bullets? The 100bp cut is already baked in for this one. Everything else up to this point has worked for a day or 2. Now their moves are being viewed as panic.
any more info on the indonesia fire sale of dollars ?
Whocoodanode?
Helicopters will no longer cut it. This time we need high-capacity bombers!
ipodius, Good Luck flewing that plan!
lol...trying to be steady, but things are just popping. I'll repeat that I don't think LEH is the next one down, although I'm not sure of its long-term prognosis. I'm still sensing a bank...but you will only know about that after the fact and it won't be publicized like this as it happens.
Obviously, if the Dow tanked to 1000 tomorrow, we would all buy. Realistically though, at what point is it a true bargain and not still trying to catch a knife.
Markets over react on both sides (up and down). What is a good target entry point for the DOW?
Any ideas?
dr.dan writes: "any more info on the indonesia fire sale of dollars?"
-- "Propping up the rupee" I think the crawl said.
Dollar crash, gold over $1k, world markets tanking, Bear Stearns sold for pennies, Fed totally out of control. This all can mean only one thing.
Market rally on Monday.
What is a good target entry point for the DOW?
10,000
Any ideas?
doom
9200 to 9600
Dow entry point? 2 of course.
The dollar is taking a real pounding. At this rate, the euro could be $1.60 by tomorrow night.
Dow 9750 is what I am seeing from Elliot Wave types (for what that is worth).
For me it's Dow 3600.
Signed,
Bizarro Harry Dent
doom- denniger had a signal based on the 20 week and 50 week moving averages.
The Market Ticker
At this rate, the euro could be $1.60 by tomorrow night.
I think New York City in six months will be going by its former name of Nieeuw Amsterdam.
doom, remember that if there was irrationality on the way up, there is irrationality on the way down. So what you are trying to do is sort that from the facts. Frankly, I think 11200 is the magic number for irrational. Just like I think that the rest of the resets, option arms etc are irrelevant as what you are seeing is the pricing in of where everyone thinks they will end up. Are those prices overly pessimistic? I am certain. How much? I'm not so certain there yet...
Doom, everything looks fraught with peril to me. U.S. stocks for obvious reasons. Cash and treasuries are guaranteed losers if inflation heats up. Foreign markets won't be safe for long. Feh.
How many hours b4 Europe opens? My have to stay up and watch that.
doom- "Obviously, if the Dow tanked to 1000 tomorrow, we would all buy."
Sorry, if that happened, Conjure and I definitely would not be buying.
Why did the Fed announce all this other stuff tonight? Why didn't they wait until morning? Seems stupid.
Emma Anne
how about a big oy vey
Indonesia has depleted their USD reserves after spending all $113 to prevent a further slide. (jk)
Sorry, if that happened, Conjure and I definitely would not be buying.
Yes you guys would. You'd be right behind me in the ammo line at wal-mart with your cart already filled with toilet paper
blowncue,
LMAO I have four of those in plexiglass (or whatever the hell you really call it) on top of a book cabinet - that is funny!
(NB: big fan of gallows humor)
Doom, keep an eye on the real economy. It's all about the "E". Make sure they're there before committing to a "P".
Fed, just cut to 0% Monday and order sushi.
Europe opens in 5 hours and some minutes...IF it opens
mal
they couldnt eait till morning. the markets would have gone into a freefall. It had to be settled today
mal writes:
Why did the Fed announce all this other stuff tonight? Why didn't they wait until morning? Seems stupid.
Shows they are ahead of the curve on this one.
I think that WL is just the trustee for Bear Stern's exec comp plan, so no actual exposure.
Wamu is next
Wamu is next
FLL Renter, I'm inclined to agree with you.
Mene, Mene, Tekel, Parsin
Rembrandt | Belshazzar's Feast | NG6350 | The National Gallery, London
I am buying puts on Morgan Stanley monday am
"Helicopters will no longer cut it. This time we need high-capacity bombers!"
Too late! We already retired the B-52s. All we have left are the smart bombs the Feds have been using.
Pretty scary now... I wish everyone the best...
Wamu next? Maybe, maybe not. But they WILL fall. Their portfolio has a crapload of option arms. They are done, it's only a matter of time.
Beemer yup - less the sentiment puts it 9200ish
doom, I also think that C will not survive this in its present form.
Cooking ramen in my percolator writes:
Pretty scary now... I wish everyone the best...
ok while we burn a bit of oil into midnight, I have a question is your name possbile?
Never tried it.
Has anyone seen Don McLean lately?
Greenspin tries yet again to save his arse.
"The contraction phase of credit and business cycles, driven by fear, have historically been far shorter and far more abrupt than the expansion phase, which is driven by a slow but cumulative build-up of euphoria."
His typical almost incoherent way of trying to call a bottom, for his own purposes. A-hole.
Link to Greenspin shlock :
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - We will never have a perfect model of risk
Thanks for the opinions on the Dow. Trying to get investor sentiment. I was thinking along the lines of 10,000 to 10,500.
crispy & cole may come the closest with a guess of 2.
Geoff, I read that not as you did, but as saying "this is the part where you need to have your shoulder harness and seatbetls on becase after that long climb up, the descent is fast and you can get thrown from your chair. BSC didn't have it harness on. The descent is in process.
okay there goes China SE A - now there is momentum selling
Asia will be off 6%.
ipodius writes:
Wamu is next
FLL Renter, I'm inclined to agree with you.
-- Whew! Glad to hear it won't be the stagecoach (WFC).
he dollar is taking a real pounding. At this rate, the euro could be $1.60 by tomorrow night.
I bought DBE for its dollar hedging as much as its PO/Ghawar hedging. Saudis might still take USD but they want to spend Euros.
I am thinking MS or WAMU. Take your pick.
Senility and denial, courtesy of Greenspin :
"In the current crisis, as in past crises, we can learn much, and policy in the future will be informed by these lessons. But we cannot hope to anticipate the specifics of future crises with any degree of confidence. Thus it is important, indeed crucial, that any reforms in, and adjustments to, the structure of markets and regulation not inhibit our most reliable and effective safeguards against cumulative economic failure: market flexibility and open competition."
WFC has a good Veribanc rating.
I called Dow 10,000 last year and was ridiculed. Now everyone says, "Oh, yeah. I can see that."
Therefore, I suspect it will go lower.
ipodious - you are far too generous to the old fart. He is clearly in ass-saving mode.
Dow closed at 11951 and futures now at 11715 more or less.
Dow entry? I'd say 7000-8000. It's gonna be lower than people think. We've got a couple years of instability
guys, lets not get confused ... lets go one per week pls
monday 17 : LEH
next : WAMU
next : C (this is big)
next : ML and MS
next : BoA and JPM (the aholes, who bought bad companies)
Mr. Potter: [to George Bailey] Look at you. You used to be so cocky. You were going to go out and conquer the world. You once called me "a warped, frustrated, old man!" What are you but a warped, frustrated young man? A miserable little clerk crawling in here on your hands and knees and begging for help. No securities, no stocks, no bonds. Nothin' but a miserable little $500 equity in a life insurance policy.
[Potter chuckles]
Mr. Potter: You're worth more dead than alive!
China now -2. rather exciting.
If any of you have friends in the financial media, please ask them to actually report the "non-recourse" nature of the loan to JPM.
Practically speaking, is there any difference between a non-recourse loan and a grant? I mean, if they don't pay back the loan, what are they going to do, slash JPM's FICO score?
It's bad enough for the Fed to be making cheap loans in the name of liquidity, but this seems like an old-fashioned bailout with a fancy moniker. I hope the media notices - at $30 billion and a population of approx 300M, that's about $100 per man, woman and child. Your tax dollars at work!
WFC has a good Veribanc rating.
Yes, there are other weak banks. Look for similar profiles to BSC and watch who is pulling back from whom.
It is contained at $2. Wake me when there is a calamity.
the posting is fast and furious, can't even respond without being 5 posts down!
By similar profiles I mean risk, paper, and credit lines.
Barley,
Yes, ramen expands even at room temperature. I simply add the seasoning after transferring the ramen into my bowl. It's best to try Yakisoba through percolator as well; it's just ramen with Worcestershire sauce, mayo, a little bit of wasabi, some veggies, and soy sauce.
My company used to provide "Starbucks" brand coffee for our percolators, but times have changed. But there's nothing to complain about, because I know that a lot of people have it harder.
Thank you for asking.
USD below 96, now 95 handle
Don't the the big Investment Bankers report numbers this week. They better surprise to the upside. LOL.
It could get ugly (uglier).
WAMU is screwed. Besides whats out there I've heard rumblings (last fall) from people who know people that Wamu doesn't have a prayer and the guys at the FDIC or whoever is in charge of pulling the plug on insolvent banks have them on a very short leash. Basically its a when not if. But what do I know. Hell didn't mish post a snapshot of one of their AAA funds where 15% was REO in 9 months....
with all this, can anyone explain the terrible performance of REIT ultra-short etf, SRS ?
Doom - you're starting to sound like Paulson with the double the.
My Kids were eyeing the cardboard I was taking to the recyclers. I think they're worried that I was getting rid of our new room additions.
Speaker73 $100 per man woman and child...
Don't worry... that $100 won't be buying much very soon anyways...
PC17- all the banks are on a short leash since there isn't enough dough to go around.
this will be like people not paying their mortgage for 3 months and not even getting a collection call- not enough resources to go around.
it's ostrich time
The fall of the Roman Empire
- Decline in Morals and Values
Not really. Classic morals and values were replaced by Christian morals and values. I don't think morals and values had much to do with the decline of the Roman Empire. In fact it didn't "decline"; it morphed into the Roman Catholic Church. The Pope replaced the Emperor, etc., etc.
My 401k is invested in Fidelity cash reserves. How safe are these? Would someone please let me know how I can move it to treasuries.
Thanks
PC17,
WAMU is regulated by the Federal Home Loan Bank here in Seattle.
worried,
you can move it to FDLXX. It's with fidelity. That's their ALL treasury fund. The yield is lower at about 2.07%.
Greg writes:
The NYSE ought to open tomorrow with the flight of the Valkyries
Some Wagner ought to lighten the mood
Greg | 03.16.08 - 9:37 pm | #
I think Gotterdammerung should be the opera. The twilight of the Gods and the fall of Valhalla.
Just reported that the Carlyle Group shareholders have voted to liquidate the company!!!!! CNBC Asia.
So, am I a big stupid doo-doo brain for being strong in cash and treasuries or what?
Inflation is gonna kill my future, and everyone else's, so why not let a little deflation take place and right-size our ponzeconomy once and hopefully for all?
The ones left standing would be the ones who practiced prudence and diligence in the face of ridicule and scorn from the highest levels (Alan G.--I'm talking about you too, you magnificent bastard). They'd be a good group to call upon to jump start what will by them be a 3-5 trillion dollar economy and restart us on the road to manageable, reasonable prosperity.
Or we could go the way of the Weimar Republic--good times!
Heli Ben needs to bring in the B52 to crush the dollar.
I hate doublespeak so just for those who want to know:
non-recourse loan = bail out = free money out of thin air.
There.
That would be Carlyle Capital.
Greg-
The Carlyle subfund in Europe that was in trouble, or ALL of Carlyle out of Wash DC??!!
Some SWF put 3.2 billion into Bear some time back, right? Anybody recall which SWF? Burned I suspect.
Not sure if Carlyle Europe or USA. Just reported as breaking news.
hi.
Sovereign Wealth Funds... yeah that'll teach you to try to buy us on the cheap. Take that cut from the falling knife.
doom- they already own us
Dollar up to 96.5 yen. Whew.
That'll teach us to be pessimistic
oh, shit. That's right.
Well now they're really gonna suffer.
Eat chicken-Beat Inflation!
Eat Chicken to Beat Inflation, Thai Premier Says: Chart of Day - Bloomberg.com
Am I banished?
wsj article again about major stake holders for BSC
A Stake Through the Heart - WSJ.com
Joeseph Lewis 9.6%
On CNBC they are speculating about who is the next to go under-Lehman or Goldman etc.
It is Carlyle Capital to file for liquidation in Guernsey?? Sounds like the European entity.
Margin will be calling in the morning!!
Jim | 03.16.08 - 11:12 pm
Trust me on this: You need to bone-up on your Roman history.
worried_in_ca,
I'm in FDRXX also. I feel ok about it. Also in FSBIX. And I'm looking at FDLXX.
am i reading properly that there are 644 visitors here at 11:20pm eastern on a sunday?
has anyone ever studied forward market performance as a function of the CR population count?
Ok, let's try that again,
What if, this deal today was an Arm's length Transaction and JPM only had a buck to spare...The Fed chipped in the other buck
Test..test
doom- remember, it's our dollar but their problem, until there is no more dollar and no more problem! see how life works out?
I've almost always got a tab glued to CR.
Remember, it's only 8:19PM on the West coast.
gaius marius
tomorrow IS a national holiday
Erin Go BraLess!
I bet banker is out there somewhere.
We really need like a double-secret- handshake-password thingie.
This place is out. of. control.
BSC to report Q1 earnings tmr, GS and LEH on Tue. I am curious to see BSC Q1 earnings
gaius marius writes: "has anyone ever studied forward market performance as a function of the CR population count?"
-- I'm telling you, it's the meltdown thingie. Bread and Circuses, and this is the circus part. See, for example, Rome.
China bailed into Bear. But you have to look at it as a lost leader in close to US$1 trillion in foreign reserves.
I was thinking 8000 for the Dow, but no good assumptions behind my guess and definitely no models.
The last high point for the yen/USD was close to 85 yet/USD. The yen has been surging a lot this year. This has to be wiping out carry trades.
BSC has deferred their report
Jillayne - You really think that WAMU is regulated by the Home Loan Bank of Seattle? They are regulated by the OTS and FDIC. FHLBs aren't even regulators.
Tyrone & worried_in_ca,
I'm in the same boat. I don't have the treasury option in my plan. I warned my HR representative (email)about this but was brushed aside. I will sue them to the hilt if i loose money. The Supreme court said it was OK to do that, right?
Japan opens in 5 minutes, pass me some more popcorn...
re carlyle:
"... The Company will now move forward with the winding up and
liquidation application. During a compulsory winding up, all remaining
CCC assets will be liquidated by a court appointed liquidator in a
timely and orderly manner..."
Is Tokyo still out to lunch? I'm calling it a day/night. Europe will be here before you know it.
Wake me if LEH goes under.
I want to find someone that shorted this garbage and get a non-recourse loan at the bar tomorrow.
If your beer isn't green, just look at it with some poor brokers face on the other side of the mug, that ought to do it.
REBear,
When I talk to folks about this at work, they blow me off and say, "I'm in it the for the long-term", unwilling to get out of stock. DUHHHHH
I'm ordering seeds and radically expanding the size of my garden.
Time to take all the money out of my bank account.
I planted some turnips and onions today. But I'd do that anyhow. The cilantro is doing nicely, I still have citrus, and I harvested some plum tomatoes and a few banana peppers. I'm gonna go to Home Depot and buy some more plants.
Even if all the other banks are rosy, that won't stop people from speculating on their demise. The question alone of "who is next" means there will be a next. And then who's after that? No one is safe.
Does anyone remember when a Sunday night at 11:30 pm EDT had about 7 visitors? This is a one-hundred fold increase!
How's that carry trade doin'?
I'm stocking up on bullets and canned food.
liz
HD just sent me a 40% off purchase >$400! Maybe cause I have their credit card
and radically expanding the size of my garden
oooh, wicked pun there !
Me, I hope Golden Schmucks gets its due, soon.
The parade of goofballs -- Rubin, Corzine, Paulson -- makes me wretch.
Exactly a year ago Bear was selling for $145. $145 to $2 in a year. Are there any slopes that steep in Switzerland?
lawyerliz | 03.16.08 - 11:34 pm | #
Wow. Hmm.
I live in Maine. We still have a foot of snow in the yard. I'm going to start peppers and tomatoes inside in a couple weeks. Won't be able to plant them outside until mid-May.
ice stat jim
March Madness, it's not just for Basketball anymore .....
Bear video with statements (lies) from March 15, 2007. Enjoy.
YouTube - Zombie Financial Media: Report on sub-prime fiasco
Are there any slopes that steep in Switzerland?
Jim | 03.16.08 - 11:37 pm | #
The Eiger ?
If all 609 of you(minus the few drunk postes who are always here, I'm looking at you, mp) would just go to bed, maybe this would all just go away.
I am in love with Orel Murrison.
I have been following CR for a couple of years.We had a record count of visitors today,and a record number of comments (320 plus on one thread!).Early August was close with the BSC hedge fund collapse.Thank you all for your comments,following these historic events in real time is fascinating.
After you, ScoProLaw.
This is space coast Florida. Where I have 2 1/2 acres and a paid off house. Hooray for me and the hub. he's getting annoyed with me for staying up.
There's some cows around here too. Maybe I'll do a little cattle rustling'. Just joking.
listening to The Who- Eminence Front after doing a CarBomb with some youngsters-
"people forget"